Weekend watch for developments between US air strikes against Iran and Iranian assets in the ME region.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Rubber bullets and water cannons were deployed against hundreds of European farmers protesting outside the EU Parliament building in Brussels on Thursday. The farmers threw eggs, set off fireworks, and started fires near the building while demanding that European leaders stop punishing them with more taxes and rising costs imposed to finance a so-called ‘green agenda.’
The farmers in Portugal have now joined the European wide farmers protest against climate agenda.
The Dutch farmers have now set up blockades of supermarket distribution centers in the Netherlands.
Croatian MEP, Mislav Kolakušić, to the EU parliament - “The EU is using the climate scam as a pretext to seize agricultural land from farmers, with the ultimate goal of creating deliberate food shortages.”
OBSERVATION - Push back on this major point of the Globalist agenda continues to grow in Europe. Besides being a basic life or death (no food, no life), these farmers are laying down their careers and family heritage to oppose this level of tyranny. The real fact of life is that once these globalist powers shut down these farms, they will likely never be reopened/restarted. This will create a forced famine that will have the full potential, when followed to its logical conclusion, to kill billions from starvation and the accompanying wars to secure food supplies.
You are the carbon they wish to reduce.
***
Microsoft founder Bill Gates recently interviewed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to discuss the future of AI and the potential for new global controls to maintain peace, safety and democracy around the world. The question is: Whose ideas must the global population submit to in order for there to be world peace? OpenAI and Microsoft are currently working to promote artificial intelligence as a tool for influencing governments around the world and for solving global challenges. Source
During the interview, Gates and Altman lamented how the U.S. government failed to reign in “polarization” across social media over the past four years. They believe that AI could solve the problem of “polarization” and therefore “save democracy.”
To do this, AI would have to be engineered in a way to control speech and impose lies as facts – brainwashing the population with propaganda and deceiving people until everyone is forced to agree for the sake of “unity.”
During the conversation, Gates explored the idea of using AI as an instrument to foster “unity” throughout society. Forcing all people to obey narratives that are propagated by Bill Gates will come at a high cost. The global elite’s gambit for this kind of “world peace” will most certainly backfire, leading to mass protests and further societal division. This type of rebellion was already witnessed during the installation of COVID vaccine mandates and vaccine passports, two ideas imposed by Bill Gates and his colleagues from the World Economic Forum. From Australia to Europe to Canada, populations pushed back against the censorship, abuse and unlawful mandates. However, even this reality could all be rewritten with AI that is engineered by people like Bill Gates.
OBSERVATION - The explosion last year of AI to the open market has continued to grow exponentially. AI ‘fakes’ are proliferating everywhere. Gates indirectly indicates that AI production of fake narratives to cover the real actions of the WEF et al and to counter any opposition - i.e. “misinformation’ are clearly threatening to free speech and free thought.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Florida is sending over 1000 NG and State Militia to TX to assist in border controls.
***
Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters blocked five major roadways in the Washington, DC, area during Thursday morning rush hour in objection to the country’s support for Israel.
Reports published just before 8:45 a.m. showed traffic standstill on the major highways, with the NOVA Campaigns X account writing, “A coordinated protest is locking down the major highways into DC… Kids and parents stranded. Ambulances can’t move. Hospitals blocked off. Government proceedings interrupted/delayed”
OBSERVATION - Annoying but tame. Not violent threatening tactics towards drivers. However, unlike to win the hearts and minds of those who’s day they screwed up.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Thousands of shipments of new Ford electric trucks have been canceled, at Dearborn MI. and Claycomo MO. assembly plants, resulting in massive layoffs. Some of these workers may be able to be transferred to production plants where gas/diesel fueled vehicles are still being produced.
OBSERVATION - This was bound to happen as the public doesn’t share the pie in the sky claims of the regime and swayed automakers that EVs are the salvation of the future. Ford for instance has been losing tens of thousands of dollars per vehicle. The latest winter snap has shown just how worthless EVs are as the temperature drops. Electrical work at homes to allow one to connect their EVs without blowing every fuse in the house are going up rapidly as well.
***
Jobs sector continues to look bleak. According to a new report published by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, found that companies planned 82,307 job cuts in January, a substantial 136% increase from the previous month. However, that is down about 20% from the same time one year ago. It marked the second-highest layoff total for the month of January in data going back to 2009.
