Slight delay in that I had to deal with 3” of dense snow fall from overnight. Desperately needed in the hills. Probably will have to go out again later and shovel some more.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Farmers have gained a VERY limited victory of sorts in their protests against the EU’s draconian global warming mandates towards agriculture.
One of the items von der Leyen announced this morning in her speech to the European Parliament was the withdrawal of the proposed Sustainable Use Regulation (SUR). This pesticide use control measure met with widespread controversy when it was introduced in 2022. Last year it didn’t survive a vote by the parliament for implementation because of protests from a united European agricultural sector. Prospects were already looking glum for attempts at passage this year even before France, Belgium, and Germany’s farming communities erupted.
During her speech on Tuesday morning, the Commission chief spoke at length about farmers, saying they “deserve to be listened to” as they face the ravages of climate change, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis.
But she insisted the sector, which accounts for over 10% of the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions and is heavily subsidised through the EU budget, needs to transition towards a “more sustainable model of production.”
“Only if our farmers can live off the land will they invest in the future. And only if we achieve our climate and environmental goals together, will farmers be able to continue to make a living,” the Commission president said.
“Our farmers are well aware of this. We should place more trust in them.”
...The withdrawal of the proposed law is not immediate and still has to be ratified by the College of Commissioners, a process expected to be finalized in the coming weeks.
Despite the news, von der Leyen stressed the issue of regulating pesticides, whose carbon footprint stems from their manufacture, transport and application, would remain on the agenda and could be subject to a “new proposal much more mature.”
OBSERVATION - Some equate this to a big ‘bait and switch’, noting that EU isn’t fully rejecting the global warming mandates, only possibly postponing them for a period (“remaining on the agenda”).
***
Over the weekend, the University of Warwick concluded its Warwick Economics Summit. On the second day, 3 February, the World Health Organization (“WHO”) director, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, joined the Summit via Zoom to push the Pandemic Treaty.
“It’s urgent [ ] that all of us learn the painful lessons the [covid] pandemic told us and make the changes that must be made to keep all of us safer. It’s for that reason that in December 2022 WHO’s member states met in Geneva and agreed to develop an international agreement on pandemic preparedness and response,” he said.
Tedro’s speech was an appalling attempt to manipulate young minds and use them to fight his battles, Tedros called on students to raise their voices “to counter the lies that are undermining the [pandemic] agreement on social media.”
https://expose-news.com/2024/02/06/tedros-the-terrorist-tries-to-push-whos-treaty/
OBSERVATION - The source is kind ‘out there’ in some aspects, but the fact of Tedro’s speech remains as well as the intent of it. Right now, the WHO is on the cutting edge to be the first to get national authorization via this pandemic treaty, to place the world under a globalist control. Going back, this ‘treaty’ has a very broad ranging definition of a ‘health’ emergency to include global heating as well as gun control.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Oregon Republicans issued a statement saying that they stand with Texas Governor Gov Abbott in his efforts to secure our southern border
OBSERVATION - the 26 state break away from federal malfeasance as a foreshock to a developing ‘national divorce’ is obvious . As I’ve noted earlier, any further split will be on a state by state basis with left coast CA, OR and WA having their eastern regions red and wanting to split from the dark blue urbanites.
IN RELATED- biden just called up Alaska NG to support the border patrol in TX. This is a deliberate attempt to threaten potential NG v NG confrontations IMHO.
***
Several of the illegal aliens who recently seriously assaulted NYC police officers and were released by the NY DA for ‘lack of evidence’ were arrested by ICE agents in Phoenix AZ. The New York Post reports a church non-profit gave them free bus tickets to California after they gave the non-profit fake names.
The name of this so called “church non-profit” was not given.
OBSERVATION - Cross link to illegal immigration. Illegal crime will quickly surpass crimes by the former favored underclass of the democrats in an exponential manner. The effort being made to keep these thugs on the streets is mind boggling. Meanwhile, citizens are being robbed, beaten, raped and murdered with no hope of the criminal justice system bringing these illegals to justice. This serves to increase the chaos in the cities, but it is generating backlash as well.
These ‘non-profits’ need to be named and put front and center for their contribution to the promotion of crime and in this case , conspiracy.
***
The “Negro national anthem” and now known as the “black national anthem” will be played immediately after the National Anthem at this weekend’s Super Bowl.
OBSERVATION - Very few things depict the two-fold nature the left is creating in this country than the imposition of this so called ‘black national anthem’ on the American society. Already it has been drilled into so many minds of blacks and whites for that matter too that the white race doesn’t deserve to live in this country, let alone world, that promotion of another anthem widen’s that rift.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.
