Economy-
OPEC+ reached an internal agreement to prolong its oil production cuts, a move that could raise energy prices in the U.S. ahead of the pivotal 2024 elections, Reuters reported Monday.
The oil cartel, made up mostly of Middle Eastern nations and other oil-producing states — is prolonging existing production cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day through the end of 2025 and extending its ongoing cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through September 2024, according to Reuters. The cartel’s deal to extend the cuts could mean that oil prices will remain high through this fall’s presidential election, according to The Wall Street Journal.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/03/opec-production-cuts-oil-prices/
OBSERVATION - biden is in the process of killing domestic production as well as having essentially drained the Strategic Reserve to next to nothingness. With today’s perilous global situations, any serious hit to oil supply or price could be enough to trigger major economic repercussions across the US (and eventually the globe).
***
The number of job openings in the US shrank for the second month in a row, setting a new three-year low amid further signals of cooling in the labor market. As of April, there were an estimated 1.2 available jobs for every job seeker. That’s the lowest ratio since June 2021, BLS data shows.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.8 percent on June 3, down from 2.7 percent on May 31. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts for annualized second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.6 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent.
OBSERVATION - Many are pointing to this and other numbers to indicate we are crossing the threshold into a recession.
***
Internet has had a story bouncing around that 63 banks on the brink of default according to the FDIC
with over $500 BILLION of paper losses held by banks.
I’ve found some independent collaboration of these numbers buried deep.
https://www.sgtreport.com/2024/06/63-banks-on-the-brink-of-default-according-to-the-fdic/
And from Forbes who actually say that 500 billion is actually good news -
Forbes associates these losses as being the result of the increase in the rate higher interest rates causing the value of bonds and other fixed income assets held by banks, which were issued during a long period where interest rates hovered near zero, to plummet. This is the scenario that hit First Republic, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank last year.
Despite the slight improvement, the report indicated the banking sector isn’t out of the woods just yet. In his press statement, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg noted that the banking industry “continues to face significant downside risks from the effects of inflation, rising market interest rates, slower economic growth and geopolitical uncertainty.”
A house of cards when combined with all the other economic indicators.
***
May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel demand fell to its lowest seasonal level in March since 1998, while crude oil output rose to a multi-month high, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Friday.
Demand for distillate fuels, which includes diesel and heating oil, has been hit sharply this year under pressure from sluggish manufacturing activity, milder-than-expected winter weather and booming renewable fuel supply.
OBSERVATION - Red flags - “sluggish manufacturing activity”. Trucks are not transporting stuff to consumers. Another indicator - when combined with everything else - that suggests recession conditions are close at hand.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Fauci was grilled in congressional hearings yesterday and was exposed as the foul degenerated person he is. But he won’t go to jail over any of this - hence his despicable smirking.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Yesterday was a big primary day for several states. Reading the tea leaves here in the Montana redoubt I’m trying to look outside the box for trends here. One thought is voter turnout and total voting. Primaries are often under voted and when turnout is high - so too energy for candidates is reflected. So I looked at total votes cast on two major races - President and Senate.
Total votes cast for President
- Trump 152,832
- biden 86,892
NOTE - Montana soundly voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
Senate
- Sheehe(R) 129,388
- Tester 95,534
Again, this is IMHO a crude look at what may pan out for the General election in November but is a good sign. Shows republicans are motivated to get out and vote and two there may well be little enthusiasm on the democrat side. This could make Montana redder and flip a senate seat.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Hunter’s gun trial, the prosecution introduced the computer - you know the computer that 51 intelligence “authorities” denied existed . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
Biden’s executive order to permit 2,500 illegal migrant entries per day has been met with swift rebuke, and critics say the plan, even if properly enforced, will still allow almost 1.8 million entries per year.
Earlier on Tuesday, Biden issued an executive order to shut down the U.S. southern border once illegal crossings reach 2,500 a day. According to a senior official in a background call previewing Biden’s announcement, the restrictions would be lifted after seven straight days of 1,500 crossings per day.
The New York Post broke down how the numbers permitted through Biden’s executive action, the written exceptions in the order, and the administration’s own parole program will still bring in almost 1.8 million migrants per year via various points of entry.
