Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
The Environmental Protection Agency has announced stricter standards for fine particle pollution, generally known as soot.
The annual fine particle standard will be lowered from 12 micrograms per cubic meter to 9. The tighter standard, first proposed last year, will obligate states and localities to monitor soot levels and take action if they are out of compliance. EPA officials estimate the change will yield public health benefits of up to $46 billion by 2032, including up to 800,000 avoided cases of asthma symptoms, 4,500 avoided premature deaths, and 290,000 avoided lost workdays.
Administrators and advocates on the call predicted blowback from affected industries but said that for every $1 spent on compliance, $77 would be returned in the form of health benefits.
OBSERVATION - Just what orifice do these jokers pull these numbers out from? Absurd. This is just another brick being added to the pile to eventually shut down coal power in the US as well as the use of diesel engines. Regulate them to death.
***
California lawmakers re-introduced a proposal to mandate universal healthcare and ban private healthcare. Experts say this would cost $391 billion per year — or $100 billion more than the entire 2024-2025 state budget and reduce the overall availability of healthcare as doctors flee to higher-paying states that allow private care.
OBSERVATION - It has been a while since the issue/idea of single payer universal health care reared its head. This concept, however, fits well into the general goals of the WEF et al to control global ‘health’. I suspect we may see more of these efforts in the coming years.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
No significant actions against TX by the regime - with the closeness to the court date on the whole matter and the negative view it has cast on it, they may be trying to put it on the back burner for now.
***
A core group of radical leftists are espousing a campaign against conservatives by threatening to come after them in their homes, businesses and churches if the republicans win in this year’s elections. Current focus of this anger is being directed towards an effort called “Project 2025”, an endeavor to ensure the next conservative president is ready to govern from day one,” the Heritage Foundation’s Mike Gonzalez wrote months before the protest took place.
“We need to go find out where they live, where they go to church, who they hang around with, and birddog they (sic) a—-,” one activist declared to the crowd.
“We have to embarrass them. That is a tactic,” they said. “Find out where they live. Find out where their office is!” said another speaker, urging the crowd to “disrupt business as usual” for conservatives.
OBSERVATION - Just how much traction this ‘movement’ gets is not clear at this moment. From the article, it seems they are seeking to rekindle the same, at your front door, intimidation tactics they attempted against USSC justices over Roe V Wade. A ready source of foot soldiers and support is the always present elements of Antifa who’s presence would likely turn the violence level up a big degree.
I would suspect that much of the initial protests following 2024 elections would be centered in or near the common, radical leftist blue city havens. How extensive will it be in red areas? BLM/Antifa attempted that in 2020, bussing numbers of protestors into rural red areas - only to beat a humiliating run back to those busses when faced by a larger, and many times well armed, population not in any mood for their nonsense.
Here in 2024, a Trump win will likely produce much more violent riots than 2020, and risk a much higher death count as both sides will be gunned up better this time around.
***
The Aloha State’s highest court upheld a man’s gun-carry conviction on Wednesday after rejecting landmark decisions from the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).
Hawaii’s Supreme Court reversed a lower court decision that found charges leveled against Christopher Wilson for carrying a gun without a permit violated his rights. Instead, the court ruled its state constitution provides no gun-rights protections whatsoever. That’s despite it including a provision protecting the right of the people to keep and bear arms identical to the one in the federal Constitution.
“Article I, section 17 of the Hawaiʻi Constitution mirrors the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution,” the Hawaiian court wrote in Hawaii v. Wilson. “We read those words differently than the current United States Supreme Court. We hold that in Hawaiʻi there is no state constitutional right to carry a firearm in public.”
The ruling directly contrasts with the core holdings at the center of SCOTUS’s gun rights precedents. The state supreme court’s ruling explicitly rejects the federal supreme court’s findings in 2008’s District of Columbia v. Heller and 2022’s New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen. The lower court’s straightforward rejection of the higher court’s Second Amendment jurisprudence could provoke SCOTUS to take up the case and issue a rebuke, as it did when the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled protections don’t extend to modern weapons in 2016’s Caetano.
OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous and significant challenge to the USSC and the constitution. The USSC decision is a pretty clear and straight forward one. This act by Hawaii that shows a path toward the ‘Great Divorce’ desired by the left.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Banking is still a very real concern, and that concern is growing.
