Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The World Health Organization (WHO) has watered down some provisions of its pandemic agreements ahead of the upcoming World Health Assembly on May 27. Critics in the United States, however, say the changes don’t do enough to address the concerns over the policy.
The release of the latest draft of the amendments, dated April 17, are the first public update on the IHR draft, which was initially made public early 2023.
“In most areas, and for all of those which most concerned us from a legal perspective, the interim draft reflects a major retreat by the WHO Working Group from the text of the original proposals,” write English solicitors Ben and Molly Kingsley in an April briefing paper regarding the new amendments.
Some WHO-watchers remain wary, however.
“Practically all the bad things are still there,” Dr. Meryl Nass, a U.S.-based physician and vocal critic of the WHO agreements, told The Epoch Times.
“The language is gentler, but since there is so much to be decided later it is not clear the gentler language is meaningful,” Dr. Nass said.
“My best guess is that they are desperate to get something passed, so the options are likely to be either a vanilla version of the treaty … or a delay. But they fear delay because people are waking up.”
OBSERVATION - The pandemic ‘treaty’ is hitting pushback in what once was thought to be a cakewalk. I share a similar opinion as the article - the WHO is now desperate to get this thing passed in order to get the camel’s nose under the tent so to speak, with warm, fuzzy language that can be modified at a later date without the intense scrutiny the treaty is receiving today. Many of the “concessions” could also be quickly reversed in the face of another plandemic.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
A volunteer for the Trump campaign headquarters in Limestone County, Alabama was brutally attacked Saturday afternoon while she was leaving the premises.
The Alabama Republican Party identified the victim as Tara Johnson.
AL.com reports Johnson was in her vehicle when the attacker “grabbed her by the hair, repeatedly punched her in the face and slammed her head against the door of her truck.”
OBSERVATION - Though still under investigation, such attacks are commonly encouraged by leftist, Antifa related sources across the inter webs. I expect that more assaults like this will become more common as November approaches.
Economy-
Housing numbers are coming in and they are not looking good. The combination of high prices and equally high mortgage rates have driven buyers out of the market. Evidence that the mean home price has dropped to $400K, lowest since 2021, interest rates now pushing past the 7% mark.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
More continued rumbling about the avian flu being the next great pandemic. They are telegraphing their next move folks.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The Biden campaign has a new explanation for its current position in the 2024 election: The polls are fake.
That doesn’t mean every poll is correct, but there’s no way to know which ones are in the meantime. Polling aggregates have become popular for a reason, and while the Biden campaign wants to call the Times survey an outlier, Trump is still up in the overall aggregate as well, which would portend an electoral blowout given the dynamics of the electoral college.
OBSERVATION - biden camp is taking these polls seriously, suggesting that the fundamentals behind them match what they are seeing and don’t want the public to be informed about them. As I’ve noted before, many of these polls are designed to shape public perception and thought.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden administration is under fire after reportedly withholding intelligence on the locations of senior Hamas officials to pressure Israel into giving up its planned invasion of Rafah.
Illegal Immigration –
The northern border of the US continues to see record numbers of captured illegals. For example, from April 28 to May 4, one week, Border Patrol agents apprehended 492 illegal aliens. That was more than the total apprehensions for all of 2021. In 2021, the total number for the entire fiscal year was 365.
Chief Patrol Agent Garcia said that during the week before that, Champlain Border Patrol agents apprehended 220 illegals. It was “the highest number ever encountered in a single week in Swanton Sector history.”
OBSERVATION - Illegal apprehensions have been buried by other news items lately. Still at record levels across both border regions. With improving weather conditions, I expect that the northern border will get even more action in the coming months.
China –
Military analysts are suggesting that Chinas increasing presence in the seas around Taiwan have a specific goal to lull the Taiwanese military into a false sense of normalcy so that when China decides to implement a blockade of the Island, they can do so quickly and with a minimum of initial response from Taiwan. The blockade theory is rising as the most likely course of action that China will take against Taiwan, posing the least risk to the mainland and preserving forces from an allied assault.
