Words escape me this morning following yesteday’s verdict. I mentally knew that such was very likely given how the court was stacked against Trump, by my normalcy bias kept hoping that true American justice would win out. The impact was visceral, this is clearly no longer the nation I grew up in.
With yesterday’s kangaroo court ruling, this country has entered the most dangerous uncharted waters ever in its history. In their desperation, democrats have burned the justice system to the ground, the gates are open and the rest of the nation may soon feel the wrath of the regime’s maniacal quest to remain in power.
This is far from over folks. But America has crossed a Rubicon of sorts. May 30, 2024 will be remembered in history books (should things last that long) as being as fateful as Pearl Harbor, 9/11 and Ft Sumter. It all depends on how Americans respond to this outrage. So far the blowback appears to be large. Will that energy be maintained through to Nov? Time will tell.
To the democrats - a warning that the bell can never be unrung. Will this turn to violence? If so, its on the democrats. Further, this now opens democrats up to similar treatment in the future.
Keep your powder dry, hold your fire for now. They want an excuse to crack down on you - to usher in their full blown, military backed totalitarian state. We are entering a very dangerous period. Prepare now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Speaking at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit earlier this month, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggested the audience think of information manipulation as a virus and then said it’s better to vaccinate than treat the infection.
At the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, von der Leyen pontificated that “research has shown that pre-bunking is more successful than de-bunking. Pre-bunking is the opposite of de-bunking. In short, prevention is preferable to cure.”
Pre-bunking is an approach based on the psychological theory of “inoculation,” which suggests that exposing people to weakened doses of misinformation can help them develop “mental antibodies” against false news.
https://expose-news.com/2024/05/30/people-should-be-vaccinated-against-wrongthink/
OBSERVATION - Information control and censorship of ‘mis-information’ are still big on the globalist agenda. Here we have a heaping dose of propaganda to set the desired thoughts of people’s minds along the desired course and to write off contrary thoughts and opinions.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Several Students for Justice in Palestine chapters are set to travel to Washington D.C. to “surround the White House” just days after Hamas and other Palestinian organizations issued a call for students to “besiege” President Biden’s residence.
Students for Justice in Palestine at both North Carolina State University and Duke University have posted a graphic for the June 8 protest, which reads “Biden, we are your red line. Stop the genocide. Surround the White House!”
”Biden can’t draw the line, but we have. On June 8, we’ll come together from across the country and surround the White House. Wearing red, and raising our demands high, we’ll show the world that we are the red line,” the groups wrote in the Instagram post.
The ANSWER Coalition and Peoples Forum NYC posted on Instagram that buses are being made available for transportation to the event from all over the country, including Dearborn, Michigan; Des Moines, Iowa; Portland, Maine; and more.
The announcement of the protest comes just one day after a group of Palestinian organizations, including terror organizations Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, released a message to college students through the “Student Frameworks Secretariat” that called on them to “besiege the White House.”
OBSERVATION - This would continue a trend by the socialist leftists of protesting democrats in control of the govt. Unusual in that it reflects a continued battle within the party over israel, one that these far leftists are willing to go to the mat over.
Note also the link to terrorists organizations apparently calling the shots to some degree. Potential for violent actions associate with this ‘protest’ are high.
***
More and more news reports of assaults by individuals (often illegals) using machetes (or other large knives) appearing. These events are all over Europe as well as in the US - primarily in urban centers. Historically, prior to the ongoing great replacement, machete wars were common in Africa and some locations in central/south America. Easy to get in the US, use in gun control frenzied cities like NY is on the rise IMHO. This is an aspect to keep in mind. Illegal gangsters will still find a way to get guns, but for the rank and file criminal illegals, machetes seem to be the current weapon of choice.
Maintain your situational awareness now more than ever.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Commentator Wayne Allyn Root is claiming he has insider information from within the CIA that there are impending waves of “Red Dawn” terror attacks coming soon to the USA. This is based on the following assumptions -
- (Tens of ) Thousands of terrorist who’ve entered the country illegally over the past three plus years.
- Simple. Inexpensive. All our enemies would need to do is the following: Coordinate 50 groups of terrorists to walk into supermarkets, department stores, train stations, airport terminals, hotel lobbies, restaurants, nightclubs, theatres and schools. 50 groups at the exact same time, in 50 cities across the country. And start killing.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/wayne-root-my-cia-sources-say-biden-administration/
OBSERVATION - This scenario has been postulated for literally decades here on FR and Threat Matrix, so this isn’t anything new. I question the validity of his sources, who also claim such an attack in imminent. On the face, the potential is very much there - especially from the radical islamic sector - as it matched its modus operandi from other global attacks closely. Given the progress of the Gaza war and degrading relations with Iran, such an attack is well within possibility.
So I won’t dismiss his claims out right, but we need a little back up apart from unnamed sources in the CIA.