Debt that has transitioned into “serious delinquency,” or 90 days or more past due, increased across multiple categories during the year, but none more so than credit cards.
With a total of $1.13 trillion in debt, credit card debt that moved into serious delinquency amounted to 6.4% in the fourth quarter, a 59% jump from just over 4% at the end of 2022, the New York Fed reported. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said.
OBSERVATION - Continued linage to the increase in CC debt is to keep the family afloat. Jobs are becoming scarce, wages not keeping up with inflation and out of control housing costs are on people’s minds - and they are not being swayed by the regimes bleats as to how wonderful things are. Reality meets rhetoric.
***
Damage assessments are underway to gauge the damage to the agriculture fields from the weekend’s floods in central and southern Kalifornia. Initial reports suggest that enough damage has been sustained that food prices for some items are likely to rise short term due to shortages. Monitoring.
***
National Retail Federation VP Jonathan Gold said disruption in the Red Sea is pushing shippers back to West Coast ports and is already starting to put pressure on rail supply chains. Gold added that already increasing pressure on rail shipping combined with higher demand could lead to even greater rail shipping congestion.
OBSERVATION - This is on top of the increased shipping costs (5 fold by some reports) and time.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) detected and tracked four Russian military aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone today. The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace and did not enter U.S. or Canadian airspace, per NORAD.
OBSERVATION - Common event during the Cold War era that has been resurrected and has been ongoing for several years now.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
More republican turmoil over the treasonous ‘immigration’ reform bill that crashed and burned when released Monday. Still some confusion on exactly when McConnell did the 180 -was is Wed of last week or Monday of this week. News reports now point to the latter.
As the GOP senators convened on Monday night to deliberate over the compromised border bill, it became evident that the likelihood of obtaining the necessary 60 votes to move forward with the national security package was dwindling.
“McConnell recommended to GOP senators behind closed doors that they BLOCK the border bill on Wednesday, per multiple sources, bc it’s clear that most Republicans are preparing to vote no — either because they oppose the bill or want more time,” according to Punchbowl News reporter Andrew Desiderio.
This whole fiasco of secret negotiations with this bill stuffed with tons of other, unrelated items and spending has generated increasing calls for McConnell to step down from the leadership. This bill was everything the republican party stood against.
***
In related to the bogus border bill, chucky schumer appeared to have threatened citizens with being forced to fight in Ukraine if the bill wasn’t passed. “Americans wouldn’t like that”
***
House Republicans suffered a stinging defeat Tuesday when four members of their conference joined Democrats in voting against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
The House voted 216-214 to not impeach Mayorkas over his failure to secure the border with Mexico. Only one Republican did not vote, believed to be Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., who is not in Washington following surgery in January. Scalise last fall was diagnosed with multiple myeloma, a blood cancer.
Republican Reps. Ken Buck of Colorado, Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, Tom McClintock of California, and Blake Moore of Utah joined Democrats in voting against the resolution. Moore first voted to impeach but then joined the no side to allow the House GOP to bring up the vote again.
OBSERVATION - The congressional republicans are the keystone cops of modern politics. This impeachment should have been a slam dunk, yet some republicans didn’t have the will or the want to do so. Recognize that impeachment would be more symbolic that functional at this stage because the Senate would not vote to convict and throw the scum bag out. Still it would have been used to pound the regime during the 2024 campaign.
***
Good new overnight is that Ronna McDaniels is out as head of the RNC. Reports state that she has told Donald Trump she will be resigning after the South Carolina primary.
Her tenure at the RNC saw victories snatched from the jaw of defeat time an again over the past several election cycles. As the niece of sen romney, her position was generally safe with the accompanying RINO establishment group. Trump has a moment in time to install a new leader to capitalize on his momentum and transfer some of it to congressional races to gain control of both houses this fall.
***
The White House has once again been exposed for violating the First Amendment rights of Americans.
The Biden administration isn’t guilty of digital or social media censorship in this case, but banning books.
Internal docs subpoenaed by @JudiciaryGOP & @Weaponization indicate that @amazon bowed down to Biden White House pressure to censor BOOKS, books that expressed views the White House did not approve of.
https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/smoking-gun-documents-amazon-censorship-knab/
OBSERVATION - Nothing spells tyranny like that of govt censorship of views contrary to their desired narrative. The First Amendment was established to prevent govt intrusion into the realm of free speech and much like its brother, the 2d Amendment, was born out of the war of Independence. Then, British and pro-british elements sought to silence newspapers that contained articles critical of British rule and actions - forcing many to go underground. Willingness by these leftist companies like Amazon to comply is another layer to the development of an Orwellian scenario where all thought is controlled by the state.
