Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Reports indicate Slovakia, a member of the European Union, will reject the World Health Organization’s pandemic treaty.
“Peter Kotlár, the Slovak Government Plenipotentiary for the COVID-19 pandemic, informed that Slovakia would not support the current version of the new pandemic treaty or the draft amendment to the International Health Regulations,” Radio Slovakia International reports.
The Health Ministry noted that it would not support any documents weakening Slovakia’s position as a sovereign state. Kotlár also had a meeting with WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus who stated that he respected the decision of the Slovak Republic, but also encouraged the search for possible ways to reach an agreement.
https://100percentfedup.com/another-european-country-reject-who-pandemic-treaty/
OBSERVATION - Another bump in the WHO’s quest for world domination. What was once seen as a slam dunk, Britain and now Slovakia may represent a breach of the so called ‘consensus’ now that the rubber is about to meet the road the end of this month.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Minor pro-hamas protests overnight, nothing major is reportedly planned for today.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
RCPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are now showing Biden losing to Trump by the largest margin in every single battle ground state as of 5/8/24
Joe Biden’s approval has also dropped to the lowest yet for his time in office, beating his previous of 37.9 in July 2022, and the lowest in history for any US President in office on this day of their term
OBSERVATION - These are composite of multiple polls and as with all polls caution is urged in their results. However, because these are a composite, they do indicated seriously negative trends for biden. Especially in the face that trump was able to gather 80,000-100,000 supporters in dark blue NJ yesterday for the largest political gathering in the states history.
China –
Xi has re arranged the strategic levels of the military again. Partially to gain greater control over purity of support to his regime as well as to better quantify logistical growth and support to the different branches.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Logistics –
Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has lost nearly 700 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. About half the losses have been the more expensive fixed wing fighter-bombers and specialized surveillance and electronic warfare aircraft. So far that is about ten percent of the official number of Russian military aircraft, counting all the ones nominally available including those out of service in storage. The worst aspect of this is that Russia is only able to replace five percent of these losses because the companies that build aircraft are too few to produce what is needed and were believed unable to increase production because of international economic sanctions.
Meanwhile the air force continues to lose aircraft and helicopters. Since early 2022, the Russians have lost about nearly 400 fighters, fighter-bombers, and attack aircraft. Most of the fighter losses were the modern Su-30/34/35 aircraft. The attack aircraft losses consisted of Su-24s and Su-25s. A similar number of helicopters have been lost.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202405120439.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Hatysche, Krasne, Morokhovets and Oliiynykove villages of Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Russian Group north attacked with 5 battalions with some OSINT observers suggesting that they lost at least 20% on the first day.
Russians have destroyed the Staryi Saltiv Dam in the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian Defense forces countering Russian offensive attempts at the North-west and north of Liptsy, Kharkiv region - spokesperson.
Heavy fighting at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne, with limited gains by Russia. Increased Russian attacks on other sectors of the eastern front as well.
Ukrainian Army just shot down a Russian Su-25 close air support jet over Eastern Ukraine
On the night of May 11, GUR drones attacked the “Lukoil” oil refinery, - source of UP in GUR. Drones have also attacked refinery in Volgograd, causing a fire
Outlook —
The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has pushed several kilometers into Ukraine. Much of the territory lost was sparsely defended with the main defensive lines 10-15 km from the border. In spite of the relatively low initial Ukraine resistance, Russian forces are said to have sustained significant losses and their supply trains seriously impacted. Ukraine is starting to counter attack to halt the advance. As stated before, the likely goal of the Russian effort is to freeze Ukrainian assets in place and prevent them from redeployment to the main push at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne.
Increasing presence of Ukrainian MANPADS is taking bigger bites out of Russian CAS, taking out another Su-25. This will eventually force Russia to rely upon lobbing bombs into target zones and less responsively support to ground troops.
Ukraine continues to hammer Russian oil refineries and associated facilities. Russia has been slow to respond with its deep warfare, possibly indicating growing shortages of missiles.
