-37 and falling as I write. Putting this in some sort of perspective - there is over 100 degrees of temperature difference between the temperature in the house vs outside.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Google has reportedly launched a new data collection project, hiring a contractor to gather facial recognition data from children, offering $50 to parents for their child’s participation.
404 Media reports that the project revolves around Google collecting specific data, including eyelid shape and skin tone of children. Parents are asked to film their children wearing various props, such as hats and sunglasses. TELUS, acting on Google’s behalf, is paying parents $50 for this data collection effort. The primary objective of this project is to build datasets for machine learning, artificial intelligence, and facial recognition technologies.
Participants in the project are required to be minors, specifically aged between 13 and 17 years. The process involves taking multiple short videos, each under 40 seconds, with the overall task expected to take 30 to 45 minutes. The project insists that the filming of children be done on private premises, not in public spaces, and requires parental consent.
Google’s latest data collection scheme is particularly troubling based on the fact that it was revealed in December that AI training datasets include child pornography
OBSERVATION - All about refining facial recognition software for future population control - much like what China is actually using today. The child porn aspect is further worrisome, will AI child porn skirt the law because computer generated children are used, so no ‘real’ children are harmed? Globalists have a great interest in multiple forms of perversion and in particular child porn and direct sex.
***
The WHO trans guideline committee will be meeting Feb 19 - 21 to finalize guidelines for global transgendering ‘rights’.
According to the WHO, the guidelines will focus on five areas:
1 Provision of gender-affirming care, including hormones
2 Health workers education and training for the provision of gender-inclusive care
3 Provision of health care for trans and gender diverse people who suffered interpersonal violence based in their needs
4 Health policies that support gender-inclusive care
5 Legal recognition of self-determined gender identity
OBSERVATION - These ‘guidelines’ will easily be folded into the WHO ‘pandemic’ treaty as a global health emergency to force it on the world.
BTW, the WHO assigned a radical, pro-Trans advocate to lead the group, that is also composed of other radical advocates.
***
Farmers, supported by truckers and even the railroads, continue their massive multi-day protests against new German laws and taxes designed to close down farming in favor of EU climate change standards.
***
REUTERS – The most talked-about person in Davos next week will be nowhere near the Swiss mountain resort. As politicians, financiers and chief executives converge for this year’s World Economic Forum, Donald Trump will be 7,500 kilometres away in Iowa, starting his quest to win the U.S. Republican Party’s presidential nomination for the third time. Even so, his possible return to the White House will pervade Davos discussions on topics ranging from Ukraine, China, trade, and climate change.
OBSERVATION - Globalist concerns will fuel (and fund) greater efforts to keep Trump from being reelected president. IMHO, this includes even going as far as seeking a way to assassinate him. His America First policies threaten their attempt to subjugate the US to WEF/globalist controls.
***
The Biden administration proposed a new regulation Friday that would impose fines on oil and gas companies for methane emissions, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced.
The policy would require companies to pay a penalty of $900 per every ton of methane emitted beyond limits established by the government starting this year, with the cost for each ton above the government’s thresholds increasing to $1,200 in 2025 and jumping to $1,500 in 2026 and beyond, according to the EPA. While the agency touts the proposal as a tool to reduce methane emissions, energy producers have slammed it for adding complexity to the regulatory environment and potentially driving up energy costs for consumers.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/12/biden-admin-unveils-natural-gas-tax-proposal/
OBSERVATION - EPA/biden following the tyrannical lead of the WEF and affiliated globalist interests in making it too costly for the energy sector to continue to produce oil and gas. Get ready for the new dark ages folks.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- Jan 13th - prohamas March on DC
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Weekend is here and there are quite a number of pro-hamas protests scattered across the country. The biggest to watch is today’s march on DC.
