FYI, I won’t be posting this Friday as I will be attending a special event here in the Redoubt. Unlikely to do anything Saturday either - unless all heck breaks loose as I’ll be getting home very late Friday night/Saturday morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The BBC is reporting that the UK may seek to extradite social media influencers if they feel that they contributed to riots in the UK.
OBSERVATION - This is regards to the ongoing islamic uprising and the British crackdown on the victims of the uprising. Social commentators from outside Britain are collectively saying “bring it on”. This perversion of justice is what is to be expected from the globalist if/when they take power.
***
Newly-adopted World Health Organization amendments commit the U.S. to giving WHO wide-ranging authority to police, surveil and control Americans, in the name of protecting them from “pandemic emergencies,” a former WHO medical director warns.
Approved on June 1, the Biden Administration-backed amendments to WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR) require WHO to set up an office (“National IHR Authority”) in the U.S., from which it will address both real and perceived “potential” health threats.
After their adoption, the Brownstone Institute published an analysis of the amendments co-authored by Senior Scholar David Bell, a public health physician and former WHO medical officer. Titled “IHR Amendments Open Door to Perpetual Emergencies,” the report examines the amendments line by line, highlighting their most problematic initiatives:
1 Broadening the definition of a “pandemic emergency” to the point that “a simple threat can be declared an emergency,” resulting in a proliferation of declared “emergencies” and government-imposed mandates, restrictions and lockdowns.
2 Ordaining WHO’s Director-General “as the sole person who declares” a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).
3 Creation of National IHR Authorities (offices) in member countries (such as the U.S.) to manage, implement and track compliance with the WHO agenda.
4 Requiring member nations to perform “a broad list of surveillance and reporting activities” within their respective countries.
5 Justifying the imposition of mandates and restrictions under the guise of combating perceived “potential” health threats.
6 Broadening the definition of “health products” to the point that “a whole industry of pandemic products will be facilitated and rolled out by the WHO, without any oversight, transparency, and accountability mechanisms.”
In a statement to CNSNews, WHO confirmed that:
- The president of the United States has ten months from the date that the Director-General issues a formal notice of the amendments to reject or voice reservations regarding any the amendments on behalf of his country.
- The amendments would come into force two months after the ten-month deadline passes, if the U.S. does not file reservations or reject them (12 months total from passage).
- The Director-General will issue the formal notice and the final text “in the coming weeks.”
OBSERVATION - The WHO is working backdoor on getting its global authority. This one is flying under the radar due to the current political chaos in the US. As the most important component of the eventual global “treaty’ WHO desires, its is maneuvering the US and other countries into position for the final act next year when they try again to sign the pandemic treaty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Though technically not in the US, islamic protests/riots are spreading across Canada. One of the key demands is shriah law and submission to allah. There is a growing potential for similar to start springing up in moslem-heavy regions of the US.
***
The selection of Walz for democrat VP will likely send a signal to dormant Antifa elements that the game is on for election violence. Walz stood by and did nothing while Minneapolis burned, his wife said she kept the windows open to smell the smoke and savor the moment, while his daughter transmitted sensitive NG plans to Antifa/BLM riot leaders. Just how quickly they will jump remains to be seen. Most likely fire up if it becomes evident that the democrats are sinking again or following the election if Trump wins.
****
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel’s office sent a cease and desist letter to a resident over allegedly posting “election misinformation” online.
Robbin N. Liddell, chief of Nessel’s Criminal Trials Division, sent the letter to a Ross Township resident on July 24, informing the recipient that they were “in violation of Michigan election law,” The Midwesterner reported Tuesday.
Liddell wrote that the individual had “spread misleading or false election information regarding polling locations in Ross Township through on-line sites” and violated a state law that “prohibits and criminalizes this conduct.”
[snip]
The resident who received the letter told The Midwesterner that the online information cited in the letter was a group of social media posts claiming the township didn’t inform residents within the 60-day window that voting locations had been changed.
