A lot of activity bubbling up in other areas now that the verdict and most aftershocks have passed.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
June 8 - Surround the WH.
***
ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an anti-war group founded three days after the September 11, 2001 attacks, has launched an event to “Get on a bus to DC” and “Surround the White House for Palestine.”
“June 8 marks 8 months of US-Israeli genocide of the Palestinian people, and marks the 54th anniversary of the occupation of Gaza. A month ago, Biden said that the invasion of Rafah was a red line. But now, the invasion of Rafah has continued for weeks, has expanded to the entire Gaza Strip, Biden’s red line is nowhere to be seen,” ANSWER wrote on its website.
The group continued, “Biden can’t draw the line, but we can. On June 8, we will come together from across the country and surround the White House.”
OBSERVATION - I noted this event last week. It looks like it maybe growing legs as Israeli operations maintain tempo in Rafah. Embedded in this call to assemble, other groups/elements have included calls for violence. It is uncertain if an attempt to breach the WH security fence is being planned or just targeting less protected buildings/features in DC.
***
HBO ‘Real Time’ host Bill Maher has predicted that if Donald Trump is sentenced to any prison time, there will be a civil war that will quickly evolve into a race war because of MAGA supporters.
“Here’s the key question: Is he going to go to jail? Would this judge dare do that?” Maher said, adding “And should he? I heard some people say if his name wasn’t Donald Trump he would definitely get jail time.”
“MAGA nation will go nuts. I don’t know if that’s a reason to or not to do something, but they will,” Maher continued during the discussion with former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod.
Maher went on to suggest that “because the judge’s name was Juan,” putting Trump in jail would lead to racial political violence.
“Everything becomes racial in this country. That’s partly because of our horrible, despicable racial past, partly because some of that racism lives on in the present and some of it because the far left makes everything racial. But that’s what it’s going to be.” Maher further posited.
“A civil war in this country, I’m sorry to say, becomes a race war. That’s the sad truth about this country,” the host continued, adding “And if they put him in jail, I mean, the first thing his supporters are going to say is, ‘Oh, that’s what it is.’ A Black district attorney. You know, all these people who are the district attorneys, they’re black. The judge was not White. This is what it is.”
https://modernity.news/2024/06/02/maher-if-trump-goes-to-jail-there-will-be-a-racial-civil-war/
OBSERVATION - Maher is a mouth piece of the center left. In this dialogue he continues the left’s view of a civil war triggered by conservatives. Though he doesn’t say it, he, like other liberal mouthpieces, salivated for violence by the right in the face of the conviction last week. Now, too, the mantra of everything having a ‘racist’ basis - the only lens the left sees things thru - is the grounds for a CW.
Talking with a friend this weekend and he made the clear commentary that is applicable as well. The left sees violence as a means to an end, dialing up or down like a thermostat. The right sees it more like an on/off switch, preferring to work thru the dying methods of democratic processes and courts before burning the town down. Leftists seek to trigger a CW, but they don’t realize that once the right flips the switch, it won’t get dialed down and will get very ugly.
***
This weekend we saw the left eating the left as two privileged groups faced off. “Pro Palestine” protesters stop gay pride parade in Philadelphia.
This may well create an interesting dynamic as the likelihood of protests/rioting grow towards the Nov election. LGBT have been out in force supporting pro-Hamas protests and actions. Now the islamic factions are showing their true face. Will this deter future LGBT support of hamas?
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
(The Epoch Times)—Myocarditis and pericarditis only occur after vaccination and not after COVID-19 infection, according to a recent preprint led by researchers at Oxford University, which compared health outcomes among COVID-vaccinated and unvaccinated children.
“Whilst rare, all myocarditis and pericarditis events during the study period occurred in vaccinated individuals,” the authors wrote. There were no deaths from myocarditis or pericarditis.
OBSERVATION - More evidence of the very negative effects of the jab and impact on young people. The write up seems to try to smooth over the dangers of the jab, but is forced to recognize that the jab is more hazardous than recovering naturally from wuhan.
***
More on children and the jab -
Children who received the AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines faced an elevated risk of epilepsy and appendicitis, according to a new study.
Pfizer recipients were also more likely to suffer from demyelinating disease or heart inflammation, researchers found.
Dr. Julia Hippisley-Cox, a professor of clinical epidemiology at the University of Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, and colleagues obtained data from a national database on COVID-19 vaccination, mortality, hospital admissions, and COVID-19 infections. They wanted to look at the link between COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca, Pfizer, and Moderna with 12 outcomes, including the heart inflammation condition called myocarditis.
