Yesterday was a day of stark contrasts. It is as if the crazy dial got kicked up a couple notches all at once. Fallout is going to be intense over the next week - at least.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
One of the principle, driving forces leading the WEF/Global reset, Yuval Noah Harari, on Jan 31 posted a note on “X” reflecting on the recent set backs to their efforts.
“Populist leaders are on the rise around the world, attacking the liberal global order. They haven’t explained what will replace the order they have destroyed, and the result is the disorder, chaos and violence we are seeing today.”
OBSERVATION - In reality, the WEF/globalists have created much of the disorder, chaos and violence seen in the world today. It is the mechanism by which they look to eventually causing the global system to crash and everyone run to them to provide the solution to putting things back together again.
***
Recent address to Australian parliament, Australian senator, Malcolm Roberts, courageously exposes the WEF’s ‘Great Reset’ agenda.
“The WEF have now turned their evil agenda to food. The campaign against farming is really a campaign against one of the necessities of life—food.”
“Who controls the food supply controls the people. Who controls the energy can control whole continents. Who controls money can control the world. The World Economic Forum—and the predatory billionaires they represent—are currently trying to do all three.”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
See Illegal Immigration for latest lawfare victory for TX
***
There were some minor protests against Trump outside the USSC building lead by the typical Antifa rabble who proceeded to block the road with a REMOVE TRUMP banner.
***
A considerable number of protests/rallies by pro-hamas elements are scheduled for this weekend. This is the end of the “week of action” scheduled to end on Sunday, Feb 11th.
Embedded in these protests may be pockets of vandalism and minor violence. Also a potential for highway/road blockages. Be alert to your local news in blue metro areas for their activities.
I would expect protests at the Superbowl in Las Vegas with the purpose of delaying spectators from reaching the stadium. I have not seen any announcements for such a protest, but it is a big, juicy target that would gather a lot of visibility for their ‘cause’.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The nation’s debt and deficit crisis will significantly worsen, starting with the next fiscal (FY2025), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned Wednesday, releasing its budget and economic outlook for 2024-2034.
The public debt is projected to rise from $26.2 trillion at the end of 2023 to $48.3 trillion at the end of 2034, pushing the amount of federal debt higher than the nation’s economic output:
- As a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the debt is poised to rise from 97.3% in FY2023 to 99.0% of GDP in FY2024, then hit 101.7% in 2025.
- Debt will then continue to rise, to 116% of GDP in 2034 – and 172% of GDP in 2054. The highest percent on record is 106%, set in 1946 as the U.S. was coming out of WWII.
- The debt increase from FY2024-FY2034 will be fueled by steep increases in mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare) and interest costs.
- Beginning in FY2025, net interest costs will be the highest percentage of GDP on record (since 1940).
OBSERVATION - This is developing into the scenario that the WEF is pushing for globally - bankrupt nations not able to service their debts.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
For fiscal year 2024, the Air Force, hoping to retain more of its experienced airmen, has automatically raised the maximum number of years enlisted members may serve at a given rank. Eligible airmen may serve an additional two years without a promotion before they’re forced to exit the service, according to an Air Force spokeswoman. The maximum time an enlisted airmen may spend in a given rank is called high year of tenure. The Air Force high year of tenure extensions apply to enlisted grades of airman basic through senior master sergeant to keep experienced service members in the ranks and keep the Air Force mission ready, Air Force spokeswoman Master Sgt. Deana Heitzman told Stars and Stripes by email Dec. 8.
OBSERVATION - For those of us who’ve served, we recognize that those unable to advance due to who knows what - often poor performance or overfilling of a particular MOS, is necessary to make room for more potentially qualified service members to advance up their ranks. Creating a log jam like this only constipates the system upstream - making it hard to retain those enlisted members.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The Supreme Court heard oral argument in the Colorado ballot case yesterday, and the case presented by Colorado appears to have been sunk by every justice of the court. Court observers indicate that there is a real possibility of a 9-0 decision against Colorado given the skepticism noted even by the courts most liberal members. The court didn’t announce when the opinion for the case would be announced - common policy for all cases - but given the time sensitive requirement to get one out there, it could come very quickly.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Yesterday was a thermonuclear dumpster fire for biden. It is a clear turning point for his campaign and presidency
Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report was released, and it was damning. Hur found biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials.” Further, he has significant cognitive issues & “did not remember when he was vice-president” & forgot when his term ended. No criminal charges are needed, it says.