IN RELATED - The House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government said the National Science Foundation (NSF) issued multi-million dollar grants to university and non-profit research teams to develop artificial intelligence (AI) powered “censorship and propaganda tools,” with the intent to shape public opinion.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The leader of a California secession movement known as “Yes California” told Newsweek in an exclusive interview on Saturday that a national divorce is needed to avoid another “civil war.” As politics have become increasingly polarizing in recent years, there have been growing calls from residents in coastal-like states such as California, Texas, and New Hampshire to secede from the rest of the United States.
“Yes California” is currently campaigning on a ballot measure called CalExit 3.1, which would break California into two and establish a country separate from the U.S. in the San Francisco Bay area and along the central California coast, according to the “Yes California” website. The independent land would be called Pacifica. So far, 92,000 people have signed up to join the campaign through the movement’s website. However, it’s unclear how many of these people are California residents.
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of growing public awareness and desires to separate from the every growing and tyrannical fed govt and in some cases equally tyrannical state govts. In this instance, instead of trying to create a new state to address the growing fault line of differences, a new entity altogether is being suggested.
Should the trigger line be crossed - and there are numerous and growing trigger lines today - succession by red states and counties may well be quicker than one would think now - primarily because people are getting conditions for a future split.
China –
Chinese Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank notified customers about the suspension of transactions with Russia.
NOTE - This is developing and the reason for the actions haven’t fully been brought into my radar screen yet.
Phillipines –
The Philippines is expected to work on dozens of projects this year to upgrade military bases as part of an agreement with the United States.
Signed in 2014, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement allows the U.S. to allocate funding to improve and construct facilities within existing Philippine military bases as well as to deploy American troops on a rotational basis.
China has decried some of the EDCA’s base locations due to their proximity to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a rogue province and has threatened to take back by force. Although the U.S. officially does not support Taiwan’s independence, Washington does provide it with weaponry, and U.S. President Joe Biden has promised to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
OBSERVATION - Necessity to be able to defend against China is reestablishing military ties with the US.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
The Prana Network hacker group breached the email servers of the Iranian company IRGC Sahara Thunder, that facilitates arms sales from Iran to Russia. The servers contained data on the production of Shahed-136 attack drones for Russia. The documents do not directly mention the type of product being manufactured. Instead, drones are listed in documents under a special code as “Dolphin 632 type motor boat.”
The Iranian side announced a starting price of $375,000 per unit. However, during the negotiations, an agreement was reached for $193,000 per piece when ordering 6,000 units or $290,000 when ordering 2,000 units. The total price of the production contract, including the transfer of technologies, equipment, 6,000 pieces of UAVs and software, is roughly $1.75 billion. According to other published documents, at least partially, Russia conducts its financial transactions and payments with Iran in gold.
RUMINT-
Though the article is real, the speculation is rumor.
The Telegraph has published a new scenario of a potential war between Russia and NATO
- Putin mobilizes 200 thousand soldiers in Russia and goes on a new offensive in Ukraine in spring 2024;
- Russian Federation provokes protests of Russian speaking people in the Baltics and conducts cyber attacks against these countries in the summer;
NOTE - Russia has used this tactic in Georgia and Moldova
- Protests are used as a pretext for military exercises in Belarus and the deployment of troops in Kaliningrad in the fall;
- Clashes begin in the Suvalka Corridor area in winter. At this stage, Russia and the West will have a choice - to negotiate or to wage war.
NOTE - The linchpin in this whole matter is the ability of Russia to mobilize 200k soldiers - on top of that being mobilized to sustain the Ukraine war. Not only mobilize, but equip with enough tanks, APCs and other equipment - again - above demands for sustaining combat in Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
Chinese Zhejiang Chouzhou Commercial Bank notified customers about the suspension of transactions with Russia.
NOTE - This is developing and the reason for the actions haven’t fully been brought into my radar screen yet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Busy night for Ukraine ADA - shooting down 15 of 20 Shahed drones, 26 of 29 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 of 3 Kaliber cruise missiles. Russia also launched 4 Kh-22 cruise missiles, 3 Iskander-M and 5 S-300 ballistic missiles. Areas targeted centered on Kyiv, other central and western areas of Ukraine. In eastern Ukraine - Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk areas were also hit.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Hot zones continue to be Avdiivka and the eastern front.
Europe / NATO General –
Parliament of Hungary failed to ratify Sweden’s application to join NATO
ISRAEL –
Now 4 months into the Gaza War
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas announces its refusal to release the dozens of Israeli hostages it is holding without a complete cessation of the war.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
Hamas has laid out a series of demands, including exchanging hostages for Palestinian prisoners and rebuilding Gaza, in response to an Israel-backed ceasefire proposal.