In the primary analysis, researchers found 12- to 17-year-olds who received Pfizer’s vaccine were at increased risk of myocarditis, with an additional three cases per million versus the expected rate after a first dose, and an additional five cases per million after a second dose, and hospitalization with epilepsy, with an additional 12 cases per million after a second dose. Females in the age group also faced an increased risk of demyelinating disease after receiving a second dose of the vaccine.
Researchers also identified a “substantially increased risk of hospitalization with epilepsy” among females after receipt of a first dose of AstraZeneca’s shot, with 813 more hospitalizations with epilepsy than expected per million doses, and an elevated risk of appendicitis after a second dose of the vaccine, with 512 excess events per million doses.
A secondary analysis, involving matching some of the vaccine recipients to unvaccinated children, confirmed an increased risk among 12- to 17-year-olds of hospitalization with epilepsy following Pfizer vaccination, and elevated risks of severe allergic shock and appendicitis in the age group following Pfizer vaccination. No increased risks of any outcome were identified among minor Moderna or AstraZeneca recipients. But among a group of 18- to 24-year-olds studied, elevated risks of a number of conditions were found, including myocarditis, immune or idiopathic thrombocytopenia, epilepsy, and acute pancreatitis.
OBSERVATION - The real grind is that this information became readily apparent early in the plandemic and concerns were buried by the globalist powers that be.
***
Speaking to counsel on behalf of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic earlier this year, Fauci essentially said that the made up the distance rules along with others inflicted on Americans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Word out of the Trump camp that in the 3 days since the conviction they have raised over 200 million in campaign funds.
Meanwhile, the left is salivating at the possibility of Trump being jailed over these banana republic charges.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The Department of Justice is withholding the audio from President Joe Biden‘s interview with former special counsel Robert Hur due to fears that it will be altered by artificial intelligence, according to a court filing.
CNN, the Heritage Foundation, and Judicial Watch, among others, have all been denied Freedom of Information Act requests for the audio and have subsequently filed suit against the Justice Department. In response, it issued a court filing Friday night to explain why it won’t release the audio from Hur’s interview with Biden.
“Disclosure of that record is unwarranted,” the filing reads. “Release of the audio recording would threaten critical law enforcement interests by chilling the potential cooperation of witnesses in current and future sensitive investigations. In addition, disclosure would constitute a significant invasion of privacy. … These privacy harms are amplified by the threat of malicious manipulation of audio files that has recently become much more acute.”
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/3025398/doj-deepfakes-withhold-hur-audio/
OBSERVATION - There is also a lot of talk that Garland/DoJ has now classified the audio/video of biden’s interview by Hur as CLASSIFIED (unknown level) / Sensitive Compartmented Information and stored in a SCIF. This follows evidence that the transcript that was released of the interview was altered to put biden in a better light.
Now lets be clear - if the interview is now classified at a compartmented level - the transcript derived from it would also be at the same classification level. Garland is definitely playing the game to keep the real interview out of the hands of the public knowing full well it would destroy any remaining level of belief that biden has the mental faculties to remain president.
***
This week’s White House Report Card finds President Joe Biden fighting off a new round of consultant backstabbing over his reelection campaign and continued efforts to replace him at the top of the 2024 Democratic ticket.
Democratic pollster and grader John Zogby described the battle as shameful and said that the “consultant-industrial complex” is in full panic mode months too early and at a time when they should be rallying around the president. What’s more, Zogby said that they are worrying for nothing, considering that some polls show Biden still tied with former President Donald Trump.
For his part, Trump had a miserable week, being convicted of 34 charges in New York.
The White House was socked again by a report that inflation was not cooling but remaining above the Fed’s 2% goal. And Biden offered up yet another Gaza peace plan without first winning any support from Israel.
Even worse, said conservative grader Jed Babbin, the administration’s efforts in Gaza turned disastrous when its $320 million humanitarian aid pier broke apart in a storm, what he called “the perfect metaphor for the Biden administration.”
OBSERVATION - This turmoil is being kept under wraps for now to avoid public scrutiny. How much longer is uncertain. Even though they said above that Trump had a miserable week - they ignore the massive response in both fundraising as well as at least a 6 point bump in support over biden.