Among some of the critical findings were that the president’s memory “appeared to have significant limitations”.
His handling/storage of highly classified, compartmented documents was unbelievably irresponsible. The report said the files were discovered “near a collapsed dog crate, a dog bed, a Zappos box, an empty bucket, a broken lamp wrapped with duct tape, potting soil, and synthetic firewood”.
(SPECIAL NOTE - I worked with compartmented classified material for much of my active duty time. By its nature, those materials were never to leave a SCIF except under high security arrangement - and definitely never to be stored in a box in a garage next to one’s car).
In apparent anger, biden called a late night presser and proceeded to prove the Special Council’s report to be accurate.
Ben Shapiro on “X” gave probably the best description of it -
“That was the Challenger explosion of presidential press conferences. What a full-scale disaster.”
biden insisted “my memory is fine” while attacking Hur for some items included in the report.
“How in the hell dare he raise that,” an angry Biden said of the portion of Hur’s report that stated Biden “did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died.” That matter, the president said, is “none of their damn business.”
“For any extraneous commentary, they don’t know what they’re talking about,” Biden insisted, despite the report directly quoting Biden’s confused answers. “It has no place in this report,” declared Biden. “The bottom line is the matter is now closed and I can continue what I’ve always focused on: my job of being the president of the United States of America.”
Biden then displayed how sharp his memory was by stating that Egyptian president El-Sisi as the “president of Mexico.”
Other choice memory statements include -
“I said I’m gonna be a president for everybody, whether you live in a red state or a green state!”
OBSERVATION - Follow on commentary is rich on FR threads.
Bottom line is if one takes Hur’s report at face value, Biden escaped charges for willfully mishandling classified information because he is mentally incompetent. This was confirmed by his presser last night. If he is mentally incompetent to stand trial, he is equally disqualified to continue serving as president.
The next question is how much longer will the democrat powers that be allow him to stay in office? Movement to set the foundation for his removal under 25th Amendment conditions began last summer, with the walls coming down with MSM ceasing to edit out the increasing mental lapses biden has been exhibiting. Even allowing negative reporting of the same. This built to a crescendo last night where the press corps seemed to sense blood in the water and aggressively challenged biden. His incoherent ramblings didn’t help him at all.
Now the growing calls for him to step down or the cabinet to declare him unfit for office. Again, the MSM is doing a poor job of censorship in this regard. One panelist on CNN remarked, “This is becoming a five-alarm fire for the White House.” As I’ve said for the past 18+ months, I don’t expect Biden to make it to the Democratic National Convention in July.”
Now, what are the scenarios. I had early noted rumors that biden would step down just before the democrat convention - allowing a brokered replacement to step in. This fiasco may have altered that time line.
Still the top two contenders for president continue to be Newscum and Mike 0bama, with the tip going to newscum who’s been stealth campaigning for it for over a year. What about Harris? The powers that be know that the diversity pick for VP she represents would blow up and crash harder than the Hindenburg. She may get support to see out the end of the term as president, but not further.
This whole mess also places us in a very dangerous global situation. China may attempt to take Taiwan via the methods I’ve described in prior posts. Iran may get really froggy and sprint towards development of a nuclear bomb, in the process kicking off the massive Israel - Hezbollah war as cover. Ukraine - Russia further destabilizes. The whole could tip the US economy into a very real recession as the economic impacts of those actions hit an already weakened and recession bound economy.
So how much longer can biden hold out? The guesses are all over the place. Damage control assessment is on going and could result in him stepping down one way or another in a matter of days or months. Personally, I’m very surprised that he has lasted this long in office as he was already severely mentally and physically challenged when he took (literally) office. Last night is going to force the powers to fish or cut bait on his continued pursuit of a second term. I don’t think at this pace he can make it to the democrat convention - so i expect sooner rather than later.
