The intensity of the crap hitting the fan seems to be intensifying this week. Things are coming unraveled faster than I can keep up with at times.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing new limits on how much nitrogen, phosphate and other pollutants meat processing facilities can discharge into surface waters.
The EPA said the proposed rule change will “improve water quality and protect human health and the environment.”
Tracey Barton, Kansas Natural Resource Coalition’s executive director, said:
“The proposed EPA rule will require costly upgrades for meat processing facilities. The anticipated cost is $300,000-$400,000 for the initial upgrade with annual maintenance fees of $100,000.
“In Kansas, many small meat processors are unable to sustain these costs and will be forced to close their doors. For the facilities that are able to sustain the increase in capital, the costs will be passed onto farmers/ranchers as well as consumers, driving meat prices, which are at an all-time high, even higher.”
OBSERVATION - Remember back to the wuhan plandemic eras. The whole meat supply chain was smashed severely because of the bifurcated processes - some meat plants sold only to restaurants and the like, others to commercial outlets like grocery stores. In the turmoil, an effort was started to create smaller, more local meat processing capabilities to better ensure supplies in the event of another cluster like wuhan. Now the EPA is moving to crush that effort - most likely with globalist backing to damage the agricultural segment of our economy.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(Jerusalem Post) “Several national anti-Israel groups have threatened to “seize” universities across the United States to force them to adopt Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions policies on Saturday, raising the specter that encampments and protests like those seen at Columbia University could be replicated across the continent.
The supposed power of our administrators is nothing compared to the strength of the united students, staff, and faculty committed to realizing justice and upholding Palestinian liberation on campus,” National Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) wrote on social media.
“In the footsteps of our comrades at Rutgers-New Brunswick SJP, Tufts SJP, and Columbia SJP, we will seize our universities and force the administration to divest for the people of Gaza! Join the Popular University, take back our institutions!”
RELATED - Police clad with riot gear started swarming Yale University’s Connecticut campus early Monday where hundreds of students have been staging an anti-Israel protest.
Footage posted online showed cops arriving at the Ivy League school and blocking off entrances to a plaza at the New Haven campus where roughly 200 protesters were gathered.
OBSERVATION - This campus protest rage exploded this weekend. Current epicenters are Ivy League schools with supporters drawn from the silver spoon children of rich, leftist parents.
These protests are forming a hybrid group - anti-Israel, LGBT and your generic anarchists and a smacking of anti-white racists. They have gained a foot hold in these schools due to University presidents lacking the will power to take charge.
Besides a lot of chanting, these groups have posed a serious physical threat to Jewish students and Jewish leaders have called for the schools to protect them. Other have encouraged the students to leave for their own safety. On both counts the protestors have declared victory.
Funding seems to be abundant. Many have noted that the initial Colombia protest all the tents were the same type/manufacture. Unspoken is the logistics necessary - food and water for instance, along with the standard protest banners, etc. One donor site that has been identified is the ActBlue - the democrat fund laundering organization This creates some interesting contrasts - democrats funding protests/riots against leftist based colleges and universities. This is not unprecedented, look back to Portland and how Antifa et al has completely stomped the liberals in charge of the city. So far, biting the hand that feeds them is working.
Other support seems to be developing from elements that supported the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. It becomes concerning that they may be shaping these useful idiots into a riot/ protest force going into the elections. In fact, one of the speakers at Colombia openly stated that this was training for later this summer.
The recent history has shown that this conglomeration has focused more on democrats / biden than they have republicans. Principally on the basis of ongoing ‘support’ to Israel. As the party conventions hit and the likelihood of continued growth in Trump’s approval over that of biden, the puppet masters may well shift the focus towards republicans.
As for now, these student ‘protestors’ have a local initiative and if school administrators don’t act soon, it will encourage this movement to quickly spread to non-Ivy league schools. The movement has some deep pocket financial support that may keep it rolling as well.
Violence and threats are the current significant concerns - particularly directed towards Jews. As noted above, should this movement morph into a broader anarchist program a la 2020, the violence potential will rise.
Economy-
The Biden administration’s latest plan to wipe out federal student loan debt for millions of borrowers could add up to $750 billion to the national deficit, according to a Tuesday report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
So far, the White House has announced $150 billion in so-called student loan “forgiveness” programs over the last year following the Supreme Court’s June decision to reject unilateral loan cancellations. The previously rejected program would have wiped out $430 billion in borrower debt.
