So many of these items/events are now straddling two or more categories. I’m trying to place them in the most appropriate one and referencing the other(s). This just demonstrates that things are becoming crazier as well as how interconnected things are becoming. Something happens in one area has quick and direct affects in another.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Germany announces wide-ranging plans to restrict the speech, travel and economic activity of political dissidents, in order to better control the “thought and speech patterns” of its own people
The plan put forth by Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD), is outlined in a 16-page Interior Ministry paper on “Resolutely Combating Right-Wing Extremism: Using the Instruments of Defensive Democracy.”
Faeser and her fellow political enforcers have such a wide-ranging, fluid understanding of what “right-wing extremism” constitutes, that the label can be deployed against basically anybody. The Interior Ministry paper claims that “The aim of right-wing extremists is to abolish liberal democracy and reshape our society according to their nationalist, racist and anti-pluralist ideas.”
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/germany-announces-wide-ranging-plans
OBSERVATION - A continuation of a global trend to now only attempt to counter any speech that this contrary to the “narrative”, but now there is an increasing push to criminalize such speech, all in the name to preserve “democracy”.
IN RELATED - A law was passed in France on Wednesday that could criminalize resistance to mRNA treatment. Anyone who advises against mRNA or other “medical treatments” that are “ obviously suitable” for treatment based on the current state of medical knowledge can in future be imprisoned in France^
for up to three years or receive a fine of up to 40,000 euros.
***
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus has issued a new warning about the likelihood of Disease X breaking out, telling global world leaders it is “a matter of when, not if” a new pathogen and pandemic will strike.
Tedros told attendees at the World Government Summit in Dubai earlier his week he gave a similar warning in 2018 that a pandemic was likely to hit, and he was proven right with the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus.
Complaining that the world is still ill-prepared for a new pandemic, Tedros once again touted the urgent need for a global treaty to be agreed upon by May.
OBSERVATION - The underlying threat of an impending outbreak of this 20x (how do they know this) as lethal pathogen is imminent and global forces working within govts laying the groundwork for more repressive measures than with wuhan.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Expansion on yesterday’s post.
Abbott on Friday announced that the Lone Star State will build a military base along the Rio Grand at the border city of Eagle Pass.
Spanning 80-acres, “Forward Operating Base Eagle” will house upwards of 1,800 Texas National Guard soldiers supporting Operation Lone Star, and will be expandable to house 2,300. Texas Maj. Gen. Thomas Suelzer said the camp will have 300 beds by mid-April, and will add another 300 beds every month after that.
“Because of the magnitude of what we’re doing, because of the need to sustain and actually expand our efforts of what we’re doing, it’s essential that we build this base camp for the soldiers.”
***
Long-standing tensions in the Eritrean diaspora across the globe appear to have hit a breaking point recently, with violence sparking at several Eritrean-themed festivals between festival-goers and Eritrean protestors who say the events provide support and funds to a repressive regime.
Most recently, rioting in The Hague broke out on Saturday night, after fighting started between rival groups during a meeting of the Eritrean community. The meeting had been organized by pro-government Eritreans at the Opera business centre, although the centre described it as a New Year’s party. Opponents of the regime then turned up and the fighting broke out.
The fighting is the latest outbreak of violence at Eritrean events in Europe. Similar riots occurred in Stuttgart in September 2023, and Giessen several months earlier.
OBSERVATION - These events are directly applicable to here in the US, as these illegals pour in, they bring their various ethnic and political squabbles with them. In my data searches yesterday, I found reports of a similar riot occurring in the US on the same day. (lost the reference). The increasing potential for ethnic fighting in the US within and between groups of illegals will add another layer to the chaos of a hot CW2 scenario as they seek to settle old scores as well as try to carve out territory / resources for themselves.
IN RELATED - Islamic imans here in the US are increasingly calling for moslem domination of the country and imposition of shariah law and jinza fees. We’ve had these calls in lesser measure for decades now. What has changed is the massive influx of moslems coming illegally into the country and the leftist support of anti-Israel/pro-hamas protests of late. Already, some communities were massive numbers of Somali’s were imported have begun to peripherally enforce islamic legal concepts on non-moslems. Again, this is developing into a new factor in any CW2 scenario where these growing moslem dominated areas could seize the opportunity to break off and other moslem influenced regions to seize power as well.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Economy-
Experts are sounding alarms that the distressed US commercial real estate market could trigger a new banking crisis, if default rates on commercial mortgages rise sharply.