Regardless, this whole episode last night has placed us into a potentially precarious situation our enemies will (not may) take advantage of.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Texas District Court Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk overruled a Biden administration attempt to block a Texas lawsuit over asylum rules that transfer authority from judges to asylum officers, saying the asylum rules could violate the U.S. constitution’s appointment clause.
Texas said the new asylum rule gives “significant additional authority” to asylum officers, limiting “immigration-judge review to denials of applications,” and upends “the entire adjudicatory system to the benefit of aliens.” (FO)
OBSERVATION - The ultimate goal of the democrats is to import enough like minded social parasites and get them citizenship to dramatically swing the political balance in the country and lock in a perpetual progressive government. These asylum rules are a means to that end.
***
Cross reference this to potential terror concerns.
Indio BP agents discovered thousands of gift cards, merchandise & 23 fake Pennsylvania drivers licenses during a checkpoint inspection. 3 of the 5 Chinese nationals arrested were AsylumSeekers awaiting their hearings.
OBSERVATION - These are not your innocent refugees fleeing to that better life here. You don’t go running around with these items unless you are up to no good.
BTW, Chinese are now the fastest growing demographic of illegals entering the country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
putin’s interview is echoing around the globe, bringing a lot of analysis and commentary. Remember, putin was a KGB officer and fully understands and implements the tools of propaganda to his (and Russia’s) benefit.
Logistics –
There are reports that Starlink has begun to be delivered en masse to the Russian military through Dubai, the accounts are activated and work in the occupied territories.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Zelensky appointed Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, replacing Valery Zaluzhny.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked Afipskiy and Ilskiy refineries in Krasnodar Krai. No serious damage reported at Afipskiy refinery, but main processing unit caught fire at Ilskiy refinery. Russian Ministry of Defense reports 19 drones were shot down over Kursk, Briansk, Oryol, Krasnodar regions and over Black Sea
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 16 Shahed drones overnight.
According to some unconfirmed reports, the Ukrainian situation at Avdiivka is deterring due lack of ammunition. Russia forcing the attack to gain a foothold on the southern margin of the town.
Russian Territory –
Oil depot “Stalnoy Kon”(Steel Horse) in Oryol region was attacked with drones overnight
Multiple fires broke out in Moscow, Russia as soon as the interview with Vladimir Putin and Tucker Carlson is released
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Shortages of munitions is becoming critical and reaching the point where Ukraine defenses may fall in some sectors. Avdiivka being one of those sectors.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to press towards Rafah
- IDF discovers massive tunnel complex beneath the central headquarters of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip
- Evidence found in the tunnel indicates many Israeli hostages were held there.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
Biden administration officials warned Israel against expanding its Gaza ground offensive to the southern city of Rafah as IAF hit Hamas targets on the border of the town.
“We have yet to see any evidence of serious planning for such an operation,” Vedant Patel, a State Department spokesman, said Thursday. Going ahead with such an offensive now, “with no planning and little thought in an area where there is sheltering of a million people would be a disaster.”
John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, said an Israel ground offensive in Rafah is “not something we would support.”
OBSERVATION - I wouldn’t show Washington any of my plans either.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Sources in the security establishment said that contact with the Hamas leader Sinwar has not only been cut off from his organization’s members but also from the mediators in the hostage negotiations.
According to the report contact with Sinwar was cut off ten days ago and the Hamas leadership has been making decisions without him. Over the past two months, the IDF has been making advances in Sinwar’s hometown of Khan Yunis. The arch-terrorist was reported to be hiding in the city, but he has yet to be located.
***
Hamas elite commander surrenders in tunnel: ‘We decided not to fight and waited for the IDF’. Nukhba force commander says he and two other terrorists left their weapons outside room in Khan Younis tunnel and raised their hands when troops approached, urges others to surrender as well or face death.
***
During a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday, the American diplomat was shown photos of a giant tunnel that was exposed in recent days underneath the central headquarters of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip. The meeting was attended by senior officials from both sides.
