-21 degrees and falling here in my corner of the Redoubt. Tomorrow morning forecast for a body numbing -39 ! (oh that’ll make your face hurt). Hot fire in the stove helping the furnace immensely.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
The World Economic Forum will be discussing “Disease X” on January 17, 2024 as part of their annual meeting in Davos.
“With fresh warnings from the World Health Organization that an unknown “Disease X” could result in 20 times more fatalities than the coronavirus pandemic, what novel efforts are needed?”
OBSERVATION - Telegraphing their next play? They have been pounding that drum of another ‘pandemic’ for a couple years now. Hmmmm.
***
WEF just published their 2024 “Global Risks Report,” which is based on a survey they do of “experts.” And the experts they polled have a simple message:
The #1 threat to the globe is “misinformation and disinformation.” They identify “disinformation” as the spread of information that deviates from their approved “Narrative”, and their goal is to shut down all means by which dissenters can counter that “Narrative”. What they are pushing for, of course, is even harsher measures for censorship.
Other risks in order are:
- Extreme weather events (i.e. Global warming)
- Societal polarization
- Cyber insecurity
- Interstate armed conflict
- Lack of economic opportunity
- Involuntary immigration
- Economic downturn
- Pollution.
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2024.pdf
OBSERVATION - Key to this list is what is important to the globalist elites - not necessarily the peasantry they seek to rule over.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Anti-Israel protesters reacted to the airstrikes overnight against Yemen by gathering at Times Square in New York City, chanting:
“UK and US go to hell”
OBSERVATION - The face of the protests going into this year and the elections is clearly developing into a massive anti-Israel movement and one willing to toss the willing leftists in congress under the bus.
***
A pair of Democratic lawmakers have introduced bills that would prevent private paramilitary activity in the U.S.
Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts put forth the legislation that would create a federal prohibition on paramilitary groups through civil and criminal enforcement.
The ban would hold individuals liable who directly engage in certain types of conduct, including intimidating state and local officials, interfering with government proceedings, pretending to be law enforcement, and violating people’s constitutional rights, while armed and acting as part of a private paramilitary organization.
The lawmakers say a federal law is necessary to prevent another Jan. 6-style attack on the Capitol by “white supremacists” who are tied to “private paramilitary actors.” Although each state has various laws for private paramilitary groups, Mr. Raskin and Mr. Markey said the laws are often outdated, underenforced or ignored.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jan/11/congressional-democrats-move-to-crack-down-on-mili/
OBSERVATION - Treading on dangerous ground and if the left manages to win both houses and the WH, this is an example of what they will try to inflict on America.
Let me make it very clear, if some still can’t see it. Patriot and militia groups are already throughly penetrated by govt agents and informers. The majority of the protestors at the Malhur standoff many years ago were of that ilk. The tyrants cannot afford to have not only armed, but trained opposition to their plans and efforts. This bill has very little to no chance of being passed under current conditions. But elections have consequences.
Key item to note - following the 2020 BLM/Antifa riots, the leftists began a large effort to train its followers in weapons usage and, yes, military tactics. Should, God forbid, this kind of legislation get passed, you can be sure that the two tier justice system will protect leftist militias while going after those considered to be on the right.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
There have been increased warnings of potential Hezbollah/Iranian terror attacks here in the US or against US interests globally as a result of the attack on Houthi facilities.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
The price of oil has spiked 4% this morning after UK and US forces carried out military strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. A barrel of Brent crude is currently at $80.55.
OBSERVATION - Based on fears that Iran would do something to impede the flow of oil thru the Straits of Hormuz in support of the Houthis .
***
The U.S. federal government posted a December deficit of $129 billion, up $44 billion or 52% from a year earlier as outlays rose while receipts fell from December 2022 levels that were swelled by pandemic-deferred tax payments, the U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday.
The Treasury said that outlays for December rose 3% to $559 billion, a December record, partly as a result of higher Social Security outlays and interest on the public debt. Receipts for the month fell 6% to $429 billion.
