Israel/Hezbollah and Venezuela remain today’s hot spots.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
In September the United Nations’ 79th General Assembly will host the highly-anticipated “Summit of the Future” where nations will sign the “Pact of the Future”, representing a major step towards the creation of a world government.
Although the UNGA is an annual meeting, this year’s gathering is unique because of the addition of the Summit of the Future, which will take place in New York City on the 22nd and 23rd of September. The summit has been in the making since at least 2022 after repeated calls by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to shift financial resources to rapidly complete the Agenda 2030 goals set by the UN in 2015.
The Summit of the Future website says the outcome of the Pact for the Future will be “a world - and an international system - that is better prepared to manage the challenges we face now”. The Pact for the Future is likely to be another piece of the shift towards a world governed by unelected internationalist politicians.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=7136#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - The globalist continue to advance their agenda. The UN is practically in the pocket of the WEF and has been for quite some time. The chess pieces are being put in position for when the great reset button is pushed.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
A pro-Hamas student group operating at New York University has reiterated its support for political violence and terrorism after being censured by the school, heightening concerns that the new academic year will see escalations of extremist activity on the campus.
“Decolonization and abolition are not metaphors. We uphold the right of any oppressed people to resist their oppression, by any means necessary,” the group, which calls itself NYU People’s Solidarity Coalition (NYU PSC), said in a “Statement of Intention.” “Resistance takes many forms, including armed struggle … As members of the NYU PSC, we will not condemn the brave actions of our allies nor will we limit ourselves to resistance through organizational means.”
Upon learning of the statement, long-time New York University spokesman John Beckman denounced political violence and implored the group remove its statement from social media.
“This university has zero tolerance for the use of violence, and is shocked that any members of our campus community would endorse ‘armed struggle’ as a ‘tactic,’” Beckman said. “We call upon the People’s Solidarity Coalition to immediately retract their statement and repudiate it, as well as related conduct such as vandalism, destruction of property, and threats and intimidation.”
He added, “Just to be crystal clear: NYU will respond to any threat or use of violence swiftly, decisively, and severely. Any violence will result in the immediate involvement of law enforcement as well as university disciplinary processes up to an including expulsion or dismissal.”
OBSERVATION - The violent, core pro-islam / pro-hamas elements in our nation’s colleges and universities continue to keep the fires lit. NYU is toothless and will do nothing, and these radicals know it. Their rhetoric defines a third front in a developing CW2 scenario where radical islamists will push for control, with or without the mindless cannon fodder of the left.
***
Amazon allowed a retailer to sell “The Only Good Trump Is a Dead One” apparel starting a week before – and for nearly two weeks after – a would-be assassin shot former President Donald Trump:
The t-shirts and hoodies reportedly went on sale July 6.
Trump was shot on July 13.
The apparel was pulled from Amazon on July 25, after news and images of it went viral on social media.
OBSERVATION - Much ado about this after the assassination attempt, now we see that they were for sale before. All part of the trend of the left to condition the sheeple for such an event, and encourage it.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
NOTE - the kinds of sabotage acts in France and other parts of Europe are examples of the mayhem that could be introduced here by agents of hostile countries that have entered the country within the tsunami of illegals .
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
Since January 2020 the debt has ballooned by 50% from $23 trillion to $35 trillion.
Interest on the debt is also skyrocketed with higher rates, averaging around 5% lately.
Interest on the debt is on pace for $1.5 trillion next year, about 30% of all govt revenue collected.
OBSERVATION - The regime has so far obfuscated the impacts to the sheeple from this out of control debt spending. The size of the budget consumed by debt servicing will soon come around and bite us seriously on the butt soon.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
In relation to pandemic preparedness, the “International Bird Flu Summit” at Washington DC is scheduled to start on October the 2nd and will go on for 3 days. It comprises conference and workshop sessions. You can check out the details of what will be covered here.
Does this seem all too familiar to you? Like Event 201, the October 2019 meeting in New York with the World Economic Forum? Is this a blatant indicator of a planned, soon to be wave of assault on we-the-people again with all its related medical tyranny in the form of another false flag disease psyop?
