CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Protesters with IfNotNow blocked off the 405 freeway in West LA yesterday. Numbering around 50 to 100 the caused traffic to be at a standstill as they block cars and other vehicles from entering or leaving. They are demanding that all elected Democrats ahead of the DNC call for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, reject AIPAC money, and call for an arms embargo on Israel.
***
(Forward Observer) According to Bloomberg Economics analysis, the likelihood of violent political turmoil in the U.S. in the next year is only 2.9%, but is the third highest in the Group of 20 nations behind Turkey and Russia.
Bloomberg Economics said it used an analytic approach created by the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force, and found the erosion of democratic institutions and rise of factional grievances in the U.S. have “significantly elevated the risk of internal armed conflict.”
OBSERVATION - Their analysis states “Domestic political violence is likely to be small-scale, individual attacks on other private citizens or individual elected officials. The attempted assassination of former President Trump is a likely indicator of increasing political tensions, and as tensions increase between political factions, more small-scale and interpersonal political violence is likely. This violence is likely to look like political violence during the 2016 election and the 2017 riots. “
I’m not sure I agree with either the study or this analysis. The focal point is the Nov elections. If Trump wins, the probability of violence by the left will skyrocket. If democrats win, violence will mostly be push back on totalitarian efforts to force communism on the nation via many means such as unconstitutional gun seizures, cancelation of free speech and general ‘punishment’ of the right by the deep state.
***
Rumblings from the pro-hamas crowd to cause trouble at the DNC convention because they don’t see the already anti-Israeli harris/walz team being anti-Israel enough! Some elements of the campaign have been targeted by the leftist/pro-hamas elements with disruptive protests.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
More identified islamic terrorists from the various lists have been intercepted at the border.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Yesterday, BoA declared there will be no 2023 recession. Other banks are speaking out now
(FO) CitiBank reported that the rising unemployment rate “is the clearest sign yet that rather than achieving a ‘soft landing’ the U.S. economy is more likely to slide into recession… Restrictive interest rates, fading fiscal stimulus, and exhausted excess savings are damping demand… [These are] precursors to outright layoffs.”
CitiBank FX Research also warned institutional clients to remain defensive in U.S. markets, citing limited upside because market rallies in election years are rare, and September is historically a weak month
JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest advised clients last week that “recession risks have gone up” and that U.S. markets aren’t yet pricing that in.
***
US inflation hits 2.9% in July, a milestone that could permit the Fed to finally start cutting rates.
OBSERVATION - So much of the economy is left out of the equation that it is a joke. Prices continue to be outrageous. Bought a bag of potato chips yesterday - $7.95 for what once was only a couple bucks a few years ago. This is all about a carefully scripted economic “recovery” put forward by the democrats and the powers that be.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
There are currently around 40,000 US troops in the CENTCOM area of operation following the recent surge of military assets and forces to the Middle East. There are usually about 32,000 in the AOR, per Pentagon
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
More rumbling from the pro-jab mob to prepare schools for wuhan-like restrictions should the ‘bird flu’ break out. Much of the suggested actions include a lot of fear mongering among students and parents. They are still predicting a 25-50% mortality rate, although human infections this year have been relatively mild and resulted in no deaths.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Speaking of polls, the axiom above has become even more true of late. Poll after poll touted by the MSM has the least popular VP in history suddenly blowing trump out of the water - even on economic issues. This is a deliberate concerted attempt to discourage the republicans and suppress enthusiasm come election day.
Some have ventured into the internals of some of these polls, particularly those that seem to display a trend and low and behold - these polls oversample democrats by as much as 10% in order to achieve a 4% lead by harris. Now harris is being forced to put forth policies and is attempting to decouple herself from biden (see below) while walz continues to get hammered by his militarily service claims as well as other dark behavior.
***
Harris won’t say it this bluntly in public, but her advisers do so privately: She wants to break with Biden on issues on which he’s unpopular,” the outlet reported. “First up: rising prices. This is part of a highly choreographed effort to define herself — in some cases, redefine herself — as a different kind of Democrat.”
The article went on to say that she “wants to be not-Biden on inflation — arguably the biggest domestic topic of this campaign — by proposing clearer, more urgent solutions.”
