Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guideline committee meeting this week.
****
Rich globalist reaching into the US to censor views and opinions.
A green nonprofit that is indirectly funded by a foreign billionaire is pressuring broadcasters to drop advertisements that criticize the Biden administration’s massive electric vehicle (EV) agenda.
Climate Power wrote to numerous broadcasters this week demanding that they stop airing American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturers (AFPM)-funded advertisements in swing state markets that rail against President Joe Biden’s plans to impose widespread EV adoption in the coming years. The charitable organization affiliated with Hansjorg Wyss, a Swiss health care mogul and billionaire philanthropist, donates millions of dollars to the Fund for a Better Future, which was the fiscal sponsor for Climate Power until 2023, a spokesperson for Climate Power previously told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
AFPM launched its seven-figure ad campaign designed to highlight and criticize the administration’s EV policies on Tuesday. The ads, which describe Biden’s policies as an EV mandate, are airing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Montana and Washington, D.C.
Climate Power’s warning letter to local affiliates states that the broadcasters “must remove these ads from the air immediately” because “there is no pending federal ‘car ban,’ and to claim otherwise is patently false and intentionally misleading.” The letter suggests that AFPM’s ads could be in violation of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rules, and instructs the broadcasters to contact Climate Power — an Internal Revenue Service-recognized 501(c)4 that is spending more than $80 million to tout Biden’s climate policies ahead of the 2024 presidential election — to confirm that the ads are no longer running on their stations.
Because Wyss is a Swiss citizen, he is not allowed by law to directly donate to American political candidates or political committees, but the activities of his nonprofit and associated organizations have allowed him to quietly become one of the most influential individual donors in American politics today, according to The Associated Press.
In May 2021, Americans for Public Trust — a government watchdog and transparency group — filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that Wyss, his nonprofits and affiliated organizations have “violated fundamental compliance and transparency rules” governing political spending by foreign nationals.
OBSERVATION - Censorship - that is the tool the globalists are increasing relying upon to force their narrative on the world.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Members of the so-called neo-Nazi group, known as the “Blood Tribe,” were seen proudly displaying swastika flags during a march in downtown Nashville, Tennessee.
The event, which occurred on Saturday, saw these individuals donning red T-shirts emblazoned with ‘Blood Tribe’ on the back, as they paraded through the city’s heart.
Founded in 2020 by Christopher Pohlhaus, a former Marine, Blood Tribe has since been a subject of controversy and scrutiny.
Pohlhaus, speaking to a reporter in Florida over the summer, revealed a surprising stance in the political landscape.
During questioning, the “Nazi” leader admitted he was a Biden supporter.
“My vote is useless. I think Biden’s better than Trump ’cause he sends rockets to Ukraine,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Many view this group, as well as “Patriot Front” as pseudo organizations manned by federal agents. However, the rise of these groups is a natural response to the govt endorsed anti-white actions and black groups with racist agendas. Just more evidence that any CW2 scenario that goes hot is going to be very ugly.
***
Here the news that I misplaced yesterday -
African migrants & immigrants from Eritrea in Charlotte, N.C. are rioting & attacking police. The riot coincides with Eritreans in the Netherlands also setting fires and assaulting police. Warring Eritrean factions have taken their violence to the countries they claim asylum in.
OBSERVATION - Eritrea’s here are not the only group with multiple sects having brought their sectarian violence here with them.
***
Pro-hamas elements were busy over the weekend. The pro-Hamas militants blocked numerous streets in the downtown Seattle core. They started off this afternoon at Westlake Park, flooded Pike Place Market, marched past the Amazon Spheres, and are now causing more traffic disruptions in Belltown.
Some violence was noted, but I’ve not seen any info on arrests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson CSG held port call in Hawaii.
USS Roosevelt CSG at Guam
USS Eisenhower on station in the Red Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Truckers boycott of NYC is expected to begin today. Will it gain traction?
