Whoops, my post from yesterday is linked above.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guidelines committee meeting this week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Gay activists in Seattle have declared a “homosexual intifada.”
After another pro-Hamas/anti-Israel march and rally that took over city streets that Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell ceded, the extremists plastered their signage around downtown Seattle. That’s when we started seeing a new flyer showing two men with faces covered with keffiyeh while embracing in a kiss. The pink-hued message says “Homo-sexual Intifada” in all caps.
https://mynorthwest.com/3951404/rantz-seattle-activists-declare-homosexual-intifada/
OBSERVATION - A prime example of useful idiots. The LGBT group think that they found an ally, when in reality they are only going to be used - perhaps even as cannon fodder. Here in the US the enemy of my enemy principle is still engaged and one day the radical moslems will be tossing their LGBT allies off roofs.
Recently, the most violent sector of the LGBT community has been the Transtifa (Trans + Antifa) elements who’s violence last fall targeted those opposing transitions of youth/children. Recent mass shootings have involved over a half dozen trans shooters. With the Gaza war, the pro-hamas elements have provided the impetus for violent protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Discussions on the inter webs that the US is looking at increasing the number of carriers operating in the western Pacific from 2 to 5 in response to Chinese aggression.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Red Cross is not only screening applicants for their vax status but also requiring them to undergo additional scrutiny if they self-report COVID vaccination: “Have you EVER had a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine? If you answer YES to the question, please call 1-800-RED CROSS… before coming in to donate to determine if this will affect your eligibility.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation is that this is due to factors that the nRNA can transfer across to the receiver of the donation that cannot be filtered out. Yep, indicators that the jab is not as safe and effective as was advertised.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Calls for congress to reconvene early in order to vote on the Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid package. Doesn’t look like that is going to happen. Rumors of Johnson and biden meeting on this as well as border security.
***
The judgement on trump of nearly a half billion to be ponied up BEFORE an appeal can be made makes it really clear that this is a political judgment.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
They shifted biden to the short stairs into AF1 in order to keep him from stumbling up the long stairs. Well, in spite of a SS guy trying to prevent stumbles, biden stumbled twice on the short stairs.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Biden administration has secretly been slashing the number of illegal immigrants who must post bond to enter the United States in a policy of “releasing everyone,” according to a former top Department of Homeland Security official.
In revealing its policy under a Freedom of Information Act demand, the administration also showed that it is setting the price of bonds lower than during the Trump administration and requiring a near-record low number of immigrants to pay them.
“The Biden administration is dismantling the detention and bonds programs by simply releasing every illegal alien it can into the United States. And they’re not too concerned about ever locating them ever again. Just mass, lawless chaos without any attempt at actual management,” said Feere, the director of investigations with the Center for Immigration Studies.
OBSERVATION - Deliberate action to flood the country with illegals who are capable and very willing to commit crimes and wreck the immigration system.
***
Looking back on the anemic turnouts at pro-hamas protests over the weekend, it appears things may be losing traction to keep the rabble fired up. It will take something bigger at this stage to foment more large protests. Meanwhile, smaller efforts continue, targeting various individuals and events.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024,
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin: Russia categorically opposes the deployment of nuclear weapons in space.
The US has told allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year, per people familiar with the matter. - Bloomberg
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down another Russian Su-34 striker-bomber this morning. 7 aircraft in 7 days, valued at around $350 million in total.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia’s more aggressive use of fighter/bombers in support of ground forces is coming at a high cost, with the loss of more Su-34/35 airframes, 7 within the last week alone. Though on paper they have a fair number of these aircraft, reality is many are grounded due to lack of parts, meaning fewer combat ready aircraft.
I expect continued Russian offensive efforts at the 5 locations I expect Ukraine to make Russia pay dearly for every inch of ground they are forced to give up. If Ukraine is able to restore the supplies of artillery and ADA munitions, the Russian offensive will quickly grind to a halt.