***
See “Illegal Immigration” below on the growing conflict between TX and the feds over property control along the border. The border is becoming a pivotal issue in the resurgent effort for TX to leave the union.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
There is still a lot of mixed forecasts for 2024, particularly regarding the recession, or lack there of.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Increasing action by some House Republicans to seek accountability of regime henchmen via impeachment.. That is well and good, except that other than show, it will do nothing since the Senate, even if under Republican control, will not convict and remove the administration officials or even biden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden received a rude welcome from swing-state voters who mercilessly heckled him during a Friday trip to Pennsylvania. He was met with shouts of “Go home, Joe!” and “You’re a loser!” by residents of an Allentown-area house as he walked into a bicycle store, according to a pool report.
He was also seen creeping out a teen girl, who moved away from his advances.
Illegal Immigration –
In overnight DOJ filing, Feds confirm that the TX National Guard “has deployed armed soldiers and vehicles to block federal gov from accessing the river” in Eagle Pass, & TX informed them no BP agents will be allowed to enter Shelby Park “in any operational capacity”. Videos showed feds being turned away from the park after being denied entrance.
OBSERVATION - TX has a good basis for its argument - the feds are violating immigration law by facilitating entry by illegal aliens. Permitting an ‘invasion’ and TX activating its constitutional right to defend against same. Clearly, this will likely be one of the first big state vs federal conflicts of 2024.
***
Mitch McConnell has sold out the country. The Senate GOP leadership’s draft border deal with the White House would reward illegal migration and encourage more foreign graduates to take jobs from American graduates, says the Immigration Accountability Project.
It essentially authorizes the Biden administration to continue to catch and release people into the country. It authorizes them to give them work permits [to illegal migrants and] authorizes them to grant parole [legal status] to everybody that they’re able to funnel to a port of entry.
The Republicans got played by the Democrats, he said. “The Republicans went to the auto shop to get their car fixed and walked out with a broken cup holder,” said Chmielenski, who posted the details in a tweet:
Border deal would:
1) Increase green cards by 50,000/year
2) Work permits for adult children of H-1B holders
3) Immediate work permits to every illegal alien released from custody
4) Taxpayer funded lawyers to certain UACs and mentally incompetent aliens
5) Expulsion authority for a limited number of days ONLY if encounters exceed 5k/day over a seven day period
6) Restricts parole for those who enter without authorization between ports of entry
OBSERVATION - This bill will only make matters worse on the border, as even more will rush in to cash in on these golden tickets.
China –
Important dates of notice -
13 January 2024 - Taiwan general election
*****
Lai Ching-te, the winner of Saturday’s presidential election, thanked the people of Taiwan for “writing a new chapter” in his victory speech.
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” the 64-year-old said.”The Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces to influence this election,” Lai also said in reference to alleged attempts by China to sway the vote for a more pro-Beijing party.
For the past eight years, the DPP’s now outgoing president Tsai Ing Wen had moved Taiwan away from Beijing’s orbit closer to the United States - increasingly angering Beijing.
William Lai is likely to continue with the Party’s strong self governing stance - and China has already issued staunch warnings against any moves for independence.
Lai said he is “determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threat and intimidation from China” and will maintain the cross-strait status quo.
OBSERVATION - In spite of China’s efforts to influence the election, their worst case scenario was elected. I expect China’s response to be furious verbally, with a probability of increased air/sea intrusions and perhaps another ‘exercise’ practicing for a potential blockaide of the island. Lai has reportedly been careful in his post election interviews with reporters, avoiding potential statements that could further inflame China.
***
Exports from China dropped by nearly 5 percent in 2023 as demand from Western nations waned over the past year, with the United States leading with a 13 percent decline. Beijing’s exports to the United States saw the largest decline, falling 13 percent in 2023. Exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union also fell. A notable exception to the trend was Russia, with Chinese exports jumping 47 percent.
China’s economy has been sputtering since wuhan. “[And, while] the Chinese government indicated recently that policy measures next year will prioritize development, the efficacy of the measures will be instrumental to curb downside risks to economic growth, which Fitch Ratings forecasts to slow to 4.6 percent in 2024 from 5.3 percent in 2023.”
