FYI, I won’t be posting this Friday as I will be attending a special event here in the Redoubt. Unlikely to do anything Saturday either - unless all heck breaks loose as I’ll be getting home very late Friday night/Saturday morning and trying to catch up on my sleep.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Columbia University group “Students for Justice in Palestine” has just posted on their Instagram account that they are “fighting for the total eradication of Western civilization.”
OBSERVATION - This group strongly affiliates with the rhetoric of Hamas/Hezbollah hybrid with socialism. I don’t see any near term threats such as a repeat of the campus takeover attempts, which this group was partially responsible for organizing and executing. This manifesto is likely driven to try to stimulate renewed interest in the ‘struggle’.
As Elon Musk and others say “People should believe them when they say this”
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
In a stark warning, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency is alerting all field offices that Iran or its proxies may try to transport “operatives, money or materials” across the southern or northern U.S. borders to conduct a terrorism attack against Americans, according to an agency memo obtained Wednesday by Just the News.
OBSERVATION - Many of those teams are already here.
***
Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna have been canceled after several suspects were arrested for planning Islamic terrorist attacks.
Reports that the suspects are affiliated with ISIS.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Reading rumors that there may be another baby formula shortage in the offing. If you have little ones on formula, I’d recommend you purchase extra and stock up now or we could see a repeat of 2022’s empty shelves.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US military assets continue to shift in support of efforts to deter Iran from executing an attack on Israel.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
WHO raising red flags over Monkey Pox again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
US Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris met with two Arab Americans leading the Uncommitted National Movement, who asked her to consider an arms embargo on Israel, at a campaign stop in Michigan, the New York Times reported.
Just before her rally, Harris met with Abbas Alawieh and Layla Elabed, who, according to the report, “wanted to support her but... wanted her to consider an arms embargo.” In response, Harris indicated she was “open to it” and introduced the two community leaders to her staff.
The Harris campaign said in a statement that only “in this brief engagement” did Harris “reaffirm that her campaign will continue to engage with those communities,” NYT reported.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-813817
OBSERVATION - Harris’ growing move to go even further left threatens the democrat Jewish base with being tossed under the bus. Already Walz is known to be anti-semitic and harris’ dumping of Shapario for VP has raised a lot of hackles in the more moderate wing of the party. Her ‘noncommittal’ statement shows she’s leaning that way but isn’t quite ready to cut all the cords to the jewish lobby in the democrat party.
***
Democrat pollsters are cringing at some of the numbers Walz is bringing with him in a negative manner. Stolen valor and his uber-socialist views, along with his pro BLM actions in 2020 (really, who lets their wife keep the windows open so that she can savor the moment). Those items are going to wear the ‘enthusiasm’ for the pair down quickly.
In the poll, released Tuesday night, 35% of registered voters said they were unsure about the choice, while 35% said Walz was a good pick and 16% said he was a bad pick, according to YouGov.
***
Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris and the Democratic National Committee “gut-punched” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro by rejecting him as a vice presidential candidate because of his support of Israel, Rep. Dan Meuser said on Newsmax on Wednesday.
“They very deliberately brought him right up to the gate and then slammed it in his face, so it was quite an insult,” the Pennsylvania Republican said on “Newsline.” “Most of Pennsylvania believed it was going to be Josh Shapiro.”
Meuser said there were a “few reasons” for the decision, but that Harris and the DNC could not approve Shapiro, who is Jewish and “strongly supportive of the state of Israel.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/dan-meuser-pennsylvania-kamala-harris/2024/08/07/id/1175612/
OBSERVATION - PA is in play and will this hurt the dem’s chances at keeping it blue, as well as disenfranchising the more moderate, Israel supporting flank of the party as well?.
Biden / Harris Watch –
JD Vance walked up to Kamala Harris’ plane to ask why she’s hiding from reporters.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
RUMINT –
More and more Russian channels are starting to worry about a new Ukrainian operation into the Bilhorod region besides what is happening in the Kursk region.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The state of emergency has been introduced in Kursk region. Military action is dynamic and situation changing rapidly.