I also expect Russia to start to unleash larger missile / drone attacks to take advantage of Ukrainian shortages in the ADA realm as well. A lot of targeting will be against civilian infrastructure (power and water), but others will be closer to the front lines to soften up deeper areas for quicker action.
Belarus -
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has warned that the world ‘has again come to the brink of the abyss’ and that there are legitimate concerns that a Third World War could erupt.
Vladimir Putin’s top ally said ‘we must be prepared as much as possible to neutralise risks and threats’ as he spoke at a meeting with senior officials in Minsk.
During the meeting that included National Intelligence and Law Enforcement Agencies across Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenko claimed that Polish and U.S. Intelligence Agencies are preparing “Provocations” against Civilian Centers in Poland which will then be Blamed on Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - Some are speculating that Lukashenko is telegraphing a false flag event to blame on Poland.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- US vetoed a Scty Council resolution to order a cease fire in Gaza
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The United States vetoed an Arab-backed U.N. resolution Tuesday demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in the embattled Gaza Strip.
The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13-1 with the United Kingdom abstaining. It was the third US veto of a Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.
***
Israel has identified hundreds of UN relief workers as also being members of Hamas combat units.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Two missiles were launched towards the Israeli Ruwaisat Al-Alam site in the Kafr Shuba hills in southern Lebanon
IAF conducted strikes deeper into Lebanon, targeting among others Hezbollah leadership and ammo dumps.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Three Israeli guided missiles targeted an apartment inhabited by Iranian militias in a building behind an Iranian school in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood in Damascus, Syria.
Reports of Israeli bombing targeting the Dimas area, northwest of Damascus, and the sound of explosions being heard in the vicinity of the capital.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Anti-aircraft guns at the American base in the Koniko field respond to an attack with drones launched by armed groups in Deir ez-Zor
Houthi continues firing at shipping in the Red Sea regions.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthis continue to become more aggressive in their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region. If the US doesn’t launch a massive strike - and over a considerable number of days - the chances are increasing of a major success by Houthi’s - hitting a US naval vessel. US impotency in stopping the Houthis is forcing even more ships to divert around Africa - increasing shipping times, and costs.
The increased success in Houthi targeting is likely attributed to Iranian vessels hovering around the same region. Taking out these ‘eyes’ would hamper Houthi targeting, but increase the threat of a more direct confrontation with Iran.
Bottom line - the US is losing the fight in the Red Sea.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vowed to bar US petroleum giant ExxonMobil from the waters off the oil-rich region of Essequibo, which Caracas claims from Guyana as its own.
The head of ExxonMobil in Guyana, Alistair Routledge, revealed plans this month for two exploratory wells off the coast of Essequibo, saying the company wanted to develop new sites in an area where there was no existing infrastructure.
“ExxonMobil is not entering this sea… they should know that,” Maduro said in televised remarks on Monday.
Caracas has long claimed the Essequibo region — which makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory — but has amped up its rhetoric since its neighbor began issuing licenses for oil companies to operate there.
Just after plans for the new wells were announced, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that ExxonMobil would “receive a proportional, forceful response” if drilling began.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela continues to build military bases near the Guyana border. It is only a matter of time before they invade in an effort to seize the western 2/3s of the country. Largely driven by recent resource discoveries like the oil in the region.
No post from me today - have an abundance of other things I’ve got to deal with today. Will begin the process of catching up tomorrow.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
At CPAC, El Salvador President Bukele issues a chilling warning about America turning into El Salvador. Central American illegals will drive violent crime / gangs in a manner similar to El Salvador prior to his crackdown.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is working with a left-wing advocacy group to boost voter turnout as part of President Joe Biden’s executive order directing federal agencies to get involved in elections.
The USDA worked directly with Demos, a New York-based group that helped draft Biden’s Executive Order 14019, according to records obtained by The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project. (The Daily Signal is Heritage’s news outlet.)
