CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
A couple more states are sending NG contingents to reinforce TX efforts at the border.
***
Authorities on Friday nabbed a 15-year-old migrant suspected of shooting a tourist and firing at cops in Times Square, law enforcement sources said.
The US Marshals Fugitive Recovery Task Force took the Venezuelan teen into custody in Yonkers at around 3:30 p.m., according to the sources.
OBSERVATION - I noted a few days ago of the rise in Venezuelan gangs of illegals in NYC. Here is another example. As these various ethnic groups jell together in our metropolitan areas, they are further contributing to the Balkanization of the same cities, setting the stage for increased ethnic conflicts and crime between illegal groups and pre-existing gangs.
***
Saturday’s early - watch out for pro-hamas ‘protests’ in major cities across the country thru Sunday.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S Navy conducted two drills in the South China Sea this week, including a joint trilateral drill with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Royal Australian Navy and the third iteration of the Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Philippines.
Meanwhile the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is currently in Guam on a port visit.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A passenger on board a Lufthansa flight from Thailand to Germany died Thursday, after his fellow travelers watched in horror as blood gushed out of his mouth and nose.
The unidentified 63-year-old German man was seen boarding the Airbus A380 in Bangkok shortly before midnight visibly sick, with “cold sweats” and “breathing much too quickly,” Karin Missfelder recounted to Swiss German outlet Blick.
OBSERVATION - No word out yet as to what the cause of this incident was. But if a disease like Marburg or Ebola, the transmission threat to those on board is deadly high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Most of the political soap opera focuses on biden - described below.
More heat being brought to bear on McConnell to step down. I suspect that he may be able to ride this out to the elections, but if the republicans manage somehow to retake the senate, he may not succeed to be the majority leader.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
The spin factory following yesterday’s debacle is flying off its ball bearings, and internal democrat cohesion is becoming shredded. Calls to circle the wagons around biden are bouncing off calls for him to at a minimum step out of the presidential race - including those democrat big buck supporters.
Rumors are also present indicating that biden is looking to make AG Merrick Garland the scapegoat for the bombshell report which highlighted his mental challenges. Increased pressure from some republicans on AG Garland to either move forward with 25th amendment proceedings against biden or initiate prosecution for his crimes of mishandling and releasing without authorization highly classified materials.
Special prosecutor Hue is facing backlash from the WH for politicizing his investigation.
Another interesting theory poking its head up out there is that being designated as mentally deficient to defend himself in court was a ploy to prevent him from actually being charged with crimes associated with not only the classified documents, but other alleged crimes he is said to have committed - such as those surrounding hunter and Ukraine.
Further speculation that the powers that be are pressing forward to off ramp biden sooner than they originally had anticipated.
Either way, this story isn’t going away soon, as long as journalists keep getting the go ahead to press biden and the WH on the mental deficiency issue.
***
In light of biden’s disastrous press conference the other night, focus will be intense on his performance (literal) at the SOTU next month. As with previous addresses by other presidents, it will be scripted and posted on the teleprompters. More and more biden has failed to be able to follow the teleprompters as speeches and even more dangerous are the times he goes off script. If his presentation is any where near as poor as his past press conference, the pressure for him to step down or get 25th’d will grow exponentially.
Political drama could grow, depending how badly he spirals down between now and then it the wild hope that he will announce is resignation at the STOU. That in its self would toss the country into wild spasms. We’ll just have to wait and see how his damage control goes.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The spike in migrants crossing into the Tucson Sector returned last week, with daily apprehensions numbers jumping back to the levels seen during the record-shattering month of December. Tucson Sector agents apprehended nearly 14,000 migrants during the past week.
Tucson Sector Chief Patrol Agent John Modlin posted a weekly update on “X” showing the return a major levels of migrants being apprehended. During the previous week, Modlin stated his agents encountered 13,800 migrants.
China –
Chinese stock market continues to stagger as its economy continues downward into the dumps. Now foreign investments that were high last year in expectation of explosive, post wuhan growth, are bailing before they lose any more money.
North/South Korea –
The Republic of Korea Navy’s 42nd Cheonghae unit – which includes destroyer ROKS Dae Jo-yeong (DDH-977), an embarked Super Lynx helicopter, ROKN SEALs, Republic of Korea Marines and a medical team – is also heading to the Gulf of Aden. The unit left left Jinhae Naval Base on Feb.1, according to a South Korea Ministry of National Defense news release.