US banks hold about $2.7 trillion in commercial real estate loans. The majority of that, about 80%, according to Goldman Sachs economists, is held by smaller, regional banks — the ones that the US government hasn’t classified as “too big to fail.”
Much of that debt is about to mature, and, in a troubled market, regional banks might have problems collecting on those loans. More than $2.2 trillion will come due between now and the end of 2027, according to data firm Trepp.
The Financial Stability Oversight Council, of which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler are members, released a report last December that cited commercial real estate as a major potential financial risk.
“As losses from a [commercial real estate] loan portfolio accumulate, they can spill over into the broader financial system,” they wrote. “Sales of financially distressed properties can reduce market values of nearby properties, lead to a broader downward CRE valuation spiral, and even reduce municipalities’ property tax revenues.”
OBSERVATION - The commercial real estate market is in a world of incredible hurt. Overbuilt and under occupied, owners cannot get enough revenue from leases to pay the loans - even in many cases those loans obtained at the pre-Fed high rates. Dangerous times are approaching that could tip the cart over in a major manner.
***
For the first time in more than 20 years, the United States purchased more goods from Mexico than China in 2023, highlighting a change in international trade and spotlighting America’s de-risking efforts.
Last year, the United States imported more than $475.6 billion in goods from its southern neighbor and exported about $323.2 billion, according to new Census Bureau data.
The United States ran a $152.38 billion trade deficit with Mexico, up 16 percent from the previous year.
By comparison, the United States bought roughly $427 billion in goods from China and shipped nearly $148 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with Beijing was close to $280 billion, narrowing by 27 percent from 2022.
OBSERVATION - This marks a significant shift in how the US markets/businesses are trying to have more secure off-country sources of materials and products. This shift is clearly not helping China’s wobbly business sector as other countries are going to similar source changes to secure better supplies of the things they once imported from China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The Supreme Court hears oral argument in the Colorado ballot case at 9:00 a.m. this morning — the case of Trump v. Anderson. Did the Colorado Supreme Court err in ordering President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot under section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment?
***
The soap opera continues. On Tuesday, reports surfaced that embattled Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel will be stepping down from her position after the South Carolina primary. Now it seems McDaniel may be flopping back. In a recent memo she states -
“With a news cycle full of palace intrigue and speculation surrounding all of us, I want to take the time to reassure all of you that I am still hard at work as RNC Chairwoman and building a machine that will elect Republicans up and down the ballot in November. “
We’ll have to see what happens after the SC primary to know what will happen next.
***
Congress will soon be adjuring (again) and not return until the end of the month. When they do, they will be facing the deadline of dealing with budget issues coming due the first of March - giving them only 6 days to accomplish some sort of compromise bill to fund the govt for the rest of the FY. Speaker Johnson’s capitulation on the current extension has brought him under the guns of conservative republicans and any similar bill may not make out out of the House. This could force affected sectors of the govt to state shutting down in March. Big sticking points
- Closing down the border
- Funding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
If Johnson skirts around the core republican contingency, his seat could be vacated and an ever greater threat to republican control could occur, as I”ve noted in the past, some RINOS have rumored that they’d vote for a democrat speaker the next time around.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
On Monday, Biden said that he just met with François Mitterand. Mitterand died in 1996.
Yesterday at a fundraiser, Biden said he met Helmut Kohl about January 6th. Kohl died in 2017.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Chinese hackers managed to hide in U.S. infrastructure for up to five years, federal agencies warned on Wednesday, potentially allowing them the opportunity to launch a cyberattack against the United States.
According to a public cybersecurity warning released this week, which was compiled by multiple federal intelligence agencies in conjunction with British, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand agencies, “PRC state-sponsored” hackers focused on major infrastructure “primarily in Communications, Energy, Transportation Systems, and Waste and Wastewater Systems Sectors — in the continental and non-continental United States and its territories.”
The report notes that the hackers used tactics that make it difficult for the infrastructure companies to notice their intrusions. It also adds that their “choice of targets and pattern of behavior is not consistent with traditional cyber espionage or intelligence gathering operations.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-hackers-infrastructure/2024/02/07/id/1152711/
OBSERVATION - The stories of this penetration into our infrastructure network continue. What isn’t being noted are the probability of firmware embedded into Chinese-made components that keep getting uses here, in spite of warnings and bans. The firmware can also create backdoor access whenever China wants to press the key.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
This morning CBP sources exclusively told Fox News Channel that the number of apprehensions of those illegally crossing the southern border has reached an alarming 1,000,000 so far this fiscal year.