“Waves of layoff announcements hit U.S.-based companies in January after a quiet fourth quarter,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The cuts were “driven by broader economic trends and a strategic shift towards increased automation and AI adoption in various sectors, though in most cases, companies point to cost-cutting as the main driver for layoffs.”
Financial companies bore the brunt of the job losses in January, with the industry shedding 23,238 employees. That is the highest monthly layoff total for the financial sector since September 2018, when it announced 27,343 job cuts.
The technology sector followed with 15,806 layoffs, the most since May 2023 and a stunning 254% increase from just one month prior.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Many of the trials against Trump are in the process of being unraveled - even those with confirmed anti-Trump judges.
Major fights in Congress circle around a ‘reformed’ (which only confirms continued illegal access into the country at near these abominable rates), funding for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. Just about every bill being voted on has the anti-Midas touch, instead of gold, it turns everything to crap.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Eagle Pass TX before the state took over, was the source of approximately 25% of all illegal traffic into the US. Those numbers have come to a screeching halt. Hopefully we’ll see the January numbers so see just how much of an impact it has had.
Illegals getting a free pass to commit more crimes in the US, as 75% of democrats voted to permit them to commit fraud against the Social Security system and to avoid deportation from DUI offenses. (I have to ask - how can they get a drivers license being here illegally in the first place).
More and more sanctuary cities are confiscating facilities popular with its citizenry for holding areas for illegals. This is particularly true for those buildings and facilities built for the local low income / poverty areas. This set up even more friction between the old democrat dependency class and their new favorite dependency class (illegals).
North/South Korea –
NK fired off more cruise missiles overnight.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
Putin has announced Russia’s plans to integrate the occupied Ukrainian territories into Russia by 2030.
Economic Impact –
Drone attacks by Ukraine have reduced the export of oil products from Russia — Reuters
Successful drone attacks by the Security Service of Ukraine on major oil refineries reduced Russian exports of oil products by almost a third.
According to Reuters, in January, gasoline exports fell by 37%, diesel exports by 23%.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 24 Shahed drones overnight. Blackouts in Kryvyi Rih after Russian drones targeted power infrastructure
Followup on the Belbek airport strike from yesterday’s report. The Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike reportedly killed Russian Lieutenant General Alexander Tatarenko and 10 other servicemen, according to Russian Sources. Tatarenko is the 2nd Russian Lieutenant General to get killed by Ukraine
More video of the successful attack on the Russian corvette “Ivanovets” (Project 12411) have been released . The Russian corvette got hit by four Ukrainian USVs. Two hits on the stern to damage the drive, the other two midship, with the second hit following in where the first penetrated. This caused a massive explosion of the munitions carried by the ship, which then quickly tipped over and sank stern first. Crew on the ship barely put us any kind of a fight until after the first two hits - apparently completely caught off guard.
Russia casualties being reported by Ukraine have jumped significantly over the past week, possible reflecting losses from the attempted start of the Russian winter/spring offensive. This increase is roughly 40-60% higher, now solidly being reported as over 1000 casualties per day. Associated reported losses of tanks, APCs and artillery have gone up as well. There may be an inflation factor since the source is the Ukraine military, but Russian milbloggers are reporting heavy losses in all categories as well, so these numbers may not be that far off and do reflect a trend.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Most of the ground fighting reflect attempts to improve their current tactical conditions. Ukraine has executed counter attacks as well and has regained some ground. If Ukraine gets a timely resupply of artillery ammo, Russia’s offensive may grind to a very quick halt.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on Jan. 31 that Moldova is economically “strangling” regions in Moldova that do not agree with the Moldovan government’s policies likely referring to both Transnistria and Gagauzia, whose leaders have reportedly complained about Moldovan economic policies recently.
Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is using increased “Russophobic rhetoric” to divert attention from Moldova’s internal socio-economic and political problems.
OBSERVATION - Though many reports on the happenings in Moldova regarding the Russian captured province of Transnistria have been below the radar, Russia maintains a focus on trying to keep Moldova at bay over thoughts of retaking the region now that the Russian military presence has been substantially reduce due to the Ukraine war.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US Sanctioning Israeli citizens in West Bank
- Negotiation for a temporary pause in fighting to facilitate exchanges of the hostages for terrorist prisoners continue to stumble.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
US Department of State - Under a new Executive Order announced today, the U.S. imposed sanctions on four extremist settlers for their destabilizing acts in the West Bank.