Below are links to a couple maps that depict Ukraine’s incursion into Russia - they are already out of date.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUYb1MqW4AAE3Qv.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUaMPCVXAAAgc3-.jpg
Russian Telegram rumors so far today — none of it confirmed, but gives you a sense of the chaos: According to RU sources, Ukraine took control over: Gornal’, Guevo, Kurilovka, Oleshnya, Rubanshchina, Honcharivka, Lebedevka, Aleksandriya, Leonidovo, Zelenyi Shlyakh, Tolstyi Lug, Luybimovka, Pokrovskii and Obukhovka. Russian reserves pouring into Kursk. Something shot down, maybe an Su-34.
All the Rosgvardia men at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant are gone to fight, leaving only the women at the facility.
Sources are reporting that Russian aviation accidentally bombed their own soldiers attempting to leave the town of Sudzha.
The Ukrainians report 300 Russian soldiers captured in Kursk Oblast. 350 km2 captured.
Ukrainian equipment appears to have a new battlefield tactical signs for the offensive in Kursk, another indication this has been a large planned incursion then previously thought.
Multiple Russian military bloggers claim Sudzha is not under control of Russian forces anymore. Unconfirmed Reports from locals that a Ukrainian flag has been raised in Sudzha over the police headquarters.
The stations at the Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel stations in the Kursk region are temporarily closed to passengers, - Russian Railway company reports
Internet resources of the Kursk region were subjected to a massive DDoS attack, many services were down and temporarily unavailable - regional authorities
West of Avdiivka, Russian advances continue. Vesele has been taken over and also visual confirmation of Russians inside Serhiivka has been confirmed. Ukraine has definitely not stabilized this direction, leading to Russia capturing more and more villages.
Confirmation that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of the canal district of Chasiv Yar and across the canal.
Outlook —
All heck continues in Kursk province. As this operation unfolds some more details have come out.
- Size wise, the Ukraine force is roughly equivalent to a NATO Corps size element, with 3-5 mechanized and tank heavy brigades.
- The major units involved are experienced, combat hardened elements and mech heavy in organization. This is in contrast to the largely green forces in last summer’s southern offensive.
- Special invasion markings indicate this has been planned for a while
- The efforts to gobble up terrain indicate this is more than just a raid, but a long term occupation.
- Russia was caught completely with their pants down. The Ukraine forces blew through two defensive lines with essentially no resistance.
- Ukraine using new tactics to counter Russian attack helicopters - FPV drones - and being successful.
Noted yesterday, this operation will substantially cut off logistics routes to Russian Group North forces - particularly in the Kharkiv sector. Ukraine forces overnight have been expanding the flanks of the salient while it appears that recon elements have penetrated even deeper than the main force into Russia. The immediate tactical goal of the operation appears to be to control the highlands in the region and choke off Russian logistics.
Fog of war kicking in on whether or not a similar offensive action towards Bilhorod is in the offing. I think there is a fair possibility .
This operation may well explain why forces have been limited in the Ocheretyne sector - possibly and economy of force operation - so that forces would be available for this strike.
Even before this operation, analysts were viewing the Russian offensive running out of steam, with likely only a couple more months of effectiveness before running out of steam. This action will put Russian forces in theatre under greater stress. With Russia concentrating in the Donbas region, any reinforcements have to be swung from this region - meaning a long march and a lot of work just to reach the battle. Ukraine has the advantage of internal lines of communication while Russia has to go all the way around just to get there. Another Russia option would be stripping other units closer to the fight, but then exposing them to the same lighting strike by Ukraine forces.
Right now, the unconfirmed reports from Russian milbloggers are that Russian is throwing units into the fight in a piecemeal manner - risking defeat in detail. Even throwing some residual Wagner elements as well as Chechen forces (who reportedly ran away at the first gun shots).
Besides the terrain, Ukraine may seek to circle back and entrap Russian border units. This is plausible given the poor quality units revealed by the offensive.