For the first three months of the 2024 fiscal year that started Oct. 1, the federal deficit reached $510 billion, up $89 billion, or 21% from the year ago period.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/u-s-budget-drficit/2024/01/11/id/1149247/
OBSERVATION - There is no limiter, biden continues to throw money at an ever increasing rate to his causes - absent congressional budgetary approval, under loopholes in the law and ‘emergency’ declarations. This is setting the county up for the govt side of an economic crash desired by the WEF, in order to create a disaster of such magnitude (one of there many options) to force a global economic reset.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
White recruitment has collapsed in the US army, leading to the smallest military force in 80 years:
2018: 44,042 white recruits
2023: 25,070 white recruits
OBSERVATION - Repeating myself. Why join a military who’s command structure (president on down) has over the past years demonized whites as racist, homophobic domestic terrorists and has openly stabbed the military in the back - most egregiously via the wuhan jab mandates.
What is missing is that these numbers are desirable from the progressive leftists and their push to reinstate the draft. That will be the next step in dragging the military down.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
See “Globalism / Great Reset” regarding “disease X”
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Govt funding thru the end of FY24 is still in question as speaker johnson is facing push back from both sides of the aisle.
Illegal Immigration –
Cross file the following under CW2 as well -
The state of Texas has seized all city property along the riverfront at the border in the Eagle Pass area under governors emergency powers, including federal processing locations and equipment.
All access to the property is limited to state authority only. Border Patrol will be permitted to enter the property to remove their equipment and supplies—Agents will not have access to the area unless there is a medical emergency.
Reports are that the state plans to start arresting all who cross for criminal trespass. Razor wire barriers are being installed to replace those torn down by the feds.
OBSERVATION - This is quite the shot across the bow of the feds. Eagle Pass has been seeing upwards of 4000 illegals / day crossing - all facilitated by border patrol. So far in the courtroom Texas has been on the winning side - especially with its barriers and forbidding the BP from cutting the wire. This latest act will be extremely hard IMHO for the feds to fight - clearly actions TX is allowed to take. This is a huge pushback to the regime .
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
Chinese high-altitude balloon flights through Taiwan’s ADIZ have become a daily occurrence and are likely part of a CCP effort to test Taiwan’s responses and wear down its threat awareness.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted this years ago as the Taiwan situation started to heat up. Constant probing of the defenses can lead to a lowering of one’s guard and the creation of a sense of normality. This lulling into a false sense of security was nearly fatal to israel when Egypt and Syria launched surprise attack that started the Yon Kipper War - following what seemed to be another ‘routine’ military exercise.
***
Taiwan has its national elections tomorrow. Pro independence candidates appear to have edge in pre-election polls. Results could tip the balance and cause China to move towards a blockade.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov stated on Jan. 10 that the Russian military plans to reorganize the five existing naval infantry brigades of Russia’s fleets into naval infantry divisions and the Caspian Flotilla’s naval infantry regiment into a naval infantry brigade in the medium-term.
NOTE Russian marine units, along with their airborne forces, have borne the brunt of some of the most significant fighting and are generally considered to have lost so much equipment and men that they are forces in name only. This reorganization looks to still be undermanned and under equipped.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Russia continued its assault on the Adviivka area with no discernible success. Resurgence of Russian artillery is becoming more prevalent with artillery strikes along most of the eastern and southern front.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Poland –
New PM Tusk has been arresting members of the press who disagree with him and recently stormed the Presidential Palace arresting two opposition Conservative members of parliament
Now things are coming unraveled as tens (hundreds) of thousands of people have reportedly taken to the streets and numbers are growing.
OBSERVATION - This has all the makings of another popular uprising that has hit eastern European countries over the past few years. Tusk won by a very slim margin, a very progressive leftist in what has historically been a very conservative country. Tusk is closely attached to the EU and globalist entities affiliated with the WEF. This has the markings of a ‘color’ type revolt.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US and UK forces, leading a multinational force, stuck Houthi targets.
- International Court of Justice convened in S Africa to hear charges of genocide against Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Main combat operations in the north of Gaza have come to an end, though there is still an IDF presence.
The IDF has struck again at Hamas infrastructure in Gaza over the past 24 hours, eliminating dozens of terrorists, including leaders of Hamas’s Nukhba forces, the military stated on Friday morning.
In Khan Yunis, an IDF fighter jet struck a Hamas military compound and killed seven terrorists. One of the terrorists killed was a Nukhba commander who took part in the October 7 massacre.
Israeli forces in Khan Younis have also exposed over 300 tunnel shafts so far, destroyed 100 tunnels, uncovered arms depots below ground; Israeli army says mission led by engineering & special forces using advanced tech.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army Spokesman - We will continue to move against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Overnight, over a dozen Houthi facilities in Western Yemen were targeted by U.S. and British Aircraft, ranging from Training Facilities and Storage Sites to Anti-Ship and Anti-Air Missile Sites. These sites were located around the cities/towns of Sana’a, Saada, Dhamar, Al Hudaydah, Taizz, Abas and Zabid .
