Old saying here in the Redoubt - It has to warm up in order to snow -and as sure as shooting, it’s warming up and preparing to snow. Banana belt +14 this morning. Potential 3-7 inches of snow in the forecast.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Numerous statements are coming out of Davos of concern to the world.
***
Panels are going to be discussing the mysterious “Disease X” today and tomorrow and how the world should respond to it.
***
Speaking at the WEF 2023 summit, unelected EU technocrat Věra Jourová, threatens Elon Musk with sanctions if the EU’s totalitarian censorship rules are not “complied with”.
“Our message was clear: We have the rules, which have to be complied with, and otherwise there will be sanctions.”
Harvard’s Naomi Oreskes says X is “such a toxic place” with a “scary name” at Klaus Schwab’s WEF.
NOTE - Threat against a platform that has shifted to free speech.
***
Speaking at the WEF, former head of the IMF’s China division, Eswar Prasad: CBDC will be programmable, in a way that will enable governments to dictate how, when, where, on what and by whom they can be spent, including the imposition of expiry dates.
OBSERVATION - Clear outline of the goals for the use of digital currency. For those unfamiliar with the term “ expiry dates”, it is essentially a use it or lose it clause meaning that you cannot save your money, that it must be spent by that ‘date’ or its gone.
***
January 14, 2024 Yuval Harari joined host Steven Bartlett on The Diary Of A CEO podcast last week for a wide-ranging discussion on the future of humanity.
“Are you concerned that Trump might be elected again,” asked Bartlett.
Harari responded, “I think it’s very likely, and if it happens it is likely to be the kind of like death blow to what remains of the global order, and he says it openly. It should be clear that many of these politicians present a false binary vision of the world as if you have to choose between patriotism and globalism… between being loyal to your nation and being loyal to some kind of global government or whatever.”
OBSERVATION - The target on Trump’s back grows with statements like this. NOTE - Some consider Harari to be a lunatic. That is too easy of a label. He is a stone cold WEF right hand of Schwab - carrying a lot of influence. His words have been echoed by many other syncopates of Schwab - so dismiss them at your own risk.
***
Latest buzzword that has made its appearance at Davos.
Farming, fishing and making money etc is now called “Ecocide.”
So basically if you want to live, you’re committing a crime. You are ‘killing ‘ the ecology (and global climate change)
****
WEF digital ID efforts becoming applied here in the US by TSA
TSA will expand the pilot for mobile driver’s license or digital ID at TSA checkpoints from seven to nine states, and from five to six platforms, giving more passengers digital ID options.
Expand the use of facial identification technology with TSA PreCheck®
TSA will expand the use of facial identification technology with TSA PreCheck®, from five to 10 airport locations and from two to three airlines. More passengers may opt for a live facial image to be matched against a temporary gallery of pre-staged photos, improving both verification security and line speed.
https://docs.reclaimthenet.org/hisp-action-plan-dhs-tsa.pdf
OBSERVATION - The continued push for digital and biometric ID being expanded in the US.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
RE the Jan 18 Atlanta protests - Expect them to last thru the weekend. In the past the construction contractor has suffered considerable vandalism of equipment and supplies. Also these Antifa related elements have set booby traps in adjacent parks. Could be a lot of violence coming.
***
See “Illegal Immigration” below as a showdown is developing today between Texas and the DHS.
***
Dozens of pro-hamas protests are in the works around the country. This weekend could be very busy. Recent protests coordinated actions in front of hospitals, particularly those with special children’s wards and care centers.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Chinese scientists affiliated with the military have engineered a lethal mutant coronavirus strain, GX_P2V, with a 100% mortality rate in mice, igniting concerns over the potential transmission to humans.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/coronavirus-wuhan-china/2024/01/16/id/1149829/
OBSERVATION - Could this be the disease “X” the WEF is discussing? A lot of speculation as the discussion in Davos shifts to panels discussing X
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Attention now being focused on New Hampshire.
Illegal Immigration –
A show down is set today in Texas. A strongly worded letter from the Department of Homeland Security to the State of Texas demands access to the U.S.-Mexico border on land seized by the State in Eagle Pass. DHS officials ordered the State to cease and desist its efforts to block Border Patrol’s access in and around Shelby Park “and remove all barriers to access” by the end of the day on January 17 (today).
