Holy cow folks, buckle up this week is only half over.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Kamala promises to take executive action to confiscate firearms the first 100 days of her term is congress fails to act.
OBSERVATION - That would be an open declaration of war against the citizens of the US. Undoubtedly there will be many on the left cheering her on, but i expect that few, if any law enforcement or even military will follow that order.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
More than 1,000 known Tren De Aragua (TdA) members are in the U.S. and have been given the “green light” to fire on and attack law enforcement according to an internal bulletin that went out across Border Patrol—The agency has encountered nearly 70 TdA members since October of 2023—TdA is the largest criminal organization in Venezuela and its membership has spread throughout the Western Hemisphere and into the U.S.
The officer safety bulletin cites that Denver and New York received credible information on the threats. This morning sources within New York State police confirmed they have been alerted of the potential for “green light” attacks on law enforcement. Officers in New York are being told to remain vigilant and to reach out to their Strategic Criminal Intelligence Unit Detective or GANG Detective if contact is made with an individual associated to TdA.
One alert says that “TdA is known to exploit immigrant populations and carry out acts of violent crime.”
OBSERVATION - Results of an uncontrolled border. This will stress law enforcement even further to address this direct threat on top of the massive amount of other crime.
Once these criminals neutralize law enforcement, they will shift more strongly towards subjugating citizens via fear and terror.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) continues operations in the underway phase of the Rim of the Pacific 2024 exercise near Hawaii.
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is at home port at San Diego, Calif.
USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is operating in the Persian Gulf.
The aircraft carrier, USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) departed Norfolk, Va., on Friday, according to ship spotters.
USS Wasp (LHD-1) is in the Eastern Mediterranean following a port visit in Souda Bay, Greece.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Acting director of the SS was hammered yesterday in senate hearings. The biggest item is that essentially they will not tell congress who screwed up or fire anyone responsible for the screw ups.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris brought twerking to her first presidential campaign rally in Atlanta. The audience started heading for the EXITS when Kamala Harris took the stage at this concert turned campaign rally.
Turns out, they were only there to watch Megan Thee Stallion twerk for votes.
Wasn’t it Jill biden that said this election was about character?
Illegal Immigration –
See Tren De Aragua (TdA) under Terrorism above.
The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled in Texas’s favor, finding that the federal district court abused its discretion when it ordered Texas to remove the buoys floating in the Rio Grande that prevent aliens from attempting a dangerous river crossing to enter America illegally.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Tense night in Ukrainian airspace, as Russia launched dozens of Shahed drones.
Ukrainian air defense forces report shooting down 89 as well as one single launched Kh-59 cruise missile.
Russia beginning to make some critical breakthroughs that could threaten the remainder of the Donbas province.
Partisan Resistance ——
Russia: NPO Automatics factory on fire in Yekaterinburg. The plant produced circuit boards, microchips, and other electronic components for the Russian military, including control modules for the Soyuz-2 rocket.
Ukrainian partisans sabotaged a high voltage electrical substation in occupied Crimea. Over 360 substations near Kerch lost electricity. Multiple simultaneous fires.
Outlook —
Big drone attack and a lot of them shot down, with little reported damage. One of the largest attacks in weeks. Initially, there were warnings of a broader range of missiles to be expected as strategic bombers and missile capable subs were also reported to be in firing positions.
Belarus -
At least 5 Shahed drones flew into Belarus last night: one reached Stolin. They were reportedly shot down by Belarus air force elements.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- In a 1-2 punch, Israel takes out senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran.
- Reports of Israeli reservists being called to duty.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Blinken: The Biden administration did not receive prior warning about the attack on Haniyeh and had no role in it
Israel Defense Minister Gallant says “we doesn’t want a war, but are ready for all options”. Israel cabinet will meet this noon after the dramatic killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in the last day
Israel announces no fly-zone over the northern part of Israel, from Hadera to the north. Israel Ben Gurion will continue working normally
RUMINT but possible. Thousands of IDF reservists have received their reserve duty orders tonight.
RUMINT but likely. The Wasp Amphibious Ready Group is reportedly heading closer to Israel/Lebanon area .
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Iranian media reporting that Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated in Iran. He was head of Hamas political bureau and one of the top 5 leaders of Hamas. Haniyeh was in Tehran for Iran’s new president inauguration. He had a net worth of some 4 Billion dollars. Initially reported to have been killed at his “house”, it now appears he was staying at a guest house of an IRGC commander.