In a Dec. 14 press release, the World Bank said that while China’s economic activity picked up in 2023, its economic performance has been “marked by volatility, ongoing deflationary pressures, and still weak consumer confidence.” It projected GDP growth to slow to 4.5 percent this year.
OBSERVATION - Severe economic woes will play an important role in any Chinese decision on action against Taiwan.
Is China in a position to act against Taiwan? The fundamental answer is yes, but those actions are limited. Xi’s recent purges of military leadership indicate he as concerns over officer loyalty as well as competency to some degree. A military action such as an invasion will require all branches of the military to be working on all cylinders as such an invasion would be on the scale of Normandy, and China has never launched an operation of that scale before, let alone an amphibious one. China has demonstrated that they could initiate a blockade of the island, however, this brings into question its readiness to fight a naval battle to maintain the blockade. With the current biden regime cast of clowns running the military, our willingness to challenge and break a blockade is highly questionable and in an election year, doubly so. Under a potential Trump administration, that perception would change. While a war could help pull the country out of some of its economic woes, it can also make matters worse, so an intensive, internal propaganda campaign will be needed to divert the citizens woes on the economy to the nationalistic reunification of the country. Guess bottom line is we are looking at perilous times this year in the western Pacific.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s defense minister Shin Wonsik said in an interview with Yonhap News published Thursday that NK’s cooperation with Russia on arms and ammo sales may be getting focused on the development of a reentry vehicle for their nuclear weapons and the world may see such a test soon. NK has demonstrated that they have missiles with the necessary range. There are just two components missing - demonstration that they have mastered the capability to down size the components necessary to spark a nuclear explosion to the size that can be carried by these missiles, and a reentry system that can prevent them from burning up as they reenter the atmosphere.
I would expect to see at least one underground test of the warhead, possibly an exoatmospheric (outside of the atmosphere) blast followed by reentry vehicle (absent warhead) tests. Russian technical ‘help’ could greatly accelerate NK’s program.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military. Skibitskyi stated that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater.
Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term. It is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation. (ISW)
***
Wildberries employees burned down the 100,000m² (25 acres) warehouse in Saint Petersburg in response to Putin’s raids at the location earlier today - masses of workers were arrested to be sent to fight in Ukraine. Wildberries is Russia’s Amazon ripoff.
.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Russia launched another barrage of missiles overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 12 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 1 of 4 Kh-59 missile. Russian army also launched 7 S-300/S-400 missiles from Belgorod region, 3 Shahed drones, 6 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles, 6 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 6 ballistic Iskander-M missiles, and 2 Kh-31P missiles.
This missile attack caused Poland to scramble fighters and activate its air defense system.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia’s recent missile barrages indicate that they have identified gaps or seams in the Ukraine air defense network, and are directing the appropriate missiles that can exploit those gaps. Ukraine has put together a relatively effective ADA network of a hodge-podge of NATO and Russian systems but lack a lot of the more sophisticated systems that can take out the ballistic systems, meaning more Patriot systems are needed. Expect more Russia missile attacks every few days probably thru the end of February.
The Ukraine assessment of 462,000 Russian troops in the Ukraine theatre of operations may be on the high side, but Russia has been able to scrape together more and more for the fight. Key matter is the training and capability of these forces. Historically for this war, these conscripts have been poorly trained. Belarus has been helping train Russian conscripts, but those activities have been on the down side lately. The other aspect is the equipping. Personal gear is becoming old and outdated. There is a growing dependency of soldiers to strip fallen comrades of there weapons and personal equipment. At a higher level, Russia is running quickly out of its modern tank and APC forces, evidenced by more cold war era T-62 / T-54 tanks and MTLP APCs being used on the fronts. Modern equipment replacement is very slow - poor production practices and sanctions being key.
