Globalism / Great Reset –
A new Vermont law charges oil companies for climate change damage – based on the state distinguishing between which specific weather events it thinks were caused by greenhouse gas and which weren’t.
The first such state measure in the U.S, S. 259 became law Thursday night after Republican Governor Phil Scott refused to veto it. The act will go into effect July 1, 2024.
Under the law, Vermont will decree specifically which hurricanes, for example, were due to climate change. Vermont will then assign the cost of the damage done by each weather event.
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia is not the only state instituting insane climate change laws. The Northeast US is rushing to keep up. See the link for details. Virtually impossible to defend, it will stay active because of leftist courts ignoring the reality that specific storms cannot be directly linked to GW.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
June 8 - Surround the WH.
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Anti-Israel agitators occupied the Israeli consulate in San Francisco on Monday, demanding that “all of Palestine” be liberated and claiming they are coming for the “right-wing white nationalist” Zionist organizations.
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A citywide tactical alert has been declared due to multiple pro-Palestine protesters setting up an encampment near LA City Hall A mobile field force with officers from various divisions is being mobilized and is currently staging at a command post. So far, about 20 tents possibly more have been set up around the area so far with reports of tensions are rising this situation is developing.
OBSERVATION ON THE TWO ABOVE - I noted reports that the pro-hamas ‘movement’ was seeking to expand its encampment campaign to targets outside of university campuses. These are just two examples of this new move.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Now reports of trump raising over 200 million just from the verdict, with hundreds of millions starting to pour into separate PACs from multiple billionaires across the country.
Illegal Immigration –
The White House is telling lawmakers that President Joe Biden is preparing to sign off on an executive order that would shut down asylum requests to the U.S.-Mexico border once the number of daily encounters hits 2,500 between ports of entry, with the border reopening once that number declines to 1,500, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
The impact of the 2,500 figure means that the border could be closed to migrants seeking asylum effectively immediately, because daily figures are higher than that now.
OBSERVATION - This is much like the Senate bill that sets the limit at 4000 per day. Mostly an administration gig as the flow of illegals will continue - illegally. Only deals with asylum requests.
China –
China’s moon probe has reportedly lifted off from the far side of the moon, bring lunar samples with it on a return flight to earth.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles, another one may have hit Dnipro city. Another missile/drone may have hit in the Odesa region.
Kharkiv axis saw clashes overnight near Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. More reports, mostly from Russian milbloggers that Russian forces are beginning to lose ground.
Reports that Russian forces attempted to press the attack on Chasiv Yar by crossing a portion of eastern irrigation canal where it goes underground, only to have those forces surrounded and eliminated.
Russian forces continued to press attacks along the line from Ocheretyne south to Vuhledar.
Biden admin to hold talks with Ukraine about allowing Kyiv to strike in more parts of Russia with US-provided weapons, NSC spox John Kirby told reporters yesterday.
Outlook —
Flush with re-arrmament and freer weapons use, it is becoming evident that Ukraine has stripped the initiative from Russia on a couple of key fronts. As noted previously, the Russian Kharkiv push has been stopped and is beginning to lose ground as Ukraine increasingly interdicts support - isolating the front line. Chasiv Yar has held against Russia assaults and Moscow maintains it as one of its key objectives - throwing resources at it only to have them destroyed in detail.
Ukraine also has Russia forces in Crimea in jeopardy. In addition to putting the Black Sea fleet on the run, Russia has lost considerable S300 and S400 ADA units as well as expensive regional early warning radar systems - exposing forces to even more drone and rocket attacks.
The question is - will Ukraine attempt a large scale offensive like last summer? I don’t think so at this moment. Much of the arms resupply are being burned through stopping the current Russian offensive. If Ukraine is holding back some elements I think they may be planning a more limited and targeted offensive. The most likely is to push Russia back to the border in the Kharkiv region - this has the highest likelihood of success. An even more ambitious one would be a push towards Crimea. That option is dangerous in that Ukraine faces the same massive minefields and defenses that stalled last year’s offensive. An alternative would be to launch a surprise assault utilizing the bridgehead in the Kherson sector over the Dniper River. This is currently the shortest route to Crimea for Ukraine forces. Last review, Russian defenses have been thinned in this sector thinking that the river would provide adequate deterrent from a large operations. This is where F-16 could provide localized air superiority and CAS to protect a crossing.