OBSERVATION - The attempt to raise the flag over bird flu is growing, along with big bucks going to big pharm like Modrna for another mRNA based ‘vaccine’. So far, in spite of the 50% mortality claims, none of those who’ve been recently infected here in the US have died, but only experienced relatively mild symptoms.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Members of the local SWAT team assigned to protect former President Donald Trump at his rally on July 13 have revealed that they had no contact with the Secret Service prior to an assassination attempt on the former president.
The shooting occurred on July 13 when a would-be assassin opened fire at Trump while he was addressing supporters.
During an exclusive interview with ABC News’ senior investigative correspondent Aaron Katersky, the officers detailed how a lack of communication and planning failures led to a critical delay in identifying and neutralizing the threat.
“They told us they had no communication with the Secret Service until after the gunfire started. This SWAT team saw the shooter. They recognized him as suspicious, even took pictures of him,” Katersky reported.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/inside-job-secret-service-would-not-allow-communications/
OBSERVATION - (This can also be crossed over to CW2) I haven’t commented on some of the fall out from the assassination attempt for a while now. But more and more evidence of almost deliberate measures to fail keep bubbling to the surface. One failure is coincidence, but the daisy chain of screwups all point to a deliberate effort to give the shooter all the cover necessary to get to the roof and shoot. Yes, the compounding of evidence is pointing to the fact that the shooter had assistance - and part of that assistance came from within the SS.
Biden / Harris Watch –
While a lot of names have been put forth for harris’ VP, there doesn’t appear to be anyone really pounding down the door to be selected. As I’ve said before, there is real danger in someone who will out shine harris.
Harris’ initial statements regarding the theft of the Venezuelan election infer that she is in agreement with Maduro’s violent seizure of power. To be noted - the whole Venezuelan election scheme was part of a biden/harris plan to remove sanctions in exchange for a ‘election’. Seems Maduro reneged on his part of the agreement - and harris approves.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
RUMINT –
F-16s reportedly seen flying in Ukraine airspace.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Air superiority has taken new meaning in the battle of the drones. Ukraine has taken charge with anti-drone drones, similar to conventional RC airplanes, but with FPV (First Person Viewing) control. They have been very effective taking out Russian surveillance drones - keeping its artillery safer from Russian counter battery fire. The Russian solution to this Ukrainian interference is to send more surveillance drones accompanied by attack drones as a way to overwhelm the Ukrainian air defense system. Sometimes this works, for a while, but the Ukrainians are generally faster to improvise and modify systems that don’t work until they do. Russian forces rely more on massive use of whatever they have. This sometimes works because, as the Russians like to point out, quantity has a quality all its own. That worked until it didn’t as the Ukrainians found ways to quickly overwhelm Russian defensive measures and destroy more of their artillery target spotting and reconnaissance drones in several areas.
Ground combat continues to be intense in the Avdiivka region, with growing reports of Russian successes.
Outlook —
Conditions continue to be challenging for Ukraine’s defensed in the east. Russia appears to be more than willing to throw large numbers of men and material into attacks, knowing massive losses will be incurred, just to be able to overwhelm Ukraine forces and gain a small amount of ground. Causalities for Russia continue to be sustained at more than 1000 per day. Tank lasses are severe in that more and more replacement tanks noted being shipped in are of the T54/55 variety and fewer T80 / T90 variants. I’ve noted some OSINT studies of the massive Russian mothballed tank yards and many analysts indicate that Russian will be hitting the replacement wall within a year.
Europe / NATO General –
France has experienced the second sabotage of critical infrastructure in just a few days.
Outage tracking website Netblocks confirmed on X, “Network data show disruptions to multiple internet providers in France amid reports of a fibre sabotage campaign targeting telecoms infrastructure during the Paris 2024 Olympics.”
Bloomberg reports that fiber lines operated by the telecommunications company SFR were cut during the overnight hours. Internet traffic in the southern and eastern regions of the country was disrupted and has since been rerouted.
On Monday, French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin confirmed that far-left extremists carried out the attack on the nation’s train network.