I’ve noted before the dems are in a hole, they see support for biden and the agenda crumbling under the facts of bidenocomics and other policy disasters that are making the lives of americans miserable. But they have no bench to call upon to fix that and the puppeteers behind biden look to fight to the death if necessary to keep him as the candidate.
Dem alternatives at current are
- Harris - nut job with lower approval rating that biden
- Newscum - used car salesman and gov of a failing Kalifornia
- Mike 0bama - what ever “it” is.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is boasting its border policies are now cutting illegal immigration, but a new report has exposed a veritable shell game that is effectively covering its “mass amnesty” designs by making the numbers of asylum cases disappear.
More than 350,000 migrants cases have “terminated without a decision on the merits of their asylum claim” by the Biden administration if individuals did not have a criminal record or were not deemed a threat, the New York Post reported Sunday.
Those illegals are removed from the legal record and are not required to check in with authorities, allowing illegals to live “indefinitely” in the U.S. without fear of deportation.
“This is just a massive amnesty under the guise of prosecutorial discretion,” Center for Immigration Studies’ Andrew Arthur, a former immigration judge, told the Post.
“You’re basically allowing people who don’t have a right to be in the United States to be here indefinitely.”
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials confirmed the clandestine operation to the Post, urging the exposure of the increase of disappearing asylum cases.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/amnesty-immigration-joe-biden/2024/06/02/id/1167179/
OBSERVATION - One of multiple efforts by biden to root these illegals into the country and deter deportations.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
A former Russian president on Friday warned that Moscow is not bluffing about its willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and said Kyiv’s international backers are making a “fatal mistake” if they think otherwise.
Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Vladimir Putin and the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, made the menacing remarks in reaction to reports that Western countries—including the U.S.—have given Ukraine permission to use their supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. “The current military conflict with the West is developing according to the worst possible scenario,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram.
“Russia regards all long-range weapons used by Ukraine as already being directly controlled by servicemen from NATO countries,” Medvedev wrote. He claimed that such activity does not constitute “military assistance” to Ukraine, but rather active “participation in a war against us.”
Medvedev claimed such actions “could well become a casus belli,” meaning an action which provokes war.
He went on to claim that NATO countries who control Ukraine’s long-range weapons or send a contingent of troops to support Kyiv would be committing a “serious escalation of the conflict.”
“Ukraine and its NATO allies will receive a response of such destructive force that the Alliance itself simply will not be able to resist being drawn into the conflict,” he said.
Medvedev also said “retired NATO farts” who claim that Russia would never use a tactical nuclear weapon—bombs designed for use on the battlefield which have typically lower yields than strategic nukes—had previously “miscalculated” by asserting that Russia “would not enter into an open military conflict” with Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Medvedev has been blowing a lot about Russian nuke strikes against NATO nations for the past several years now. These threats are now hearing echos from putin and the Kremlin with the freeing up of the use of western supplied weapons on Russian territory in recent days as well as developing reports that France is going to move military into Ukraine to train soldiers.
***
Russia transferred two Karakurt-class vessels from the Black Sea further east to the Caspian Sea after “a series of successful Ukrainian attacks,” the U.K. Defense Ministry said, - Newsweek
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian HIMARS have been very active the past 24 hours. Ukrainian military destroyed Russian S-300 missile complex in Belgorod region of Russia
A Russian supply base in the industrial district of Shebekino, Belgorod Region, Russia, was wiped out overnight from a HIMARs stake
Rumint. Russian airfieilds are reportedly getting slaughtered by storm shadow missiles in both Belgorod and Kursk (Russia). NOTE - biden restricts HIMAR use against airbases, thus use of Storm Shadow.
Ukrainian Defense forces have destroyed Russian military column in Kursk region of Russia near border, northeast of Sumy.
At Kharkiv axis clashes today near Starytsia, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Russia continued attacks around Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne.
Outlook —
Ukraine is focusing on eliminating Russian logistics and command with its new authorization to strike Russian targets. Russian laxness in securing these targets is biting them on the rear big time.
Action one the Kharkiv front appear to have swung in favor of Ukraine.. Unconfirmed Russian milbloggers noting that Russian forces are being cut off from their logistical resupply and their armor/tanks are being decimated. Reports also note that a considerable number of the tanks are of the T-62 and T-54/55 era. Lack of armor reflected in motorcycle and ‘golf cart’ charges by infantry.
In action further to the south - Russia continues to launch attacks in an effort to maintain the initiative, but have been getting little to no results. Ukraine resupply has allowed them to resume the deadly hits on Russian logistics and destroying attack elements in piecemeal fashion.