Since then, the Biden administration has ignored the court’s ruling and enacted numerous similar but smaller programs to zero out federal student loan debt. Many of the cancellation announcements were rolled out through the White House’s newest income-driven repayment program, Saving on a Valuable Education Plan, which sets monthly repayment amounts based on borrowers’ incomes. According to the administration, roughly 8 million Americans are currently enrolled in SAVE. Over half of enrollees have a monthly payment of $0, and more than one million others pay less than $100 per month.
OBSERVATION - With the federal deficit projecting to grow at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 or so days, the national debt is already sounding warnings that it cannot sustain such growth without imploding the country. Yet biden, and both parties in congress, seem very willing to expand the debt at even higher rates.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States was forced to stop its military operations in March 2024 in Niger – a landlocked, western African country in the Sahara desert. Niger may not immediately seem like a key ally for the U.S., but it served as a crucial staging ground for the U.S. military to carry out work and respond to terrorism in the region.
U.S. representatives are currently trying to negotiate a deal to maintain some sort of military presence in Niger. But, for now, Niger’s new ruling junta has declared that the U.S. military presence is a violation of Niger’s constitution. The fate of the U.S.‘ presence, including two military drone bases, remains uncertain.
OBSERVATION - Another foreign policy disaster for biden. He basically left them hostage to the new Nigerian govt and stuck there with no way out. Further, we are being replaced by Russians, seeking to influence the region for Russia and away from the west.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Warnings of the spread of bird flu, dengue and monkey pox are flitting around the inter webs and CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Insanity in congress - doing everything but securing our borders and holding the regime accountable.
Illegal Immigration –
See “Economy” above for related out of control spending
The Biden regime’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is allocating $300 million to ‘sanctuary‘ cities offering support such as shelter and food to illegal aliens. In light of a surge in border crossings, this funding will be channeled through the Shelter and Services Program (SSP). The SSP funds non-federal bodies such as NGOs and local governments that aid illegal aliens who are released into the United States. Of the total funding, $275 million will be dispensed initially, with the remaining $25 million set aside for later in the year.The program covers costs related to providing shelter, food, transportation, medical care, and personal hygiene to illegal aliens. Other expenses, such as the remodeling of existing facilities, clothing, translation services, outreach information, and administrative costs, are also included.
In addition to this, DHS disclosed an allocation of $340.9 million for the SSP competitive grant program. This comes after a distribution of over $780 million last year through SSP and another program to sanctuary cities and organizations providing services to illegals.
OBSERVATION - biden created the disaster, he is sustaining it through even more spending the US into bankruptcy.
***
A New York Home Depot has gone to extreme lengths to protect its customers from the state’s increased problem with lawlessness.
According to The New York Post, the store in Rochelle, New York has employed a guard dog and private security to try and solve the issue, which continues to grow worse as the Biden regime continues to allow millions of people cross into the country every year.
The Post reports:
“The guarded New Rochelle lot was quiet and no migrants loitered there when The Post visited this week, however, seven miles away in Throggs Neck, The Bronx, at least 30 male migrants hovered at the doors of Home Depot.
Some were day laborers simply trying to “shape” for work with local contractors. But many others aggressively confronted shoppers, trying to sell them phony Apple Airpods or soliciting tips for lifting items from shopping carts into cars — even when uninvited.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/04/new-york-home-depot-hires-guard-dogs-protect/
OBSERVATION - Illegals hanging out at Home Depot has been happing for a long time. What is changing is how they are now aggressively confronting shoppers and other potential criminal activity. Like with mass looting and other violence, these security measures will grow across the country in order to protect customers and stores.
China –
Efforts to militarily push the Philippines out of islands it controls appears to be increasing in the S China Seas. This is opposition to the UN court siding with Philippines over ownership of these islands.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile into East Sea.
***
South Korea has officially declared that the maritime buffer zone with North Korea no longer exists, setting a precondition for Seoul and Washington to conduct reconnaissance operations near the border in response to Pyongyang’s ongoing military provocations.
“North Korea has breached the September 19th military agreement over 3,000 times and has conducted artillery fire in the West Sea [Yellow Sea] over the last three days. As a result, the zone designated for the cessation of hostile actions effectively, no longer exists,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, or JCS, said Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Seoul, JCS spokesperson Lee Seong-Joon said that the ongoing provocations have essentially rendered the inter-Korean agreement inactive.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/04/seoul-declares-maritime-buffer-zone-with-north-ineffective/
OBSERVATION - SK is stating the obvious and the potential of more, potentially more dangerous, confrontations are on the horizon.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 5 of 7 Shahed drones. Most appear to have targeted Odesa.