Phillipines –
China is deploying many ships to blockade Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) ahead of a Philippine civilian resupply mission on Tuesday that sends supplies to fishermen operating in the area, which is inside the Philippine exclusive economic zone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
RUMINT –
Reports coming out that Kharkiv authorities pocketed much of $200 million that was designated to construct defensives towards the border regions.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 18 Shahed drones overnight over western Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that another Su-25 was shot down in the Donetsk region. This is the 3rd claimed downing of a Russian fighter jet in recent weeks.
Over all, reported combat events have doubled over averages from last month.
Russian forces continue to consolidate gains in Kharkiv provence, where it is estimated that Russian has committed 30,000 troops to the assault.
The Head of the Sumy Region of northeastern Ukraine has ordered an immediate evacuation for the towns of Vorozhba and Bilopillya near the border with the Kursk Region of Russia, due to a significant increase over the last 24 hours in cross-border shelling and the possibility of Russian ground forces soon entering the region.
New reports that Ukraine was aware of the build up of forces opposite of Kharkiv within Russia over the past months, but were prohibited from striking these troop concentrations with western munitions by the US and others. This created ‘sanctuary’ areas that facilitated the current Russian attacks.
This morning, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian ammunition dump outside of Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast. Loud secondary explosions could be heard throughout the area.
Ukrainian Su-24M/Mr type aircraft launched 6 Storm Shadow type winged missiles from their nearest deployment zone, 267 km away, targeting the Russian air defense’s 3rd Radiotechnical Regiment at the Ai-Petri Mountain in occupied Crimea.
According to reports, this strike resulted in significant damage to the base and also killed the commander of the Russian military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov.
Outlook —
Things are looking bleaker in the Kharkiv region. Russian have taken a pretty large chunk of land. Now if the information is correct, Ukraine could face another assault in the NE corner of the country toward the city of Sumy. Both Sumy and Kharkiv were likely undermanned with forces shifted to the south. Russia may well be able to maintain the captured territory in part since they now have considerably more troops in theater than when the invasion first began.
If the stories of corruption in the Kharkiv region are correct, things are even worse.
Russian losses are correspondingly high but then the Ukraine losses are high as well. Are Kharkiv and Sumy at risk of falling - no, but the territorial losses place Ukraine at a disadvantage and my cause western allies to loosen up restriction on attacking Russia proper with the munitions supplied. Already Britain has given the go for its munitions.
Europe / NATO General –
The Estonian government is “seriously” discussing the potential deployment of Estonian troops in non-combat roles in Ukraine, said Madis Roll, the national security advisor to the president, in an interview with Breaking Defense published on May 13.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Today is Israel’s 76th Independence Day.
- Tank heavy units penetrate into the central portions of Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
UN admits Gaza death toll wrong, with almost 50% fewer women, children killed than previously reported. Blames ‘fog of war’ for the incorrect count - ignoring that they were fed these numbers by Hamas.
***
Hamas’ armed wing Al Qassam Brigades said on Monday it had lost contact with militants guarding four Israeli hostages, including U.S.-Israeli citizen Hersh Golberg-Poline, reportedly due to Israeli bombardment of Gaza over the past 10 days.
***
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s administration did not view the killings of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel in its war with Hamas as a genocide.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel launches a renewed offensive into Eastern Rafah.
Israeli tanks have entered the neighborhoods of Al-Jneina, Al-Salam and Al-Brazil.
A few rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Ashkelon
IDF engaged in fighting pockets of Hamas in the Gaza city area.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery hit Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Numerous Israeli security force operations throughout the West Bank overnight
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt is considering to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Israel over Rafah operation, Egyptian officials told WSJ
——— FORECAST ————————-
Rafah operation will continue to intensify in spite of US meddling.
IDF operations against reformed Hamas elements in N and Central Gaza to continue as well.
Conflict along the border with Lebanon looks to continue at current levels. No evidence that Hezbollah is coming to the aid of Hamas.