Formally known as the ROKN Somali Sea Escort Task Group and built around a ROKN destroyer, the unit has deployed on counter-piracy missions since 2009 and has carried out a number of combat engagements with Somali pirates, notably in January 2011, when eight Somali pirates were killed and five were captured when the unit successfully rescued the crew of a hijacked tanker.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Continued commentary on the Carleson - putin interview bouncing around the inter webs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 31 Shahed drones, launched by Russia overnight. 7 persons killed, including 3 children and 57 wounded as result of Russian drone attack in Kharkiv overnight 5 persons wounded as result of Shahed drones attacks in Odesa
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Expect continued heavy fighting around Avdiivka.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Plans go forward for civilian evacuation from Rafah.
- Conflict at the Lebanese border is threatening to escalate following Israeli target killing of Hezbollah officials and retaliatory rocket fire by Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
Egyptian Foreign Minister - Any increase in the scope of military actions in Gaza will have serious consequences - in likely reference to the impending ground assault into Rafah.
UN Spokesman - Civilians in Rafah need protection and any forced mass displacement should not be carried out
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who is currently on a visit to Washington, DC, cancelled a scheduled meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, which was scheduled for Friday, due to Guterres’ statements against Israel, Channel 12 News reported.
According to the report, Ohana made clear that he would not give Guterres legitimacy by holding the meeting.
***
Israel’s military response in the Gaza Strip to the shock October 7 attack by Hamas has been “over the top,” US President Joe Biden says.
“I’m of the view, as you know, that the conduct of the response in Gaza, in the Gaza Strip, has been over the top,” he tells reporters at the White House during an evening address that was announced only about two hours earlier.
“I’m pushing very hard now to deal with this hostage ceasefire,” Biden says. “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving, a lot of innocent people who are in trouble and dying, and it’s gotta stop.”
The remarks, some of Biden’s sharpest public criticism to date of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, come as the Democratic president has come under increasing domestic pressure to press Israel on a ceasefire.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Army to start preparing the evacuations of 1.2 million civilians from the city of Rafah near the border between Egypt and Gaza.
Yedioth Ahronoth - The Israeli army approved a military operation in Rafah.
IDF notes there are at least 12 active smuggling tunnels in Rafah crossing into Egypt.
A ground invasion of the city is imminent as the IDF is preparing to liquidate 4 Hamas battalions there.
Hamas warns of a “massacre” if an Israeli military operation is launched in Rafah, south of Gaza.
Egypt has sent security reinforcements and patrols to the border with Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin: “Our goal is to change the security situation in the north in a manner that will allow us to safely return the residents home to a state of security.
“We are determined to change the security reality that is already shifting these days and continue to prepare for an expansion of the war and to go on the offensive - this is our mission. We will continue to carry out the defensive battle, to strike Hezbollah, and to deny its capabilities”
Latest Hezbollah barrage counted some 40 missiles. This followed a strike that likely targeted Hezbollah officials on a vehicle in the village of Jadra, some 60 kilometers from the Israeli border. Footage from the scene shows at least three casualties
Hezbollah’s Nasrallah met with Iranian foreign minister in Lebanon yesterday
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF airstrikes targeted a number of points in the Damascus countryside suspected of being linked to Hezbollah/Iran.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A coalition of Iran-backed militants promised to resume “painful strikes” on U.S. troops based in Iraq and Syria in a statement on Friday following major U.S. counterattacks for the deaths of three soldiers.
The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of militia groups that includes one deemed responsible for the Jan. 28 suicide drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, said it would suspend military operations on Jan. 30 as the U.S. threatened significant retaliation. Since U.S. forces did not vacate the region, “painful strikes and broad attacks” will come, the Islamic Resistance said in a statement.
“The opportunity that the Islamic Resistance today granted to the occupation forces to leave the Holy Land as a lifeline, it did not obtain yesterday,” a translation of the statement read.
The militants mourned the death of a senior militia leader of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the major groups in the coalition, at the hands of the U.S. military.
***
US forces continue to engage Houthi drone / missile launch sites, restricting actual attacks on shipping.
Overnight, Houthi seaborne drones were detected and destroyed by allied forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israeli operations in Rafah will prove to be one of the most difficult actions seen in modern warfare. The displacement of over a million civilians while at the same time engaging hamas terrorists who are staging their ‘last stand’ is daunting. However, Rafah with its estimated 8 battalions of Hamas is a must do operation to ensure total defeat of Hamas in Gaza. It is further made necessary due to the underground network that is similar to what has been found further north - tied into smuggling tunnels into Egypt.