Russia at the moment, seems slow to respond to the change in the battlefield dynamics. With most of their reserves committed and now uncommitted reserves threatened by HIMAR and other strikes they seem to be stuck in how to respond.
For Crimea, Ukraine is seriously softening it up. Russian continues to lose important ADA assets, the Black Sea Fleet is on the run. Russian airfields are exposed and the Kerch Bridge is endangered. The push by Ukraine into Crimea may well be enhance by CAS from F-16s. Air support has been seriously lacking last summer. Ukraine seems to be preparing the battlefield for a thrust into Crimea.
Expect continued brutal fighting as Russia ‘meat’ attack continue and Ukraine sharpens its ‘deep attack’ with looser rules of engagement.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany and US have now allowed Ukraine to shoot down Russian Fighter Jets and Bombers over Russian Territory using Patriot air defense systems. This means that Russia glide bombing attacks will suddenly become more hazardous for Russians as their release points are well within the Patriot defensive envelope.
France is reportedly going to announce on Jun 6th the deployment of forces to Ukraine to train soldiers.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Action along the Lebanon border seems to be picking up.
- Israel has targeted more Hezbollah leaders with pinpoint attacks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The body of medic Dolev Yehud, 35, was identified on Monday morning via scientific analysis. Yehud was believed to be held hostage by Hamas after the October 7 attacks.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting reported in the western Rafah area.
Intense fighting reported in eastern Gaza City.
Egypt continues to demand that Israeli forces leave the Philadelphia strip and the Rafah crossing areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF issued a statement Sunday:
This week, the IDF conducted an exercise in General Staff command centers as part of the IDF’s readiness for a campaign in the northern arena.
Regular and reservist soldiers participated in the exercise at the headquarters of the Northern Command and in all IDF branches and directorates. The exercise included scenarios simulating an expanded war in the northern arena, as well as multi-arena warfare.
The IDF continues to strengthen its readiness at all times and learn lessons during the course of the war.
Hezbollah is violating United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, the resolution that ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006 and prohibited Hezbollah from locating military installations south of the Litani River.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-35/
IDF and IAF stepped up strikes on Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon overnight.
In the West Bekaa: The Abu Rashid area and the entrance to the town of Midoun in the West Bekaa were subjected to raids by Israeli warplanes.
An Israeli drone targets a car on the coastal road between Zahrani and Tyre, southern Lebanon, containing likely Hezbollah leaders.
Overnight (Sunday), Israeli army fighter jets struck a Hezbollah launcher and military structures in the areas of Naqoura, Maroun El Ras, and Khiam in southern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Several pro-Assad forces members were killed in an Israeli air attack targeting military sites linked to Iran in the vicinity of the city of Aleppo, Syria
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The IDF said it used the Arrow ballistic interceptor on Monday to shoot down a surface-to-surface missile launched in the Red Sea area, after sounding sirens in the port city of Eilat to send residents to shelters.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Gaza ops continue unabated with action in Rafah growing.
Global ‘’outrage “ over Rafah is on the decline.
Increased focus on if Israel is going to pull the trigger and enter Lebanon before adequately quelling Hamas in Gaza.
Mexico -
Mexico’s left-leaning climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum has secured enough votes to become the Latin American country’s first-ever female president.
The country’s electoral institute published a rapid count estimate late Sunday night saying that Sheinbaum had won the presidential election. The estimate has a margin of error of +/-1.5%, the institute said.
In a speech after the preliminary results, Sheinbaum said the government will have “republican austerity, financial and fiscal discipline and autonomy,” according to a CNBC translation, adding that the country “will never have an authoritarian or oppressive government.”
“We will maintain the required division between the economic power and the political power. We will always defend and we will work for the ultimate interest of the people of Mexico and of the nation,” she said.
Sheinbaum also sketched out a loose vision of Mexico’s ties with neighboring U.S. under her stewardship. “With the United States, there will be a relationship of friendship, mutual respect and equality, as has been the case until now. And we will always defend Mexicans who find themselves on the other side of the frontier,” she said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/03/mexico-elects-claudia-sheinbaum-as-first-ever-female-president.html
OBSERVATION - Though her initial acceptance seems to try to track a middle ground, being a leftist climate “scientists” pretty much shows she’ll track WEF related policies and support.
