No post for tomorrow (Sunday). I have family commitments that will prevent me from spending the hours researching and producing this report.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Congressional Republicans are calling on President Joe Biden to abandon plans for a pandemic treaty that would strengthen the World Health Organization, citing that global body’s numerous failures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., backed by about half of all Senate Republicans, signed a letter to Biden urging him to withdraw from two agreements with the World Health Organization that would boost its authority to declare public health emergencies and give it new powers over the U.S. and 193 other member states during such emergencies.
The letter to the president from Senate Republicans also asks that he submit any such pandemic agreement with WHO—criticized for going easy on China during COVID-19—to the Senate for ratification.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6836#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - the regime is looking to let this slip into reality under the cover of so much other chaos that is going on today. Refresher - This change will allow the WHO to declare a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” even over the objections of member nations. The definition of the term “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” is big enough to sail ten aircraft carriers, side by side, through. Covers everything from global warming, guns and ‘health misinformation’ etc. This makes the WHO a massive, globalist grab for power.
Some states are acting in advance, declaring that they will not permit any decree from the WHO (or even the WEF) to be enforced.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Less than 24 hours after being kicked off the lawn at Columbia University, the pro-Hamas protesters are back to their campsite on the campus.
Well, to be accurate, across the lawn. The original campsite is now covered with construction supplies, presumably to keep the students from doing exactly what they are doing now.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/04/19/theyre-baaaack-n3786847#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - While this version of a sit in is largely ‘peaceful’, Antifa et al are looking to groom them as the useful idiot for potentially more violent actions later this summer.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of APR 20, 2024
Action between Israel and Iran appear to be deescalating at the moment.
Economy-
The commercial real estate market is starting to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates and remote work.
There were 625 commercial real estate foreclosures in March, up 6% from February and 117% from the same time last year, according to a new report published by real estate data provider ATTOM.
OBSERVATION - The ‘work from home’ move due to wuhan has been accelerated by the massive growth in city crime and economic doldrums. Poster child is San Francisco, who’s business section sits largely empty.
***
Oil and gold prices have eased after Iranian authorities appeared to downplay reports of an attack from Israel.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell after jumping briefly to over $90 a barrel after reports emerged of an attack.
Gold briefly came close to a record high before settling below $2,400 an ounce.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2vwl91qe6do
***
Armitage Winery is just one of 67 percent of California businesses surveyed that report they are unhappy doing business in the Golden State. Of that 67 percent, 30 percent indicate that are currently considering a move, 27 percent say they want to move but can’t afford it, and 10 percent are actively planning a move.
The recent survey, conducted by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, included 80,000 small-business owners nationwide. Overall, the survey found that a mere 13 percent of small-business owners in California are actually happy with their location—nearly 40 percent lower than the national average.
High taxes were listed as the number-one reason why California businesses want to relocate, with 86.4 percent responding that taxes are just cutting too much into their profits. Almost 85 percent named anti-business government policies as another major reason to leave. On the national level, that compares to 64.5 percent of employers listing high taxes and 59.4 percent, anti-business government as their biggest complaints
OBSERVATION - Conditions in kalifornia have significantly worsened - not only for residents, but businesses too. The “Great Migration” that hit prior to and during wuhan was dampened by prices and mortgage rates. Now things have gotten to the point where its move or die. Another aspect is the skyrocketing crime rates that have closed many businesses that were unable to move.
Continued marxist policies will only make matters worse.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Air Force is putting AI in the pilot’s seat. In an update on Thursday, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) revealed that an AI-controlled jet successfully faced a human pilot during an in-air dogfight test carried out last year.
Human pilots were on board the X-62A with controls to disable the AI system, but DARPA says the pilots didn’t need to use the safety switch “at any point.” The X-62A went against an F-16 controlled solely by a human pilot, where both aircraft demonstrated “high-aspect nose-to-nose engagements” and got as close as 2,000 feet at 1,200 miles per hour. DARPA doesn’t say which aircraft won the dogfight, however.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/04/us-air-force-confirms-first-successful-ai-dogfight/
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Warnings of the spread of bird flu, dengue and monkey pox are flitting around the inter webs and CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
More pressure to oust Jordan from the speakership is growing with the movement of massive military aid bills as well as the capitulation to the deep state for not forcing warrants be obtained for FISA purposes.