Russia’s counter deep strike forces have been quiet lately, yielding to Ukraine’s attacks. Two thought. 1) Russia has drained its stockpiles from previous massive attacks and/or 2) Russia is searching for logistical sites containing concentrated resupplied arms and munitions to mass a strike against. The last would suggest that Ukraine has rediscovered OPSEC - an issue that caused it a lot of problems in the early defensive fight against the Russian offensive.
Russia reportedly has lost over 35,000 troops in Apr/May. They are near the bottom of the barrel to continue the offensive for much longer.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- bodies of 4 hostages recovered.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Four more hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 were declared dead by the Israeli military — including three older adults seen in a Hamas video begging to be released.
All four of the men declared dead Monday night — Nadav Popplewell, Amiram Cooper, Yoram Metzger and Haim Peri — were kidnapped and taken into Gaza still alive, according to the Hostages Forum, a grassroots group representing the families of the hostages.
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Today, the Israeli War Council is discussing the escalation on the border with Lebanon.
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A Hamas official told Al-Mayadeen that no delegation from the group went to Cairo, and that it did not accept what was offered by the mediators
Reportedly the G7 nations are backing the biden peace plan.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress on June 13. His 4th appearance before a joint session.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Tempo a little lower lately as units continue to rotate in/out of Gaza. Rafah has now reportedly been cut in half by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Al Jazeera correspondent reports more than 30 missiles were launched towards the Golan Heights
Large fires burning in northern Israel, sparked by rocket fire from Hezbollah. Overnight, Israeli firefighters reportedly have gotten most of them under control.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Saeed Abiyar, a member of the IRGC in Syria, was killed by an Israeli strike last night in Aleppo
——— FORECAST ————————-
A lot of rumbling over accelerated Israeli preparations for shifting the war into Lebanon. While there has been some Hezbollah escalation of late, the rocket attacks and ground activity that I’ve seen reported have not reached a level of tactical concern. The increase seem to be associated with losses of key Hezbollah and IRGC leadership to Israeli targeted strikes. A lot of the news releases over preparations for war in Lebanon may well be propaganda/psyops to keep Hezbollah and Iran uneasy.
Israel so far is operating with its active 12 brigades, most of whom are in Gaza. The reserves necessary for an even larger operation in Lebanon are not currently called up. Even though the IDF reserves are highly trained to activate and fall in on their equipment, an operation the size necessary to go into Lebanon will require these units to be activated and integrated into OPLANS prior to D day. It would be potentially very disastrous for Israel to attack with the relative few active brigades and wait the several days necessary for reserve units to come to speed and join the attack.
A growth n reserve activations is one of the key indicators to look for. However, IDF may in a sneaky way get many units activated under the guise of training ‘exercises’, each growing larger with progressive cycles. I’ve already seen at least 2 reports exercises in a Lebanese scenario.
Still, common sense would look to a significant reduction in the Gaza operations before an Israeli initiated assault on Hezbollah and S Lebanon. This is still months away.
VT got nailed with incredible flooding a couple years ago. It hit an area mr. mm and I often travel through. It’s the first time that I’ve ever had to drive through the aftermath of a weather disaster like that. The size boulders that were moved was incredible. It washed out roads which needed massive repair.
The state is just looking for payout to pay for the expense that came from that. This is just a money grab, plain and simple because they cannot prove that *climate change* did any of it, not how much. They’ll just make up numbers and set their sights on someone they think has deep pockets.
Economy-
OPEC+ reached an internal agreement to prolong its oil production cuts, a move that could raise energy prices in the U.S. ahead of the pivotal 2024 elections, Reuters reported Monday.