The armed group wants a full withdrawal of Israeli forces and an end to the war after three 45-day truce phases.
The offer is likely to be unacceptable to Israel’s prime minister, who has called for “total victory” in Gaza.
The proposal received a tepid response from US President Joe Biden, who called it “a little over the top”. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said there was still “a lot of work to be done” to reach a permanent ceasefire, but stressed the importance of reaching a lasting peace.
***
The US message to Israel: “In a few weeks, the issue of normalization with Saudi Arabia and the chance to promote it ‘will be almost impossible’. You have weeks to decide”
Saudi Arabia draws the line: “The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to US administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as capital”
***
Israeli army Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has uncovered documents and other materials from a tunnel in the Gaza Strip, indicating Hamas’s direct links and coordination with Iran. “We found official documents of Hamas from 2020, including the details of the funds transferred from Iran to Hamas and [Yahya] Sinwar, between 2014 and 2020. More than 150 million dollars were transferred from Iran to Hamas,” he says.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Rockets were launched from southern Lebanon towards an Israeli position in the Kafr Shuba hills
Lebanese caretaker Foreign Minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, voiced on February 6 the nation’s rejection of recent Israeli and international demands seeking to push Lebanese resistance group, Hezbollah, north of the Litani River, saying Beirut will not accept ‘partial solutions’ to resolving the cross-border conflict.
“Western countries demand the retreat of Hezbollah for about eight to ten kilometers north of Litani,” Bou Habib said in an interview with Nida al-Watan. “This is a formula that Lebanon rejects. [Beirut] will not accept ‘partial solutions’ that do not bring the desired peace and do not secure stability but will lead to the renewal of the war again and again.”
But in reality even if the Lebanese government wanted to try and force Hezbollah away from the southern border it would not be able to do so. The Lebanese Army has long had a very limited arsenal, and really no air force to speak of, due to sanctions and limitations imposed by Washington.
Hezbollah is widely considered to be stronger than even the Lebanese state’s army, and a weak army is largely the legacy of the prior two-decade long Lebanese civil war.
OBSERVATION - Israel is continuing to pressure actions by the world and Lebanon to push Hezbollah back from the Israeli border. It is setting the justification framework for action when the time comes. Though things could kick off very quickly, I think that Israel will continue to hold off until they have most matters concerning Gaza settled down, so they won’t be distracted by any residual action there.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria’s state-run SANA news agency, citing a military source, says Israeli warplanes launched missiles from an area north of Lebanon’s Tripoli, targeting several sites in Homs and the nearby area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired six anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the Southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
Hamas’ hostage exchange plan/offer is totally unlikely to be accepted by Israel. Some how they think they have the leverage to force a complete turnover of Israeli goals. They are shooting any resemblance of support in their treatment of the hostages, with the recent announcement of more murdered Israelis.
What is increasingly concerning are US govt threats to once again force a 2 - state solution on Israel, spoken openly by Saudi Arabia. Remember, there have been at least 5 two state ‘solutions’ put forth in the past, all rejected by the arabs. Forcing Israel back to the 1967 borders will place in a virtually undefinable situation - especially with today’s modern weapon systems. It is a non-starter.
To harken to more biblical view, US insistence on a forced 2 state solution and the division of Jerusalem places a target on this country. This is not a good thing to tempt God’s wrath any further.
US has stepped back a bit in preemptive strikes and the Houthi’s are pushing right back. Getting redundant in saying that overwhelming force is necessary under Arab psyche to gain any degree of deterrent.
Cartels, commmies and bad actors know how to set up 'non profits and NGO's and do their evil ON OUR DIME.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
The Environmental Protection Agency has announced stricter standards for fine particle pollution, generally known as soot.
The annual fine particle standard will be lowered from 12 micrograms per cubic meter to 9. The tighter standard, first proposed last year, will obligate states and localities to monitor soot levels and take action if they are out of compliance. EPA officials estimate the change will yield public health benefits of up to $46 billion by 2032, including up to 800,000 avoided cases of asthma symptoms, 4,500 avoided premature deaths, and 290,000 avoided lost workdays.
Administrators and advocates on the call predicted blowback from affected industries but said that for every $1 spent on compliance, $77 would be returned in the form of health benefits.
OBSERVATION - Just what orifice do these jokers pull these numbers out from? Absurd. This is just another brick being added to the pile to eventually shut down coal power in the US as well as the use of diesel engines. Regulate them to death.
***
California lawmakers re-introduced a proposal to mandate universal healthcare and ban private healthcare. Experts say this would cost $391 billion per year — or $100 billion more than the entire 2024-2025 state budget and reduce the overall availability of healthcare as doctors flee to higher-paying states that allow private care.