Any movement could potentially backfire and the House suddenly get a democrat speaker as there are enough RINO representatives that would do such a thing out of spite.
More polls coming out showing increasing support for Trump. Cautious handling required as they may be trying to shape the political battlefield - mainly by progressive democrats seeking a stronger candidate than biden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden continues to spin tales about his family. Uncle being eaten by cannibals.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
On Tuesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray repeated his warnings from January (when he stated that China’s hackers are “wreaking havoc” on American infrastructure), remarking that the CCP is “the defining threat of our generation.”
He continued, “China’s hacking program is larger than that of every other major nation combined. If each one of the FBI’s cyber agents and intelligence analysts focused exclusively on the China threat, China’s hackers would still outnumber FBI cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1.”
The ongoing hacking campaign, known already as Volt Typhoon, has gained access to American telecommunications, energy, water, and other companies, including pipeline operators.
Wray charged China is assembling the “ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing. … it plans to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic.”
A recent report from The Heritage Foundation catalogs how CCP has hackers infiltrated “key sectors including communications, energy, and water,” and “may have the ability to access heating and air conditioning systems to overheat data servers, to cause blackouts by disrupting control rooms that regulate water and electricity, and to manipulate surveillance cameras at some of these facilities.”
OBSERVATION - Continuation of the Volt Typhoon warnings. If initiated, there would be short term impacts that would damage remote operations of a variety of systems, but those should be correctable thru manual operations. By and large as stated, the goals of such a massive cyber attack will be to “try to induce panic” among the population. In hour heavy, internet dependent society, just losing access can cause individuals to melt down, lacking basic skills to be able to gather important information from other sources or even critically evaluate what the heck is happening.
I know it sounds like I kind of poo-poo this threat. No, it has potential to cause real chaos in a short term (measured in a few weeks) scenario. The bigger concern is that it will be part of a much larger unconventional assault on the US should China make its move on Taiwan. This assault may well include more lethal actions from the tens of thousands of Chinese males that have illegally entered the country over the past year.
Illegal Immigration –
Customers packed Cory Gautereaux’s small gun store northeast of San Diego on a recent Friday afternoon.
Many of the people buying pistols at Firearms Unlimited California said they were concerned about the massive number of migrants being released onto the local streets after the area became a hub for the crisis at the border — which is just 25 miles from El Cajon, a Southern California suburb of 105,000 people.
https://nypost.com/2024/04/15/us-news/californians-arming-themselves-over-border-issue/
OBSERVATION - With TX successfully stopping the vast majority of the illegal crossings, illegals have migrated to less defended sectors and Kalifornia is a big open border. This brings with it a surge in crime.
IN RELATED - A jury has failed to convict an AZ rancher of murder for defending his family and property from the threats from illegals.
North/South Korea –
North Korea reportedly has conducted a test on a “super-large warhead” designed for a strategic cruise missile, state media reports, adding that it also launched a new type of anti-aircraft missile.
“The DPRK Missile Administration has conducted a power test of a super-large warhead designed for ‘Hwasal-1 Ra-3’ strategic cruise missile”, KCNA news agency reported on Saturday, referring to North Korea by an abbreviation for its official name – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Cruise missiles are among a growing collection of North Korean weapons designed to overwhelm regional missile defences. They supplement the North’s vast arsenal of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental variants, which are said to be aimed at the continental United States.
OBSERVATION - NK has come a long way from many years ago when every test they did blew up on the launch pad. Now with Russia essentially testing current short range ballistic missile systems for NK in Ukraine, NK is gaining more knowledge.
The big question still remains - has NK been able to stealthily create a nuclear warhead that can be carried by these systems?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
RUMINT –
Ukraine could get their hands on promised F-16 fighters as early as this June.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On my off day, Ukraine took down 15 of 16 X-101, X-69, X-59, and Iskander-K Missiles fired were shot down. 9 of them in Dnipro Oblast. Missiles came from Russian strategic bombers as well as a couple of Russian missile cruisers in the Black Sea that dared to venture out of port.
