Maintaining watch over events with any additional US air strikes into Syria and Iraq (and maybe even Houthi controlled Yemen)
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
White House adviser John Podesta will be the top U.S. climate diplomat when high flying John Kerry steps down this spring and ceases his endless global tours warning the world of impending doom.
White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients said in a written statement, shared Wednesday with The Washington Post, CNN and The Hill.
“John has — and will continue to be — at the helm of driving the implementation of the most significant climate law in history,” Zients added.
OBSERVATION - This is tracking down the dark side. There are rumors a plenty concerning satanic connections of the young and restless inhabitants of the global elite as is. Now we have a very documented pedophile and satanist representing the US.
Podesta also has deep links to China and those may be exploited to try to gain concessions on trade issues as well as global warming.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
***
Multiple members of the Oregon state Senate who walked out for more than 40 days last year have been banned from the 2024 ballot by an Oregon Supreme Court ruling.
In 2023, nine Republicans and one independent refused to take their seats in a 42-day protest against a bill supporting abortion and health care to support gender transitions, according to KATU.
In 2022, voters passed what’s known as Measure 113.
Measure 113 said “any state legislator who accrues 10 or more unexcused absences during a legislative session shall be disqualified from holding legislative office” immediately following the current term.
OBSERVATION - This is just a piece of the fight going on in the left coast. Supermajorities in CA, OR and WA stomp all over the rural, red eastern portions of those states. This leaves few options for republicans/conservatives to fight back with. This heavy handed move by OR will further alienate the rural areas by denying them their representation of choice. As the article notes, this will only really affect 4 of the 10 in the short term. All are from reliable red areas. Expect to see an even harder push for the “Greater Idaho” movement.
***
The U.S. Palestinian Community Network (USPCN), the National Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression (NAARPR), and National Students for a Democratic Society (SDS) called for a “week of action” from 5 to 11 February.
OBSERVATION - Observers are noting that the pro-Hamas movement is losing traction as the issues and concerns arising from the Gaza war drop off of people’s radar screens. This seems to be an effort to reverse that trend. Expect demonstrations to pick up as early as this weekend, with most of them focused on disrupting normal public activity and travel (i.e. road blockages and targeted protests at jewish and democrat related sites).
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran.
CONTINUED WARNING - impending military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
RUMINT - Multiple border patrol sources confirm—The soft-sided migrant processing facility “Firefly” in Eagle Pass evacuated everyone to other facilities within the Del Rio Sector last night—The FBI was alerted to threats by two known extremists who are targeting Firefly because they claim it is a “smuggling hub” saying they “plan to overthrow it by any means necessary” —The report shows this could happen anytime between today and Monday.
According to the reports, they are also planning to infiltrate the truck convoy headed here and target other law enforcement. Firefly is reportedly being guarded by Border Patrol’s BORTAC unit.
OBSERVATION - Placing this under RUMINT as there are very few quality news sources to support the claim and it may be PR effort to reduce support for the Truckers convoy to the border. It has raised the level of my concern to the level of reporting this information rather than passing it by.
That said, there have been some rumors concerning agent provocateurs infiltrating into the Trucker’s convoy in support of TX efforts to seal the border working to set off a ‘false flag’ event. Such would be used to go after the organizers and truckers in a J6 manner of prosecution.
Economy-
(Bloomberg) — The US cattle herds shrank to the lowest level in more than seven decades as ranchers continue to send their cows to slaughter, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels for consumers for at least another couple of years while eroding profits for meat processors.
There were 87.2 million cattle as of January 1, down about 2% from a year ago and less than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its biannual cattle-inventory report. That’s the smallest animal count since 1951, according to USDA data.
American ranchers have for the past four years been culling more cows than they were retaining for breeding because of persistent droughts, surging feed costs and elevated interest rates. While improved pasture conditions and attractive prices are starting to encourage them to change direction, herds aren’t expected to start rebounding before at least 2026, said Lane Broadbent, president of KIS Futures Inc. in Oklahoma City.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-cattle-herd-shrinks-73-201317215.html
OBSERVATION - i disagree with this statement from the first paragraph of this article - “. . . ranchers continue to send their cows to slaughter, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels for consumers for at least another couple of years while eroding profits for meat processors.”