OBSERVATION - It has been a while since the issue/idea of single payer universal health care reared its head. This concept, however, fits well into the general goals of the WEF et al to control global ‘health’. I suspect we may see more of these efforts in the coming years.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
No significant actions against TX by the regime - with the closeness to the court date on the whole matter and the negative view it has cast on it, they may be trying to put it on the back burner for now.
***
A core group of radical leftists are espousing a campaign against conservatives by threatening to come after them in their homes, businesses and churches if the republicans win in this year’s elections. Current focus of this anger is being directed towards an effort called “Project 2025”, an endeavor to ensure the next conservative president is ready to govern from day one,” the Heritage Foundation’s Mike Gonzalez wrote months before the protest took place.
“We need to go find out where they live, where they go to church, who they hang around with, and birddog they (sic) a—-,” one activist declared to the crowd.
“We have to embarrass them. That is a tactic,” they said. “Find out where they live. Find out where their office is!” said another speaker, urging the crowd to “disrupt business as usual” for conservatives.
OBSERVATION - Just how much traction this ‘movement’ gets is not clear at this moment. From the article, it seems they are seeking to rekindle the same, at your front door, intimidation tactics they attempted against USSC justices over Roe V Wade. A ready source of foot soldiers and support is the always present elements of Antifa who’s presence would likely turn the violence level up a big degree.
I would suspect that much of the initial protests following 2024 elections would be centered in or near the common, radical leftist blue city havens. How extensive will it be in red areas? BLM/Antifa attempted that in 2020, bussing numbers of protestors into rural red areas - only to beat a humiliating run back to those busses when faced by a larger, and many times well armed, population not in any mood for their nonsense.
Here in 2024, a Trump win will likely produce much more violent riots than 2020, and risk a much higher death count as both sides will be gunned up better this time around.
***
The Aloha State’s highest court upheld a man’s gun-carry conviction on Wednesday after rejecting landmark decisions from the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS).
Hawaii’s Supreme Court reversed a lower court decision that found charges leveled against Christopher Wilson for carrying a gun without a permit violated his rights. Instead, the court ruled its state constitution provides no gun-rights protections whatsoever. That’s despite it including a provision protecting the right of the people to keep and bear arms identical to the one in the federal Constitution.
“Article I, section 17 of the Hawaiʻi Constitution mirrors the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution,” the Hawaiian court wrote in Hawaii v. Wilson. “We read those words differently than the current United States Supreme Court. We hold that in Hawaiʻi there is no state constitutional right to carry a firearm in public.”
The ruling directly contrasts with the core holdings at the center of SCOTUS’s gun rights precedents. The state supreme court’s ruling explicitly rejects the federal supreme court’s findings in 2008’s District of Columbia v. Heller and 2022’s New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen. The lower court’s straightforward rejection of the higher court’s Second Amendment jurisprudence could provoke SCOTUS to take up the case and issue a rebuke, as it did when the Massachusetts Supreme Court ruled protections don’t extend to modern weapons in 2016’s Caetano.
OBSERVATION - This is a dangerous and significant challenge to the USSC and the constitution. The USSC decision is a pretty clear and straight forward one. This act by Hawaii that shows a path toward the ‘Great Divorce’ desired by the left.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
This warning renewed as of Feb 6, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Banking is still a very real concern, and that concern is growing.
US banks hold about $2.7 trillion in commercial real estate loans. The majority of that, about 80%, according to Goldman Sachs economists, is held by smaller, regional banks — the ones that the US government hasn’t classified as “too big to fail.”
Much of that debt is about to mature, and, in a troubled market, regional banks might have problems collecting on those loans. More than $2.2 trillion will come due between now and the end of 2027, according to data firm Trepp.
The Financial Stability Oversight Council, of which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler are members, released a report last December that cited commercial real estate as a major potential financial risk.
“As losses from a [commercial real estate] loan portfolio accumulate, they can spill over into the broader financial system,” they wrote. “Sales of financially distressed properties can reduce market values of nearby properties, lead to a broader downward CRE valuation spiral, and even reduce municipalities’ property tax revenues.”
OBSERVATION - The commercial real estate market is in a world of incredible hurt. Overbuilt and under occupied, owners cannot get enough revenue from leases to pay the loans - even in many cases those loans obtained at the pre-Fed high rates. Dangerous times are approaching that could tip the cart over in a major manner.
***
For the first time in more than 20 years, the United States purchased more goods from Mexico than China in 2023, highlighting a change in international trade and spotlighting America’s de-risking efforts.
Last year, the United States imported more than $475.6 billion in goods from its southern neighbor and exported about $323.2 billion, according to new Census Bureau data.