Economy-
Pending home sales plunge to lowest level in four years as buyers steer clear of 7% mortgage rates
***
The U.S. economy grew less than previously thought in the first three months of the year, expanding at an annual pace of just 1.3 percent, revised government data showed Thursday.
The downward revision was primarily driven by data showing that consumer spending grew by significantly less than previously estimated.
This was the smallest expansion in gross domestic product in almost two years. The prior estimate had the economy growing at a 1.6 percent pace in the first quarter.
OBSERVATION - Watch the MSM bury this down grade with other news. The economy is in poor shape and not thriving as the regime claims
***
A poultry farm in southern Illinois housing 1.2 million chickens caught fire on Wednesday night. Farm is home to one of the largest egg production facilities.
Another had to kill some 4 million due to avian flu
OBSERVATION - Poultry prices will continue to be high for the near term.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The guilty verdicts against trump caused his online donation site to melt down for a period of time from all the donors trying to make contributions.
***
Merchan set July 11 for sentencing - just 4 days before the RNC convention. Analysts note that this is unlikely to occur as appeals will be well underway, haunting any sentencing - at least when the justice system used to work.
***
In a unanimous decision, the Supreme Court ruled today that New York officials violated the First Amendment by coercing insurance and banking companies to no longer do business with the National Rifle Association as punishment for the group’s gun views.
***
The bold faced hypocrisy of the democrats is in full bloom - on one hand demanding that the ‘decision’ of the NY kangaroo court be honored as proper justice while going into full attack mode against the USSC.
***
Noted attorney Alan Dershowitz said on Thursday that he doubts a New York appellate court will overturn former President Donald Trump’s conviction in his Manhattan trial because judges are ‘terrified’ to appear to help Trump.
“I don’t know whether the case will be reversed on appeal. I don’t think it would be reversed by the appellate division,” Dershowitz continued. “These are judges who are terrified of being perceived of as helping Trump in any way. Don’t know whether or not the New York Court of Appeals in Albany will have the ability to not consider the impact it will have on individuals as judges. Surely the Supreme Court wouldn’t, but that’s a way off and there wouldn’t be a decision by the Supreme Court, probably before the election.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden didn’t give his victory dance address to the nation following the jury verdict. Did some one figure out the optics of that would be hideous.
***
Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.
***
The developing ‘virtual’ nomination of biden for the presidency in order to meet the Ohio filing deadline may turn around and bite democrats. There is a lot of political time between this nomination and the convention - a lot of things can happen. The biggest being some sort of event that forces biden to drop out - such as medical conditions or other legal issues. Locking him in now in the face of apparently crashing poll numbers - well, limits their options greatly.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said on Friday it had fired 18 short-range ballistic missiles during a drill as a demonstration of its willingness to launch a pre-emptive strike against South Korea’s “gangsters’ regime” if necessary to counter an attack.
KCNA said artillery troops successfully hit the target of an island about 365 km (230 miles) away as Kim Jong Un oversaw the demonstration at the launch site. It did not identify the island.
Photos published by state media showed 18 missiles, identified by experts as KN-25s, rising into the air from mobile launchers.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/norht-korea-missile-salvo-south-korea/2024/05/31/id/1166923/
OBSERVATION - Follow up on yesterday’s report. It is believed that NK is supplying these missiles to Russia as debris from recent rocket attacks in Kharkiv attest to.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia’s Medvedev says Moscow “is not bluffing” when it talks about the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons.
***
Moscow will perceive the sending of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine as a deliberate signal from NATO in the nuclear field. Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RIA Novosti
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Shahed drones and Iskander-K missile overnight.
In Kharkiv, a Russian missile strike targeted a five-story residential building, resulting in the tragic loss of 4 lives and leaving 25 people injured. Further missile strikes in the vicinity followed the initial attack, with a total of five hits recorded in the Novobavarskyi District.
Fragments of a NK rocket have been identified in Kharkiv.
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirms missile strikes with Neptun missiles at the ferry and oil terminal in Kavkaz port in Krasnodar Krai of Russia
During the night, air defense systems destroyed and intercepted five anti-ship missiles and 29 drones over the Krasnodar Krai, - the Russian Ministry of Defense reports. UAVs was also destroyed over the territory of the Voronezh, Belgorod and Tambov regions.
Sweden will transfer to Ukraine an ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft. There is currently no such equipment in Ukraine.
Biden reportedly approved a policy change that will permit Ukraine to use US-provided weapons, including GMLRS rockets — but not longer-range ATACMS missiles — to strike within Russian territory near the border with Kharkiv Oblast.
Kharkiv Front -
Russia is building up forces near the northern part of Ukraine’s Kharkiv region where it launched an offensive this month, but it still lacks the troop numbers to stage a major push in the area, Ukraine’s top commander said Thursday.