This action by Ukraine caught just about every one by surprise, especially the US as Ukraine did not inform us of this plan (and good for them). Ukraine has a lot of fight left in it and a bold, thought out plan like this is working.
Europe / NATO General –
Croydon, London, severe riots by Muslim militias tonight, looting and rampage. The police do not usually intervene when it comes to Muslims.
OBSERVATION - Armed moslem militias have taken over the streets in many towns in England. Meanwhile, the govt proudly announces the social media crackdown of anyone posting (or reposting) a mean message. Unarmed peacefully protesting Brits are being beaten down by police - while moslems continue to assault. This is societal self destruction. Deliberate and dastardly.
RELATED - Australia, India, Nigeria, Malaysia, and Indonesia have issued travel warnings for the United Kingdom in response to the ongoing riots.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Waiting and watching game continues
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Newly appointed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to avoid attacking Israel. Pezeshkian allegedly warned that an escalation could devastate Iran’s infrastructure and cripple the economy.
He also reportedly highlighted the risk of deepening citizens’ discontent and potentially leading to Iran’s collapse.
Khamenei was supposedly noncommittal during the meeting.
Source: Times of Israel
****
Israel informed the U.S. that if Hezbollah targets Israeli civilians in its retaliation, the Israel Defense Force will respond with disproportionate and overwhelming force
As reported by CNN, U.S. Defense and Intelligence Officials have stated that while some preparations have been complete since Iran’s original attack against Israel on April 13th, such as the deployment of ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems; there are several other unstated preparations that would need to be made by Iran before another attack against Israel, that have not yet been observed.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Artillery and air strikes throughout Gaza. Heaviest appear to be in the Khan Younis area.
IDF confirms: senior Hamas terrorist Narl Sakhl was eliminated in an IDF strike in Gaza on July 24.
According to the IDF, Sakhl was involved in directing terror attacks in the West Bank, including financing and supplying weapons to terror cells.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah infrastructure, rocket launching sites and ammo storage area throughout S Lebanon.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Eyes still monitoring for the expected missile strikes from Hezbollah and Iran.
I was reminded that it took Iran about 3 weeks to prepare and execute the April attack. While Iran left a lot of preparations in place, there are still a lot of things that have to come together as well.
The Iranian ongoing war game may well serve a a cover for the final deployment of assets necessary for the israel strike.
Hezbollah, OTOH, is capable right now of launching an attack and there is a lot of rumor that they are getting impatient with Iran and may go it alone. It has a store of 150,000 rockets and missiles, many of which are ready to fire in hidden, underground bunkers. While Hamas was able to launch over 3000 rockets in the first day of its Oct 7 attack, Hezbollah has the capability of launching far, far more. Their ground assault capabilities have been hurt in the tit for tat exchanges with Israel, so no massive surprise ground raids/assaults a la Oct 7 are expected. If they try, Israel has a massive build up of ground forces that would crush the Hezbollah forces.
So what is the game plan? Tons of speculation continues. Current analysis indicates that it will be a multi day assault in multiple waves. If Hezbollah launches first, the massive attack would give Iran some cover to make its final preparations and launch from Iran.
Further delay comes with growing threat that Iran’s plans - particularly cruise missiles and drones - will be stymied by a coalition of air forces like last time. More western (principally US) air force assets continue to pour into the region.
Hezbollah’s massive rocket capabilities will likely be able to locally overwhelm Israel Iron Dome systems and inflict some severe damage. US air craft and missile defenses on naval vessels are not capable of targeting these short ranged weapons. Longer ranged, more sophisticated ballistic missiles launched by Hezbollah could be intercepted by US missiles or Israeli Arrow systems.
Israeli response - in their words “disproportionate” I think any respect for biden or the US is out the door right now and he carries less influence than ever. I don’t think Israel will just pop an Iranian SAM site and call it good this time.
The region waits while Iran and Hezbollah continue to beat their chests and prepare for their attack.
