Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The weekend is upon us and I expect that the pro-hamas elements will be scattered about attempting to disrupt traffic, air travel and any govt legislature. Schumer’s statement on the Senate floor yesterday may stir up some energy, we’ll have to see.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Its been out there for a few days now, but West Point has completed its transition to Woke Point via removal of ‘Duty, Honor and Country’
Those who haven’t served won’t recognize the heights our military has fallen. And as much as ring knockers were when I was active duty - this is a major blow to the credibility of the junior officer corps - which will eventually migrate to higher levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
Breaking -
McAfee ruled that Willis can continue to prosecute the former president and his co-defendants, but he has given the state multiple options to handle the case. All options involve Nathan Wade stepping away from the team.
“The prosecution of this case cannot proceed until the State selects one of two options,” McAfee wrote in his decision.
- “The District Attorney may choose to step aside, along with the whole of her office, and refer the prosecution to the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council for reassignment...
-Alternatively, (Special Assistant District Attorney) Wade can withdraw, allowing the District Attorney, the Defendants, and the public to move forward without his presence or remuneration distracting from and potentially compromising the merits of this case.”
https://pjmedia.com/chris-queen/2024/03/15/breaking-fani-willis-decision-n4927325
OBSERVATION - Fallout from this decisions will become clearer as the smart folk tear into the wording of the decision. At first glance it is a mixed bag of worms. But the judge cowardly refused to execute maximum judgement in the face of blatant perjury by both Willis and Wade.
***
Schumer’s sudden, hard line against Israel is reverberation today. This may signal a hard leftist turn given the recent growth of the ‘uncommitted’ campaign and the loss of progressive democrat enthusiasm for an administration that continually supports Israel. This may reflect democrat recognition of this being a signal of depressed voter turnout for Biden in November. This may broaden the internal conflict between old school, Israel supporting democrats and their leftist progressive wing.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol agents in the Tucson Sector continue to experience a spike in migrant apprehensions. So far this fiscal year, Tucson Sector agents apprehended more than 312,000 migrants in just over five months.
During at least the last eight weeks, agents in the Tucson Sector apprehended more than 11,000 migrants per week who illegally crossed the border between ports of entry, according to a social media post from Chief Patrol Agent John Modlin.
According to official and unofficial reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas, Tucson Sector agents apprehended more than 300,000 migrants this fiscal year, which began on October 1, 2023. This is up by nearly 170 percent from the same period one year earlier.
The apprehensions in the Tucson Sector represent approximately one-third of all migrant apprehensions by Border Patrol agents nationwide, according to an unofficial Border Patrol report reviewed by Breitbart Texas.
OBSERVATION - Crossing have continued to shift to the west following TX closure of the border.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election on March 17
Voting has begun in Russia’s presidential election, which is all but certain to hand Vladimir Putin another six years in power.
Ballots will be cast over three days, even though the result is not in doubt as he has no credible opponent.
Polling stations opened in the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia’s easternmost region, at 08:00 local time on Friday (20:00 GMT on Thursday) and will finally close in the westernmost Kaliningrad exclave at 20:00 on Sunday the 17th.
putin has already been in power in Russia longer than any ruler since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
OBSERVATION - The results are a given, this only serves as eye wash for the world.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its own borders into neighboring Belarus, several hundred miles closer to NATO territory, Western officials confirmed to Foreign Policy, as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens a wider military showdown with the alliance over its continued support for Ukraine.
The move, which Putin first announced in June of last year, is likely aimed at ramping up pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. It follows years of nuclear saber-rattling intended to scare the West into paring back its support for Ukraine, now in its third year of war against Russia’s invasion, though top NATO officials insist that the move doesn’t drastically change the nature of Russia’s military threats to NATO.
