Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Medicaid’s new guidelines, which allow states to direct a portion of funding to new health care initiatives such as rent or utilities, mirror the World Economic Forum’s guidelines for “health equity;” ideas that have been decades in the making.
The Biden administration’s Medicaid guidelines recently expanded to allow states to devote up to 3% of their Medicaid spending to experimental subsidies so long as they add in their own funding and evaluate the outcomes.
Guidance comes out of the Biden administration’s U.S. Playbook to Address Social Determinants of Health, which lists housing security, food security, education access, and “healthy environment” as the top causes for inequal outcomes.
The push for “health equity” comes at the same time the World Economic Forum has published guidelines for health care and “urban transformation.
The study lists a series of “social determinants” of health care, all of which are included in the U.S. playbook.
“Socioeconomic status, education, neighborhood and physical environment, employment, and social support networks,” as well as “access to health care” are listed as the determining factors for a citizen’s health.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/medicaid-who-wef-framework-marmot
OBSERVATION - This will do next to nothing to improve health care, but only expand the greater social welfare system and waste. Note how the deep state bureaucrats utilize globalist standards in a way that bypasses congressional oversight (not that they have done such a cheery job lately anyway). Also notice just how loosely the concept of health care is applied. The medical community and WHO have already implied that global warming and gun control fall within their purview for such health care.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
See influx of Chinese illegals under “Illegals”
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Less than a year out from the 2024 election, Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in hypothetical matchups across several key swing states. As many of Biden’s top allies worry about the president’s reelection chances, officials see his State of the Union address as a turning point that could help stunt talks about the 81-year-old’s fitness for office, Axios reported.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/02/19/team-joe-biden-state-union-campaign-2024-hail-mary/
OBSERVATION - They think they can recreate his 2023 SOTU. However, is mental faculties have been plummeting of late. Big roll of the dice.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
(FO) According to Biden officials, the Biden White House is planning an EO that would claim to attempt to slow the flow of illegal immigrants over the southern border It could announced prior to the State of the Union on 7 March. Initial reports suggest that the proposed EO will very unlikely stop the immigration crisis and will likely include policies that incentivize illegal immigration as the Senate border bill did.
OBSERVATION - Attempt to be made to show the republicans as lax on border issues.
***
Michigan State is now asking residents to house illegals in their homes
This call echos similar from other states. Some commentators are asking when it will be made mandatory for citizens to start housing illegals.
****
Mayor Eric Adams has decided to cut the police force by 6000 officers in order to pay for illegals. The result is NY police officers will be cut by 1/5, or 13.5%, by postponing the next 5 Academy classes, bringing officers below 30,000, down from 36,000. These are the numbers we saw in the 80s and 90s. This is being done to house and feed anonymous, unvetted illegal aliens from around the world.
OBSERVATION - Crime by illegals is skyrocketing. Criminal cartel from Venezuela has set up shop and is terrorizing citizens, as well as organizing ties to MS-13. NYC is fast becoming unlivable.
***
The number of Chinese illegal immigrants crossing the southern border illegally has skyrocketed by 4,000 percent since 2021.
Fox News’ Bill Melugin, reporting from the southern border, recounted that his Spanish speaking skills are “not doing me a whole lot of good down here” in Jacumba, California, as “we’re getting a massive explosion of Chinese nationals crossing the border.”
Earlier in the year, it was revealed that the Biden administration had reduced the vetting process for illegal immigrants from China.
An April 2023 email to around 500 Border Patrol agents instructed the agents to reduce the number of interview questions for Chinese illegal immigrants who are apprehended.
The list of questions was cut down from 40 to just five. This allowed a fast-track of the release of Chinese illegal immigrants into the interior of the United States and has made it more difficult for CBP agents to identify national security threats.
OBSERVATION - There can be only one reason for this - biden seeks to have the country overthrown by China aided illegals.
China –
Taiwan has accused China’s coast guard of triggering “panic”, after six Chinese officials briefly boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat.
They checked the ship’s route plan, certificate and crew licenses, and left half an hour later.
It comes less than a week after a Chinese fishing boat was pursued by Taiwan’s coast guard in the same area. The boat later capsized, killing two.
Beijing later said it would step up patrols in the Kinmen archipelago.
Kinmen lies just 3km(1.86 mi) away from China’s south-eastern coast, placing it on the frontline of tensions between China and Taiwan.
OPBSERVATION - Tensions have been growing as these coast guard interactions have been increasing. Kinmen Island is low hanging fruit to a Chinese takeover, and may be used as a trial run since Taiwan would be unable to defend it militarily.
North/South Korea –
Japan –
The Japanese were protesting recently about Muslim immigration, as it seems associated with violence, ingratitude & sexual assaults. During the anti invasion protest. These Muslims shouted “Japanese will die out” whilst jeering and abusing the frustrated natives.