OBSERVATION - The leftists will intensify their campaign to silence free speech. This is just a continuation of the assault on “misinformation” that began with the wuhan plandemic. Selectively enforced.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
A Pakistani national with alleged ties to Iran has been charged in connection with a foiled plot to assassinate a politician or U.S. government officials on U.S. soil, according to a Department of Justice (DOJ) press release and indictment unsealed on Tuesday.
Asif Merchant, also known as “Asif Raza Merchant,” 46, was charged with murder-for-hire as part of a scheme targeting public figures within the United States. He was apprehended and is currently in federal custody in New York.
OBSERVATION - There are probably dozens more like him roaming around out there.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Global and US markets are stabilizing, but still concerned after Monday’s fallout and happy words from the Fed. Breath is being held that it all can be kept duct taped together before the elections. A lot of economic confidence depends on the Fed dropping rates in September. However, a drop of a quarter point will not due much as the deeper damage is done and credit will still remain obscenely high.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S Defense confirms that an F/A-18 squadron from the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has relocated to a regional airbase.
Twelve American F-22 Raptor jets made a stopover at RAF Lakenheath in the UK as they head towards an operational deployment in the U.S. Central Command area. This deployment is part of preparations for a potential Iranian attack on Israel and the escalation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Harris has selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate. The MSM spun up into overdrive to try to polish this turd. I won’t go into greater detail, multiple FR threads are covering this piece of slime quite well.
Squad member Cory Bush got squashed in her primary bid. That two down. Omar is facing primary next week.
Biden / Harris Watch –
There are still no policy goals on the harris website
Distant RUMINT that biden his having regrets about pulling out of the race and may seek to reverse his decision. Don’t hold your breath.
Russia -
RUMINT-
Russia has conditioned their transfer of air defense equipment and technology to Iran in exchange for a pledge from the mullah’s not to strike Israel and potentially starting a much broader regional conflict.
Additional unconfirmed reports that the Russian rail road network is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions combined with the war effort have limited supplies and materials to keep the rails repaired and the engines running.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
RUMINT. Ukrainian forces in a counter attack pushed Russian forces from the Zhovtnevyl microdistrict of Chasiv yar and back over the canal.
Soldiers, infantry fighting vehicles and tanks crossed into Russia from Ukraine and are now attacking the Russian Army in the Kursk region. This morning, the force has reportedly driven as deep as 15 km across a 10 km front into Russia. Russia reportedly scrambling to get reinforcements into the region. During the fighting a central gas pumping station was destroyed, it is one of the largest gas pumping stations in Russia, and the largest in transferring natural gas to Europe by land. The settlements of Nikolayevo-Daryino, Daryino and Sverdlikovo in Kursk region are now reportedly under control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukraine breaks its record for strike against the most distant oil refinery. The Transneft oil refinery in Usinsk in the Komi Republic was hit overnight. It’s more than 2000 km away.
Outlook —
This push into Russia is different from past crossings. Those were conducted by the Russian Freedom Legion / Russian Volunteer Corps and usually accompanied by an abundance of PR announcing the raids -which those basically were. Those PR announcements have been absent.
The tactical goal of this operation appears to be to capture/control key logistical lines of communication that the Russian Northern Army Group heavily relies upon. This consists of rail road nodes and highways that are carrying supplies to the Russian forces attacking on the Kharkiv and other axis further south and southeast. The speed of the advance indicates Russia was not expecting anything this aggressive.
The Ukraine forces have also come packing ADA. Already at least two of Russia’s advanced attack helicopters have been shot down along with at least one fighter/bomber.
This also occurs as Russia has directed its resources towards the Ocheretyne front. Time will tell just how much of a threat this can pose to Kursk.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Emergency meeting of the Arab league today in Saudi Arabia.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Israel assesses that Iran attack may target high-profile sites such as the Knesset, Prime Minister’s Office, Israeli army Headquarters, Mossad HQ and/or Air Force & Israeli army intel bases; other potential targets include power plants, seaports & airports
Unconfirmed reports Russian President Putin requested that Supreme Leader Khamenei deliver a “controlled response” to Israel and avoid causing civilian casualties.