With congress in recess, most political activity is being directed towards election matters. All heck is going to hit the fan when it reconvenes later this month.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
A secret service agent is now being posted at the ‘short stairs’ to AF1 to assist biden up the stairs and avoid the multiple stumbling incidents that have occurred over the past several years.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
China’s cyber attacks have grown to a ‘scale greater than we’d seen before’, the FBI director has advised amid fears that US infrastructure is under threat.
Christopher Wray gave the grave warning as intelligence chiefs and politicians met at the Munich annual security conference on Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
He said Beijing’s plan to secretly plant technology inside the US critical infrastructure has become a significant threat to national security.
Wray cited Volt Typhoon, the moniker given to the Chinese hacking network that infiltrated the US last year, but said it’s only the ‘tip of the iceberg.’
Under ‘Volt Typhoon’ Beijing’s military have burrowed into more than 20 major suppliers in the last year alone including a water utility in Hawaii, a major West Coast port and at least one oil and gas pipeline, analysts revealed weeks ago.
They have bypassed elaborate cyber security systems by intercepting passwords and log-ins unguarded by junior employees, leaving China ‘sitting on a stockpile of strategic’ vulnerabilities.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13098111/China-hack-infrastructure-FBI-warning.html
OBSERVATION - China’s asymmetrical warfare doctrine will definitely come into play if/when they move on Taiwan.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Illegals more and more are generating more crime of all flavors (larceny, murder, etc).
China –
The Philippines announces that China has started using cyanide fishing to ‘intentionally destroy’ the Scarborough Shoal fishing grounds for Filipino fishermen.
The shoal belongs to the Philippines according to international law but China claims it as its own.
Phillipines –
See “China “ above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Under review - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
See “Europe / NATO General” Below regarding Russian threats toward Norway
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Moscow will fire nuclear weapons at Washington and other Western capitals if it is forced to give up the Ukrainian territory it has taken over, Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has warned, according to a Daily Mail report on Sunday. He emphasized that “the West should not think that in such a scenario the leadership of Russia will ‘tremble in its hand’ in pushing the nuclear button.”
OBSERVATION - Medvedev has been making nuclear attack threats regularly, especially since Russia started its war with Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
4 Shahed drones were shot down overnight. Explosions reported near Kremenchuk, Kropivnitsky and Poltava - eastern Ukraine.
Russian troops are attacking in 5 directions at once, while Ukraine lacks weapons and soldiers - New York Times
Russians are attacking simultaneously in Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Map at the link below
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGrqjDWW0AAPMG7?format=jpg&name=medium
Initial reports from this Russian offensive are mixed for Russia. Zaporizhzhia (Robotyne). The defense forces defeated yesterday’s attempt! 18/30 units of the involved equipment were destroyed, ~70 occupants were killed, 80 were wounded. Russians were driven back to their previous positions. Follow on attacks, Ukrainian Forces are claimed to have now withdrawal from defensive positions to the south and west of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region following a significant assault by Russian mechanized infantry with the support of tactical air and armor; Russian ground troops appear to have entered at least the outskirts of the Town.
West of Bakhmut, Russians are attacking Ivanivske. Heavy battles are taking place. Earlier today, a combined mechanized attack on Bohdanivka, a bit north of Ivanivske, was repelled.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, two more Russian fighter planes have been shot down, two Su-34s and Su-35S. This makes 6 Russian fighter jets destroyed in 3 days.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Army has struck a large Russian oil depot near Makiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The reports of extensive Russian operations in the areas noted above indicate that Russia has finally kicked off its winter/spring offensive. Two key items of note -
- 1. Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka and are pressing the CAS in these other areas.
- 2. The attacks seem to be much more organized than previous Russian attacks of the past year.
However, as noted in the attacks towards Robotyne and even Avdiivka, they are still suffering from poor tactical actions - mass charges across open areas into kill zones. So far the key reason for their success is the apparent lack of Ukraine artillery support due to ammo shortages.
Russian CAS is at a cost, losing 6 modern fighter bombers in 2-3 days. Russia only has so many of these flight worthy due to parts shortages and war losses.
Ukraine is facing a larger Russian army, with a resumed artillery advantage and more aggressive CAS. I don’t see things changing until Ukraine gets substantially rearmed with artillery ammo.