Arvydas Anusauskas, Lithuania’s defense minister, was the first top official within the NATO alliance to confirm the news of the deployment. He warned that the risks of Western inaction were high, citing the lackluster response in the West to Russia moving more nuclear weapons to the Kaliningrad Peninsula, which is bounded by Poland and Lithuania on either side.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-nuclear-weapons-belarus-putin/
OBSERVATION - This seems to be a continuation of putin’s policy of “escalate to deescalate”, where the threats are ramped up and upon seeing the west back down, then deescalates. Talk from other NATO members, like France, indicate a growing willingness to use nukes against Russia should any expansion of the Ukraine war occur.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 27 Shahed drones. Russian army also launched 7 S-300/S-400 missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk region and Kh-59 missile at Poltava region
Propaganda from the Legion suggests some tactical successes.
There are reports that people are leaving Belgorod. This is backed with some reality.The Bilhorod region is once again under attack. Since this morning, continuous shelling and drone attacks occur after the announcement by Russian insurgent forces that they would increase attacks.
A part of the center of Bilhorod is covered in smoke, cars are burning, after heavy shelling from Russian insurgents.
Legion forces have also claimed to have destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouses in Tyotkino,
Russian Volunteer Corps Chief of Staff Oleksandr, known as “Fortuna,” disclosed that their unit has penetrated “several dozen kilometers” into Russian territory and has captured prisoners. He said that the operation was planned for months.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims regaining full control over Kozinka village of Belgorod region. This follows rumors of a Legion air assault operations at the town.
Russian Territory –
Explosions at refinery in Polotnyany Zavod village of Kaluga , Russia, after drone strike. Russia claims 4 drones were shot down over Kaluga region.
Outlook —
The Legion’s foray into Russia is designed for one thing - propaganda directed towards the Russian elections. Just enough resources have been tossed into it to make it a real threat to Belgorod. Russian news keeping the action under hard wraps - as it is embarrassing to putin and corrodes his declarations that Russia is untouchable.
Same goes for the UAV attacks on Russian oil refineries. They are a big symbol of Russia’s inability to contain Ukraine and damages are piling up.
OTOH, increasing concern over Ukraine running out of all kinds of ammo. Their army is very successful in the past when fully armed, now are having to make due with a lot less against a foe that is working to overwhelm it by mass of bodies.
Belarus -
Belarus has reportedly deployed tanks near its border with NATO, while tensions between Russia and the strategic alliance continue to simmer amid the war in Ukraine.
The Belarusian military “mobilized reservists and kicked off major military maneuvers,” according to a report published by The Kyiv Post on Thursday. Troops and equipment including tanks from Belarus’ 19th Guards Mechanized Brigade were reportedly deployed near the country’s western border with NATO member country Lithuania.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement shared on social media that a military training exercise was taking place in a region that includes Oshmyany through April 5. Additional exercises were reportedly taking place in several other regions of Belarus, including some in areas not far from the border with Poland, another NATO member country.
OBSERVATION - Lithuania has one of the smaller military forces in NATO and as such a likely target for the Belarus army. The Belarus army has been doing a lot of training over the past couple years to make up for its poor rating. The past year, former Wagner personnel have been conducting a lot of the training, so that the readiness of the forces is in far better shape than the start of the Ukraine war. Further, Belarus army has fewer concerns about attacking Lithuania versus Ukraine.
Note too forces are training opposite of Poland.
Strategically, there is a strip of Polish/Lithuanian land that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus. This is one of the ‘land bridges’ putin eventually wants to control so that Russia forces can project power further to the west. The other ‘land bridge’ was to connect with Transnistria.
As for now, this continues to appear to be a large, readiness exercise. For Belarus to invade Lithuania (or even Poland for that matter) would generate a NATO Art 5 response that would go as far as to justify NATO entering Ukraine against Russia as well. Belarus has done a lot of training, but I don’t think we are at that end game yet.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron has been very outspoken regarding the movement towards a broad European war with Russia should Ukraine’s defense fail. His wartalk is being echoed by many in the EU/NATO.
***
Russia has been accused of jamming the satellite signal on an RAF plane carrying Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in its latest act of hostility.
The country’s latest act of hostility took place while Defence Secretary was returning from a visit to Poland.
He went with his team and a group of journalists to watch hundreds of British troops take part in NATO’s biggest exercise since the Cold War.