Some $929 billion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024, or 20 percent of the $4.7 trillion total outstanding debt, according to recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Disturbingly, about 14 percent of all CRE loans, and 44 percent of office loans, appear to be ‘underwater,’ with current property values that are less than the outstanding loan balances, according to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
‘If nothing changes — if interest rates remain elevated and property values do not improve — we do view defaults at the rate of the Great Recession, and in fact even higher, as quite a possibility,’ one of the co-authors, Columbia Business School professor Tomasz Piskorski, told DailyMail.com.
If default rates on CRE loans jumped to 10 percent, the study estimates that 231 US banks, with aggregate assets of $1 trillion, would see the market value of their assets fall below the value of their customer deposits.
That situation could spur panicked customers to withdraw their uninsured deposits, in the same kind of rapid bank run that triggered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last year.
OBSERVATION - These are big default numbers and could totally slam the idea of a soft ‘landing’ for the economy. Secondary effects will rip through the banking system affecting other areas as well as banks struggle to recover from the hits.
A very big storm could break out later this year.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Study came out saying we have too many general/flag officers and should be pared down.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Truckers are discussing the implementation of a boycot of shipping loads to NYC to protest the recent judgement against Trump. A high percentage of truckers are loyal to trump and there is sufficient anger out there over the judgement. The truckers are reportedly beginning their boycott this Monday. How much traction it gains is yet to be seen, however, NYC relies on imported / trucked supplies and any significant reduction in shipments will have a big impact.
***
Related - Legal experts analyzed what they called “breathtaking” civil penalties against former President Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, former Trump Organization Comptroller Jeffrey McConney and ex-CFO Allen Weisselberg – warning other corporations based in the Empire State may realize they could suddenly be put out of business by the state on a political whim.
Former Bush White House press secretary Ari Fleischer said “[Y]ou just say goodbye to New York, which fits a pattern that many successful people have been doing and leaving New York because New York is just too political, too blue and too punitive – you’re seeing that in the business community and among upper income New Yorkers already,” he said – adding the state’s crime wave accentuates the issue.
OBSERVATION - Remember, Rush left NYC for Florida for much the same reasons. Whether or not this will further embolden the leftists to go after other individuals/businesses on the right is yet to be seen - probably depending heavily on what the outcome of Trumps appeal is.
****
Republican lawmakers are accusing the State Department of threatening to obstruct their investigation into “censorship” of companies in the United States.
House Small Business Committee Republicans have continued to request grant records from the State Department’s Global Engagement Center for an inquiry into “government censorship and revenue interference of American small businesses by proxy,” which the committee launched after a series of Washington Examiner reports on the interagency group funding the Global Disinformation Index, a British think tank blacklisting conservative media from advertising dollars. Now, the Biden administration is asserting it may resort to letting the GOP-led panel review documents solely under in camera supervision, which lawmakers say is a “veiled threat to further impede” their investigation, letters show.
OBSERVATION - Continuation of the efforts of the govt to silence the opposition.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
New York Times columnist Ezra Klein is calling for Joe Biden to step aside for a new Democratic nominee. In the latest episode of The Ezra Klein Show, Klein complimented President Biden on successfully unifying the Democratic Party, contrasting it with Republican disunity on key issues like Ukraine. The columnist also praised Biden for his handling of the economy. However, despite praising Biden, he questioned his viability as a central figure in a presidential campaign.
“I like Biden… he’s been a good president… he is a good president. I don’t like having this conversation. And I know a lot of liberals, a lot of Democrats are going to be furious at me for this show,” Klein said.
OBSERVATION - The vultures are circling, how long will biden last?
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The Texas National Guard in El Paso held the line and physically repelled illegal aliens crossing over the border.
Footage posted to X showed a Texas National Guard soldier physically pushing illegals back toward Mexico on Friday.