Russian forces continue to make slow but steady gains on the northeastern margin of Chasiv Yar, claiming control over Bohdanivka village near Bakhmut
Outlook —
Continued Russian gains on the ground, but no evidence of any potential breakout or systematic collapse of Ukraine defenses. Russia may push harder in the next few weeks to gain as much territory before Ukraine gets rearmed by the US and Europe/NATO.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The head of Israel’s military intelligence directorate has resigned, the Israel Defense Forces said on Monday.
Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva announced his resignation after he failed to prevent Hamas’ unprecedented Oct. 7 attack, the deadliest terror attack in Israel’s history, the military said.
“The intelligence directorate under my command did not live up to the task we were entrusted with. I carry that black day with me ever since, day after day, night after night. I will carry the horrible pain of the war with me forever,” Haliva wrote in his resignation letter, according to a translation by the Associated Press.
***
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to announce sanctions against the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda Battalion in the next few days, according to three American sources.
The sanctions are a result of [supposed] human rights violations against Palestinians in the West Bank.
This will be the first time that the United States government has imposed sanctions on an Israeli military unit.
The sources stated that the American sanctions will prohibit the transfer of US military aid to the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, will prevent its soldiers and officers from taking part in training with the United States military, and will prevent the soldiers from this unit from participating in activities that receive American funding.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-29/
Israeli minister Gantz spoke on the phone with the US Secretary of State Blinken and asked him to reconsider the decision to impose sanctions on the Israeli army Netzah Yehuda Battalion: “would harm Israel’s legitimacy in wartime, and it has no justification”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF continued airstrikes on identified concentrations of Hamas forces throughout the strip.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More fire exchanged in the border region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT - Syria’s Assad reportedly is in negotiations with the US to reduce sanctions and other actions against the country due to the civil war.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make sweeps throughout the West bank and arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
At least five rockets were launched from Iraq’s town of Zummar towards a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria on Sunday; two Iraqi security sources told Reuters.
The attack against U.S. forces is the first since early February, when Iranian-backed groups in Iraq stopped their attacks against U.S. troops.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Erdogan hosted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul and rather than urging peace or a return of the hostages, he released a statement urging Palestinians to “unite for victory” over Israel. He called on the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to unite with Hamas against the Jews, calling it “vital” for them to do so.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Currently, this is close to a ‘tactical’ pause in operations. The soap opera with Iran temporarily sidelined, Israel is getting back to the shorter term action items at hand - the Rafah operation.
I’ve noted increasing IAF airstrikes on targets in Rafah, indicating probable battle field preparations for the ground operations. Civilian relocation efforts are underway, but no clear info on numbers departed vs remaining. Israel has stated 1 million need to be relocated. Military indicators suggest that the fight in Rafah will happen soon.
Battlefield preparation against Hezbollah continues with the death by a thousand paper cuts. Hezbollah’s continued attacks have given Israel lots of justification to strike Hezbollah targets deep in the country, major command and logistics sites, that will result in an impaired response when the ground war kicks off. Such strikes will also lessen the effectiveness of any potential spoiling attack against Israel too.
I still don’t see Israel kicking off the fight in the north until operations in Rafah have wound down.
The “islamic resistance” against US forces in Syria/Iraq looks to be on the upswing after months of relatively quiet. The problem that some of these Iranian backed groups are having is dealing with a resurgent ISIS.
Central / South America General-
Large, anti-leftist / anti - govt protests have broken out in Colombia and Brazil. In Colombia, focus is on the autocratic rules/laws the left is putting out as well as high fuel prices. Brazil focuses on freedom of speech and other anti-rights laws.
OBSERVATION - Central / South America has seen over the past months national elections a large split between hard leftist govts and more conservative ones.
Black Swans -
The southern Chinese province of Guangdong faces severe flooding risks with the Bei River’s water levels predicted to peak at 37.3 m (122 feet) early on April 22, 2024. This event, deemed a ‘once-in-a-century’ occurrence, comes after the region experienced record-breaking rainfall, affecting millions of people.
Residents of Guangdong province are bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding as the Bei River, a key tributary of the Pearl River, is expected to swell to 37.3 m (122 feet) by 01:00 LT on April 22, 2024 (17:00 UTC on April 21).