Ukraine says it has stabilized the front in the northeastern Kharkiv region where Russian forces launched a cross-border assault on May 10 that opened a new front in the 27-month-old war and stretched Kyiv’s outnumbered troops.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/ukraine-russia-war/2024/05/30/id/1166743/
Outlook —
Ukraine made two strikes on harbor and related facilities around the Kersch bridge in the past couple days. Lack of sufficient Russian ADA interdiction suggests that Ukraine has seriously degraded the capabilities of the Russians in Crimea.
Another big ticket item is the announcement of the delivery of ASC 890 radar reconnaissance and control aircraft to Ukraine. These are similar in function to the US AWAC systems - providing air control to combat aircraft as well as early warning of enemy activity such as cruise missiles or other airframes. Such a platform will greatly enhance Ukraine’s utilization of their F-16s as well as their other combat aircraft, giving them a potentially significant advantage over Russia.
With the US along with European allies increasingly willingness to allow Ukraine to utilize their given systems to target Russian sites, things may get interesting fast. It is a target rich environment on the Russian side of the border and effective attacks by Ukraine will force Russian planners to greatly alter operations. No longer will they be considered ‘safe’ and allow operations as normal.
Ground fighting will continue to be locally fierce and grueling. Russia’s current minor gains are coming at an increasingly high cost. Suggestions that Russia is moving more forces as reserve in the Kharkiv front (and likely going to potential operations opposite of Sumy) are a concern, but don’t appear to be sufficient enough at this time to do much as Russia has lost the element of surprise in these regions.
The overall enormity of Russia’s manpower surge in the region is interesting. The original invasion utilized around 290,000 troops. Currently it is estimated Russia has about 400,000 - 500,000 troops in theater. Since the start of the war Russia has suffered over 500,000 kia/wia losses.
Russia has placed its economy on war time mode, but with sanctions, replacement of key battlefield systems such as modern tanks and aircraft are severely limited, forcing Russia to dig even deeper into mothballed equipment stored from the end of the cold war. I’ve noted previous that OSINT analysis of open source imagery suggests that these stored tanks and armor are quickly running out - less than a years worth at current burn rates.
Ukraine is facing similar long term shortages. The combined European/US support has drained stockpiles and are exceeding production rates for key items like artillery and air defense rockets. Ukraine has also suffered severe losses in personnel and are facing shortfalls in replacements.
My forecast continues to be Russia forcing the fight to try to maintain the initiative and gain as much as they can before Ukraine’s rearming and new weapons systems come on line. More and more meat grinder actions will continue to be the norm.
Europe / NATO General –
Prime Minister of Hungary - Europe is entering the stage of preparation for war with Russia
***
Ukraine is allowed to fire on Russian territory with military equipment supplied from Germany. According to SPIEGEL information, the government now wants to allow this. Other Western partners also allow this
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas rejects more negotiations without an unconditional ceasefire by Israel.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israeli army has fully removed the US-military built pier from the coast of Gaza, Press Sec Sabrina Singh says. The pier sections have been relocated to Ashdod for repair and rebuilding.
***
Hamas announces that it will not agree to negotiate a hostage deal as long as fighting continues: “told the negotiators we will be willing to negotiate when the fighting stops”
***
Netanyahu’s Likud responds to the decision by Gantz’s party to advance a bill to dissolve the Knesset: “In the midst of a war, Israel needs unity, not division. The dissolution of the unity government is a reward for Sinwar, a surrender to international pressures and a fatal blow to the efforts to free our hostages “
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli military says it has completed operations in Jabaliya, Gaza for now.
Hamas fired a missile from a United Nations-run school in Rafah, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported Thursday, in the latest of its social media updates on the war against the Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza.
“An anti-tank missile was fired from an UNRWA school toward our troops. IDF forces operated in a medical clinic nearby, when an explosive in a booby-trapped tunnel shaft detonated and killed 3 soldiers. During later scans in the school, we found large quantities of weapons.”
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
According to a Senior Israeli Defense official, the order has now been given to the IDF Northern Command and other forces in northern Israel to expand military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
***
The Israeli Army: We monitored the fall of missiles launched from Lebanon towards Zarit in the Western Galilee, without causing any casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Speaker of the Slovenian Parliament: We will approve recognition of the State of Palestine on Tuesday
Swedish security service: Iran has directed security-threatening activity against representatives of other states perceived as enemies of the government, it may be about damaging Israeli and Jewish interests, goals and activities in Sweden - Reuters News
——— FORECAST ————————-
The statement that IDF is going to expand military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is interesting. From what Israeli leadership has stated since October 2023, Gaza will be dealt with first before turning north. This announcement seems to be moving the timetable up several notches. The scope of ‘expanded operations’ is also vague, but there is a hint of a degree of ground operations associated given that the IAF has been running some very extensive operations against Hezbollah.