OBSERVATION - Japan doesn’t allow inflow of migrants, these moslems are present as workers. Japan has been experiencing a lot of islamic based mayhem lately and the society is not taking that kindly.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Ukraine –
10 years ago Russia started its war against Ukraine by capturing Crimea.
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Intense fighting around Robotyne and eastern front areas. Reports indicate that Russia is continuing its brute force and ignorance attacks straight into Ukrainian kill zones and are suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian pull backs seem at the moment to be due to consolidating onto more defensible and prepared positions.
However, Ukraine is still suffering severe shortages of ammo, particularly artillery, which it needs to fend off these mass attacks more efficiently.
Russia for its part, seems to have commanders that are trying to duplicate the success at Avdiivka, but at this rate not doing as well. I expect continued vicious fighting along the five axises of attack - Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Continued intense ground combat in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Belarus -
Lukashenko said that two divisions of Iskander-M missile systems, including tactical nuclear weapons, have been deployed in the country. He also revealed the introduction of the latest Polonez-M anti-aircraft missile system with a range of up to 300 km. Additionally, he announced the incorporation of two S-400 anti-aircraft missile divisions.
OBSERVATION - Haven’t heard much from putin’s puppet in a while.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Reports Sinwar and some hostages may have escaped to Egypt.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu - I”n recent days, we are witnessing pressure of a new kind, represented by an attempt to impose the establishment of a Palestinian state, and this will constitute a threat to the existence of the State of Israel.”
***
Saudi media reports that Israel has information and assessments that indicate that Hamas leaders have escaped into Egypt.
The potential fugitives include both Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed as well as other senior figures in the organization.
The fugitives are thought to have escaped along with other Hamas officials through tunnels between Rafah and Sinai.
Along with the fear that top Hamas officials have escaped Israeli forces, there is a growing concern that they have taken Israeli hostages with them.
***
Biden is pushing for a United Nations vote on a “temporary ceasefire” in a break with the Israeli government as its troops prepare for an assault on the city, in south Gaza.
In a draft resolution, the US warns that a ground offensive into the city, where more than one million Palestinians are sheltering, would have “serious implications for regional peace and security”.
NOTE - Many see this as the start of a 180 turn against Israel by biden.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israeli newspaper: The army withdraws the last reserve brigade from Gaza as the end of the Khan Yunis operation approaches. Active duty forces remain.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
Heavy airstrikes reportedly conducted in the Sidon area in Southern Lebanon.
The airstrikes were allegedly carried out by Israeli aircraft on the village of Al-Ghaziyeh “and the outskirts of the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp” according to Roya News. Massive secondary explosions noted.
****
The French newspaper Libération reported that according to its investigation, the tunnel network dug by the Hezbollah terrorist organization is even more extensive and sophisticated than the tunnel system created by Hamas under the Gaza Strip.
The tunnels dug by Hezbollah over the last 30 years are hundreds of kilometers in total length and descend to a depth of up to 80 meters. The tunnels were dug through stone, with the aid of North Korean technology.
According to the report, Hezbollah’s tunnels extend underneath Lebanon’s borders with Syria and Israel and violate the sovereign territory of both countries.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/385472
OBSERVATION - IDF has reported that Hamas fighters apparently have lost all contact with senior leadership - this may account for it.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli forces entered the towns of Al-Khader and Husan in the Bethlehem District, south of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed Houthis sunk a British ship in the Red Sea on Monday and attacked two US ships in the Gulf of Aden.
According to reports: “The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) reported Monday that the Houthis sunk a ship traveling in the Red Sea , south of the port city of Mukha in Yemen. It is the the first time since the start of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza that a crew had to abandon their ship because of the Houthis.”
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM north of Djibouti, Djibouti. The Master reports that the vessel has been hit by an Uncrewed Aerial System resulting in superficial damage to the accommodation superstructure. The crew are reported to be safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
Pentagon intelligence assessment: “The Houthis maintained their offensive capabilities despite the American and British strikes”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Belgian Foreign Ministry: 26 European Union member states demand that Israel not carry out military action in Rafah
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
It is very likely that Sinwar and his brother Mohammed along with a human shield of hostages excepted Gaza via smuggling tunnels from Rafah into Egypt. Israel yesterday reported that Hamas fighters have lost all contact with their senior leadership and were struggling to find out who was in charge and what their new orders were.
Egypt has been making efforts to prevent tunneling, Hamas has proved to be able to stay one step ahead of it. The big question is - Is Egypt actively seeking to find these fugitives. Egypt has no love for Hamas as they have been trouble makers in that country as well.