OBSERVATION - Much of the speculation is that these acts are being conducted by Russian agents in order to embarrass France, one of the loudest voices against in and supported of Ukraine.
***
Hungary has simplified entry conditions for Russians and Belarusians. Following Orban’s visit to Moscow, Budapest included citizens of Russia and Belarus in the “national card” program, which is issued to those applying for two-year employment in Hungary with the possibility of extension. There is now great concern that Russian spies could also enter the EU or that the Kremlin could deliberately smuggle Russians into the EU for attacks.
OBSERVATION - With growing evidence of espionage and sabotage in Europe by Russian agents, this action threatens to allow even more to come into Europe without screening.
Hungary under Orban has shifted dramatically into Russia’s circle of influence since the invasion of Ukraine and away from the EU controls.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More warnings from various govts for their citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
The US is leading diplomatic efforts to rein in an anticipated Israeli response to the deadly strike on the Golan. To keep this episode contained, the US is urging Israel not to strike Beirut, Dahiyeh, or civil infrastructure in Lebanon, sources tell reuters
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Army: The 98th Division completed its operations in Khan Yunis, south of the Gaza Strip
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli warplanes breached the sound barrier over Beirut and a number of Lebanese regions.
U.S. Embassy in Lebanon issued a video Monday urging Americans to leave the country before a crisis begins.
David Lammy, the foreign secretary for Great Britain, is urging all British nationals to leave Lebanon as tensions increase between Israel and Hezbollah.
British nationals are also urged to not visit the Middle Eastern country.
Reports of movement of air defense units and supplies north towards the border regions.
The Israeli army confirms carrying out a drone strike earlier today in southern Lebanon’s Mays al-Jabal, killing two Hezbollah operatives. Separately, the Israeli army says fighter jets struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Kafrhamam, used in a rocket attack on the Mount Dov area
Israeli army had confirmed that for the 2nd time in 2 days, a Hezbollah UAV was shot down by the C-Dome over the Mediterranean, as it was on its way to the Karish gas platform. NOTE: C-Dome is a naval version of Iron Dome.
A Hezbollah official told the Associated Press that the group had begun moving around some of its precision-guided missiles in preparation for massive Israeli strikes, which it would seek to answer in kind.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
US State Department: As long as Iranian groups are in Syria, the Golan must remain in security with Israel.
Reports of explosions in the western country side of Daraa, Syria. Suspected Israeli attack on Hezbollah/Iranian positions.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The new Iranian president: The Houthi movements are very important and put pressure on Israel
Egypt requests Oman to ask the Houthis to stop attacking shipping in the Red Sea since the attacks are wrecking the Egyptian economy due to loss of revenue from the Suez Canal. Houthi attacks are hurting Egypt more than they are hurting Israel
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Israeli Foreign Minister calls on NATO to expel Türkiye from its membership based on its threat to invade Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to prepare for action against Hezbollah. There are persistent rumors that the US may have leaked initial attack plans to Hezbollah and Iran, forcing Israel to recompute and re target. Israel has a window of a few days to make good on its promise to retaliate.
biden et al are doing their best to force Israel to scale back any retaliatory strike, much like what they did a few months back against Israel’s hit on Iran.
In spite of the pressure (and possible attempts to sabotage) the extent of the attacks, Israel is likely close to execution.
The big question being is Hezbollah feeling froggy enough to escalate its attacks? Are they ready to go full out or do more of a symbolic, albeit large, rocket barrage. Has Iran fixed its ballistic missile and drone problems to they to launch a attack as well? The next few day’s will tell.
Venezuela -
Massive protests continue in Caracas, Venezuela, against Nicolás Maduro’s alleged electoral fraud. Reports that soldiers have been shooting unarmed citizens. Arrests of those protesting are facing a 10 year jail term.
Venezuela has suspended its diplomatic ties with Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Peru, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay; following these countries declarations that Sunday’s election in Venezuela was fraudulent and calling for Nicolás Maduro to step-down as President.
Armed gangsters who used to love Maduro are now coming out against him. The leader of the criminal gang “Tren del Llano” just published a video issuing a warning to Maduro’s security forces to stand down against the people. Reports of police and military units standing down and joining the protestors.
