Another balmy -26 this morning. Should be the last seriously cold morning for the rest of the month.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky will share a special stage with World Economic Forum (WEF) executive chairman and founder Klaus Schwab on Tuesday to make a guest appearance at the annual gathering of the globalist elites.
OBSERVATION - Seen in part as an effort to garner more supplies and support for Ukraine’s war against Russia, there are likely deeper roots to this impending show at Davos. There are those who believe that the war has been orchestrated by the WEF and associated to weaken Russia and other western nations ability to provide armed opposition to the WEF during the course of its ‘global reset’.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
(NBC). A network of public interest groups and lawmakers, nervous about former President Trump’s potential return to power, is quietly devising plans to foil any effort on his part to pressure the U.S. military to carry out his political agenda.
According to the article, these insiders will go all out “to foil any efforts to expand presidential power,” even if Trump has been given a mandate to do so by the American people.
However, critics say that the plan is clearly part of an effort to have the military override Trump’s constitutional authority as president.
“Never forget this tweet for the rest of your life,” wrote Mike Benz, executive director for Foundation For Freedom Online and former State Department official.
“This is an admitted plan, in advance, for the military to no longer observe the military chain of command. This is military-run government. This is a plan to end civilian-run government,” he added.
OBSERVERS - Commentators are correctly noting that this is nothing short of treason and a coup attempt. God help us if they try this. There are enough leftist, progressive generals in the military that would support such a plan. This is clearly evidenced by Milley’s admission that he would - on his own initiative - have called China to warn of any impending military action against it. Will the rank and file members of the military follow along?
***
Andy Ngo is reporting on X that Portland Antifa members have put out a call to target “zios” (zionists) in public.
OBSERVATION - The Gaza War has given these leftist anarchists a new target for now. Ngo’s coverage of Antifa has been spot on and Jews and any supporters in the Portland and Seattle strongholds should seriously watch their 6.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
“A few minutes ago at the coffee shop, you said you think the Houthis are a terrorist group. I’m wondering, how soon are you willing to designate them as such?” a wire reporter asked.
“It’s irrelevant whether we designate them,” Biden said.
OBSERVATION - The lackadaisical attitude of biden shows a complete lack of concern over the protection of this country or international interests. In a detached manner, his attitude also serves to condone Iran’s support of global terror as the Houthi are established to be a puppet organization of Iran.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy has deployed the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and the remainder of Carrier Strike Group 9 (CSG-9). The CSG departed from Naval Base San Diego on Friday heading towards the Western Pacific; the Roosevelt was expected to deploy within the next few months to replace the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) but it seems this has come much earlier than expected without any kind of announcement or press release from the Navy.
OBSERVATION - I noted that the removal of the USS Ford CSG from the region absent any ready replacement was hazardous. Now with the action against the Houthi heating up and potential retaliatory actions by China over the Taiwan elections, things have just gotten hotter.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Iowa Caucuses ensue today.
***
In a practical confession that the charges against her last week are valid, Fani Willis declared in a church Sunday (!?!) “You cannot expect Black women to be perfect and save the world,” Willis said. “We need to be allowed to stumble. We need grace,”.
OBSERVATION - Book her Dano. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
Texas his holding the line while the regime seeks USSC order to stop them and allow uncontrolled illegals to continue to flood the country.
Meanwhile, NYC mayor Adams claims that illegals released into the country pending courts are legitimate immigrants and deserve same rights as citizens.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said it has tested a new solid-fuel missile fitted with a hypersonic warhead as it continued efforts to develop more powerful, harder-to-detect weaponry. The claim that the warhead was ‘maneuverable’ has not be substantiated by Japan, SK or the US.
The missile flew towards the East Sea, traveling approximately 1,000km (621 miles), with a maximum altitude was at least 50km (30 miles).