For the first time during the war Ukraine reported shooting down a Kh-22 missile, likely in Odesa, possibly by a Patriot Air Defense System around the City. It was also the first time an X-69 cruise missiles was reported to have been shot down by Ukraine
Unfortunately, a Russian missile hit a Residential Apartment Building in Dnipro killing and injuring many civilians, including children
One Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire (this is their supersonic bomber) was claimed to have been shot down by Ukraine using a modified S-200 Missile. Kyiv claims that the swing-wing bomber was brought down nearly 200 miles from the Ukrainian border. This bomber likely participated in the earlier missile attack. Stock S-200 systems are almost antique but have a designated range of 200 miles. Ukraine has been modifying them to increase range as well as a potential surface to surface role.
Overnight, explosions from an unspecified source (likely Russian ballistic missile) were reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro city.
Russian ministry of Defense claims 50 drones were shot down over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow regions. Lukoil oil depot was hit by drones in Kardymovo village of Smolensk region.
Russian forces continue their pressure of Chasiv Yar on the Bakhmut front.
Outlook —
Surges in deep warfare will continue as Ukraine continues to hit Russia oil facilities and Russia tries to further exploit Ukraine’s weakened air defenses.
Russia continues the efforts to capture Chasiv Yar, but it seems recent Ukrainian reinforcements are helping to stabilize the line. Russian artillery superiority in the absence of Ukraine’s artillery ammo deprived defense is furthering their efforts.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- Assessments of Israel’s missile strike on Iran continue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas sees no ground for negotiation with Israel in this moment, Palestinian source told Al-Mayadeen
***
IDF Spokesman: At this time, there is no change in the directives of the Home Front Command. If there are any changes in the future, the public will be informed. -News12
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF continued airstrikes on identified concentrations of Hamas forces throughout the strip.
IDF moving forward to try to evacuate as many as 1 million from Rafah prior to initiating ground operations the root out the last major group of Hamas forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs, rockets and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A wrap-up of key aspects of the Israeli strike against Iran.
Israel targeted a S-300PMU2 Surface-to-Air Missile Battery and radar site near the Natanz Nuclear Facility in the Isfahan Province of Iran; a 30N6E “Flap Lid” engagement radar and possibly a 96L6E “Cheese Board” acquisition radar appear to have both suffered significant damage. This air defense site provides ‘protection’ for the nearby Natanz Nuclear Facility.
Israel utilized air launched ballistic missiles referred as “Blue Birds”. The Israeli arsenal has three variants and based on recovery of the booster and appears to have used the intermediate version. The missiles were launched over Iraq with no Israeli jets penetrating into Iran.
Iran was caught completely by surprise, apparently taking the bait put out that any attack would occur after Passover. Israel alerted the WH as the last minute (probably when missiles were underway) of the strike.
Amongst the reporting were unconfirmed strikes on other targets. Most were bogus, but one - an Israeli strike on a Syrian air defense radar site in S. Syria was confirmed as well.
There were no losses of any Israeli missiles or aircraft.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make sweeps throughout the West bank and arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Largely inactive over the course of the past several weeks.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
US blocked recognition of “Palestine” as a separate state in the UN
——— FORECAST ————————-
It does look like Iran is stepping back and licking its wounds following two embarrassing episodes - first the massive waste of drones and missiles against Israel, then Israel’s uncontested, though small scale, counter strike.
Basically the world sees that Iran can’t effective hit Israel, nor can it defend from an Israeli strike.
Israel had promised a massive counter strike. The size and scope of that plan may well have been scaled back in order to maintain the fragile coalition of nations that rose to help Israel defend against the Iranian attack. In addition to the US/UK / French fighters, an unprecedented move of support came from Jordan and Saudi Arabian fighters joining in. By all appearances of Iran’s response to the Israeli strike and the apparent quiet approval of global powers, Israel did send a massive message. “We could have taken out the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and still can and you can do nothing about it”. Doubly, Natanz is deep in the interior of Iran, a factor that Iran thought would further deter Israel.
With this episode over, attention now turns back on operations against Rafah and later Hezbollah. Hamas over played its hand in thinking that the Iranian attack would turn the corner in its defense - wrong. Israel’s limited strike has given it a public relations boost, sucking the oxygen out of international bleating over how out of control it is. How quickly they can get the non-combatants moved is not certain, but it can be done quickly, as demonstrated in its initial operations in N Gaza.