OBSERVATION - This isn’t the first rejection of illegals that swam the Rio Grande only to be turned away at the fence. Over 75% reduction in illegals since TX took over control of this section of the border.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Kh-59 missile was shot down over Kryvyi Rih district. At least 2 killed as result of missile strikes in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk
Avdiivka has fallen and post collapse studies have revealed that for the FIRST time in the war, Russia was actually able to gain air superiority over the battle field and provide actual close air support to Russian forces. This is reportedly due to the lack of air defense missiles available - suffering shortages like artillery rounds. This may have lead to a level of over confidence given the shoot down of three jets earlier this week. Loss of air defense could be a big factor in future Russian offensive actions - one that may prompt early deployment of F-16s.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Further Russian consolidation in Avdiivka as well as Ukraine bolstering defenses further to the west and northwest.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel rejects imposed two state ‘solution’.
- Action building for eventual entrance of Rafah.
- Growing evidence of direct UNRWA actions in support of Hamas, even to participating in the Oct 7 assault.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
On Friday, a Saudi media report indicated that Hamas turned down an Israeli offer to free 1,500 Palestinian prisoners for the return of all of the hostages into Israel. Hamas had previously asked for the release of 5,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.
****
Israel on Sunday formalized its opposition to what it called the “unilateral recognition” of Palestinian statehood, and said any such agreement must be reached through direct negotiations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu brought the “declaratory decision” to a vote in his Cabinet, which unanimously approved the measure, according to a statement.
Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly meeting that the move comes after “recent talk in the international community about an attempt to unilaterally impose on Israel a Palestinian state.”
****
A video made public by Israeli officials allegedly shows a U.N. relief worker loading the limp body of a shot Israeli man into the back of an SUV and driving away from a southern Israeli village during Hamas’ Oct. 7 cross-border attack.
The video was first reported on by The Washington Post and also shared online by Israeli officials, who identified the man as Faisal Ali Mussalem Al Naami, a social worker with the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has presented intelligence alleging some UNRWA staff took part in abductions and killings during the Oct. 7 rampage that sparked the Israel-Hamas war, prompting a cascade of countries to halt funds for the Palestinian aid agency. UNRWA denies wrongdoing, describing its role as relief only.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
Overnight, Israel increased raids on the periphery of Rafah, as well as targeted air strikes in the city proper.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
Overnight, Israeli security forces stormed the Shuafat camp, northeast of Jerusalem and Anata in Jerusalem.
Clashes erupted with Israeli security forces in the Shuafat refugee camp in Jerusalem.
NOTE - these ‘refugee’ camps are just extensions of the city and built up. Not the ‘tent city’ one thinks about in regards to a ‘refugee’.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Tempo continues to build toward eventual entry into Rafah. It seems to depend on how many and how soon Israel can get non-combatants moved out of the city and into designated areas to the northwest, closer to the Med. This will likely be the most difficult action IDF has faced in Gaza given the mass of civilians that moved here from N and central Gaza combined with the ‘last stand’ of Hamas, its leadership and likely location where surviving hostages are being held.
Another sign things are collapsing...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WHO transgender guideline committee meeting this week.
****
Rich globalist reaching into the US to censor views and opinions.
A green nonprofit that is indirectly funded by a foreign billionaire is pressuring broadcasters to drop advertisements that criticize the Biden administration’s massive electric vehicle (EV) agenda.
Climate Power wrote to numerous broadcasters this week demanding that they stop airing American Fuel and Petrochemicals Manufacturers (AFPM)-funded advertisements in swing state markets that rail against President Joe Biden’s plans to impose widespread EV adoption in the coming years. The charitable organization affiliated with Hansjorg Wyss, a Swiss health care mogul and billionaire philanthropist, donates millions of dollars to the Fund for a Better Future, which was the fiscal sponsor for Climate Power until 2023, a spokesperson for Climate Power previously told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
AFPM launched its seven-figure ad campaign designed to highlight and criticize the administration’s EV policies on Tuesday. The ads, which describe Biden’s policies as an EV mandate, are airing in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Montana and Washington, D.C.
