CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
At CPAC, El Salvador President Bukele issues a chilling warning about America turning into El Salvador. Central American illegals will drive violent crime / gangs in a manner similar to El Salvador prior to his crackdown.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is working with a left-wing advocacy group to boost voter turnout as part of President Joe Biden’s executive order directing federal agencies to get involved in elections.
The USDA worked directly with Demos, a New York-based group that helped draft Biden’s Executive Order 14019, according to records obtained by The Heritage Foundation’s Oversight Project. (The Daily Signal is Heritage’s news outlet.)
Biden signed his order on agencies and voter registration in March 2021. On Aug. 9, 2021, Demos’ Adam Lioz emailed USDA officials, many in the office of Secretary Tom Vilsack, under the subject line: “Demos Meeting on Voting Rights EO.”
***
Under the guise of protecting the “civil rights” of students, the Biden administration unveiled a new regulation purporting to force government schools nationwide to bow before all the invented “gender identities” and sexual perversions that now dominate the “education” system. The rule would also purport to overturn state laws banning males in girls’ sports.
The controversial mandate, which would apply to any government schools accepting federal funds, seeks to demolish Trump-era protections for girls — especially their privacy, sports, and ability to have sex-segregated spaces. If it ends up going through, government schools would supposedly be required to allow males in girls’ school bathrooms, locker rooms, showers, and sports.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Pharmacies across the country were reporting delays to prescription orders due to a cyberattack against one of the nation’s largest healthcare technology companies.
Change Healthcare, a company handling orders and patient payments throughout the U.S., first noticed the “cyber security issue” affecting its networks Wednesday morning on the East Coast.
“Change Healthcare is experiencing a network interruption related to a cyber security issue and our experts are working to address the matter. Once we became aware of the outside threat, in the interest of protecting our partners and patients, we took immediate action to disconnect our systems to prevent further impact,” Change Healthcare said in a statement.
****
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) were looking into an AT&T outage, and that the Federal Communications Commission was in touch with the company.
Kirby said the Department of Commerce faced some disruptions as a result of the outage but those were not “crippling.”
The FCC said it was investigating the incident, while the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which is a unit of DHS, said it was working with AT&T to understand the cause.
Users of Verizon, T-Mobile and US cellular also faced disruptions, but they were more limited than the AT&T reports.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/outage/2024/02/22/id/1154612/
LATEST - AT&T said the hours long outage to its U.S. cellphone network Thursday appeared not to be the result of a malicious attack.
The outage knocked out cellphone service for thousands of its users across the U.S. starting early Thursday before it was restored.
“Based on our initial review, we believe that today’s outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network, not a cyber attack,” the Dallas-based company said.
OBSERVATION - ATT is trying to downplay its network loss. However, that so many other carriers were hit at the same time does suggest a cyber attack of some kind.
While solar flares can affect communication systems, it is highly unlikely that two X-flares yesterday contributed to the widely reported cell phone outages. The flares, while intense, did not cause a solar radiation storm. Moreover, the shortwave radio blackouts they did cause were too brief and too low in frequency to interfere with most cell phone communications.
The extent of the outages across multiple providers suggests an attack. Trying to deflect from that would be logical to prevent panic.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Chinese have become the second largest group entering the US in the San Diego sector.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
With the two year anniversary of the current Ukraine war (remember, it really started 10 years ago with the capture of Crimea) many have been trying to assess the cost to Russia to get where they are at today. The following is a summary that fits pretty well with other estimates.
Overall Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022, to February 15, 2024, are estimated as follows:
Personnel: Around 399,090
Tanks: 6,442
IFV (Infantry Fighting Armored Vehicles): 12,090
Artillery systems: 9,620
MLRS (Multiple launch rocket systems): 984
Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 671
Aircraft: 332
Helicopters: 325
UAV operational-tactical level: 7,404
Cruise missiles: 1,882
Warships/boats: 25
Submarines: 1
Vehicles and fuel tankers: 12,691
Special equipment: 1,524
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20240222.aspx
These numbers, especially the combat personnel losses are slightly more conservative than others, but not by much. By all metrics, this war has been very costly for Russia and as markedly diminished its capabilities to press the fight into the Balkan regions or Eastern Europe.
***
Biden says the new sanctions against Russia “will target individuals connected to Navalny’s imprisonment as well as Russia’s financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and sanctions evaders across multiple continents. They will ensure Putin pays an even steeper price”
Logistics –
Iran has provided Russia with approx 400 ballistic missiles, including many from the Fateh-110 family, such as the Zolfaghar. In contrast with North Korean BMs, Iranian made ones are known to be considerably more accurate.
