CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
(FO) Far Left reaction to Luigi Mangione’s assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson has been mostly positive.
Some members of the Far Left expressed their hope that Magione’s actions will spark a class war that leads to routine violent direct action against the for-profit healthcare system and other targets of the capitalist class.
Others described the event as “cathartic,” and tied Mangione’s actions to those of other revolutionary anarchists, such as the one involved in the assassination of U.S. President William McKinley in 1901.
One anarchist criticized the action because Mangione wasn’t part of any liberation movement or mutual support group, he was arrested without sharing his family’s wealth with “the oppressed,” and because his actions didn’t change “the system.”
OBSERVATION - (cross reference to Terrorism) The folks at Forward Observer note that as of yet, no clear linkage have been made from Manigone to the anarchist left. This hasn’t stopped the left from trying to use his murder of the CEO to drum up more radical support
“Deny, Defend, Depose” is fast becoming a rallying call by these leftists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, in collaboration with the U.S. Navy Strategic Systems Programs, recently completed a successful end-to-end flight test of a conventional hypersonic missile from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Health issues may force Sen McConnell to resign before his term is up.
Similar for Rep Pelosi, who fell down a flight of stairs in Europe yesterday, reportedly fracturing her hip.
***
Individuals in the DoJ, FBI and other alphabet agencies with ties to the weaponized actions against Trump have repeatedly started to lawyer up in anticipation of arrests and charges related to the massive amount of questionable, if not outright illegal actions against US citizens, especially Trump.
China –
Chinese naval exercises ended yesterday south of Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
In a second attempt, President Yoon Suk Yeol, was impeached by South Korea’s parliament.
Russia -
*****
Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia’s longer-term military presence in the country.
These talks appear to have achieved limited success as Rebel forces are permitting Russian units to pull out of bases in the Syrian countryside and move to the main bases in the west by the Med.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight. Out of 132 launched in total, 58 were shot down by regular air defense and another 72 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Two drones returned to Russia.
Russian losses per 14/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1040 men
+2 tanks
+24 artillery systems
Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck a large Russian oil depot this evening in the city of Oryol. Local sources report that the post-strike fire is currently burning out of control.
Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.
Overnight, Ukrainian saboteurs were able to sneak onto Russia’s Krymsk Airbase and torch a modern Russian Air Force Su-30 Flanker.
Summary —
Reported Russian losses suggest that the tempo of Russian attacks has dropped by 1/4 to 1/3. Russia still presses on the southern side of Pokrovsk, making small gains.
Strong, but mostly ineffective drone attack overnight. Ukraine has over the past year since the Shaheds were introduced by Russia fashioned a relatively effective defense. IMHO due in large part to the much smaller area needed to be defended than Russia. Ukraine still manages successful drone attacks because targets in Russia are spread out and harder to provide enough defenses for.
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Two rockets launched from the central Gaza Strip at southern Israel were intercepted by air defenses a short while ago, the military says. There are no reports of injuries or damage
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The commander of Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade was reportedly killed after Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces and terrorists exchanged fire on Saturday as the security forces attempted to clear the fighters from the West Bank city of Jenin, according to Israeli and Arab reports.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833385
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian President discusses with US delegation headed by National Security Advisor efforts to reach ceasefire agreement in Gaza
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Very quiet period for Israel. Intensity of combat in Gaza and Lebanon has gone way down as both areas shifting more to an end game scenario.
Most significant actions have been some additional IAF airstrikes on military related targets in Syria. Many assessments indicate that Israel has destroyed over 80% of Assad’s residual war fighting capabilities, drastically reducing and eliminating them from immediate use by the Rebel forces should they foolishly try and attack Israel in the near future.
Currently, all eyes are looking to see what Israel is reportedly planning to do to Iran. I mentioned previously that I think a strike on the Houthi’s will be first, as a dress rehearsal for an Iranian strike. Distances between Israel and Yemen are comparable to those to Iran and will require the similar need for refueling in an efficient and stealthy manner.
Once again, Syria’s ADA is out of the game - especially the radars that could have tipped off Iran of an incoming attack. Iran is blind and very vulnerable.
Iran –
Iran has issued a threat to Qatar that if their nuclear program facilities are hit, Iran would destroy Qatar’s oil industry.
Syria -
IAF hit several military related targets overnight.
***
The Russian news agency Tass reports: Russia has secured temporary guarantees to maintain its bases in Hmeimim (airbase) and Tartus (naval base).
It appears that Russia is evacuating its bases in other parts of Syria (yesterday, military convoys of Russian equipment were seen heading toward western Syria, to the bases in Tartus and Hmeimim).
So far the rebels are allowing the Russians to carry out the evacuation smoothly.