OBSERVATION - I’ve been relatively cautious in any assessment that weather events like this are on the rise. I may be reaching a tipping point though. My caution has been based on concerns of information bias - that with the internet and a snot full of smart phones weather stories like this are getting higher visibility where as in the past they occurred at a similar frequency and intensity, but just didn’t receive the reporting.
But with the record setting storms of the past couple year seeming to grow, recent examples are the massive flooding across the middle east (with some significant snow storms too) and China’s ongoing one hundred year floods, combined with massive flooding across many other regions, well something may be afoot.
I remain cautiously skeptic for the moment, but data are pointing to potential changes in weather patterns. These pattern changes are not man made, but reflect historical changes documented throughout the history of the planet. One instance of which was that much of N Africa was lush with vegetation, and Greenland was once green with vegetation too before becoming ice bound.
Residents of Guangdong province are bracing for potentially catastrophic flooding as the Bei River, a key tributary of the Pearl River, is expected to swell to 37.3 m (122 feet) by 01:00 LT on April 22, 2024 (17:00 UTC on April 21).
https://watchers.news/2024/04/21/once-in-a-century-flood-warning-issued-for-guangdong-as-bei-river-surges-to-record-levels-china/
I think you're on to something here... My concern is global 'elites' are messing with earths natural balances self correcting systems... and might be causing the problems they say they're trying to prevent.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Elon Musk’s X is facing strong criticism from both the centre-left Labor Party and the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition in Australia amid a legal challenge against the country’s online content tsar.
Mr. Musk labelled Australia’s eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant (a former Twitter employee), the “Australian censorship commissar,” after she issued an order to X to take down videos related to the alleged stabbing of a Christian bishop.
X says it had removed all posts domestically, but the commissioner’s order calls for the removal of content around the world.
“The Australian censorship commissar is demanding *global* content bans!”
OBSERVATION - Musk and “X” are facing a slue of challenges to its free speech platform by other leftist/globalist countries. In the Aussie case, the demands for a ‘global’ ban drive the boat. Australia has been one of the proto-WEF controlled nations that have pushed globalist agenda on its citizens, now trying to leverage its “information control” demands on X and the rest of the world. This is a prototype effort that the WEF wants for the whole world - 1984 Orwellian ministries of ‘truth’ controlling citizens access to real truth.
***
Bloomberg reported Thursday that unnamed officials inside the White House said the idea of declaring a climate emergency, first considered in 2021 and again in 2022, is once again under consideration. Such a climate change “emergency” would effectively shut down much of the industry and civilian actions by edicts similar to those issued during the wuhan plandemic. Much of the rumors are also tied to this being an effort to secure the progressive left base in advance of the general election.
U.S. Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart told me in an interview. “It’s not about climate, it’s about control: Control over the entire U.S. economy, control of production, manufacturing, distribution, and consumption. If you control energy, you control all these things. Which means you have control of the people.”
A biden crackdown would inevitably create the flight of billions of dollars in capital to other parts of the world where environmental regulations are far less stringent than in the United States. That alone would cause the US economy to go into an unrecoverable economic tailspin and likely drag the rest of the world with it.
OBSERVATION - Crazy to think about this at this stage, but we are totally not out of the woods. If one operates on the premise that the regime’s actions have been deliberate and not due to ‘screwed up, underqualifed’ individuals making poor policy - you almost have to see this emergency declaration coming sooner rather than later.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Very busy day yesterday as the anti-semitic protests swarmed over numerous university/college campuses. This in the response to this call by “Students for Justice in Palestine”
Official statement:
“Universities have chosen profit and reputation over the lives of the people of Palestine and our will as students.
The supposed power of our administrators is nothing compared to the strength of the united students, staff, and faculty committed to realizing justice and upholding Palestinian liberation on campus.
In the footsteps of our comrades at Rutgers-New Brunswick SJP, Tufts SJP, and Columbia SJP, we will seize our universities and force the administration to divest, for the people of Gaza!”
The University of Pennsylvania has banned Students for Justice in Palestine from campus.
The prototype protests centered on Columbia U, which protestors ‘redisgnated’ as the “Peoples’ University”
Campuses at Yale, NYU, MIT, Emerson, UMich, UC Berkeley. and Tufts University as well as some others answered the call. Pro-Palestine protesters blocked the entrance of a building at California State Polytechnic University with couches, chairs, desks, and other items. Students reportedly chanted calls for the death of Jews and the nation of Israel.