Considerable questions on the exact nature of what hit the house, killing him. Initial remotes indicated a ground based attack. This gradually changed to an air attack by a guided munition of some sort.
Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames Israel for killing Ismail Haniyeh; promises harsh punishment for the killing; it is Iran’s duty because he was killed in Iran
Iran supreme leader Ali Khamenei blames Israel for killing Ismail Haniyeh; promises harsh punishment for the killing; it is Iran’s duty because he was killed in Iran
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah Chief of Staff, Fuad Shukr, was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Beirut Lebanon overnight. Shuker was also wanted in the US for his involvement in the murder of 241 American marines in an attack in 1983.
Ali Muhammed Yahya was also reported killed by Israel, he was reportedly responsible for the attack on the children at the soccer game.
Iranian media: The Iranian Vice President says that his country has no intention of escalating the conflict
GPS interference reported in Israel. While this event isn’t new, there was a significant spike reported prior to the Iranian attack in April. We may be seeing something similar here in anticipation of a Hezbollah response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Unconfirmed reports in Syria of a blast in the Damascus suburb of Sayyidah Zaynab.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
At least 8 casualties are being reported as a result of the e at the Headquarters of Kata’ib Hezbollah to the south of Baghdad, with Iraqi sources claiming the explosion was caused by a U.S. airstrike.
U.S. Security Source:
“We are awaiting confirmation of the elimination of Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Iraq.”
US airstrike was in response to an earlier attack on US forces in eastern Syria.
A ballistic missile launched from Iraq was intercepted earlier approaching Israeli airspace near the city of Eilat.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister discussed with the British Foreign and Defense Ministers the repercussions of Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran
Egyptian Foreign Ministry: Egypt condemns the dangerous Israeli policy of escalation and warns of the consequences of the policy of assassinations and violating the sovereignty of states
Turkey says assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh aims to spread the war in Gaza to the region. “It has been revealed once again that the Netanyahu Government has no intention of achieving peace,” the Turkish MFA said. “If the international community does not take action to stop Israel, our region will face much greater conflicts.“
Russia. “The attack in Beirut - a flagrant violation of international law”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Dynamic targeted strikes overnight based on first order targetable intelligence. The taking out of Shukr in Beirut was a master stroke in itself. Man the Mossad rocks. A very loud and strong signal to Hezbollah in response to the Druze kids killed on the soccer field.
The more substantial one was the hit on Haniyeh in Tehran! Nothing definite about the weapon used. Iranian sources are pushing that it was an air borne guided munition of some sort, though peripheral evidence is at this stage weak. Perhaps later today Iran will produce identifiable fragments.
If it was a guided bomb or cruise-type missile, the Iran was caught with its pants down around its ankles. The penetrating aircraft / cruise missile went through any early warning radar systems without detection - and into range of the nation’s capitol. This kind of profile is potentially similar to that used in April to hit a S400 battery protecting one of Irans key nuclear facilities.
An F-35 has the potential stealth capability to avoid radars, but the flight round trip would require refueling - an act that could expose it to detection. However, the April attack shows that some of that can be avoided. This leaves the second part - use of a cruise missile system - potentially with stealth - to hit the pinpoint target.
This strike has got to be giving Iranian military planners massive headaches - two mega failures and great embarrassment to the nation.
Will we see a new missile and drone attack from Iran like we saw back in April? The answer is a probable YES, as islamic ‘honor’ demands a show of strength. However, in this case, Israel has kicked two hornets nests, by hitting Hezbollah at the same time. There is a three day morning period in Iran, so a guesstimate of when an attack window could open from iran is after the period of grieving. Three days would give them the opportunity to work our the logistics and coordination necessary to launch a large counter strike.
Hezbollah may well have a tighter response frame given that much of their offensive capability is ready and waiting in the ground.
Israel for its part is making preparations for a large response with additional ADA batteries moving north, air space controls and the likely call up of reserve forces. in its retaliatory strike against Hezbollah, Israel was both restrained (one target) but bold in the target choice. This places Hezbollah at a disadvantage in the PR realm.
One aspect hurting Hezbollah is the establishment of replacement of all the senior commanders that have been taken out by Israel in the last couple months. While Hezbollah is a semi-military outfit, rising to senior command levels is often a very vicious matter between competing individuals, with the baddest dog taking the position. These internal fights are not in the open, but are likely going on. While they do, a competent chain of command to organize and execute offensive operations against a disciplined Israeli army is in a degree of shambles, as those lines of command have not been fully re-established.