Gaza fighting continues to be locally fierce. Israel is systematically clearing zones of Hamas and locating tunnels. It will be more than a month before the first phase of the Rafah operation ends and it switches to the baiting of Hamas forces that have gone to ground to come back out to be hit again, the tactic being used in the central and northern portions of Gaza.
We’re next.
”Biden can’t draw the line, but we have. On June 8, we’ll come together from across the country and surround the White House. Wearing red, and raising our demands high, we’ll show the world that we are the red line,” the groups wrote in the Instagram post.
It will be instructive to see how they are treated compared to US citizens who walked peacefully into the capitol building they were let into on Jan 6.
It looks like the remainder of this year is going to be very *interesting*.
It's going to get ugly... democrats are showing their true colors...
Globalism / Great Reset –
ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan has threatened US Congressmen for criticizing the recent judgement against Israel.
The ICC has made it clear that criticizing the court and threatening sanctions when it violates its own rules is illegal. The ICC is threatening to issue arrest warrants against 12 members of Congress.
OBSERVATION - The arrogance of globalist linked organizations like the ICC will continue to grow IMHO in the absence of strong push back from the United States.
Economy-
Inflation continues to re-accelerate, rising again in April according to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data released by the Biden government on Friday. The PCE index, an important measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.3 percent last month, meaning inflation remains stubbornly around three percent — still above the central bank’s two percent target.
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/05/31/bidenomics-inflation-rises-again-in-april/
***
After unexpectedly slumping last month to 37.9, the Chicago PMI index cratered even more unexpectedly in May, when it defied hopes of a rebound to 41.5, and instead tumbled even more, sliding to a cycle low of 35.4 which was not only below the lowest estimate, but was staggeringly low. (in comparison to previous lows) the economy is in a depression.
Looking at the report we find the following:
- Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Employment fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
- Supplier deliveries fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Production fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
- Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Did nothing rise? One thing did:
- Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion
So we have not just a depression, but a stagflationary depression in which everything else is going to hell, except prices: they keep on rising.
OBSERVATION - The PMI is one of those magic numbers economists use to gauge the economy and its trends. Note that these are their opinions of the data. Theirs is not the only economic voice expressing concerns about potential stagflation, but it gets stark associating it with a depression.
Note too that the GDP for last month was lowered by .3 while inflationary pressures continue to increase (see PCE above).
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
- USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) departed Japan for the final time & on patrol in the Western Pacific
- USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) carrier strike group (CSG) left Singapore & now operating in the South China Sea
- The Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) CSG is underway in the Red Sea, & will eventually be relieved by USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
- USS George Washington (CVN 73) arrived in Argentina & will circumnavigate South America to link up with Reagan in CA before heading to the Indo-Pacific
- USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) is underway conducting exercises off the West Coast in preparation for an upcoming Pacific deployment
- USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) was in Los Angeles for Fleet Week, & will participate in the RIMPAC exercises held near Hawaii from 26 June to 2 August
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Things appear not to be working out for democrats like they thought following the kangaroo court conviction of Trump.
In the first post verdict poll, Trump got a 6 point bump in favorability ratings (Daily Mail).
In a NPR Poll: 67% of voters say Trump’s guilty verdict makes no difference in their vote. 15% say they want to vote Trump even harder now.
The Trump campaign has raised a total of $52.8 million in the 24 hours following Trump’s conviction in New York.
The amount means the Trump campaign is raking in over $2 million an hour.
The Trump campaign also reported that over a third of the donations came from new donors.
OBSERVATION - How sustainable is this bounce? With something like 6 months to the election it is hard to say. But the likely longest lasting impact is the overall view that this was rigged and concern that the democrats have destroyed the justice system in their frenzy to ‘get Trump’. This is something Trump can play on, but don’t over play it. Other critical items such as the economy, illegals, crime, etc are still higher on the minds of Americans at this point. It has seemed that the bear has finally gotten tired of being poked by the regime and is rousing itself. Perhaps like the resurrection of the “silent majority”. But these numbers should be putting a damper on leftist celebrations soon, if they hold.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden announced a new ceasefire proposal to keep Hamas in power and vowed the American taxpayer will pay to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
Illegal Immigration –
The Biden administration is preparing to announce new executive action on the border crisis as early as Tuesday, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
The sources stressed that the timing of the order is variable.
Similar to the controversial Title 42 from the Trump era, the executive action reportedly centers on presidential authority in immigration law, known as section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
According to the Florida-based Messersmith Law Firm, which specializes in immigration law, section 212(f) “allows the President to prohibit entry into the US of any foreign national he deems would be detrimental to US interests.”