***
Turkish supported factions continue to attack US backed Kurdish forces in N Syria on key crossings of the Euphrates River. Kurds have been forced back to the east over the past week.
***
Proto-Syrian govt has filed a complaint with the UN over ‘violations’ of the 1974 peace agreement between Israel and Syria. Dispute focuses on Israel occupying the buffer zone with combat units.
OBSERVATIONS - The what I call the proto-Syrian govt is still trying to pull all the pieces together. There appears to be some reliance on the old structure for continuity until it can be modified or replaced.
This interruption in the govt has permitted not only Israel but Turkey as well to operate against targets in Syria to their advantage.
Russian columns retreating to the west have been verbally harassed by Syrians but not attacked. This permission to redeploy is probably the negotiations Russian has been engaging in over the past week. OSINT indicates that at the Russia naval base in Tartus and the air force base near by, equipment continues to be loaded up on cargo aircraft and ships for removal.
My gut feeling is that if the rebels permit Russian to regain full control of those bases, they will be charging a huge amount for the use to include reparations and damage costs. With Russia’s struggling economy, Russia may not be able to pay the premium plus costs.
Misc of Note –
More drones!
U.S. military confirmed drone sightings at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
There were “no impacts to base residents, facilities, or assets,” the spokesperson said.
Der Spiegel said drones were also sighted over locations belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemicals group BASF.
(Reuters)
OBSERVATION - Some of these reports now around the world may be part of a hysteria and misidentification of these aircraft.
OTOH, Reports of sightings from credible sources continue to grow as well.
There are two practical causes still in my view. One being pranks by individuals and Two, more dangerous asymmetric battlefield preparations by hostile agents, most likely at this stage being China followed by Russia. Until someone gets guts and brings one of these aircraft down, these questions will remain.
We can only pray for a real positive change in the leadership, that someone with integrity fill their shoes.
Thanks, Godzilla.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
US wholesale inflation shot higher last month, an unwelcome sign that some prices could be heating up before they come down the pike to consumers.
The Producer Price Index, a measurement of average price changes seen by producers and manufacturers, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3% for the 12 months ended in November, marking an acceleration from October, when prices increased 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday.
October’s monthly and annual rates were both revised higher from their initial estimates.
You hear that? Inflation is so high that they’re revising it upward from two months ago
[F]ood prices also surged last month by 3.1% — the category’s largest monthly spike since November 2022. The index for chicken eggs, which soared 54.6% from October was the biggest culprit and accounted for a quarter of the overall monthly jump in the PPI.
Eggs, of course, are in countless other products, meaning a spike in egg prices will likely generate a price hike in just about everything on the shelves.
https://notthebee.com/article/dont-forget-this-is-still-very-much-joe-bidens-economy
OBSERVATION - Noted agriculture costs a few days ago. No relief in sight.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
International health authorities have been dispatched to the Democratic Republic of Congo to address a respiratory illness of unknown origin. Over the weekend, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that a team has been sent to the region to discover the cause of the illness and enhance local healthcare efforts. Currently, Congolese health officials have reported 406 cases and 31 fatalities, with a significant impact on young children.
The illness, referred to as “Disease X” by the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, shares symptoms with the flu. These symptoms include body aches, fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, and anemia. Although most cases have emerged in the Kwango Province, Italian news source Il Tempo noted that a traveler from Congo was hospitalized upon developing symptoms abroad.
The underlying explanation might be an outbreak of a known deadly pathogen or multiple diseases, given Congo’s chronic struggle with epidemics due to inadequate healthcare access. The WHO statement indicates that diseases such as acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles, and malaria are under consideration as potential sources, with malnutrition possibly exacerbating the situation. Malaria, commonly found in the area, could be a contributing factor
https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/12/09/scientists-are-investigating-something-called-disease-x-heres-what-we-know/#:~:text=Scientists are Investigating Something Called ‘Disease X’ – Here’s What We Know
OBSERVATION - Not ready to raise the alert status on this yet but it is a legitimate outbreak but may be limited by environmental factors like many other diseases in Africa.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Confirmed, Pelosi had hip replacement surgery. She is going to be out of the loop for some time.
North/South Korea –
Now impeached, Yoon will still remain in office, his powers will be suspended. His prime minister, Han Duck-soo, will take on the role of acting president and the powers that Yoon lost.
Russia -
Economic Impact –
2 vessels, Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239, declared emergency and sinking in Kerch strait. 13 crew members on each, rescue operation is ongoing.
NOTE - Both vessels lost to high waves and not Ukrainian attack.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack by Russia overnight. Out of 108 Shahed drones launched, 56 were shot down by regular air defense and another 49 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more returned to Russia.