Iran has a similar problem. The unreliability of its ballistic missiles and the ease with which the drones were dispatched has to have forced them to reevaluate their counterstrike options even before this latest event. Add to it the ease with which Israel was able to penetrate Iranian air defenses (if it was an aerial weapon of some sort) twice in a row has to give them pause on how big of a response to muster without suffering the wrath of another unchallenged Israeli strike.
Potential worst case scenario is a joint massive rocket/missile/drone strike by Hezbollah and Iran to overwhelm Israeli air defenses as well as limit other nations going after the cruise missiles and drones. This could result in several thousands of rockets per day coming from Hezbollah over several days. Iran would likely only muster a launch of similar size to that of April and most likely one day’s worth.
Will Hezbollah attempt to follow this up with a ground invasion? It is possible, but as noted above, command and control due to loss of key commanders may make the effort difficult.
Will this be enough to trigger Israel to launch its ground operations into Lebanon? The indicators I’m seeing from public statements is that Israel would prefer not to initiate at this time but has the minimal forces necessary and in position to do so. This would almost be the preemptive Hezbollah strike option I’ve noted here before. However, indicators suggest Israel is nominally ready to execute.
Finally, it is hard to say just when Hezbollah and Iran will act. I strongly believe they will act together to maximize stress of Israeli defenses. Hezbollah has the shorter readiness window, Iran will take a few days. The extent of the response will indicate just how big the conflict will flare up.
Venezuela -
The country continues to be in turmoil as hundreds of thousands of citizens continue to protest calling for Maduro to step down. Hundreds have been reportedly arrested.
Unconfirmed reports that Maduro has fled from the Miraflores Palace. Recent announcements indicate that he is still trying to hold onto power.
There are growing numbers of the Venezuelan military switching sides to join the opposition. There has been growth in armed opposition elements.
A new group of armed civilians called Conexión en Oriente de Venezuela has joined the Tren del Llano and issued a warning to the Nicolás Maduro regime: “Whoever generates violence against the people, we are going to counterattack. The people must respect each other.”
Venezuelan opposition elements have taken over control of the Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía.
The streets of Caracas are packed to the brim with protesters out to support opposition leader María Corina Machado during her first major speech since the election. Maduro’s thugs attempted to launch an assault on the crowd of 100 000+ who had gathered to listen to opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s first speech after the election.
The assault failed to disperse the crowds.
OBSERVATION - Maduro’s forces have not put down the opposition protests and those protests continue to grow and gather increasingly lethal support. Having gone through years of oppression, the will of the masses to stand and fight back has grown substantially. However, I expect that these protests have to go to the next level and push back even harder against Maduro - and that means increasing the level of combat directly towards where ever he is ruling from. If they just continue to march in the streets, Maduro will just work to ride the wave of emotion / anger out. Opposition has to strike while the iron is hot and go for the jugular - which means the likelihood of a level of Civil war increases. The opposition has the momentum and initiative at the moment.
I would not be alive 200 days into her term.
Nor would several other people.
It's certainly possible that the Gaslight Media refuses to mention any recent utterances of this statement, but the only other reference I could find to this was dated 4/2019. Obviously, that action never happened.
Turkey says assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh aims to spread the war in Gaza to the region. “It has been revealed once again that the Netanyahu Government has no intention of achieving peace,” the Turkish MFA said. “If the international community does not take action to stop Israel, our region will face much greater conflicts.“
Preach it to your fellow islamists.
Release all hostages and leave Israel alone and there will be peace.
It disgusts me that everyone is all over Israel's case to *de-escalate* but nobody ever bothers to tell the islamists to stop attacking Israel.
Israel responds when attacked. If you're going to keep poking them with a stick, suck it up and quit whining like the crybabies you are.
Is this the rally the press reported had "thousands" of people?
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of Aug 1, 2024
Alert to all - with the impending Iran/Hezbollah retaliatory strikes impending, Iran may use various levels of acts of terror to punish the US. There is no doubt they have the personnel in country and increasing motivation to strike at the US.
***
Three men who are accused of planning out the 9/11 attacks that killed 2,976 innocent people have reached a plea agreement with U.S. prosecutors.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the Office of Military Commissions (OMC) announced that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other co-conspirators, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak Bin Attash and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al Hawsawi, pleaded guilty to planning the largest terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
According to reports, the men pleaded guilty in exchange for life sentences, rather than their originally intended death sentences.