Misc of Note –
I’ve gotten my interim 10 meter HF antenna up and ready to operate with the local HAM club in the event of an emergency. I can also monitor other bands for information. Local solar activity has been making a mess out of day time HF but have received some signals. Studying for General license and making preps to install a multi band HF antenna in the near future
Comms isn’t always for reaching out but to gather information that mayn’t otherwise be available. Recommend getting you Ham licenses or getting a good short wave radio should conditions under just about any emergency conditions make local news reporting difficult to obtain
And June 7 marks 8 months since the slaughter and peace time attack on innocent Israeli citizens.
If muslims don't like Israel's response, they shouldn't start anything. Israel did not attack them out of the blue and for no reason, like they did to Israel.
There's not going to be a civil war. You're right Godzilla - that's a liberal wet dream. Notice there's not even talk about conservative 'protest'. Liberals have started with violent protest again and as usual nothing happen tso them. Hamas could come to New York and shoot up citizens and nothing would happen to them - as long as they stood with Antifa and Democrats victim groups. They could stand with BLM and burn down half the city and nothing would happen to them.
If we sneezed in the wrong place our people would be put in jail. The plan? Keep inviting minorities to join with us against white liberal 'elties'... and after a period of time - get a peaceful divorce from Progressive (commie) United States. No one wants a civil war. After a while everyday democrats will see we're right - and join with us to peacefully divide the country. They get thier blue hellhole states we take our free red states. Everyone's happy.
Bill Maher is a pot stirring race baiter. With the left making statements like that as if they were fact, they are CAUSING the problem of racial divide in this country.
The whole race thing is the left's doing.
Globalism / Great Reset –
A new Vermont law charges oil companies for climate change damage – based on the state distinguishing between which specific weather events it thinks were caused by greenhouse gas and which weren’t.
The first such state measure in the U.S, S. 259 became law Thursday night after Republican Governor Phil Scott refused to veto it. The act will go into effect July 1, 2024.
Under the law, Vermont will decree specifically which hurricanes, for example, were due to climate change. Vermont will then assign the cost of the damage done by each weather event.
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia is not the only state instituting insane climate change laws. The Northeast US is rushing to keep up. See the link for details. Virtually impossible to defend, it will stay active because of leftist courts ignoring the reality that specific storms cannot be directly linked to GW.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
June 8 - Surround the WH.
***
Anti-Israel agitators occupied the Israeli consulate in San Francisco on Monday, demanding that “all of Palestine” be liberated and claiming they are coming for the “right-wing white nationalist” Zionist organizations.
***
A citywide tactical alert has been declared due to multiple pro-Palestine protesters setting up an encampment near LA City Hall A mobile field force with officers from various divisions is being mobilized and is currently staging at a command post. So far, about 20 tents possibly more have been set up around the area so far with reports of tensions are rising this situation is developing.
OBSERVATION ON THE TWO ABOVE - I noted reports that the pro-hamas ‘movement’ was seeking to expand its encampment campaign to targets outside of university campuses. These are just two examples of this new move.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Now reports of trump raising over 200 million just from the verdict, with hundreds of millions starting to pour into separate PACs from multiple billionaires across the country.
Illegal Immigration –
The White House is telling lawmakers that President Joe Biden is preparing to sign off on an executive order that would shut down asylum requests to the U.S.-Mexico border once the number of daily encounters hits 2,500 between ports of entry, with the border reopening once that number declines to 1,500, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
The impact of the 2,500 figure means that the border could be closed to migrants seeking asylum effectively immediately, because daily figures are higher than that now.
OBSERVATION - This is much like the Senate bill that sets the limit at 4000 per day. Mostly an administration gig as the flow of illegals will continue - illegally. Only deals with asylum requests.
China –
China’s moon probe has reportedly lifted off from the far side of the moon, bring lunar samples with it on a return flight to earth.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles, another one may have hit Dnipro city. Another missile/drone may have hit in the Odesa region.
Kharkiv axis saw clashes overnight near Lyptsi, and Vovchansk. More reports, mostly from Russian milbloggers that Russian forces are beginning to lose ground.
Reports that Russian forces attempted to press the attack on Chasiv Yar by crossing a portion of eastern irrigation canal where it goes underground, only to have those forces surrounded and eliminated.
Russian forces continued to press attacks along the line from Ocheretyne south to Vuhledar.
Biden admin to hold talks with Ukraine about allowing Kyiv to strike in more parts of Russia with US-provided weapons, NSC spox John Kirby told reporters yesterday.