John Kirby - There are no plans to target Israeli government officials with sanctions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office called US sanctions against four violent settlers in the West Bank unnecessary, in a statement issued soon after US President Biden announced the measures.
“Israel acts against all lawbreakers everywhere, so there is no need for exceptional measures in this regard,” Netanyahu was quoted as saying.
The statement said the majority of Israeli settlers in the West Bank were “law-abiding” and that those who were not were subject to prosecution in Israel.
OBSERVATION - Unprecedented US interjection into Israel’s rights and jurisdiction. As Netanyahu made clear, these individuals are being brought to Israeli justice, and the US should keep its nose out of Israeli business.
***
The Biden administration is bucking decades of US foreign policy by considering a plan to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, despite deep opposition to the move within Israel.
Both Axios and The New York Times reported on Wednesday about this potential major shift in the American approach towards Palestinian statehood, which hitherto has emphasized direct negotiations between Jerusalem and Ramallah.
OBSERVATION - This continues to be a very dangerous track that the US is following - to recognize a Palestinian state. But biden et al and anti-Israeli nations are chomping at the bit for such an action.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Army statement: “Over the past day, IDF ground forces coordinated with the IAF have continued to target terrorists and destroy terrorist infrastructure in the Gaza Strip.
In addition, Israeli Naval troops struck terror targets across the Gaza Strip coastline as part of the effort to assist the troops operating on the ground.
IDF ground troops continue to operate in western Khan Yunis, Over the past day, over 20 terrorists were killed, primarily during close-quarters combat.
Furthermore, during the activity, the troops conducted targeted raids on a number of different terror targets and military compounds in which AK-47 rifles, grenades, explosive devices, military equipment, and ammunition were located.
***
Israel is preparing to expand its war on the Gaza Strip further south, near the Egyptian border, after claiming to have routed Hamas in Khan Younis.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that success against Palestinian militants in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, where Israel launched a major ground assault last week, meant its forces could advance to Rafah on the enclave’s southern border.
“We are achieving our missions in Khan Younis, and we will also reach Rafah and eliminate terror elements that threaten us,” Gallant said in a statement.
***
The IDF’s 646th Brigade destroyed a complex used by Hamas to produce rockets in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said Friday.
The complex contained civilian and dual-use machines which were converted by Hamas for the production of weapons.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
US Secretary of Defense - “We do not want a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and we are communicating with the Israelis to ensure that the war does not expand.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli bombed sites in southern Damascus overnight. Likely Hezbollah/Iranian facilities. initial reports from Iranian media they killed an IRGC advisor Saeed Alidadi in the strike, describing him as, “a fighter of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.”
The Israeli strike reportedly targeted a farm on the road between Aqraba and Sayeda Zeinab near the regime’s headquarters of electronic warfare in southern Damascus
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Repeated US and UK air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen have failed to slow their attacks on ships in the region, BBC Verify has found.
There have been nine attacks on ships in the past three weeks, compared with six in the previous three weeks.
Since the US-led strikes began on 11 January, shipping using the vital Red Sea trade route has dropped by 29%.
The Houthis initially said they were attacking ships connected to Israel, or heading to or from there. But since air strikes began in January they have mostly targeted ships tied to owners or operators in the UK or US.
In total, 28 vessels have been targeted since Houthi attacks began in November. We’ve identified seven of these with links to Israeli companies, individuals or destinations.
Of the nine ships attacked since the air strikes began, five had American or British links, and none had identifiable Israeli links.
As well as their targets, their tactics have changed.
In November and December, their attacks were concentrated at the southern end of the Red Sea close to the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait where ships are forced to sail very close to the coast of Houthi-controlled Yemeni territory.
In recent weeks they have been mainly striking further to the south in the Gulf of Aden.
The Houthis have also changed how they attack. Initially they used both missiles and drones carrying explosives, but more recent attacks have used mainly missiles launched from Yemen.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68159939
***
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday it’s time to further disable Iran-backed militias that have struck at U.S. forces and ships in the Middle East and the U.S. is preparing to take significant action in response to the deaths of three U.S. service members in Jordan.
For days the U.S. has hinted strikes are imminent. While the threat of retaliation for Sunday’s deaths has driven some militant groups to say they were stopping hostilities, as late as Thursday Yemen’s Houthi rebels were still attacking vessels and fired a ballistic missile at a Liberian-flagged container ship in the Red Sea.