Russia expected to maintain the initiative in eastern Ukraine, however, it appears that operations are significantly slowing in part due to the initial arrival of US designated munitions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell.
- IDF expanding operations in Rafah.
- IDF conducting raids in central and northern Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
On Friday, the Biden administration announced that the U.S. will continue transferring military arms to Israel for its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. This decision follows a U.S. report which affirmed that Israel’s assurances of compliance with international law were “credible and reliable.”
***
Hamas have released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell. It is the first sign of life from 51-year-old Nadav, who was abducted from Kibbutz Nirim on October 7. The video shows Nadav with a black eye reading a short script before the video cuts to a large question mark about his fate.
***
The Biden administration has offered Israel both intelligence and supplies, if Israel will agree to end its ground invasion of Rafah, the Washington Post reported. The intelligence would help Israel locate both Hamas’ leaders and hidden tunnels, four people familiar with the offer told the Post.
***
Contrary to prior speculation, October 7th terrorist mastermind, Yahya Sinwar is not hiding in Rafah, but according to intelligence reports, is most likely in tunnels under Khan Younis, an area the IDF left about a month ago, Israeli officials told The New York Times.
Although the IDF has succeeded in eliminating Hamas’s number 3 leader, Marwan Issa, along with a several senior commanders, Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, chief of Hamas’s military wing, still remain at large.
https://worldisraelnews.com/sinwar-is-not-in-rafah-israeli-officials-report/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Following attempts by Hamas to reassemble its terrorist infrastructure and operatives in Jabaliya, the IDF has called on the civilian population of Jabaliya and the surrounding areas to temporarily evacuate to shelters in western Gaza City. IDF launching raid missions to destroy assembled Hamas forces.
Israel Defense Forces on Saturday called on additional neighborhoods of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip to evacuate ahead of an expected widening in its ongoing military operations over the past few days.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli Army reports that during the past week, they bombed more than 120 Hezbollah targets and killed more than 10 militants in Lebanon.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
UN General Assembly adopted a resolution, recommending Security Council reconsider the matter of Palestine’s membership favorably; changing modalities for its participation in meetings
RESULT:
IN FAVOR: 143
AGAINST: 9
ABSTAIN: 25
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel restated that it will conduct its Rafah operation with or without US help. Leaflets calling for more evacuations were distributed overnight, indicating an escalation of the operation.
In other parts of Gaza, IDF is preparing to reenter areas to clean out Hamas elements that are attempting to reform in those areas. This tactic has so far been effective in continuing the depletion of Hamas fighters while minimizing the IDF forces in Gaza. Essentially, IDF luring them into traps and then taking them out in a larger scale than hunting down smaller individual/squad sized elements.
The US continues to do what it can to thwart the Israeli operation in Rafah, this time promising super secret information on the locations of key Hamas leaders. As a former intel officer, I just shake my head at this claim. Israel has highly trained and experienced intel folks right there - on the ground - and likely has far greater knowledge of who’s where than the biden regime. US assets would be largely limited to national level systems for IMINT and COMINT, lacking sorely in HUMINT. All three are not near what Israel has at hand for the operation.
Operations against Hezbollah continue as in the past. I currently do not see Hezbollah ramping up any major actions to support Hamas at this juncture.
I expect Israel to continue to expand its operations in Rafah and other parts of Gaza.
Misc of Note –
Everyone is still talking about Friday nights Severe Geomagnetic Storm. Initially Space weather put out a G4 alert, only to raise it to a G5.
The last G5 storm to hit Earth this strong was in October 2003, which sparked power outages across Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa. Since then, the economy’s digitalization has dramatically increased, which means there’s an increasing risk of grid failures and disruptions in communication networks.
This time around, some effects were noted on some power grids, but no serious affects otherwise. Satellites so far seem to have weathered the storm, particularly the massive network of Space X systems.