AFA Hezbollah goes, Israel will continue to take the opportunities to take out key Hezbollah and even IRGC leadership - to weaken the command structure, in addition to hitting key command, logistics and rocket storage and launching sites. The neutering of the Iranian missile threat for the moment has probably given Hezbollah nightmares. The still possess a very nasty rocket potential that could cause severe damage and loss of life in Israel, but that’s about it. Hezbollah ground assaults have been checked by the sudden Israeli forces build up - now being reinforced by additional call ups of reserver forces.
In the near term, Israel will continue the successful tactics of raiding Hamas forces in Gaza by a combination of air, artillery or rapid ground ops. Efforts to remove civilians from Rafah will hit overdrive. Hezbollah and Iran may deescalate matters for a while until Israel takes out some more biggies. They cannot step back for long because that would be a sign of weakness to the rest of the middle east.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Iran working hard to diminish the effect that the Israeli missile strike had. All indicators suggest that in the near term, Iran is backing down from a more aggressive counterstrike and keep putting forth reasons not to hit back. No indicators of a counter strike being prepared.
RUMINT - Russia to transfer 24 Su-35 fighter jets to Iran next week - Iranian media
OBSERVATION - Part of the technology transfer agreement between Iran and Russia in exchange for production of Shahed drones for the Ukraine war. Questionable timing given the recent losses by Russia of this make of fighter and the urgent demands of the war. Could well be a disinformation ploy to scare off Israeli jets.
Iraq -
One killed and six wounded in an airstrike on a military base used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad on Friday, according to Iraqi sources.
There were no drones or fighter jets detected in the air space of the Babylon area before or during the blast, the military confirmed in a statement.
According to reports, during the attack, two separate waves of strikes were conducted. Two PMF sources claimed that the strikes did not lead to casualties but caused material damage.
OBSERVATION - Technically, the PMF is officially a branch of the Iraqi army. It has essentially been taken over by Iranian-supported elements and operates as an anti-US / anti-Israel force.
There is a great deal of confusing reporting on the exact cause for the initial explosion - which then generated massive secondary explosions that took out the base. Leading culprit is an IAF air strike, though there are reports of no jet or even drone traffic in the region. Alternatively could be an act of carelessness, saboage or even a strike by ISIS, who’s been more aggressive lately.
Misc of Note –
The biden administration is waging against Grand Canyon University, the largest of its kind in the US over dubious claims that it falsely told pHD candidates its costs were lower than actually charged. U.S. Department of Education Secretary Miguel Cardona reportedly vowed to shutter the Christian college located in Phoenix, Arizona.
OBSERVATION - This poorly fits into the standard categories typical of this report. It reflects the overall hostility of the biden regime towards Christianity in general. It also reflect similar hostility that comes from globalist powers. Classical marxist assault on a country is to destroy any Christian foundations for living. Hence, we see in addition to this the massive LGBT attacks, DEI/CRT efforts, debanking efforts, etc. These are bricks being laid down for a totalitarian govt in the future.
Did you notice how many of the Columbia 'protesters' had matching tents? And that there was a 'drummer' present? The same two 'tells' were present in many of the 'BLM' protest and with many of the illegal's gatherings. Why? Because the same group is behind these seemingly different 'protests'. Oh and the drummer? Also a part of the protest of Supreme Court Justices during Trump's years.
The intensity of the crap hitting the fan seems to be intensifying this week. Things are coming unraveled faster than I can keep up with at times.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing new limits on how much nitrogen, phosphate and other pollutants meat processing facilities can discharge into surface waters.
The EPA said the proposed rule change will “improve water quality and protect human health and the environment.”
Tracey Barton, Kansas Natural Resource Coalition’s executive director, said:
“The proposed EPA rule will require costly upgrades for meat processing facilities. The anticipated cost is $300,000-$400,000 for the initial upgrade with annual maintenance fees of $100,000.
“In Kansas, many small meat processors are unable to sustain these costs and will be forced to close their doors. For the facilities that are able to sustain the increase in capital, the costs will be passed onto farmers/ranchers as well as consumers, driving meat prices, which are at an all-time high, even higher.”