Europe / NATO General –
Russia issues threats against Norway over “sovereignty issues” in Svalbard
Russian Deputy PM Yuri Trutnev compares the situation there for Russians with Ukraine:
“Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country & the right to speak Russian”
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
- Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel expects the fight in Gaza to last another 6-8 months.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The Israeli government announces the agreement on the return of residents of Sderot and towns adjacent to Gaza, starting at the beginning of next March.
****
Netanyahu says Israel doesn’t recognize debate in Hague over ‘occupation’ of West Bank
“Israel does not recognize the legitimacy of the discussion at the International Court of Justice in the Hague regarding the ‘legality of the occupation,’ a move designed to harm Israel’s right to defend itself against existential threats,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
“The discussion in the Hague is part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the political settlement without negotiation. We will continue to repel this attempt, and the government and the Knesset are united in rejecting this unacceptable trend.”
***
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Saturday called for Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to be barred from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on March 10. “It is forbidden to allow residents from the Palestinian Authority to enter Israel in any way. We cannot take chances and risks,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X.
****
Hamas is looking for a successor for Yahya Sinwar as communications with the Gaza chief broke down completely, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Sunday situational assessment.
“Hamas has no trust in its commanders,” Gallant said in a visit to the IDF’s Southern Command. “Hamas’s Gaza branch returns no answer - there are no leaders on the field to speak with.
“This means there is an auction happening to decide who runs Gaza...[Currently,] there is no one in control, and there is no one leading operations.”
****
Israel will launch an offensive in Rafah by Ramadan unless Hamas frees all hostages, said Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz.
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Israel’s delay may be attributed to moving hundreds of thousands of non-combatant out of Rafah and into expanded facilities being built north of the town at the Al-Mawasi ‘humanitarian area’
Link below to map.
****
Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the UN agency for “Palestinian refugees”, accused Israel on Saturday of aiming to “destroy” the organization.
In an interview with the Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, Lazzarini claimed that Israel has a “long-term political goal” of eliminating UNRWA.
“At the moment, we are dealing with an expanded, concentrated Israeli campaign, which is aimed at destroying UNRWA,” Lazzarini charged.
On Friday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told foreign reporters that Israel has found intelligence that more than 30 of UNRWA’s employees actively participated in the massacre, and assisted in the kidnapping of civilians and soldiers.
****
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Jerusalem expects intense fighting to continue in Gaza for another six to eight weeks, including in Rafah city, before scaling back the war effort, Reuters reported on Monday.
“Military chiefs believe they can significantly damage Hamas’ remaining capabilities in that time, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations,” the report stated, citing two Israeli officials and two regional officials familiar with the strategy.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi shot down an American drone, MQ9, in Al-Hudaydah Governorate, western Yemen .
The U.S. Navy announces that the Houthis have for the first time tried to attack US vessels in the Red Sea with an unmanned underwater drone (UUV). The drone was spotted and destroyed before it got anywhere close to the ships.
A significant fire is reported to be burning aboard the Belize-Flagged Commercial Shipping Vessel, M/V Rubymar after it was struck earlier by a Houthi Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile while transiting north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea. Reports that the crew was forced to abandoned ship after vessel was struck.
CENTCOM: Feb. 17 Summary of Red Sea activities – Between the hours of 3:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (Sanaa time), Feb. 17, CENTCOM successfully conducted five self-defense strikes against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel (UUV), and one unmanned surface vessel (USV) in Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. This is the first observed Houthi employment of a UUV since attacks began in Oct.
***
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed Monday’s decision and posted on social media platform X, formerly Twitter: “Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests.”
The EU-led mission, called Aspides, the ancient Greek word for shield, will involve sending three European warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the leaders of major American Jewish Organizations to pressure Hamas to release the Israeli hostages by pressing its sponsor Qatar to exert its influence on the terror group.
“I urge you to press Qatar to press Hamas, because we want our hostages released,” Netanyahu said in a speech to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (CoP), held in Jerusalem on Sunday.