Economic Impact –
The United States has introduced a large-scale package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and the recent death of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The sanctions will be directed against individuals associated with the imprisonment of Navalny, as well as against the Russian financial sector, defense industrial base, procurement networks and individuals who evade sanctions on many continents.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 31 Shahed drones overnight. Russian army also launched 3 S-300 missiles, Kh-31P missile and 2 Kh-22 missiles
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut & Avdiivka.
A Russia milblogger was found dead after being ordered to remove a post where he states that an estimated 16,000 Russians were killed in the 4 month effort to seize Avdiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ukraine is continuing to give up ground as artillery shortages persist. This has created a significant swing of momentum in favor of Russian forces. Yet Ukraine is still inflicting severe losses on the Russian advances that could threaten them to stall before any significant objective can be obtained.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Officials in Transnistria will meet on Feb 28th supposedly to officially ask to be annexed by Russia.
The head of Transnistria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, is convening a congress of deputies at all levels, most likely next week.
The congress may issue an appeal to Putin requesting the admission of Transnistria into Russia.
Such a risky move could lead to a military attack by Moldova and the Ukrainian army.
OBSERVATION - Transnistria poses a throne in the back of NATO - Romania particularly. Should they seek annexation and is granted (very likely), any moves by Moldova or NATO would bring Russian retaliation. The nature of that retaliation is uncertain given how deeply it is tied up in Ukraine, but could be enough of a deterrent to stop any actions.
Belarus -
The Minister of Defense of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, accused Ukraine of forming a strike group of 112.000-114.000 troops on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. Roughly 17.000 would be part of the regular border defense.
OBSERVATION - Belarus has become very vocal of late. It seems that an effort to build up friction with Ukraine is underway. The possibility of a false flag is rising. Belarus’ military has been benefitting from a lot of training by former Wagner forces, which may have reached a point where they could be considered to be a threat. When the Ukraine war started, the Belarus forces were assessed to be the worst trained army in the region. That may no longer be the case.
Europe / NATO General –
The French ambassador to the U.S. warned a “real war is possible” for NATO countries on the border with Russia. Laurent Bili, speaking during a Washington Post online event Tuesday, connected the deterrence NATO provides in the current war between Russia and Ukraine to how the alliance deterred Soviet aggression after governments like Czechoslovakia and Poland during the Cold War.
Members “on the front line” bordering Russia or Ukraine, and France and Germany believe “real war is possible” in Europe again. For France, that means putting the nation on “a war footing” in defense spending and revitalizing its industrial base, he said.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Victims of the Hamas terror attack in Israel on October 7 announced Thursday that they have filed a federal lawsuit against the Associated Press (AP) for allegedly paying members of Hamas who also functioned as “stringer” photographers for the company.
The AP was forced to cut ties with one freelance photographer, Hassan Eslaiah, who was seen holding a grenade near the Gaza border during the attack, and who had earlier posed for a photograph with Gaza-based Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar.
Later, an AP freelancer was reported by the HonestReporting watchdog organization to have broadcast a live video, along with a Reuters freelance photographer, allegedly encouraging Gazans to participate in the October 7 attack while it was still ongoing.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
IDF captured more Hamas terrorists in the Khan Younis region as well as locating and destroying more bunkers and rocket launch points.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis announced that they targeted the Israeli port of Eilat with missiles and remotely piloted aircraft.
***
The head of the Houthi rebels in Yemen said Thursday attacks on ships in the Red Sea will escalate despite the U.S. military striking targets held by the Iranian-backed terror group.
“Operations in the Red and Arabian seas, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden are continuing, escalating, and effective,” Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in a televised speech on the group’s Al-Masirah channel, reported The Times of Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi recognize that the US forces have once again become a paper tiger and are ramping up their attacks. Until the US hits them in a strong manner, I expect that these attacks will follow their declaration and increase in both number and lethality.
Until the US decides it is going to take real action, the Houthi’s will continue to win.
Iran –
See Russia above - supplying ballistic missiles in addition to drones.
That is no doubt part of the plan to destroy America.
They will use the satellite outage as as a perceived threat to increase government action when it was the 2 solar flares within 24 hours that crippled and destroyed satellites while in orbit.
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. ~~ At least someone is trying to make the world a better place.