FY 2024 began on October 1, 2023. This is the earliest that the 1M milestone has ever been reached. In the last 24 hours, 6800 illegal immigrants were apprehended at the southern border. For comparison, the total for FY 2023 was 909,182 in the same period.
OBSERVATION - Numbers speak for themselves.
***
The regime is threatening the citizens of the US in a statement released yesterday. White House says ICE will reduce deportations, detention capacity if Republicans don’t pass border bill.
OBSERVATION - This level of aggressiveness and distain towards the citizens of the US is something I never thought I’d see in my life time.
China –
(H/T TIK) China has revealed an ambitious plan to transform its military operations through the integration of more advanced unmanned systems, a strategic shift toward drone-led special operations in war scenarios including a potential conflict with the US over Taiwan.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this month that China’s military plans to replace humans with machines in special operations overseas to mitigate the high risks of such missions.
Scientists are working with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of flying vast distances, diving deep underwater and lying in wait for long periods, the SCMP report said.
The PLA’s 78092 unit has revealed details about a hypothetical overseas special operations plan published in the Fire Control & Command Control journal, aiming to help Chinese companies, engineers and scientists better understand the military’s needs and strategic goals.
The PLA’s plan says the hypothetical operation is set in 2035 when a small-scale conflict between China and an unnamed neighboring country occurs, with the caveat that both sides agree to limit their equipment to small arms including small boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns.
https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/china-leaks-a-blueprint-for-drone-war-dominance/
OBSERVATION - The Ukraine war has kicked the evolution of combat use of drones to a whole higher level. The technology has been looked at for years, but the off the shelf adaptations in Ukraine has blown that path out of the water. China seems to be looking to go forward with a more rigid implementation plan. What it is ignoring is that degree of flexibility being seen on the battle field of today. Same blinders approach by the US. AI and quantum computing may quickly alter this concept and make drones even more deadly.
***
Follow-up. Yesterday I posted about China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank notifying its clients in Russia and Belarus that it is ending all of its operations there.
Later reports have indicated that this is due to payment issues associated with Western sanctions, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Vedomosti reported on Feb. 7, citing sources. Sources told Vedomosti that all payments have been impacted, not just those that use SWIFT.
North/South Korea –
With all the recent talk regarding NK initiating a war with the south, a quick review of its conventional forces is due.
The North Korean Army currently has about 800,000 troops, over 3,000 tanks, 3,000 other AFV, or armored fighting vehicles for infantry, and nearly 8,000 artillery pieces, including 2,000 rocket launchers. Most of these weapons are pointed south and stationed on or near the DMZ. North Korea has the means to be dangerous, for a little while anyway. Fuel shortages, elderly equipment and lack of maintenance means that a lot of this gear would not stay operational for long. As an example, the past 25 years or so of deferred maintenance, as in none on tube artillery pieces including the guns on tanks, means almost all of those can only fire one round because their recuperator seals have deteriorated so much.
North Korea has two armored divisions, 12 motorized infantry and 23 non-motorized infantry divisions used only for static defense along the DMZ.
Nearly every adult male serves at least six years in the military, the big problem is that years of economic problems and failed harvests have left the troops poorly equipped, often hungry, and increasingly insubordinate.
The South Korean military has half as many men, and some women, in the military. The southerners are better trained, armed, supported, and led.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/20240208.aspx
OBSERVATION - Back in my active duty days, waaaay back in the Before Years, NK was a more substantial threat because of the money that came in from the communist realm to keep their equipment and training more up to date. That all ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union splintering. Never the less, any war would be extremely ugly for the first weeks.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Moscow, through travel agencies in Syria, is reportedly recruiting mercenaries for the war against Ukraine — the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. They reportedly spend time in combat units fighting in the Aleppo region before being shipped off to Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
Follow-up. Yesterday I posted about China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank notifying its clients in Russia and Belarus that it is ending all of its operations there.
Later reports have indicated that this is due to payment issues associated with Western sanctions, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Vedomosti reported on Feb. 7, citing sources. Sources told Vedomosti that all payments have been impacted, not just those that use SWIFT.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
RUMINT –
F-16’s being given to Ukraine reportedly will come with long range munitions of an unspecified type that can given a significant penetration into Crimea and Russia border areas.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 17 Shahed drones overnight.