New York police moved in late yesterday to tear down protest sites at NYU, Yale and last but not least Columbia (for the second time). Mass arrests were made, including substantial numbers of supportive facility at NYU and Colombia.
NY Police actions spurred a march by protestors through China Town with flares, reportedly headed toward NYPD headquarters. Anti-Israel, antisemitic protestors reportedly set fires in the streets of New York City on their way.
OBSERVATION - It must also be noted that yesterday was Passover, and the violent protest activity cannot be lost on that coincidence.
The deep communist roots supporting the protests is exemplified by the Colombia protestors designating the facility as a “peoples university” . So the hybrid collusion of anti-US and anti-Israelis useful idiots found common ground for these protests. The over throw of the US held a prominent spot next to the abolition of Israel.
The administration at Colombia is in tatters for supporting the protestors. They finally relented and asked for police removal. In part due to the rising cry for the removal of the president of the university as well as deep pocket donors announcing the cessation of funds contributions.
Also of serious note is the broad support by facility at these institutions. While the universities can suspend or expel the protestors, dealing with tenured professors is another matter.
The NYC police response may have put a damper on the takeovers, but the financial and operation support the protestors received is not about to allow the momentum developed over the past several days go to waste as it seems that for the moment they have found an issue upon which they can gain traction on and grow the movement. I think the ultimate goal is to eventually recreate the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020. Once classes are out here at the end of the month, the movement goes broader into the local communities and out of the nurseries of the college campuses. They’ve tapped into the genocidal hatred of Israel that the left embraces and found fertile ground in these college kids - born and raised in rich leftist homes.
I expect to see growth to incorporate the pro-illegal movements into the mix.
What will happen is that some of the old guard recipients of the lefts attention - predominantly blacks - may develop push back towards the pro-illegal supporters. This is seen in Detroit and Chicago where the democrat civic leaders are facing stiff push back in lavishing spending on illegals to the exclusion of the historic black underclasses.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of downgraded APR 20, 2024
Action between Israel and Iran appear to be deescalating at the moment.
Economy-
Home ownership continues to be on the ropes as prices continue to new highs and mortgage rates continue to climb as well to new highs.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Boxer will be out of commission for an unknown period of time due to the unavailability of large dry docks for rudder repair. The ship was supposed to be on a Pacific deployment.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A North Carolina Court of Appeals found that a clinic, where personnel gave a 14-year-old boy a COVID-19 shot without his consent or parental consent, was protected by the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP Act). The court concluded that the Guilford Board of Education, which hosted the clinic, was also covered by the PREP Act.1
Despite calling the act of forcing a child to get a COVID-19 shot against his will and without his parent’s consent, “egregious,” the court unanimously concluded that the PREP Act preempted state law and protected the defendants from being held liable for battery, violation of Tanner’s mother’s constitutional liberty and parental rights, and violation of Tanner’s bodily autonomy and plaintiffs’ federal constitutional rights.2
OBSERVATION - The moles in the judicial system continue to cover for civil rights violations stemming from the wuhan plandemic. This will certainly be appealed because the PREP act cannot be allowed to supersede constitutionally protected rights.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
I’m relatively silent on this for now. Congress, courts, WH, etc are so screwed up now along with the frenzy that this the incoming general elections that it all makes me sick to my stomach.
AS a threat, our political parties are on the cusp of essentially preparing the country for a multi-polar collapse - economy, legal system, election security, constitutional security etc.
The most dangerous potential actions continue to be a jump into full blown tyranny by the left utilizing multiple tools and false flag events. Equal to this are potential attempts on the lives of Trump and other key conservatives such as Justice Thomas. Secondly impacts create economic meltdown and possible war - both civil and against Russia/China/Iran.
***
(FO) Former President Trump’s legal team said Jack Smith’s office disregarded legal obligations and Department of Justice (DOJ) policies “to support the Biden Administration’s egregious efforts to weaponize the criminal justice system” against Trump.
According to the legal team’s filing, new evidence revealed that “politically motivated operatives” in the Biden administration and the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) began a “crusade” against Trump in early 2021.