It is uncertain if and to what extent Egypt may intervene militarily . If they are consistent with previous statements - they are more concerned with gazans spilling into Egypt and bringing their problems with them.
Statements from world leaders indicate they don’t want these ‘non-combatants’ displaced. In doing so, they are reinforcing hamas’s doctrine of human shields. These same nations decry that use of civilians, but are using it to force Israel into their desires for a cease fire and eventual forced two state solution.
I think the Israeli leadership has already factored this in. It realizes that it is increasingly having to go it alone - especially as biden loses ground to the pro-hamas factions in the democrat party.
Expect an even higher level of negative reporting on Israeli actions as the ground operation in Rafah progresses.
In the north - there is a cycle of escalation developing between Israel and Hezbollah. Many of Israel’s air strikes on Hezbollah targets are beginning to hurt, especially those hitting senior leadership. Hezbollah has started increasing the number of large rocket barrages - gradually, but consistently. In doing so, they expose launch sites - most of which are underground - to targeting by IAF air strikes - taking them out of the picture for when the war really starts. As Hezbollah exposes its missile infrastructure more and more, they are losing more of it.
Rhetoric continues to build on the Israeli side and intensive planning has been well underway for years is getting detailed updating. Israel is close to initiating ground operations at any time.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” - actions are expected to resume in Syria and Iraq. We will have to see how aggressive our counter and preemptive strikes will be in deterring attacks.
Aggressive CAPs have kept the Houthi attacks on shipping mostly suppressed. A shift to use of seaborne drones is a possibility - but they are currently not seen as a serious threat at this time. Another factor that is probably hindering the Houthi efforts has been the withdrawal of Iranian command / intelligence vessels out of the immediate region and into safe harbors. The possibility of sending these ship to the sea bottom must be very real to Iran, and with good reason since they have not been taken off the target list by the US.
Pakistan –
With most results now declared in Pakistan’s election, no political force has a clear majority but candidates linked to jailed former PM Imran Khan have won most seats so far.
The results have defied expectations and Mr Khan is claiming victory.
However another ex-PM, Nawaz Sharif, says his party has emerged the largest and wants others to join a coalition.
On Saturday Pakistan’s army chief urged the country to move on from the politics of “anarchy and polarisation”.
General Asim Munir said that a stable hand was needed to unite “Pakistan’s diverse polity”, and to make “democracy functional and purposeful”.
OBSERVATION - The next several weeks will see jockeying of smaller coalitions to see if they can get a better deal from Khan or Sharif. Very dangerous period as near-civil war broke out with the arrest over a year ago of Khan. Remember, Pakistan is a nuclear armed nation and recent trends has seen a shift to a more radical islam over moderates. Internal instability or even civil war could enable a terrorist group to get their hands on a warhead - with devastating results to either India or US.
Venezuela -
Venezuela is backing up its threats to annex part of Guyana and secure access to some of the world’s largest oil finds in more than a decade by moving light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to the two countries’ border in what is quickly turning into a new security challenge for the Biden administration.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela is progressing step by step on this operation. When they first announced their claim and that they were ready to seize the Guyana’s territory, some of the first actions were the construction of new military bases near the border. Now, these bases are being completed and army elements are moving into them. US and UK have pledged support to Guyana (former UK commonwealth nation), but as noted, support from the US may well be muted given our internal turmoil over military and related support to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. As it stands right now, the US is virtually powerless to stop Venezuela when they decide to strike.
Misc of Note –
The sun’s magnetic poles are about to flip, and it could cause lower latitude northern lights, more intense solar storms and potential danger for astronauts and satellite communication. However, experts predict there’s no overt cause for concern.
Stanford solar physicist Phil Scherrer described the process - “The sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, go to zero and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. This is a regular part of the solar cycle.”
Mike Murray, program director at the Delta College Planetarium, predicted that this year’s pole reversal, which will likely happen between April and August, should be “nothing to worry about.”
OBSERVATION - Noting a growing trend of doom porn regarding solar magnetic pole flips. With it an abundance of just flat out misinformation. This has been going on for the entire life of the sun - and has happened dozens of times during our lives - and no doom has occurred. Many of the doomers link the large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the pole flip - nothing is further from the truth. Those CMEs are due to solar flare activity, not reversals and some of the biggest associated during period in between reversals.