CNN reported that section 212(f) would be applied between ports of entry at the U.S.-Mexico border to stem the flow of illegal border crossings.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/biden-southern-border-executive-action/2024/05/31/id/1166989/
OBSERVATION - Purely a political move to try to stop the bleeding from an open border policy to show that now, after nearly 4 years, he’s getting tough on illegal immigration.
North/South Korea –
Video released of the recent massive NK missile test/demonstration has yielded some interesting info. More than half of the rockets start veering off course within seconds of launch - a fact that NK video editors missed in their release.
This would match Russian and potentially Iranian results from the same rockets.
Phillipines –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has warned China not to cross a red line in the South China Sea, where a standoff between the countries continues to escalate.
If any Filipino died as a result of China’s wilful actions, he said on Friday, the Philippines would consider it as close to “an act of war” and respond accordingly.
Mr Marcos was speaking at a security forum in Singapore attended by defence chiefs from around the world, including the US’s Lloyd Austin.
Observers fear that any escalation could spark a conflict in the South China Sea between the Chinese and Americans. The US is bound by a treaty signed with the Philippines to come to the South East Asian nation’s defence, should it come under attack.
The US has said it will stand by its commitments to its allies in the region, and has sought to draw them closer including holding a summit with the Philippines and Japan last month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7223knz3ezo
OBSERVATION - China’s aggression in this region may start a shooting war before China has a chance to fully move on Taiwan.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
“The leaders of China and India have warned Putin against crossing the line with nuclear weapons, U.S. officials said, and that has factored into the recent calculus of the Americans”, - NYT
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 missiles and 46 Shahed drones overnight. Areas targeted appear to be the Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Kirovohrad regions.
The US laid some strict terms for use of munitions against Russia proper. ATACMS not allowed to strike Russian territory. Other systems Ok’d The Ukrainian Armed Forces appear to have likely launched their first attack on the Belgorod Region using at least 8 Rockets from a M142 HIMARS to the South of Vovchansk.
Very little word on ground action overnight. Indicates little change from previous activity.
Outlook —
Russia has tried to restart it deep campaign against Ukraine in the face of a now more weapons free status for Ukraine counterstrikes. These counter strikes are still very limited, but significant in that it allows Ukraine to hit key troop build ups, logistics centers and command posts once off limits.
Ukraine has also been systematically hammering Russian air defense assets in Crimea, recently taking out a 100 million dollar early warning system. This suggests that Ukraine may be looking to use F-16s against Russians in Crimea and are clearing the way for them in a manner similar to how they took the Black Sea Fleet out of the formula. One key feature remains and that is the Kersch Strait bridge. Permanently take that structure out and Crimea loses a lot of logistical support. Russia has been utilizing other supply routes/methods to minimize the use of the bridge, hence Ukraine’s recent targeting of port facilities and equipment in the vicinity of the straits. Ukraine will still have a very tough fight to even get to Crimea, thru the massive mine fields and fortifications. Their final objectives are yet to be seen.
More weapons free operations also means Ukraine has the ability to utilize long range ADA, such as Patriot systems - to target Russian bombers throwing glide bombs toward Kharkiv and other eastern regions. Ukraine has done this in the past, but with the arms shortages, pulled those assets back to defend more critical areas of the country.
Key item to watch for is Russian response to deeper, accurate and deadly attack by Ukraine into its rear areas in Russian territories. Russia has repeatedly raise the threat of nukes as well as directly attacking France, Britain and other NATO nations. Current assessment is that Russia will not carry out those threats.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg firmly rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warnings about the escalation risks if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons for strikes inside Russian territory. Stoltenberg’s comments came during a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Prague.
“This is nothing new. It has been the case for a long time that every time NATO allies provide support to Ukraine, President Putin tries to threaten us to stop,” Stoltenberg stated. “Russia has escalated by invading another country.”
Stoltenberg emphasized Ukraine’s right to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, particularly near the frontline. “Ukraine has the right to self-defense, and we have the right to help Ukraine uphold that right,” he asserted. “This does not make NATO allies a party to the conflict.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden puts forth a peace plan.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The leaders of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint meeting of Congress, House Speaker Mike Johnson announced on Friday, though the date of the speech has not been set.
***
Biden announced a new ceasefire proposal to keep Hamas in power and vowed the American taxpayer will pay to rebuild the Gaza Strip.
***
In response to biden’s so called ‘plan’ -
UK Secretary of State David Cameron called on Hamas to accept the deal so “we can see a stop in the fighting, the hostages released and returned to their families and a flood of humanitarian aid into Gaza.”
“As we’ve long argued, a stop in the fighting can be turned into a permanent peace if we are all prepared to take the right steps. Let’s seize this moment and bring this conflict to an end,” Cameron added in a statement on X.
The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also reacted to the proposed deal on X, calling the three step approach “balanced and realistic.”
“I wholeheartedly agree with POTUS Biden that the latest proposal is a significant opportunity to move towards an end to war and civilian suffering in Gaza,” von der Leyen said.
