Report production interrupted for the following of the SpaceX Starship test launch. Incredible!
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Justin Trudeau’s government has proposed a law giving judges the power to put someone under house arrest if they fear they could commit a hate crime.
Critics have warned the “draconian” bill is an overreach of power and could stifle free speech and difficult discussions.
But Canada’s justice minister defended the measure, claiming it would be an “important” tool to help protect potential victims.
One of the suggested measures would give judges the ability to put people under house arrest who they worry could commit a hate crime in the future. The person could also be made to wear an electronic tag if the attorney-general requested it.
Arif Virani, the justice minister, said the measures could prove “very important” in restraining the behaviour of someone who might be targeting minority groups.
”[If] there’s a genuine fear of an escalation, then an individual or group could come forward and seek a peace bond against them and to prevent them from doing certain things,” Mr Virani said.
OBSERVATION - Bill C-63 was commented on yesterday, now more is being peeled back and its not pretty. These ‘precrime’ arrests and punishments have been floating around for many years. Now the WEF’s testbed country - Canada - is attempting to put them into practice in a nasty manner.
Coming soon to an America near you.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
GOP Colorado Rep Ken Buck departure leaves the House Republicans with a 218-213 majority and three vacancies that will be filled by special elections before November. House Democrats have only one vacancy to fill after Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) resigned on Feb. 2.
However, there is RUMINT of a darker side to Buck’s departure - reports that he said 4 more people will leave with him. If this happens, it could swing the House under control of Hakeem Jeffries and the democrats. Same democrats who are making preparations NOT to certify the results of Nov’s election if Trump wins. With control of the house, such an action would almost be a certainty.
As a big time never-Trumper, is Buck willing to destroy the election process in his hate of Trump?.
OBSERVATION - I’m searching to see if this rumored threat by Buck is valid or something cooked up on the web. If this pans out as the worst case scenario, it could trigger real violence in January. Instead of largely peaceful protestors entering the capitol - unarmed, the real guns may well come out. Democrats will be full on guilty of what they’ve accused republicans of over the past 3+ years. The constitutional crisis will be off the charts.
How far off the charts is this scenario? It is plausible, given that the majority of democrats favor an attempt to stop the certification if Trump wins and there are democrats in congress already openly making plans to do so. Jeffries is a hard core leftie, who like pelosi, would have no qualms over the action and would actively support it. This could become one of the many triggers democrats use to permit imposition of martial law and attempt to eliminate Trump supporters all together. The situation must be watched carefully.
***
On Saturday, a San Bernardino sheriff’s deputy shot and killed a 15-year-old. According to BLM and the media, the deputy slaughtered an autistic black teenager in cold blood. According to known facts, 15-year-old Ryan Gainer’s family called the sheriff because the allegedly autistic teen was terrorizing them. Gainer attacked the deputy, who fired in self-defense.
A story from Britain’s Guardian tips you off to how the piece will be covered: “California officer shoots and kills boy, 15, holding gardening tool.” Imagine a peaceful child raking the lawn when a sheriff drives by and fires. However, even The Guardian explains that the family called 911 because they were afraid and that Gainer charged the deputy:
OBSERVATION - BLM scrounging around for a ‘victim’ that they can use to rally the troops and begin another round of violence and rioting. I don’t think this is going to work for them as the optics are not optimal
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
Biden’s 2025 budget proposal includes billions of dollars to push gender fluidity, sexuality, and (racist) race ideology — including $30 million to increase the number of educators completing a program that trains teachers to teach (indoctrinate) kids on the “inclusivity” of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusivity (DEI).
Released this week, Biden’s massive $7.3 trillion budget includes $3 billion to, as the White House touted “advance gender equity and equality worldwide.”
With due respect to Congressman Good, Biden’s 2025 budget proposal goes beyond merely pandering to the Democrat base. All Democrat proposals pander to rank-and-file Democrat voters.
The difference is Joe Biden and the Democrats have crossed the Rubicon and are now at a place where they seek nothing less than the re-education of some and the indoctrination of others with an insidious sickness that would ultimately destroy America as we know it if they succeed.
OBSERVATION - This is going far beyond the old fashioned culture wars - into direct indoctrination at a federal level. Further, to accomplish this, the regime must continue to shatter the family, separating children from parents - so expect further attacks on parent’s rights.
***
The judge overseeing the Georgia 2020 election interference case on Wednesday dismissed some of the charges against former President Donald Trump and others, but the rest of the sweeping racketeering indictment remains intact.