OBSERVATION - A maneuverable warhead is the current golden ring countries are reaching for in regards to this technology. Technically, every ballistic missile is ‘hyper sonic”, but the added factor of maneuverability to avoid/mitigate interception of ABM systems while in the terminal phase of their transjectory is the goal. Israel’s Arrow system shows that the maneuverable factor is negated when interception is obtained outside the earth’s atmosphere.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
RUMINT-
Some analysts believe that Russia is preparing air assault brigades to land behind the defense lines of the Armed Forces.
NOTE - Russia lost most of this capability in the early months of the war, with their air assault designed to quickly move TRAINED forces south and capture Kyiv quickly. That assault failed miserably. Since then airborne/air assault forces have been cut up severely in the many battles Russian has thrown them into
Since then, the proliferation of MANPADS and other ADA assets make any kind of overflight by Russian helicopters a suicide mission. Air assault operations by their nature are very risky operations and success must be met by rapid link up with ground forces. The WW2 bridge at Remagen (A Bridge Too Far), is a prime example. Russian armor has shown from day 1 the inability to maneuver that far, that fast. And under current conditions - vastly lower quality troops, training and equipment, such an operation is unlikely.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
BIG loss for Russian’s air force. Overnight Russia AF lost a Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane over the Sea of Azov. It is believed that Russia only had about 9 of these expensive and hard to maintain planes available. May be even less considering that a kamikaze drone hit an A-50 nearly a year ago at an airfield in Belarus. The A-50 is able to detect low flying Ukrainian aircraft at long range and passing on targeting information to the S-300 and S-400 air defense missiles.
In addition a Russian Ilyushin Il-20M SIGINT platform was also hit in the same area and signaled mayday, including the attempt for an emergency landing in Anapa, Russia, as well as the request for ambulances. There is no information that the plane arrived at the destination but even if then it was certainly severely damaged.
The cause for both incidents are still a matter of speculation, but the fact that two valuable Russian birds got hit at the same time and the same region, make enemy fire the most plausible explanation. However, both were out of range even for known Ukraine ADA systems. However, Ukraine did claim have conducted the shootdowns. See discussion below.
Russian ground assaults focused on the Donetsk sector from Adviivak south to Novobakhmutivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Reports coming out that Ukraine disabled more than two dozen Russian missiles with the help of “countermeasures by EW” . Military analysts say that Ukrainian electronic warfare systems have previously been credited with disabling Russian drones, but not missile systems. If this is a valid observation - then Russia’s winter missile offensive maybe facing further degradation.
The loss of Russian A-50 and Il-20M, is factual. What is being questioned is how and why. While Russia seems to have quickly called the loss being due to ‘friendly fire’, it could be to reduce the embarrassment that Ukraine may have found a way to exert force over the Sea of Azov. Currently, no KNOWN air defense assets that Ukraine has has the range to hit these aircraft. But as we’ve seen so far, Ukraine has been very creative using drone technology to extend their influence - just ask the Black Sea fleet. Speculation is that Ukraine could have placed radiation seeking air-to-air missiles (locking onto the aircraft’s radar) on long range aerial drones that could work their way around Crimea and into the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has made it a priority to take out land based air defense radars in Crimea - potentially blinding Russia to this threat.
The loss of the A-50 may well be followed up in the coming days by anther major Ukraine drone/missile strike on Crimea. Many expect the Kerch Strait bridge to be long over due for another attack. Blinding Russia ADA could permit a lot of cruise missiles and drones to penetrate Crimean airspace to target the bridge. Even if the bridge is ‘reparable’ it could be put out of commission for many, many months. Such an action would severely stress the support capabilities to the Russian army and could effectively stop any potential Russian winter offensive plans. It would definitely hurt defensive operations as well. Russia relies heavily on the bridge to supply the southern and southeastern fronts with arms and material.