US and UK forces received support from Australia, the Netherlands, Bahrain, and Canada. British Tornado fighter bombers joined over 15 F/A-18 Super Hornet strike fighters (and other support aircraft) from the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Warships and submarines in the region joined in by firing cruise missiles. Other munitions included with well over 100 precision-guided munitions from Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missiles to AGM-88 HARM Air-to-Surface Anti-Radiation Missiles.
There were iInitial reports that the Houthis responded by launching missiles in the direction of the Red Sea. Also false reports concerning the loss of a US jet (F-22) as well as a US ship being hit.
Battle damage assessment likely to be out some time later today. There is a potential for follow-on strikes later at night (local).
Map of areas targeted in link below -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GDnA3PdXkAAls2q?format=jpg&name=small
Houthis - We will continue to target Israeli ships or those heading to Israel in the Red Sea. They have also warned Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE that if they open their airspace to the US and UK, they will officially be at war with them.
Across the region, alerts were issued. Warning sirens have been sounding at the US Embassy, Baghdad, Iraq, at this moment in time there isn’t believed to be an actual rocket attack.
According to U.S. Defense Officials, air defense batteries including MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East have been placed on high alert in preparation for Houthi or Iranian retaliation.
The Caspian fleet of the Iranian navy is on Alert
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - a Nato ally - criticizes the strikes calling them “disproportionate” and accused the UK and US of trying to turn the Red Sea into a “sea of blood”.
***
Iran-backed militias targeted the Conoco military base in eastern Deir ez-Zur
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for a drone attack on U.S. forces, western Qamishli. Iran-backed telegram channels claim that the attack targeted CIA HQ in the area
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The International Court of Justice in The Hague, Netherlands, convened on Thursday to hear South Africa’s prosecution accusing Israel of genocide, the most serious accusation the court can hear. The first hearing lasted about three hours, covering South Africa’s claims of genocide. Besides the charge of genocide, South Africa is asking the court to grant temporary relief by ordering Israel to stop the war.
The Turkish President: We believe that the International Court of Justice will condemn Israel
The United Nations Human Rights Office: Israel has “repeatedly failed” to respect international humanitarian law
NOTE - The UN thru Hamas has directly supported international terrorism
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Voices are already squealing that we have attacked Yemen. This is where biden’s removal of the terrorist designation has come back to bite him and the US. You don’t need declarations of war from the congress to hit terrorists, that’s been pretty well established. Without that designation - well, the voices will be raised over it.
On the face of it, this was a pretty good strike. As I’ve been saying, for them to understand the meaning of the word NO, they have to be hit hard. This was a good start, but we will likely have to do it again and het next time even harder.
I expect the Houthis to try to double down on Red Sea attacks, and maybe even take a swat at Saudi Arabia for good measure.
Now the question is will Iran try to do something to help the Houthi besides providing intel and targeting data? At this stage I think Iran will limit itself to nasty commentary and urging the other ‘resistance forces’ to increase attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Civil war alert
Violence and fighting are decreasing as the military gains control of the streets. Most prisons remain under the controls of the gangs but for now are contained by law enforcement and the military. The reality is Ecuador is facing either an entrenched armed conflict, or moving ever closer to becoming a full “narco-state”.
They *warn* us so that they look like the good guys for being excellent prognosticators, when it's become obvious that it's simply what they are planning.
Then they can come along and say they were right and offer us a *solution* for the problem they created.
Stay safe - that's COLD...In Jack London's short story 'To Build a Fire' he mentions at -75 spit turns to ice before it hits the ground. Not sure about -39...
-37 and falling as I write. Putting this in some sort of perspective - there is over 100 degrees of temperature difference between the temperature in the house vs outside.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Google has reportedly launched a new data collection project, hiring a contractor to gather facial recognition data from children, offering $50 to parents for their child’s participation.
404 Media reports that the project revolves around Google collecting specific data, including eyelid shape and skin tone of children. Parents are asked to film their children wearing various props, such as hats and sunglasses. TELUS, acting on Google’s behalf, is paying parents $50 for this data collection effort. The primary objective of this project is to build datasets for machine learning, artificial intelligence, and facial recognition technologies.