Thanks for the scorecard.
GO! GO! THERE GOES TOKYO!
GO GO GODZILLA!
The New York Times should be running this story on their front page.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
A group called Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, which has partnered with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is now targeting memes.
Gavi republished an opinion piece from The Conversation, which claimed memes may have a “sinister function” and “form part of a highly sophisticated strategy to spread and monetise health disinformation.”
“Memes may appear trivial, but they should be taken seriously,” the statement continues. “Dismissing them as harmless jokes is to grossly underestimate their influence – and bolsters their power to spread potentially harmful health messages.”
The group added that memes have been used to “vilify the government and social institutions, portraying them as corrupt and politically compromised. Anti-government sentiments were used to support several claims.”
“These included claims that the government is corrupt and tyrannical; that vaccines are unsafe and ineffective and that the government is using vaccines as a form of state surveillance, for control and profit.”
Explaining the threat of “disinformation” present in memes, the article claimed, “Memes are powerful propagators of disinformation because they allow influencers to claim plausible deniability. Under the protective guise of humour and satire, memes can evade fact checkers and content moderators while promoting anti-vaccine myths and unauthorised treatments.”
The Gates Foundation has given millions of dollars to Gavi since 2000.
OBSERVATION - Once again - the goal is censorship of all views and opinions that go against the globalist narrative. Memes included. Of course gates is behind this. . . .
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
(FO) Radical anarchists published a guide to geolocating government data centers by pinging the Internet Protocol (IP) address of government websites, gathering domain registration information, and traceroute commands to track network connections. The guide is designed to help anarchists locate government data centers likely for direct actions like vandalism and arson.
OBSERVATION - Expect more targeted vandalism if things get spun up this election season.
***
The Great Sort is under way, as normal people move to red states and liberals move to blue states. (That last is hypothetical and hasn’t actually been observed.) When massive numbers began leaving blue states like California and New York for red states like Texas and Florida, many conservatives worried that those blue staters might bring their bad voting habits with them. Happily, that doesn’t seem to have happened.
This Wall Street Journal story is headlined: “Blue-State Residents Streamed Into South Carolina. Here’s Why It Stayed Ruby Red.” But it deals with more than one state:
A Wall Street Journal analysis of census data found that a third of [South Carolina’s] new residents between 2017 and 2021 hailed from blue states and a quarter from red ones, according to census data. …
Yet the new arrivals are disproportionately Republican. Estimates from the nonpartisan voter file vendor L2 suggest about 57% of voters who moved to South Carolina during that time are Republicans, while about 36% are Democrats and 7% are independents. That places them roughly in line with recent statewide votes in South Carolina.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/red-states-getting-redder.php
OBSERVATION - This has been a concern of some of us in reliably red states as the hordes of moving vans come in. I saw earlier data indicating similar to this report from a couple years ago. Regionally and nationally, this divergent migration is creating an ever growing rift in the country at a state/regional level, a rift that should something like the TX - Fed standoff in TX blow up, the fault line between red and blue could severely rupture.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
The typical U.S. household needed to pay $213 more a month in January to purchase the same goods and services it did one year ago because of still-high inflation, according to new calculations from Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
Americans are paying on average $605 more each month compared with the same time two years ago and $1,019 more compared with three years ago, before the inflation crisis began.
OBSERVATION - Hard dose of reality that the regime is trying to play down under its ‘happy days are here again’ bidenomics bilge.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A high-altitude balloon of unknown origin and purpose was spotted over the Western United States Friday afternoon, CBS News reported.
Speaking on a condition of anonymity, sources said the balloon was moving east on the jet stream, passing over Colorado earlier in the day. The sighting was enough of a concern that the military sent aircraft to investigate.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/china-spy-balloon/2024/02/23/id/1154761/
OBSERVATION - Here we go again.
***
Aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) pulled into its homeport on Friday, U.S. 3rd Fleet announced.
Vinson arrived at Naval Air Station North Island in California this morning local time after operating for four months in the Indo-Pacific. Carrier deployments are typically six months long, but can get extended. Vinson does not have plans to immediately enter a scheduled maintenance availability and is still certified for national tasking, USNI News understands.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Nasty batch of the nori-virus hitting the NE.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Intense battles on the law fare front -
- The special counsel Jack Smith’s federal cases, look like a complete bust. The one in the DC federal district court under Judge Chutkan is unraveling on its obvious lack of merit, its misapplication of the statutes cited, and Mr. Smith’s illegitimate appointment under the rules governing special counsels.