Fighting intensified at Avdiivka, with Russian forces clawing to gain a foothold in the southern part of the city.
In the drone wars, it has been revealed that Ukraine has developed a new jet powered drone with considerable speed and range. Capable of carrying IIRC a warhead of 300 lbs or so.
Meanwhile, evidence that Russia is using its newest, supersonic cruise missiles against Ukraine for the first time.
Russian Territory –
There has been a MASSIVE explosion in Votkinsk, Russia. The Votkinsk Machine Building Plant - manufacturer of several Russian ICBMs - is headquartered here. This is over 1000 km from the front lines.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ukraine is feeling the strain of the loss of artillery ammunition to counter the Russian batteries. Ukraine’s defense has successfully kept Russian forces at bay due to quick, accurate fire and counterbattery support suppression Russian artillery support. This has left its European allies scrambling to increase production now that war stocks have been drawn down to extremely low levels. Ukraine still hold an advantage in drones providing early warning and targeting support and Ukraine is still able to provide devastating fire on Russian columns approaching the front, but sustainable fire during the rest of the fight is lacking.
ISRAEL –
Now 4 months into the Gaza War
Key overnight developments -
- Israel begins preparations to enter Rafah.
- US Reaper drone takes out two leaders of the Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for the attack that killed 3 US soldiers and wounded dozens others.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
The Palestinian President received the US Secretary of State in Ramallah
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday met in Tel Aviv with Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, two former military chiefs who joined Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet after the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel.
The talks were to focus on “the hostages and the strong desire that we both have to see them returned to their families, the work that’s being done to that end”, Blinken said as they opened the meeting.
“The most urgent issue is of course to find ways to bring back the hostages,” Gantz told Blinken.
***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference on Wednesday, during which he criticized the executive order signed by US President Joe Biden to impose sanctions on four residents of Judea and Samaria accused of violence against Palestinian Arabs.
“This order is a very severe and inappropriate thing which harms an entire population of law-abiding citizens, among whom are soldiers who fell in the fight to eliminate Hamas. If they were using it equally- they would have imposed sanctions on Palestinians as well,” the Prime Minister said when asked on the matter.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-18/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered troops to prepare to enter the overcrowded southern Gaza city of Rafah. According to the report, the operation in Rafah is not expected to begin in the near future. Israel will first need to evacuate civilians, and so will not be able to operate with 1.2 million Gazans in the region. Israel’s main challenge is finding a destination to which to transfer them, especially with Israel continuing to object to their return to northern Gaza. Any operation would likewise require coordination with Egypt.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces bombed areas in the southern border city of Rafah where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering on Thursday.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IDF strikes on Homs reportedly killed several Hezbollah soldiers.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi managed to fire some more rockets, with no effect, while US combat patrols managed to locate and destroy Houthi drone/missile positions getting ready to fire.
See Iraq on US strike that is believed to have killed two IRGC related leaders / advisors to Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for the deaths of three US soldiers last week.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordan Government media - The Jordanian king leaves on a tour visiting Western capitals in order to pressure an end to the war
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The progress of the Israeli S Gaza campaign towards Rafah is moving forward. No public word from Egypt on the announced plans. Rafah is a community built at the Egyptian border crossing into Gaza. In the past Egypt has made clear it will not permit IDF operations in the city without its OK. Now, a vast number of arabs have congregated there as a safe zone from fighting further north. So not only does Israel have to deal with Egypt, but where to move these refugees to and how to safeguard relief supplies coming into Gaza.
Israel is already nibbling on the outskirts of the town, probably conduction battle field preparations for the full scale attack. How Israel handles Egypt is going to be one of the most delicate political moves they have faced since the founding of the country. Bottom line is, one way or another, they will enter the city and clear it of Hamas and related terrorists.
The taking out of the Kata’ib Hezbollah leaders responsible for the deadly attack on the US base in Jordan will definitely stir up the pot. The Kata’ib Hezbollah had earlier announced a ‘cease fire’ against the US to prevent further embarrassment to Iraq. Expect more attacks.
The quickness in targeting and more importantly timeliness of the intel is impressive. Knowing the exact civilian vehicle among thousands, and its course and destination - impressive. US still has some good HUMINT assets on the ground - something Kata’ib Hezbollah may think twice about.