OBSERVATION - The USSC has not ruled on the DHS emergency petition. The big question is will DHS/Border Patrol force an armed incident. Will the fed govt “nationalize” the TX NG units at the park? Will TX reinforce the NG with TX Rangers? Depending on the path DHS chooses to take, this could be a significant event of constitutional crisis proportions. If the support of TX by the Border Patrol union reflects rank and file, BP officers may well be reluctant to square off in this situation. Would US Fed Marshals or FBI do the same?
As I understand the law, State ‘owned’ lands , the state can tell the BP to pound sand. The emergency declaration makes the park ‘state owned’.
Also, the wording of the order suggests that criminal charges may be made against the TX governor and state officials.
China –
I am not seeing any major military based response to Taiwan’s election rejection of China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russia is moving towards national elections, and putin has no opposition - all those candidates are in prison.
Electrical and heating systems continue to fail across the country, leaving millions without power and heat in the face of severe, sub zero (F) temperatures. Collateral damage from broken water lines is mounting to the millions of dollars range.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 19 of 20 Shahed drones, launched by Russia overnight
Russian army conducted missile strikes with Onyx missiles in Odesa and Bilhorod-Dnistrovsky districts this morning.
Russian attacks around Adviivka have made some minor gains in terrain in recent days, but at heavy cost.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Europe / NATO General –
Against the background of the news about tomorrow’s consideration of the resolution on deprivation of the right to vote in the EU Council, Hungary is ready to unblock funding for Ukraine for 50 billion. - Politico
OBSERVATION - Hungary’s pro Russian leadership has been a sticking point for EU support to Ukraine - wielding its veto authority. Unless Hungary changes its ways, it will lose its vote and the EU will proceed with Ukrainian support that Hungary can no longer veto. Very significant move by the EU.
Pakistan –
The regime in Iran launched a wave of combined missile and drone strikes against Pakistan. Iran claims it is targeting bases of Jaish al-Adl militants near Panjgur in Balochistan.
Pakistan has announced that it considers yesterday’s ballistic missile attack by the regime in Iran against Panjgur in Pakistan an attack on its sovereignty. Pakistan also warned the mullahs in Iran that there will be serious consequences for the attack.
OBSERVATION - Iran went trigger happy the past few days. Iran needs to be careful, Pakistan is a nuclear nation that may have no qualms nuking Iran right back.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense bombing os Khan Younis
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and clearing operations in central and S Gaza. N Gaza is essentially been subdued. Fighting is the fiercest in S Gaza and IDF continues to work its way into the major Hamas strongholds in Khan Yunis.
Residents of Khan Younis in southern Gaza say they have faced one of the most intense nights of air strikes since the start of Israel’s offensive.
Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, has said that the intense stage of Israel’s military operations against Hamas would “soon” wind down in the south of Gaza, including Khan Younis, where it is thought local leaders of the armed group may be hiding.
He said that the military had already switched to more targeted action in the north, where it began its ground offensive.
However, in recent days, the return of Israeli tanks to parts of the north which ground forces had previously left has led some Gazans - who had been planning to return home - to think again.
Israeli military officials have repeatedly warned that the fighting will continue for months.
Some reports that IDF is drawing down its operations in Central Gaza and pulling out at least one brigade sized unit.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
IDF still using the skirmishes to also strike deeper Hezbollah targets key to any major war breaking out.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Confusion in Syria as Iranian IRGC forces fire on ISIS targets in Syria
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
Israeli air strikes killed nine in two areas of the occupied West Bank on Wednesday, and the Israeli military described at least five of the dead as terrorists suspected of planning an imminent attack.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Biden administration was expected to announce plans to relist Houthi rebels as specially designated global terrorists, a US official told Reuters on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - Remember, biden took the Houthi’s off the list from essentially day one of his takeover of the WH.
*****
Reports coming out that commanders and advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the Red Sea.