The US is on the verge of major losses in the Red Sea region and needs to ramp up strikes on Houthi logistics and infrastructure in a major way. Currently, US efforts are appearing to be more and more impotent in stopping Houthi attacks on shipping. However, the biden regime is so paranoid about escalating the conflict, especially with Iran involved that they appear to be paralyzed form stronger actions. Houthi see weakness- as I’ve said time and again - as an opening to be even more aggressive.
Israel in reference to Ramadan, give a window as to when they may well enter Rafah by. International efforts to prevent that continue to ramp up. biden is even threatening moves in the UN to sanction Israel in a 180 turn on US policy. The younger, more pro-hamas marxists in the democrat party - an age group biden desperately needs for any chance of victory in November - has been clamoring for the end of US support of Israel, and biden’ may be bending towards that end.
Misc of Note –
I’ve said that I started screening the many inter web sites for early warnings of actions that would ultimately affect the safety and security of my family. This is a never ending process, intel folks refer to as the OODA loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.
Application of this principle assists in identifying the most serious threats and helps prioritize one’s efforts to mitigate effects. However, the speed at which things have been spinning apart over the last year has left me panting trying to keep up.
Over the past 15 years I’ve seen my major threats shift from mostly act of God (natural events) to that of societal collapse. And even that threat has gotten complicated in that there are many, significant triggering events that could start the dominos falling. For example -
- Economic collapse (severe recession / depression)
Secondary effects - Rioting, looting, bank failures, shortages of essentials
Tertiary effects - opportunistic terror attacks on infrastructure, initiation of wars.
CW2, open fighting and rebellion against a turned tyrannical govt
Secondary affects - Economic collapse (see above),
Tertiary affects - Martial law, low level warfare, internal conflict in active duty forces
Just a couple I’ve been looking at. Societal collapse’s triggers are becoming more hair triggered especially as we approach the Nov elections (and likely beyond). They all point to one disturbing fact - there is a big storm coming, so big that its whole ramifications are hard to not only define but accept (contra to normalcy bias) as a component of future planning.
Whoops, my post from yesterday is linked above.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guidelines committee meeting this week.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Gay activists in Seattle have declared a “homosexual intifada.”
After another pro-Hamas/anti-Israel march and rally that took over city streets that Seattle mayor Bruce Harrell ceded, the extremists plastered their signage around downtown Seattle. That’s when we started seeing a new flyer showing two men with faces covered with keffiyeh while embracing in a kiss. The pink-hued message says “Homo-sexual Intifada” in all caps.
https://mynorthwest.com/3951404/rantz-seattle-activists-declare-homosexual-intifada/
OBSERVATION - A prime example of useful idiots. The LGBT group think that they found an ally, when in reality they are only going to be used - perhaps even as cannon fodder. Here in the US the enemy of my enemy principle is still engaged and one day the radical moslems will be tossing their LGBT allies off roofs.
Recently, the most violent sector of the LGBT community has been the Transtifa (Trans + Antifa) elements who’s violence last fall targeted those opposing transitions of youth/children. Recent mass shootings have involved over a half dozen trans shooters. With the Gaza war, the pro-hamas elements have provided the impetus for violent protests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Discussions on the inter webs that the US is looking at increasing the number of carriers operating in the western Pacific from 2 to 5 in response to Chinese aggression.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Red Cross is not only screening applicants for their vax status but also requiring them to undergo additional scrutiny if they self-report COVID vaccination: “Have you EVER had a Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine? If you answer YES to the question, please call 1-800-RED CROSS… before coming in to donate to determine if this will affect your eligibility.”
OBSERVATION - Speculation is that this is due to factors that the nRNA can transfer across to the receiver of the donation that cannot be filtered out. Yep, indicators that the jab is not as safe and effective as was advertised.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Calls for congress to reconvene early in order to vote on the Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan aid package. Doesn’t look like that is going to happen. Rumors of Johnson and biden meeting on this as well as border security.
***
The judgement on trump of nearly a half billion to be ponied up BEFORE an appeal can be made makes it really clear that this is a political judgment.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
They shifted biden to the short stairs into AF1 in order to keep him from stumbling up the long stairs. Well, in spite of a SS guy trying to prevent stumbles, biden stumbled twice on the short stairs.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Biden administration has secretly been slashing the number of illegal immigrants who must post bond to enter the United States in a policy of “releasing everyone,” according to a former top Department of Homeland Security official.
In revealing its policy under a Freedom of Information Act demand, the administration also showed that it is setting the price of bonds lower than during the Trump administration and requiring a near-record low number of immigrants to pay them.
“The Biden administration is dismantling the detention and bonds programs by simply releasing every illegal alien it can into the United States. And they’re not too concerned about ever locating them ever again. Just mass, lawless chaos without any attempt at actual management,” said Feere, the director of investigations with the Center for Immigration Studies.