Outlook —
Flush with re-arrmament and freer weapons use, it is becoming evident that Ukraine has stripped the initiative from Russia on a couple of key fronts. As noted previously, the Russian Kharkiv push has been stopped and is beginning to lose ground as Ukraine increasingly interdicts support - isolating the front line. Chasiv Yar has held against Russia assaults and Moscow maintains it as one of its key objectives - throwing resources at it only to have them destroyed in detail.
Ukraine also has Russia forces in Crimea in jeopardy. In addition to putting the Black Sea fleet on the run, Russia has lost considerable S300 and S400 ADA units as well as expensive regional early warning radar systems - exposing forces to even more drone and rocket attacks.
The question is - will Ukraine attempt a large scale offensive like last summer? I don’t think so at this moment. Much of the arms resupply are being burned through stopping the current Russian offensive. If Ukraine is holding back some elements I think they may be planning a more limited and targeted offensive. The most likely is to push Russia back to the border in the Kharkiv region - this has the highest likelihood of success. An even more ambitious one would be a push towards Crimea. That option is dangerous in that Ukraine faces the same massive minefields and defenses that stalled last year’s offensive. An alternative would be to launch a surprise assault utilizing the bridgehead in the Kherson sector over the Dniper River. This is currently the shortest route to Crimea for Ukraine forces. Last review, Russian defenses have been thinned in this sector thinking that the river would provide adequate deterrent from a large operations. This is where F-16 could provide localized air superiority and CAS to protect a crossing.
Russia’s counter deep strike forces have been quiet lately, yielding to Ukraine’s attacks. Two thought. 1) Russia has drained its stockpiles from previous massive attacks and/or 2) Russia is searching for logistical sites containing concentrated resupplied arms and munitions to mass a strike against. The last would suggest that Ukraine has rediscovered OPSEC - an issue that caused it a lot of problems in the early defensive fight against the Russian offensive.
Russia reportedly has lost over 35,000 troops in Apr/May. They are near the bottom of the barrel to continue the offensive for much longer.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- bodies of 4 hostages recovered.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Four more hostages kidnapped on Oct. 7 were declared dead by the Israeli military — including three older adults seen in a Hamas video begging to be released.
All four of the men declared dead Monday night — Nadav Popplewell, Amiram Cooper, Yoram Metzger and Haim Peri — were kidnapped and taken into Gaza still alive, according to the Hostages Forum, a grassroots group representing the families of the hostages.
***
Today, the Israeli War Council is discussing the escalation on the border with Lebanon.
***
A Hamas official told Al-Mayadeen that no delegation from the group went to Cairo, and that it did not accept what was offered by the mediators
Reportedly the G7 nations are backing the biden peace plan.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress on June 13. His 4th appearance before a joint session.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Tempo a little lower lately as units continue to rotate in/out of Gaza. Rafah has now reportedly been cut in half by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Al Jazeera correspondent reports more than 30 missiles were launched towards the Golan Heights
Large fires burning in northern Israel, sparked by rocket fire from Hezbollah. Overnight, Israeli firefighters reportedly have gotten most of them under control.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Saeed Abiyar, a member of the IRGC in Syria, was killed by an Israeli strike last night in Aleppo
——— FORECAST ————————-
A lot of rumbling over accelerated Israeli preparations for shifting the war into Lebanon. While there has been some Hezbollah escalation of late, the rocket attacks and ground activity that I’ve seen reported have not reached a level of tactical concern. The increase seem to be associated with losses of key Hezbollah and IRGC leadership to Israeli targeted strikes. A lot of the news releases over preparations for war in Lebanon may well be propaganda/psyops to keep Hezbollah and Iran uneasy.
Israel so far is operating with its active 12 brigades, most of whom are in Gaza. The reserves necessary for an even larger operation in Lebanon are not currently called up. Even though the IDF reserves are highly trained to activate and fall in on their equipment, an operation the size necessary to go into Lebanon will require these units to be activated and integrated into OPLANS prior to D day. It would be potentially very disastrous for Israel to attack with the relative few active brigades and wait the several days necessary for reserve units to come to speed and join the attack.
A growth n reserve activations is one of the key indicators to look for. However, IDF may in a sneaky way get many units activated under the guise of training ‘exercises’, each growing larger with progressive cycles. I’ve already seen at least 2 reports exercises in a Lebanese scenario.
Still, common sense would look to a significant reduction in the Gaza operations before an Israeli initiated assault on Hezbollah and S Lebanon. This is still months away.