The United States ran a $152.38 billion trade deficit with Mexico, up 16 percent from the previous year.
By comparison, the United States bought roughly $427 billion in goods from China and shipped nearly $148 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with Beijing was close to $280 billion, narrowing by 27 percent from 2022.
OBSERVATION - This marks a significant shift in how the US markets/businesses are trying to have more secure off-country sources of materials and products. This shift is clearly not helping China’s wobbly business sector as other countries are going to similar source changes to secure better supplies of the things they once imported from China.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
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The Supreme Court hears oral argument in the Colorado ballot case at 9:00 a.m. this morning — the case of Trump v. Anderson. Did the Colorado Supreme Court err in ordering President Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot under section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment?
***
The soap opera continues. On Tuesday, reports surfaced that embattled Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel will be stepping down from her position after the South Carolina primary. Now it seems McDaniel may be flopping back. In a recent memo she states -
“With a news cycle full of palace intrigue and speculation surrounding all of us, I want to take the time to reassure all of you that I am still hard at work as RNC Chairwoman and building a machine that will elect Republicans up and down the ballot in November. “
We’ll have to see what happens after the SC primary to know what will happen next.
***
Congress will soon be adjuring (again) and not return until the end of the month. When they do, they will be facing the deadline of dealing with budget issues coming due the first of March - giving them only 6 days to accomplish some sort of compromise bill to fund the govt for the rest of the FY. Speaker Johnson’s capitulation on the current extension has brought him under the guns of conservative republicans and any similar bill may not make out out of the House. This could force affected sectors of the govt to state shutting down in March. Big sticking points
- Closing down the border
- Funding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
If Johnson skirts around the core republican contingency, his seat could be vacated and an ever greater threat to republican control could occur, as I”ve noted in the past, some RINOS have rumored that they’d vote for a democrat speaker the next time around.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
On Monday, Biden said that he just met with François Mitterand. Mitterand died in 1996.
Yesterday at a fundraiser, Biden said he met Helmut Kohl about January 6th. Kohl died in 2017.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Chinese hackers managed to hide in U.S. infrastructure for up to five years, federal agencies warned on Wednesday, potentially allowing them the opportunity to launch a cyberattack against the United States.
According to a public cybersecurity warning released this week, which was compiled by multiple federal intelligence agencies in conjunction with British, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand agencies, “PRC state-sponsored” hackers focused on major infrastructure “primarily in Communications, Energy, Transportation Systems, and Waste and Wastewater Systems Sectors — in the continental and non-continental United States and its territories.”
The report notes that the hackers used tactics that make it difficult for the infrastructure companies to notice their intrusions. It also adds that their “choice of targets and pattern of behavior is not consistent with traditional cyber espionage or intelligence gathering operations.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/china-hackers-infrastructure/2024/02/07/id/1152711/
OBSERVATION - The stories of this penetration into our infrastructure network continue. What isn’t being noted are the probability of firmware embedded into Chinese-made components that keep getting uses here, in spite of warnings and bans. The firmware can also create backdoor access whenever China wants to press the key.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
This morning CBP sources exclusively told Fox News Channel that the number of apprehensions of those illegally crossing the southern border has reached an alarming 1,000,000 so far this fiscal year.
FY 2024 began on October 1, 2023. This is the earliest that the 1M milestone has ever been reached. In the last 24 hours, 6800 illegal immigrants were apprehended at the southern border. For comparison, the total for FY 2023 was 909,182 in the same period.
OBSERVATION - Numbers speak for themselves.
***
The regime is threatening the citizens of the US in a statement released yesterday. White House says ICE will reduce deportations, detention capacity if Republicans don’t pass border bill.
OBSERVATION - This level of aggressiveness and distain towards the citizens of the US is something I never thought I’d see in my life time.
China –
(H/T TIK) China has revealed an ambitious plan to transform its military operations through the integration of more advanced unmanned systems, a strategic shift toward drone-led special operations in war scenarios including a potential conflict with the US over Taiwan.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this month that China’s military plans to replace humans with machines in special operations overseas to mitigate the high risks of such missions.
Scientists are working with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) capable of flying vast distances, diving deep underwater and lying in wait for long periods, the SCMP report said.
The PLA’s 78092 unit has revealed details about a hypothetical overseas special operations plan published in the Fire Control & Command Control journal, aiming to help Chinese companies, engineers and scientists better understand the military’s needs and strategic goals.