The big picture: Harris doesn’t want to be completely defined by the Biden-Harris record, advisers tell us. And she needs some distance: 80% of U.S. adults in Gallup polling say they’re dissatisfied with the country’s direction.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre flat out rejected this idea during Wednesday’s White House Press Briefing.
“When did you guys learn that Vice President Harris wants to distance herself from Bidenomics?” Fox News White House Correspondent Peter Doocy asked.
“Why do you think that?” Jean-Pierre asked.
Doocy cited the Axios report before asking “Can you blame her?”
“Do you know this is the Biden-Harris administration?” Jean-Pierre replied. “Are you aware that this is the Biden-Harris administration? And she is indeed the vice president.”
OBSERVATION - Ouch! Things just got prickly between biden and harris.
***
According to an Axios investigation, the Harris campaign edited headlines and descriptions in Google ads designed to look like supportive news reports from a dozen media outlets, including CNN, The Guardian, NPR, and USA Today. Spokespeople for the media outlets said they were unaware the Harris campaign used their brands in the ads.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris on Friday will call on Congress to pass a federal ban on price gouging as part of her economic platform to lower grocery prices and everyday costs.
OBSERVATION - Price controls, never worked in the past and won’t work here because the root causes of higher prices are not being addressed. Classical communism ploy.
Grocery stores and food producers operate on very low margins, and capping price increases will likely drive those margins lower and lead to shortages. This will act to put smaller, mom and pop stores out of business, while larger chains will be able to endure for longer.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
According to a class-action lawsuit filing in Florida, private background check company National Public Data exposed 2.8 personal records, including Social Security numbers, in a hack earlier this year. According to the suit, National Public Data (NPD) has not notified any affected individuals of the breach.
A hacking group known as USDoD claimed to have stolen the massive amount of private data in April, from NPD, which holds personal information for employers, private investigators and other agencies for the purpose of background checks
OBSERVATION - Personal privacy is totally out the window. Throwing on the conspiracy hat, this is another angle of chaos creation instigated by the global powers that be. What better driving force for a biometically anchored universal ID system.
Illegal Immigration –
NYC migrant crisis costs will crack eye-popping $5 billion on shelters, security and food — amount could double by 2025
The fence was projected to cost not much more than that IIRC.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would step down in September and allow the Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) to choose a new party President. Japan has no general election this year, so the majority party, the LDP, is favored to retain the Prime Minister’s office.
Russia -
*****
Security measures have been intensified in Moscow due to threats of infiltration by reconnaissance and sabotage groups. The protection has been increased in the city center and around the Kremlin, according to Russian media.
Economic Impact –
In Russia, a ban on gasoline exports is being introduced again. In the Telegram channel of the Russian government - “From September 1 to December 31, 2024, a temporary restriction on gasoline exports will again be in effect in Russia. A decree on this has been signed.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
RUMINT –
Persistent rumors of Ukrainian force build up opposite of Belgorod.
Rumors that Russian is stepping Kalingrade of forces to deploy to Kursk
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 Shahed drones overnight
RUMINT - Russian aviation-related Telegram Channel Fighterbomber confirms attacks at Russian airfields overnight, hinting most damage at Savasleyka.
Explosions were reported in Borisoglebsk of Voronezh region
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
***
Ukrainian Defense forces continue offensive operation in Kursk region, advancement about 1-2 kms at different directions since midnight today, mopping-up operation completed in Sudzha town, over 100 Russian servicemen were captured as POWs
Clashes are on the western outskirts of Kamyshnoye village of Kursk region, - Russian military Telegram channel
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims shooting down Su-34 fighter-bomber over Kursk region overnight
A regional emergency situation regime has been declared in the Belgorod Region, with a subsequent appeal to the government commission with a request to declare a federal emergency, said the region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov.
Russian regime authorities have issued urgent evacuation orders to all remaining civilians in the Glushkovsky District (area in green), Kursk Region. It is likely that Ukrainian forces have already crossed into that region.
RUMINT. Leak from Russian observers: Ukrainian forces now also amassing near the border in Kharkiv for an expected assault into Belgorod region.