She added, “It now needs support from all parties.”
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-804552#google_vignette
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF is conduction troop rotations in various parts of Gaza.
Action remains fierce in the Rafah areas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
3 missiles launched from Lebanon fell near the town of Ma’yan Baruch in the Upper Galilee
Hezbollah fired a Burkan rocket at Israel on Saturday, which impacted and caused significant destruction to military buildings and infrastructure in the North, Israeli media reported. A Burkan rocket carries hundreds of kilograms of explosive material and a combat warhead capable of operating at a radius of 1.5-5 kilometers, Walla noted.
The IDF announced on Saturday morning that the Israeli air force conducted targeted strikes on Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Qana, Hmaileh, and Aadloun in southern Lebanon overnight. A Hezbollah observation post and two military structures were also struck in the areas of Tayr Harfa, Jibba, and Khaim.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis claim they hit the USS Eisenhower with a combined missile strike. That claim was denied by US officials.
However, the attempt may have been serious enough to generate a counter strike by coalition forces-
Early on Friday Yemen’s Houthis announced what appears to be the biggest mass casualty attack by the Western coalition since Red Sea hostilities began in the wake of Oct.7.
The joint British-U.S. airstrikes happened Thursday, and killed at least 16 people and wounded 35 others, according to Houthis statement. “We confirm this brutal aggression against Yemen as punishment for its position in support of Gaza, in support of Israel to continue its crimes of genocide against the wounded, besieged and steadfast Gaza Strip,” Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said.
The strikes primarily focused on the port city of Hodeida. Pentagon confirmed that US F/A-18 fighter jets were involved in the operation over Yemen, having taken off from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier in the Red Sea.
Officials said additional warships also participated, which included attacks on “underground facilities, missile launchers, command and control sites, a Houthi vessel and other facilities.”
The UK Defense Ministry also revealed its involvement, with a statement saying Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4s conducted strikes on Hodeida and locations south in Ghulayfiqah.
UK’s military said it targeted “buildings identified as housing drone ground control facilities and providing storage for very long-range drones, as well as surface-to-air weapons.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
France has banned Israeli defense companies from participating in Eurosatory, one of the world’s largest arms shows, over Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza.— Politico
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rafah continues to be the operational focus for the IDF. Anti-tunnel operations along the Philadelphia corridor will likely accelerate.
Recent operations have uncovered more Hamas militarization of UN facilities, schools and hospitals.
I expect Hamas to be attempting to exfiltrate as many forces out of Rafah north in to the rest of Gaza as possible to avoid destruction in detail. Israel has set up surveillance over central and northern Gaza to detect the reassembling of these forces, enabling quick strike actions to take them out.
Some assessments indicate that Hamas is running short of rockets and other weapons/munitions. I’m not convinced because Israel has only been able to destroy a portion of the underground storage Hamas has created and evidence that some Hamas elements are using undiscovered tunnels to ambush IDF elements.
It is expected the Gaza operations will continue for several more months, if not until the end of the year to locate and destroy the underground network.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Hundreds of officials from dozens of countries have put the leader of the World Health Organization on notice that if he persists in violating WHO rules to adopt a controversial global pandemic agreement or amend the International Health Regulations (IHR), it will render those provisions “null and void.”
Delegates remain huddled in Geneva as the clock ticks away the remaining moments of the 77th annual World Health Assembly, where some had hoped to finalize the pandemic agreement and pass amendments to the IHR, which would allow a global governance institution to guide some of the most sensitive areas of sovereign nations’ health care policy.
As of this writing, 216 elected officials from 34 nations have signed a letter instructing WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus that any effort to adopt the proposed WHO Pandemic Agreement or IHR amendments this week would “violate the principles of good governance,” break organizational rules, and usher in an era of “tyranny and oppression.”
The most recent draft of the pandemic agreement would compel Americans to turn over 20% of their supplies to WHO for “equity”-based global redistribution, follow WHO policies on “routine immunization” and “social measures” such as lockdowns, and accept a “One Health” policy that equates human life with plants and other life forms. The uncertainty of multiple provisions makes the treaty “a blank check” to “unaccountable committees,” say the elected officials, including eight Republican Members of Congress.
“It is generally seen that the pandemic agreement is going to be kicked down the road months or several years,” said Travis Weber, vice president for Policy and Government Affairs a Family Research Council, on “Washington Watch” Wednesday.
Even if WHA delegates overcome their contentious disputes over financial commitments and intellectual property rights belonging to Western pharmaceutical companies, the letter signers argue the WHO must wait for months to move forward. “Proceeding with the adoption of new amendments to the IHR or the proposed pandemic treaty” at the WHA “would be contrary to law,” the officials observe. “Should you proceed, any resulting agreement will immediately be null and void.”