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee quashed six counts in the indictment, including three against Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee. But the judge left in place other counts — including 10 facing Trump — and said prosecutors could seek a new indictment to try to reinstate the ones he dismissed.
OBSERVATION - This greatly helps Trump and sets the law fare of the activists DA back a few paces. Still pending is whether Willis and her lover are going to get canned from the case altogether.
Illegal Immigration –
Ron DeSantis will send over 250 additional soldiers - and a fleet of aircraft and boats - to ‘protect’ Florida from vessels carrying Haitian asylum seekers.
The conservative governor made the edict Wednesday, as unrest in the Caribbean country continued for a second week.
The deployment will include 48 National Guardsmen, as well as four helicopters that will add to an already boisterous line of defense along the state’s southern coast.
A further 39 officers from the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, 30 from Florida Highway Patrol, and 23 from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission will also join the front, as well as a litany of aircraft and drones and eight boats.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13195411/DeSantis-sends-soldiers-protect-florida-haiti.html
OBSERVATION - DeSantis has resumed doing good now that he has stopped his campaign for the ’24 presidency. Florida will be ground zero for the attempts by Haitians to enter the US.
IN RELATED - The govt is evaluating whether or not to use facilities at Gitmo to process the wave of Haitian refugees that are expected to flood this way.
MORE RELATED - Coast Guard Cutter Benard C. Webber’s crew repatriated 33 migrants to Haiti, Monday, following an interdiction of a migrant venture near Fort Pierce Inlet, Florida.
A good Samaritan notified Sector Miami watchstanders of a grounded fishing vessel, at approximately 10:30 a.m., on Feb. 3.
The Coast Guard and its Homeland Security Task Force - Southeast partners will continue to be a presence in the air and on the waters to detect and deter migrants from attempting to unlawfully enter the U.S. by sea.
“U.S. maritime borders are not open to unauthorized entry or illicit trafficking,” said Lt. Cmdr. Sean Newmeyer, Coast Guard District Seven. “Coast Guard and our partners are committed to stopping illegal ventures, preventing unsafe voyages at sea and enforcing U.S. immigration laws and regulations.”
Coast Guard crews repatriated 53 migrants to Haiti in fiscal year 2024, which began on Oct. 1, 2023.
***
A second wave of Venezuela’s worst criminals could soon be rushing over the US border after being released from prison in their home country.
DailyMail.com was first to report on the first wave of Venezuelan gangsters to cross the border and filter into American cities - including henchmen for dictator Nicolas Maduro and members of the notorious Tren de Aragua gang.
Now, more gang bangers and thugs who had been locked away are being released, according to a government official.
Since Friday, we have been carrying out in the state of Miranda, an operation looking into preventative centers and prisons,’ Supreme Court of Justice Magistrate Edgar Gavidia said, adding that 100 prisoners had already been turned loose.
‘We’re looking case-by-case at anyone, giving justice to those who at one time made a mistake in their lives to expedite justice.’
Speaking to DailyMail.com by phone Monday, Miami immigration attorney Rolando Vazquez warned, ‘These are killers.’
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election on March 17
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced the introduction of personal sanctions against 227 U.S. nationals involved in “the development of Washington’s Russophobic course”
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Where is Gerasimov? Well, he is reportedly dismissed as Chief of the Russian General Staff. According to Russian media, Lieutenant General Viktor Poznihir will temporarily perform the duties of the Chief of the General Staff.
The question remains. Where is Gerasimov?
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 22 of 36 drones overnight. Damage to civilian infrastructure in Velykyi Burluk and Lozova of Kharkiv region as result of drone strikes
Legion forces are engaged at the border in Glotovo, Spodaryushino, Zarechye-Pervoye of Belgorod region
Action along other fronts appears to be stable, with no significant actions.
Crimean front —
Explosions were reported in Skadovsk.
Russian Territory –
Explosion was reported in central Belgorod, smoke was observed rising.
2 drones attacked Prokhorovka village of Belgorod region
The FSB reports the detention in St. Petersburg of four members of the organization “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDK).
Outlook —
Ukraine’s drone blitz yesterday did substantial damage to Russian targets. Ukraine destroyed 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity in two days, according to Bloomberg. That is a big hit.
Ground action remains at a stalemate, with the exception of the actions by the Legion. Actual Legion status is not clear - fog of war and OPSEC.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israel Defense Forces may soon begin the long-awaited ground offensive into the town of Rafah, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted while visiting IDF troops in the western portion of Gaza City on Wednesday.