My bottom line is I monitor solar activity daily for decades now. The threat is from massive X class solar flares, but reversals are not the threat some are making them out to be.
The State of the Union speech could be very interesting.
I wonder if they can prop and drug him up enough to pull it off or are going to use a body double.
Airbus A380 - Wikipedia The full-length double-deck aircraft has a typical seating for 525 passengers, with a maximum certified capacity for 853 passengers. The quadjet is powered by Engine Alliance GP7200 or Rolls-Royce Trent 900 turbofans providing a range of 8,000 nmi (14,800 km; 9,200 mi).
Could be a big problem... keep us posted.
Butler County sheriff ramps up training, security after FBI warning of terror attacks
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
NYPD arrested a number of anti-Israel protesters in Brooklyn, New York City after their protest turned violent. Still looking to see if any other Saturday protest did the same. More pro-hamas protests are expected across the country today.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
(H/T Oorang) At the recent National Sheriff’s Association Conference in Washington, D.C., Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones expressed grave concerns regarding the safety of the American electoral process and broader national security threats.
Based on briefings with FBI Director Christopher Wray, Sheriff Jones has taken the unprecedented step of offering disaster preparedness training to civilians in the county.
The Gateway Pundit reported earlier that Sheriff Richard Jones of Butler County, Ohio, is sounding the alarm over national security threats posed by illegal immigrants and potential terrorist activities within the country.
“They’re here not to be our friends. Some of them are coming because they’re wanting to come here to the best country in the world. The way we see, some are coming here to do harm to us. And we were told by the FBI director, it’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when,” Jones warned.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/02/must-watch-butler-county-sheriff-richard-jones-warns/
OBSERVATION - It has been pretty clear for some time now that terror cells from the likes of China and Iran have infiltrated and embedded themselves into the US. So i consider that there is a significant degree of factualness to what the FBI may have briefed them on. biden’s dumpster fire of existence is growing by leaps and bounds and this invites terrorists to become emboldened to move forward with their plans.
OTOH, I’m concerned that there may well be a degree of fear mongering by the FBI, whose major efforts to counter terror has been going after religious groups, grandmas and ‘white terrorists’. So I am struggling with accepting the FBI’s warning at face value - do they have an anterior motive?
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Little new has come out concerning the passenger on board a Lufthansa flight from Thailand to Germany that died Thursday, as blood gushed out of his mouth and nose. Some apparently informed individuals on the webs indicate that the death is being diagnosed as being due to massive bleeding from an esophageal bleed (Esophageal varices), which are horrendous and often fatal, even in the best of circumstances. It’s often seen in those with chronic alcohol intake.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/esophageal-varices/symptoms-causes/syc-20351538
OBSERVATION - If this turns out to be Esophageal varices, I don’t expect to see much more about this. OTOH, if Ebola or the like, then the news should be bubbling.
***
A study conducted by the US Centers for Disease Control and Food and Drug Administration has shown that the risk of myocarditis following mRNA COVID vaccination is around 133x greater than the background risk in the population.
This means COVID-19 vaccination increases the risk of suffering myocarditis, an autoimmune disease causing inflammation of the heart, by 13,200%.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2788346
OBSERVATION - this from a publication from Jan 2022. They knew that this jab was deadly, but kept the information out of public view until recently.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Biden and the DNC have opened a federal investigation into RFK Jr. in an attempt to remove him from the ballot.
Initial numbers following the biden classified documents scandal and the declared mental illness that the prosecutor used to defer prosecution - followed by biden’s disastrous presser that evening has shown Trump to have made a big jump in public opinion over biden. These are just initial numbers and no major polls yet.
Remember, polls also serve the purpose of shaping public opinion and if the major polls in the next days reflect a major Trump spike - it could be in order to apply more leverage for biden to step down.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Spin of tornadic measure continues around Hue’s biden report and questions over his mental faculties. Dems trying hard to deflect demands for a mental health evaluation.
More commentary going on about how ‘black’ biden’s eyes were during that presser. This is indicative of enlarged pupils. Many suspect that this is evidence of his deteriorating mental state and the drugs given to keep him going. Also note that he is commonly seen wearing dark sun glasses in and out doors - again suggesting pupil dilation.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Intercepts in the AZ region are pushing new high levels. Waiting to see what the latest BP reports to confirm.