***
The HMS Richmond (F239), a Type 23 Frigate with the British Royal Navy reportedly entered the Red Sea earlier today via the Suez Canal in order to Join the HMS Diamond (D34) and several U.S. Navy Ships, including the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), in the Maritime Security Coalition known as Operation Prosperity Guardian as well as Operation Poseidon Archer, which is meant to Degrade the Offensive Capabilities of the Houthi Terrorist Group in Western Yemen.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed.
The whole “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” issue with their Iranian support continues to build in importance and potential for expansion of the conflict.
The US Secretary of Defense calls on Iran to stop supplying the Houthis with weapons. What Iran-backed “Houthis are doing is an int’l crime. They are trying to sink ships that have nothing to do with Israel,” Houthis don’t care, so far US/UK airstrikes have done very little to deter their actions.
Same for Iranian backed militias attacking US forces Syria, Iraq and now Jordan. So far all the administration has done is bluster and beat their chest. They have telegraphed their intent so much that any prolonged, multi-day bombing campaign will likely fail to do any good, as men, materials and critical infrastructure will be moved and hidden.
There are some who figure that sometime after the close of the stockmarket today the retaliatory strikes will begin. Waning moon over the next couple weeks will also work to the US’s advantage.
Honestly, at this stage I don’t see this campaign being announced as having much effect and will likely be way watered down. The biden regime is so paranoid about getting into a direct conflict with Iran that they are almost wetting themselves is very evident. This weekend may well be busy this weekend, but that will be about it. Granted, they may surprise me and get real serious about it, but their track record isn’t that good.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
World waiting to see just how significant the warned air strikes against Iranian assets, and Iranian backed militias will be. See Israel above for more analysis. Not expecting very much bang for the bluster.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi officials have told their US counterparts that Riyadh would not insist Israel take concrete steps to create a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia would be willing to accept a political commitment from Israel to create a Palestinian state, rather than anything more binding, in a bid to get a defense pact with Washington approved before the US presidential election, three sources said.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-784866
OBSERVATION - More push for separate acknowledgement of a pali state.
Maintaining watch over events with any additional US air strikes into Syria and Iraq (and maybe even Houthi controlled Yemen)
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
White House adviser John Podesta will be the top U.S. climate diplomat when high flying John Kerry steps down this spring and ceases his endless global tours warning the world of impending doom.
White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients said in a written statement, shared Wednesday with The Washington Post, CNN and The Hill.
“John has — and will continue to be — at the helm of driving the implementation of the most significant climate law in history,” Zients added.
OBSERVATION - This is tracking down the dark side. There are rumors a plenty concerning satanic connections of the young and restless inhabitants of the global elite as is. Now we have a very documented pedophile and satanist representing the US.
Podesta also has deep links to China and those may be exploited to try to gain concessions on trade issues as well as global warming.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Multiple members of the Oregon state Senate who walked out for more than 40 days last year have been banned from the 2024 ballot by an Oregon Supreme Court ruling.
In 2023, nine Republicans and one independent refused to take their seats in a 42-day protest against a bill supporting abortion and health care to support gender transitions, according to KATU.
In 2022, voters passed what’s known as Measure 113.
Measure 113 said “any state legislator who accrues 10 or more unexcused absences during a legislative session shall be disqualified from holding legislative office” immediately following the current term.
OBSERVATION - This is just a piece of the fight going on in the left coast. Supermajorities in CA, OR and WA stomp all over the rural, red eastern portions of those states. This leaves few options for republicans/conservatives to fight back with. This heavy handed move by OR will further alienate the rural areas by denying them their representation of choice. As the article notes, this will only really affect 4 of the 10 in the short term. All are from reliable red areas. Expect to see an even harder push for the “Greater Idaho” movement.
***
The U.S. Palestinian Community Network (USPCN), the National Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression (NAARPR), and National Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) called for a “week of action” from 5 to 11 February.
OBSERVATION - Observers are noting that the pro-Hamas movement is losing traction as the issues and concerns arising from the Gaza war drop off of people’s radar screens. This seems to be an effort to reverse that trend. Expect demonstrations to pick up as early as this weekend, with most of them focused on disrupting normal public activity and travel (i.e. road blockages and targeted protests at jewish and democrat related sites).