The Israeli leader showed Blinken proof of the misuse of the UNRWA headquarters’ underground premises for apparent terrorist tunneling purposes. Evidence found in the tunnel indicates many Israeli hostages were held there.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah claimed to have fired dozens of Katyusha rockets toward northern Israel on Thursday night just hours after Arab media reported that a senior Hezbollah military commander Abbas al Dabs, known by his nickname Hajj Abdullah, was targeted in an alleged Israeli drone strike in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on Thursday afternoon.
Some reports also mentioned another Hezbollah operative as being hit in the attack, while others mentioned multiple other persons being wounded. While originally most reports said that at least two people were killed, Lebanese media later reported that the two were only injured and were in stable condition as of Thursday evening.
In likely response and warning to the 30 or so rockets fired into Israel, Israeli Air Force chief sayed dozens of aircraft were currently operating over Lebanon. Hundreds to be mobilized in case of war vs. Hezbollah. Finally, that the IDF is moving the 36th Division from Gaza to Lebanon front.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Syrian Observatory - Iranian militias transport weapons and ammunition from Deir ez-Zor to fortified sites belonging to Hezbollah on the Syrian-Lebanese border in anticipation of American strikes at those former sites.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense claims “Our air defenses shot down two drones west of Damascus that came from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan.”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israel is preparing a ground assault into Rafah that could prove to hard to separate non-combatants from combatants. Egypt and other arab nations along with the US may complain about it, but there is little they can do to stop it short of military intervention. Egypt won’t risk damage to its border wall that could permit thousands, even hundreds of thousands to pour into it. With the bulk of Hama’s remaining combat forces being systematically taken out in Khan Yunis, Rafah represents the last possible hide out for Hamas leadership and held hostages.
At the same time, Israel is moving incrementally to prepare to attack Hezbollah in the north. Besides counter attacks, Israel is conducting a strategic level operations hitting Hezbollah key leaders and sites, efforts that will progressively weaken Hezbollah’s response to the eventual attack from Israel.
Timeline for the hit against Hezbollah? Israel knows and may be telegraphing it through its estimation on when Gaza will be fully subdued and Hamas eliminated as a threat. Israeli announcements continue to suggest that it would take nearly a year for that process to be complete - placing it roughly towards the end of this year.
SMH - that would place it right smack dab in the middle of potential near civil war election based rioting and potential constitutional crisis with a figure head president still in charge.
Misc of Note –
El Niño appears to have peaked and is set to come to a rapid end over the next few months. Climate prediction forecasts indicate sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific will rapidly cool over the next several weeks, with now a 79% chance of the Pacific dropping below El Niño status in April.
The La Niña phase typically correlates to dry weather in the southern U.S. and cooler, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the North.
OBSERVATION - Typical of El Nino - my home here in the Redoubt has seen above normal temps (except for the short period in January) and below normal precipitation. The flip back to La Nina may bring blow normal temps and above normal precipitation as seen in the previous winter. We’ll have to watch to see how this pans out, and I may need to up my pre-winter wood supply accordingly. Plan accordingly for you homes as well.
Gamblers aren't going to put up with 'protesters'... my guess is no one's going to protest the game.
And money spent on Social Security etc?
The original ‘advantage plans’ for the elderly - the companies offing it - were paid $100,000 per year per person signed up. Evert year. It’s ‘health care’ grifters getting the big money.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
A couple more states are sending NG contingents to reinforce TX efforts at the border.
***
Authorities on Friday nabbed a 15-year-old migrant suspected of shooting a tourist and firing at cops in Times Square, law enforcement sources said.
The US Marshals Fugitive Recovery Task Force took the Venezuelan teen into custody in Yonkers at around 3:30 p.m., according to the sources.
OBSERVATION - I noted a few days ago of the rise in Venezuelan gangs of illegals in NYC. Here is another example. As these various ethnic groups jell together in our metropolitan areas, they are further contributing to the Balkanization of the same cities, setting the stage for increased ethnic conflicts and crime between illegal groups and pre-existing gangs.
***
Saturday’s early - watch out for pro-hamas ‘protests’ in major cities across the country thru Sunday.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S Navy conducted two drills in the South China Sea this week, including a joint trilateral drill with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Royal Australian Navy and the third iteration of the Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Philippines.