“Using potential pandemics as a pretext to violate the principles of good governance erodes trust and undermines international cooperation when it is most needed,” they add. “Without the rule of law, tyranny and oppression prevail.”
The latest text of the WHO Pandemic Agreement contains at least three open-ended provisions members which must sign, sight unseen:
- The WHO Pandemic Agreement states that implementation of its One Health philosophy will be codified in a new treaty or agreement to be presented on May 31, 2026 (Article 5:4).
- It establishes a Global Supply Chain and Logistics Network, something akin to a global central planning agency overseeing the production and redistribution of vaccines and emergency equipment. But WHO will not define its rules and procedures until the “first meeting” of the Conference of the Parties, a group of unelected officials from all member nations.
- It also sets up a “Coordinating Financial Mechanism” to fund the WHO’s ambitions, but WHO will not consider its regulations until one year after the treaty has taken effect (Article 20:4).
“This essentially forces [m]ember [s]tates to sign a blank check,” write the people’s representatives.
OBSERVATION - What was once thought to be a shoe in has fallen apart. Interesting that the points listed above ignore the more significant weasel wording that would grant the WHO the powers to include a wide range of other issues as a world health emergency such as global warming or gun violence. The next significant date is May 31, 2026, giving the globalists two more years to get their goals met.
That is until they can hatch another plandemic to force the original ‘treaty’ language forward.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Support for the now “convicted” Trump remains high and supporters are more animated.
WARNING - There are trolls out there on the inter webs trying to stir up violence by the right. Take that as evidence of their desperation as the conviction has boomeranged back on them. Keep your powder dry.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas Governor Greg Abbott welcomed the first 300 National Guard soldiers as they relocated to a new forward operating base located on the Mexican border just south of Eagle Pass. Abbott toured “Forward Operating Base Eagle” on Friday alongside Adjutant General of Texas Major General Thomas Suelzer and Texas Border Czar Mike Banks. The Governor held a press conference after the tour, providing more details about the latest developments at the base camp.
OBSERVATION - Now bolstered by a USSC win saying TX can allow their anti - illegal law to be enforced, TX is positioned pretty well to continue the fight against illegals. This will force other states to bear the brunt of the tsunami - mostly now Kalifornia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs in the 80’s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 25 Shahed drones overnight.
Bilshivtsi community of Ivano-Frankivsk region as result of Russian missile strikes.
Russia pressed attacks all along the line from Ocheretyne southward to Vuhledar.
Ukraine hit Bolgrod region with more Himars overnight.
Reports of fierce fighting around the recently captured town of Vovchansk as an apparent Ukraine counter offensive pushes back Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
Kharkiv Front -
Russia launched a surprise counteroffensive in Kharkiv earlier this month and many military sources within the Russian army had boasted that they had captured the pivotal town of Vovchansk. However, Ukraine’s Defence Forces have now confirmed that Kyiv has regained control of 70 percent of the town, amid fierce ongoing street battles.
Several Russian channels are reporting that the Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in the Kharkiv direction. Besides that, they state that their own offensive has come to a standstill.
Outlook —
Russia continuing its dogged offensives in Eastern Ukraine. Reports of very limited territory gains.
The Kharkiv fight is interesting in that independent Ukraine and Russian on the ground milblogger indicating the Russian may well have lost the initiative. Also, the main logistical support for Russian forces come from the Bolgrod region -currently the big target for HIMARs strikes. Further reports of Russian logistical convoys being hammered as they enter Ukraine from drone / artillery strikes.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Ultranationalist ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich tell Netanyahu they will leave the coalition and topple the government if the Israeli proposal for the hostage deal presented by President Biden goes through.
NOTE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has slapped down Joe Biden’s plan for ending the war in Gaza, dismissing it as a “non-starter.”
***
Hamas escalated its psychological warfare campaign this week by releasing an audio recording, apparently of Israeli woman Noa Argamani – an Israeli student taken hostage on Oct. 7.
***
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in Rafah has exposed the existence of a secret overpass between Egypt and Gaza, which Hamas could use to import anything without international supervision, according to the Jerusalem Post.
Lt. Col. Amit Yagor (Res.), a former intelligence officer, wrote:
[Egypt] enables an entire industry of smuggling tunnels from its territory to the territory of the Gaza Strip and, in practice, constitutes the organization’s “oxygen pipe” and a main source of illegal weapons, ammunition, and prohibited materials that enabled the establishment of “Deep Gaza.”
The highlight was the existence of an overpass between Egypt and Gaza – the Salah al-Din crossing that was used for the movement of goods from Egypt to the Gaza Strip without any Israeli or international supervision. It was not widely publicized and operated in addition to the famous Rafah crossing.
Apparently, the economy of the tunnels/goods/crossings and the industry that developed on Egyptian soil contributed quite a bit to the quiet that Egypt asked to preserve in the Sinai Peninsula, and hence the Egyptian interest in not eliminating it, as Egypt knew how to do in many other cases.