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
RUMINT - Multiple border patrol sources confirm—The soft-sided migrant processing facility “Firefly” in Eagle Pass evacuated everyone to other facilities within the Del Rio Sector last night—The FBI was alerted to threats by two known extremists who are targeting Firefly because they claim it is a “smuggling hub” saying they “plan to overthrow it by any means necessary” —The report shows this could happen anytime between today and Monday.
According to the reports, they are also planning to infiltrate the truck convoy headed here and target other law enforcement. Firefly is reportedly being guarded by Border Patrol’s BORTAC unit.
OBSERVATION - Placing this under RUMINT as there are very few quality news sources to support the claim and it may be PR effort to reduce support for the Truckers convoy to the border. It has raised the level of my concern to the level of reporting this information rather than passing it by.
That said, there have been some rumors concerning agent provocateurs infiltrating into the Trucker’s convoy in support of TX efforts to seal the border working to set off a ‘false flag’ event. Such would be used to go after the organizers and truckers in a J6 manner of prosecution.
Economy-
(Bloomberg) — The US cattle herds shrank to the lowest level in more than seven decades as ranchers continue to send their cows to slaughter, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels for consumers for at least another couple of years while eroding profits for meat processors.
There were 87.2 million cattle as of January 1, down about 2% from a year ago and less than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its biannual cattle-inventory report. That’s the smallest animal count since 1951, according to USDA data.
American ranchers have for the past four years been culling more cows than they were retaining for breeding because of persistent droughts, surging feed costs and elevated interest rates. While improved pasture conditions and attractive prices are starting to encourage them to change direction, herds aren’t expected to start rebounding before at least 2026, said Lane Broadbent, president of KIS Futures Inc. in Oklahoma City.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-cattle-herd-shrinks-73-201317215.html
OBSERVATION - i disagree with this statement from the first paragraph of this article - “. . . ranchers continue to send their cows to slaughter, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels for consumers for at least another couple of years while eroding profits for meat processors.”
Were rancher to cut off sending cows to processors, meat prices would REALLY skyrocket unbelievably. Such ignorance by the article authors of how the process works.
It takes years for cattle ranchers to recover from reductions that the recent major drought has caused. Add to it the increasing regulatory pressures, fees and taxes the regime is placing on the industry all in the name of fighting global warming, and this recovery comes even slower. Selling cattle for slaughter is what puts money in the pockets of rancher, so a certain percentage needs to be sold to enable the ranch to function and the herd to grow. Similar woes are hitting sheep, pigs and poultry.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Syria below regarding strikes against Islamic Resistance elements.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Successful Chinese cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Guam or other Indo-Pacific footholds could cripple U.S. military capabilities in the region, the leader of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command said.
Guam is a key outpost for U.S. forces in the increasingly competitive area, where Washington thinks a fight with Beijing could erupt. The island serves as a logistics and munitions hub, as well as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance node.
An assault on the networks and information technology that support Guam’s distribution of electricity, water, food and emergency response could “have a very significant impact” on the options available to military commanders at the time, said Gen. Paul Nakasone.
“Communications, an ability to leverage our most lethal weapon systems — these are all areas that we would rely on,” he said during a Jan. 31 hearing held by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. “We have to operate every day, we have to have vigilance, we have to have offensive and defensive capabilities.”
OBSERVATION - China has gotten increasingly adept at targeting cyber systems and has made the capability of successfully conducting such attacks a high priority. A cyber attack on Guam would definitely gum up any US response to Chinese action and would be ‘safer’ that a direct, physical attack by missiles.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The McConnell/Schumer supported so called ‘immigration reform’ package, crafted in secret, is reportedly being forced down the throat of the senate with the release to senators as early as this weekend and a vote sometime next week. The republicans need 41 votes against it to sustain a filibuster of the measure. McConnell has reportedly been doing some severe arm twisting to get the Republican votes in support. One of the bill’s more dastardly effects is to codify the illegal tsunami at near its current, grossly unsustainable levels.
This bill has also been tied to Ukraine funding - a big lever in the argument that has many republican senators chomping at the bit.
Speaker Johnson has said this bill will be DOA upon reaching the House, but that is a dangerous thing as well. Republicans have a much smaller advantage following resignations and explosions and there are some republicans who have voiced favor for the bill.
Should it pass both houses, biden will sign it in a heart beat - condemning our nation into spiraling into a third world hell of our own making.
***
Starting to see some actual numbers on the effects of the TX taking control of the border regions.
Illegal border crossings are down 76% in January in Eagle Pass according to the CBP.