- New York Attorney General Letitia James won the first round with an utterly truthless case, decided despotically by Judge Engoron without a trial, that, for now, has created awful tactical problems for Mr. Trump. He may adroitly overcome the $355-million judgment to bring his appeal, and at some point up the ladder of review, Ms. James will be subject to the disgrace and punishment she deserves
- The Nathan Wade / Fani Willis soap opera continues to unravel as new phone evidence shows the two in cahoots far earlier than they admitted to in court. In the first eleven months of 2021, Willis and Wade exchanged 2,000 phone calls with one another, according to the affidavit. They also texted each other nearly 12,000 times.
On other political issues - battle lines being drawn again over Ukraine support vs Border closure demands. These will bash up against the expiration of the CR on March 1. Right now I’d place odds on a govt shut down as I don’t think Johnson is going to buck the conservative wing who is ready to vacate the seat again.
Democrats continue to try to rebuild biden’s image that he is physically and mentally capable of continuing as president. This time trying to paint him as being sexually vigorous.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Nothing further on the cell outages of yesterday, as the narrative seems that AT&T screwed up a software update.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Local news reports growing with crimes and murder caused by illegals - some of which have been deported numerous times. Situation being made worse by soft justice returning these thugs to the streets instead of jailing or deporting.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
See Russian loss of a critical A50 AWAC jet under Ukraine.
Logistics –
Partisan reports note that the replacement tanks being brought in by Russia predominately consist of T-62 and T54/55 series tanks. Indicates that stocks of the more modern T72/T80 varieties are essentially gone.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian Air Defense Forces, claim to have shot down another Russian A-50U “Mainstay” Airborne-Early Warning and Control Aircraft today over the Sea of Azov, with footage showing several missiles having struck the aircraft causing it to disintegrate and crash in the Krasnodar Krai Region of Southwestern Russia.
Russian sources claimed that the Beriev A-50 has been shot down by their own forces, Tracking of the plane placed it over Russian territory east of the Azov sea, further east of where the other plane was shot down. Video shared online shows the moment the plane appears to be shot down in the air, as well as a missiles being launched from apparent Russian territory against the plane.
According to the UP source, the A-50 was shot down by the S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system. S-200 has a range of up to 300 Km. Aircraft location when hit learns the needle towards a friendly fire incident. Otherwise, Ukrainian air defenses are now able to down aircraft operating roughly 200km (124 miles) behind the front.
Who ever shot it down doesn’t matter as much as the loss of another of these systems is a major blow to Russia. It has very few to begin with and that number is even less that are flight ready. Ukraine last claimed to have shot down an A-50 on 14 January. At that time, the UK’s ministry of defense said that Russia probably had six operational A-50s in service.
Additionally, its crew is huge and not replaceable
Add to Russia’s air woes - Reports that at least one if not two high-end Russia’s Su-34 figher-bombers have been shot down.
Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk came under Ukraine drones attack.. It is the largest metallurgic plant in Russia . Massive fires are reported. The plant produces approximately 15 - 20% of the steel used in Russia.
Avdiivka -
Russia attempted to push its successes at Avdiivka a bridge too far and found out that Ukraine had established strong defensive positions - losing considerable numbers of soldiers and equipment in the process.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia continues to press the offensive also multiple axis. Their progress is so far been very limited by a combination of stiff Ukrainian resistance and poorly trained and equipped Russian forces. Russian milbloggers note that putin has placed a demand that Russia secure Luhansk Provence in the next 4 weeks. At the current rate, that will not be any where close to obtainable unless Ukraine defenses completely collapse.
Russia loss of the A50 places them in a very difficult situation. In addition to early warning, the planes also control ground attack and CAP operations over most of southern and eastern Ukraine. This creates, again, a major vulnerability in the Russian air defense network as well as providing CAS to ground units. At dispute is just who shot it down. Many OSINT analysts are leaning towards a friendly fire scenario, based on video footage and logistical / tactical challenges to move ADA assets close enough to the front to bring the plane in range.
Noted above is that the loss includes the trained crew - very hard to replace. Replacement aircraft will likely have to come from other military districts - reducing Russia’s national level protections.
Russia has an abundance of strategic level targets that is impossible for it to protect all of them. Ukraine’s so far successful campaign of taking out ADA related systems will only stress Russia even more - especially later this year when Ukraine goes live with F16s.