The oil cartel, made up mostly of Middle Eastern nations and other oil-producing states — is prolonging existing production cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day through the end of 2025 and extending its ongoing cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through September 2024, according to Reuters. The cartel’s deal to extend the cuts could mean that oil prices will remain high through this fall’s presidential election, according to The Wall Street Journal.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/03/opec-production-cuts-oil-prices/
OBSERVATION - biden is in the process of killing domestic production as well as having essentially drained the Strategic Reserve to next to nothingness. With today’s perilous global situations, any serious hit to oil supply or price could be enough to trigger major economic repercussions across the US (and eventually the globe).
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The number of job openings in the US shrank for the second month in a row, setting a new three-year low amid further signals of cooling in the labor market. As of April, there were an estimated 1.2 available jobs for every job seeker. That’s the lowest ratio since June 2021, BLS data shows.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.
OBSERVATION - Many are pointing to this and other numbers to indicate we are crossing the threshold into a recession.
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Internet has had a story bouncing around that 63 banks on the brink of default according to the FDIC
with over $500 BILLION of paper losses held by banks.
I’ve found some independent collaboration of these numbers buried deep.
https://www.sgtreport.com/2024/06/63-banks-on-the-brink-of-default-according-to-the-fdic/
And from Forbes who actually say that 500 billion is actually good news -
Forbes associates these losses as being the result of the increase in the rate higher interest rates causing the value of bonds and other fixed income assets held by banks, which were issued during a long period where interest rates hovered near zero, to plummet. This is the scenario that hit First Republic, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank last year.
Despite the slight improvement, the report indicated the banking sector isn’t out of the woods just yet. In his press statement, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg noted that the banking industry “continues to face significant downside risks from the effects of inflation, rising market interest rates, slower economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty.”
A house of cards when combined with all the other economic indicators.
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May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel demand fell to its lowest seasonal level in March since 1998, while crude oil output rose to a multi-month high, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday.
Demand for distillate fuels, which includes diesel and heating oil, has been hit sharply this year under pressure from sluggish manufacturing activity, milder-than-expected winter weather and booming renewable fuel supply.
OBSERVATION - Red flags - “sluggish manufacturing activity”. Trucks are not transporting stuff to consumers. Another indicator - when combined with everything else - that suggests recession conditions are close at hand.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Fauci was grilled in congressional hearings yesterday and was exposed as the foul degenerated person he is. But he won’t go to jail over any of this - hence his despicable smirking.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Yesterday was a big primary day for several states. Reading the tea leaves here in the Montana redoubt I’m trying to look outside the box for trends here. One thought is voter turnout and total voting. Primaries are often under voted and when turnout is high - so too energy for candidates is reflected. So I looked at total votes cast on two major races - President and Senate.
Total votes cast for President
- Trump 152,832
- biden 86,892
NOTE - Montana soundly voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Senate
- Sheehe(R) 129,388
- Tester 95,534
Again, this is IMHO a crude look at what may pan out for the General election in November but is a good sign. Shows republicans are motivated to get out and vote and two there may well be little enthusiasm on the democrat side. This could make Montana redder and flip a senate seat.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Hunter’s gun trial, the prosecution introduced the computer - you know the computer that 51 intelligence “authorities” denied existed . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
Biden’s executive order to permit 2,500 illegal migrant entries per day has been met with swift rebuke, and critics say the plan, even if properly enforced, will still allow almost 1.8 million entries per year.
Earlier on Tuesday, Biden issued an executive order to shut down the U.S. southern border once illegal crossings reach 2,500 a day. According to a senior official in a background call previewing Biden’s announcement, the restrictions would be lifted after seven straight days of 1,500 crossings per day.
The New York Post broke down how the numbers permitted through Biden’s executive action, the written exceptions in the order, and the administration’s own parole program will still bring in almost 1.8 million migrants per year via various points of entry.