OBSERVATION - Deliberate action to flood the country with illegals who are capable and very willing to commit crimes and wreck the immigration system.
***
Looking back on the anemic turnouts at pro-hamas protests over the weekend, it appears things may be losing traction to keep the rabble fired up. It will take something bigger at this stage to foment more large protests. Meanwhile, smaller efforts continue, targeting various individuals and events.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024,
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin: Russia categorically opposes the deployment of nuclear weapons in space.
The US has told allies that Russia could deploy a nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year, per people familiar with the matter. - Bloomberg
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down another Russian Su-34 striker-bomber this morning. 7 aircraft in 7 days, valued at around $350 million in total.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia’s more aggressive use of fighter/bombers in support of ground forces is coming at a high cost, with the loss of more Su-34/35 airframes, 7 within the last week alone. Though on paper they have a fair number of these aircraft, reality is many are grounded due to lack of parts, meaning fewer combat ready aircraft.
I expect continued Russian offensive efforts at the 5 locations I expect Ukraine to make Russia pay dearly for every inch of ground they are forced to give up. If Ukraine is able to restore the supplies of artillery and ADA munitions, the Russian offensive will quickly grind to a halt.
I also expect Russia to start to unleash larger missile / drone attacks to take advantage of Ukrainian shortages in the ADA realm as well. A lot of targeting will be against civilian infrastructure (power and water), but others will be closer to the front lines to soften up deeper areas for quicker action.
Belarus -
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has warned that the world ‘has again come to the brink of the abyss’ and that there are legitimate concerns that a Third World War could erupt.
Vladimir Putin’s top ally said ‘we must be prepared as much as possible to neutralise risks and threats’ as he spoke at a meeting with senior officials in Minsk.
During the meeting that included National Intelligence and Law Enforcement Agencies across Belarus, President Aleksandr Lukashenko claimed that Polish and U.S. Intelligence Agencies are preparing “Provocations” against Civilian Centers in Poland which will then be Blamed on Russia and Belarus.
OBSERVATION - Some are speculating that Lukashenko is telegraphing a false flag event to blame on Poland.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- US vetoed a Scty Council resolution to order a cease fire in Gaza
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The United States vetoed an Arab-backed U.N. resolution Tuesday demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in the embattled Gaza Strip.
The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 13-1 with the United Kingdom abstaining. It was the third US veto of a Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.
***
Israel has identified hundreds of UN relief workers as also being members of Hamas combat units.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Two missiles were launched towards the Israeli Ruwaisat Al-Alam site in the Kafr Shuba hills in southern Lebanon
IAF conducted strikes deeper into Lebanon, targeting among others Hezbollah leadership and ammo dumps.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Three Israeli guided missiles targeted an apartment inhabited by Iranian militias in a building behind an Iranian school in the Kafr Sousa neighborhood in Damascus, Syria.
Reports of Israeli bombing targeting the Dimas area, northwest of Damascus, and the sound of explosions being heard in the vicinity of the capital.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Anti-aircraft guns at the American base in the Koniko field respond to an attack with drones launched by armed groups in Deir ez-Zor
Houthi continues firing at shipping in the Red Sea regions.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthis continue to become more aggressive in their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region. If the US doesn’t launch a massive strike - and over a considerable number of days - the chances are increasing of a major success by Houthi’s - hitting a US naval vessel. US impotency in stopping the Houthis is forcing even more ships to divert around Africa - increasing shipping times, and costs.
The increased success in Houthi targeting is likely attributed to Iranian vessels hovering around the same region. Taking out these ‘eyes’ would hamper Houthi targeting, but increase the threat of a more direct confrontation with Iran.
Bottom line - the US is losing the fight in the Red Sea.
Venezuela -
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has vowed to bar US petroleum giant ExxonMobil from the waters off the oil-rich region of Essequibo, which Caracas claims from Guyana as its own.
The head of ExxonMobil in Guyana, Alistair Routledge, revealed plans this month for two exploratory wells off the coast of Essequibo, saying the company wanted to develop new sites in an area where there was no existing infrastructure.
“ExxonMobil is not entering this sea… they should know that,” Maduro said in televised remarks on Monday.
Caracas has long claimed the Essequibo region — which makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory — but has amped up its rhetoric since its neighbor began issuing licenses for oil companies to operate there.
Just after plans for the new wells were announced, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that ExxonMobil would “receive a proportional, forceful response” if drilling began.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela continues to build military bases near the Guyana border. It is only a matter of time before they invade in an effort to seize the western 2/3s of the country. Largely driven by recent resource discoveries like the oil in the region.