For roughly 30 minutes, the RAF aircraft’s GPS signal jammed and mobile phones could no longer connect to the internet as it flew near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hama released its hostage release/ceasefire proposal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The proposal submitted by Hamas through Qatar for a deal to release hostages includes several stages - including one calling for a complete cessation of hostilities, as reported by the Reuters news agency.
According to the report, the first phase will include the release of women (including those Hamas defined as ‘soldiers’), children, the elderly, and male hostages who are ill. This is in exchange for between 700-1,000 Arab terrorists.
Hamas proposed that immediately after this stage a discussion would be started on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and setting a date for the withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip.
In the second phase and subject to the progress of the discussions, all of the hostages remaining in Gaza would be released in exchange for hundreds and possibly even thousands of terrorists.
The War Cabinet will convene this afternoon and discuss Hamas’ response, after which the expanded cabinet will also convene.
The Prime Minister’s Office last night poured cold water on the Hamas proposal, stating, “Hamas continues making preposterous demands. An update on the issue will be brought tomorrow before the War Cabinet and the Political-Security Cabinet.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/386791
***
In a long speech on the floor yesterday Senate Majority Chuck Schumer called for the replacement of the current Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Times of Israel has posted the full text of Schumer’s remarks here. According to Schumer, Netanyahu is an obstacle to peace, the two-state final solution, and the source of all the other ills of the world.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City on March 13 likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
***
Israel’s police force said it will deploy thousands of officers across Jerusalem’s Old City for Ramadan’s first Friday prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, with tensions high amid the Gaza war.
“We are prepared for Friday prayers with more police officers. Thousands of them will be in the area of Temple Mount,” police spokeswoman Mirit ben Mayor told reporters, referring to the holy site upon which the mosque sits.
Hundreds of police officers had already been deployed in the Old City in since Ramadan began on Monday, she said.
Last week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Muslim worshippers would be allowed to access Al-Aqsa Mosque in the same numbers as in previous years during the first week of Ramadan.
“Every week there will be a situation assessment in terms of security and safety and a decision will be made accordingly,” it said.
Palestine Foreign Ministry: Israeli restrictions on prayer at Al-Aqsa are a spark to detonate the situation in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
Plans continue to move forward on entering Rafah to liquidate Hamas forces there. Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza.
Hamas’ hostage / cease fire offer is right on schedule. If you remember, they offered similar during previous Israeli stages in Northern and Central Gaza. It is a delay tool, especially in the face of an impending Israeli action into Rafah, where the last 8 or so intact battalions of Hamas are hiding, along with probably the remaining major leaders. Hamas wants to keep some force intact to facilitate its retaking of control of Gaza.
That retaking of control is shifting focus to the various clans of Gaza. Israel has already reached out to many in an effort for them to take over come civil control. Hamas sees that as a threat to their power. However, their attack on a key clan - especially in their weakened state - may blow up in their faces.
Clans in the Moslem world are very tightly knit. Osama ben Laden married into a powerful clan in Afghanistan knowing that any attack on him would net a very powerful defensive force. Time will tell how the interactions with the clans of Gaza pans out for either side.
Right now, Israel is unlikely to accept Hamas’ offer on many grounds and the ground movement into Rafah will soon happen.
One final item. The US democrat leadership appear to be making a hard 180 in regards to support to Israel. First the extension of sanction wavers to Iran, to the tune of $10 BILLION dollars. Second, the threat to restrict the use of US military supplies if Israel enters Rafah. US support of a forced two state solution and more sanctions of israelis in the West Bank. Now Chucky Schumer demanding that Israel stop everything and replace Netanyahu as the countries leader - right in the middle of a war of national survival. The fall out from Schumer’s statement will be reverberating for the next several days at least.
Central / South America General-
US State Department says it is not “actively planning” evacuation efforts for any Americans still in Haiti.
“Haiti has been a level four country with respect to our travel advisors since 2020. For four years we’ve been telling Americans do not go to Haiti.”
OBSERVATION - Once again, our country is leaving citizens out to dry as things hit the fan.
Misc of Note –
More fear mongering. An area off the coast of Washington state is being shaken by hundreds and hundreds of earthquakes. Scientists are saying that the quakes are centered around a large underwater volcano. The underwater volcano does not pose a threat at all, but if an enormous earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone were to trigger a giant tsunami that slams into the west coast, that would be a historic disaster of epic proportions.