NOTE - Qatar has been ‘hosting’ the senior leadership of Hamas for many years now. The three Hamas leaders have a combined net worth in the tens of billions of dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi have become more aggressive in their attacks over the past couple days. As long as the US does minimal interdiction, they will continue to press their attacks. The introduction of a unmanned drone submarine will complicate matters - making detection difficult as well as hits at ship waterlines increase the chance of sinking vessels.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Reports of a resurgent Al Qaeda reestablishing bases and training in country.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Medicaid’s new guidelines, which allow states to direct a portion of funding to new health care initiatives such as rent or utilities, mirror the World Economic Forum’s guidelines for “health equity;” ideas that have been decades in the making.
The Biden administration’s Medicaid guidelines recently expanded to allow states to devote up to 3% of their Medicaid spending to experimental subsidies so long as they add in their own funding and evaluate the outcomes.
Guidance comes out of the Biden administration’s U.S. Playbook to Address Social Determinants of Health, which lists housing security, food security, education access, and “healthy environment” as the top causes for inequal outcomes.
The push for “health equity” comes at the same time the World Economic Forum has published guidelines for health care and “urban transformation.
The study lists a series of “social determinants” of health care, all of which are included in the U.S. playbook.
“Socioeconomic status, education, neighborhood and physical environment, employment, and social support networks,” as well as “access to health care” are listed as the determining factors for a citizen’s health.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/medicaid-who-wef-framework-marmot
OBSERVATION - This will do next to nothing to improve health care, but only expand the greater social welfare system and waste. Note how the deep state bureaucrats utilize globalist standards in a way that bypasses congressional oversight (not that they have done such a cheery job lately anyway). Also notice just how loosely the concept of health care is applied. The medical community and WHO have already implied that global warming and gun control fall within their purview for such health care.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
See influx of Chinese illegals under “Illegals”
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Less than a year out from the 2024 election, Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in hypothetical matchups across several key swing states. As many of Biden’s top allies worry about the president’s reelection chances, officials see his State of the Union address as a turning point that could help stunt talks about the 81-year-old’s fitness for office, Axios reported.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/02/19/team-joe-biden-state-union-campaign-2024-hail-mary/
OBSERVATION - They think they can recreate his 2023 SOTU. However, is mental faculties have been plummeting of late. Big roll of the dice.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
(FO) According to Biden officials, the Biden White House is planning an EO that would claim to attempt to slow the flow of illegal immigrants over the southern border It could announced prior to the State of the Union on 7 March. Initial reports suggest that the proposed EO will very unlikely stop the immigration crisis and will likely include policies that incentivize illegal immigration as the Senate border bill did.
OBSERVATION - Attempt to be made to show the republicans as lax on border issues.
***
Michigan State is now asking residents to house illegals in their homes
This call echos similar from other states. Some commentators are asking when it will be made mandatory for citizens to start housing illegals.
****
Mayor Eric Adams has decided to cut the police force by 6000 officers in order to pay for illegals. The result is NY police officers will be cut by 1/5, or 13.5%, by postponing the next 5 Academy classes, bringing officers below 30,000, down from 36,000. These are the numbers we saw in the 80s and 90s. This is being done to house and feed anonymous, unvetted illegal aliens from around the world.
OBSERVATION - Crime by illegals is skyrocketing. Criminal cartel from Venezuela has set up shop and is terrorizing citizens, as well as organizing ties to MS-13. NYC is fast becoming unlivable.
***
The number of Chinese illegal immigrants crossing the southern border illegally has skyrocketed by 4,000 percent since 2021.
Fox News’ Bill Melugin, reporting from the southern border, recounted that his Spanish speaking skills are “not doing me a whole lot of good down here” in Jacumba, California, as “we’re getting a massive explosion of Chinese nationals crossing the border.”
Earlier in the year, it was revealed that the Biden administration had reduced the vetting process for illegal immigrants from China.
An April 2023 email to around 500 Border Patrol agents instructed the agents to reduce the number of interview questions for Chinese illegal immigrants who are apprehended.