The U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes in Yemen on Tuesday, targeting four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the Houthis were preparing to launch, according to two U.S. officials
After U.S. forces conducted a preemptive strike on Houthi missiles early today, the militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile against another commercial ship in the southern Red Sea, per 2 U.S. officials. Missile hit but did not sink the ship, no casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Presidential Command Council in Yemen: What Britain and America are doing against the Houthis is “required”
NOTE - This is the internationally recognized govt of Yemen.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Houthi actions against vessels in the Red Sea will continue until the US and allies get serious about taking out not only their capability, but leadership as well.
Iran –
Yesterday, I reported initial reports that the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Erbil targeted the US consolidate. Seems that another location was the actual target.
The family home of Peshraw Dizayee was destroyed, a kurdish businessman and real estate investor was killed alongside 4 members of his family by the Iranian ballistic missile attack on the City of Erbil in northern Iraq. Iran claimed the target was a Mossad spy center.
OBSERVATION - Deliberate, or incorrect targeting inputted into the missiles?
It is interesting that we have a push for digital ID and money to control your every move but it is racist and evil to ask for ID to vote in US elections.
New Snow's so beautiful - you're blessed. Still cold in Florida - high of 58 today - won't be in the 70's until Friday...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
We are seeing from Davos the rise of a new order of global dictators. They haven’t yet reached the level of an Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, or even a Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, but their actions during the wuhan plandemic brought them out of the wood work and into the sun shine. They not only want to bring America into their own view of what the world should look like, but the whole world. And that view is them at the top, with the rest of us here to serve them.
***
At the WEF meeting they now say that countries have to sign up to the WHO pandemic treaty to be prepared for “Disease X”. This is looking to be another PLANdemic of epic proportions.
***
President of Argentina Javier Milei demolished socialism in front of a bunch of socialists at the World Economic Forum. Speaking to the assembled throng he hammered them -
“I’m here to tell you that the western world is in danger and it is endangered because those who are supposed to have to defend the values of the West are co-opted by a vision of the world that inextricably leads to socialism and thereby to poverty.”
“Unfortunately, in recent decades, motivated by some well-meaning individuals willing to help others and others motivated by the wish to belong to a privileged caste.”
“The main leaders of the Western world have abandoned the model of freedom for different versions of what we call collectivism. We are here to tell you that collectivist experiments are never the solution to the problems that afflict the citizens of the world. Rather, they are the root cause.”
OBSERVATION - Some expressed wonder why the conservative newly elected PM of Argentina would go to the pit of snakes that is the Davos confab. He went to plant a truth bomb. The only thing that was missing was his chainsaw.
***
U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry lashed out at a reporter who asked him about his “carbon footprint” at the World Economic Forum’s Davos conference on Tuesday.
“What’s the carbon footprint of these events every single year that you come here? Think it’s worth it? Peasants pay for your crimes?” Avi Yemini asked Kerry.
“That’s a stupid question,” Kerry responded.
A female member of Kerry’s entourage then appeared to shove Yemini, aggressively telling him the interview was over.
“Don’t grab me. You can’t grab us. This is a free society, mate,” Yemini retorted. “We have freedom of the press. Why do you think you’re more important? Your carbon footprint doesn’t matter.”
“I never suggested that,” Kerry snarled. “Nobody ever suggested that. Don’t make up stupid questions.”
OBSERVATION - Lurch can’t handle having the mirror put to his face.
***
Lurch just can’t keep his mouth shut. In a session, he basically states that govts can not stop the WEF climate change juggernaut.
“If you wound up with a different President who was opposed to climate crisis, I got news for you. No one politician anywhere in the world can undo what is happening now...The only issue for all of us is not whether or not we can get or will get to a low carbon, no carbon economy globally. We will. The only question is, will we get there in time to meet the challenge of the scientists in order to avoid the worst consequences of this crisis. That is what is at stake.”
***
WEF acolyte and Harvard professor Naomi Oreskes at Davos issued similar fatwas against anyone standing in the way of the forced de-industrialization of society for the sake of, allegedly, the Earth.
Via TIME :
“It will be crucial to build on the framework established in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act to accelerate the transition to renewable energy. This will include opposing infrastructure that will lock in fossil-fuel energy for decades to come and carbon capture and storage projects that are adjuncts to fossil-fuel production. It will also be crucial not to allow new forms of denial to take hold. We are already seeing examples, such as the false claim that off-shore wind kills whales and that restrictions on gas stoves are the latest excuse by liberals to control our lives and deny our freedom. Scientists will have to work with climate activists to block the spread of such misleading narratives”.