“I met the troops who are conducting extraordinary work above and below the ground. Our forces reach every location [necessary], and we can conclude that there is no safe haven for terrorists in Gaza.”
“Even those who think we are delayed will soon see that we will reach every location [necessary]. We will bring to justice anyone who was involved in the events [massacre conducted] on October 7th. We will either eliminate them [the terrorists] or bring them to trial in Israel,” Gallant vowed.
“There is no safe haven – not here, not outside of Gaza, not across the Middle East – we will bring them to justice.”
***
Washington has told Jerusalem it could support a limited IDF military operation against “high value” Hamas targets in Rafah in southern Gaza, according to a report published Wednesday in Politico.
The American news outlet wrote that senior Biden administration officials conveyed to their Israeli counterparts that the United States could support targeted raids against the terrorist group’s top officials both above ground and in the vast tunnel system running underneath the city along the Egyptian border.
Concern has been mounting in Washington and European capitals about the safety of noncombatants during an Israeli offensive to defeat the final four Hamas battalions concentrated there, consisting of roughly 3,000 fighters, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the AIPAC conference via video link on Tuesday is essential to winning the war.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/u-s-idf-military-operation/2024/03/14/id/1157223/
OBSERVATION - This will most likely be totally rejected by Israel. The US is trying to force the fight into Hamas favor - this is what Hamas planned for. The only way to eliminate Hamas forces in Rafah is on the ground, locating and destroying the underground network and potentially freeing hostages. The biden regime want us to ignore the fact that Hamas tunnels are extensive and consistently buried under common facilities granted exemptions from attack, such as hospitals, schools and residential areas. Selective bombing would accomplish Israel’s goals.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
IAF increased its air strikes across Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery struck Hezbollah positions all along the Israeli/Lebanese border zone overnight.
Hezbollah launched 6 missiles towards the Ruwaisat Al-Alam in the Kafr Shuba hills, N Israel.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
Israeli security forces raided numerous towns across the West Bank, targeting terrorist holdouts.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 50NM southeast of Aden, Yemen. The vessel’s Master reports an explosion at a distance astern of the vessel, the vessel has sustained no damage and the crew are reported safe. The vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
***
Houthi rebels have successfully tested a hypersonic missile and the group intends to use such missiles against Israel and targets at sea, a source close to the group tells RIA Novosti
OBSERVATION - Release for propaganda. They’ve only utilized Iranian supplied rockets and technology.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
Plans continue to move forward on entering Rafah to liquidate Hamas forces there. Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza.
I don’t believe the Houthi claim of a hypersonic weapon. Internally, they don’t have the capability. If they have something, it has been smuggled in by Iran which has recently made claims of developing one.
Iran –
Biden Administration has reportedly approved the renewal of an Iran sanctions waiver what will allow the Iranian regime to Collect upwards of $10 Billion from Iraq for electricity payments through third-party countries such as Qatar and Oman; this waiver was previously approved by Biden in November of 2023 and was set to expires this month.
OBSERVATION - Another 10 BILLION for the support of terrorism.
We are in a moment of almost unprecedented peril in this country, and yet perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the present situation is that almost no one is talking about it. Imagine yourself on a storm-tossed vessel headed for the rocks in a thunderstorm — and everyone blissfully asleep below decks. The war in Ukraine continues without any sign of a serious effort to bring it to a negotiated conclusion. Our only “plan” seems to be to continue to pour jet fuel on the fire. Virtually every week another senior Russian official threatens the use of nuclear weapons. This is the kind of thing that used to be considered a “crisis.” Now it barely merits mention.
Excerpted
Sam Faddis on Steve Bannon's War Room:
https://rumble.com/v4j8pvt-fmr.-cia-operative-sam-faddis-warns-of-possible-terrorist-attacks-that-woul.html
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The weekend is upon us and I expect that the pro-hamas elements will be scattered about attempting to disrupt traffic, air travel and any govt legislature. Schumer’s statement on the Senate floor yesterday may stir up some energy, we’ll have to see.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Its been out there for a few days now, but West Point has completed its transition to Woke Point via removal of ‘Duty, Honor and Country’
Those who haven’t served won’t recognize the heights our military has fallen. And as much as ring knockers were when I was active duty - this is a major blow to the credibility of the junior officer corps - which will eventually migrate to higher levels.
POLITICAL FRONT –
March 22, second funding deadline
***
Breaking -
McAfee ruled that Willis can continue to prosecute the former president and his co-defendants, but he has given the state multiple options to handle the case. All options involve Nathan Wade stepping away from the team.