Participants in the project are required to be minors, specifically aged between 13 and 17 years. The process involves taking multiple short videos, each under 40 seconds, with the overall task expected to take 30 to 45 minutes. The project insists that the filming of children be done on private premises, not in public spaces, and requires parental consent.
Google’s latest data collection scheme is particularly troubling based on the fact that it was revealed in December that AI training datasets include child pornography
OBSERVATION - All about refining facial recognition software for future population control - much like what China is actually using today. The child porn aspect is further worrisome, will AI child porn skirt the law because computer generated children are used, so no ‘real’ children are harmed? Globalists have a great interest in multiple forms of perversion and in particular child porn and direct sex.
***
The WHO trans guideline committee will be meeting Feb 19 - 21 to finalize guidelines for global transgendering ‘rights’.
According to the WHO, the guidelines will focus on five areas:
1 Provision of gender-affirming care, including hormones
2 Health workers education and training for the provision of gender-inclusive care
3 Provision of health care for trans and gender diverse people who suffered interpersonal violence based in their needs
4 Health policies that support gender-inclusive care
5 Legal recognition of self-determined gender identity
OBSERVATION - These ‘guidelines’ will easily be folded into the WHO ‘pandemic’ treaty as a global health emergency to force it on the world.
BTW, the WHO assigned a radical, pro-Trans advocate to lead the group, that is also composed of other radical advocates.
***
Farmers, supported by truckers and even the railroads, continue their massive multi-day protests against new German laws and taxes designed to close down farming in favor of EU climate change standards.
***
REUTERS – The most talked-about person in Davos next week will be nowhere near the Swiss mountain resort. As politicians, financiers and chief executives converge for this year’s World Economic Forum, Donald Trump will be 7,500 kilometres away in Iowa, starting his quest to win the U.S. Republican Party’s presidential nomination for the third time. Even so, his possible return to the White House will pervade Davos discussions on topics ranging from Ukraine, China, trade, and climate change.
OBSERVATION - Globalist concerns will fuel (and fund) greater efforts to keep Trump from being reelected president. IMHO, this includes even going as far as seeking a way to assassinate him. His America First policies threaten their attempt to subjugate the US to WEF/globalist controls.
***
The Biden administration proposed a new regulation Friday that would impose fines on oil and gas companies for methane emissions, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced.
The policy would require companies to pay a penalty of $900 per every ton of methane emitted beyond limits established by the government starting this year, with the cost for each ton above the government’s thresholds increasing to $1,200 in 2025 and jumping to $1,500 in 2026 and beyond, according to the EPA. While the agency touts the proposal as a tool to reduce methane emissions, energy producers have slammed it for adding complexity to the regulatory environment and potentially driving up energy costs for consumers.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/12/biden-admin-unveils-natural-gas-tax-proposal/
OBSERVATION - EPA/biden following the tyrannical lead of the WEF and affiliated globalist interests in making it too costly for the energy sector to continue to produce oil and gas. Get ready for the new dark ages folks.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Weekend is here and there are quite a number of pro-hamas protests scattered across the country. The biggest to watch is today’s march on DC.
***
See “Illegal Immigration” below on the growing conflict between TX and the feds over property control along the border. The border is becoming a pivotal issue in the resurgent effort for TX to leave the union.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
There is still a lot of mixed forecasts for 2024, particularly regarding the recession, or lack there of.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Increasing action by some House Republicans to seek accountability of regime henchmen via impeachment.. That is well and good, except that other than show, it will do nothing since the Senate, even if under Republican control, will not convict and remove the administration officials or even biden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden received a rude welcome from swing-state voters who mercilessly heckled him during a Friday trip to Pennsylvania. He was met with shouts of “Go home, Joe!” and “You’re a loser!” by residents of an Allentown-area house as he walked into a bicycle store, according to a pool report.
He was also seen creeping out a teen girl, who moved away from his advances.
Illegal Immigration –
In overnight DOJ filing, Feds confirm that the TX National Guard “has deployed armed soldiers and vehicles to block federal gov from accessing the river” in Eagle Pass, & TX informed them no BP agents will be allowed to enter Shelby Park “in any operational capacity”. Videos showed feds being turned away from the park after being denied entrance.