The new restrictions included plenty of exceptions including allowing migrants to cross the border if they use the CMP One mobile app at a port of entry as well as “unaccompanied children, victims of a severe form of trafficking, those who face an acute medical emergency or an imminent and extreme threat to life and safety and other non-citizens who have a valid visa or some other lawful permission to enter the United States,” the senior administration official said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/illegal-border-security-immigration/2024/06/04/id/1167441/
OBSERVATION - In summary this EO is similar to that with Schmer and the senate democrats have tried to push, essentially making illegal immigration permanent. It does nothing to stop traffic or deal with the 12-15+ illegals already in country.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
Russia’s attempts to conclude a major gas pipeline deal with China have run aground over what Moscow sees as Beijing’s unreasonable demands on price and supply levels, - FT
Beijing’s tough stance on Power of Siberia 2 pipeline underscores how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left Putin increasingly dependent on Xi Jinping for economic support.
OBSERVATION - China is putting the screws to putin, demonstrating the predicament they are in due to the Ukraine war. Sanctions on Russian oil and gas have hit hard, depriving putin of the funds he needs for the war. China is out for bargain basement deals.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 Shahed drones overnight. Kryvyi Rih area appears to be the targeted region. Konotop, Sumy Region targeted in a separate attack by u/i missiles.
Russian forces pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne region. Also along the line southward from Kupyansk to Yampil.
Fierce fighting reported north of Kharkiv at Vovchansk.
Outlook —
Continued assessments that Russia has lost the initiative in Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar and is losing the edge elsewhere, even though launching a large number of attacks.
Watching to see any solid data to show Ukraine retaking terrain in the Kharkiv region.
The sudden flurry of deep strikes by Ukraine into Russia seems to have slowed, but significant damage has been done.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel believes more than a third of the remaining Gaza hostages are dead
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Netanyahu - We are ready for a very strong move on the northern front
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Israel believes more than a third of the remaining Gaza hostages are dead, a government tally showed Tuesday, as the United States sought to advance their recovery under a proposal to wind down the war with Hamas.
Of about 250 people dragged into the Gaza Strip by Hamas-led Palestinian gunmen during the Oct. 7 cross-border rampage that sparked the war, scores were freed in a November truce, while others have been recovered – dead or alive – by Israeli troops.
The government tally said 120 remain in captivity, 43 of whom have been declared dead in absentia by Israeli officials based on various sources of information, including intelligence tip-offs, CCTV or bystander videos and forensic analysis.
Some officials have privately said the number of dead could be higher.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hostages-war/2024/06/04/id/1167383/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting renewed in central gaza as the Israeli military says it had launched a new operation against Hamas in the Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip.It says fighter jets are striking Hamas targets in Bureij, as ground forces are operating “in a precise manner” in the area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Various unconfirmed reports of extensive and intense air strikes on Hezbollah site in S Lebanon. Much of the action north of Kiryat Shmona.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’m reading more and more statements regarding the readiness of Israel to tear into Hezbollah and in a relatively soon timeframe. Without massive reserve call ups I don’t see how they can kick a major operation off while still invested in Gaza. One of the stated goals of Israel is to push Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and across the Litani River. That’s gonna take a lot of ground forces. Already the IAF has had little opposition in striking key Hezbollah targets and leaders and I would think they would continue to do this while avoiding a full up two front war.
Naturally i see much of the rhetoric being propaganda designed to put Hezbollah and IRGC/Iran at ill ease. Loss of leaders at multiple levels in all organizations has got to have put a kink in the planning for an Israeli offensive.
Israel is positioned to blunt any Hezbollah preemptive ground attack with rocket support. As seen in the Oct 7 response of the reserves, IDF could build forces very rapidly and launch its attack within a week.
I am monitoring another key indicator of Israeli action - the intensity and numbers of IAfF air strikes that could be deemed as more directly preparing the battle field for an imminent ground assault. Israel is already doing this at a ‘strategic’ level with its leadership stakes and key facility hits. Switch to intense strikes targeting rocket launchers and storage is the indicator for imminent ground attacks.