So the claim is that this an indication of potential trouble for the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Take a deep breath folks. While I fully concur that the Cascadia subduction zone is a MAJOR threat to the Pacific NW and the rest of the west coast, volcanic activity, this activity will not trigger it in the short term.
The quakes and ‘volcano’ are centered on the Juan de Fuca Ridge - a spreading center. The eruption when it occurs will be similar to the ones in recent times in Iceland - fluid basaltic.
Tectonically, the spreading center is pushing the Juan De Fuca plate eastward under the continental US at the Cascadia subduction zone. The eruption and associate spreading are contributors to a much larger spreading of the whole ridge system.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB1jQ1GO.img?w=534&h=428&m=6
This fear mongering is much like the very periodic ones surrounding Yellowstone any time there is a seismic swarm recorded there. Mostly by poorly informed individuals who don’t put the whole picture together.
The Pacific NW and west coast is not ready for a magnitude 9 quake / tsunami - an it will hit at a time of its own choosing, like it did in 1700. Linking it directly to seismic and volcanic activity many miles away is stretching it.
Indeed it is. It is almost inconceivable how this could happen without the West Point and Army leadership raising holy hell even given the appalling Woke culture permeating the Academies and armed services. The gelding of our military culture continues full throttle.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
This could be pasted on several topic within this post, but overall, it seems to best fit here for now.
Campaigners are urging consumers to stop buying Tyson products amid its wave of closures of poultry- and meat-processing plants across Iowa, Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana, and Missouri.
They point to Tyson’s efforts to hire thousands of asylum seekers in New York, offering $16.50-an-hour wages and free immigration lawyers, accusing the firm of ditching US-born workers for cheaper migrant labor.Tyson foods is about to be in a world of hurt for firing Americans and hiring ‘asylum seekers’.
The meat-packer already employs about 42,000 immigrants among its 120,000-strong US workforce, and seeks to boost this by cooperating with the Tent Partnership for Refugees, a nonprofit, among other efforts.
‘We would like to employ another 42,000 if we could find them,’ Garrett Dolan, who leads Tyson’s social efforts, told Bloomberg recently.
In recent weeks, the company hired dozens of asylum seekers from Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia at a job fair in New York City. They travelled to work at its poultry plant in Humboldt, Tennessee.
According to Dolan, asylum seekers fill the gaps at plants with a high turnover of staff — the company needs to fill 52,000 jobs this year.
Tyson Foods Quietly Partnered with Protix for more “Sustainable Protein Production”. Protix is the leading global insect ingredients company.
Last year, China-based Shandong Bao Shuan Group purchased a majority stake in Tyson Foods…
Through a direct equity investment, Tyson Foods will acquire a minority stake in Protix to help fund its global expansion.
In addition, Tyson Foods and Protix have entered a joint venture for the operation and construction of an insect ingredient facility in the continental United States.
OBSERVATION - Replacement ‘conspiracy’, globalist food control (you vill eatz de bugs and be happy), and Chinese overlords. These illegals will be far more willing to work as dirt cheap labor prices. But then again - food safety becomes an increasing concern.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
(FO) Poor People’s Economic Human Rights Campaign, who refer to themselves as the “Poor People’s Army,” are planning protests at the Democratic (DNC) and Republican National Conventions (RNC) this summer.
The reported plan is, following the 15 July RNC protest in Milwaukee, WI, the group is scheduled to march 100 miles to Chicago, IL for the 19 August DNC. The group will make stops along the march to spread their message that both Democrats and Republicans are “dead-end parties” pursuing corporatist policies at home and war abroad.
OBSERVATION - The nature and level of political based violence at both conventions is still speculatory. Numerous democrat groups in Chicago have been on record saying they will make things hot for democrats after having tens of thousands of illegals dumped on their front doors, taking away their govt goodies. Pro-hamas elements are likely to protest there as well - especially if the situation in the Gaza war spins up further.