Iraq -
February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region. There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. 2 Kataib Hezbollah commanders were in the vehicle called, Abu Baqir Al-Saadi and Arkan Al-Alawi.
Parts including one of the six blades from a AGM-114R9X “Hellfire” missile launched by a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” drone have been discovered at the scene of the strike in Baghdad
Iraqi security forces almost immediately sealed off access to the ‘Green Zone’ in anticipation of protests against the US over the strike.
Misc of Note –
The Carleson- putin interview is going to be smothering the interwebs for a considerable time, so I’d thought I’d note some things here as not to muddle up the important stuff.
- First, he is a journalist and they do interviews like this.
- Second - I will not take putins comments or claims at the gospel truth. He is KGB through and thru and understands the use of misinformation and the current political climate in the US to stir things up. There will be copious amounts of - see putin said x so it is true - over the next days. I won’t go down that rabbit hole.
- Whether you are pro or anti Ukraine war, be very clear about this. As i just stated putin will make every opportunity to present his ‘case’ for the war in Ukraine and shine it in his favor. He is also in an election cycle and having some problems for his handling of the war, as well as other economic matters. He will use this interview internally so show what a great leader he is.
- I certainly hope Tucker isn’t stupid enough to believe he isn’t going to be used on the above. i also certainly hope he doesn’t jump down on one side or the other - his ability to be in a sense neutral is critical to his reporting on this. If he takes putin’s unsubstantiated claims and runs with it as the untarnished truth, then his credibility comes into question.
- Publish the interview, but verify the claims made throughly.
- Finally and perhaps a little redundant, putin knows passions here regarding funding of the war are peaking. It is to his advantage to enlarge the gap between the two groups as it undermines overall western support of Ukraine. He’ll say what ever is necessary to enlarge the debate.
For the record, right now I’m neutral on the interview. I think it is good to hear what he has to say - the closely examine the claims to ground truth reality.
Who gets custody of these Hawai'ian 'children' in this divorce?
Japan? China? The Philippines?
Could real Americans get visitation rights?
Yesterday was a day of stark contrasts. It is as if the crazy dial got kicked up a couple notches all at once. Fallout is going to be intense over the next week - at least.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
One of the principle, driving forces leading the WEF/Global reset, Yuval Noah Harari, on Jan 31 posted a note on “X” reflecting on the recent set backs to their efforts.
“Populist leaders are on the rise around the world, attacking the liberal global order. They haven’t explained what will replace the order they have destroyed, and the result is the disorder, chaos and violence we are seeing today.”
OBSERVATION - In reality, the WEF/globalists have created much of the disorder, chaos and violence seen in the world today. It is the mechanism by which they look to eventually causing the global system to crash and everyone run to them to provide the solution to putting things back together again.
***
Recent address to Australian parliament, Australian senator, Malcolm Roberts, courageously exposes the WEF’s ‘Great Reset’ agenda.
“The WEF have now turned their evil agenda to food. The campaign against farming is really a campaign against one of the necessities of life—food.”
“Who controls the food supply controls the people. Who controls the energy can control whole continents. Who controls money can control the world. The World Economic Forum—and the predatory billionaires they represent—are currently trying to do all three.”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
See Illegal Immigration for latest lawfare victory for TX
***
There were some minor protests against Trump outside the USSC building lead by the typical Antifa rabble who proceeded to block the road with a REMOVE TRUMP banner.
***
A considerable number of protests/rallies by pro-hamas elements are scheduled for this weekend. This is the end of the “week of action” scheduled to end on Sunday, Feb 11th.
Embedded in these protests may be pockets of vandalism and minor violence. Also a potential for highway/road blockages. Be alert to your local news in blue metro areas for their activities.
I would expect protests at the Superbowl in Las Vegas with the purpose of delaying spectators from reaching the stadium. I have not seen any announcements for such a protest, but it is a big, juicy target that would gather a lot of visibility for their ‘cause’.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
The nation’s debt and deficit crisis will significantly worsen, starting with the next fiscal (FY2025), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned Wednesday, releasing its budget and economic outlook for 2024-2034.
The public debt is projected to rise from $26.2 trillion at the end of 2023 to $48.3 trillion at the end of 2034, pushing the amount of federal debt higher than the nation’s economic output:
- As a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the debt is poised to rise from 97.3% in FY2023 to 99.0% of GDP in FY2024, then hit 101.7% in 2025.