The new restrictions included plenty of exceptions including allowing migrants to cross the border if they use the CMP One mobile app at a port of entry as well as “unaccompanied children, victims of a severe form of trafficking, those who face an acute medical emergency or an imminent and extreme threat to life and safety and other non-citizens who have a valid visa or some other lawful permission to enter the United States,” the senior administration official said.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/illegal-border-security-immigration/2024/06/04/id/1167441/
OBSERVATION - In summary this EO is similar to that with Schmer and the senate democrats have tried to push, essentially making illegal immigration permanent. It does nothing to stop traffic or deal with the 12-15+ illegals already in country.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
Russia’s attempts to conclude a major gas pipeline deal with China have run aground over what Moscow sees as Beijing’s unreasonable demands on price and supply levels, - FT
Beijing’s tough stance on Power of Siberia 2 pipeline underscores how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left Putin increasingly dependent on Xi Jinping for economic support.
OBSERVATION - China is putting the screws to putin, demonstrating the predicament they are in due to the Ukraine war. Sanctions on Russian oil and gas have hit hard, depriving putin of the funds he needs for the war. China is out for bargain basement deals.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 Shahed drones overnight. Kryvyi Rih area appears to be the targeted region. Konotop, Sumy Region targeted in a separate attack by u/i missiles.
Russian forces pressing the attack in the Ocheretyne region. Also along the line southward from Kupyansk to Yampil.
Fierce fighting reported north of Kharkiv at Vovchansk.
Outlook —
Continued assessments that Russia has lost the initiative in Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar and is losing the edge elsewhere, even though launching a large number of attacks.
Watching to see any solid data to show Ukraine retaking terrain in the Kharkiv region.
The sudden flurry of deep strikes by Ukraine into Russia seems to have slowed, but significant damage has been done.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel believes more than a third of the remaining Gaza hostages are dead
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu - We are ready for a very strong move on the northern front
***
Israel believes more than a third of the remaining Gaza hostages are dead, a government tally showed Tuesday, as the United States sought to advance their recovery under a proposal to wind down the war with Hamas.
Of about 250 people dragged into the Gaza Strip by Hamas-led Palestinian gunmen during the Oct. 7 cross-border rampage that sparked the war, scores were freed in a November truce, while others have been recovered – dead or alive – by Israeli troops.
The government tally said 120 remain in captivity, 43 of whom have been declared dead in absentia by Israeli officials based on various sources of information, including intelligence tip-offs, CCTV or bystander videos and forensic analysis.
Some officials have privately said the number of dead could be higher.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-hostages-war/2024/06/04/id/1167383/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting renewed in central gaza as the Israeli military says it had launched a new operation against Hamas in the Bureij camp in the central Gaza Strip.It says fighter jets are striking Hamas targets in Bureij, as ground forces are operating “in a precise manner” in the area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Various unconfirmed reports of extensive and intense air strikes on Hezbollah site in S Lebanon. Much of the action north of Kiryat Shmona.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I’m reading more and more statements regarding the readiness of Israel to tear into Hezbollah and in a relatively soon timeframe. Without massive reserve call ups I don’t see how they can kick a major operation off while still invested in Gaza. One of the stated goals of Israel is to push Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and across the Litani River. That’s gonna take a lot of ground forces. Already the IAF has had little opposition in striking key Hezbollah targets and leaders and I would think they would continue to do this while avoiding a full up two front war.
Naturally i see much of the rhetoric being propaganda designed to put Hezbollah and IRGC/Iran at ill ease. Loss of leaders at multiple levels in all organizations has got to have put a kink in the planning for an Israeli offensive.
Israel is positioned to blunt any Hezbollah preemptive ground attack with rocket support. As seen in the Oct 7 response of the reserves, IDF could build forces very rapidly and launch its attack within a week.
I am monitoring another key indicator of Israeli action - the intensity and numbers of IAfF air strikes that could be deemed as more directly preparing the battle field for an imminent ground assault. Israel is already doing this at a ‘strategic’ level with its leadership stakes and key facility hits. Switch to intense strikes targeting rocket launchers and storage is the indicator for imminent ground attacks.
Remembrance of the D-Day invasion 80 yrs ago. Our country had strong citizens, not the soy boys and purple haired radical shemales of today.
Economy-
In a sign that hiring may be slowing down, U.S. businesses added just 152,000 new jobs in May, marking the smallest increase this year, according to payroll giant ADP.
Economists had forecast a higher figure of 175,000.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US successfully launched a Minute Man missile overnight from Vanderburg AFB
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Mexico reports world’s first-ever human case of H5N2 bird flu. The patient, a 59-year-old, died. The patient, a 59-year-old from Mexico, had no history of exposure to poultry or other animals.