Why It Matters: Newly un-redacted filings in the Miami court show that Trump Presidential Record Act representatives were cooperating with the NARA on turning over documents as required by the law. However, the records Trump’s legal team received through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) show that the White House Counsel’s Office was already in contact with the NARA on 21 January 2021 and referred the NARA to the DOJ. The evidence presented by Trump’s counsel appears to show that federal officials, including the Biden White House, began coordinating a politically motivated effort to punish Trump as soon as he left office.
Biden / Harris Watch –
“I condemn the antisemitic protests,” biden tells reporters. “I also condemn those who don’t understand what’s going on with the Palestinians”
North/South Korea –
North Korea has carried out a simulated nuclear counterattack against enemy targets personally observed by leader Kim Jong-un, state media reported on Tuesday. As part of the exercise, several “super-large” multiple rocket launchers fired a missile salvo towards an island in the Sea of Japan.
Monday’s drills came just days after Pyongyang claimed to have tested a new “super-large warhead” cruise missile and a new type of anti-aircraft missile. The US and South Korean air forces also continue to hold joint exercises on the peninsula.
Pyongyang for the first time claims to have tested the country’s so-called “nuclear trigger” command and control system, as well as “[the] prompt counterattack capacity of the state nuclear force,” the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) wrote. Military units worked in a hypothetical scenario in which North Korea’s highest level nuclear crisis alarm is issued in response to an attack.
OBSERVATION - NK’s missile forces have come a long way over the past decade. These exercises display that growth in technological and tactical developments. Though NK has successfully tested both fission and fusion (thermonuclear) bombs, the verdict is still out as to whether or not they possess the technology to miniaturize the mechanisms for placement on missiles. One would expect another nuke test for them to confirm the design. Early last year NK finished reopening tunnels at their underground test site sparking discussions that they may be preparing to conduct such a test of an actual warhead.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
NATO commanders are indicating that Russia is planning a substantial summer offensive.
RUMINT-
Russia reportedly has shifted most of its key rail supply lines towards the east and away from the Kerch Bridge, likely in expectation of an eventual attack that takes the bridge down. This shift makes sense given that most of the war action is on the Ukraine eastern fronts and not the southern ones.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Mostly dry thru the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 16 Shahed drones, launched by Russia overnight. Various Ukraine cities were hit by other missiles such as Kyiv and Odesa.
Kharkiv increasingly being targeted by missiles and glide bombs. The TV / cell phone tower in Kharkiv was partially collapsed after Russian airstrike.
Ukraine hit a large target near occupied Mariupol.
Russia has used large scale smoke cover for the first time in the war
in a push to Belogorovka to ensure the advancement of their troops. They are hoping the smoke will blind Ukranian drones to the movements of the forces.
Avdiivka -
Ukrainian forces screwed up a relief operation that has permitted the Russian army to surge to less than 3km from main Ukrainian defensive line west of Avdiivka. The advance has dangerously exposed flanks that Russian must quickly secure or face the forces being cut off and defeated.
Outlook —
Very bad day for Ukraine as Russia gains even more momentum. The push west of Avdiivka is the most dangerous and could place the Russian army at a key cross roads that would permit deeper enveloping attacks.
Russia has via propaganda been warning that Kharkiv will soon fall to a new Russian offensive. Russia has been pounding the city daily with drones and short ranged missiles for weeks now. Russia was thwarted in the first year of the war from taking the city due to the tenacious defense of its mobilized citizens and army units. With Russia seeing success on fronts to its south, it may sense a degree of vulnerability to renewed assaults. Russia has established a new higher command in the region that would direct those operations.
Old school solution to modern technology - smoke. Ukraine drones have been the bane of Russian forces for over a year now and have almost single handedly held the defense with the absence of artillery shells. It will be important to see how quickly Ukraine is able to counter this development.
Poland –
(FO) Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Poland is ready to host NATO nuclear weapons in response to Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus.
“If our allies decide to deploy nuclear arms on our territory as part of nuclear sharing to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, we are ready to do so,” Duda said.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania is establishing permanent military training centers that will operate nationwide to prepare personnel to serve in the rear during war, Defense Minister Laurynas Kasciunas told reporters on Friday.
A total of 27 command headquarters that are due to be fully operational next year will be set up in the major cities of the NATO member country in an effort to “prepare the public to send a deterrent signal to the enemy,” the official said.
The Baltic state’s Defense Ministry expects such command posts to become a “link between the Lithuanian Armed Forces and the citizens who can defend the country with arms” in the event of war.