What this all wraps up as Russia can continue to conduct small scale offensive operations, but lacks the appropriate trained and equipped forces for a more substantial operations in the near and intermediate future.
Poland –
Protests in Poland against the tyrannical arrests of opposition by new leftist PM Tusk continue to grow.
***
Poland scrambled fighters and activated air defense units in response to Russia’s missile attack on Ukraine overnight.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US and UK forces, launched followup strikes on Houthi installations and facilities.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
After talks between the Mossad and Qatari officials, Israel will send medicine to the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza for the 1st time since October 7, Israeli Prime Minister’s office says
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
After largely securing the northern Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Force continued to lead intense battles in its central and southern portions as it encircled the al-Bureij camp and advanced deeper into the town of Khan Younis. Currently, four IDF divisions are operating in the Gaza Strip, IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Daniel Hagari said in a press briefing on Thursday.
Rockets were fired from Gaza at Ashdod and communities near the Strip, in the first attack in some 34 hours
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Defense Officials state that U.S. Naval aircraft have carried out additional airstrikes tonight on Houthi rRadar and air defense sites in the Houthi Capital of Sana’a near Al-Dailami Air Force Base, as a response to an anti-ship ballistic missiles which were launched against a commercials Ship yesterday in the Gulf of Aden.
The Houthi movement threatened a “strong and effective response” after the United States carried out another strike in Yemen overnight.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Follow-up airstrikes against Houthi facilities shows that someone has their act together to some degree. The big airstrike of yesterday will not immediately stop the Houthi from continuing their attacks on shipping. Only continued pressure by US and allied forces via missile and bombing attacks will accomplish that. Some would say that the Saudis were incapable of defeating the Houthi. The reality is that, though well equipped, the Saudi forces were limited in numbers and in some cases, willingness. The Eisenhower CSG contains a ton of firepower. US planners should start factoring in strategic bombers for even heavier strikes.
Near term - Houthi attempts to step up interdiction of shipping. Hopefully US will respond quickly to those attacks with more and heavier airstrikes.
Central / South America General-
Ecuador - Civil war alert
Military / police now systematically locating and arresting narco-terrorist gang members across the country. Stability is returning as is a sense of normality. This action is far from being over though.
Keep the fire going... In my part of Florida it's 60 degrees right now... our sweater weather.
Still cold, -21, but this time next weekend looking at highs in the low +40s.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Meeting on Ukrainian peace formula at the level of advisors to leaders has started in Davos. Looks like the WEF seeking to end their war.
***
Bureaucrats with ties to the World Economic Forum (WEF) are demanding powers to legally euthanize children.
WEF-linked officials in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Human Rights Commission are pushing new laws that would see minors killed for “their own dignity.”
Australia’s new Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill of 2023 has drawn the attention of those who wish to see assisted death opened to those under the age of 18.
OBSERVATION - The article summarizes it well -
“Allowing children to request legal suicide is a dangerous proposition when it is known that decision-making skills are not fully developed in humans until their early twenties.
Minors may also be more easily influenced or coerced by caregiver and parental decisions, friend groups, and social media — all of which may make voluntary assisted suicide appear as the best solution to their pain.”
This same fixation on coercing children into transgenderism and sexual behavior is now expanding to include suicide. As noted before on other WEF / Globalism issues, Australia is acting as a beta test bed for these diabolical proposals.
***
This year’s Davos may be the last hurrah for Kerry as climate czar. Reports are that he will leave the administration later this winter, and plans to help President Biden’s campaign, according to Axios.
OBSERVATION - ketchup boy will still parrot globalist goals. But biden must be desperate to bring this loser on board to help his ailing campaign.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
March for Gaza” protesters, many waving red and green Palestinian flags, gathered by the thousands in Washington, D.C., Saturday to call for a cease-fire in Gaza and for the United States to quit providing aid to Israel, joining in a day of worldwide pro-Palestinian marches in cities including Rome, London, Paris, Dublin, Johannesburg, and Kuala Lumpur.