Leak from Russian intel services: Ukraine is accumulating a large military force in Malaya Rybitsa to attack into Russia’s Belgorod region.
Ukrainian forces in Sudzha also expected to assault from the north.
NOTE - This would be a strategic level envelopment of a substantial number of Russian units.
Outlook —
The drama continues to focus on the Kursk offensive and the stumbling Russian response to it. The Ukraine advance is slowing more due to the amount of terrain captured and a broader front than from the efforts of Russian forces to stop it.
Mentioned before, the Russians have been tossing units peacemeal into the fight and have been getting decimated. Noted before - lack of unified command and control - Russian units are not coordinating their actions. In one instance Russian attack helicopters shot up their own reinforcement column.
Ukraine has been forward deployed with aggressive scout elements who’ve been accurately locating these reinforcing columns, but have assessed their combat effectiveness and slipped in between them in some instances to launch ambushes.
Also evident have been the thousands of Russians surrendering in mass to Ukraine forces. More evidence of poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly motivated soldiers.
An assessment of the potential supporting attack in the Belgorod region suggests such an effort is possible if Ukraine has the forces available to launch it. The current successful continued push on the southeast margin of the salient towards Belgorod reinforces some of the projection. OTOH, this could be a large ruse to cause more Russian forces to be pulled out of its ongoing offensive actions to the south. In that case, Ukraine may have a card up its sleeve to counter attack there.
Ukraine OPSEC has been intense and effective, so much that Russia is very much in the dark. So much so that they are freaked out about the potential for saboteurs in Moscow proper.
Situation can still change rapidly.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The latest, greatest effort for a ceasefire / hostage agreement is set for today. It is likely to fail due to Hamas already announced rejection of many of the terms.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas will not participate in Doha’s ceasefire talks tomorrow, according to a senior official in the Palestinian factions, who was cited by Al-Mayadeen.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar introduced a new precondition for participating in ceasefire talks on Thursday.
He informed foreign negotiators: Hamas will not engage in any ceasefire discussions until Israel ceases fire, BEFORE the ceasefire talks begin.
RUMINT - US provided Tehran names of 10 mossad agents operating in Iran. JPost
NOTE - Many viewing this as an Iranian disinformation plot to split the US from Israel. The US has categorically denied the report
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to hammer hamas cells attempting to regroup throughout gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese Prime Minister: We are determined to stop the war and we confirm our country’s position to strictly adhere to Resolution 1701
Since October 8, Hezbollah has launched more than 7,500 missiles and 200 drones at Israel that killed 43 Israelis, (19 were soldiers), wounded 271, and caused 790 fires which burned 40,000 acres of land.
Otherwise, IDF continues to strike Hezbollah targets throughout S Lebanon as well as conducting drone strikes on leadership.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran has angered its allies, particularly Hezbollah and Hamas, by once again urging caution in responding to Israel after the assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah terrorist Fuad Shukr and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, the Kuwaiti newspaper al Jarida reported on Wednesday.
According to the report, while Iran has recently signaled a willingness to delay its response to Haniyeh’s assassination, a source within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force revealed to the Kuwaiti news outlet that a heated meeting took place on Sunday in Tehran between representatives of Iran’s regional allies and the Revolutionary Guard leadership.
This meeting exposed a significant rift, the report noted, which escalated into a verbal clash and ended with some allies storming out in anger.
According to the source, Revolutionary Guard representatives urged the allies to hold off on retaliation, at least until after the conclusion of hostage negotiations in Gaza, set to end on Thursday.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-814689#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Reports of distention have trickled out in recent days. However, caution must be given this report as Kuwait is hostile towards Iran and this may well be regional propaganda to make Iran look weak and fractured. The hit on Haniyeh in Tehran was a major face loss to Iran and the mullahs may not be sleeping well at night still. I think they see Israel’s resolve to really hit back following the restraint shown after the April missile assault as a major warning, and the political elements are thinking twice. Evidence that the mullah’s are less thoughtful, believing that allah will win no matter what.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The pro-Iranian militias attacked with rockets this evening the US army base in the Conoco gas field in eastern Syria, without damage or casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Al-Asmar observed, “Regarding the situation on the ground, Iran and Hezbollah’s delay in responding to the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr have so far allowed Israel and the US to strengthen their position on the ground and use all means at their disposal.” He added, “A warship has recently arrived in the area. This has allowed Israel and the US to increase their strength and deploy the necessary defense to repel the attack.” Al-Asmar concluded, “As a result, Iran has essentially lost the most significant element in modern warfare, which is the element of surprise.”