According to the Al Arabiya report, the latest intelligence suggests the Iranian response may be delayed until Thursday or Friday. While the exact nature of the response remains unclear, American officials noted they are confident it is imminent.
Canadian diplomats and their families will leave Israel tomorrow due to the security situation - Ynet
The Israeli army has confirmed that Bilha Yinon, a resident of Netiv Haasara who was considered the last missing person from the October 7th massacre, was killed in the attack. After complex testing, evidence found near her home confirmed her identity
Hamas has just announced that Yahya Sinwar, the terror group’s leader in Gaza, was selected as the head of its political bureau, succeeding the assassinated leader Ismail Haniyeh.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Following last night’s rocket fire from the north of the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army spokesman informed the residents of Beit Hanon this morning that the Israeli army will operate on the ground in the area and they must evacuate immediately towards the safe areas. Another example of Hamas firing from within a humanitarian safety zone.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah’s biggest barrage since the beginning of the war was fired at Metula, Kfar Giladi and Kiryat Shmona. This followed Hezbollah announcement of the 400th terrorist in its ranks who had been eliminated since the beginning of the war.
Reports that UNIFIL “peace keeping” forces in southern Lebanon are leaving the country.
The Times of Israel reported that earlier today, Israeli jets set off Sonic booms in Beirut just as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was set to start delivering his fiery speech once again threatening the world’s one and only Jewish State.
“Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier over Beirut just ahead of a pugnacious speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday afternoon, as northern residents were told to stay close to bomb shelters amid a series of cross-border attacks from Lebanon,” the Times of Israel detailed. “At the beginning of his televised address on Tuesday to mark the one-week anniversary of Shukr’s death, Nasrallah charged that the sonic booms set off by Israeli planes flying low over Beirut were intended as a provocation.”
“The loud booms sent residents rushing to open their windows to prevent the glass from shattering or standing on their balconies to get a glimpse of the planes flying over,” the report continued.
Clearly, this was a message from Israel.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A convoy of international coalition forces deployed from the city of Al-Shaddadi to Deir ez-Zor following the attack launched by tribal forces on YPG militia positions in the eastern countryside of Deir ez-Zor.
Initial reports of U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets in the Taiz Governorate of southwestern Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran’s acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to attend the emergency meeting of foreign ministers of Muslim countries to address regional situation and the Israeli assassination of late Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
More than a thousand British military personnel are on standby in case of emergency evacuation of British citizens from Lebanon in case of war. Hundreds of soldiers, commandos, sailors and pilots are on standby at the British Air Force base in Cyprus, and hundreds more are on standby at bases in the UK in case they are deployed in an emergency.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Sepeculation and rumors continue. It is being reported that some Israeli officials believe that Iran is beginning to get “cold feet” and is now reconsidering a major response against Israel, due to the possibility of it causing a full-scale region war that they couldn’t win and losing valuable nuclear and oil facilities in the process. This may be moved along with Russian insistence.
Another rumor suggests that Hezbollah is getting impatient with Iran, and may soon launch their own unilateral attack on Israel. If Hezbollah tries to attack Israel in some major way, Beirut, the capital of Lebanon where Nashallah routinely hides, will be on the table.
This also coincides with thoughts that Iran is willing to toss Hezbollah under the bus like they did Hamas to protect its nuclear program.
Worst case planning points to at least two waves of attacks and could extend over several days. If Iran/Hezbollah hit any of the areas noted above, the red lines will have been crossed and israel will likely make a severe retaliatory strike.