The individual had “chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes” and “had no history of exposure to poultry.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The FBI witness tells Hunter Biden’s jury there was NO DATA TAMPERING on his laptop! Funny how that works out.
***
ATLANTA (AP) — An appeals court has halted the Georgia election interference case against former President Donald Trump and others while it reviews the lower court judge’s ruling allowing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to remain on the case.
The Georgia Court of Appeals on Wednesday issued the order, which will prevent Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee from moving forward with pretrial motions while the appeal is pending.
OBSERVATION - Fani should be sweating bullets.
Russia -
*****
The U.S. has been tracking Russian warships and aircraft that are expected to arrive in the Caribbean for a military exercise in the coming weeks, in a Russian show of force as tensions rise over Western military support for Ukraine, U.S. officials said Wednesday.
The ships also are expected possibly to make port calls in Venezuela and Cuba, as Russia establishes a Western Hemisphere military presence that the senior Biden administration officials said was notable but not concerning. The exercise, which will be monitored by the U.S. military, will involve a “handful” of Russian ships and support vessels, the two officials said.
It’s not the first time Russia has sent its ships to the Caribbean. This exercise, however, is taking place as Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Moscow could take “asymmetrical steps” elsewhere in the world in response to President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia to protect Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ships-caribbean-ukraine-b43c5b448f5803e2c8c1466e4ad7516d
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 17 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukrainian drones successfully hit the Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery tonight, causing a severe blaze to break out. Operations have been shuttered at the plant and a firefighting train has been deployed.
Oil depot was attacked by a drone in Staryy Oskol district of Belgorod region
Ukrainian Military Intelligence destroyed project 498 Saturn tug boat in occupied Crimea with naval drones
Russian ground forces launched attacks south of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
In spite of continued Russian attacks, it appears that they are reaching the end of what can be considered an offensive, with very little territory gained over the past few weeks.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF calling up more reservists.
- IAF made a lot of air strikes in S Lebanon overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Reuters: Hamas lost about half of its forces during eight months of war and relies on hit-and-run tactics
***
The IDF announced on June 5 that it will increase the maximum active reservists by 50,000 soldiers.
***
The IDF is establishing a new rapid-response unit to respond to “terrorist incidents” in the Gaza Strip.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Army: - We withdrew the Bishalah Brigade from the city of Rafah, south of the Gaza Strip. There are now 9 IDF brigades operating throughout Gaza (5 of them in Rafah), a total of ~13,000 soldiers.
Israel army says it hit a Hamas compound in UNRWA school in central Gaza. Local health officials say 40 people killed. Hamas and PIJ elements were observed firing on IDF from buildings within the school complex.
The IDF continued clearing operations throughout Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Gantz, addressing officials of towns in northern Israel: Prepare for difficult days that may turn into a real war.
Channel 12 is reporting that Israel will not go into Lebanon before the operation in Rafah is completed—about three weeks from now.
Massive bombing by IDF in Lebanon overnight, many reports of widespread power outages.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemen’s Houthi rebels unveil solid-fuel ‘Palestine’ missile that resembles Iranian hypersonic missile. The Houthi fired its new “Palestine” missile, complete with a warhead painted like a Palestinian keffiyeh checkered scarf, at the southern Gulf of Aqaba port of Eilat in Israel on Monday. The attack set off air raid sirens but caused no reported damage or injuries.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Spain will ask a U.N. court to join South Africa’s case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Several non-European nations have already made the request
——— FORECAST ————————-
OK, starting to see key indicators of actions for S Lebanon. Second night of heavy airstrikes, likely designed to prepare the battlefield for ground forces entry. The call up of 50K reservists is a partial indicator as well, but this may be due to the rotation out of existing operating reserves. IIRC, Israeli reservists can only server 3 months at a stretch, so the need for new call ups.
Some OSINT analysts are looking at August for Israel to tackle Hezbollah. This is an early window and a lot will depend on how quickly Israel can clean up in Gaza. Part of future Gaza operations is the quick strike unit set up which would free up units for operations against Hezbollah.
Another indicator continues to be warnings by Israeli leadership that operations against Hezbollah will soon begin.
Lebanon -
US Embassy in Beirut has closed for the day after a Syrian national wearing a vest with “IS” written on it opened fire at the entrance. The Lebanese Army shot and wounded the assailant