***
Cyprus announced that it had completed preparations to receive refugees from a potential Israel-Lebanon war.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Irans apparent insistence on waiting until today’s negotiations on a ceasefire could be the final measure of delay holding back the expected retaliatory strike against Israel. Iran will have essentially no further reason to delay. Time to fish or cut bait is soon to arrive.
The unconfirmed reports of an Iranian restart of development of nuclear bomb detonators (see Iran below) will likely be used by Israel as further reason to strike Iran’s nuclear program. With a successful detonator, only a few weeks is necessary to purify the Uranium to the 90% plus level necessary for a nuclear weapon.
Not noted above, global economic firms like Barkleys, are warning Iran that movement to war with Israel will severely damage its economy, as money necessary for domestic measures will be shifted to military - triggering a new round of uncontrollable high inflation. Of course this will not go over well with an already hard pressed citizenry.
Things can change quickly so keep alert.
Iran –
Iran is planning to resume testing nuclear bomb detonators, reports @IranIntl.
“Newly obtained information shows the Islamic Republic has intensified its efforts to complete the nuclear weapons production cycle.”
OBSERVATION - This is critical. Modern sensors can measure to see if the pressures/temperatures that are created by the detonation devise are sufficient high enough to generate a nuclear fission event - BOOM. This can greatly accelerate Irans development of a nuclear device as well as move it closer to a weapon that can be deployed on one of their missiles. Testing of such a device is much harder to detect than a full out nuclear test. The clock has moved several ticks closer to nuclear weapons being used in the middle east region.
***
A major cyberattack has targeted the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and several other banks, leading to widespread disruptions in the country’s banking system. Initial assessments indicate this could be one of the largest cyberattacks ever against Iranian state infrastructure.
Reports of a widespread power outage in Tehran and several other cities in central and western Iran.
OBSERVATION - Could be evidence of an Israeli cyber attack hitting not only banks but infrastructure as well.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
In celebration of 3 years in power, Taliban held a parade showing off equipment left behind by Biden-Harris regime
Africa general –
We have a new civil war in Libya again. The Libyan House of Representatives backed by UAE/Egypt has ended all of its agreements with Dibaydah government backed by Qatar/Turkey. Both sides have started deployment of their forces for a new war!
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Unconfirmed reports are claiming that over 30,000 international antifa have already arrived in the Chicago area, with approximately 500-850 more arriving each day.
Chicago police reportedly expecting upwards of 100,000 demonstrators.
OBSERVATION - All the warm fuzzies being put out by the harris campaign may evaporate here in the near future. This foreign influx of antifa may trigger local chapters to get bold and turnout as well.
***
The City University of New York (CUNY), the largest urban public university system in the United States, is not prepared for the “potentially dangerous” onslaught of anti-Israel protests that may hit campuses when students return this fall, CUNY police officers warned, reported the New York Post.
“The university is going into this under fire. They have no idea what’s going to happen. There’s no preparation,” a CUNY police officer told the Post, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The officers highlighted last spring’s violent protests across college campuses in response to the Israel-Hamas war as reason for concerns this fall.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/college-campus-anti-israel/2024/08/15/id/1176724/
OBSERVATION - A lot depends on the DNC convention and action between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The American aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln crossed the Singapore Strait Thursday on its way to the Middle East
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
The World Health Organization (WHO) is ordering governments worldwide to prepare to implement unprecedented new lockdowns due to the new mutant monkeypox strain, which it claims will transform into a global pandemic.
The new strain of the virus is much worse than the one seen in 2022, according to WHO officials.
The virus is also reportedly “spreading” without any sexual contact. Business Insider reports the virus can also spread without any sexual contact at all.
It began spreading through sexual transmission, via the local sex work industry, according to the researchers. However, they said the new virus has also spread within households, between mothers and their children, and there have even been cases of person-to-person spread outside households and without sexual contact.