The protests in D.C. centered in Freedom Plaza, just blocks from the White House, with busloads of demonstrators arriving from across the United States to protest the war and the American support for Israel’s bombing campaign that has been going on since Oct. 7, when Hamas fighters attacked in Israel, reports The Washington Post.
The rally was organized by several groups, including the American Muslim Task Force for Palestine, and marked the second largest pro-Palestinian march in the nation’s capital since the war began.
These marchers just couldn’t hold back their violent tendencies and later moved to try to penetrate the security fences surrounding the White House. All non-essential White House staff were evacuated as massive group of pro-Houthi and pro Hamas protesters push up on the fences on Pennsylvania Avenue.. Some protestors managed breached the WH gate and other scaled the wall.
Police and Secret Service personnel rushed to the scene to secure it. There they faced thrown water bottles and rocks. No word on injuries.
NOTE - biden was not at the WH when this occurred but in Pennsylvania (?). I’ve not seen reports on any arrests yet either.
IN RELATED
A large crowd of protesters who denounced Israel’s military actions in Gaza were trying to shut down the Port of Oakland on Saturday morning.
Hundreds of people blocked the entrance to the port, which they say is used to ship military equipment to Israel. The crowd gathered before dawn, trying to prevent port workers from getting to their jobs.
OBSERVATION - Violent islamic supporters with supportive Antifa elements are pushing towards more aggressive marches, to say the least. Democrats are not exempt as the attack on the WH demonstrates. This is similar to the raw power push by BLM and Antifa in their west coast strongholds of Portland and Seattle - to keep the progressive city leadership cowed.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin remains in hospital in “good condition” following treatment for prostate cancer, the Pentagon has said.
In a statement, it said Mr Austin had resumed some of his duties and is in “contact with his senior staff”.
It added that there was no specific date for his release from hospital.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
January 19 - funding for federal transportation programs, housing and food plans and other resources will expire.
February 2 - funding for Departments of Health and Human Services, Commerce, Labor, State and Defense will expire
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Congressional leaders have agreed on a two-tranche stopgap spending bill to keep the federal government funded into March and avert a partial government shutdown starting late next week, according to multiple reports Saturday.
The short-term continuing resolution will keep in place Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) two-part approach, in which four appropriations bills would be funded until March 1, and the remaining eight will be funded until March 8, according to two sources familiar with the matter. During that time frame, Congress would work to write and pass appropriations bills at the top-line agreement between the two chambers of $1.66 billion.
OBSERVATION - Speaker Johnson really stepped in it when the bill to cover the full year was revealed. It contained everything that got McCarthy kicked out of the chair for. Johnson is not out of the woods yet, as he will be facing the funding fight in the middle of campaign season.
***
Iowa Caucuses on this week, and motivation is high and the blizzard conditions do not appear to be a threat to turnout. Trump is by all polls maintaining a massive lead.
Illegal Immigration –
Speaker Johnson basically rendered Sen (RINO) Lankford’s Senate Immigration Deal dead on arrival. As noted yesterday, this bill is nothing but a massive amnesty bill.
***
The Texas National Guard is now using riot shields to stop the massive inflow of illegal immigrants in Eagle Pass, Texas.
OBSERVATION - A few illegals managed force their way in before the Guard established a reinforced barrier. These illegals were arrested. This is a huge challenge to biden and DHS now that force is beginning to be used to stanch the flow of illegals.
***
Maine taxpayers are footing the bill for new apartments built specifically for illegal immigrants. They have *two years worth of rent paid for by state taxpayers.
OBSERVATION - We have millions of American CITIZENS on the streets, and Maine is paying the tab for illegals to live off our taxes. I certainly hope lawsuits quickly hit them.