“The prosecution of this case cannot proceed until the State selects one of two options,” McAfee wrote in his decision.
- “The District Attorney may choose to step aside, along with the whole of her office, and refer the prosecution to the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council for reassignment...
-Alternatively, (Special Assistant District Attorney) Wade can withdraw, allowing the District Attorney, the Defendants, and the public to move forward without his presence or remuneration distracting from and potentially compromising the merits of this case.”
https://pjmedia.com/chris-queen/2024/03/15/breaking-fani-willis-decision-n4927325
OBSERVATION - Fallout from this decisions will become clearer as the smart folk tear into the wording of the decision. At first glance it is a mixed bag of worms. But the judge cowardly refused to execute maximum judgement in the face of blatant perjury by both Willis and Wade.
***
Schumer’s sudden, hard line against Israel is reverberation today. This may signal a hard leftist turn given the recent growth of the ‘uncommitted’ campaign and the loss of progressive democrat enthusiasm for an administration that continually supports Israel. This may reflect democrat recognition of this being a signal of depressed voter turnout for Biden in November. This may broaden the internal conflict between old school, Israel supporting democrats and their leftist progressive wing.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol agents in the Tucson Sector continue to experience a spike in migrant apprehensions. So far this fiscal year, Tucson Sector agents apprehended more than 312,000 migrants in just over five months.
During at least the last eight weeks, agents in the Tucson Sector apprehended more than 11,000 migrants per week who illegally crossed the border between ports of entry, according to a social media post from Chief Patrol Agent John Modlin.
According to official and unofficial reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas, Tucson Sector agents apprehended more than 300,000 migrants this fiscal year, which began on October 1, 2023. This is up by nearly 170 percent from the same period one year earlier.
The apprehensions in the Tucson Sector represent approximately one-third of all migrant apprehensions by Border Patrol agents nationwide, according to an unofficial Border Patrol report reviewed by Breitbart Texas.
OBSERVATION - Crossing have continued to shift to the west following TX closure of the border.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian presidential election on March 17
Voting has begun in Russia’s presidential election, which is all but certain to hand Vladimir Putin another six years in power.
Ballots will be cast over three days, even though the result is not in doubt as he has no credible opponent.
Polling stations opened in the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia’s easternmost region, at 08:00 local time on Friday (20:00 GMT on Thursday) and will finally close in the westernmost Kaliningrad exclave at 20:00 on Sunday the 17th.
putin has already been in power in Russia longer than any ruler since Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
OBSERVATION - The results are a given, this only serves as eye wash for the world.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its own borders into neighboring Belarus, several hundred miles closer to NATO territory, Western officials confirmed to Foreign Policy, as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatens a wider military showdown with the alliance over its continued support for Ukraine.
The move, which Putin first announced in June of last year, is likely aimed at ramping up pressure on NATO’s eastern flank. It follows years of nuclear saber-rattling intended to scare the West into paring back its support for Ukraine, now in its third year of war against Russia’s invasion, though top NATO officials insist that the move doesn’t drastically change the nature of Russia’s military threats to NATO.
Arvydas Anusauskas, Lithuania’s defense minister, was the first top official within the NATO alliance to confirm the news of the deployment. He warned that the risks of Western inaction were high, citing the lackluster response in the West to Russia moving more nuclear weapons to the Kaliningrad Peninsula, which is bounded by Poland and Lithuania on either side.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/14/russia-nuclear-weapons-belarus-putin/
OBSERVATION - This seems to be a continuation of putin’s policy of “escalate to deescalate”, where the threats are ramped up and upon seeing the west back down, then deescalates. Talk from other NATO members, like France, indicate a growing willingness to use nukes against Russia should any expansion of the Ukraine war occur.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range. Slight chance of snow/rain showers in extended forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 27 Shahed drones. Russian army also launched 7 S-300/S-400 missiles at Kharkiv and Donetsk region and Kh-59 missile at Poltava region
Propaganda from the Legion suggests some tactical successes.
There are reports that people are leaving Belgorod. This is backed with some reality.The Bilhorod region is once again under attack. Since this morning, continuous shelling and drone attacks occur after the announcement by Russian insurgent forces that they would increase attacks.
A part of the center of Bilhorod is covered in smoke, cars are burning, after heavy shelling from Russian insurgents.