NGOs are being uncovered having illegal ‘camps’ in national forest areas in an effort to hide them. Other facilities being used by NGOS to house illegals are refusing congressional oversight visits by the NGOs that operate them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Busy night for Ukraine ADA - Ukrainian air defense shot down 40 of 45 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Kherson and Dnipro city areas among the target areas.
Ukraine kept Russian ADA active in occupied Mariupol.
Bakhmut -
Back in the news as Russia renews attacks in the area.
Avdiivka -
While Ukraine hold, its supply lines are increasingly coming under attack as Russia presses the flanks of the salient.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
With the exception of Avdiivka, most of the Russian attacks are characterized as being “positional “ battles, one s where local tactically advantageous terrain for defensive operations is fought over.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel moves closer to conducting combat operations in Rafah.
- UNRWA is being shown to be more and more complicit and supportive of Hamas with the reveal of a significant tunnel network beneath its Gaza HQ.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israeli strikes on the Gaza strip during the past 96 hours have killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others, Hamas’ armed-wing Al Qassam Brigades announced Sunday over the group’s Telegram channel.
Israel revealed late this week that 31 of the 136 remaining hostages have been confirmed dead, leaving 105 remaining to be returned to Israel from Hamas terrorist clutches.
***
British Foreign Secretary: We are deeply concerned about the possibility of a military attack on Rafah, where more than half of Gaza’s population is taking refuge.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
***
New evidence of the cooperation between UNRWA and the Islamist terror organization Hamas came to light after the IDF discovered a tunnel shaft near a UNRWA school during its operations in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli military announced on Saturday.
The tunnel shaft, near the school, led to an underground shelter that served as a valuable asset for Hamas’s military intelligence wing, according to the IDF. The route connected to the tunnel also led to a path beneath UNRWA’s central headquarters in the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, IDF soldiers discovered electric infrastructure inside the tunnels that were connected to the UNRWA headquarters building, indicating that UNRWA assets were supplying Hamas with electricity.
UNRWA Commissioner-General - “The agency’s employees have left the main headquarters in Gaza City since October 12, and we do not know what is underneath”
***
Egypt is threatening to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Israeli troops are sent into the densely populated Gaza border town of Rafah, and says fighting there could force the closure of the territory’s main aid supply route, two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat said Sunday.
The threat to suspend the Camp David Accords, a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly a half-century, came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said sending troops into Rafah was necessary to win the four-month-old war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister - “I presented to my Iranian counterpart our vision for finding a sustainable solution that will restore calm to the south within the framework of Resolution 1701”
Israel is reportedly jamming GPS devices in the north to confound Hezbollah missiles.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Iranian Foreign Minister - “We do not want to expand the scope of the war”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
RUMINT - According to several U.S. Defense Officials, preparations are now underway for a total or partial withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces from Eastern Syria and Iraq due to continued pressure and escalations by Iranian-backed groups including Kata’ib Hezbollah, while also making it a priority of getting American servicemembers to “Safety” prior to any kind a regional war; the full withdrawal could take up to 90 Days but that depends on its size, scope, and urgency.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Omani Foreign Ministry - “We warn of the dangerous repercussions of its continued aggression against the Gaza Strip and its trend towards storming Rafah.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israel will go into Rafah regardless of what any one else says or demands. They will likely begin a major evacuation of civilians out of the city within the next few days. It is the last largely untouched Hamas stronghold in Gaza.
Intensity is building in Lebanon as well. Iranian rhetoric has cranked up in the last few days suggesting that they will not leave Hezbollah out to dry as they did Hamas.
If the RUMINT is accurate - and many other sources are echoing the same - this would represent a major loss by the US to Iran. It would also permit Iran to focus more on potential direct attacks on Israel. Iran has been working to oust the US forces for about a year now and it will not stop at this level of removal but push to now remove the US from the entire region. Given biden’s foreign policy disasters - such as the Afghanistan pullout - any withdrawal from Iraq/Syria could face the same measure of stupidity on the part of military and political planners.
Finally, the location of a major Hamas HQ directly below the UNRWA HQ for Gaza pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin of the UN’s cooperation with Hamas against Israel. The UNRWA Commissioner-General’s claim that they knew nothing is pretty weak. It is a throughly corrupt organization and must be defunded and shut down.