Were rancher to cut off sending cows to processors, meat prices would REALLY skyrocket unbelievably. Such ignorance by the article authors of how the process works.
It takes years for cattle ranchers to recover from reductions that the recent major drought has caused. Add to it the increasing regulatory pressures, fees and taxes the regime is placing on the industry all in the name of fighting global warming, and this recovery comes even slower. Selling cattle for slaughter is what puts money in the pockets of rancher, so a certain percentage needs to be sold to enable the ranch to function and the herd to grow. Similar woes are hitting sheep, pigs and poultry.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
See Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Syria below regarding strikes against Islamic Resistance elements.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Successful Chinese cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Guam or other Indo-Pacific footholds could cripple U.S. military capabilities in the region, the leader of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command said.
Guam is a key outpost for U.S. forces in the increasingly competitive area, where Washington thinks a fight with Beijing could erupt. The island serves as a logistics and munitions hub, as well as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance node.
An assault on the networks and information technology that support Guam’s distribution of electricity, water, food and emergency response could “have a very significant impact” on the options available to military commanders at the time, said Gen. Paul Nakasone.
“Communications, an ability to leverage our most lethal weapon systems — these are all areas that we would rely on,” he said during a Jan. 31 hearing held by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. “We have to operate every day, we have to have vigilance, we have to have offensive and defensive capabilities.”
OBSERVATION - China has gotten increasingly adept at targeting cyber systems and has made the capability of successfully conducting such attacks a high priority. A cyber attack on Guam would definitely gum up any US response to Chinese action and would be ‘safer’ that a direct, physical attack by missiles.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
The McConnell/Schumer supported so called ‘immigration reform’ package, crafted in secret, is reportedly being forced down the throat of the senate with the release to senators as early as this weekend and a vote sometime next week. The republicans need 41 votes against it to sustain a filibuster of the measure. McConnell has reportedly been doing some severe arm twisting to get the Republican votes in support. One of the bill’s more dastardly effects is to codify the illegal tsunami at near its current, grossly unsustainable levels.
This bill has also been tied to Ukraine funding - a big lever in the argument that has many republican senators chomping at the bit.
Speaker Johnson has said this bill will be DOA upon reaching the House, but that is a dangerous thing as well. Republicans have a much smaller advantage following resignations and explosions and there are some republicans who have voiced favor for the bill.
Should it pass both houses, biden will sign it in a heart beat - condemning our nation into spiraling into a third world hell of our own making.
***
Starting to see some actual numbers on the effects of the TX taking control of the border regions.
Illegal border crossings are down 76% in January in Eagle Pass according to the CBP.
Last month, Texas saw 3-4,000 illegal crossings daily in the Del Rio sector.
Now that number is down to 200 per day.
China –
See Guam threat under “Cyber attacks/warfare” above.
North/South Korea –
On Friday, KCNA reported that Kim had visited the Nampho Dockyard, which is located in the city of Nampho on North Korea’s west coast and constructs both warships and civilian ships. The North Korean leader told the dockyard that it’s charged with a very important task in developing the country’s shipbuilding industry and strengthening its naval force, which was the most important issue in reliably defending the maritime sovereignty of the country and stepping up war preparations, according to KCNA.
OBSERVATION - The construction of submarines may well be the most important vessel Kim may be looking towards. To develop surface combatants able to stand up to modern warfare will be a major step - needling a proper mix of different classes of ships with the offensive/defensive capabilities needed today. NK has many of the technological advances, but needs quality platforms to mount them in. NK is a neophyte to modern naval operations, so there will also be a significant learning curve.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 2, 2024, closing in on two years of war.
Russia is attempting to seize the initiative by executing a winter/spring offensive across the eastern front. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. Though reports indicate that there have been some limited successes, Russian forces have taken heavy losses. One key objective continues to be the capture of Avdiivak, near Donetsk, as well as terrain lost to Ukraine during the Ukraine fall offensive in 2022. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner that could help expedite any breakthrough and initiate any significant armor / mobile action. These assault axis also appear to be vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on their logistics trains.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
The Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine. This has forced Russia to redeploy fighter bombers further away from the contested zone and exercise more caution when attacking. Larger aircraft have been forced to alter their operations as well.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
*****
RUMINT-
Growing speculation that Russian General Russia Gerasimov is dead
He is thought to have been killed early Jan in an Ukraine strike in Crimea.