Violence at the RNC is a certain given Trump’s selection as the presidential candidate. Anarchists and leftists will be out in force. Current assessment on my part is that both conventions will have to deal with serious rioting.
Terrorism -
Ramadan began March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
This will not be the final word on this soap opera, stay tuned for season 2.
“I think the result is utterly dishonest,” Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz said Friday after Fulton County Georgia Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled that, even though she committed several offenses, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis can proceed with her election interference prosecution of Donald Trump.
“We all know there was an actual conflict of interest here,” Dershowitz said in an interview with Newsmax, adding that Judge McAfee “just didn’t have the guts to say it.”
“And this is a weaselly way out,” Dershowitz said.
Dershowitz said the ruling greatly compromises the nation’s legal system, because it’s obvious to anyone who followed the case that, at the very least, Willis’ affair, and money exchanged with, a prosecutor on the case displayed the appearance of impropriety required to remove her.
“Who are you going to believe, this judge or your lying eyes?” Dershowitz asked, rhetorically.
“If anybody believes that she (Willis) actually paid back every penny in cash (to her prosecutor-lover), I got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn,” Dershowitz said.
People are on death row, based on weaker evidence than that against Wills, Dershowitz observed.
“There are people in prison, there are people in death row, based on evidence less strong than this.”
“This is a scandal and the judge just didn’t have the courage to do the right thing,” Dershowitz said.
***
They are still counting ballots in kalifornia to decide the Senate race for feinswines’ seat. Yep, well over a week now and they still haven’t found the boxes of ‘votes’ to put Schiff over the finish line.
***
The Republican National Committee (RNC) under new chair Lara Trump announced on Friday that they will be working closely with Scott Presler to increase voter turnout ahead of the US 2024 Presidential Election in November.
The announcement was made by the RNC’s new co-chair, Lara Trump. Scott Presler is a prominent conservative activist who has become notable for registering thousands of conservative voters and teaching at voter registration workshops across the country.
OBSERVATION - This is in addition to the jettisoning of several dozen pieces of deadwood in the RNC offices.
Illegal Immigration –
A boat carrying 25 illegal aliens from Haiti has been intercepted in waters near Florida, according to the state’s Governor, Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis told a press conference this afternoon: “They had firearms, they had drugs, they had night vision gear...That vessel was interdicted, those illegal aliens were turned over to the Coast Guard for deportation.”
Officers from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) were conducting a patrol near Sebastian Inlet at 7.30pm on Thursday, February 29.
They stopped a 42-foot vessel which was involved in what they described as a “human smuggling operation.”
Investigators found onboard 25 individuals, including five unaccompanied children, alongside the weapons, night vision gear and drugs.
https://www.the-express.com/news/us-news/131270/haiti-migrants-arrested-florida-guns-ron-desantis
OBSERVATION - Weapons, NVGs and drugs - just the kind of wonderful cultural enhancers biden wants for this country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election thru March 17
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The ground component of the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, combat very limited and not confirmed territorial gains. Most action was in the Avdiivka sector.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukraine drones attacked the Syzran and Novokuibyshevsky oil refineries in the Samara region, a fire broke out at both locations according to the regional governor.
Outlook —
News on the “Legion’s “ exploits have dropped off, though Bolograd remains under artillery fire.
Ukraine’s long war against Russian petroleum facilities continues with successes. As I’ve noted before, Russia is a big country with lots of targets that they are unable to cover adequately with their ADA assets. Petroleum facilities are good targets for these drones as it only takes a small amount of explosives to set off fuel storage tanks and the like, which spread damage to adjacent systems.
I’ve also been assessing reports of Russian ‘successes’ in striking key Ukrainian assets Among these are recent hits on Patriot systems, HIMARS launchers and helicopters. A lot of speculation ranging from the new national leader being less OPSEC conscience to says successfully infiltrating into Ukraine and passing time critical targeting information to dedicated Russian strategic/tactical assets.
Finally, action along the fronts is stable and on a lowered level of action. It seems that Russia has lost a serious degree of momentum and initiative. If what I’m seeing is correct, the cause may well be the massive losses Russia suffered to gain Avdiivka combined with terrible logistical support.