Last month, Texas saw 3-4,000 illegal crossings daily in the Del Rio sector.
Now that number is down to 200 per day.
China –
See Guam threat under “Cyber attacks/warfare” above.
North/South Korea –
On Friday, KCNA reported that Kim had visited the Nampho Dockyard, which is located in the city of Nampho on North Korea’s west coast and constructs both warships and civilian ships. The North Korean leader told the dockyard that it’s charged with a very important task in developing the country’s shipbuilding industry and strengthening its naval force, which was the most important issue in reliably defending the maritime sovereignty of the country and stepping up war preparations, according to KCNA.
OBSERVATION - The construction of submarines may well be the most important vessel Kim may be looking towards. To develop surface combatants able to stand up to modern warfare will be a major step - needling a proper mix of different classes of ships with the offensive/defensive capabilities needed today. NK has many of the technological advances, but needs quality platforms to mount them in. NK is a neophyte to modern naval operations, so there will also be a significant learning curve.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
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RUMINT-
Growing speculation that Russian General Russia Gerasimov is dead
He is thought to have been killed early Jan in an Ukraine strike in Crimea.
This week Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held another of his defense ministry updates, but Gerasimov was nowhere to be seen.
Logistics –
The drone strike has taken the largest oil refinery in the Southern Federal District of Russia - Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd off line.
Economic Impact –
Ukraine drone attacks may have damaged as much as 30 % of Russia’s oil exports.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 14 Shahed drones overnight
Russian air defense shot down 7 drones over Belgorod, Rostov and Volgograd regions. Volgograd refinery caught fire as result of debris crash. Other reports that the refinery was a direct hit by drones.
Both private and Russian sources confirm Ukrainian advances in western Krynky, while also gaining further control over supply lines in the Dnipro and branches towards the left bank. Russians may be stripping more combat capable forces from this region to support their offensive in the east. A risky act given that this is the most direct route to cut off Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia continues to press its offensive in the east, with minor tactical successes at best. Some analysts are saying that the limited, local successes mean that the Ukraine defense is crumbling and Russians are going to march into Kyiv (ok, a little hyperbola). Folks forget Ukraine has an extensive defense in depth and Russia has little to no armor/APC capability to speak of to exploit. Soil conditions are still predominantly muddy, making maneuver warfare conditions nearly impossible.
Associated with the offensive are more reports of blunders by Russian forces - untrained and poorly coordinated tank/APC attacks that end up getting chewed up very heavily. Poor coordination extends to artillery support, though greatly improved at the moment due to Ukraine artillery shortages, leave the Russian armor columns sitting ducks for ATGM and precision artillery fire.
As noted above, Ukrainian advances in western Krynky are expanding their Dniper River bridgehead. Russia reportedly has not committed any more combat capable forces into the region, just cycling the same, heavy depleted forces, into the fight. Ukraine has also been acquiring bridging assets / pontoons. I am half thinking that Ukraine may make a bold strike across the Dniper with the assets if/when the soil freezes. This attack would be characteristic of many of their attacks. It would put access to Crimea in danger. If Ukraine manages to hit the Kerch Bridge again and at least damages it enough to close it for multiple months, the possibility of a breakout attempt near Krynky grows.
Otherwise I expect to see near static conditions along the front with no major breakouts in the near future.
Finally, scuttlebutt concerning the prolonged absence from public of Gerasimov is growing with the Kremlin responding by not responding. Apart from his position in the MoD, Gerasimov was a lackluster general and if dead, will not significantly affect Russian operations in the near term.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania on Thursday joined the growing list of NATO countries who’s had a prominent official warn about the potential of going to war with Russia.
General Gheorghiță Vlad, Romania’s chief of defense, said during an interview with Europa Liberă România—a news service from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty—that his country currently isn’t prepared for the prospect of war with Russia and warned it needs to take such a threat seriously.
OBSERVATION - Growing war drums in Europe. What are they actually seeing? Is this a prequel to entering the Ukraine fight?
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Potential ceasefire agreement moving forward.
- US and Jordanian forces bomb “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” sites in Iraq and Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas officials said on Friday that the group was studying a proposed cease-fire deal that would include prolonged pauses in fighting in Gaza and swaps of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
However, the group also appeared to rule out some key components of the proposal.
Hamas’ top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, has been in Cairo for the past two days to evaluate the offer.