Iran –
Iranian media in Iran is reporting that the military exercise has begun, and the guidelines on restrictions in certain areas in the west of the country have come into effect.
Joint exercises of the army and the Revolutionary Guards will be conducted in the western and central regions. The Iranians announced that the exercise will last three days and will include the launch of ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles as well as UAVs.
OBSERVATION - See Israel above. These exercises are likely being used as cover to move weapons and prepare launch systems for the expected strike against Israel. It is likely designed to better prepare their air defense elements for any Israeli counter strike.
Syria -
Clashes reported between the Syrian Army, tribal groups, and the U.S-Backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) having escalated overnight in Northeastern Syria near the City of Deir ez-Zor, with Pro-Government forces reportedly coming within 100 Meters of American Troops located at MSS Green Village in the Al-Omar Oil Fields.
Mexico -
A U.S. judge on Wednesday dismissed much of Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit seeking to hold U.S. gun manufacturers responsible for facilitating the trafficking of firearms to violent drug cartels across the U.S.-Mexico border.
U.S. District Judge Dennis Saylor in Boston dismissed claims against six of the eight companies Mexico had sued in 2021, including Sturm, Ruger, and Glock, citing jurisdictional problems.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mexico-sturm-ruger/2024/08/07/id/1175621/
Venezuela -
The Venezuelan Armed Forces released a statement on Tuesday ratifying its “absolute loyalty” to socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro, whom it claims was “legitimately re-elected” in the July 28 sham presidential election.
The statement was released in response to a document that opposition leader María Corina Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González published on Monday that called for the Venezuelan military to stop repressing protesters and stop Maduro’s efforts to stage a coup by refusing to recognize his defeat in the election.
OBSERVATION - This is a real world example of the saying “You can’t vote your way out of socialism” Maduro has re-secured the military’s support and is increasing arrests of opposition. The window for a successful overthrow is rapidly closing.
Misc of Note –
I’ve not ignored the chaos in Bangladesh, only that in the scheme of things the potential for that to harm the US is relatively low. What is evident is that radical islamic factions are reaching for the jihad tool box more and more recently. Here in the US the biggest flashpoint continues to be US support to Israel. However, they haven’t gotten enough knots tied up to permit the actions seen in places like Britain. Bangladesh is one of those facing descent into the dark ages of islamic rule.
Back in the saddle. The past couple days were filled with attending the Trump rally in Montana - and recovering from the event. Great experience.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
FORWARD OBSERVER is reporting that some anarchist podcasts are calling for more violent action but at the same time complaining about lack of momentum and ferver. They are assessing that support was essentially cut off following the 2020 riots, forcing a roll back in action levels. These anarchist elements then focused on internally preparing lines of command, psyops, logistics, combat (violence) element coordination to duplicate the same in 2024.
OBSERVATION - We’ve seen Antifa, et al, fall in supporting the pro-hamas protests and riots, but those actions were not enough to rally the marxist corps to the full scale revolution they had hoped to kick off for 2024. Barring any significant triggering event, it is unlikely that they will be capable of any significant actions this year. However, with the ongoing and highly volatile campaign season, global instability and economy on the edge all stirred up with uncontrolled illegal penetrations - anything can happen.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
The FBI and Maui Police Department provided an update today with information on the explosion of an improvised explosive device (IED) in Pukalani on Thursday. The agencies jointly issued a public safety warning yesterday regarding recent reports of IEDs recovered in the Kahului and Pukalani areas.
The incident occurred on Old Haleakalā Highway on Aug. 8, 2024 when an IED, which had been placed in a nearby trash receptacle, exploded. The explosion struck a passing vehicle, and the driver was transported to the hospital and released, according to the FBI.