Earlier this week, Germany sent its first military unit to Lithuania as part of a plan to have a full armor brigade permanently stationed in the Baltic state. Under the plan, the 5,000-strong brigade will be stationed less than 20km (12 miles) from the border with Belarus, a key Russian ally. Lithuania also borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
https://www.rt.com/news/595806-lithuania-nato-civilian-defense/
OBSERVATION - Lithuania has a history of being abused by Russian and fought hard to regain their freedom from the former Soviet Union. It along with other former Soviet eastern block countries are taking the threats of a potential Russian invasion in a post-Ukraine scenario very seriously.
Placement of the German military force reflects the concern over the corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad that some military planners see as the modern “Fulda Gap” - for you Cold Warriors - focus of an initial Russian strike to land bridge to Kaliningrad and split the Baltic states from the rest of NATO to the south.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas facing potential ejection from Qatar.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
US Secretary of State spokesman - Hamas has changed its goal and demands in the prisoner talks.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Two Hamas rocket launching positions in the southern Gaza Strip were struck by Israeli fighter jets overnight, the Israeli army says. The military says the strike was carried out following new intelligence information that was received over the past few days, allowing the rocket launchers to be destroyed before they were used.
Other rocket launchers managed to fire about a half dozen rockets from N Gaza into Israel.
Israel continued targeting Hamas and affiliated elements with air, naval and artillery strikes throughout the Gaza Strip. Over the past day, fighter jets and additional aircraft alone struck approximately 25 terror targets throughout the Gaza Strip, including military infrastructure, observation posts, and launch posts.
***
According to the Wall Street Journal:
IDF is getting ready to enter Rafah. The evacuation is estimated to take about two to three weeks, and it will take around six weeks to clear out Hamas in Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A drone launched missile targeted a car in S Lebanon, the Israeli Army reports that it eliminated two Hezbollah leaders in southern Lebanon.
A barrage of some 35 rockets were fired from Lebanon at the northern community of Ein Zeitim a short while ago, the military says.
The attack set off sirens in Safed and nearby towns.
The IDF says there are no injuries in the attack, and that troops shelled the launch sites.
Also overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck a Hezbollah position in southern Lebanon, and earlier, two more buildings where Hezbollah operatives were gathered were hit, the IDF adds.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces raided numerous sections, arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
“Today, a coalition fighter destroyed a launcher in self-defense after reports of a failed rocket attack near the Coalition base at Rumalyn, Syria. No US personnel were injured.” A US military official confirms.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatari Foreign Ministry: There has been no decision taken regarding the presence of Hamas leaders in Doha.
NOTE - the multi billionaire who are the ‘leaders’ of Hamas reside in Qatar and that country has been the focal point of much of the hostage/ceasefire negotiations. Now it appears that Hamas has worn its welcome out as there are rumblings of a pending expulsion - resulting in the above report.
Turkish media quoted Erdogan - “I do not think that Hamas will leave Qatar”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Until the preparations for the Rafah campaign are completed - if the WSJ source is correct - we will have about 2-3 weeks of ground and air ops as been ongoing for the previous week. Israel will continue to hit targets of opportunity in both Gaza and S Lebanon.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Hardline Iranian parliamentarian and member of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Javad Karimi Ghodousi implied that if granted the permission, Iran could test its first nuclear weapon within one week.
OBSERVATION - There is a lot of propaganda and rhetoric surrounding this statement, but intel analysis has indicated that Iran could produce the pure uranium necessary for a fission device. The second question is does Iran have the technical know how to produce a test bomb? Iran spent a lot of time (and probably money) in NIK as they developed their weapon and may have gotten a lot of know how from there. Pakistan may have also supplied knowledge. Now with Russia buying war supplies with transfer of technology, that for a nuke may well be buried in the mix as well.
Iran is far from the bumbling and stumbling weapons development country of but a few years ago. They have fair missile technology - though the recent attack against Israel suggests that they had a high failure rate. So some aspects of their skills and knowledge necessary to make a nuclear bomb may be lacking - all is speculation though.
One thing is certain - if Iran manages to pull an explosion off, they still have the next hurdle is to produce one sufficiently miniaturized to mount in a war head. Iran launched over 100 missiles at Israel and only 7 managed to make it through the defenses and crash failures. To succeed at that ration means Iran has to make A LOT of nuclear warheads, or find some other covert way of delivering them to a desired target.
That is only feasible if Israel doesn’t massively hit Iran’s production centers before this occurs.