Belarus -
Increasing OSINT concerns of a false flag event that could be designed to bring Belarus into the Ukraine war.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israeli PM Netanyahu has presented his first official “day after” plan for the Gaza Strip once the war there ends, saying Israel will keep security control over all Palestinian areas and make reconstruction of Gaza dependent on its demilitarization.
***
During the meeting in Paris between the representatives of the United States, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, a new and updated outline for the deal for the release of hostages was agreed upon - this is what two sources familiar with the contents of the talks said on Saturday.
No word on Hamas acceptance of the framework, though it is believed that Qatar is in contact with them and negotiating on their behalf.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Intensity of fighting and location vary on a day by day basis as IDF encounters pockets of Hamas resistance and works to eliminate them.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued strike/counter strike actions along the Lebanese border. Israel does continue to target significant Hezbollah targets such as ammo facilities and command/control centers as part of its retaliatory strikes.
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Friday, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted the headquarters of the Upper Galilee Regional Council in Kiryat Shmona with two drones.
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The Israeli Navy’s fleet of missile boats carried out “extensive” exercises over the past week, the IDF said on Friday, as the military prepares for potential war in the north while Israel warns that its patience for a diplomatic solution is running out.
The IDF said the Navy drills simulated fighting in the northern maritime theater, and some exercises were carried out alongside the Israeli Air Force, including the 193rd Squadron which operates the AS565 Panther helicopters, primarily used for missions at sea.
Among the scenarios that were drilled included foiling drone attacks, aerial rescue operations from vessels, and refueling the missile boats at sea, the IDF said.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli security forces stormed the village of Madama, south of Nablus. Confrontations broke out with Israeli security forces in the town of Jayyus, east of Qalqilya
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi are setting up what appears to be a system where shipping pays them money to permit their vessels to pass thru the Red Sea without being attacked.
US military planners reevaluating their strategy to suppress Houthi attacks.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The Houthi continue to run tighter OODA loops than the US, and are winning the ‘war’. US mil planners are hamstrung over the regime’s paranoia over angering Iran that extensive proactive airstrikes are not being allowed.
CAPs are doing a yeoman task identifying Houthi drone and ballastic launch systems and hitting them, since they are highly mobile and small footprint. But what is necessary is massive and extensive hits on ammo dumps, command and control targets. biden et al are too cowardly to make that call, so Red Sea shipping continues to be endangered.
Misc of Note –
The large cell phone outages of yesterday has stirred up appropriate concerns in the preparedness community concerning alternative comms in the event of an emergency. I don’t have a lot of time here to break it all down but here are a few thoughts and options.
You will need a back up means to communicate with family and support group elements. How far apart are they? should be your first question as distance plays big in the type of asset available to use.
Small, walkie talkie type units found at Walmart/sporting good stores are good for relatively short ranges - generally less than a mile (don’t believe their 35 - 45 mile claims). These are low power devices,usually with 0.5 watt output. They contain GMRS designated frequencies that are permitted to be used due to low power . Gmrs to be discussed later
Next comes the trusty, dusty CB radio. At 4 watts, it can justifiably reach 4 - 6 miles, depending heavily upon the quality of the antenna and location. SSB (single side band) can effectively increase power to and equivalent of 8-12 watts with ranges over 10 miles. Add an illegal linear amplifier and it can reach across the country under proper conditions. It is in the 11 meter HF band.
GMRS is the latest golden child. FCC offers essentially a no-test license applicable to the whole family for $35. With it you can legally use radios with up to 35 watts of power. It also has a growing network of repeater stations that can spread the communications range to nearly 100 miles depending on the repeater location. This gives near - ham radio comms power, but has a very limited frequency spectrum available for use.
Ham radios - the golden standard - are the best at all ranges of comms requirements. There used to be a morse code test requirement - but that is no longer the issue. Entry level Technical licenses are easy to get. Technicians can operate on 70 cm, 2 meter and 10 meter bands at power up to 1500 watts!. the 70cm/2 meter bands have an abundance of club operated repeaters across the country. Here in my corner of the Redoubt, the club repeater I can use covers a huge swath of SW Montana (at 5 watt radio power!). The 10 meter band Technicians are authorized to us has regional area coverages - again with as much as 1500 watts allowed.
More advanced Ham licenses permit more HF bands to be used that enable global communications.
Take time to figure out the distance needs of your family/group and work towards establishing comms to meet that need. One size doesn’t fit all.