China –
Taiwan election - Joe Biden says US does not support independence. The US congratulated Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai Ching-te, but also sought to reassure Beijing. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Washington is ‘committed to maintaining cross-strait peace and stability’
***
China dismissed the outcome of Taiwan’s Saturday elections, saying its ruling Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream public opinion after it failed to win a majority in the presidential and legislative votes.
“Taiwan is China’s Taiwan,” Chen Binhua, the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said on Saturday after DPP’s Lai Ching-te emerged as the winner of the self-governing island’s presidential contest with more than 40% of the popular vote.
OBSERVATION - China invested a lot of effort and political capitol in trying to defeat the DPP.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russia’s power grid has seriously collapsed in the face of a fridgid arctic air mass. Operator of Russian power grid Rosseti imposed schedule of rolling blackouts in Rostov region. Rolling blackouts also reported for the Moscow region. Blackouts in several district of Rostov-on-Don and Bataisk.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the single digits to 20s degree F range with on again, off again snow. Lows 0 to the teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Kherson Axis -
For 3 months the Russian army has been trying & failing to destroy Ukraine’s small southern bridgehead on the southern bank of the Dnipro river anchored by Ukrainian defenses in the village of Krynky.
Ukraine has established a degree of ‘drone superiority’ in the region, detecting and hitting Russian forces early and often, breaking up attacks and inflicting severe losses. Russians say that they enter a ‘hornets nest” of drones, apparently working in pairs, with the first drone hitting the main target with the second monitoring the strike, then swooping in to clean up.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues to conduct search and clearing operations in central and S Gaza. N Gaza is essentially been subdued. Fighting is the fiercest in S Gaza and IDF continues to work its way into the major Hamas strongholds in Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
The Israeli army reports that 4 Hezbollah militants who infiltrated from Lebanon into the Kafr Shuba area were killed.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Armed factions in Iraq say they targeted an American base in northeastern Syria.
***
Local Houthi sources state that a naval base in the Dune area was hit by aerial bombs. US denies making the attack. Israel is believed to be the source - though no word if they used aircraft (likely F-35) or cruise missiles.
***
President Biden says the US has delivered a “private message” to Iran about the Houthis in Yemen after the US carried out a second strike on the group.
“We delivered it privately and we’re confident we’re well-prepared,” he said without giving further details.
The US said its latest strike was a “follow-on action” targeting radar.
Iran denies involvement in attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea.
However Tehran is suspected of supplying the Houthis with weapons, and the US says Iranian intelligence is critical to enabling them to target ships.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67967233
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
The Houthis have hit a pause as they reassess their tactics and targets. It is expected that they will continue drone / missile attacks on Red Sea shipping soon. CENTCOM seems to suggest that any further attacks will be quickly responded to with more airstrikes. We will have to see if this will be the case.
Iran –
biden ‘warned ‘ Iran following airstrikes on their proxy Houthi forces. Iran responded with a claim that they are not involved - a claim that was fully rejected and with good reason.
Iraq -
The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law is part of Iran’s decades-old effort to expel US forces from Iraq and the region.
OBSERVATION - Continuation of the push by Iranian supported politicians and militias. Given the amorphous foreign policy by the biden regimen I can expect that if the bills get passed and soon, we could see US forces pulling out before the election.
Syria -
Turkish Ministry of Defense: Air strikes hit 25 targets of Kurdish militants in northern Syria and Iraq.
NOTE - One of the largest airstrikes in many months.
Misc of Note –
Latest reports say that a new fissure has opened just north of Grindavik, the Icelandic town closest to where the latest eruption has taken place.
The lava is now only 50m (160 feet) away from the nearest houses.
The main road leading to Grindavik has been cut off, and the local mayor describes the situation as ominous.
This is the second volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula in south-west Iceland in a month, and the fifth since 2021.
OBSERVATION - Grindavik may be a loss. Initial reports indicate that the fissure eruption breached across the earthen barrier, making it virtually impossible to stop the flow.