Democrats have a way of ignoring their own thuggery. Guess having the press in their pocket helps with that ...
Your observation about China is right on... being able to blockade Taiwan would be a bigger threat to the world than an invasion. It would hit all of us where it hurts most: in our almost insatiable need for high end chips...
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) During a meeting of the Department of Justice (DOJ) Election Threats Task Force, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said threats to election integrity are being “supercharged” by artificial intelligence (AI), which provides new avenues to “misinform and threaten” voters through deep fakes.
Monaco is likely setting the stage for prosecutions of AI-generated content on social media that the DOJ deems “misinformation or disinformation threat.” Renewed Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and FBI coordination serves two purposes for “election integrity”: federal agencies can coordinate social media censorship with platforms, and platforms can facilitate the prosecution of Americans who post AI-generated content the DOJ deems “misinforms or threatens” voters
OBSERVATION - “Misinformation” continues to be the buzz word of the swamp in its efforts to quench opposing views. However, the breakout of AI into society has created the potential - and in some cases already has - to corrupt the info sphere with near perfect fakes of all kinds. However, DoJ looks to it as an excuse to continue the ham handed censorship activities we’ve seen since 2020 (and to some degree earlier).
Economy-
The producer price index reading for April came in above estimates, putting a damper on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later this year as inflation weakens. The PPI gained 0.5% from April, higher than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation data this year has been disappointing and will require patience from the central bank on monetary policy.
“We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” he told a bankers’ group in Amsterdam. “So what that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”
OBSERVATION - Wall Street has been looking forward to a rate decrease for the better part of a year now. That hopium is about run out now. This also will have significant impacts to biden’s economic policy arm waving as the election nears. Many thought that the Fed would drop rates just before the election to produce a burst of positive economic numbers to help him.
***
(FO) A group of House and Senate Democrats led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) urged President Biden to “take robust action” through Executive Actions to lower food prices. The lawmakers said Biden could use Executive Actions to fight anticompetitive practices including slotting fees, and investigate price gouging throughout the U.S. food supply chain.
OBSERVATION - Communism and controlled economy is what they want. Obviously they didn’t learn anything from Nixon’s disastrous wage and price controls. They are also looking for a scape goat with the elections and citizens putting most of the blame on democrats for the high cost of living.
***
It is being reported that the average auto loan rate on a new car has just hit *9.86%* APR. A 20+ year high.
***
Home prices have surged 47.1% since the start of 2020, easily outstripping the gains seen in recent decades.
That’s according to a recent analysis by ResiClub of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which showed that house prices in the 1990s and 2010s grew a respective 30.1% and 44.7%.
On top of that, home price growth so far this decade is on the verge of surpassing all the growth seen in the 2000s. During that time period, housing prices skyrocketed 47.3%, including an 80% spike before the 2007 housing market crash.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-have-surged-47-since-start-2020
OBSERVATION - I’ve said it time and again - the housing market is a key indicator of the health of our economy. These numbers suggest the potential for another housing market crash on top of sky high interest rates. This may sound good - crashing lowering costs - but it would remove houses from the market as owners would be underwater on their loans and would hold on to them rather than sell and move to another house. 2007 all over again - on steroids.
***
The administration is increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% by the end of this year, doubling tariffs on semiconductor chips imported from China to 50% by 2025, more than triple levies against Chinese EV batteries to 25% by next year and doubling tariffs on solar cells imported from China to 50% by the end of this year, according to the White House. Other products targeted include medical equipment like syringes and needles, and certain container cranes.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/14/biden-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-critical-minerals/
OBSERVATION - Despite efforts to decouple, the US is still very reliant on China for most of these items. This will result in inflation as costs get transferred to consumers until other sources are developed - though those other sources will likely be high priced as well due to new demand.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
The left is desperately trying to spin Cohen’ testimony into some sort of ‘win’ for the prosecution. The majority see the prosecution case evolving into an even greater dumpster fire.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The WH is scrambling to walk back its claims of offering Israel with super secret intel on the locations of Hamas leadership, stating that the US has no such intelligence to begin with.