- Debt will then continue to rise, to 116% of GDP in 2034 – and 172% of GDP in 2054. The highest percent on record is 106%, set in 1946 as the U.S. was coming out of WWII.
- The debt increase from FY2024-FY2034 will be fueled by steep increases in mandatory spending (such as Social Security and Medicare) and interest costs.
- Beginning in FY2025, net interest costs will be the highest percentage of GDP on record (since 1940).
OBSERVATION - This is developing into the scenario that the WEF is pushing for globally - bankrupt nations not able to service their debts.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
For fiscal year 2024, the Air Force, hoping to retain more of its experienced airmen, has automatically raised the maximum number of years enlisted members may serve at a given rank. Eligible airmen may serve an additional two years without a promotion before they’re forced to exit the service, according to an Air Force spokeswoman. The maximum time an enlisted airmen may spend in a given rank is called high year of tenure. The Air Force high year of tenure extensions apply to enlisted grades of airman basic through senior master sergeant to keep experienced service members in the ranks and keep the Air Force mission ready, Air Force spokeswoman Master Sgt. Deana Heitzman told Stars and Stripes by email Dec. 8.
OBSERVATION - For those of us who’ve served, we recognize that those unable to advance due to who knows what - often poor performance or overfilling of a particular MOS, is necessary to make room for more potentially qualified service members to advance up their ranks. Creating a log jam like this only constipates the system upstream - making it hard to retain those enlisted members.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
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The Supreme Court heard oral argument in the Colorado ballot case yesterday, and the case presented by Colorado appears to have been sunk by every justice of the court. Court observers indicate that there is a real possibility of a 9-0 decision against Colorado given the skepticism noted even by the courts most liberal members. The court didn’t announce when the opinion for the case would be announced - common policy for all cases - but given the time sensitive requirement to get one out there, it could come very quickly.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
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Yesterday was a thermonuclear dumpster fire for biden. It is a clear turning point for his campaign and presidency
Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report was released, and it was damning. Hur found biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials.” Further, he has significant cognitive issues & “did not remember when he was vice-president” & forgot when his term ended. No criminal charges are needed, it says.
Among some of the critical findings were that the president’s memory “appeared to have significant limitations”.
His handling/storage of highly classified, compartmented documents was unbelievably irresponsible. The report said the files were discovered “near a collapsed dog crate, a dog bed, a Zappos box, an empty bucket, a broken lamp wrapped with duct tape, potting soil, and synthetic firewood”.
(SPECIAL NOTE - I worked with compartmented classified material for much of my active duty time. By its nature, those materials were never to leave a SCIF except under high security arrangement - and definitely never to be stored in a box in a garage next to one’s car).
In apparent anger, biden called a late night presser and proceeded to prove the Special Council’s report to be accurate.
Ben Shapiro on “X” gave probably the best description of it -
“That was the Challenger explosion of presidential press conferences. What a full-scale disaster.”
biden insisted “my memory is fine” while attacking Hur for some items included in the report.
“How in the hell dare he raise that,” an angry Biden said of the portion of Hur’s report that stated Biden “did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died.” That matter, the president said, is “none of their damn business.”
“For any extraneous commentary, they don’t know what they’re talking about,” Biden insisted, despite the report directly quoting Biden’s confused answers. “It has no place in this report,” declared Biden. “The bottom line is the matter is now closed and I can continue what I’ve always focused on: my job of being the president of the United States of America.”
Biden then displayed how sharp his memory was by stating that Egyptian president El-Sisi as the “president of Mexico.”
Other choice memory statements include -
“I said I’m gonna be a president for everybody, whether you live in a red state or a green state!”
OBSERVATION - Follow on commentary is rich on FR threads.
Bottom line is if one takes Hur’s report at face value, Biden escaped charges for willfully mishandling classified information because he is mentally incompetent. This was confirmed by his presser last night. If he is mentally incompetent to stand trial, he is equally disqualified to continue serving as president.
The next question is how much longer will the democrat powers that be allow him to stay in office? Movement to set the foundation for his removal under 25th Amendment conditions began last summer, with the walls coming down with MSM ceasing to edit out the increasing mental lapses biden has been exhibiting. Even allowing negative reporting of the same. This built to a crescendo last night where the press corps seemed to sense blood in the water and aggressively challenged biden. His incoherent ramblings didn’t help him at all.