Meanwhile the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is currently in Guam on a port visit.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A passenger on board a Lufthansa flight from Thailand to Germany died Thursday, after his fellow travelers watched in horror as blood gushed out of his mouth and nose.
The unidentified 63-year-old German man was seen boarding the Airbus A380 in Bangkok shortly before midnight visibly sick, with “cold sweats” and “breathing much too quickly,” Karin Missfelder recounted to Swiss German outlet Blick.
OBSERVATION - No word out yet as to what the cause of this incident was. But if a disease like Marburg or Ebola, the transmission threat to those on board is deadly high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Most of the political soap opera focuses on biden - described below.
More heat being brought to bear on McConnell to step down. I suspect that he may be able to ride this out to the elections, but if the republicans manage somehow to retake the senate, he may not succeed to be the majority leader.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
The spin factory following yesterday’s debacle is flying off its ball bearings, and internal democrat cohesion is becoming shredded. Calls to circle the wagons around biden are bouncing off calls for him to at a minimum step out of the presidential race - including those democrat big buck supporters.
Rumors are also present indicating that biden is looking to make AG Merrick Garland the scapegoat for the bombshell report which highlighted his mental challenges. Increased pressure from some republicans on AG Garland to either move forward with 25th amendment proceedings against biden or initiate prosecution for his crimes of mishandling and releasing without authorization highly classified materials.
Special prosecutor Hue is facing backlash from the WH for politicizing his investigation.
Another interesting theory poking its head up out there is that being designated as mentally deficient to defend himself in court was a ploy to prevent him from actually being charged with crimes associated with not only the classified documents, but other alleged crimes he is said to have committed - such as those surrounding hunter and Ukraine.
Further speculation that the powers that be are pressing forward to off ramp biden sooner than they originally had anticipated.
Either way, this story isn’t going away soon, as long as journalists keep getting the go ahead to press biden and the WH on the mental deficiency issue.
***
In light of biden’s disastrous press conference the other night, focus will be intense on his performance (literal) at the SOTU next month. As with previous addresses by other presidents, it will be scripted and posted on the teleprompters. More and more biden has failed to be able to follow the teleprompters as speeches and even more dangerous are the times he goes off script. If his presentation is any where near as poor as his past press conference, the pressure for him to step down or get 25th’d will grow exponentially.
Political drama could grow, depending how badly he spirals down between now and then it the wild hope that he will announce is resignation at the STOU. That in its self would toss the country into wild spasms. We’ll just have to wait and see how his damage control goes.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The spike in migrants crossing into the Tucson Sector returned last week, with daily apprehensions numbers jumping back to the levels seen during the record-shattering month of December. Tucson Sector agents apprehended nearly 14,000 migrants during the past week.
Tucson Sector Chief Patrol Agent John Modlin posted a weekly update on “X” showing the return a major levels of migrants being apprehended. During the previous week, Modlin stated his agents encountered 13,800 migrants.
China –
Chinese stock market continues to stagger as its economy continues downward into the dumps. Now foreign investments that were high last year in expectation of explosive, post wuhan growth, are bailing before they lose any more money.
North/South Korea –
The Republic of Korea Navy’s 42nd Cheonghae unit – which includes destroyer ROKS Dae Jo-yeong (DDH-977), an embarked Super Lynx helicopter, ROKN SEALs, Republic of Korea Marines and a medical team – is also heading to the Gulf of Aden. The unit left left Jinhae Naval Base on Feb.1, according to a South Korea Ministry of National Defense news release.
Formally known as the ROKN Somali Sea Escort Task Group and built around a ROKN destroyer, the unit has deployed on counter-piracy missions since 2009 and has carried out a number of combat engagements with Somali pirates, notably in January 2011, when eight Somali pirates were killed and five were captured when the unit successfully rescued the crew of a hijacked tanker.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Continued commentary on the Carleson - putin interview bouncing around the inter webs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 23 of 31 Shahed drones, launched by Russia overnight. 7 persons killed, including 3 children and 57 wounded as result of Russian drone attack in Kharkiv overnight 5 persons wounded as result of Shahed drones attacks in Odesa
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Expect continued heavy fighting around Avdiivka.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Plans go forward for civilian evacuation from Rafah.