OBSERVATION - At least on this short term, protests and efforts to demand Maduro step down appear to be gaining traction and are components of an incipient civil war. The big question is do they have the fortitude to go the whole distance - even at the cost of significant lives?
Maduro’s reign is currently in a precarious position unless he can quickly clamp down on these protestors.
But, but, but I thought people loved working for Harris... /s Also appreciated the Amazon story - lots of good stuff today.
Holy cow folks, buckle up this week is only half over.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Kamala promises to take executive action to confiscate firearms the first 100 days of her term is congress fails to act.
OBSERVATION - That would be an open declaration of war against the citizens of the US. Undoubtedly there will be many on the left cheering her on, but i expect that few, if any law enforcement or even military will follow that order.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
More than 1,000 known Tren De Aragua (TdA) members are in the U.S. and have been given the “green light” to fire on and attack law enforcement according to an internal bulletin that went out across Border Patrol—The agency has encountered nearly 70 TdA members since October of 2023—TdA is the largest criminal organization in Venezuela and its membership has spread throughout the Western Hemisphere and into the U.S.
The officer safety bulletin cites that Denver and New York received credible information on the threats. This morning sources within New York State police confirmed they have been alerted of the potential for “green light” attacks on law enforcement. Officers in New York are being told to remain vigilant and to reach out to their Strategic Criminal Intelligence Unit Detective or GANG Detective if contact is made with an individual associated to TdA.
One alert says that “TdA is known to exploit immigrant populations and carry out acts of violent crime.”
OBSERVATION - Results of an uncontrolled border. This will stress law enforcement even further to address this direct threat on top of the massive amount of other crime.
Once these criminals neutralize law enforcement, they will shift more strongly towards subjugating citizens via fear and terror.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) continues operations in the underway phase of the Rim of the Pacific 2024 exercise near Hawaii.
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is at home port at San Diego, Calif.
USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is operating in the Persian Gulf.
The aircraft carrier, USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) departed Norfolk, Va., on Friday, according to ship spotters.
USS Wasp (LHD-1) is in the Eastern Mediterranean following a port visit in Souda Bay, Greece.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Acting director of the SS was hammered yesterday in senate hearings. The biggest item is that essentially they will not tell congress who screwed up or fire anyone responsible for the screw ups.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris brought twerking to her first presidential campaign rally in Atlanta. The audience started heading for the EXITS when Kamala Harris took the stage at this concert turned campaign rally.
Turns out, they were only there to watch Megan Thee Stallion twerk for votes.
Wasn’t it Jill biden that said this election was about character?
Illegal Immigration –
See Tren De Aragua (TdA) under Terrorism above.
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled in Texas’s favor, finding that the federal district court abused its discretion when it ordered Texas to remove the buoys floating in the Rio Grande that prevent aliens from attempting a dangerous river crossing to enter America illegally.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Tense night in Ukrainian airspace, as Russia launched dozens of Shahed drones.
Ukrainian air defense forces report shooting down 89 as well as one single launched Kh-59 cruise missile.
Russia beginning to make some critical breakthroughs that could threaten the remainder of the Donbas province.
Partisan Resistance ——
Russia: NPO Automatics factory on fire in Yekaterinburg. The plant produced circuit boards, microchips, and other electronic components for the Russian military, including control modules for the Soyuz-2 rocket.
Ukrainian partisans sabotaged a high voltage electrical substation in occupied Crimea. Over 360 substations near Kerch lost electricity. Multiple simultaneous fires.
Outlook —
Big drone attack and a lot of them shot down, with little reported damage. One of the largest attacks in weeks. Initially, there were warnings of a broader range of missiles to be expected as strategic bombers and missile capable subs were also reported to be in firing positions.
Belarus -
At least 5 Shahed drones flew into Belarus last night: one reached Stolin. They were reportedly shot down by Belarus air force elements.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- In a 1-2 punch, Israel takes out senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran.