“The FBI and MPD have identified and collected several IEDs which vary in size and shape, and has rendered them safe. The recovered devices have been located along roadways between Kahului and Kula, and were concealed from view in trash receptacles or other areas outside of plain view,” according to a joint news release.
https://mauinow.com/2024/08/09/fbi-and-maui-police-release-new-details-on-ied-explosion-in-pukalani/
OBSERVATION - At this stage to fully declare the event as terrorism versus some bored prank by high schoolers isn’t fully established. Unless the act is a terror incident, I really don’t see terrorists wasting time and potential detection by such low level attacks.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
39% of US adults indicated that they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to make ends meet. This marks a significant increase from December 2021, when that figure stood at 28%. These recent figures are also quite similar to those of the Great Recession, when they hovered around 37%.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Coming up short 10 percent of its required enlisted force means the Coast Guard “can’t crew all our ships” and has had to “temporarily shutter some of our smaller stations,” the vice commandant said Wednesday.
Adm. Kevin Lunday, speaking at the Brookings Institution, added, “We had to lay up three of our major cutters because we don’t have enough enlisted personnel to crew them.” Since the action, the service has shifted funds from other parts of the budget to bolster recruiting and retention.
He described the “controlled parts exchanged,” borrowing from another vessel to get a cutter underway, as “the fancy term for cannibalization.” If it continues over time, “you’re eating your readiness.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
The Trump campaign claimed that its internal communications were hacked by “foreign sources hostile to the United States,” according to a recent report.
Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung confirmed to Politico that “documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources” that were deemed “hostile” to the nation. The statement from Cheung came after the outlet had reportedly received “emails from an anonymous account with internal documents from former President Donald Trump’s campaign beginning around July 22.”
Cheung’s statement comes after Microsoft released a nine-page report on Friday revealing that it had been “tracking” activity that “increasingly points to Iran’s intent to influence this year’s US presidential election.”
In a blog from Microsoft, the company discussed activities by several groups with connections to the “Iranian government.”
***
Harris copied a campaign promise first announced by former President Donald Trump to eliminate taxes on tips.
During a campaign rally in Nevada on Saturday, Harris acknowledged that Culinary Union Local 226 was at the rally, and she continued on to vow that if elected president in November, she would work to “raise the minimum wage” and “eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.”
Harris’s promise comes after Trump announced in June during a rally in Las Vegas
OBSERVATION - Harris, who now claims to be against taxing tips, was the tie-breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which expanded the IRS so it could go after people not paying taxes on tips.
***
Retired Minnesota National Guard Command Sergeant Major Doug Julin in a CNN interview, gutted Walz’s version of his ‘retirement’. Not only did Walz know that his unit would be deployed when he suddenly retired, Walz back-doored Julin in applying for retirement, he explains, leaving his unit in the lurch.
OBSERVATION - The key here is that Walz fully knew the deployment was coming - and waited. The issue of a ‘stop loss’, an administrative measure to lock unit personnel in place to prevent key personnel disruptions and losses, was in place when Walz applied to retire. (my tour in Germany was extended due to stop loss executed for Desert Shield/Storm). CSM Julian makes it clear Waltz went behind his back (Julian was in a higher NG position and over Walz), he would have denied the retirement based on stop loss, because the unit was within a few weeks of deployment. Article link provides greater details on the whole affair.
Walz was in the command group and knew full well a deployment was coming. His last minute bail out was a disgrace to the NCO corps, his Stolen Valor claims negated any honorable mention of that service.
***
Tim Walz has repeatedly hosted a Muslim cleric who praises Hitler, as well as including him in his 2019 state address. Asad Zaman has also recently praised the October 7 massacre and atrocities as a legitimate expression of Palestinian grievances:
Biden / Harris Watch –
CNN panelists called for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris to face the media and answer voters’ questions Saturday on “The Chris Wallace Show.”
Biden dropped his reelection bid July 21, subsequently endorsing his vice president to take his place on the 2024 ticket. Harris has not formally addressed the press in the 20 days since she was called on to replace Biden.
OBSERVATION - The honeymoon period with the press is soon coming to an end and Harris will have to face the press sooner than later. When she does, break out the salad dressing folks.
***
The Harris Campaign website has reportedly “tweaked” (read: corrected) the military record of its vice presidential candidate, Democrat Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, after it was exposed that Walz has been exaggerating his rank at the time of his retirement from the Army National Guard in 2005.
