Wild night - see more under ISRAEL.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Markets and economists are looking forward to the Sept Fed meeting with strong expectations of a significant rate cut.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Kamala Harris by 3 points in a national head-to-head battle, bolstered by a bump from independent voters, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday.
Trump leads Harris 49% to 46%, according to the survey.
In the 6-way, Trump’s lead among independents is 9 points, 48% to 39%, with Kennedy getting 7% support, according to the poll.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rasmussen-poll-donald-trump-kamala-harris/2024/08/22/id/1177562/
OBSERVATION - The massive polling machines of the left have been working overtime to place trump down by nearly double digits (remember the polls with hillary about the same period of the election cycle). One may argue about Rasmussen’s accuracy, but they are not necessarily one with a track record of oversampling. As I note in my axiom above, polls at this stage are designed by many to influence. Post labor day, the pollsters are generally forced to deal with reality again.
NOTE - this is based on survey BEFORE Kennedy dropped and committed support to Trump, so it is important to watch the migration pattern of the 7% of independents for Kennedy.
***
The knives have come out in force against RFK and his endorsement of trump. Condemnation is also coming from never-trumpers. Must have hit a lot of sore spots.
Biden / Harris Watch –
With the major escalation in the fight between Israel and Hezbollah, biden is on yet another vacation while harris tramps around the country. WHO IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Illegal Immigration –
biden’s resurrection of the ‘stay in Mexico’ policy has apparently lead to a slow down in border crossings. Indicators are that this may not last for long depending on the state of the presidential race. The prospect of mass amnesty may well spike illegal crossings to astronomical levels.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
RUMINT –
Russian tourists in Crimea report that Ukrainian F-16s struck targets in Crimea for the first time ever this morning.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air defense shot down 8 of 9 Shahed drones overnight. Numerous other Russian missile strikes in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine announced the development of a jet-missile drone capable of striking fast and deep into Russia
The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence claimed it successfully struck a field ammunition depot near the village of Ostrogozhsk in Russia’s Voronezh region. The depot contained over 5,000 tons of ammunition, including artillery and tank shells, small arms ammunition, and surface-to-air missiles. Videos released on social media show massive explosions.
Russia continues to press the attack in the Donbas region, clawing out small gains at high cost.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine OPSEC has ramped up again too with a lot of RUMINT from Russian milbloggers that Russian forces are being out maneuvered, cut off and eliminated again.
Outlook —
On the ground, things are pretty much at a status quo, no major actions appear to be pending. RUMINT of a second Ukraine incursion into Russia could change that, but it has been floating around for weeks unacted on.
Russian launching a campaign of ballistic / cruise missiles and drone is still in the cards, but no apparent timeline for such an attack. It has been a considerable amount of time since the last one.
Lastly, if F16s were playing over Crimea, it could mark a signifiant change in the combat there.
Europe / NATO General –
German Bild: Police arrest Syrian from refugee center after Solingen stabbing
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel launched a massive preemptive strike that severely blunted a Hezbollah missile/rocket/drone attack in revenge for retaliation for the death of Fuad Shukr.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israeli government issued a series of new censorship regulations for media that includes the damage caused by rocket attacks to “strategic national infrastructure or to military bases.” Reporters need to refer them to the media office before reporting on them to avoid causing any “harm to Israeli forces on the ground”. “This morning attacks by Hezbollah has the potential to escalate into a widespread, multi-front conflict.” The decree warns
***
RUMINT - Sinwar is reportedly running out of supplies and places to hide and is urgently seeking some sort of cease fire or significant military support from Hezbollah in order to survive.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli security officials told the IDF: Hezbollah planned to launch an attack of hundreds of rockets and missiles towards the center of the country, at 5:00AM. About half an hour earlier - around 4:30AM - the air force’s preemptive strike began, which included about 100 fighter jets that thwarted the threat within minutes, and prevented the broad attack into the country. More than 200 targets were attacked in a short time in southern Lebanon. (NOTE - IAF is continuing to hammer targets in Lebanon)
100-150 (some estimate as high as 250) ballistic missiles were specifically targeted at Tel Aviv. Part of a 6,000 Long-Range Missiles, Rockets, and Drones assault planned by Hezbollah. The preemptive strikes by Israel appear to have destroyed of several thousand missiles and rockets along with the launchers necessary to fire them.
Some of the Hezbollah targets were supposed to be the Kirya, Ben Gurion Airport, and the power station in Hadera, among other strategic and civilian targets.
Hezbollah did manage to fire 200 - 300 rockets towards Israel. Military observers were noting that these barrages were “improvised and imprecise”.