- Reports of Israeli reservists being called to duty.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Blinken: The Biden administration did not receive prior warning about the attack on Haniyeh and had no role in it
Israel Defense Minister Gallant says “we doesn’t want a war, but are ready for all options”. Israel cabinet will meet this noon after the dramatic killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in the last day
Israel announces no fly-zone over the northern part of Israel, from Hadera to the north. Israel Ben Gurion will continue working normally
RUMINT but possible. Thousands of IDF reservists have received their reserve duty orders tonight.
RUMINT but likely. The Wasp Amphibious Ready Group is reportedly heading closer to Israel/Lebanon area .
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Iranian media reporting that Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated in Iran. He was head of Hamas political bureau and one of the top 5 leaders of Hamas. Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iran’s new president inauguration. He had a net worth of some 4 Billion dollars. Initially reported to have been killed at his “house”, it now appears he was staying at a guest house of an IRGC commander.
Considerable questions on the exact nature of what hit the house, killing him. Initial remotes indicated a ground based attack. This gradually changed to an air attack by a guided munition of some sort.
Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames Israel for killing Ismail Haniyeh; promises harsh punishment for the killing; it is Iran’s duty because he was killed in Iran
Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames Israel for killing Ismail Haniyeh; promises harsh punishment for the killing; it is Iran’s duty because he was killed in Iran
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah Chief of Staff, Fuad Shukr, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut Lebanon overnight. Shuker was also wanted in the US for his involvement in the murder of 241 American marines in an attack in 1983.
Ali Muhammed Yahya was also reported killed by Israel, he was reportedly responsible for the attack on the children at the soccer game.
Iranian media: The Iranian Vice President says that his country has no intention of escalating the conflict
GPS interference reported in Israel. While this event isn’t new, there was a significant spike reported prior to the Iranian attack in April. We may be seeing something similar here in anticipation of a Hezbollah response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Unconfirmed reports in Syria of a blast in the Damascus suburb of Sayyidah Zaynab.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
At least 8 casualties are being reported as a result of the e at the Headquarters of Kata’ib Hezbollah to the south of Baghdad, with Iraqi sources claiming the explosion was caused by a U.S. airstrike.
U.S. Security Source:
“We are awaiting confirmation of the elimination of Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Iraq.”
US airstrike was in response to an earlier attack on US forces in eastern Syria.
A ballistic missile launched from Iraq was intercepted earlier approaching Israeli airspace near the city of Eilat.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister discussed with the British Foreign and Defense Ministers the repercussions of Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran
Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Egypt condemns the dangerous Israeli policy of escalation and warns of the consequences of the policy of assassinations and violating the sovereignty of states
Turkey says assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh aims to spread the war in Gaza to the region. “It has been revealed once again that the Netanyahu Government has no intention of achieving peace,” the Turkish MFA said. “If the international community does not take action to stop Israel, our region will face much greater conflicts.“
Russia. “The attack in Beirut - a flagrant violation of international law”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Dynamic targeted strikes overnight based on first order targetable intelligence. The taking out of Shukr in Beirut was a master stroke in itself. Man the Mossad rocks. A very loud and strong signal to Hezbollah in response to the Druze kids killed on the soccer field.
The more substantial one was the hit on Haniyeh in Tehran! Nothing definite about the weapon used. Iranian sources are pushing that it was an air borne guided munition of some sort, though peripheral evidence is at this stage weak. Perhaps later today Iran will produce identifiable fragments.
If it was a guided bomb or cruise-type missile, the Iran was caught with its pants down around its ankles. The penetrating aircraft / cruise missile went through any early warning radar systems without detection - and into range of the nation’s capitol. This kind of profile is potentially similar to that used in April to hit a S400 battery protecting one of Irans key nuclear facilities.
An F-35 has the potential stealth capability to avoid radars, but the flight round trip would require refueling - an act that could expose it to detection. However, the April attack shows that some of that can be avoided. This leaves the second part - use of a cruise missile system - potentially with stealth - to hit the pinpoint target.
This strike has got to be giving Iranian military planners massive headaches - two mega failures and great embarrassment to the nation.