OBSERVATION - TX has a good basis for its argument - the feds are violating immigration law by facilitating entry by illegal aliens. Permitting an ‘invasion’ and TX activating its constitutional right to defend against same. Clearly, this will likely be one of the first big state vs federal conflicts of 2024.
***
Mitch McConnell has sold out the country. The Senate GOP leadership’s draft border deal with the White House would reward illegal migration and encourage more foreign graduates to take jobs from American graduates, says the Immigration Accountability Project.
It essentially authorizes the Biden administration to continue to catch and release people into the country. It authorizes them to give them work permits [to illegal migrants and] authorizes them to grant parole [legal status] to everybody that they’re able to funnel to a port of entry.
The Republicans got played by the Democrats, he said. “The Republicans went to the auto shop to get their car fixed and walked out with a broken cup holder,” said Chmielenski, who posted the details in a tweet:
Border deal would:
1) Increase green cards by 50,000/year
2) Work permits for adult children of H-1B holders
3) Immediate work permits to every illegal alien released from custody
4) Taxpayer funded lawyers to certain UACs and mentally incompetent aliens
5) Expulsion authority for a limited number of days ONLY if encounters exceed 5k/day over a seven day period
6) Restricts parole for those who enter without authorization between ports of entry
OBSERVATION - This bill will only make matters worse on the border, as even more will rush in to cash in on these golden tickets.
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
Lai Ching-te, the winner of Saturday’s presidential election, thanked the people of Taiwan for “writing a new chapter” in his victory speech.
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” the 64-year-old said.”The Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces to influence this election,” Lai also said in reference to alleged attempts by China to sway the vote for a more pro-Beijing party.
For the past eight years, the DPP’s now outgoing president Tsai Ing Wen had moved Taiwan away from Beijing’s orbit closer to the United States - increasingly angering Beijing.
William Lai is likely to continue with the Party’s strong self governing stance - and China has already issued staunch warnings against any moves for independence.
Lai said he is “determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threat and intimidation from China” and will maintain the cross-strait status quo.
OBSERVATION - In spite of China’s efforts to influence the election, their worst case scenario was elected. I expect China’s response to be furious verbally, with a probability of increased air/sea intrusions and perhaps another ‘exercise’ practicing for a potential blockaide of the island. Lai has reportedly been careful in his post election interviews with reporters, avoiding potential statements that could further inflame China.
***
Exports from China dropped by nearly 5 percent in 2023 as demand from Western nations waned over the past year, with the United States leading with a 13 percent decline. Beijing’s exports to the United States saw the largest decline, falling 13 percent in 2023. Exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union also fell. A notable exception to the trend was Russia, with Chinese exports jumping 47 percent.
China’s economy has been sputtering since wuhan. “[And, while] the Chinese government indicated recently that policy measures next year will prioritize development, the efficacy of the measures will be instrumental to curb downside risks to economic growth, which Fitch Ratings forecasts to slow to 4.6 percent in 2024 from 5.3 percent in 2023.”
In a Dec. 14 press release, the World Bank said that while China’s economic activity picked up in 2023, its economic performance has been “marked by volatility, ongoing deflationary pressures, and still weak consumer confidence.” It projected GDP growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year.
OBSERVATION - Severe economic woes will play an important role in any Chinese decision on action against Taiwan.
Is China in a position to act against Taiwan? The fundamental answer is yes, but those actions are limited. Xi’s recent purges of military leadership indicate he as concerns over officer loyalty as well as competency to some degree. A military action such as an invasion will require all branches of the military to be working on all cylinders as such an invasion would be on the scale of Normandy, and China has never launched an operation of that scale before, let alone an amphibious one. China has demonstrated that they could initiate a blockade of the island, however, this brings into question its readiness to fight a naval battle to maintain the blockade. With the current biden regime cast of clowns running the military, our willingness to challenge and break a blockade is highly questionable and in an election year, doubly so. Under a potential Trump administration, that perception would change. While a war could help pull the country out of some of its economic woes, it can also make matters worse, so an intensive, internal propaganda campaign will be needed to divert the citizens woes on the economy to the nationalistic reunification of the country. Guess bottom line is we are looking at perilous times this year in the western Pacific.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s defense minister Shin Wonsik said in an interview with Yonhap News published Thursday that NK’s cooperation with Russia on arms and ammo sales may be getting focused on the development of a reentry vehicle for their nuclear weapons and the world may see such a test soon. NK has demonstrated that they have missiles with the necessary range. There are just two components missing - demonstration that they have mastered the capability to down size the components necessary to spark a nuclear explosion to the size that can be carried by these missiles, and a reentry system that can prevent them from burning up as they reenter the atmosphere.