OBSERVATION - Pretty clear that this was an overt effort to stop Israel from going forward with the Rafah operation and that the WH has been clearly caught with its pants down on this one.
***
biden continues to make the false claim that inflation was at 9% when he took office.
Illegal Immigration –
Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., said Tuesday that border crossings in the Tucson area have drastically increased over the past few years.
“When I met with Chief Maudlin who’s the sector chief in Tucson last Wednesday, he said ... they’re on pace to have more than 700,000 encounters through the Tucson sector alone in this fiscal year,” Biggs said on the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show.
“Just put that in perspective from 2018 to 2021, the average [was] about 60,000 per year,” he added.
More than 189,000 migrants arrived at the southern border just in the month of February.
OBSERVATION - The tsunami of illegals continues, though reporting has largely been suppressed and pushed to the background due to the Gaza and Ukraine wars along with other political news (usually spin against Trump trials).
China –
Largest Chinese violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024.
45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles
OBSERVATION - I’m working to give this area more attention. Over the past few months, China has become more aggressive in its actions and claims in the S China Sea and towards Taiwan. With the increasing political chaos in the US and eyes directed towards the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I am concerned that China may take even more aggressive actions to achieve its desired regional goals.
In addition to aircraft incursions, Chinese naval incursions and deployments around the island - likely for the purpose of setting up a potential blockade are concerning too.
Russia -
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Krivoruchko have resigned, backdated their resignation letters to before May 9th, despite signing the letters on May 13th.
Their subordinate Lt Gen Kuznetsov’s house was raided and he was taken out of his bed by force at around 5:30am on May 14.
Kuznetsov is accused of crimes directly linked to Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Ivanov. Ivanov has already been under arrest.
OBSERVATION - These are serious actions by putin in reshaping his regime. Having ‘won’ a fifth term, he is doing the classical communist purge of potentially unfaithful military leaders. The impact this kremlin shakeup will have on the military is not certain at this time, but will likely continue forward on shear mass of momentum for the near term.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has maintained its full court press on Ukraine via not only its new assaults towards Kharkiv, but all along the eastern front of Ukraine.
In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are solidifying defensive positions. Local Ukrainian commanders are reportedly taking the initiative in the vacuum of poor decisions by leaders at the national level. Russia forces reportedly utilizing the “meat attack” tactic in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.
Advances in the Ochertyne and Chasiv Yar areas have slowed way down, almost to a halt.
Ukraine has basically stopped trying to intercept Russian S-300 missile strikes on cities like Kharkiv, Dniper and Odesa. Russian has so many of these outdated systems that Ukraine has had to make the choice to used existing ADA assets against more serious threats.
Ukraine hit a major Russian airbase in Crimea overnight. Multiple strikes reported at the Belbek Air Base in Crimea by Ukraine using 300km ATACMS Missiles overnight. Reported result so far:
1x Mig-31 destroyed
3x Su-27 damaged
2x S-300/S-400 air defense systems destroyed
11x Russian soldiers killed
OSINT folks waiting for the next commercial satellite run for further analysis.
Outlook —
Situation is still tense for Ukraine on the Kharhiv front as Russian troops continue to pour into the captured area. Some good news is that Russian advances further south are slowing to potentially stalling as Ukraine defenses stiffen up there as well.
A lot of commentary about allowing Ukraine to use ATACAMS to strike Russian assembly area in Russia along the border. The US has so far been reluctant to allow Ukraine to directly attack Russian territory with these systems. This is one area where the US should allow a weapons ‘free’ situation, creating a situation that could really alter a lot of Russian rear area operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UN accused of collaboration with Hamas in use of facilities and even marked vehicles in Gaza.
- IDF continues to press forward throughout all Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas has been planning to establish a secret base in Turkey as well as other terror cells elsewhere in order to coordinate attacks against Israeli targets in neighboring countries, including members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) according to a document captured by the IDF in Gaza, The Times revealed in an exclusive report.