Will we see a new missile and drone attack from Iran like we saw back in April? The answer is a probable YES, as islamic ‘honor’ demands a show of strength. However, in this case, Israel has kicked two hornets nests, by hitting Hezbollah at the same time. There is a three day morning period in Iran, so a guesstimate of when an attack window could open from iran is after the period of grieving. Three days would give them the opportunity to work our the logistics and coordination necessary to launch a large counter strike.
Hezbollah may well have a tighter response frame given that much of their offensive capability is ready and waiting in the ground.
Israel for its part is making preparations for a large response with additional ADA batteries moving north, air space controls and the likely call up of reserve forces. in its retaliatory strike against Hezbollah, Israel was both restrained (one target) but bold in the target choice. This places Hezbollah at a disadvantage in the PR realm.
One aspect hurting Hezbollah is the establishment of replacement of all the senior commanders that have been taken out by Israel in the last couple months. While Hezbollah is a semi-military outfit, rising to senior command levels is often a very vicious matter between competing individuals, with the baddest dog taking the position. These internal fights are not in the open, but are likely going on. While they do, a competent chain of command to organize and execute offensive operations against a disciplined Israeli army is in a degree of shambles, as those lines of command have not been fully re-established.
Iran has a similar problem. The unreliability of its ballistic missiles and the ease with which the drones were dispatched has to have forced them to reevaluate their counterstrike options even before this latest event. Add to it the ease with which Israel was able to penetrate Iranian air defenses (if it was an aerial weapon of some sort) twice in a row has to give them pause on how big of a response to muster without suffering the wrath of another unchallenged Israeli strike.
Potential worst case scenario is a joint massive rocket/missile/drone strike by Hezbollah and Iran to overwhelm Israeli air defenses as well as limit other nations going after the cruise missiles and drones. This could result in several thousands of rockets per day coming from Hezbollah over several days. Iran would likely only muster a launch of similar size to that of April and most likely one day’s worth.
Will Hezbollah attempt to follow this up with a ground invasion? It is possible, but as noted above, command and control due to loss of key commanders may make the effort difficult.
Will this be enough to trigger Israel to launch its ground operations into Lebanon? The indicators I’m seeing from public statements is that Israel would prefer not to initiate at this time but has the minimal forces necessary and in position to do so. This would almost be the preemptive Hezbollah strike option I’ve noted here before. However, indicators suggest Israel is nominally ready to execute.
Finally, it is hard to say just when Hezbollah and Iran will act. I strongly believe they will act together to maximize stress of Israeli defenses. Hezbollah has the shorter readiness window, Iran will take a few days. The extent of the response will indicate just how big the conflict will flare up.
Venezuela -
The country continues to be in turmoil as hundreds of thousands of citizens continue to protest calling for Maduro to step down. Hundreds have been reportedly arrested.
Unconfirmed reports that Maduro has fled from the Miraflores Palace. Recent announcements indicate that he is still trying to hold onto power.
There are growing numbers of the Venezuelan military switching sides to join the opposition. There has been growth in armed opposition elements.
A new group of armed civilians called Conexión en Oriente de Venezuela has joined the Tren del Llano and issued a warning to the Nicolás Maduro regime: “Whoever generates violence against the people, we are going to counterattack. The people must respect each other.”
Venezuelan opposition elements have taken over control of the Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía.
The streets of Caracas are packed to the brim with protesters out to support opposition leader María Corina Machado during her first major speech since the election. Maduro’s thugs attempted to launch an assault on the crowd of 100 000+ who had gathered to listen to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s first speech after the election.
The assault failed to disperse the crowds.
OBSERVATION - Maduro’s forces have not put down the opposition protests and those protests continue to grow and gather increasingly lethal support. Having gone through years of oppression, the will of the masses to stand and fight back has grown substantially. However, I expect that these protests have to go to the next level and push back even harder against Maduro - and that means increasing the level of combat directly towards where ever he is ruling from. If they just continue to march in the streets, Maduro will just work to ride the wave of emotion / anger out. Opposition has to strike while the iron is hot and go for the jugular - which means the likelihood of a level of Civil war increases. The opposition has the momentum and initiative at the moment.