- Conflict at the Lebanese border is threatening to escalate following Israeli target killing of Hezbollah officials and retaliatory rocket fire by Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
Egyptian Foreign Minister - Any increase in the scope of military actions in Gaza will have serious consequences - in likely reference to the impending ground assault into Rafah.
UN Spokesman - Civilians in Rafah need protection and any forced mass displacement should not be carried out
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, who is currently on a visit to Washington, DC, cancelled a scheduled meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, which was scheduled for Friday, due to Guterres’ statements against Israel, Channel 12 News reported.
According to the report, Ohana made clear that he would not give Guterres legitimacy by holding the meeting.
***
Israel’s military response in the Gaza Strip to the shock October 7 attack by Hamas has been “over the top,” US President Joe Biden says.
“I’m of the view, as you know, that the conduct of the response in Gaza, in the Gaza Strip, has been over the top,” he tells reporters at the White House during an evening address that was announced only about two hours earlier.
“I’m pushing very hard now to deal with this hostage ceasefire,” Biden says. “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving, a lot of innocent people who are in trouble and dying, and it’s gotta stop.”
The remarks, some of Biden’s sharpest public criticism to date of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, come as the Democratic president has come under increasing domestic pressure to press Israel on a ceasefire.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli Army to start preparing the evacuations of 1.2 million civilians from the city of Rafah near the border between Egypt and Gaza.
Yedioth Ahronoth - The Israeli army approved a military operation in Rafah.
IDF notes there are at least 12 active smuggling tunnels in Rafah crossing into Egypt.
A ground invasion of the city is imminent as the IDF is preparing to liquidate 4 Hamas battalions there.
Hamas warns of a “massacre” if an Israeli military operation is launched in Rafah, south of Gaza.
Egypt has sent security reinforcements and patrols to the border with Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin: “Our goal is to change the security situation in the north in a manner that will allow us to safely return the residents home to a state of security.
“We are determined to change the security reality that is already shifting these days and continue to prepare for an expansion of the war and to go on the offensive - this is our mission. We will continue to carry out the defensive battle, to strike Hezbollah, and to deny its capabilities”
Latest Hezbollah barrage counted some 40 missiles. This followed a strike that likely targeted Hezbollah officials on a vehicle in the village of Jadra, some 60 kilometers from the Israeli border. Footage from the scene shows at least three casualties
Hezbollah’s Nasrallah met with Iranian foreign minister in Lebanon yesterday
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF airstrikes targeted a number of points in the Damascus countryside suspected of being linked to Hezbollah/Iran.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A coalition of Iran-backed militants promised to resume “painful strikes” on U.S. troops based in Iraq and Syria in a statement on Friday following major U.S. counterattacks for the deaths of three soldiers.
The Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of militia groups that includes one deemed responsible for the Jan. 28 suicide drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, said it would suspend military operations on Jan. 30 as the U.S. threatened significant retaliation. Since U.S. forces did not vacate the region, “painful strikes and broad attacks” will come, the Islamic Resistance said in a statement.
“The opportunity that the Islamic Resistance today granted to the occupation forces to leave the Holy Land as a lifeline, it did not obtain yesterday,” a translation of the statement read.
The militants mourned the death of a senior militia leader of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the major groups in the coalition, at the hands of the U.S. military.
***
US forces continue to engage Houthi drone / missile launch sites, restricting actual attacks on shipping.
Overnight, Houthi seaborne drones were detected and destroyed by allied forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israeli operations in Rafah will prove to be one of the most difficult actions seen in modern warfare. The displacement of over a million civilians while at the same time engaging hamas terrorists who are staging their ‘last stand’ is daunting. However, Rafah with its estimated 8 battalions of Hamas is a must do operation to ensure total defeat of Hamas in Gaza. It is further made necessary due to the underground network that is similar to what has been found further north - tied into smuggling tunnels into Egypt.
It is uncertain if and to what extent Egypt may intervene militarily . If they are consistent with previous statements - they are more concerned with gazans spilling into Egypt and bringing their problems with them.
Statements from world leaders indicate they don’t want these ‘non-combatants’ displaced. In doing so, they are reinforcing hamas’s doctrine of human shields. These same nations decry that use of civilians, but are using it to force Israel into their desires for a cease fire and eventual forced two state solution.