Legion forces have also claimed to have destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouses in Tyotkino,
Russian Volunteer Corps Chief of Staff Oleksandr, known as “Fortuna,” disclosed that their unit has penetrated “several dozen kilometers” into Russian territory and has captured prisoners. He said that the operation was planned for months.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims regaining full control over Kozinka village of Belgorod region. This follows rumors of a Legion air assault operations at the town.
Russian Territory –
Explosions at refinery in Polotnyany Zavod village of Kaluga , Russia, after drone strike. Russia claims 4 drones were shot down over Kaluga region.
Outlook —
The Legion’s foray into Russia is designed for one thing - propaganda directed towards the Russian elections. Just enough resources have been tossed into it to make it a real threat to Belgorod. Russian news keeping the action under hard wraps - as it is embarrassing to putin and corrodes his declarations that Russia is untouchable.
Same goes for the UAV attacks on Russian oil refineries. They are a big symbol of Russia’s inability to contain Ukraine and damages are piling up.
OTOH, increasing concern over Ukraine running out of all kinds of ammo. Their army is very successful in the past when fully armed, now are having to make due with a lot less against a foe that is working to overwhelm it by mass of bodies.
Belarus -
Belarus has reportedly deployed tanks near its border with NATO, while tensions between Russia and the strategic alliance continue to simmer amid the war in Ukraine.
The Belarusian military “mobilized reservists and kicked off major military maneuvers,” according to a report published by The Kyiv Post on Thursday. Troops and equipment including tanks from Belarus’ 19th Guards Mechanized Brigade were reportedly deployed near the country’s western border with NATO member country Lithuania.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said in a statement shared on social media that a military training exercise was taking place in a region that includes Oshmyany through April 5. Additional exercises were reportedly taking place in several other regions of Belarus, including some in areas not far from the border with Poland, another NATO member country.
OBSERVATION - Lithuania has one of the smaller military forces in NATO and as such a likely target for the Belarus army. The Belarus army has been doing a lot of training over the past couple years to make up for its poor rating. The past year, former Wagner personnel have been conducting a lot of the training, so that the readiness of the forces is in far better shape than the start of the Ukraine war. Further, Belarus army has fewer concerns about attacking Lithuania versus Ukraine.
Note too forces are training opposite of Poland.
Strategically, there is a strip of Polish/Lithuanian land that separates Kaliningrad from Belarus. This is one of the ‘land bridges’ putin eventually wants to control so that Russia forces can project power further to the west. The other ‘land bridge’ was to connect with Transnistria.
As for now, this continues to appear to be a large, readiness exercise. For Belarus to invade Lithuania (or even Poland for that matter) would generate a NATO Art 5 response that would go as far as to justify NATO entering Ukraine against Russia as well. Belarus has done a lot of training, but I don’t think we are at that end game yet.
Europe / NATO General –
Macron has been very outspoken regarding the movement towards a broad European war with Russia should Ukraine’s defense fail. His wartalk is being echoed by many in the EU/NATO.
***
Russia has been accused of jamming the satellite signal on an RAF plane carrying Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in its latest act of hostility.
The country’s latest act of hostility took place while Defence Secretary was returning from a visit to Poland.
He went with his team and a group of journalists to watch hundreds of British troops take part in NATO’s biggest exercise since the Cold War.
For roughly 30 minutes, the RAF aircraft’s GPS signal jammed and mobile phones could no longer connect to the internet as it flew near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hama released its hostage release/ceasefire proposal
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The proposal submitted by Hamas through Qatar for a deal to release hostages includes several stages - including one calling for a complete cessation of hostilities, as reported by the Reuters news agency.
According to the report, the first phase will include the release of women (including those Hamas defined as ‘soldiers’), children, the elderly, and male hostages who are ill. This is in exchange for between 700-1,000 Arab terrorists.
Hamas proposed that immediately after this stage a discussion would be started on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and setting a date for the withdrawal of IDF forces from the Strip.
In the second phase and subject to the progress of the discussions, all of the hostages remaining in Gaza would be released in exchange for hundreds and possibly even thousands of terrorists.
The War Cabinet will convene this afternoon and discuss Hamas’ response, after which the expanded cabinet will also convene.
The Prime Minister’s Office last night poured cold water on the Hamas proposal, stating, “Hamas continues making preposterous demands. An update on the issue will be brought tomorrow before the War Cabinet and the Political-Security Cabinet.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/386791
***
In a long speech on the floor yesterday Senate Majority Chuck Schumer called for the replacement of the current Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Times of Israel has posted the full text of Schumer’s remarks here. According to Schumer, Netanyahu is an obstacle to peace, the two-state final solution, and the source of all the other ills of the world.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Hamas reportedly killed the head of a local clan in Gaza City on March 13 likely as part of Hamas’ effort to reassert its authority in the northern Gaza Strip.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel security forces arrested at least 20 Palestinians from the West Bank last night, including former prisoners.