Egypt had opposed an Israeli operation in Rafah, as had the Biden administration. It is clear now that Egypt wanted to cover up its role in Hamas’s smuggling and importing of weapons. The Biden administration may also have wanted to preserve the image of Egypt as a U.S. ally.
OBSERVATION - This should not surprise anyone. Corruption in arab nations is part and parcel to the everyday life. In the case of Egypt, as long as Hamas and the other radical islamic terror groups minded their own business - and kept it in Gaza - and not spread it into Egypt they were content to turn a blind eye to this operation. Not to say that there were likely considerable sums of money payed to key Egyptian authorities too boot.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued Rafah operations as IDF moves further to the eastern half of the town.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF continues to hit targets in S Lebanon.
The Israeli army confirms that Hezbollah shot down an Israeli drone in southern Lebanon
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis claim to have launched a second attack on the USS Eisenhower. They also claimed to have targeted an American destroyer in the Red Sea, hitting it directly with several drones. There is no evidence of any success.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Search and destroy operations continue in Rafah as well as other areas of Gaza.
Much of the current ‘war’ is political and the latest spat that biden has created isn’t going away soon. Early announcement by biden stated that Israel had accepted his three part plan to end the conflict. A claim that Netanyahu quickly put down. biden’s plan gives Hamas everything it wants - and Israel gets nothing except the Qatar promise that Hamas will behave itself in the future.
I don’t see much change in the tempo of the Gaza operations. IDF continues to isolate and eliminate Hamas and affiliated terrorists, locate and destroy tunnels and bunkers and continue searching for hostages.
Mexico -
Mexicans are going to the polls on Sunday in an election which is almost certain to see the country’s first female president elected.
Both the front runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, and her main rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, are far ahead in the polls of the only male candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez.
Voters will also elect all members of Mexico’s Congress and governors in eight states, as well as the head of Mexico City’s government.
The campaign has been overshadowed by violent attacks, which have resulted in more than 20 local candidates being killed across Mexico.
Ms Sheinbaum, a 61-year-old scientist who served as mayor of Mexico City from 2018 to 2023, has the backing of the outgoing president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp4475gwny1o
OBSERVATION - If this happens, expect little change in the support given to illegals passing thru Mexico and shuttled to the US. Sheinbaum appears to be an even softer liberal than the current president Obrador. Particularly softer on ‘crime’ with no clearly stated plan to deal with the drug cartels that are the defacto rulers of large areas of Mexico.
Misc of Note –
Well, I’ve noted tornado, hurricane seasons, Solar storms and now it is fast becoming time to look at another plannable disaster - fire season.
“Evacuations were ordered in San Joaquin County due to the rapidly spreading Corral Fire, which has burned 11 047 acres (4 470 ha) southwest of Tracy, California as of June 1, 2024.
The Corral Fire has consumed 4 470 ha (11 047 acres) after igniting on June 1 near Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300, southwest of Tracy (population 97 328), according to Cal Fire. “
With a wet winter - especially in kalifornia - the risk of wildfires grows almost exponentially thru out summer into fall as the rains stop and summer heat dries out the abundant undergrowth there from the winter rains. But it is a threat throughout the west, now kalifornia alone.
If you are in a wildfire prone / potential area you need to get your act together now by planning and preparing. Get important papers together, pack bug out bags, ready pets and livestock. Perhaps most importantly is to enhance your communications stance and verify potential evacuation routes.
Early warning is critical and never wait until the govt calls for an evacuation - get out early. Have comms / news sources that help identify where the fire front is in respect to evacuation routes to choose the safest and quickest way out. The Paradise CA fire of over a decade ago not only caught residents unexpected, but created a death trap on the road leading out of the town, killing numerous caught in the traffic jam.
Included in this is some sort of two way radio for backup. Cell comms may quickly fail and in remote areas, very poor service at that. GMRS has exploded into popularity with FCC licensing only requiring a fee, opening up dozens of channels with high wattage capability. Stand by Ham radios and CBs also fill the gap.
Finally, do a smart thing and pre-coordinate with family / friends if you are planning to show up there if you have to evacuate. That will make things go a lot smoother than showing up at their door in the middle of the night.
Why is this important? Evacuees really should NOT go to a Red Cross center for shelter. You will lose a lot of your rights just to be allowed in and you aren’t even guaranteed food. Too many disasters in the past show the RC centers to be cruel in their rules. Seek shelter if necessary with any other group - particularly church related (though some churches have set up agreements with the RC for use of their facilities - again stay away). This is why pre-coordinating with family and friends is important.
Never forget to plan in pets. Too many times people just leave the door open for the pets to fend for themselves. If that is your plan, re-home your pets now,