The list of questions was cut down from 40 to just five. This allowed a fast-track of the release of Chinese illegal immigrants into the interior of the United States and has made it more difficult for CBP agents to identify national security threats.
OBSERVATION - There can be only one reason for this - biden seeks to have the country overthrown by China aided illegals.
China –
Taiwan has accused China’s coast guard of triggering “panic”, after six Chinese officials briefly boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat.
They checked the ship’s route plan, certificate and crew licenses, and left half an hour later.
It comes less than a week after a Chinese fishing boat was pursued by Taiwan’s coast guard in the same area. The boat later capsized, killing two.
Beijing later said it would step up patrols in the Kinmen archipelago.
Kinmen lies just 3km(1.86 mi) away from China’s south-eastern coast, placing it on the frontline of tensions between China and Taiwan.
OPBSERVATION - Tensions have been growing as these coast guard interactions have been increasing. Kinmen Island is low hanging fruit to a Chinese takeover, and may be used as a trial run since Taiwan would be unable to defend it militarily.
North/South Korea –
Japan –
The Japanese were protesting recently about Muslim immigration, as it seems associated with violence, ingratitude & sexual assaults. During the anti invasion protest. These Muslims shouted “Japanese will die out” whilst jeering and abusing the frustrated natives.
OBSERVATION - Japan doesn’t allow inflow of migrants, these moslems are present as workers. Japan has been experiencing a lot of islamic based mayhem lately and the society is not taking that kindly.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Ukraine –
10 years ago Russia started its war against Ukraine by capturing Crimea.
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Intense fighting around Robotyne and eastern front areas. Reports indicate that Russia is continuing its brute force and ignorance attacks straight into Ukrainian kill zones and are suffering heavy losses. Ukrainian pull backs seem at the moment to be due to consolidating onto more defensible and prepared positions.
However, Ukraine is still suffering severe shortages of ammo, particularly artillery, which it needs to fend off these mass attacks more efficiently.
Russia for its part, seems to have commanders that are trying to duplicate the success at Avdiivka, but at this rate not doing as well. I expect continued vicious fighting along the five axises of attack - Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Continued intense ground combat in the Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Belarus -
Lukashenko said that two divisions of Iskander-M missile systems, including tactical nuclear weapons, have been deployed in the country. He also revealed the introduction of the latest Polonez-M anti-aircraft missile system with a range of up to 300 km. Additionally, he announced the incorporation of two S-400 anti-aircraft missile divisions.
OBSERVATION - Haven’t heard much from putin’s puppet in a while.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Reports Sinwar and some hostages may have escaped to Egypt.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu - I”n recent days, we are witnessing pressure of a new kind, represented by an attempt to impose the establishment of a Palestinian state, and this will constitute a threat to the existence of the State of Israel.”
***
Saudi media reports that Israel has information and assessments that indicate that Hamas leaders have escaped into Egypt.
The potential fugitives include both Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed as well as other senior figures in the organization.
The fugitives are thought to have escaped along with other Hamas officials through tunnels between Rafah and Sinai.
Along with the fear that top Hamas officials have escaped Israeli forces, there is a growing concern that they have taken Israeli hostages with them.
***
Biden is pushing for a United Nations vote on a “temporary ceasefire” in a break with the Israeli government as its troops prepare for an assault on the city, in south Gaza.
In a draft resolution, the US warns that a ground offensive into the city, where more than one million Palestinians are sheltering, would have “serious implications for regional peace and security”.
NOTE - Many see this as the start of a 180 turn against Israel by biden.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Israeli newspaper: The army withdraws the last reserve brigade from Gaza as the end of the Khan Yunis operation approaches. Active duty forces remain.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
Heavy airstrikes reportedly conducted in the Sidon area in Southern Lebanon.
The airstrikes were allegedly carried out by Israeli aircraft on the village of Al-Ghaziyeh “and the outskirts of the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp” according to Roya News. Massive secondary explosions noted.