Current timeline may well depend on the outcome of today’s emergency meeting of the Arab League, meaning that the earliest now would be tomorrow. Another opportunity which would be highly symbolic would be to attack on Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Iran –
In an unusual move, all Iranian government offices and banks in Tehran province and the neighboring Alborz province will be closed on Wednesday, the Iranian government announced, citing a ‘significant rise in temperature’ as the reason
Iraq -
Iraq has arrested three people in western Anbar suspected of carrying out the rocket attack on Ain al-Assad airbase, injuring seven Americans including five service members, AlArabiya reported citing sources
Syria -
The Syrian Democratic Forces SDF say they are under a major attack by the forces of the Pro-Assad forces and its militias in Dei_Ez_Zor region in eastern Syria. SDF deployed reinforcements from the base of the Al-Omar field to the city of Abu Hamam, east of Deir Ezzor, following clashes with tribal forces
Arab forces have begun capturing Syrian oil fields from the Americans.
Unconfirmed reports that these Syrian tribal forces have captured 81.2 square kilometers in their offensive so far
The US coalition has begun air strikes.
OBSERVATION - This scrum appears to be a hybrid of the iranian militias attacks on US/Coalition bases and more internal Syrian civil war actions.
Venezuela -
Maduro is still holding power and arresting opposition and protestors. It doesn’t seem that the general population is not ready/willing to take the protests to the next level to force him out.
Thanks Godzilla.
Who gives WHO all that power? /s
Why is Hassan Nasrallah still alive? Civilization advocates should discontinue another of the barbarian leaders. Send another message.
Enjoy your time off...
FYI, I won’t be posting this Friday as I will be attending a special event here in the Redoubt. Unlikely to do anything Saturday either - unless all heck breaks loose as I’ll be getting home very late Friday night/Saturday morning and trying to catch up on my sleep.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Columbia University group “Students for Justice in Palestine” has just posted on their Instagram account that they are “fighting for the total eradication of Western civilization.”
OBSERVATION - This group strongly affiliates with the rhetoric of Hamas/Hezbollah hybrid with socialism. I don’t see any near term threats such as a repeat of the campus takeover attempts, which this group was partially responsible for organizing and executing. This manifesto is likely driven to try to stimulate renewed interest in the ‘struggle’.
As Elon Musk and others say “People should believe them when they say this”
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
In a stark warning, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency is alerting all field offices that Iran or its proxies may try to transport “operatives, money or materials” across the southern or northern U.S. borders to conduct a terrorism attack against Americans, according to an agency memo obtained Wednesday by Just the News.
OBSERVATION - Many of those teams are already here.
***
Taylor Swift’s concerts in Vienna have been canceled after several suspects were arrested for planning Islamic terrorist attacks.
Reports that the suspects are affiliated with ISIS.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Reading rumors that there may be another baby formula shortage in the offing. If you have little ones on formula, I’d recommend you purchase extra and stock up now or we could see a repeat of 2022’s empty shelves.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US military assets continue to shift in support of efforts to deter Iran from executing an attack on Israel.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
WHO raising red flags over Monkey Pox again.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
US Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris met with two Arab Americans leading the Uncommitted National Movement, who asked her to consider an arms embargo on Israel, at a campaign stop in Michigan, the New York Times reported.
Just before her rally, Harris met with Abbas Alawieh and Layla Elabed, who, according to the report, “wanted to support her but... wanted her to consider an arms embargo.” In response, Harris indicated she was “open to it” and introduced the two community leaders to her staff.
The Harris campaign said in a statement that only “in this brief engagement” did Harris “reaffirm that her campaign will continue to engage with those communities,” NYT reported.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-813817
OBSERVATION - Harris’ growing move to go even further left threatens the democrat Jewish base with being tossed under the bus. Already Walz is known to be anti-semitic and harris’ dumping of Shapario for VP has raised a lot of hackles in the more moderate wing of the party. Her ‘noncommittal’ statement shows she’s leaning that way but isn’t quite ready to cut all the cords to the jewish lobby in the democrat party.