Finally, loss of the A-50 with the expected soon use of F-16s by Ukraine will further tip the balance away from Russia to Ukraine in many areas. Time will tell if Ukraine is as crafty with the use of the F-16 has it has adapted other western systems for its fight with Russia
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Drone launched at US naval vessel shot down by US fighter jet.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas on Sunday released a new propaganda video featuring three Israeli hostages: Noa Argamani, Yossi Sharabi and Itay Svirsky. It’s unclear as to when the video was taken at this time.
Rough summary of the first 100 days of the Gaza war - 9,000 Hamas members killed, 11,000+ rockets fired into Israel. After 100 days of war, IDF data says dozens of Hamas commanders slain, 30,000 targets struck in Gaza; more than 170 terrorists in Lebanon killed, over 750 Hezbollah posts hit.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and clearing operations in central and S Gaza. N Gaza is essentially been subdued. Fighting is the fiercest in S Gaza and IDF continues to work its way into the major Hamas strongholds in Khan Yunis.
Overnight, intense air strikes targeted the central region of the Gaza Strip
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah Secretary-General - “We have been ready for war with Israel for 99 days and we will fight without restrictions or limits”
Several Hamas officials who were living in Lebanon have fled to neighboring countries and other allies after Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in an alleged Israeli strike, the Kan public broadcaster reports.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis fired an anti-ship cruise missile at a US warship today and was shot down off the coast of Yemen’s Hodeidah by American fighter jet according to CENTCOM.
A missile attack from Iranian backed militias targeted U.S. forces at the Kharab al-Jir base in Syria and the international coalition base in the “Conco Gas Plant” east of Deir ez-Zor Iraq.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
“With its actions, Turkey shows that it’s the executive arm of Hamas” says the Israeli Defense Minister Gallant
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Much of the news seems almost routine over the past few days. Hamas trying to hold its strongholds by their fingernails, IDF systematically eliminating them and their bunker system. Fighting along the Lebanese border appears to have scaled back a degree as well. Retribution for Hamas and Hezbollah senior leaders taken out in Lebanon last week has not appeared in any significant form.
All this to say that things could well change in a moment.
Quick note on the 100 day summary. 11,000+ rockets launched against Israel. It is estimated that Hezbollah has accumulated about 150,000 rockets/missiles for use against Israel. When the S hits the fan in S Lebanon, the rocket barrage Israel could face will be something like they’ve never had to deal with before. OTOH, the fury of Israel’s response will be nothing like Hezbollah has ever experience before as well.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Narco-Terrorist Alert.
Nearly 900 people have been arrested in Ecuador since Tuesday in a national security operation to stop an outburst of gang violence, Ecuador’s presidency said.
The presidency says 94 of the 859 people detained are members of what they call “terrorist” groups.
In a further measure, the Ecuadorian government announced on Thursday that foreigners who want to enter the country from Colombia or Peru will have to provide a criminal record certificate in a measure designed to “prevent and control the entry of individuals who constitute a threat or risk to public safety.”
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa has claimed that 90% of the foreign prisoners in Ecuador are Colombians, Peruvians, and Venezuelans.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/13/americas/ecuador-arrests-suspected-gang-members-intl/index.html
OBSERVATION - Levels of violence seem to be dropping as the military and police crack down. The narco uprising was a show of force intended to deter the govt from clamping down on the drug trade that passes thru the country. Located between two major cocaine producers, Peru and Colombia, drug trafficking has substantially increased over the years.
OBSERVATION - The Gaza War has given these leftist anarchists a new target for now. Ngo’s coverage of Antifa has been spot on and Jews and any supporters in the Portland and Seattle strongholds should seriously watch their 6.
Ping
Late because other stuff came up. Sorry
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Davos confab is ongoing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Iowa Caucuses - Trump crushed the other republican candidates to win by a record amount of votes in all 99 counties. Vivek drops out following the vote and endorses Trump.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
RUMINT-
According to a leak, Russia only has 2 remaining A-50 AWACS planes that are serviceable and combat-ready.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Discussion continues over the two aircraft shot down over the Sea of Azov. Image reportedly of the damaged IL-22M appeared. It was able to land in Anapa but the tail is heavily damaged.