I think the Israeli leadership has already factored this in. It realizes that it is increasingly having to go it alone - especially as biden loses ground to the pro-hamas factions in the democrat party.
Expect an even higher level of negative reporting on Israeli actions as the ground operation in Rafah progresses.
In the north - there is a cycle of escalation developing between Israel and Hezbollah. Many of Israel’s air strikes on Hezbollah targets are beginning to hurt, especially those hitting senior leadership. Hezbollah has started increasing the number of large rocket barrages - gradually, but consistently. In doing so, they expose launch sites - most of which are underground - to targeting by IAF air strikes - taking them out of the picture for when the war really starts. As Hezbollah exposes its missile infrastructure more and more, they are losing more of it.
Rhetoric continues to build on the Israeli side and intensive planning has been well underway for years is getting detailed updating. Israel is close to initiating ground operations at any time.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” - actions are expected to resume in Syria and Iraq. We will have to see how aggressive our counter and preemptive strikes will be in deterring attacks.
Aggressive CAPs have kept the Houthi attacks on shipping mostly suppressed. A shift to use of seaborne drones is a possibility - but they are currently not seen as a serious threat at this time. Another factor that is probably hindering the Houthi efforts has been the withdrawal of Iranian command / intelligence vessels out of the immediate region and into safe harbors. The possibility of sending these ship to the sea bottom must be very real to Iran, and with good reason since they have not been taken off the target list by the US.
Pakistan –
With most results now declared in Pakistan’s election, no political force has a clear majority but candidates linked to jailed former PM Imran Khan have won most seats so far.
The results have defied expectations and Mr Khan is claiming victory.
However another ex-PM, Nawaz Sharif, says his party has emerged the largest and wants others to join a coalition.
On Saturday Pakistan’s army chief urged the country to move on from the politics of “anarchy and polarisation”.
General Asim Munir said that a stable hand was needed to unite “Pakistan’s diverse polity”, and to make “democracy functional and purposeful”.
OBSERVATION - The next several weeks will see jockeying of smaller coalitions to see if they can get a better deal from Khan or Sharif. Very dangerous period as near-civil war broke out with the arrest over a year ago of Khan. Remember, Pakistan is a nuclear armed nation and recent trends has seen a shift to a more radical islam over moderates. Internal instability or even civil war could enable a terrorist group to get their hands on a warhead - with devastating results to either India or US.
Venezuela -
Venezuela is backing up its threats to annex part of Guyana and secure access to some of the world’s largest oil finds in more than a decade by moving light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to the two countries’ border in what is quickly turning into a new security challenge for the Biden administration.
OBSERVATION - Venezuela is progressing step by step on this operation. When they first announced their claim and that they were ready to seize the Guyana’s territory, some of the first actions were the construction of new military bases near the border. Now, these bases are being completed and army elements are moving into them. US and UK have pledged support to Guyana (former UK commonwealth nation), but as noted, support from the US may well be muted given our internal turmoil over military and related support to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. As it stands right now, the US is virtually powerless to stop Venezuela when they decide to strike.
Misc of Note –
The sun’s magnetic poles are about to flip, and it could cause lower latitude northern lights, more intense solar storms and potential danger for astronauts and satellite communication. However, experts predict there’s no overt cause for concern.
Stanford solar physicist Phil Scherrer described the process - “The sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, go to zero and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. This is a regular part of the solar cycle.”
Mike Murray, program director at the Delta College Planetarium, predicted that this year’s pole reversal, which will likely happen between April and August, should be “nothing to worry about.”
OBSERVATION - Noting a growing trend of doom porn regarding solar magnetic pole flips. With it an abundance of just flat out misinformation. This has been going on for the entire life of the sun - and has happened dozens of times during our lives - and no doom has occurred. Many of the doomers link the large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the pole flip - nothing is further from the truth. Those CMEs are due to solar flare activity, not reversals and some of the biggest associated during period in between reversals.
My bottom line is I monitor solar activity daily for decades now. The threat is from massive X class solar flares, but reversals are not the threat some are making them out to be.