OBSERVATION - Remember back to the wuhan plandemic eras. The whole meat supply chain was smashed severely because of the bifurcated processes - some meat plants sold only to restaurants and the like, others to commercial outlets like grocery stores. In the turmoil, an effort was started to create smaller, more local meat processing capabilities to better ensure supplies in the event of another cluster like wuhan. Now the EPA is moving to crush that effort - most likely with globalist backing to damage the agricultural segment of our economy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(Jerusalem Post) “Several national anti-Israel groups have threatened to “seize” universities across the United States to force them to adopt Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions policies on Saturday, raising the specter that encampments and protests like those seen at Columbia University could be replicated across the continent.
The supposed power of our administrators is nothing compared to the strength of the united students, staff, and faculty committed to realizing justice and upholding Palestinian liberation on campus,” National Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) wrote on social media.
“In the footsteps of our comrades at Rutgers-New Brunswick SJP, Tufts SJP, and Columbia SJP, we will seize our universities and force the administration to divest for the people of Gaza! Join the Popular University, take back our institutions!”
RELATED - Police clad with riot gear started swarming Yale University’s Connecticut campus early Monday where hundreds of students have been staging an anti-Israel protest.
Footage posted online showed cops arriving at the Ivy League school and blocking off entrances to a plaza at the New Haven campus where roughly 200 protesters were gathered.
OBSERVATION - This campus protest rage exploded this weekend. Current epicenters are Ivy League schools with supporters drawn from the silver spoon children of rich, leftist parents.
These protests are forming a hybrid group - anti-Israel, LGBT and your generic anarchists and a smacking of anti-white racists. They have gained a foot hold in these schools due to University presidents lacking the will power to take charge.
Besides a lot of chanting, these groups have posed a serious physical threat to Jewish students and Jewish leaders have called for the schools to protect them. Other have encouraged the students to leave for their own safety. On both counts the protestors have declared victory.
Funding seems to be abundant. Many have noted that the initial Colombia protest all the tents were the same type/manufacture. Unspoken is the logistics necessary - food and water for instance, along with the standard protest banners, etc. One donor site that has been identified is the ActBlue - the democrat fund laundering organization This creates some interesting contrasts - democrats funding protests/riots against leftist based colleges and universities. This is not unprecedented, look back to Portland and how Antifa et al has completely stomped the liberals in charge of the city. So far, biting the hand that feeds them is working.
Other support seems to be developing from elements that supported the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. It becomes concerning that they may be shaping these useful idiots into a riot/ protest force going into the elections. In fact, one of the speakers at Colombia openly stated that this was training for later this summer.
The recent history has shown that this conglomeration has focused more on democrats / biden than they have republicans. Principally on the basis of ongoing ‘support’ to Israel. As the party conventions hit and the likelihood of continued growth in Trump’s approval over that of biden, the puppet masters may well shift the focus towards republicans.
As for now, these student ‘protestors’ have a local initiative and if school administrators don’t act soon, it will encourage this movement to quickly spread to non-Ivy league schools. The movement has some deep pocket financial support that may keep it rolling as well.
Violence and threats are the current significant concerns - particularly directed towards Jews. As noted above, should this movement morph into a broader anarchist program a la 2020, the violence potential will rise.
Economy-
The Biden administration’s latest plan to wipe out federal student loan debt for millions of borrowers could add up to $750 billion to the national deficit, according to a Tuesday report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
So far, the White House has announced $150 billion in so-called student loan “forgiveness” programs over the last year following the Supreme Court’s June decision to reject unilateral loan cancellations. The previously rejected program would have wiped out $430 billion in borrower debt.
Since then, the Biden administration has ignored the court’s ruling and enacted numerous similar but smaller programs to zero out federal student loan debt. Many of the cancellation announcements were rolled out through the White House’s newest income-driven repayment program, Saving on a Valuable Education Plan, which sets monthly repayment amounts based on borrowers’ incomes. According to the administration, roughly 8 million Americans are currently enrolled in SAVE. Over half of enrollees have a monthly payment of $0, and more than one million others pay less than $100 per month.
OBSERVATION - With the federal deficit projecting to grow at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 or so days, the national debt is already sounding warnings that it cannot sustain such growth without imploding the country. Yet biden, and both parties in congress, seem very willing to expand the debt at even higher rates.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States was forced to stop its military operations in March 2024 in Niger – a landlocked, western African country in the Sahara desert. Niger may not immediately seem like a key ally for the U.S., but it served as a crucial staging ground for the U.S. military to carry out work and respond to terrorism in the region.