OBSERVATION - These killers should already be worm food by now. Once again, the regime shows its pro-islamic face for this plea deal.
***
The two illegal Jordanian migrants who are charged with trying to breach Marine Corps Base Quantico in May posted thousands of dollars in bail and were allowed to leave federal custody, The Post can exclusively reveal.
Hasan Yousef Hamdan, 32, and Mohammad Khair Dabous, 28, were released from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention despite their immigration status — Hamdan had crossed into the country illegally in April and Dabous had overstayed his student visa and is subject to removal proceedings, law enforcement sources told The Post.
They were arrested on May 3 for trespassing onto the military installation and handed over to ICE officers because of their immigration statuses.
OBSERVATION - This was an example of a classic probing operation to test security of sensitive US bases. And the regime is essentially letting them walk. You can bet that they will melt into the illegal body pool and not see any more courtrooms.
Economy- MODERATE Threat - as of June 26, 2024
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday, but left open the door for the first cuts in the rates in four years.
***
Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise, hitting levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis of 2008–09.
According to a recent report from credit-rating agency Standard & Poor’s, 75 new corporate bankruptcies were filed in the month of June, indicating an acceleration of filings from already high rates in 2023.
In addition, the agency reported, the 346 bankruptcy filings in the first half of this year exceeded the number for any six-month period over the past 13 years. The agency attributed the increase to higher interest rates, lingering supply-chain issues, and reduced consumer spending.
Companies are finding it harder to stay open in today’s high-rate climate, says Jonathan Carson, co-CEO at Stretto, a bankruptcy technology and case-management services firm.
“Rising interest rates have been the cause of a lot of businesses finding it more difficult to stay open when debt service goes higher and margins are thin,” Carson told The Epoch Times.
OBSERVATION - Counter point to the regime’s claims of a ‘happy days are here again’ economy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Videos were released yesterday from the area near where the rally attendee was murdered clearly showing Crooks openly running on the roof the the building and setting up for his shots. Again, it becomes clearer and clearer that the SS orchestrated a botched up security perimeter that the shooter IMHO was invited by someone to exploit.
***
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump fired back at Vice President Kamala Harris’ “say it to my face” quip. “This is one of the worst records anywhere,” Trump told rallygoers in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in a campaign rally speech. “Well, Kamala, let’s go. Challenge accepted. Are you ready? Let’s compare our records, point by point.”
OBSERVATION - Trump should bring a bottle of salad dressing to the debate - and whip it out whenever harris devolves into one of her word salad answers.
***
All over the inter webs, but I’ll note here for the record that Google is deliberately altering its search engine parameters to influence the election.
***
Former President Donald Trump participated in the National Association of Black Journalists convention on Wednesday afternoon.
The interview with a panel of reporters started on a bad note, with one moderator immediately accusing Trump of previous racist attacks.
OBSERVATION - The interview was a trap on multiple levels. Delayed 30 minutes, the ‘journalist’ jumps right into personal attacks and allegation. Trump replied in typical manner, showing that he wasn’t going to be a door mat. The interview ended short of the original hour - because Trump had other engagements to get to and the NABJ wasted 30 minutes getting him on stage. All this served to provide the left with tons of sound bites overnight of how deranged Trump was - included in this was Trump challenging harris’ claims to blackness. Very slick attempt by the left to corner Trump and came close to succeeding.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris has been trying to gain traction on the statements by republicans and especially Trump, that she is a recent ‘convert’ to being black. Two key points. For a sizable portion of her political career she touted her Indian roots, even to the point of heavy leftist media pieces examining her Indian roots (note, not talking about Native Americans here - leaving that to Fauxahauntus).
Second, so she wants to identify as black now. Well then she has to embrace the fact that she is descended from slave owners and that Jamaica does not equal African origins.
***
A federal appeals court has issued an order that blocks all remaining parts of the federal government’s Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) student debt relief plan that weren’t blocked by an earlier lower-court ruling.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024
As with terror threats from Iran increasing with the impending retaliatory strikes against Israel, Iranian cyber warfare in various forms could target the US and other Israeli allies.