***
Democrat pollsters are cringing at some of the numbers Walz is bringing with him in a negative manner. Stolen valor and his uber-socialist views, along with his pro BLM actions in 2020 (really, who lets their wife keep the windows open so that she can savor the moment). Those items are going to wear the ‘enthusiasm’ for the pair down quickly.
In the poll, released Tuesday night, 35% of registered voters said they were unsure about the choice, while 35% said Walz was a good pick and 16% said he was a bad pick, according to YouGov.
***
Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris and the Democratic National Committee “gut-punched” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro by rejecting him as a vice presidential candidate because of his support of Israel, Rep. Dan Meuser said on Newsmax on Wednesday.
“They very deliberately brought him right up to the gate and then slammed it in his face, so it was quite an insult,” the Pennsylvania Republican said on “Newsline.” “Most of Pennsylvania believed it was going to be Josh Shapiro.”
Meuser said there were a “few reasons” for the decision, but that Harris and the DNC could not approve Shapiro, who is Jewish and “strongly supportive of the state of Israel.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/dan-meuser-pennsylvania-kamala-harris/2024/08/07/id/1175612/
OBSERVATION - PA is in play and will this hurt the dem’s chances at keeping it blue, as well as disenfranchising the more moderate, Israel supporting flank of the party as well?.
Biden / Harris Watch –
JD Vance walked up to Kamala Harris’ plane to ask why she’s hiding from reporters.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
RUMINT –
More and more Russian channels are starting to worry about a new Ukrainian operation into the Bilhorod region besides what is happening in the Kursk region.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The state of emergency has been introduced in Kursk region. Military action is dynamic and situation changing rapidly.
Below are links to a couple maps that depict Ukraine’s incursion into Russia - they are already out of date.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUYb1MqW4AAE3Qv.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUaMPCVXAAAgc3-.jpg
Russian Telegram rumors so far today — none of it confirmed, but gives you a sense of the chaos: According to RU sources, Ukraine took control over: Gornal’, Guevo, Kurilovka, Oleshnya, Rubanshchina, Honcharivka, Lebedevka, Aleksandriya, Leonidovo, Zelenyi Shlyakh, Tolstyi Lug, Luybimovka, Pokrovskii and Obukhovka. Russian reserves pouring into Kursk. Something shot down, maybe an Su-34.
All the Rosgvardia men at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant are gone to fight, leaving only the women at the facility.
Sources are reporting that Russian aviation accidentally bombed their own soldiers attempting to leave the town of Sudzha.
The Ukrainians report 300 Russian soldiers captured in Kursk Oblast. 350 km2 captured.
Ukrainian equipment appears to have a new battlefield tactical signs for the offensive in Kursk, another indication this has been a large planned incursion then previously thought.
Multiple Russian military bloggers claim Sudzha is not under control of Russian forces anymore. Unconfirmed Reports from locals that a Ukrainian flag has been raised in Sudzha over the police headquarters.
The stations at the Sudzha, Korenevo, and Psel stations in the Kursk region are temporarily closed to passengers, - Russian Railway company reports
Internet resources of the Kursk region were subjected to a massive DDoS attack, many services were down and temporarily unavailable - regional authorities
West of Avdiivka, Russian advances continue. Vesele has been taken over and also visual confirmation of Russians inside Serhiivka has been confirmed. Ukraine has definitely not stabilized this direction, leading to Russia capturing more and more villages.
Confirmation that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of the canal district of Chasiv Yar and across the canal.
Outlook —
All heck continues in Kursk province. As this operation unfolds some more details have come out.
- Size wise, the Ukraine force is roughly equivalent to a NATO Corps size element, with 3-5 mechanized and tank heavy brigades.
- The major units involved are experienced, combat hardened elements and mech heavy in organization. This is in contrast to the largely green forces in last summer’s southern offensive.
- Special invasion markings indicate this has been planned for a while
- The efforts to gobble up terrain indicate this is more than just a raid, but a long term occupation.
- Russia was caught completely with their pants down. The Ukraine forces blew through two defensive lines with essentially no resistance.