Climate Power’s warning letter to local affiliates states that the broadcasters “must remove these ads from the air immediately” because “there is no pending federal ‘car ban,’ and to claim otherwise is patently false and intentionally misleading.” The letter suggests that AFPM’s ads could be in violation of Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rules, and instructs the broadcasters to contact Climate Power — an Internal Revenue Service-recognized 501(c)4 that is spending more than $80 million to tout Biden’s climate policies ahead of the 2024 presidential election — to confirm that the ads are no longer running on their stations.
Because Wyss is a Swiss citizen, he is not allowed by law to directly donate to American political candidates or political committees, but the activities of his nonprofit and associated organizations have allowed him to quietly become one of the most influential individual donors in American politics today, according to The Associated Press.
In May 2021, Americans for Public Trust — a government watchdog and transparency group — filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) alleging that Wyss, his nonprofits and affiliated organizations have “violated fundamental compliance and transparency rules” governing political spending by foreign nationals.
OBSERVATION - Censorship - that is the tool the globalists are increasing relying upon to force their narrative on the world.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Members of the so-called neo-Nazi group, known as the “Blood Tribe,” were seen proudly displaying swastika flags during a march in downtown Nashville, Tennessee.
The event, which occurred on Saturday, saw these individuals donning red T-shirts emblazoned with ‘Blood Tribe’ on the back, as they paraded through the city’s heart.
Founded in 2020 by Christopher Pohlhaus, a former Marine, Blood Tribe has since been a subject of controversy and scrutiny.
Pohlhaus, speaking to a reporter in Florida over the summer, revealed a surprising stance in the political landscape.
During questioning, the “Nazi” leader admitted he was a Biden supporter.
“My vote is useless. I think Biden’s better than Trump ’cause he sends rockets to Ukraine,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Many view this group, as well as “Patriot Front” as pseudo organizations manned by federal agents. However, the rise of these groups is a natural response to the govt endorsed anti-white actions and black groups with racist agendas. Just more evidence that any CW2 scenario that goes hot is going to be very ugly.
***
Here the news that I misplaced yesterday -
African migrants & immigrants from Eritrea in Charlotte, N.C. are rioting & attacking police. The riot coincides with Eritreans in the Netherlands also setting fires and assaulting police. Warring Eritrean factions have taken their violence to the countries they claim asylum in.
OBSERVATION - Eritrea’s here are not the only group with multiple sects having brought their sectarian violence here with them.
***
Pro-hamas elements were busy over the weekend. The pro-Hamas militants blocked numerous streets in the downtown Seattle core. They started off this afternoon at Westlake Park, flooded Pike Place Market, marched past the Amazon Spheres, and are now causing more traffic disruptions in Belltown.
Some violence was noted, but I’ve not seen any info on arrests.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson CSG held port call in Hawaii.
USS Roosevelt CSG at Guam
USS Eisenhower on station in the Red Sea.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Truckers boycott of NYC is expected to begin today. Will it gain traction?
With congress in recess, most political activity is being directed towards election matters. All heck is going to hit the fan when it reconvenes later this month.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
A secret service agent is now being posted at the ‘short stairs’ to AF1 to assist biden up the stairs and avoid the multiple stumbling incidents that have occurred over the past several years.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
China’s cyber attacks have grown to a ‘scale greater than we’d seen before’, the FBI director has advised amid fears that US infrastructure is under threat.
Christopher Wray gave the grave warning as intelligence chiefs and politicians met at the Munich annual security conference on Sunday, according to the Wall Street Journal.
He said Beijing’s plan to secretly plant technology inside the US critical infrastructure has become a significant threat to national security.
Wray cited Volt Typhoon, the moniker given to the Chinese hacking network that infiltrated the US last year, but said it’s only the ‘tip of the iceberg.’
Under ‘Volt Typhoon’ Beijing’s military have burrowed into more than 20 major suppliers in the last year alone including a water utility in Hawaii, a major West Coast port and at least one oil and gas pipeline, analysts revealed weeks ago.