Japan –
As part of a major move to counter what the allies view as China becoming more assertive, the defense chiefs and top diplomats of the two nations announced on July 28 that the United States would restructure its command in Japan, giving it a “direct leadership role” over American forces in operational planning during both peacetime and a potential crisis.
In a statement published on July 28, the US State Department stated: “Through a phased approach, the U.S. plans to convert U.S. Forces Japan into a joint force headquarters which will report to the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the U.S. secretary of defense said today following the conclusion of a two-plus-two ministerial meeting in Tokyo.”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/nuclear-warning-for-japan-chinas-state/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Naturally, this didn’t go over well with China, who threatened to respond in the event of any conflict with nuclear weapons.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the start of the third phase of exercises to practice the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as per Putin’s decision. The military will be working with “Iskander-M” systems during these exercises.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky reports he was working from the frontline for 3 days: at Pokrovsk direction Russian troops attempting to break Ukrainian defenses near Zhelanne, Novohrodivka, Pokrovsk. This is the southern margin of the Ocheretyne salient.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 Shahed drones overnight while it appears a drone/missile hit the Dnipro city area.
The first delivery of the F-16 fighter jets from NATO allies has arrived in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. They have reportedly already flown their first combat missions.
Outlook —
The war in Ukraine is looking more like the red headed stepchild with the potential for a major war in the middle-east and the chaos here in the US as election season kicks into high gear.
The Pokrovsk area is developing into a breakout situation that at worse case could allow Russian to quickly gobble up a large portion of the Donbas.
The F16s are in country - well at least 6 are - and their impacts on the fight may soon be felt in a more significant manner.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More travel alerts issued by countries for their citizens in Lebanon
- Israel takes out more Hezbollah/Hamas/ IRGC commanders
- Ayatollah Khamenei ordered a strike against Israel in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a Hamas agent in Tehran.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Top Iranian officials will meet the representatives of Iran’s regional allies from Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen on Thursday to discuss potential retaliation against Israel after the killing of the Hamas leader in Tehran, five sources told Reuters
Ynet reporting the Strauss ice cream factory in Acre was instructed by the Home Front Command to halt operations. The plant uses ammonia gas. Other factories using hazardous materials were instructed to empty reservoirs too
Iran has raised the red flag of Revenge on the dome of the Jamkaran mosque.
The funeral for the Chief Political Leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh will take place tomorrow at 8am in downtown Tehran, with him then being transported to Doha in Qatar for burial on Friday.
RUMINT. Israel has sent diplomatic back-channel messages to both Iran and Lebanon, stating that they are willing to go to full-scale war if Iran, Hezbollah, and other Iranian-backed groups conduct a retaliatory response which causes significant damage and casualties in Israel.
Netanyahu: ”Today we have targeted all of our enemies…Challenging days are ahead of us, you will need to gather patience and courage… We will not abandon the citizens of the north and will not allow to prolongue their suffering.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Air strikes decreased across Gaza, with artillery being active in the area around Gaza City in the north.
The IDF and the Shin Bet officially confirm this morning the elimination of Muhammad Deif, another Hamas senior leader
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Speaker of Parliament says that Lebanon does not want war, but is ready to defend itself
The U.S. Department of State has just raised their Travel Alert Status for Lebanon from Level 3: Reconsider Travel, to its Highest, Level 4: Do not Travel. With Americans currently in Lebanon told they should “Be Prepared to Shelter-in-Place” due to Rising Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Hezbollah and Iranian militias in the Sayyida Zeinab area in the southern Damascus countryside are completely closing the entrances and exits of the city at the present time
Acting Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran will not give up its right to respond
Clarification has been provided on the Tehran strike by the Mossad. The Mossad’s operatives in Iran fired a pair of Spike NLOS anti-tank missiles at Ismail Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran. The first missile had him explode (hit him in stomach) & the second made sure the job was finished. Spike NLOS has maximum range of 32km and have a dual FPV and IR tracking modes.
Reports indicate that Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces, has been assassination in an attack near the Syrian Capital of Damascus. Hajizadeh is believed to have been the Senior Commander who planned and ordered the Iranian ballistic and cruise missile attack in April against Israel.
Iranian media reporting IRGC “military advisor” Milad Bedi was killed in the strike in Beirut yesterday
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leadership announce that they will engage Israel in coordination with Iran and Hezbollah.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German airline Lufthansa temporarily suspends all flights to Israel from this evening until August 8
——— FORECAST ————————-
Many observers not it’s likely that any retaliation by Iran against Israel for his assassination, won’t take place until after Hajizadeh is buried which is scheduled for Friday. This would make Saturday a prime window as it is also the Sabbath for Israel.