***
Israel’s police force said it will deploy thousands of officers across Jerusalem’s Old City for Ramadan’s first Friday prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, with tensions high amid the Gaza war.
“We are prepared for Friday prayers with more police officers. Thousands of them will be in the area of Temple Mount,” police spokeswoman Mirit ben Mayor told reporters, referring to the holy site upon which the mosque sits.
Hundreds of police officers had already been deployed in the Old City in since Ramadan began on Monday, she said.
Last week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Muslim worshippers would be allowed to access Al-Aqsa Mosque in the same numbers as in previous years during the first week of Ramadan.
“Every week there will be a situation assessment in terms of security and safety and a decision will be made accordingly,” it said.
Palestine Foreign Ministry: Israeli restrictions on prayer at Al-Aqsa are a spark to detonate the situation in the West Bank
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to isolate and eliminate remaining Hamas et al cells throughout Gaza.
Plans continue to move forward on entering Rafah to liquidate Hamas forces there. Rafah is the last stronghold of Hamas in Gaza.
Hamas’ hostage / cease fire offer is right on schedule. If you remember, they offered similar during previous Israeli stages in Northern and Central Gaza. It is a delay tool, especially in the face of an impending Israeli action into Rafah, where the last 8 or so intact battalions of Hamas are hiding, along with probably the remaining major leaders. Hamas wants to keep some force intact to facilitate its retaking of control of Gaza.
That retaking of control is shifting focus to the various clans of Gaza. Israel has already reached out to many in an effort for them to take over come civil control. Hamas sees that as a threat to their power. However, their attack on a key clan - especially in their weakened state - may blow up in their faces.
Clans in the Moslem world are very tightly knit. Osama ben Laden married into a powerful clan in Afghanistan knowing that any attack on him would net a very powerful defensive force. Time will tell how the interactions with the clans of Gaza pans out for either side.
Right now, Israel is unlikely to accept Hamas’ offer on many grounds and the ground movement into Rafah will soon happen.
One final item. The US democrat leadership appear to be making a hard 180 in regards to support to Israel. First the extension of sanction wavers to Iran, to the tune of $10 BILLION dollars. Second, the threat to restrict the use of US military supplies if Israel enters Rafah. US support of a forced two state solution and more sanctions of israelis in the West Bank. Now Chucky Schumer demanding that Israel stop everything and replace Netanyahu as the countries leader - right in the middle of a war of national survival. The fall out from Schumer’s statement will be reverberating for the next several days at least.
Central / South America General-
US State Department says it is not “actively planning” evacuation efforts for any Americans still in Haiti.
“Haiti has been a level four country with respect to our travel advisors since 2020. For four years we’ve been telling Americans do not go to Haiti.”
OBSERVATION - Once again, our country is leaving citizens out to dry as things hit the fan.
Misc of Note –
More fear mongering. An area off the coast of Washington state is being shaken by hundreds and hundreds of earthquakes. Scientists are saying that the quakes are centered around a large underwater volcano. The underwater volcano does not pose a threat at all, but if an enormous earthquake along the Cascadia Subduction Zone were to trigger a giant tsunami that slams into the west coast, that would be a historic disaster of epic proportions.
So the claim is that this an indication of potential trouble for the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
Take a deep breath folks. While I fully concur that the Cascadia subduction zone is a MAJOR threat to the Pacific NW and the rest of the west coast, volcanic activity, this activity will not trigger it in the short term.
The quakes and ‘volcano’ are centered on the Juan de Fuca Ridge - a spreading center. The eruption when it occurs will be similar to the ones in recent times in Iceland - fluid basaltic.
Tectonically, the spreading center is pushing the Juan De Fuca plate eastward under the continental US at the Cascadia subduction zone. The eruption and associate spreading are contributors to a much larger spreading of the whole ridge system.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB1jQ1GO.img?w=534&h=428&m=6
This fear mongering is much like the very periodic ones surrounding Yellowstone any time there is a seismic swarm recorded there. Mostly by poorly informed individuals who don’t put the whole picture together.
The Pacific NW and west coast is not ready for a magnitude 9 quake / tsunami - an it will hit at a time of its own choosing, like it did in 1700. Linking it directly to seismic and volcanic activity many miles away is stretching it.