There is a strong possibility of another G4/5 storm again tonight as multiple CMEs are expected to hit at about the same time - anchored by a X5.8 blast yesterday.
My viewing here in the Redoubt was spectacular. If it goes G5 tonight, well worth trying to view. Check spaceweather.com for updates.
Thanks for your work, Godzilla.
What would happen to us if we spit on a Hamas supporter/protester? Would the full power of the law be used against us like they're trying to against Trump?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Professor Bill McGuire is a well-known vulcanologist and climate scientist who doesn’t care much for humanity. He tweeted out a scathingly brilliant idea if you’re in the mortuary business or work as a grave digger.
“If I am brutally honest, the only realistic way I see emissions falling as fast as they need to, to avoid catastrophic #climate breakdown, is the culling of the human population by a pandemic with a very high fatality rate.” https://t.co/hzga69EhV3
— Bill McGuire (@ProfBillMcGuire) May 11, 2024
OBSERVATION - He later deleted the tweet saying that too many people were taking it the wrong way. Pretty sad mea culpa. This depopulation theme is well documented among the WEF types and goals. The infamous (now extinct) Georgia Guidestones called for reducing the global population to 500 million. Hence the recurring belief that the wuhan mRNA jab was an initial tool to begin the process.
Perhaps he should just shut up and study volcanos.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Andy NGO reports on “X”- Online far-left accounts are sharing a virtual flyer calling for May 15 to be a day to riot for Gaza.
“It’s time to escalate,” the flyer reads. The extremists want the riots to be politically destabilizing to the U.S.
OBSERVATION - Now that school is out for the summer, Antifa et al has lost a lot of mind-numbed students for their campus protests. This call out for more violent “protests” appears to be an effort to ramp up and retain the initiative the college protests provided. I expect local events at this stage, more violent in the Antifa heartlands, and less so in the soft liberal areas. Monitoring to seen if things change between now and then.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
Economy-
CPI numbers are expected to be out Wednesday May 15. Reporters are noting that the govt is playing with the numbers. in this case, they are removing coffee from the index. What you may not have realized is there was significant increase in coffee prices from March - May, 2024. Since September 2023, coffee prices are up a 78%.
From January 1st of this year through the high in April when this change was announced, coffee prices gained 35%.
***
(Bloomberg) — Roughly one in 37 homes are now considered seriously underwater in the US and that share is much higher across a swath of southern states, according to data out Thursday.
Nationally, 2.7% of homes carried loan balances at least 25% more than their market value in the first few months of the year. That’s up from 2.6% in the previous quarter, according to the first-quarter 2024 US Home Equity & Underwater Report from ATTOM, a real estate data firm.
OBSERVATION - Saw this happen back in 2008 with my home at the time, though not near the 25% level. Totally upended the housing market for a couple of years. Not a good sign.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
There are reports surfacing that the DNC is considering moving a lot of the convention on-line to avoid protests/rioting from the ascending, pro-Hamas flank of the party. This could be done in part by minimizing live programming and openings for protest in Chicago’s United Center. This would mean moving party business, such as rules and platform votes, off the floor and denying would-be demonstrators a chance to seize on contentious debates.
OBSERVATION - Both conventions are in dark blue cities, so the fuel for riots is already at hand. I Chicago’s case, not only is the wrath of pro-hamas elements on the rise, but the standard black community is highly agitated due to the preferential treatment illegals are getting. Black community leaders have warned of protests for several month now.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden still trying to find ways to walk back his decision to block congressionally approved arms shipments to Israel in the face of intense pushback from rank and file democrats who are in general pro-Israeli.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been fired. Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister, and a longtime economist, replaces him.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The General Staff of Ukraine reporting on the status of the fighting in the Kharkiv region - Combat operations continue in the directions Pylna - Lukyantsi, Pylna - Hlyboke, Pylna - Oliynikove, Murom - Buhruvatka. Russian troops carrying out assaults in the directions of Strilecha - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Lukyantsi, Murom - Staritsa, Pletenivka - Tyche. - Fighting continues for the border town of Vovchansk.