This week Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held another of his defense ministry updates, but Gerasimov was nowhere to be seen.
Logistics –
The drone strike has taken the largest oil refinery in the Southern Federal District of Russia - Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd off line.
Economic Impact –
Ukraine drone attacks may have damaged as much as 30 % of Russia’s oil exports.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-50 range with scattered snow and rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 9 of 14 Shahed drones overnight
Russian air defense shot down 7 drones over Belgorod, Rostov and Volgograd regions. Volgograd refinery caught fire as result of debris crash. Other reports that the refinery was a direct hit by drones.
Both private and Russian sources confirm Ukrainian advances in western Krynky, while also gaining further control over supply lines in the Dnipro and branches towards the left bank. Russians may be stripping more combat capable forces from this region to support their offensive in the east. A risky act given that this is the most direct route to cut off Crimea from the rest of Ukraine.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Russia continues to press its offensive in the east, with minor tactical successes at best. Some analysts are saying that the limited, local successes mean that the Ukraine defense is crumbling and Russians are going to march into Kyiv (ok, a little hyperbola). Folks forget Ukraine has an extensive defense in depth and Russia has little to no armor/APC capability to speak of to exploit. Soil conditions are still predominantly muddy, making maneuver warfare conditions nearly impossible.
Associated with the offensive are more reports of blunders by Russian forces - untrained and poorly coordinated tank/APC attacks that end up getting chewed up very heavily. Poor coordination extends to artillery support, though greatly improved at the moment due to Ukraine artillery shortages, leave the Russian armor columns sitting ducks for ATGM and precision artillery fire.
As noted above, Ukrainian advances in western Krynky are expanding their Dniper River bridgehead. Russia reportedly has not committed any more combat capable forces into the region, just cycling the same, heavy depleted forces, into the fight. Ukraine has also been acquiring bridging assets / pontoons. I am half thinking that Ukraine may make a bold strike across the Dniper with the assets if/when the soil freezes. This attack would be characteristic of many of their attacks. It would put access to Crimea in danger. If Ukraine manages to hit the Kerch Bridge again and at least damages it enough to close it for multiple months, the possibility of a breakout attempt near Krynky grows.
Otherwise I expect to see near static conditions along the front with no major breakouts in the near future.
Finally, scuttlebutt concerning the prolonged absence from public of Gerasimov is growing with the Kremlin responding by not responding. Apart from his position in the MoD, Gerasimov was a lackluster general and if dead, will not significantly affect Russian operations in the near term.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania on Thursday joined the growing list of NATO countries who’s had a prominent official warn about the potential of going to war with Russia.
General Gheorghiță Vlad, Romania’s chief of defense, said during an interview with Europa Liberă România—a news service from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty—that his country currently isn’t prepared for the prospect of war with Russia and warned it needs to take such a threat seriously.
OBSERVATION - Growing war drums in Europe. What are they actually seeing? Is this a prequel to entering the Ukraine fight?
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Potential ceasefire agreement moving forward.
- US and Jordanian forces bomb “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” sites in Iraq and Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 136 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas officials said on Friday that the group was studying a proposed cease-fire deal that would include prolonged pauses in fighting in Gaza and swaps of Israeli hostages taken by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
However, the group also appeared to rule out some key components of the proposal.
Hamas’ top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, has been in Cairo for the past two days to evaluate the offer.
Haniyeh said in a statement on Friday that negotiations must “completely end” Israeli military operations in Gaza and bring about the withdrawal of Israeli forces — terms Israel has rejected.
U.S. supports aspects of the proposed truce agreement in Gaza and calls on Israel to accept it
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Reports of more mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated fighters. Also more reports of Hamas popping back up in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
The Israeli army says it struck a truck used to store weapons for Hezbollah in the southern Lebanon village of Kafrchouba earlier today. Fighter jets also struck a Hezbollah site in Blida, the Israeli army says.The strikes come following attacks on the border today, including projectiles fired from Lebanon at Avivim and Yir’on. There are no injuries in the Hezbollah attacks, the Israeli army says
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Airstrikes, believed to be Israeli, at Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadin and Deir Ez Zor overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces operations to arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Intelligence officials in the Biden administration said Iran does not have “full control” over proxy groups, like Kataib Hezbollah (KH) and the Houthis, conducting attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East.