OBSERVATION - The WHO is desperate to come up with some sort of pandemic boogyman by this fall.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates ???
FoxNews Sept 4th (dropped by harris)
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Anyone else feel like they need to shower after viewing the massive pro-harris media blitz by the MSN?
The cover up continues. The FBI secretly released would be Trump assassin, Thomas Crooks’ body to be cremated before Rep. Clay Higgins could examine it.
OBSERVATION - These acts by the FBI scream coverup.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Unconfirmed reports that green conscripts - absent any combat training, are being shipped to Kursk in mass.
OBSERVATION - Deployment of completely green conscripts is evidence of desperation by putin.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 Shahed drones and 2 drones of unknown type. Ukraine drones / missiles also hit several targets in Crimea.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.
***
Ukrainian military presence reported in Vyazovoye village of Belgorod region
Russian military bloggers reporting another Russian military column could have been destroyed near Korenevo
The mayor of the city of Lgov in the Kursk region, Alexey Klemeshov, advises the people who left the city not to return until the situation improves
Russian Defense Minister Belousov demanded that he should be provided with “truthful” and “up-to-date” information from the Kursk region, where Ukrainian Armed Forces units have entered, as well as from other Russian border regions
Ocheretyne front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Serhiivka village in Donetsk region of Ukraine. Russian forces are pressing to expand the flanks of the salient and taking ground.
Outlook —
The Kursk offensive continues to slow, less to Russian efforts but more due to Ukrainian forces reaching their maximum capabilities of their forces.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov’s demand for “truthful” information indicates that classic Russian happy face battlefield reports are working up the chain, deflecting criticism of lower echelons. This further adds to the fog of war the Kremlin is facing.
It does appear that Russia has designated a general to coordinate the Kursk defense, but that still isn’t helping the lack of command and control of the hodgepodge units being thrown into the fight.
On the Ocheretyne front, Russia is having some success pressing southward out of the salient. This is open terrain that has somewhat poorer Ukraine defenses. When Russia comes upon a town/city, they face the typical meat grinder Ukraine defenses. Ocheretyne front seems to be exempted from releasing forces for Kursk.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More talks on ceasefire and hostage releases.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
British and French Foreign Ministers Arrive in Israel in an effort to dissuade Israel from striking Hezbollah and Iran, in addition to accepting a ceasefire plan for Gaza.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesman: The meeting of mediators to end the war on Gaza, held in Doha, is ongoing and will resume today, Friday
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army issues a new evacuation order for Palestinians in north Khan Younis and east Deir al-Balah, and has further reduced the boundaries of the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone. This is due to Hamas continuing to fire rockets from within refugee camps.
IDF has destroyed about 50 tunnels in the Philadelphia corridor region. The military did not detail how many of the tunnels crossed into Egypt. Tunnels along the Philadelphia Corridor are believed to be used by Hamas for smuggling arms into the Strip.
Air and artillery strikes throughout Gaza over night. More than 30 Hamas sites, including booby-trapped buildings, tunnels, and weapon depots, were targeted in airstrikes across Gaza, according to the military.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah and IDF exchanged fire overnight. Israel stuck targets throughout S Lebanon with artillery and air attacks.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Growing unrest between Jews living in the West Bank and palestinians. Israeli security forces continued raids to arrest terror suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Abdul-Malik al-Houthi: Our response to the Israeli attack on Hodeidah is coming, and U.S. efforts to contain it have failed
The US has announced that it has imposed sanctions on the trading networks of Hezbollah and the Houthis.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The ceasefire / hostage talks are not likely to go anywhere today. Hamas is issuing new demands that are clearly unacceptable to Israel. With the collapse of talks, the likelyhood for a Hezbollah / Iran strike grow.
Hezbollah has been ready for weeks now. Iran continues to appear to be dragging its feet on the attack. Israel’s threat to take out Iran’s nuclear program in addition to its vulnerable oil infrastructure may well reside in their planning.
I know I’ve been saying this for some time now, but both can launch strikes at any moment. WIth the Doha talks spinning apart, the likelihood for a soon strike grows.