OBSERVATION - Once again, control of free speech and criticism of the ‘narrative’ are key points of order from the globalists. They will spare nothing to jam their agenda down our throats.
***
Trump announced at a campaign rally that he will prohibit the Fed Reserve from establishing a CBDC during his term.
***
Lurch’s daughter took up the climate change theme -
“We have to phase out fossil fuels, because this is a crisis of burning fossil fuels.”
Speaking on a panel at the WEF’s annual Davos summit, John Kerry’s daughter, Vanessa Kerry, attempts to paint the “climate crisis” as a “health crisis”, going on to express concern that the UN Agenda 2030 sustainable development goals are “losing progress”.
“2023 was an apocalyptic year in terms of extreme weather events... That is about to get worse.”
OBSERVATION - More fear mongering, however, it lays the foundation for globalists to push the agenda (see censorship above) and foment potential global orders to force compliance. Note that climate change is defined as a “health” issue, permitting the WHO to potentially go after it once the pandemic treaty has been modified.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Showdown in TX continues. Texas AG Ken Paxton responds to threats from DHS—
“According to your letter, ‘the U.S. Constitution tasks the federal government with… securing the Nation’s borders.’ When were you planning to start?”
“Your letter misstates both the facts and the law in demanding that Texas surrender to President Biden’s open-border policies. Because the facts and law side with Texas, the State will continue utilizing its constitutional authority to defend her territory, and I will continue defending those lawful efforts in court…”
OBSERVATION - How far is the biden/DHS going to go to push this fight? I think the globalist cause - replacement of the US population - will drive the issue and biden regimen will go to the mat on this one. The outstanding question is will they resort to force of arms to gain control of the park? Such an act could well trigger state wide push back on federal officials. TX is already favorable to dissolving its link to the country (TEXIT) and such a conflict may trigger TX patriots and militias to form and mass on border crossing in support of the state - triggering more potential armed confrontations with DHS/FBI/ BP.
Given the govt track record so far, resorting to an armed conflict with TX NG and TX Rangers is definitely within the envelope of probability at this stage of the game.
RELATED - Texas DPS is now rounding up and arresting illegal aliens who are caught invading in Eagle Pass. This comes just one week after TX seized Shelby Park in Eagle Pass from federal authorities.
***
Fed govt surveillance state continues to consume more and more data once thought to be private and only accessible via court orders. Now the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government has revealed that the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the United States Department of Treasury, urged financial institutions in the wake of January 6, 2021 to look through customers’ transactions, using search terms like “Trump” and “MAGA”
The letter from the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Government and the Committee on the Judiciary have obtained documents indicating that following January 6, 2021, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) “distributed materials to financial institutions that, among other things, outline the ‘typologies’ of various persons of interest and provide financial institutions with suggested search terms and Merchant Category Codes (MCCs) for identifying transactions on behalf of federal law enforcement.”
OBSERVATION - As you work your way thru the article, it becomes apparent that the Stasi would have loved to have the capabilities the govt has today to intrude on our privacy. A lot of people say things like ‘get off the internet’ or use burner cell phones, etc to avoid surveillance. Folks, they have a bazillion ways from Friday to surveil us. Sorry to say that those who go off line in these ways could likely trigger a flag that suggests to the feds you are trying to avoid monitoring - thus increasing their attention using the many multiple other ways.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The FBI has arrested a 56-year-old Cottage Grove woman accused of making threats online to harm Jews and Black people in posts displaying a Nazi flag and multiple guns.
Elizabeth Ballesteros West, who was found with a cache of guns and has been diagnosed with bipolar disorder, was arrested Friday and is being held in the Lane County Jail, according to federal agents and court records. She [sic] has not yet made her [sic] first appearance in federal court in Eugene.
OBSERVATION - The number of “transitioned” individuals either committing or planning to commit mass murder has skyrocketed over the past few years. Add one mental instability onto another and Trans are turning deadly.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
House Speaker Mike Johnson said he will push for tighter border security during his meeting with President Joe Biden on Wednesday, signaling that legislation to send more aid to Ukraine is not possible without a deal.