- Ukraine using new tactics to counter Russian attack helicopters - FPV drones - and being successful.
Noted yesterday, this operation will substantially cut off logistics routes to Russian Group North forces - particularly in the Kharkiv sector. Ukraine forces overnight have been expanding the flanks of the salient while it appears that recon elements have penetrated even deeper than the main force into Russia. The immediate tactical goal of the operation appears to be to control the highlands in the region and choke off Russian logistics.
Fog of war kicking in on whether or not a similar offensive action towards Bilhorod is in the offing. I think there is a fair possibility .
This operation may well explain why forces have been limited in the Ocheretyne sector - possibly and economy of force operation - so that forces would be available for this strike.
Even before this operation, analysts were viewing the Russian offensive running out of steam, with likely only a couple more months of effectiveness before running out of steam. This action will put Russian forces in theatre under greater stress. With Russia concentrating in the Donbas region, any reinforcements have to be swung from this region - meaning a long march and a lot of work just to reach the battle. Ukraine has the advantage of internal lines of communication while Russia has to go all the way around just to get there. Another Russia option would be stripping other units closer to the fight, but then exposing them to the same lighting strike by Ukraine forces.
Right now, the unconfirmed reports from Russian milbloggers are that Russian is throwing units into the fight in a piecemeal manner - risking defeat in detail. Even throwing some residual Wagner elements as well as Chechen forces (who reportedly ran away at the first gun shots).
Besides the terrain, Ukraine may seek to circle back and entrap Russian border units. This is plausible given the poor quality units revealed by the offensive.
This action by Ukraine caught just about every one by surprise, especially the US as Ukraine did not inform us of this plan (and good for them). Ukraine has a lot of fight left in it and a bold, thought out plan like this is working.
Europe / NATO General –
Croydon, London, severe riots by Muslim militias tonight, looting and rampage. The police do not usually intervene when it comes to Muslims.
OBSERVATION - Armed moslem militias have taken over the streets in many towns in England. Meanwhile, the govt proudly announces the social media crackdown of anyone posting (or reposting) a mean message. Unarmed peacefully protesting Brits are being beaten down by police - while moslems continue to assault. This is societal self destruction. Deliberate and dastardly.
RELATED - Australia, India, Nigeria, Malaysia, and Indonesia have issued travel warnings for the United Kingdom in response to the ongoing riots.
ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,
Key overnight developments -
- Waiting and watching game continues
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Newly appointed Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly urged Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to avoid attacking Israel. Pezeshkian allegedly warned that an escalation could devastate Iran’s infrastructure and cripple the economy.
He also reportedly highlighted the risk of deepening citizens’ discontent and potentially leading to Iran’s collapse.
Khamenei was supposedly noncommittal during the meeting.
Source: Times of Israel
****
Israel informed the U.S. that if Hezbollah targets Israeli civilians in its retaliation, the Israel Defense Force will respond with disproportionate and overwhelming force
As reported by CNN, U.S. Defense and Intelligence Officials have stated that while some preparations have been complete since Iran’s original attack against Israel on April 13th, such as the deployment of ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems; there are several other unstated preparations that would need to be made by Iran before another attack against Israel, that have not yet been observed.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Artillery and air strikes throughout Gaza. Heaviest appear to be in the Khan Younis area.
IDF confirms: senior Hamas terrorist Narl Sakhl was eliminated in an IDF strike in Gaza on July 24.
According to the IDF, Sakhl was involved in directing terror attacks in the West Bank, including financing and supplying weapons to terror cells.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah infrastructure, rocket launching sites and ammo storage area throughout S Lebanon.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Eyes still monitoring for the expected missile strikes from Hezbollah and Iran.
I was reminded that it took Iran about 3 weeks to prepare and execute the April attack. While Iran left a lot of preparations in place, there are still a lot of things that have to come together as well.
The Iranian ongoing war game may well serve a a cover for the final deployment of assets necessary for the israel strike.