OSINT and other analysts are noting intelligence indicators from Iran are they will launch hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. Larger strike than in April.
Iran, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias and Yemen will likely want to saturate the air defense, enabling some hits to Israel. This increase in numbers is to be expected from the escalation factors of the region. Iran has to organize a much larger strike than April - in order to have any success and not be embarrassed like they were then. Remember, the appearance of strength is crucial to arabs in this region.
Some are speculating that if Israel detects any movement of Iranian missiles, it is highly likely they will take preemptive action. This would be a common sense measure and tactic to throw off Iran’s assault. I’m sure Israel is looking north into Lebanon for similar preparations at rocket and missile launching sites.
Uninterrupted, I would expect the sequence to run in a manner similar to April, with massive drone and cruise missile launches being detected first because they are the slowest and will take time to reach Israel. Then ballistic missile launches timed to hit Israel at the same time as the drones/cruise missiles - designed to overwhelm air defenses.
Hezbollah has greater flexibility due to its closeness to Israel. They may likely launch early, targeting Israeli air defenses, air bases and major facilities / cities to degrade defenses against the Iranian barrage. Hezbollah has the capabilities to launch thousands of rockets per day.
Houthi will throw their rockets/drones in the mix as they see fit. Some of the Iraqi based Iranian militias may also throw some drones and rockets into the mix.
At this stage, it is uncertain if an international coalition of airfares will rise to the skies as they did in April to target the large swarm of drones and cruise missiles. This coalition swatted most of them out of the sky before they reached Israel. Absent such another response, Israel will be very hard pressed to deal with the far greater numbers than in April.
Also uncertain is if Iran has solved the massive failure rate of its ballistic missiles. In April, the vast majority of the missiles failed to even exit the country or even make it very far out side of Iran. In the months since April, Israel most likely has been honing its Arrow and David’s sling systems to fill gaps discovered in the April attack, but will still be hard pressed if Iran’s missiles perform better - even marginally - than last time.
Now that we’ve entered August, the window for the Hezbollah/Lebanon war is opening and Israel may use any action by Hezbollah as the justification to kick it off. Recent weeks have seen Israel ramp up its preps and in the past few days bringing military and other assets to be mobilized. The success of Israeli intelligence in locating and killing key leadership has to indicate that similar details have been obtained on Hezbollah command, control, rocket launchers and storage facilities throughout the nation.
Against Iran, Israel may take the attack to remove the gloves and this round go after key Iranian nuclear facilities and other strategic targets. This would be accomplished by a different weapons set than Israel would be using against Hezbollah, and unlikely to deter either effort. Iran may also be taking this moment to intimate final processing of Uranium and development of a fission device to join the nuclear club. That could give Israel all the more incentive for hitting Iran harder than it did in April.
The final question is will this weekend end in a similar strike / retaliatory strike cycle - far more vicious and aggressive than April but draw short of exploding into a regional war -OR- breakout into the massive Israel/Hezbollah slugfest with portions of Iran smoldering and pondering their next direct attack options. Right now, given the chaos in the US govt - particularly the biden regime - focus on the elections to the exclusions of foreign matters, the needle is pushing towards a growing regional war.
See Iranian threats to US below under Iran
Iran –
Iran has closed its airspace due to “military activity”.
Iran has warned the US through its allies that if they make a mistake, all their assets in the region will will be taken over and struck hard - Al Jarida
OBSERVATION - At this stage I do not think Iran has the capability other than for its Iraqi and Syrian sponsors militias to harass US outposts. The facilities Iran is claiming to threaten and seize would face opposition not only from the US, but host countries. It would jump world into a serious regional war in a near instant. Iran has its hands full addressing Israel, and is speaking tough to try to warn off any US support for Israel as well as any interference with the impending retaliatory attack(s).
Iraq -
Large explosion reported overnight in Baghdad Iraq. Possible another US airstrike on Iranian militia HQs responsible for recent rocket/drone attacks on US forces in eastern Syria/Western Iraq.
Venezuela -
Maduro has launched a wave of arrests of election observers who saw too much and spoke out in public.
OBSERVATION - Protests continue, but lacking more physical force and presence against Maduro, I’m getting the feeling that they are reaching their high water mark and will not achieve the goal of ousting Madura.