Biden signed his order on agencies and voter registration in March 2021. On Aug. 9, 2021, Demos’ Adam Lioz emailed USDA officials, many in the office of Secretary Tom Vilsack, under the subject line: “Demos Meeting on Voting Rights EO.”
***
Under the guise of protecting the “civil rights” of students, the Biden administration unveiled a new regulation purporting to force government schools nationwide to bow before all the invented “gender identities” and sexual perversions that now dominate the “education” system. The rule would also purport to overturn state laws banning males in girls’ sports.
The controversial mandate, which would apply to any government schools accepting federal funds, seeks to demolish Trump-era protections for girls — especially their privacy, sports, and ability to have sex-segregated spaces. If it ends up going through, government schools would supposedly be required to allow males in girls’ school bathrooms, locker rooms, showers, and sports.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Pharmacies across the country were reporting delays to prescription orders due to a cyberattack against one of the nation’s largest healthcare technology companies.
Change Healthcare, a company handling orders and patient payments throughout the U.S., first noticed the “cyber security issue” affecting its networks Wednesday morning on the East Coast.
“Change Healthcare is experiencing a network interruption related to a cyber security issue and our experts are working to address the matter. Once we became aware of the outside threat, in the interest of protecting our partners and patients, we took immediate action to disconnect our systems to prevent further impact,” Change Healthcare said in a statement.
****
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) were looking into an AT&T outage, and that the Federal Communications Commission was in touch with the company.
Kirby said the Department of Commerce faced some disruptions as a result of the outage but those were not “crippling.”
The FCC said it was investigating the incident, while the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is a unit of DHS, said it was working with AT&T to understand the cause.
Users of Verizon, T-Mobile and US cellular also faced disruptions, but they were more limited than the AT&T reports.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/outage/2024/02/22/id/1154612/
LATEST - AT&T said the hours long outage to its U.S. cellphone network Thursday appeared not to be the result of a malicious attack.
The outage knocked out cellphone service for thousands of its users across the U.S. starting early Thursday before it was restored.
“Based on our initial review, we believe that today’s outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network, not a cyber attack,” the Dallas-based company said.
OBSERVATION - ATT is trying to downplay its network loss. However, that so many other carriers were hit at the same time does suggest a cyber attack of some kind.
While solar flares can affect communication systems, it is highly unlikely that two X-flares yesterday contributed to the widely reported cell phone outages. The flares, while intense, did not cause a solar radiation storm. Moreover, the shortwave radio blackouts they did cause were too brief and too low in frequency to interfere with most cell phone communications.
The extent of the outages across multiple providers suggests an attack. Trying to deflect from that would be logical to prevent panic.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Chinese have become the second largest group entering the US in the San Diego sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
With the two year anniversary of the current Ukraine war (remember, it really started 10 years ago with the capture of Crimea) many have been trying to assess the cost to Russia to get where they are at today. The following is a summary that fits pretty well with other estimates.
Overall Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to February 15, 2024, are estimated as follows:
Personnel: Around 399,090
Tanks: 6,442
IFV (Infantry Fighting Armored Vehicles): 12,090
Artillery systems: 9,620
MLRS (Multiple launch rocket systems): 984
Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 671
Aircraft: 332
Helicopters: 325
UAV operational-tactical level: 7,404
Cruise missiles: 1,882
Warships/boats: 25
Submarines: 1
Vehicles and fuel tankers: 12,691
Special equipment: 1,524
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240222.aspx
These numbers, especially the combat personnel losses are slightly more conservative than others, but not by much. By all metrics, this war has been very costly for Russia and as markedly diminished its capabilities to press the fight into the Balkan regions or Eastern Europe.
***
Biden says the new sanctions against Russia “will target individuals connected to Navalny’s imprisonment as well as Russia’s financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and sanctions evaders across multiple continents. They will ensure Putin pays an even steeper price”
Logistics –
Iran has provided Russia with approx 400 ballistic missiles, including many from the Fateh-110 family, such as the Zolfaghar. In contrast with North Korean BMs, Iranian made ones are known to be considerably more accurate.