They have bypassed elaborate cyber security systems by intercepting passwords and log-ins unguarded by junior employees, leaving China ‘sitting on a stockpile of strategic’ vulnerabilities.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13098111/China-hack-infrastructure-FBI-warning.html
OBSERVATION - China’s asymmetrical warfare doctrine will definitely come into play if/when they move on Taiwan.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Illegals more and more are generating more crime of all flavors (larceny, murder, etc).
China –
The Philippines announces that China has started using cyanide fishing to ‘intentionally destroy’ the Scarborough Shoal fishing grounds for Filipino fishermen.
The shoal belongs to the Philippines according to international law but China claims it as its own.
Phillipines –
See “China “ above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Under review - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
See “Europe / NATO General” Below regarding Russian threats toward Norway
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Moscow will fire nuclear weapons at Washington and other Western capitals if it is forced to give up the Ukrainian territory it has taken over, Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has warned, according to a Daily Mail report on Sunday. He emphasized that “the West should not think that in such a scenario the leadership of Russia will ‘tremble in its hand’ in pushing the nuclear button.”
OBSERVATION - Medvedev has been making nuclear attack threats regularly, especially since Russia started its war with Ukraine.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range early in the week, with scattered snow and rain. Temps warming to the 40s later in the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
4 Shahed drones were shot down overnight. Explosions reported near Kremenchuk, Kropivnitsky and Poltava - eastern Ukraine.
Russian troops are attacking in 5 directions at once, while Ukraine lacks weapons and soldiers - New York Times
Russians are attacking simultaneously in Avdiivka, Maryinka, Robotyne, Kremenka and Bakhmut directions.
Map at the link below
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GGrqjDWW0AAPMG7?format=jpg&name=medium
Initial reports from this Russian offensive are mixed for Russia. Zaporizhzhia (Robotyne). The defense forces defeated yesterday’s attempt! 18/30 units of the involved equipment were destroyed, ~70 occupants were killed, 80 were wounded. Russians were driven back to their previous positions. Follow on attacks, Ukrainian Forces are claimed to have now withdrawal from defensive positions to the south and west of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region following a significant assault by Russian mechanized infantry with the support of tactical air and armor; Russian ground troops appear to have entered at least the outskirts of the Town.
West of Bakhmut, Russians are attacking Ivanivske. Heavy battles are taking place. Earlier today, a combined mechanized attack on Bohdanivka, a bit north of Ivanivske, was repelled.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, two more Russian fighter planes have been shot down, two Su-34s and Su-35S. This makes 6 Russian fighter jets destroyed in 3 days.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Army has struck a large Russian oil depot near Makiivka.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
The reports of extensive Russian operations in the areas noted above indicate that Russia has finally kicked off its winter/spring offensive. Two key items of note -
- 1. Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka and are pressing the CAS in these other areas.
- 2. The attacks seem to be much more organized than previous Russian attacks of the past year.
However, as noted in the attacks towards Robotyne and even Avdiivka, they are still suffering from poor tactical actions - mass charges across open areas into kill zones. So far the key reason for their success is the apparent lack of Ukraine artillery support due to ammo shortages.
Russian CAS is at a cost, losing 6 modern fighter bombers in 2-3 days. Russia only has so many of these flight worthy due to parts shortages and war losses.
Ukraine is facing a larger Russian army, with a resumed artillery advantage and more aggressive CAS. I don’t see things changing until Ukraine gets substantially rearmed with artillery ammo.
Europe / NATO General –
Russia issues threats against Norway over “sovereignty issues” in Svalbard
Russian Deputy PM Yuri Trutnev compares the situation there for Russians with Ukraine:
“Today, our warriors are spilling blood for the sovereignty of our country & the right to speak Russian”
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
- Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel expects the fight in Gaza to last another 6-8 months.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The Israeli government announces the agreement on the return of residents of Sderot and towns adjacent to Gaza, starting at the beginning of next March.
****
Netanyahu says Israel doesn’t recognize debate in Hague over ‘occupation’ of West Bank
“Israel does not recognize the legitimacy of the discussion at the International Court of Justice in the Hague regarding the ‘legality of the occupation,’ a move designed to harm Israel’s right to defend itself against existential threats,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
“The discussion in the Hague is part of the Palestinian attempt to dictate the results of the political settlement without negotiation. We will continue to repel this attempt, and the government and the Knesset are united in rejecting this unacceptable trend.”