Hezbollah, OTOH, is capable right now of launching an attack and there is a lot of rumor that they are getting impatient with Iran and may go it alone. It has a store of 150,000 rockets and missiles, many of which are ready to fire in hidden, underground bunkers. While Hamas was able to launch over 3000 rockets in the first day of its Oct 7 attack, Hezbollah has the capability of launching far, far more. Their ground assault capabilities have been hurt in the tit for tat exchanges with Israel, so no massive surprise ground raids/assaults a la Oct 7 are expected. If they try, Israel has a massive build up of ground forces that would crush the Hezbollah forces.
So what is the game plan? Tons of speculation continues. Current analysis indicates that it will be a multi day assault in multiple waves. If Hezbollah launches first, the massive attack would give Iran some cover to make its final preparations and launch from Iran.
Further delay comes with growing threat that Iran’s plans - particularly cruise missiles and drones - will be stymied by a coalition of air forces like last time. More western (principally US) air force assets continue to pour into the region.
Hezbollah’s massive rocket capabilities will likely be able to locally overwhelm Israel Iron Dome systems and inflict some severe damage. US air craft and missile defenses on naval vessels are not capable of targeting these short ranged weapons. Longer ranged, more sophisticated ballistic missiles launched by Hezbollah could be intercepted by US missiles or Israeli Arrow systems.
Israeli response - in their words “disproportionate” I think any respect for biden or the US is out the door right now and he carries less influence than ever. I don’t think Israel will just pop an Iranian SAM site and call it good this time.
The region waits while Iran and Hezbollah continue to beat their chests and prepare for their attack.
Iran –
Iranian media in Iran is reporting that the military exercise has begun, and the guidelines on restrictions in certain areas in the west of the country have come into effect.
Joint exercises of the army and the Revolutionary Guards will be conducted in the western and central regions. The Iranians announced that the exercise will last three days and will include the launch of ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles as well as UAVs.
OBSERVATION - See Israel above. These exercises are likely being used as cover to move weapons and prepare launch systems for the expected strike against Israel. It is likely designed to better prepare their air defense elements for any Israeli counter strike.
Syria -
Clashes reported between the Syrian Army, tribal groups, and the U.S-Backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) having escalated overnight in Northeastern Syria near the City of Deir ez-Zor, with Pro-Government forces reportedly coming within 100 Meters of American Troops located at MSS Green Village in the Al-Omar Oil Fields.
Mexico -
A U.S. judge on Wednesday dismissed much of Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit seeking to hold U.S. gun manufacturers responsible for facilitating the trafficking of firearms to violent drug cartels across the U.S.-Mexico border.
U.S. District Judge Dennis Saylor in Boston dismissed claims against six of the eight companies Mexico had sued in 2021, including Sturm, Ruger, and Glock, citing jurisdictional problems.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mexico-sturm-ruger/2024/08/07/id/1175621/
Venezuela -
The Venezuelan Armed Forces released a statement on Tuesday ratifying its “absolute loyalty” to socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro, whom it claims was “legitimately re-elected” in the July 28 sham presidential election.
The statement was released in response to a document that opposition leader María Corina Machado and presidential candidate Edmundo González published on Monday that called for the Venezuelan military to stop repressing protesters and stop Maduro’s efforts to stage a coup by refusing to recognize his defeat in the election.
OBSERVATION - This is a real world example of the saying “You can’t vote your way out of socialism” Maduro has re-secured the military’s support and is increasing arrests of opposition. The window for a successful overthrow is rapidly closing.
Misc of Note –
I’ve not ignored the chaos in Bangladesh, only that in the scheme of things the potential for that to harm the US is relatively low. What is evident is that radical islamic factions are reaching for the jihad tool box more and more recently. Here in the US the biggest flashpoint continues to be US support to Israel. However, they haven’t gotten enough knots tied up to permit the actions seen in places like Britain. Bangladesh is one of those facing descent into the dark ages of islamic rule.