The PLA’s plan says the hypothetical operation is set in 2035 when a small-scale conflict between China and an unnamed neighboring country occurs, with the caveat that both sides agree to limit their equipment to small arms including small boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns.
https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/china-leaks-a-blueprint-for-drone-war-dominance/
OBSERVATION - The Ukraine war has kicked the evolution of combat use of drones to a whole higher level. The technology has been looked at for years, but the off the shelf adaptations in Ukraine has blown that path out of the water. China seems to be looking to go forward with a more rigid implementation plan. What it is ignoring is that degree of flexibility being seen on the battle field of today. Same blinders approach by the US. AI and quantum computing may quickly alter this concept and make drones even more deadly.
***
Follow-up. Yesterday I posted about China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank notifying its clients in Russia and Belarus that it is ending all of its operations there.
Later reports have indicated that this is due to payment issues associated with Western sanctions, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Vedomosti reported on Feb. 7, citing sources. Sources told Vedomosti that all payments have been impacted, not just those that use SWIFT.
North/South Korea –
With all the recent talk regarding NK initiating a war with the south, a quick review of its conventional forces is due.
The North Korean Army currently has about 800,000 troops, over 3,000 tanks, 3,000 other AFV, or armored fighting vehicles for infantry, and nearly 8,000 artillery pieces, including 2,000 rocket launchers. Most of these weapons are pointed south and stationed on or near the DMZ. North Korea has the means to be dangerous, for a little while anyway. Fuel shortages, elderly equipment and lack of maintenance means that a lot of this gear would not stay operational for long. As an example, the past 25 years or so of deferred maintenance, as in none on tube artillery pieces including the guns on tanks, means almost all of those can only fire one round because their recuperator seals have deteriorated so much.
North Korea has two armored divisions, 12 motorized infantry and 23 non-motorized infantry divisions used only for static defense along the DMZ.
Nearly every adult male serves at least six years in the military, the big problem is that years of economic problems and failed harvests have left the troops poorly equipped, often hungry, and increasingly insubordinate.
The South Korean military has half as many men, and some women, in the military. The southerners are better trained, armed, supported, and led.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htworld/articles/20240208.aspx
OBSERVATION - Back in my active duty days, waaaay back in the Before Years, NK was a more substantial threat because of the money that came in from the communist realm to keep their equipment and training more up to date. That all ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Union splintering. Never the less, any war would be extremely ugly for the first weeks.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
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Russian Personnel Issues –-
Moscow, through travel agencies in Syria, is reportedly recruiting mercenaries for the war against Ukraine — the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. They reportedly spend time in combat units fighting in the Aleppo region before being shipped off to Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
Follow-up. Yesterday I posted about China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank notifying its clients in Russia and Belarus that it is ending all of its operations there.
Later reports have indicated that this is due to payment issues associated with Western sanctions, the Russian state-controlled media outlet Vedomosti reported on Feb. 7, citing sources. Sources told Vedomosti that all payments have been impacted, not just those that use SWIFT.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
RUMINT –
F-16’s being given to Ukraine reportedly will come with long range munitions of an unspecified type that can given a significant penetration into Crimea and Russia border areas.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 17 Shahed drones overnight.
Fighting intensified at Avdiivka, with Russian forces clawing to gain a foothold in the southern part of the city.
In the drone wars, it has been revealed that Ukraine has developed a new jet powered drone with considerable speed and range. Capable of carrying IIRC a warhead of 300 lbs or so.
Meanwhile, evidence that Russia is using its newest, supersonic cruise missiles against Ukraine for the first time.
Russian Territory –
There has been a MASSIVE explosion in Votkinsk, Russia. The Votkinsk Machine Building Plant - manufacturer of several Russian ICBMs - is headquartered here. This is over 1000 km from the front lines.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ukraine is feeling the strain of the loss of artillery ammunition to counter the Russian batteries. Ukraine’s defense has successfully kept Russian forces at bay due to quick, accurate fire and counterbattery support suppression Russian artillery support. This has left its European allies scrambling to increase production now that war stocks have been drawn down to extremely low levels. Ukraine still hold an advantage in drones providing early warning and targeting support and Ukraine is still able to provide devastating fire on Russian columns approaching the front, but sustainable fire during the rest of the fight is lacking.
ISRAEL –
Now 4 months into the Gaza War
Key overnight developments -
- Israel begins preparations to enter Rafah.
- US Reaper drone takes out two leaders of the Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for the attack that killed 3 US soldiers and wounded dozens others.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
Israel has now confirmed 32 hostages have been murdered by Hamas. They believe another 20 hostages may also have been murdered.
The Palestinian President received the US Secretary of State in Ramallah
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday met in Tel Aviv with Benny Gantz and Gabi Eisenkot, two former military chiefs who joined Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet after the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel.
The talks were to focus on “the hostages and the strong desire that we both have to see them returned to their families, the work that’s being done to that end”, Blinken said as they opened the meeting.