***
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Saturday called for Palestinians in Judea and Samaria to be barred from the Temple Mount in Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on March 10. “It is forbidden to allow residents from the Palestinian Authority to enter Israel in any way. We cannot take chances and risks,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X.
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Hamas is looking for a successor for Yahya Sinwar as communications with the Gaza chief broke down completely, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Sunday situational assessment.
“Hamas has no trust in its commanders,” Gallant said in a visit to the IDF’s Southern Command. “Hamas’s Gaza branch returns no answer - there are no leaders on the field to speak with.
“This means there is an auction happening to decide who runs Gaza...[Currently,] there is no one in control, and there is no one leading operations.”
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Israel will launch an offensive in Rafah by Ramadan unless Hamas frees all hostages, said Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz.
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Israel’s delay may be attributed to moving hundreds of thousands of non-combatant out of Rafah and into expanded facilities being built north of the town at the Al-Mawasi ‘humanitarian area’
Link below to map.
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Philippe Lazzarini, the head of UNRWA, the UN agency for “Palestinian refugees”, accused Israel on Saturday of aiming to “destroy” the organization.
In an interview with the Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger, Lazzarini claimed that Israel has a “long-term political goal” of eliminating UNRWA.
“At the moment, we are dealing with an expanded, concentrated Israeli campaign, which is aimed at destroying UNRWA,” Lazzarini charged.
On Friday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told foreign reporters that Israel has found intelligence that more than 30 of UNRWA’s employees actively participated in the massacre, and assisted in the kidnapping of civilians and soldiers.
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——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Jerusalem expects intense fighting to continue in Gaza for another six to eight weeks, including in Rafah city, before scaling back the war effort, Reuters reported on Monday.
“Military chiefs believe they can significantly damage Hamas’ remaining capabilities in that time, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations,” the report stated, citing two Israeli officials and two regional officials familiar with the strategy.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border. Levels of fire have been increasing.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi shot down an American drone, MQ9, in Al-Hudaydah Governorate, western Yemen .
The U.S. Navy announces that the Houthis have for the first time tried to attack US vessels in the Red Sea with an unmanned underwater drone (UUV). The drone was spotted and destroyed before it got anywhere close to the ships.
A significant fire is reported to be burning aboard the Belize-Flagged Commercial Shipping Vessel, M/V Rubymar after it was struck earlier by a Houthi Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile while transiting north through the Bab al-Mandab Strait from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea. Reports that the crew was forced to abandoned ship after vessel was struck.
CENTCOM: Feb. 17 Summary of Red Sea activities – Between the hours of 3:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. (Sanaa time), Feb. 17, CENTCOM successfully conducted five self-defense strikes against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vessel (UUV), and one unmanned surface vessel (USV) in Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. This is the first observed Houthi employment of a UUV since attacks began in Oct.
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The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed Monday’s decision and posted on social media platform X, formerly Twitter: “Europe will ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, working alongside our international partners. Beyond crisis response, it’s a step towards a stronger European presence at sea to protect our European interests.”
The EU-led mission, called Aspides, the ancient Greek word for shield, will involve sending three European warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the leaders of major American Jewish Organizations to pressure Hamas to release the Israeli hostages by pressing its sponsor Qatar to exert its influence on the terror group.
“I urge you to press Qatar to press Hamas, because we want our hostages released,” Netanyahu said in a speech to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (CoP), held in Jerusalem on Sunday.
NOTE - Qatar has been ‘hosting’ the senior leadership of Hamas for many years now. The three Hamas leaders have a combined net worth in the tens of billions of dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Houthi have become more aggressive in their attacks over the past couple days. As long as the US does minimal interdiction, they will continue to press their attacks. The introduction of a unmanned drone submarine will complicate matters - making detection difficult as well as hits at ship waterlines increase the chance of sinking vessels.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Reports of a resurgent Al Qaeda reestablishing bases and training in country.