Now the growing calls for him to step down or the cabinet to declare him unfit for office. Again, the MSM is doing a poor job of censorship in this regard. One panelist on CNN remarked, “This is becoming a five-alarm fire for the White House.” As I’ve said for the past 18+ months, I don’t expect Biden to make it to the Democratic National Convention in July.”
Now, what are the scenarios. I had early noted rumors that biden would step down just before the democrat convention - allowing a brokered replacement to step in. This fiasco may have altered that time line.
Still the top two contenders for president continue to be Newscum and Mike 0bama, with the tip going to newscum who’s been stealth campaigning for it for over a year. What about Harris? The powers that be know that the diversity pick for VP she represents would blow up and crash harder than the Hindenburg. She may get support to see out the end of the term as president, but not further.
This whole mess also places us in a very dangerous global situation. China may attempt to take Taiwan via the methods I’ve described in prior posts. Iran may get really froggy and sprint towards development of a nuclear bomb, in the process kicking off the massive Israel - Hezbollah war as cover. Ukraine - Russia further destabilizes. The whole could tip the US economy into a very real recession as the economic impacts of those actions hit an already weakened and recession bound economy.
So how much longer can biden hold out? The guesses are all over the place. Damage control assessment is on going and could result in him stepping down one way or another in a matter of days or months. Personally, I’m very surprised that he has lasted this long in office as he was already severely mentally and physically challenged when he took (literally) office. Last night is going to force the powers to fish or cut bait on his continued pursuit of a second term. I don’t think at this pace he can make it to the democrat convention - so i expect sooner rather than later.
Regardless, this whole episode last night has placed us into a potentially precarious situation our enemies will (not may) take advantage of.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
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Texas District Court Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk overruled a Biden administration attempt to block a Texas lawsuit over asylum rules that transfer authority from judges to asylum officers, saying the asylum rules could violate the U.S. constitution’s appointment clause.
Texas said the new asylum rule gives “significant additional authority” to asylum officers, limiting “immigration-judge review to denials of applications,” and upends “the entire adjudicatory system to the benefit of aliens.” (FO)
OBSERVATION - The ultimate goal of the democrats is to import enough like minded social parasites and get them citizenship to dramatically swing the political balance in the country and lock in a perpetual progressive government. These asylum rules are a means to that end.
***
Cross reference this to potential terror concerns.
Indio BP agents discovered thousands of gift cards, merchandise & 23 fake Pennsylvania drivers licenses during a checkpoint inspection. 3 of the 5 Chinese nationals arrested were AsylumSeekers awaiting their hearings.
OBSERVATION - These are not your innocent refugees fleeing to that better life here. You don’t go running around with these items unless you are up to no good.
BTW, Chinese are now the fastest growing demographic of illegals entering the country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
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putin’s interview is echoing around the globe, bringing a lot of analysis and commentary. Remember, putin was a KGB officer and fully understands and implements the tools of propaganda to his (and Russia’s) benefit.
Logistics –
There are reports that Starlink has begun to be delivered en masse to the Russian military through Dubai, the accounts are activated and work in the occupied territories.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Zelensky appointed Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, replacing Valery Zaluzhny.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones attacked Afipskiy and Ilskiy refineries in Krasnodar Krai. No serious damage reported at Afipskiy refinery, but main processing unit caught fire at Ilskiy refinery. Russian Ministry of Defense reports 19 drones were shot down over Kursk, Briansk, Oryol, Krasnodar regions and over Black Sea
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 of 16 Shahed drones overnight.
According to some unconfirmed reports, the Ukrainian situation at Avdiivka is deterring due lack of ammunition. Russia forcing the attack to gain a foothold on the southern margin of the town.
Russian Territory –
Oil depot “Stalnoy Kon”(Steel Horse) in Oryol region was attacked with drones overnight
Multiple fires broke out in Moscow, Russia as soon as the interview with Vladimir Putin and Tucker Carlson is released
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Shortages of munitions is becoming critical and reaching the point where Ukraine defenses may fall in some sectors. Avdiivka being one of those sectors.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is entering its 5th month.
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to press towards Rafah
- IDF discovers massive tunnel complex beneath the central headquarters of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip
- Evidence found in the tunnel indicates many Israeli hostages were held there.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
Biden administration officials warned Israel against expanding its Gaza ground offensive to the southern city of Rafah as IAF hit Hamas targets on the border of the town.