Haniyeh said in a statement on Friday that negotiations must “completely end” Israeli military operations in Gaza and bring about the withdrawal of Israeli forces — terms Israel has rejected.
U.S. supports aspects of the proposed truce agreement in Gaza and calls on Israel to accept it
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
The Israeli army says it struck a truck used to store weapons for Hezbollah in the southern Lebanon village of Kafrchouba earlier today. Fighter jets also struck a Hezbollah site in Blida, the Israeli army says.The strikes come following attacks on the border today, including projectiles fired from Lebanon at Avivim and Yir’on. There are no injuries in the Hezbollah attacks, the Israeli army says
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Airstrikes, believed to be Israeli, at Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin and Deir Ez Zor overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Intelligence officials in the Biden administration said Iran does not have “full control” over proxy groups, like Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and the Houthis, conducting attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East.
***
CENTCOM Statement on U.S. Stikes in Iraq and Syria. At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces
The strike package included at least 2 B-1 bombers, 10 fighter/bombers under CENTCOM including A-10s and Jordanian F-16s.
The series of US strikes lasted about 30 minutes, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, adding the Defense Department was still assessing the effect. A second round of strikes are expected today.
***
Iran-backed militias targeted Harir Air Base in northern Iraq, where US troops are stationed
***
Houthi military spokesman - “We carried out a military operation with ballistic missiles against Israeli targets in Eilat”
No reports of Israeli air defense action, so it is thought the missile failed to reach the target.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian F-16s joined in the US operation against Syrian and Iraqi “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” targets - WSJ
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed. Israel has consistently stated that this operation will likely go on for the better part of a year.
US bombing campaign against “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” elements retribution of the death of three US servicemen/women.
This is so convoluted but I’m putting my analysis the overnight air strikes here rather than under Iran, Syria or Iraq below since it is dealing with the Islamic Resistance factor of the Gaza War.
Never have I seen such a telegraphed attack since Bush’s “Shock and Awe” strikes during the invasion of Iraq. Announcements from literally take off of the B-1 thru entry into the middle eastern region were a violation of just about every principle of surprise the military teaches. This already on top a what I see as an apologetic blitz by the US to pacify Iran - that gave them plenty of time to move men and material out of the most likely targets. It further put our aircraft in danger of alerted air defense assets.
Now info is coming out that this once declared ‘multi-day’ assault may only last a couple of days. Far too few for what is needed. This remains to be seen.
Did this deter the Iranian backed militias? The answer is no as they attacked Harir Air Base in northern Iraq, where US troops are stationed.
Also noting that no Houthi targets were hit - what’s up with that.
The biden administration claim that Iran does not have “full control” over proxy groups, is very simply a signal from the Biden administration to Iran that Biden wants to avoid escalating the current conflict by targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force personnel operating in Iraq and Syria. This provides a ‘fig leaf’ by the US for Iran. This assessment is clearly comical at the very best.
The attack attempted to hit some important sites, without taking out islamic fighters. We will have to see just what the next round of attacks accomplish. I’m not holding out much for that. Right now my assessment of this ‘first’ attack is underwhelming. biden et al are so bed wetting scared of a war with Iran that they are further endangering out military with the way they are prosecuting this retaliatory strikes and the overall actions against these Iranian -proxy forces.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the American military attacks on a number of areas in Syria and Iraq. The U.S. attacks represent a “dangerous mistake” that will lead to increased tension and instability in the region
Iraq -
The Iraqi government states; the recent ‘blatant’ aggression resulted in the loss of 16 lives, including civilians, with 25 individuals sustaining injuries. Additionally, there were damages to residential buildings and private property owned by citizens.
Airstrikes targeted a weapons warehouse affiliated with the IRGC militias on the outskirts of Al-Bukamal city near the Al-Sinaa neighborhood
PMF 13th brigade operations headquarters was targeted in Akashat, western Iraq
Syria -
The Syrian Foreign Ministry condemns the U.S. attack and says that the United States is fueling the conflict in the region in a “dangerous way.”
The Syrian military has said that US strikes late on Friday that targeted various locations have caused “significant damage” and killed civilians and military personnel.
Airstrikes targeted the security square belonging to the IRGC militias in the outskirts of Al-Tamo neighborhood on the outskirts of the city of Al-Mayadeen in eastern Syria.
Airstrikes targeted Ayash warehouses in the western countryside of Deir ez-Zur