The evacuation of people in the Kharkiv region has been going on for more than two days, - the Regional Emergency Service. Currently, more than 4,500 residents have been evacuated from the border settlements of Bogodukhiv, Chuhuiv and Kharkiv districts
Ukrainian Sources are reporting that overnight several additional brigade-sized elements of the Russian ground forces, consisting of thousands of troops as well as hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, crossed the northeastern Ukraine border utilizing the multiple bridgeheads that had already been established over the last 48-72 hours.
Outlook —
The new offensive in Kharkiv province is not going well for Ukraine at the moment. However, much of the Russian land grab consists of lightly screened border areas. As noted before, one of the key reasons for the attack is to freeze Ukraine forces the region and prevent movement to the current main offensive further to the south.
However, analysts have noted other potential reasons for this attack. The Siverskyi Donets River is the most prominent geographical feature in the immediate area and poses as a major obstacle that divides Kharkiv from land to the east that stretches to Kupyansk and Dvorichna
If this Russian offensive is for real and this is not a feign to draw off already stretched Ukrainian forces, the area stretching from the Siverskyi Donets to the Oskil River could be what Russia is after.
Another goal may be to get within the 25 km radius of Kharkiv. At this distance, conventional artillery can range the town. To date, Kharkiv has been hammered by missiles, drones and glide bombs. Getting within tube artillery range will add significantly to the attack.
Much of the recent Russian gains have been lateral - joining the two assaults together. Ukraine defenses have stiffened with counter attacks seeking to slow the advance.
Current assessments by analysts indicate that the current Russian forces being employed are insufficient to take Kharkiv, but the Russian push there still strategically significant as a means to achieve other goals in Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense fighting in N Gaza
- Rafah campaign continues to increase in intensity.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The Israel Defense Force has announced that a Joint-Operation with Shin Bet last Friday resulted in the Elimination of Naim Gol, one of the Member of Hamas’s Shari Battalion who was Responsible for the Guarding of Corporal Noa Marciano, a Soldier in the IDF who was Kidnapped by Hamas during the October 7th Massacre and then Killed at some point by Doctors at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense Israeli airstrikes on northern Gaza as IDF presses attacks against Hamas elements trying to reconstitute there.
Mujahideen Brigades - We are engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces with appropriate weapons east of Jabalia camp, north of the Gaza Strip.
Israeli Armed forces are sending new reinforcements in an attempt to penetrate into the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip
IDF continues to expand operations in Rafah. Large airstrikes hitting targets at the center of the town.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Army Radio reports 3 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Branit in the Western Galilee.
Hezbollah says it launched an attack with a swarm of drones on a military site in northern Israel. Two explosive-laden drones launched from Lebanon struck an area near the northern community of Beit Hillel earlier this morning, the military says. The Israeli army says the blasts sparked a fire which was extinguished a short while later.There are no injuries.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
CENTCOM intercepted Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
IDF operations in the Jabalia Camp, N Gaza to continue to ramp up as they have managed to trap a sizable Hamas force. Israeli tactics, once again, is to pull out and give Hamas et al an opportunity to crawl out of their holes and try to reform. IDF surveillance catches all of this then strikes back quickly at the now exposed Hamas elements. IDF has used this tactic several times with good success.
Rafah ops continue to expand in spite of biden’s demands for it to stop. Netanyahu called biden’s bluff on this one. It looks like deliveries will resume with the tag of not to use against Rafah. I think Israel is “Ok” with that as they have sufficient for Rafah anyway and need to stock up for the Hezbollah campaign.
Action by Hezbollah and the “Islamic Resistance” is not expected to be significant in the near future.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed on Friday that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, despite the country’s formal policy under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This statement came shortly after the UN’s atomic watchdog highlighted Iran’s capacity to produce multiple nuclear bombs, Fox News reported.
OBSERVATION - More likely rhetoric than reality at this stage.