“We have yet to see any evidence of serious planning for such an operation,” Vedant Patel, a State Department spokesman, said Thursday. Going ahead with such an offensive now, “with no planning and little thought in an area where there is sheltering of a million people would be a disaster.”
John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesperson, said an Israel ground offensive in Rafah is “not something we would support.”
OBSERVATION - I wouldn’t show Washington any of my plans either.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza into areas previously cleared by IDF.
Sources in the security establishment said that contact with the Hamas leader Sinwar has not only been cut off from his organization’s members but also from the mediators in the hostage negotiations.
According to the report contact with Sinwar was cut off ten days ago and the Hamas leadership has been making decisions without him. Over the past two months, the IDF has been making advances in Sinwar’s hometown of Khan Yunis. The arch-terrorist was reported to be hiding in the city, but he has yet to be located.
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Hamas elite commander surrenders in tunnel: ‘We decided not to fight and waited for the IDF’. Nukhba force commander says he and two other terrorists left their weapons outside room in Khan Younis tunnel and raised their hands when troops approached, urges others to surrender as well or face death.
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During a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday, the American diplomat was shown photos of a giant tunnel that was exposed in recent days underneath the central headquarters of UNRWA in the Gaza Strip. The meeting was attended by senior officials from both sides.
The Israeli leader showed Blinken proof of the misuse of the UNRWA headquarters’ underground premises for apparent terrorist tunneling purposes. Evidence found in the tunnel indicates many Israeli hostages were held there.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Hezbollah claimed to have fired dozens of Katyusha rockets toward northern Israel on Thursday night just hours after Arab media reported that a senior Hezbollah military commander Abbas al Dabs, known by his nickname Hajj Abdullah, was targeted in an alleged Israeli drone strike in Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on Thursday afternoon.
Some reports also mentioned another Hezbollah operative as being hit in the attack, while others mentioned multiple other persons being wounded. While originally most reports said that at least two people were killed, Lebanese media later reported that the two were only injured and were in stable condition as of Thursday evening.
In likely response and warning to the 30 or so rockets fired into Israel, Israeli Air Force chief sayed dozens of aircraft were currently operating over Lebanon. Hundreds to be mobilized in case of war vs. Hezbollah. Finally, that the IDF is moving the 36th Division from Gaza to Lebanon front.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Syrian Observatory - Iranian militias transport weapons and ammunition from Deir ez-Zor to fortified sites belonging to Hezbollah on the Syrian-Lebanese border in anticipation of American strikes at those former sites.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense claims “Our air defenses shot down two drones west of Damascus that came from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan.”
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Israel is preparing a ground assault into Rafah that could prove to hard to separate non-combatants from combatants. Egypt and other arab nations along with the US may complain about it, but there is little they can do to stop it short of military intervention. Egypt won’t risk damage to its border wall that could permit thousands, even hundreds of thousands to pour into it. With the bulk of Hama’s remaining combat forces being systematically taken out in Khan Yunis, Rafah represents the last possible hide out for Hamas leadership and held hostages.
At the same time, Israel is moving incrementally to prepare to attack Hezbollah in the north. Besides counter attacks, Israel is conducting a strategic level operations hitting Hezbollah key leaders and sites, efforts that will progressively weaken Hezbollah’s response to the eventual attack from Israel.
Timeline for the hit against Hezbollah? Israel knows and may be telegraphing it through its estimation on when Gaza will be fully subdued and Hamas eliminated as a threat. Israeli announcements continue to suggest that it would take nearly a year for that process to be complete - placing it roughly towards the end of this year.
SMH - that would place it right smack dab in the middle of potential near civil war election based rioting and potential constitutional crisis with a figure head president still in charge.
Misc of Note –
El Niño appears to have peaked and is set to come to a rapid end over the next few months. Climate prediction forecasts indicate sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific will rapidly cool over the next several weeks, with now a 79% chance of the Pacific dropping below El Niño status in April.
The La Niña phase typically correlates to dry weather in the southern U.S. and cooler, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the North.
OBSERVATION - Typical of El Nino - my home here in the Redoubt has seen above normal temps (except for the short period in January) and below normal precipitation. The flip back to La Nina may bring blow normal temps and above normal precipitation as seen in the previous winter. We’ll have to watch to see how this pans out, and I may need to up my pre-winter wood supply accordingly. Plan accordingly for you homes as well.