Economic Impact –
The United States has introduced a large-scale package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The sanctions will be directed against individuals associated with the imprisonment of Navalny, as well as against the Russian financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and individuals who evade sanctions on many continents.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 31 Shahed drones overnight. Russian army also launched 3 S-300 missiles, Kh-31P missile and 2 Kh-22 missiles
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut & Avdiivka.
A Russia milblogger was found dead after being ordered to remove a post where he states that an estimated 16,000 Russians were killed in the 4 month effort to seize Avdiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ukraine is continuing to give up ground as artillery shortages persist. This has created a significant swing of momentum in favor of Russian forces. Yet Ukraine is still inflicting severe losses on the Russian advances that could threaten them to stall before any significant objective can be obtained.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Officials in Transnistria will meet on Feb 28th supposedly to officially ask to be annexed by Russia.
The head of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, is convening a congress of deputies at all levels, most likely next week.
The congress may issue an appeal to Putin requesting the admission of Transnistria into Russia.
Such a risky move could lead to a military attack by Moldova and the Ukrainian army.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria poses a throne in the back of NATO - Romania particularly. Should they seek annexation and is granted (very likely), any moves by Moldova or NATO would bring Russian retaliation. The nature of that retaliation is uncertain given how deeply it is tied up in Ukraine, but could be enough of a deterrent to stop any actions.
Belarus -
The Minister of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, accused Ukraine of forming a strike group of 112.000-114.000 troops on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Roughly 17.000 would be part of the regular border defense.
OBSERVATION - Belarus has become very vocal of late. It seems that an effort to build up friction with Ukraine is underway. The possibility of a false flag is rising. Belarus’ military has been benefitting from a lot of training by former Wagner forces, which may have reached a point where they could be considered to be a threat. When the Ukraine war started, the Belarus forces were assessed to be the worst trained army in the region. That may no longer be the case.
Europe / NATO General –
The French ambassador to the U.S. warned a “real war is possible” for NATO countries on the border with Russia. Laurent Bili, speaking during a Washington Post online event Tuesday, connected the deterrence NATO provides in the current war between Russia and Ukraine to how the alliance deterred Soviet aggression after governments like Czechoslovakia and Poland during the Cold War.
Members “on the front line” bordering Russia or Ukraine, and France and Germany believe “real war is possible” in Europe again. For France, that means putting the nation on “a war footing” in defense spending and revitalizing its industrial base, he said.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Victims of the Hamas terror attack in Israel on October 7 announced Thursday that they have filed a federal lawsuit against the Associated Press (AP) for allegedly paying members of Hamas who also functioned as “stringer” photographers for the company.
The AP was forced to cut ties with one freelance photographer, Hassan Eslaiah, who was seen holding a grenade near the Gaza border during the attack, and who had earlier posed for a photograph with Gaza-based Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar.
Later, an AP freelancer was reported by the HonestReporting watchdog organization to have broadcast a live video, along with a Reuters freelance photographer, allegedly encouraging Gazans to participate in the October 7 attack while it was still ongoing.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
IDF captured more Hamas terrorists in the Khan Younis region as well as locating and destroying more bunkers and rocket launch points.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis announced that they targeted the Israeli port of Eilat with missiles and remotely piloted aircraft.
***
The head of the Houthi rebels in Yemen said Thursday attacks on ships in the Red Sea will escalate despite the U.S. military striking targets held by the Iranian-backed terror group.
“Operations in the Red and Arabian seas, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden are continuing, escalating, and effective,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on the group’s Al-Masirah channel, reported The Times of Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi recognize that the US forces have once again become a paper tiger and are ramping up their attacks. Until the US hits them in a strong manner, I expect that these attacks will follow their declaration and increase in both number and lethality.
Until the US decides it is going to take real action, the Houthi’s will continue to win.
Iran –
See Russia above - supplying ballistic missiles in addition to drones.