U.S. representatives are currently trying to negotiate a deal to maintain some sort of military presence in Niger. But, for now, Niger’s new ruling junta has declared that the U.S. military presence is a violation of Niger’s constitution. The fate of the U.S.‘ presence, including two military drone bases, remains uncertain.
OBSERVATION - Another foreign policy disaster for biden. He basically left them hostage to the new Nigerian govt and stuck there with no way out. Further, we are being replaced by Russians, seeking to influence the region for Russia and away from the west.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Warnings of the spread of bird flu, dengue and monkey pox are flitting around the inter webs and CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Insanity in congress - doing everything but securing our borders and holding the regime accountable.
Illegal Immigration –
See “Economy” above for related out of control spending
The Biden regime’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is allocating $300 million to ‘sanctuary‘ cities offering support such as shelter and food to illegal aliens. In light of a surge in border crossings, this funding will be channeled through the Shelter and Services Program (SSP). The SSP funds non-federal bodies such as NGOs and local governments that aid illegal aliens who are released into the United States. Of the total funding, $275 million will be dispensed initially, with the remaining $25 million set aside for later in the year.The program covers costs related to providing shelter, food, transportation, medical care, and personal hygiene to illegal aliens. Other expenses, such as the remodeling of existing facilities, clothing, translation services, outreach information, and administrative costs, are also included.
In addition to this, DHS disclosed an allocation of $340.9 million for the SSP competitive grant program. This comes after a distribution of over $780 million last year through SSP and another program to sanctuary cities and organizations providing services to illegals.
OBSERVATION - biden created the disaster, he is sustaining it through even more spending the US into bankruptcy.
***
A New York Home Depot has gone to extreme lengths to protect its customers from the state’s increased problem with lawlessness.
According to The New York Post, the store in Rochelle, New York has employed a guard dog and private security to try and solve the issue, which continues to grow worse as the Biden regime continues to allow millions of people cross into the country every year.
The Post reports:
“The guarded New Rochelle lot was quiet and no migrants loitered there when The Post visited this week, however, seven miles away in Throggs Neck, The Bronx, at least 30 male migrants hovered at the doors of Home Depot.
Some were day laborers simply trying to “shape” for work with local contractors. But many others aggressively confronted shoppers, trying to sell them phony Apple Airpods or soliciting tips for lifting items from shopping carts into cars — even when uninvited.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/new-york-home-depot-hires-guard-dogs-protect/
OBSERVATION - Illegals hanging out at Home Depot has been happing for a long time. What is changing is how they are now aggressively confronting shoppers and other potential criminal activity. Like with mass looting and other violence, these security measures will grow across the country in order to protect customers and stores.
China –
Efforts to militarily push the Philippines out of islands it controls appears to be increasing in the S China Seas. This is opposition to the UN court siding with Philippines over ownership of these islands.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile into East Sea.
***
South Korea has officially declared that the maritime buffer zone with North Korea no longer exists, setting a precondition for Seoul and Washington to conduct reconnaissance operations near the border in response to Pyongyang’s ongoing military provocations.
“North Korea has breached the September 19th military agreement over 3,000 times and has conducted artillery fire in the West Sea [Yellow Sea] over the last three days. As a result, the zone designated for the cessation of hostile actions effectively, no longer exists,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, or JCS, said Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Seoul, JCS spokesperson Lee Seong-Joon said that the ongoing provocations have essentially rendered the inter-Korean agreement inactive.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/04/seoul-declares-maritime-buffer-zone-with-north-ineffective/
OBSERVATION - SK is stating the obvious and the potential of more, potentially more dangerous, confrontations are on the horizon.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 of 7 Shahed drones. Most appear to have targeted Odesa.
Russian forces continue to make slow but steady gains on the northeastern margin of Chasiv Yar, claiming control over Bohdanivka village near Bakhmut
Outlook —
Continued Russian gains on the ground, but no evidence of any potential breakout or systematic collapse of Ukraine defenses. Russia may push harder in the next few weeks to gain as much territory before Ukraine gets rearmed by the US and Europe/NATO.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday.
Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva announced his resignation after he failed to prevent Hamas’ unprecedented Oct. 7 attack, the deadliest terror attack in Israel’s history, the military said.