Walz has yet to correct the falsehood on his official government website biography.
Walz has since stated that he “misspoke” (i.e. - lied) concerning his military service
Illegal Immigration –
According to a DHS report reviewed by Breitbart Texas, 1,953 migrants from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) were apprehended at the southwest border during the month of July. This brings this year’s total number of PRC nationals apprehended at the border to 35,300.
Related - Two illegals from China were arrested with $250k worth of gold bullion.
OBSERVATION - Chinese illegals continue to be one of the top concerns for terror and crimes - right up there with islamic radicals who’ve entered illegally as well.
China –
See Philippines below.
Phillipines –
Manila and Beijing accused each other on Saturday of disrupting their militaries’ operations around the Scarborough Shoal in the first incident since Marcos took office in 2022 in which the Philippines has complained of dangerous actions by Chinese aircraft, as opposed to navy or coast guard vessels.
The Philippine military on Saturday condemned “dangerous and provocative actions” when two Chinese aircraft dropped flares in the path of a Philippine aircraft during a routine patrol around the shoal on Thursday.
The Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command countered that the Philippines had disrupted its training, accusing Manila of “illegally intruding” into its airspace.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/china-philippines/2024/08/11/id/1176058/
Russia -
Logistics –
2 European intelligence sources told Reuters that dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More like a summary of the last 48-72 hours
Russia continued drone attacks across Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force reports that they shot down 53 of 57 attack drones (UAVs).
A post on the force’s Telegram account lists a number of regions where the drones were destroyed, including Odesa, Kyiv, Sumy and Cherkasy.
Ukraine launched a large drone attack on the Kursk region. Russian ministry of defense claims 14 drones and 4 Tochka-U missiles were shot down over Kursk region, 16 more drone were shot down over Voronezh, Belgorod, Oryol and Bryansk regions. However, many explosions and large fires reported over the area.
Fire reported after explosions in Persianovka village near Kuzminsky training ground in Rostov region from likely Ukraine drone attack.
Violent explosion from Russian ammo site was reported in Horlivka.
A massive secondary explosion of an ammunition depot at the Russian Morozovsk military air base caused by an attack of Ukrainian forces.
Governior of Bryansk region reports many civilians from the towns and villages near the border have decided to evacuate
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Below is a link to a figure estimating the extent of Ukrainian’s advance into Russia six days into the offensive -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUmVAtfXkAAGDI-.jpg
Below is a vid on “X” that also depicts the action over the past days
https://x.com/i/status/1822554984036102312
Russian media reporting clashes or even new incursion in Belovsky district of Kursk region
Over 76,000 people have been evacuated from the Kursk region’s border districts overall, the regional emergencies ministry said. Previously, the mayor of Kursk said over 16,000 evacuees had applied for aid in the city of Kursk alone. 16,000 residents of areas near the border have evacuated due to the Ukrainian incursion, the mayor of Kursk said
It seems the Russians really have no idea how much is actually coming into Kursk, but given the amount of success the UA is having, some OSINT analysts believes 2 brigades are in, 4 more are on the way, and 8 brigades are in reserve. Ukraine holding very tight OPSEC, so these numbers are still speculative.
From Russian milblogger - TG Romanov_92, - an important few observations: (1) RU comms are apparently lacking or non-existent; (2) RuAF are using conventional bombs without UMPK kits; (3) the RU lines are so porous that when resistance is met, UA goes around them.
Two Russian battalions, the 17th battalion of the 488th regiment and the 31st battalion of the 102nd brigade, are reportedly encircled near Sudzha. Z-bloggers claim that the command is aware of the situation but is not taking action.
The Ukrainian Navy struck a Russian gas platform in the Black Sea, which housed technical reconnaissance equipment and up to 40 personnel. The platform is reportedly still burning.
Ukraine destroyed a massive Russian weapons supply in Rostov, Russia. Huge secondary explosions continued long after the strike.
Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed a convoy carrying T-80 tanks of Russian forces near Koronevo Kursk region. A second convoy carrying hundreds of Russian soldiers was also destroyed by a HIMARs strike.
Outlook —
It is hard to summarize the action over the past few days as Ukraine has held to a pretty tight OPSEC regiment and most of the on the ground intelligence is coming from imbedded Russian milbloggers.
Bottom line up front is Russia has been totally messed up and Ukraine is laying it on thick and heavy.
If you view the little video showing the progress of the offensive, you’ll see that Ukraine is being successful applying combined arms tactics and mobile warfare - moving fast, bypassing pockets of resistance for follow on forces to elimate. Ukraine in less than a week has captured more territory than Russia has in the spring/summer offensive with far far fewer casualties. It was this kind of warfare that was hoped for during last summer’s Ukraine offensive.
From another tactical viewpoint - they are controlling the high ground that overlooks major supply routes (rail and roads). That success has resulted in at least two significant Russian reinforcement convoys being ambushed and eliminated - probably more have been hit.
This brings into focus the disorganized Russian attempts to shift forces to stop the assault. Russia has had their forces committed to trying to exploit marginal successes in the Ocheretyne / Donetsk regions - committing its limited reserves to the region. Available units for Russia consist of heavily depleted units pulled out of the fight and attempting to reconstitute.
Now throw into the mix the complexity of these forces loading up, driving a long distance around Ukraine, staging and entering into a fight they have little to poor intelligence about. Hence units are being thrown into the fray in a piecemeal fashion and are being defeated in detail.
This massive attempt to stop the offensive has now stripped critical forces from other areas of the front that could now be susceptible to Ukainian counter attacks.
Russia is in a serious fix as Ukraine is beginning to exploit another breakthrough to the east of the salient that could encircle the Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine threatens a major nuclear power plant as well as Kursk proper. Russia is lacking the coordination and forces to stop the assault in the near future. Ultimate Ukranian goals are still obscure, but the immediate goals appear to be lethally effective and just how deep Ukraine can plunge is limited only by the combat resources at hand.
Belarus -
Belarus is relocating “Iskander” missile systems and “Polonez” multiple rocket launchers to the border with Ukraine, according to the country’s Ministry of Defense. Additionally, Lukashenko has ordered the strengthening of military forces in the Gomel and Mozyr tactical directions.
The Chargé d’Affaires of Ukraine in the Republic of Belarus Olga Timush was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus, a strong protest was lodged and a corresponding note was sent in connection with the violation of the border of the Republic of Belarus by a group of unmanned aerial vehicles launched from the territory of Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - It is still unlikely that the Belarus military will happily go to war against Ukraine at putin’s order. Even though they’ve received a lot of training by Russians and Wagners over the past couple years, they’ve seen the meat grinder in action and are not willing to become active participants. There are still elements of the military who are at odds over Lukashenko’s takeover of the govt.
Europe / NATO General –
French General Bertrand Toujouse warned Western officials that in the event of a Russian attack or invasion into Europe, NATO countries will have difficulties deploying troops and equipment across Europe’s many borders due to “administration red tape” and customs regulations. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius maintains that Russia could launch an invasion by 2029, although some European intelligence agencies believe that date is sooner.
***
British police threaten to extradite US (and other foreigners) for social messages negative towards the armed moslem gangs roving throughout England. Even targeting Elon Musk by name.
US patriots have had a field day on social media- Bring it on bro.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Guessing game continues as to when Hezbollah and Iran will attack.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) General Michael Kurilla made his second trip to Israel in a week to discuss the security situation and to coordinate a defense plan with General Herzi Halevi, chief of the staff for the Israeli Defense Force.
A member of Iran’s Parliament warned that the expected Iranian attack against Israel could last multiple days, Iranian opposition news source Iran International reported.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army issues a new evacuation order for Palestinians in the Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip, following rocket fire on southern Israel. Four rockets were launched at the border community of Kissufim earlier on Saturday, causing no injuries.