I would expect to see at least one underground test of the warhead, possibly an exoatmospheric (outside of the atmosphere) blast followed by reentry vehicle (absent warhead) tests. Russian technical ‘help’ could greatly accelerate NK’s program.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military. Skibitskyi stated that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater.
Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term. It is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. (ISW)
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Wildberries employees burned down the 100,000m² (25 acres) warehouse in Saint Petersburg in response to Putin’s raids at the location earlier today - masses of workers were arrested to be sent to fight in Ukraine. Wildberries is Russia’s Amazon ripoff.
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Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Russia launched another barrage of missiles overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 12 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 1 of 4 Kh-59 missile. Russian army also launched 7 S-300/S-400 missiles from Belgorod region, 3 Shahed drones, 6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, 6 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 6 ballistic Iskander-M missiles, and 2 Kh-31P missiles.
This missile attack caused Poland to scramble fighters and activate its air defense system.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia’s recent missile barrages indicate that they have identified gaps or seams in the Ukraine air defense network, and are directing the appropriate missiles that can exploit those gaps. Ukraine has put together a relatively effective ADA network of a hodge-podge of NATO and Russian systems but lack a lot of the more sophisticated systems that can take out the ballistic systems, meaning more Patriot systems are needed. Expect more Russia missile attacks every few days probably thru the end of February.
The Ukraine assessment of 462,000 Russian troops in the Ukraine theatre of operations may be on the high side, but Russia has been able to scrape together more and more for the fight. Key matter is the training and capability of these forces. Historically for this war, these conscripts have been poorly trained. Belarus has been helping train Russian conscripts, but those activities have been on the down side lately. The other aspect is the equipping. Personal gear is becoming old and outdated. There is a growing dependency of soldiers to strip fallen comrades of there weapons and personal equipment. At a higher level, Russia is running quickly out of its modern tank and APC forces, evidenced by more cold war era T-62 / T-54 tanks and MTLP APCs being used on the fronts. Modern equipment replacement is very slow - poor production practices and sanctions being key.
What this all wraps up as Russia can continue to conduct small scale offensive operations, but lacks the appropriate trained and equipped forces for a more substantial operations in the near and intermediate future.
Poland –
Protests in Poland against the tyrannical arrests of opposition by new leftist PM Tusk continue to grow.
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Poland scrambled fighters and activated air defense units in response to Russia’s missile attack on Ukraine overnight.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US and UK forces, launched followup strikes on Houthi installations and facilities.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
After talks between the Mossad and Qatari officials, Israel will send medicine to the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza for the 1st time since October 7, Israeli Prime Minister’s office says
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
After largely securing the northern Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Force continued to lead intense battles in its central and southern portions as it encircled the al-Bureij camp and advanced deeper into the town of Khan Younis. Currently, four IDF divisions are operating in the Gaza Strip, IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Daniel Hagari said in a press briefing on Thursday.
Rockets were fired from Gaza at Ashdod and communities near the Strip, in the first attack in some 34 hours
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Defense Officials state that U.S. Naval aircraft have carried out additional airstrikes tonight on Houthi rRadar and air defense sites in the Houthi Capital of Sana’a near Al-Dailami Air Force Base, as a response to an anti-ship ballistic missiles which were launched against a commercials Ship yesterday in the Gulf of Aden.
The Houthi movement threatened a “strong and effective response” after the United States carried out another strike in Yemen overnight.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Follow-up airstrikes against Houthi facilities shows that someone has their act together to some degree. The big airstrike of yesterday will not immediately stop the Houthi from continuing their attacks on shipping. Only continued pressure by US and allied forces via missile and bombing attacks will accomplish that. Some would say that the Saudis were incapable of defeating the Houthi. The reality is that, though well equipped, the Saudi forces were limited in numbers and in some cases, willingness. The Eisenhower CSG contains a ton of firepower. US planners should start factoring in strategic bombers for even heavier strikes.
Near term - Houthi attempts to step up interdiction of shipping. Hopefully US will respond quickly to those attacks with more and heavier airstrikes.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Civil war alert
Military / police now systematically locating and arresting narco-terrorist gang members across the country. Stability is returning as is a sense of normality. This action is far from being over though.