Israel navy intercepted several Hezbollah drones overnight, as it seems that it tried to repeat the Houthis success in their attack on Tel Aviv last month, which came from the sea
Hezbollah says it has completed its response to the killing of the terror group’s military commander Fuad Shukr for today, hinting that further responses could come tomorrow. The terror group claims that the explosive drones it launched from Lebanon flew to their intended targets in Israel. Earlier, Hezbollah also claimed to have fired more than 320 rockets at northern Israel.
Israeli army Broadcasting Authority reports no military bases or strategic targets in central Israel were damaged.
The Israeli army Home Front Command has lifted restrictions issued this morning on the area from Tel Aviv and northward. Restrictions remain in communities along the Lebanon border and in the Golan Heights
Israel is expected to continue heavy ‘preemptive’ air strikes across Lebanon for at least the rest of today.
Lebanese Prime Minister calls for ministerial emergency committee to meet to discuss developments in escalation in the south
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt warns of the dangers of opening a new war front in Lebanon after Israel-Hezbollah escalation, and stresses the importance of preserving Lebanon’s “stability and sovereignty and sparing it the dangers of the region slipping into a state of comprehensive instability”
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’ve repeatedly said that Israeli intel in Lebanon was unbelievable. Based on just the targeted assassinations alone - on nearly a daily basis - Israel has Hezbollah’s number. But they are through and as i’ve indicated, they have likely been very busy locating and categorizing the thousands of Hezbollah sites. Overnight this payed off big.
For Israel to coordinate a preemptive strike of this magnitude, they must have had much earlier warning, to maximize the preemptive strikes and take out the attack before it even got off the ground. 100 aircraft were coordinated time on target - and that takes a degree of readiness/planning. The also must have had a solid intel on the timing of the attack, masterfully preempted with as little as 15 minutes prior to launch.
The fact that IAF nailed the ballistic missiles is key in this mission. They commonly have TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launchers) that are very elusive to find, let alone kill. The first gulf war SCUD hunters proved that out. The lost not only the missiles, but the launchers as well, and Israeli intel negated the historical shoot and scoot operation of those systems. Also dramatically reduces further missile launch capability - no launcher, no capability to launch missiles.
We’ll learn more about Israel’s extended airstrikes ongoing later today/tomorrow.
Bottom line - Hezbollah got caught with their pants down due to poor OPSEC and very likely poor leadership coordination due to heavy losses of senior leadership. They were embarrassed bad.
Iran must be seriously rethinking its retaliatory plans. Hezbollah had the best surprise attack capability and it was quickly neutralized and has suffered severe losses. Israeli intelligence operations are deep within Iran as well and any indicators of an impending attack stands a strong chance of being detected as well. The action against Hezbollah sends the message to Iran that similar can happen to them as well.
Analysis was that Hezbollah would either act alone - or as a first wave that would make Iran’s attack more effective. Israel’s defensive posture has not been degraded and any attack by Iran would be absent the Hezbollah support it counted on.
Looking forward, Israel is poised to enter Lebanon and will sooner or later. Hezbollah’s actions in the coming hours/days may provide that trigger for Israel to do so.
If anything, the failed attack by Hezbollah has pushed Iran’s promised attack back. IRGC Chief-Commander Salami’s assessment (see under Iran below) may have shifted significantly.
Iran –
“You will hear good news about Iran’s revenge,” IRGC Chief-Commander Hossein Salami told a crowd of people during a visit to a border area in western Iran, when asked about Tehran’s long-awaited attack on Israel in retaliation for Ismail Haniyeh’s killing.
***
Head of Khash (Iran) intelligence, was assassinated in front of his house. The Sunni Islamist militant group Jaish ul-Adl has claimed responsibility for this attack. Jaish ul-Adl, which operates primarily in Iran’s southeastern regions, has been involved in various violent activities and is known for its opposition to the Iranian government.
I suspect Israel's NOT promoting people based on sexual kinks like cross dressing... Sounds like things are going well. Thanks for all the work you do Godzilla...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
Global censorship activity is growing utilizing WEF friendly govts in Europe to extend their reach -
- Leftists in the United Kingdom and Europe are doubling down on censorship, calling for the arrest of X owner Elon Musk and the cancellation of the X social media platform to silence opposing views, former White House and Pentagon official Douglas MacKinnon warned Sunday.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/musk-x-censorship/2024/08/25/id/1177819/
- Telegram CEO, Pavel Durov made a critical mistake when he landed his private jet in his home country, France. He forgot that Emmanuel Macron’s France is pretty much a totalitarian state at this point.
He was arrested for alleged offenses related to his messaging app. Not that he personally committed any of those offenses, mind you, but he allowed 1 billion people in the world to use his app to speak freely without any moderators.
France alleges that the lack of moderators to curb misinformation, along with the app using end-to-end encryption that only the sender and receiver can access, has led to criminals using Telegram for all sorts of diabolical activities, including the transmission of child pornography.