The Israeli military says it killed 19 Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants at a command and control center inside a mosque at the al-Tabaeen school compound. The militants promoted attacks against Israeli army troops and Israel
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Israeli army says it carried out a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon overnight , targeting Hezbollah sites and operatives. According to the Israeli army, the targets included a Hezbollah operative spotted entering a building in Tayr Harfa; rocket launchers in Houla and Qalaat Debba; a drone primed for launch and a member of Hezbollah’s aerial forces in an undisclosed area of southern Lebanon; and buildings used by Hezbollah and weapons depots in Hanine, Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Blida.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iran is set to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to “harshly punish” Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander was quoted as saying on Friday by local news agencies
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Israeli attacked the Shayrat military airport in the Homs region of Syria. Shayrat Airbase has long been well-known also as a base of Russian troop operations over several years. It remains unknown if Russians were present at the base when it was struck late Thursday night. Some Israeli sources have said ammo storage depots were hit, or else ‘Iranian assets’ were targeted – as is the usual refrain after such operations.
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Israel security forces active throughout the west bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A suicide drone attack targeted the US base Kharab al-Jir” in the countryside of Hasakah, and the coalition forces shoot down another plane that tried to target the base.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: We informed Iran and Israel that we will shoot down any target in the skies of Jordan. Jordan also stated that it is willing to cooperate with Israel to open its airspace to IAF intercepts of drones and cruise missiles should the Iranian attack occur.
Jordan has informed Israel that it will allow its air force to participate in the interception of the expected Iranian attack that will pass through the kingdom’s airspace, security officials in Amman said. According to the same sources, there is security, military and intelligence coordination between Jordan and Israel, regarding the expected Iranian response.
According to Axios; the U.S, U.K, Israel, France, and several arab nations are now finalizing their plans and preparations to defend against a large-scale Iranian and/or Hezbollah attack against Israel; with intense diplomacy going on “Behind-the-Scenes” in an attempted to prevent the attack.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Eyes still monitoring for the expected missile strikes from Hezbollah and Iran. Earlier, I thought the attack would be sooner, however, with the onset of Tisha B’Av, August 12, the intensity of the watch is increasing. This due to the arab history of striking on an Israeli high day - Yom Kippur and the Oct7 Hamas attacks for instance.
Iran’s military exercises designed to mask preparations for the attack continue. Hezbollah has less logistics to prepare so such exercises are not as necessary.
A multi-day attack is very likely and will result in serious counter strikes by Israel against both Hezbollah and Iran. Escalation beyond that is problematical.
The degree and size of the Iranian strikes has hit internal discord within the Iranian govt, but it appears that the religious rulers are overruling the new Iranian president. Can’t predict what will happen beyond this.
This next week could be huge and repercussions could be extensive from and attack of the size being conservatively speculated on.
Iran –
Iran’s new president Pezeshkian is battling the IRGC in an attempt to prevent all-out war with Israel, according to The Telegraph. Top generals in IRGC are insisting on a direct strike on Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, focusing on military bases to avoid civilian casualties, in response to the killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran. But Pezeshkian has suggested targeting “secret Israeli bases” in Iran’s neighboring countries, as it did in the past, before the first-ever direct attack on Israel in April
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Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards are holding military drills in the western parts of the country that will continue until Tuesday, Iran’s official news agency announced on Sunday.
The drills, which started on Friday, are ongoing in the western province of Kermanshah, close to the border with Iraq, to “enhance combat readiness and vigilance,” an armed forces official told IRNA. - Post
Venezuela -
The Supreme Court of the Maduro regime has ruled that the President-Elect Edmundo Gonzalez is in contempt of court.
The Maduro regime is just starting their persecution of opposition leaders
OBSERVATION - This whole election was based on an agreement with biden to have a fair and open election in exchange for lifting of sanctions. Well you can see that this is another fine mess the regime has made. The opposition is continuing to lose ground as Maduro consolidates the military and courts to take out his opposition. And the opposition has failed to take the big step - one that would include violence and near civil war - to expel Maduro.