The A-50 AWAC reportedly was carrying a dozen pilots as well as Lieutenant General Oleg Vladimirovich Pchela, commander of the long-range aviation of the Russian Air Force.
Speculation that this was friendly fire has shifted towards a Patriot scenario. The distance from Ukrainian controlled territory to the location where the planes were believed to be is just at or outside of the range of a Patriot MIM-104D/E PAC-2 which has a published range of 160 km (86 nmi; 99 mi). Some are thinking Ukraine devised a way to extend the range enough to reach the targets or received a shipment of enhanced range Patriots.
Further word that a Su-34 fighter/bomber was also targeted that same time frame, but broke and got away in time, just before firing a Kinzel missile.
RUMINT suggests that Russia only has 2 remaining A-50 AWACS planes that are serviceable and combat-ready.
Russian ground forces continue their attacks along a line southward from Adviivka past Donetsk.
Ukraine targeted an airfield near Voronezh with drones overnight.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas threatens Israel after killing two hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas issued a new video on Monday in which it forced an Israeli hostage, Noa Argamani, announced the death of two other hostages who had appeared in another video with Argamani the day before
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and clearing operations in central and S Gaza. N Gaza is essentially been subdued. Fighting is the fiercest in S Gaza and IDF continues to work its way into the major Hamas strongholds in Khan Yunis.
Hamas managed to put together a 50 rocket barrage, the largest since the end of the operational pause. Fired from S Gaza / Khan Yunis region.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
PM of Lebanon Mikati: Our choice is diplomatic and we want permanent stability on the border with Israel
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Aleppo hit by Israeli missiles to intercept Iranian supplied war material for Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
On Jan. 15 at approximately 4 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and struck the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned and operated container ship. The ship has reported no injuries or significant damage and is continuing its journey.
Earlier in the day, at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), U.S. Forces detected an anti-ship ballistic missile fired toward the Southern Red Sea commercial shipping lanes. The missile failed in flight and impacted on land in Yemen. There were no injuries or damage reported.
CENTCOM.
US naval forces also intercepted a boat carrying missiles and components from Iran destined for Houthis.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Freight container volumes through Red sea region have fallen by around 65% from expected values
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Things will continue to escalate with the Houthi’s until constant and consistent pressure and air strikes are applied.
Iran steeped dangerously into a serious escalation with the US with the ballistic missile attack.
Iran –
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps claims responsibility for the attack on Erbil, Iraq saying it destroyed “spy headquarters and the gathering of anti-Iranian terrorist groups in the region with ballistic missiles”. It is believed the missiles to be that at least 6 Fateh-110 Tactical Short-Range Ballistic Missiles were used.
According to U.S. Officials, the ballistic missile attack which Struck near the U.S. Consulate within the City of Erbil in Northern Iraq appears to have been launched directly by the IRGC from Iranian territory.
However, Iranian State Media is reporting that the missile attack originated from the Aleppo in Northwestern Syria and was the longest-range missile attack in Iranian history, with the missiles flying over 1,200km or 760 miles.
Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Air Forces statement - “We bombed the Israeli Mossad headquarters in Erbil, Iraq, with 11 ballistic missiles”
Iraqi sources say the US Consulate was heavily damaged.
OBSERVATION - Waiting to see if the US is going to respond to this attack. biden said he gave Iran a ‘message’ Looks like Iran returned the favor.
Iraq -
Iraq denounced the Erbil attacks, calling them a violation of its sovereignty.
Syria -
Israel Air Force just destroyed IRGC’s weapon shipments recently transferred from Iran to Syria in Aleppo a few minutes ago. Six cruise missiles launched by Israeli fighter jets hit multiple targets in southwest of Aleppo and also the Airport of the city