****
The French newspaper Libération reported that according to its investigation, the tunnel network dug by the Hezbollah terrorist organization is even more extensive and sophisticated than the tunnel system created by Hamas under the Gaza Strip.
The tunnels dug by Hezbollah over the last 30 years are hundreds of kilometers in total length and descend to a depth of up to 80 meters. The tunnels were dug through stone, with the aid of North Korean technology.
According to the report, Hezbollah’s tunnels extend underneath Lebanon’s borders with Syria and Israel and violate the sovereign territory of both countries.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/385472
OBSERVATION - IDF has reported that Hamas fighters apparently have lost all contact with senior leadership - this may account for it.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Israeli forces entered the towns of Al-Khader and Husan in the Bethlehem District, south of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran-backed Houthis sunk a British ship in the Red Sea on Monday and attacked two US ships in the Gulf of Aden.
According to reports: “The United Kingdom’s Maritime Trade Operations Agency (UKMTO) reported Monday that the Houthis sunk a ship traveling in the Red Sea , south of the port city of Mukha in Yemen. It is the the first time since the start of Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza that a crew had to abandon their ship because of the Houthis.”
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 60NM north of Djibouti, Djibouti. The Master reports that the vessel has been hit by an Uncrewed Aerial System resulting in superficial damage to the accommodation superstructure. The crew are reported to be safe and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call.
Pentagon intelligence assessment: “The Houthis maintained their offensive capabilities despite the American and British strikes”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Belgian Foreign Ministry: 26 European Union member states demand that Israel not carry out military action in Rafah
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
It is very likely that Sinwar and his brother Mohammed along with a human shield of hostages excepted Gaza via smuggling tunnels from Rafah into Egypt. Israel yesterday reported that Hamas fighters have lost all contact with their senior leadership and were struggling to find out who was in charge and what their new orders were.
Egypt has been making efforts to prevent tunneling, Hamas has proved to be able to stay one step ahead of it. The big question is - Is Egypt actively seeking to find these fugitives. Egypt has no love for Hamas as they have been trouble makers in that country as well.
The US is on the verge of major losses in the Red Sea region and needs to ramp up strikes on Houthi logistics and infrastructure in a major way. Currently, US efforts are appearing to be more and more impotent in stopping Houthi attacks on shipping. However, the biden regime is so paranoid about escalating the conflict, especially with Iran involved that they appear to be paralyzed form stronger actions. Houthi see weakness- as I’ve said time and again - as an opening to be even more aggressive.
Israel in reference to Ramadan, give a window as to when they may well enter Rafah by. International efforts to prevent that continue to ramp up. biden is even threatening moves in the UN to sanction Israel in a 180 turn on US policy. The younger, more pro-hamas marxists in the democrat party - an age group biden desperately needs for any chance of victory in November - has been clamoring for the end of US support of Israel, and biden’ may be bending towards that end.
Misc of Note –
I’ve said that I started screening the many inter web sites for early warnings of actions that would ultimately affect the safety and security of my family. This is a never ending process, intel folks refer to as the OODA loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act.
Application of this principle assists in identifying the most serious threats and helps prioritize one’s efforts to mitigate effects. However, the speed at which things have been spinning apart over the last year has left me panting trying to keep up.
Over the past 15 years I’ve seen my major threats shift from mostly act of God (natural events) to that of societal collapse. And even that threat has gotten complicated in that there are many, significant triggering events that could start the dominos falling. For example -
- Economic collapse (severe recession / depression)
Secondary effects - Rioting, looting, bank failures, shortages of essentials
Tertiary effects - opportunistic terror attacks on infrastructure, initiation of wars.
CW2, open fighting and rebellion against a turned tyrannical govt
Secondary affects - Economic collapse (see above),
Tertiary affects - Martial law, low level warfare, internal conflict in active duty forces
Just a couple I’ve been looking at. Societal collapse’s triggers are becoming more hair triggered especially as we approach the Nov elections (and likely beyond). They all point to one disturbing fact - there is a big storm coming, so big that its whole ramifications are hard to not only define but accept (contra to normalcy bias) as a component of future planning.