“The intelligence directorate under my command did not live up to the task we were entrusted with. I carry that black day with me ever since, day after day, night after night. I will carry the horrible pain of the war with me forever,” Haliva wrote in his resignation letter, according to a translation by the Associated Press.
***
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to announce sanctions against the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda Battalion in the next few days, according to three American sources.
The sanctions are a result of [supposed] human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank.
This will be the first time that the United States government has imposed sanctions on an Israeli military unit.
The sources stated that the American sanctions will prohibit the transfer of US military aid to the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, will prevent its soldiers and officers from taking part in training with the United States military, and will prevent the soldiers from this unit from participating in activities that receive American funding.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-29/
Israeli minister Gantz spoke on the phone with the US Secretary of State Blinken and asked him to reconsider the decision to impose sanctions on the Israeli army Netzah Yehuda Battalion: “would harm Israel’s legitimacy in wartime, and it has no justification”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF continued airstrikes on identified concentrations of Hamas forces throughout the strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More fire exchanged in the border region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT - Syria’s Assad reportedly is in negotiations with the US to reduce sanctions and other actions against the country due to the civil war.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make sweeps throughout the West bank and arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
At least five rockets were launched from Iraq’s town of Zummar towards a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria on Sunday; two Iraqi security sources told Reuters.
The attack against U.S. forces is the first since early February, when Iranian-backed groups in Iraq stopped their attacks against U.S. troops.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan hosted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul and rather than urging peace or a return of the hostages, he released a statement urging Palestinians to “unite for victory” over Israel. He called on the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to unite with Hamas against the Jews, calling it “vital” for them to do so.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Currently, this is close to a ‘tactical’ pause in operations. The soap opera with Iran temporarily sidelined, Israel is getting back to the shorter term action items at hand - the Rafah operation.
I’ve noted increasing IAF airstrikes on targets in Rafah, indicating probable battle field preparations for the ground operations. Civilian relocation efforts are underway, but no clear info on numbers departed vs remaining. Israel has stated 1 million need to be relocated. Military indicators suggest that the fight in Rafah will happen soon.
Battlefield preparation against Hezbollah continues with the death by a thousand paper cuts. Hezbollah’s continued attacks have given Israel lots of justification to strike Hezbollah targets deep in the country, major command and logistics sites, that will result in an impaired response when the ground war kicks off. Such strikes will also lessen the effectiveness of any potential spoiling attack against Israel too.
I still don’t see Israel kicking off the fight in the north until operations in Rafah have wound down.
The “islamic resistance” against US forces in Syria/Iraq looks to be on the upswing after months of relatively quiet. The problem that some of these Iranian backed groups are having is dealing with a resurgent ISIS.
Central / South America General-
Large, anti-leftist / anti - govt protests have broken out in Colombia and Brazil. In Colombia, focus is on the autocratic rules/laws the left is putting out as well as high fuel prices. Brazil focuses on freedom of speech and other anti-rights laws.
OBSERVATION - Central / South America has seen over the past months national elections a large split between hard leftist govts and more conservative ones.
Black Swans -
The southern Chinese province of Guangdong faces severe flooding risks with the Bei River’s water levels predicted to peak at 37.3 m (122 feet) early on April 22, 2024. This event, deemed a ‘once-in-a-century’ occurrence, comes after the region experienced record-breaking rainfall, affecting millions of people.
Residents of Guangdong province are bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding as the Bei River, a key tributary of the Pearl River, is expected to swell to 37.3 m (122 feet) by 01:00 LT on April 22, 2024 (17:00 UTC on April 21).
OBSERVATION - I’ve been relatively cautious in any assessment that weather events like this are on the rise. I may be reaching a tipping point though. My caution has been based on concerns of information bias - that with the internet and a snot full of smart phones weather stories like this are getting higher visibility where as in the past they occurred at a similar frequency and intensity, but just didn’t receive the reporting.
But with the record setting storms of the past couple year seeming to grow, recent examples are the massive flooding across the middle east (with some significant snow storms too) and China’s ongoing one hundred year floods, combined with massive flooding across many other regions, well something may be afoot.
I remain cautiously skeptic for the moment, but data are pointing to potential changes in weather patterns. These pattern changes are not man made, but reflect historical changes documented throughout the history of the planet. One instance of which was that much of N Africa was lush with vegetation, and Greenland was once green with vegetation too before becoming ice bound.