“Before we even talk about Ukraine, I’m going to tell the president what I was telling all of you and what we told the American people: border, border, border,” Johnson said Wednesday. “We have to take care of our own house. We have to secure our own border before we talk about doing anything else.”
Republicans in Congress have blocked emergency funding that Biden has requested for Ukraine and threatened to force a partial shutdown of the government in an effort to tighten security along the U.S.-Mexico border; they blame Biden’s policies for leading to an influx of immigrants into the United States.
OBSERVATION - Republicans have the leverage with the immigration crisis on a public opinion angle. However, even if an “agreement” takes place favorable to border security first - guess what - biden will move the goalposts and likely blow off the agreement or redirect the funds to settlement rather than closing the border.
RELATED -
Chuck Schumer just stated that the Democrats won’t fund border security until they get billions more for the war effort in Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
Rumors that Sen McConnell in backroom meetings is concerned that Trump will be elected and is seeking ways to pass a massive amnesty bill before the inauguration.
***
See CW2 for TX response to DHS threats.
China –
According to Newsweek, China’s stock market “appears to be in free fall now”…
The FTSE China 50 index—a real-time tradable index comprising 50 of the country’s largest and most liquid stocks—has plunged by 1.77 percent between Monday and Tuesday as part of a long-term large decline over the past six months. Compared to one year ago, the index is down by 29.24 percent.
China’s market regulators have tried to stabilize the market by imposing restrictions that stop some investors from being net sellers of equities on certain days. This strategy—with authorities offering what’s known as “window guidance” in an attempt to help the country’s stock market bounce back—was first introduced in October.
https://www.newsweek.com/china-stock-market-free-fall-1860933
OBSERVATION - This growing level of financial losses will be a serious drag on Xi’s goals of beefing up the military and any associated action against Taiwan - primarily the invasion option. People have gotten a taste of capitalism and like it, and now losing market gains is biting them. Xi is increasingly swinging toward Maoist principles to bring the people back under communism in all aspects, but it looks like a very hard landing is coming.
North/South Korea –
Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, intelligence experts with over 50 years of studying and observing NK suggest that in 2023, Kim turned a corner and is now actively preparing to go to war against SK, US and even Japan. In part, they see Kim infatuated with Russia and its war in Ukraine, plus the abysmal state of US foreign policy as an opportunity to move forward by war.
https://www.38north.org/2024/01/is-kim-jong-un-preparing-for-war/
OBSERVATION - Clearly, the NK threat has evolved seriously since the years of the Soviet Union and the cold war. My intel briefings on NK were full of apocalypic scenarios of massive artillery strikes on Seoul, special ops flying in by antique biplanes and a massive ground force supported with the newest (at that time) armor.
The implosion of the Soviet Union and global changes put NK on the outside. No longer receiving lots of support to maintain its status as a Soviet pawn threatening US interests in Asia, its military fell into disrepair as well as its economy. Kim has managed to scrape together other allies, like Iran, to help fund modernization of its military -the biggest star being the development of thermonuclear weapons (H bomb) as well as development of a wide variety of missiles, short ranged to ICBM, to potentially carry warheads. This effort still hasn’t addressed modernization of its ground or airfares, who’s equipment is increasingly unreliable or vastly obsolete. War on the peninsula would be ugly, made more ugly by the potential use of nukes against the south, Guam and even Japan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
GPS signal disruptions were reported over Poland, with significant disruptions in Piła and Konin, and moderate in Poznań. Similar incidents occured in Finland and Estonia. According to John Wiseman from gpsjam, it could be a deliberate Russian jamming attempt or a military exercise. Russia has jamming systems within range in the Königsberg region.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 of 33 Shahed drones
Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down drones over Moscow and Leningrad regions
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
There has been a great video that has gone viral of a M2 Bradly using its 25mm Bushmaster gun to tear apart a Russian T-90. Though its armor generally protected it, the volume of fire and unprotected others items, like sights for the gun and driver - were toast. Eventually the Bradly got an engine hit and the tank taken out.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US redesignated Houthi as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist”
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli media reports this morning that the Hezbollah militants had officially notified the US mediators that they reject the ceasefire with Israel plan that was proposed by the US.