***
CENTCOM Statement on U.S. Stikes in Iraq and Syria. At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations, centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aired vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces
The strike package included at least 2 B-1 bombers, 10 fighter/bombers under CENTCOM including A-10s and Jordanian F-16s.
The series of US strikes lasted about 30 minutes, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, adding the Defense Department was still assessing the effect. A second round of strikes are expected today.
***
Iran-backed militias targeted Harir Air Base in northern Iraq, where US troops are stationed
***
Houthi military spokesman - “We carried out a military operation with ballistic missiles against Israeli targets in Eilat”
No reports of Israeli air defense action, so it is thought the missile failed to reach the target.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian F-16s joined in the US operation against Syrian and Iraqi “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” targets - WSJ
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be locally intense across all Gaza as Hamas and affiliate cells are discovered and neutralized as well as of the couple hundred miles of tunnels are uncovered and destroyed. Israel has consistently stated that this operation will likely go on for the better part of a year.
US bombing campaign against “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” elements retribution of the death of three US servicemen/women.
This is so convoluted but I’m putting my analysis the overnight air strikes here rather than under Iran, Syria or Iraq below since it is dealing with the Islamic Resistance factor of the Gaza War.
Never have I seen such a telegraphed attack since Bush’s “Shock and Awe” strikes during the invasion of Iraq. Announcements from literally take off of the B-1 thru entry into the middle eastern region were a violation of just about every principle of surprise the military teaches. This already on top a what I see as an apologetic blitz by the US to pacify Iran - that gave them plenty of time to move men and material out of the most likely targets. It further put our aircraft in danger of alerted air defense assets.
Now info is coming out that this once declared ‘multi-day’ assault may only last a couple of days. Far too few for what is needed. This remains to be seen.
Did this deter the Iranian backed militias? The answer is no as they attacked Harir Air Base in northern Iraq, where US troops are stationed.
Also noting that no Houthi targets were hit - what’s up with that.
The biden administration claim that Iran does not have “full control” over proxy groups, is very simply a signal from the Biden administration to Iran that Biden wants to avoid escalating the current conflict by targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force personnel operating in Iraq and Syria. This provides a ‘fig leaf’ by the US for Iran. This assessment is clearly comical at the very best.
The attack attempted to hit some important sites, without taking out islamic fighters. We will have to see just what the next round of attacks accomplish. I’m not holding out much for that. Right now my assessment of this ‘first’ attack is underwhelming. biden et al are so bed wetting scared of a war with Iran that they are further endangering out military with the way they are prosecuting this retaliatory strikes and the overall actions against these Iranian -proxy forces.
Iran – Potential war with US developing.
Iranian Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the American military attacks on a number of areas in Syria and Iraq. The U.S. attacks represent a “dangerous mistake” that will lead to increased tension and instability in the region
Iraq -
The Iraqi government states; the recent ‘blatant’ aggression resulted in the loss of 16 lives, including civilians, with 25 individuals sustaining injuries. Additionally, there were damages to residential buildings and private property owned by citizens.
Airstrikes targeted a weapons warehouse affiliated with the IRGC militias on the outskirts of Al-Bukamal city near the Al-Sinaa neighborhood
PMF 13th brigade operations headquarters was targeted in Akashat, western Iraq
Syria -
The Syrian Foreign Ministry condemns the U.S. attack and says that the United States is fueling the conflict in the region in a “dangerous way.”
The Syrian military has said that US strikes late on Friday that targeted various locations have caused “significant damage” and killed civilians and military personnel.
Airstrikes targeted the security square belonging to the IRGC militias in the outskirts of Al-Tamo neighborhood on the outskirts of the city of Al-Mayadeen in eastern Syria.
Airstrikes targeted Ayash warehouses in the western countryside of Deir ez-Zur
Satan putting his minions inn place, I see.