The secret document, titled “Founding a base in Turkey,’’ was discovered in the chief of staff to Yahya Sinwar, Hamza Abu Shanab’s home, The Times reported, citing the IDF. The document says Israel’s efforts to clamp down on the Gaza Strip over the past decade has “put Hamas on the defensive.”
Erdogan insists that Hamas has not been carrying out terrorist operations from Turkey despite meetings with Hamas leaders and allowing the Palestinian group to maintain offices in Istanbul
The Turkish government has expressed support for Hamas, calling it a “liberation group,” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has reached a level that would make Hitler jealous with his genocidal methods.”
***
Israel said its troops had identified fighters in the central logistics compound of the U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA east of Rafah, demanding an explanation. Reuters verified the location of the footage released by the Israeli army but could not verify when it was filmed or the identity of the men.
“The U.N. has in part become a terrorist entity in itself because it cooperates with Hamas and covers for it,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan told Army Radio.
UNRWA has denied allegations of cooperating with Hamas.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-hamas/2024/05/15/id/1164778/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A Hamas Command Facility which was located inside of a school operated by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Nuseirat, central Gaza, was bombed overnight by the IAF resulting in the death of 15 terror operatives including 10 members of Hamas’s Elite Naval Commando Unit “Nukhba” who participated in the October 7th massacre.
Hamas managed to launch a handful of rockets towards Sderot, handled by Iron Dome.
Continuing clashes between Israeli army and Hamas in the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip.
Artillery and air strikes continue to be intense in Central Gaza.
IDF continues to develop and execute search and destroy operation in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Senior Hezbollah commander Hussein Mechi was killed in a targeted drone strike in Tyre, Lebanon.
***
Between 40 to 50 explosions were heard in the area of Mount Meron, cause of explosions is not reported.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF continues to successfully use its tactics to lure Hamas into what are essentially kill zones. More evidence of the UN collaboration with Hamas by allowing it to use its vehicles and facilities is coming out - not good for the daily drum of Hamas propaganda the UN spews on a daily basis.
The Rafah operation continues to grow, with quick Israeli deep penetrations into the town. The international voices decrying the operation appear to be falling off now that Israel has shown the resolve to execute the operation no matter what.
The status of an remaining hostages is still questionable. If Hamas no longer views them as supporting their cause it is highly likely that they’ll kill them directly, or lock them into locations that Israel may hit. I don’t hold out much hope for any other hostages to be freed alive.
Israel continues to successfully hunt down key Hezbollah leaders, nailing another one overnight. The cumulative effect of such leadership loss has to be hitting a painful level for Hezbollah. It should also cast a lot of fear in the other leaders, as this is but another in a recent string of hits on the individuals while driving on the road. This means Israel has some really good HUMINT going on providing timely and actionable targeting intel. This same intel probably has also marked the rocket launching and storage facilities throughout southern Lebanon for quick strikes as necessary.
Loss of key leadership may also be the reason for Hezbollah relatively minimal responses against Israel of late. It takes a while to reestablish chains of command and for new leaders to get a grasp of the ongoing war situation. Many, if not most of the leaders hit have been in their positions for years and years. How much ‘junior’ leadership training has been used to prepare others to take charge is not certain.
Misc of Note –
Multiple wildfires burning in British Columbia and Manitoba have forced thousands of people to evacuate and spread hazardous smoke into the northern United States, prompting air quality alerts.
OBSERVATION - Yes, fire season has already begun and for those Freepers who live in what many call urban-woodland interface areas should get a head of the power curve and review their preparations for wild fire responses. Check your potential evacuation routes for passability. Repack your GO bags, important papers, your communications plans and rally points. If you have livestock (horses, etc), make sure you have them covered as well.
Fires can give you essentially zero warning and lack of preparedness will kill - take for example the losses from the Paradise fire in Kalifornia a number of years ago. Enhance your ability to get early warning of fire activity and by all means - get out of dodge early rather than at the last minute.