“The most urgent issue is of course to find ways to bring back the hostages,” Gantz told Blinken.
***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a press conference on Wednesday, during which he criticized the executive order signed by US President Joe Biden to impose sanctions on four residents of Judea and Samaria accused of violence against Palestinian Arabs.
“This order is a very severe and inappropriate thing which harms an entire population of law-abiding citizens, among whom are soldiers who fell in the fight to eliminate Hamas. If they were using it equally- they would have imposed sanctions on Palestinians as well,” the Prime Minister said when asked on the matter.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-18/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered troops to prepare to enter the overcrowded southern Gaza city of Rafah. According to the report, the operation in Rafah is not expected to begin in the near future. Israel will first need to evacuate civilians, and so will not be able to operate with 1.2 million Gazans in the region. Israel’s main challenge is finding a destination to which to transfer them, especially with Israel continuing to object to their return to northern Gaza. Any operation would likewise require coordination with Egypt.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces bombed areas in the southern border city of Rafah where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering on Thursday.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IDF strikes on Homs reportedly killed several Hezbollah soldiers.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi managed to fire some more rockets, with no effect, while US combat patrols managed to locate and destroy Houthi drone/missile positions getting ready to fire.
See Iraq on US strike that is believed to have killed two IRGC related leaders / advisors to Kata’ib Hezbollah responsible for the deaths of three US soldiers last week.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordan Government media - The Jordanian king leaves on a tour visiting Western capitals in order to pressure an end to the war
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The progress of the Israeli S Gaza campaign towards Rafah is moving forward. No public word from Egypt on the announced plans. Rafah is a community built at the Egyptian border crossing into Gaza. In the past Egypt has made clear it will not permit IDF operations in the city without its OK. Now, a vast number of arabs have congregated there as a safe zone from fighting further north. So not only does Israel have to deal with Egypt, but where to move these refugees to and how to safeguard relief supplies coming into Gaza.
Israel is already nibbling on the outskirts of the town, probably conduction battle field preparations for the full scale attack. How Israel handles Egypt is going to be one of the most delicate political moves they have faced since the founding of the country. Bottom line is, one way or another, they will enter the city and clear it of Hamas and related terrorists.
The taking out of the Kata’ib Hezbollah leaders responsible for the deadly attack on the US base in Jordan will definitely stir up the pot. The Kata’ib Hezbollah had earlier announced a ‘cease fire’ against the US to prevent further embarrassment to Iraq. Expect more attacks.
The quickness in targeting and more importantly timeliness of the intel is impressive. Knowing the exact civilian vehicle among thousands, and its course and destination - impressive. US still has some good HUMINT assets on the ground - something Kata’ib Hezbollah may think twice about.
Iraq -
February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region. There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. 2 Kataib Hezbollah commanders were in the vehicle called, Abu Baqir Al-Saadi and Arkan Al-Alawi.
Parts including one of the six blades from a AGM-114R9X “Hellfire” missile launched by a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” drone have been discovered at the scene of the strike in Baghdad
Iraqi security forces almost immediately sealed off access to the ‘Green Zone’ in anticipation of protests against the US over the strike.
Misc of Note –
The Carleson- putin interview is going to be smothering the interwebs for a considerable time, so I’d thought I’d note some things here as not to muddle up the important stuff.
- First, he is a journalist and they do interviews like this.
- Second - I will not take putins comments or claims at the gospel truth. He is KGB through and thru and understands the use of misinformation and the current political climate in the US to stir things up. There will be copious amounts of - see putin said x so it is true - over the next days. I won’t go down that rabbit hole.
- Whether you are pro or anti Ukraine war, be very clear about this. As i just stated putin will make every opportunity to present his ‘case’ for the war in Ukraine and shine it in his favor. He is also in an election cycle and having some problems for his handling of the war, as well as other economic matters. He will use this interview internally so show what a great leader he is.
- I certainly hope Tucker isn’t stupid enough to believe he isn’t going to be used on the above. i also certainly hope he doesn’t jump down on one side or the other - his ability to be in a sense neutral is critical to his reporting on this. If he takes putin’s unsubstantiated claims and runs with it as the untarnished truth, then his credibility comes into question.
- Publish the interview, but verify the claims made throughly.
- Finally and perhaps a little redundant, putin knows passions here regarding funding of the war are peaking. It is to his advantage to enlarge the gap between the two groups as it undermines overall western support of Ukraine. He’ll say what ever is necessary to enlarge the debate.
For the record, right now I’m neutral on the interview. I think it is good to hear what he has to say - the closely examine the claims to ground truth reality.