So, the billionaire is accused of being complicit in any crimes planned or committed on his platform.
- The crackdown on free speech continues in the United Kingdom as officials use recent rioting to justify a roundup of citizens who they view as “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.” The government is ramping up arrests of those with “extremist ideologies” in the latest wave of arrests. The crackdown includes those accused of misogynist views.
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/08/22/the-united-kingdom-unleashes-crackdown-on-free-speech/
OBSERVATION - Even before the creation of the EU, European nations had a love affair with totalitarism. The WEF draws some of its strongest support today from EU et al. Control of the flow of information is essential to global controls - we saw that in play during the wuhan plandemic - to the extent even where people’s lives and careers were ruined only to find out later that they were right all along.
Take careful note of Walz - free speech is what the govt allows you to say.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Merrick Garland issues a warning to Americans telling them to not “interfere” in the certification of the 2024 election.
OBSERVATION - Warning shot to Americans - particularly trump supporters given that nothing was done to the rioters in 2017 when trump was inaugurated.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
There’s strong and growing evidence that the “next” US recession has begun — or will begin soon. Of course, many economists will remain unsure about it, having not forecasted it, or because they refuse to forecast, or because they don’t believe something’s real until it passes them by (perhaps not even then). Similarly tardy will be the National Bureau of Economic Research, but that’s by design, because it assigns “official” dates to the start and finish of each recession and wants to be sure about the final status of oft-revised economic data before it makes its public pronouncements. Such “back-casting” and even “nowcasting” (offered by the New York Fed) are little help to those who prefer foresight and time to adjust before trouble begins. . . . .
No better, more reliable forecaster of the US business cycle has existed in recent decades than the initial shape of the US Treasury yield curve, and since last October it’s been signaling another US recession that’s likely to begin in 2024. This is important, because recessions have been associated with bear markets in stocks and bull markets in bonds. Moreover, if a recession arrives early in 2024 it may affect the US elections in November.
https://www.aier.org/article/a-recession-the-yield-curve-predicted-again/
OBSERVATION - I recommend readers to the link to the article above. Far too much for me to summarize here. The predictive model of yield reversals has a really good track record. If the trend is judged correctly, the latter half of this year may get pretty dicy economically.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, strengthening the U.S. military presence amid soaring regional tensions.
The announcement, made in a summary of a call between Austin and his Israeli counterpart, represents a shift. The Pentagon had initially deployed the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into the region with a plan to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Quibbling over the ABC sponsored debate, trump is inclined to reject, but may be using it as leverage to force harris back into a Fox sponsored one.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The abundance of 0bama handlers and PR gurus are working to conduct a repeat of the hope and changey theme where feelings predominate over hard core examination of policies.
Illegal Immigration –
Venesulanian gangs continue to expand their control of Aurora CO apartment complexes and jacking up crime in the area.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the upper 80s to mid 90s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
After the USA called all its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately: severe Russian bombings of the city of Kiev with missiles and drones (as well as in other cities), the airport was bombed and people are hiding in the subway stations.
The Russian Armed Forces announced that they had launched a massive strike on critical energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. The attack was the most substantial in many months. 11 Tu-95MS took off from their airbases in Russia Kh-101 cruise missiles from the air space over Caspian Sea as well as Mig-31K. Additionally a submarine, 2 frigates and a small missile boat with Kaliber missiles went out of the base to the Black Sea. Tu-22M3 bombers launched heavy supersonic Kh22 missiles. A further mix of surface to surface missiles were fired.
The Russian missile attack again seems to be aimed at energy facilities in Ukraine. Ukrenergo issued an order to introduce emergency power outages.
A massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine has affected 15 regions, according to Prime Minister Shmyhal.
In Kyiv, infrastructure and private homes were damaged. In Lviv, energy facilities were targeted. Industrial and energy infrastructure in Poltava, Zaporizhzhia, Rivne, and Zhytomyr regions were hit, with damage also reported to residential buildings. In Odesa, four people, including a 10-year-old child, were injured.
Currently, there are reports of 4 dead and 19 injured, with casualties in Volyn, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr regions.
“The enemy launched over 100 missiles and around 100 “Shahed” drones in one of the largest combined attacks, targeting critical civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, there are casualties and significant damage to the energy sector,” Zelenskyi stated.
Ukraine was also busy launching drones to attack targets in Russia. Other than unconfirmed reports of Russia success at shooting them down, little has been heard.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ground operations are pretty much static with Ukraine executing maneuvers likely to improve their positions for defensive operations.
Some analysts estimate that Russia would need to put together a force of at least 50,000 to effectively dislodge Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Included in this would be the requirement for adequate tanks and armor. Many don’t see this force being organized any time soon given the force requirements for the fight in the Donbas.