Belarus -
Belarus pro freedom sources are noting unusual helicopter traffic. They noted “that a camouflaged command post of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces is located on the territory of “Site 400. Kupol”. For the first time we told about this place on the 14th day of the war (motolko.help/en-news/is-the…). Six months later, we came to the conclusion that GPS-jamming near Minsk became a harbinger of war (motolko.help/en-news/how-gp… ). Since then, EW work near Minsk has been virtually unabated, and has only intensified in recent months.”
They don’t see any current threat of a repeat of an invasion as in 2022, but there are some parallels. There are no Russian forces in the area as in 2022, leaving Belarus military in the overall region.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light on Friday for Israel to launch a ground invasion into Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Friday that Chuck Schumer made a “good speech” the previous day in which the Senate majority leader called for new elections in Israel and harshly criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace
***
Bipartisan group of 8 US senators, including SFRC chairman & ranking member, call for Qatar to expel Hamas if talks fail. “If Hamas refuses reasonable negotiations, there is no reason for Qatar to continue hosting Hamas’ political office or any of its members in Doha.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight, Israeli army artillery and air strikes hit throughout the strip non stop as well as heavy fighting.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has authorized plans for a military operation in Rafah. The IDF is gearing up for the operational aspect and the evacuation of the local population from the area.
***
Amid calls for more ‘food’ relief to enter Gaza, the actual count of trucks entering the strip have reportedly exceeded the average number pre-war. Hamas continues to hijack trucks, and then sell the food on the black market.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Clashes broke out between youths and security forces inside the village of Arbouna, east of Jenin
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Senior figures from Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels held a rare meeting to discuss coordinating their actions against Israel, according to a Western report citing Palestinian sources.
This comes as Houthi spokesman Nasr Al-Din Amer announced Hamas is holding the crew of a ship seized by Yemenite jihadis in November.
The Galaxy Leader cargo ship was hijacked the Red Sea 116 days ago with the jihadists having laid siege to the ship and taken hostage the ship’s crew of 17 Filipinos, two Bulgarians, three Ukrainians, two Mexicans and a Romanian.
***
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a Marxist-Leninist terrorist group based in Gaza, published a communique saying they “[hold] the American administration and the war criminal Biden responsible” for the anticipated Israeli military occupation of Rafah.
***
A shipment of weapons belonging to Iranian militias was destroyed by US strikes after arriving in Deir Ezzor.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Calls from various govts and international agencies for a ceasefire and two state solution continue to be made. Now the call for no attack on Rafah as well.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza. IAF continues to uncover thousands and thousands of cumulative meters of tunnels and bunkers beneath northern and central Gaza. The pattern remains consistent, in that these tunnels tend to be located adjacent to or beneath civilian features. Clearing and destruction of these tunnels is a long process as they have to have booby traps neutralized, items of intelligence worth found and retrieved and explosives set to destroy them. And because Hamas located these tunnels under schools, mosques, hospitals and civilian apartments, the destruction of those tunnels damages/destroys the overlying surface features too.
With Israel apparently giving the military the go for Rafah operations, one can see the clear effort of Hamas to stall the effort with a disingenuous hostage plan. And there are no guarantees that Hamas will hold up their end of the bargain. It is all eyewash to project to the world that they are the victim. Movement of non-combatants out of Rafah have been ongoing for a while and with the GO order, the movement should increase substantially.
“Resistance” efforts in eastern Syria and Iraq continue on the quiet side. Houthis manage to shoot some drones/missiles off on a daily basis, but are also sustaining losses of equipment and munitions in pre-launch configuration. I don’t have the latest on the IRGC Beshar intel vessel believed to be supplying the targeting data to the Houthi, so my general inference is that the vessel continues to be in ‘safe’ harbor and not contributing to targeting efforts.
For now, things have calmed a little between Israel and Hezbollah. But i don’t believe that the calm will last for much longer. Ramadan hype and a move on Rafah by Israel may trigger a substantial attack by Hezbollah. Whether or not it reaches the level of a preemptive strike is unknown at this time. I still see Israel holding off the fight in the north until Rafah is subdued and forces/materials can be redirected to the north.