The Israeli army announces that its losses in the Gaza battles have risen to 192 soldiers
***
The Biden administration is trying to lay the groundwork for the establishment of a Palestinian state with Israeli leaders and representatives of civil society, expecting a future post-Netanyahu government: “He will not remain there forever.”
“We have today a profound regional opportunity in the Middle East that we did not have in the past,” said Blinken during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “The challenge is to realize it.” When asked if Netanyahu is the right prime minister to seize this opportunity, Blinken responded that “these are decisions that Israelis need to make” and added, “We are at a turning point.”
In an attempt to bypass Netanyahu, Blinken also separately met with members of the diplomatic security cabinet and other Israeli leaders, including opposition leader Yair Lapid, during his visit to the Middle East.
OBSERVATION - biden’s regime is the most anti-Israeli group since 0bama. Deliberately going behind Netanyahu’s back during a time of war to push for the “Two State” solution and to leverage him out of power is pretty low. The “Two State” solution has been offered something like 5 or 7 times since Israel became a nation once again - every time rejected by the arabs. You cannot co-exist with people who actively seek your total annihilation. Pressures are coming globally to try to force that ‘solution’ on Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and clearing operations in central and S Gaza. N Gaza is essentially been subdued. Fighting is the fiercest in S Gaza and IDF continues to work its way into the major Hamas strongholds in Khan Yunis.
Israeli military has repositioned, after several weeks of withdrawal on the outskirts, deeper inside Gaza city. A while ago, Israeli vehicles entered Rimal neighborhood
Intense fighting and IAF bombardment of Khan Yunis overnight as IDF continues to contact the hamas controlled areas of the city.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
5 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards the Al-Manara settlement in the Upper Galilee
Israeli Chief of Staff - The possibility of war with Lebanon has become greater than before, and the army is increasing its preparedness
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
Israeli forces arrest 50 Palestinians in the West Bank overnight.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemeni Foreign Minister to Al Arabiya Net - Washington returning the Houthis to the terrorist list is a serious step to hold them accountable.
The US designates the Yemen’s Houthis as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” group amid Red Sea attacks. Stops short of “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO) label, as some in Congress has advocated but which aid groups said would hinder their work
Houthi spokesman Muhammad Abdul Salam: The American classification has no value and will not deter us from our positions with Palestine
CENTCOM confirms strikes that targeted 14 Iran-backed Houthi missiles on launch rails in Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. “These missiles presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region and could have been fired at any time”
A large fire was reported in the Dhamar Governorate of Western Yemen following the U.S. strikes.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Returning the Houthis to the terrorist list is an unconstructive measure by Washington and raises tensions
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Action against the Houthi continues to build, with the US conducting preemptive strikes on drone/missile launching sites - particularly those identified as preparing to fire. I suspect drones monitoring these areas closely as there are only so many launching sites available. Same goes for munition storage.
War drums continue as the mental battlespace is being prepared for the eventual showdown with Hezbollah.
Iran –
Sources in the Pakistani Armed Forces are reporting that the Air Force has conducted several airstrikes overnight on a Baloch Militant Group in Eastern Iran near the city of Saravan, roughly 20 miles into the Sistan and Baluchestan Provence from the border with Pakistan.
OBSERVATION - This seems to be the same militant group Iran hit on Pakistani terrain. Curious.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Narco-Terrorist Alert.
A prosecutor investigating an attack on a TV studio in Ecuador last week has been killed, officials say.
César Suárez was shot dead in the port city of Guayaquil, Guayas province on Wednesday, the attorney general said.
It is not clear whether Mr Suarez’s death is linked to his investigation into the TV station attack.
During the dramatic incident last week, masked men burst into public TV channel TC’s studio during a live broadcast and threatened them at gunpoint.
Pictures that were broadcast live on air showed journalist Jose Luis Calderon pleading with the gunmen, while station staff were forced to sit or lie on the studio floor.
One cameraman was shot in the leg, while another’s arm was broken during the attack, TC’s deputy director of news said.
Local media reports that Mr Suárez was shot while driving near his office. Unverified footage on social media also shows a vehicle with bullet holes in the window.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68014040
OBSERVATION - The level of violence is down from last week, however, there are still plenty of nacro-terrorists out there to accomplish assassinations of opponents or other threats.