Ocheretyne -
Continued Russia pressure resulting in minor gains at a high cost of men and material.
Outlook —
****** Note I posted this yesterday!!! - ******
“Russian launching a campaign of ballistic / cruise missiles and drone is still in the cards, but no apparent timeline for such an attack. It has been a considerable amount of time since the last one.”
That’s what secrets and OPSEC is all about, but the clear observation that NON-activity alerts to is equally critical as to actual activity. This size of an attack was overdue but increasingly likely to damage the power grid with the onset of the change of seasons toward winter.
NOTE - The US embassy did alert Americans to leave the Kyiv area due to an impending Russian missile attack, so in some aspects this attack wasn’t a total surprise.
I don’t think the current blitz is over yet. Russian analysts should be conducting battle damage assessment and lining up a new target set for follow on strike(s) in the coming days.
The intensity of the strike was also evident from the few missile capable ships of the Black Sea Fleet puttering out to launch positions and firing for the first time in a VERY long period. Those vessels probably launched from the outermost periphery of their target envelope to avoid detection and attack from Ukraine drone boats.
Belarus -
Belarus continues to build its amount of troops and equipment on the border of Ukraine. Ukraine says Wagner troops have spotted there too
OBSERVATION - The presence of remnant Wagner elements is concerning as they would likely compose the back bone of command and control of the Belarus forces answerable to Russia and not Minsk. Intensive training by Wagner and Russian forces have taken the rag tag Belarus military a long way towards a more effective fighting force. In Russia’s eyes, though, they would only need to be good enough to bog the Ukraine forces into another meat grinder action, shifting Ukraine assets from the Kursk offensive.
An incursion of Belarus troops into Ukraine may give Poland the justification to cross into Belarus.
Poland –
Polish military sources - We are probably dealing with an object entering Polish territory. It was confirmed by radiolocation by at least three stations - said Major General Maciej Klisz, Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces. The incident occurred at 6:43. - The object probably entered Polish space, disappeared after about 25 kilometers (of flight - ed.) on Polish territory - he added
OBSERVATION - Probably a stray Shahed drone.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas reject ceasefire option.
- Conditions between Israel and Hezbollah returning to previous dynamic tension.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s most senior leader, has “dressed as a woman” while hiding among Gaza’s populace during his time outside of the terror group’s tunnel network in the Gaza Strip, the UK’s Daily Express reported on Sunday, citing Israeli intelligence sources.
The New York Times on Sunday, citing American and Israeli officials, reported that Sinwar may have left tunnels in which he had been hiding on a number of occasions over the last year.
Sinwar has reportedly been moving from place to place in the Gaza Strip to stay ahead of Israeli efforts to hunt him down.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-816344
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel took pre-emptive action against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon and that all drones launched against a strategic target in central Israel were intercepted.
He said that the leaders of Hezbollah and Iran should know that the response was “another step towards changing the situation in the north and returning our residents safely to their homes” and that “this is not the end of the story.”
***
Hamas rejects (for the 20th time) Israel’s terms for a ceasefire!
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to strike identified Hamas gatherings and the scattered rocket launch sites.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah is being mocked mercilessly on Arab social media. And the chicken AI memes won’t stop.
NOTE - the chicken memes come from the only reports major damage from the rocket strikes was a chicken coop that was hit.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Hezbollah continues to be humiliated by arab nations. The total failure of their attack should force them to reengineer their plans in a signifiant manner. Nasarallah’s speech yesterday was a complete joke.
Iran still trying to bluster, but is also trying to find ways to back pedal away from their declared retaliatory strike. As I noted yesterday, the intensity of the Israeli strike - based on the incredible level of accurate and time sensitive intel - shows that Israel is likely to launch a similar preemptive strike on Iran. Barring any unforeseen elements, I don’t expect a major missile/drone attack in the near future because of the Hezbollah failure over the weekend.
Another element of delay is the order for two US carrier groups to remain on station in the event of Iranian froggyiness.
For the immediate future, I see Israel resuming the headhunting of Hezbollah leadership and the systematic destruction of their C2 and logistics capabilities in preparation for an eventual ground assault to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river.
Action in Gaza to continue the same - walking Hamas as they come out of their holes with efficient airstrikes and clean up raids on the ground.
Iran –
Iran’s foreign minister again has referenced his country’s planned retaliation over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Abbas Araghchi said late Sunday he made the remark in a conversation with Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani by telephone.
“Iran reaction to Israeli terrorist attack in Tehran is definitive, and will be measured & well calculated,” Araghchi wrote on the social platform X. “We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it — unlike Israel.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hamas-iran/2024/08/26/id/1177863/
OBSERVATON - A lot of backtracking and spin from Iranian mouthpieces after yesterday’s humiliation of Hezbollah at the hands of a vigilant and alert Israel.