Russian losses per 15/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1280 men
+12 tanks
+32 AFVs
+26 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+2 AD systems
Head of Chechnya Kadyrov confirmed attack at the base of Rosguard special operation forces in Grozny, says 2 of 3 drones were shot down, and no casualties. This is the second attack by Ukraine in as many days.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 57 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Confirmed reports that N Korean troops have been used in these attacks and unconfirmed reports are they engaged in on foot rushes towards Ukraine positions and suffered heavy losses.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
At Kurakhivka axis clashes yesterday near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Zorya, Kurakhove, Lysivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hannivka and Uspenivka.
These attacks are threatening to isolate a pocket of the Ukraine defense on the southern most line of the Pokrovsk front
Summary —
The tempo of Russian attacks appear to have decreased, but key advances in the Kurakhivka area threaten encirclement of Ukraine forces.
The confirmed used of N Korean troops in Kursk has not gone well for them. Unconfirmed Russian milbloggers report that the forces are even more poorly trained than Russia conscripts and have killed many of their own via friendly fire than Ukraine has (prior to sending into the fight in Kursk). The meat attack, on foot rush of the NK will quickly eliminate their numbers. Running on foot across an open, snow covered field is not conducive to a long life expectancy.
War innovations ebb and flow and Ukraine’s adjustment to Russia shahed drones are a case in point. Very few drones get thru any more.
Ukraine’s attack on Chechnya are interesting and of questionable strategic value.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More airstrikes in Syria.
- Raid in Gaza takes out terrorist HQ
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF’s “Givati” infantry Brigade raided last night the Khalil al-Alda terrorist headquarters in Beit Hanoun, which was previously served as a school.
60 terrorists were killed and 30 more arrested.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
No serious action, just a few demolition projects by Israel to eliminate Hezbollah infrastructure in controlled areas of S Lebanon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria on airstrikes to prohibit arms/munitions from being used against Israel.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Ongoing Security force operations.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Still hot rumors of an impending Israeli action against Iran to take advantage of the chaos from the rebel overthrow of Assad and the resulting weak position of Iran. The fall of Hezbollah and Syria has significantly reduced the threat of a regional war against Israel, though the threats to countries hostile toward Iran in the Persian Gulf are high - targeting their oil infrastructure. These Gulf nations do not have the ADA systems Israel does, so even the most inefficient missile attack by Iran could inflict sever damage.
On the other side of the coin, such an attack on global oil will no doubt bring massive strikes by the US once Trump is in office.
Israel continuation of hitting military targets/facilities in Syria should be winding down, except that rebels keep finding arms stashes and underground sites untouched. But for all practical purposes, Israel is close to being done and will focus on consolidating its positions in the buffer zone. To do more will risk turning the rebels directly against them at a time where they are saying we really don’t want a fight with Israel. Remember - these rebels are based in AQ and ISIS doctrine and are likely just speaking such until they can consolidate power and begin shifting to an anti-Israeli mode.
In Gaza, Hamas and affiliated terror groups keep making it easy for Israel to take them out, congregating in former ‘safe’ zones where they can be quickly isolated and annihilated.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has essentially been suppressed with little or no reports of ceasefire violations against Israel nor preemptive action by Israel. Hezbollah leadership has openly confirmed that their lines of supply from Iran have been cut off and are hoping that the rebels will give them a mulligan for all the atrocities they committed against them before the overthrow so that the arms supply line can be reestablished. Don’t see that happening any time soon.
Syria -
Israeli media: The Air Force destroyed warehouses of modern missiles and rocket launchers near the town of Qastal in the Qalamoun region in the Damascus countryside. Over 60 targets in total.
Turkey –
Just hours after meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and discussing the fight against the Islamic State in Syria, Turkey’s foreign minister sent a shocking message to Washington by saying his country’s goal is to eliminate the main fighting force of the Syrian Kurds, which defeated ISIS in tandem with the U.S.
According to Turkish media, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a live broadcast on NTV that “the elimination of YPG is [Turkey’s] strategic goal.” He also noted the country’s Kurds must be protected.
The U.S. has a long-standing military alliance with the Syrian Kurdish military organization, The People’s Defense Units (YPG), in Syria. The YPG is part of a broader organization known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and played a key role in dismantling the Islamic State in Syria.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has seized on the collapse of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s rule to gobble up territory controlled by the pro-American Syrian Kurds, risking hard-won gains against the Islamist State terrorist movement.
Erdoğan’s campaign to purge the SDF in northern Syria has created a dangerous security situation in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), according to Gen. Mazloum Abdi, the SDF’s commander in chief.
OBSERVATION - Erdoğan displays his territory grab and his standard hate the Kurds message. He knows Blinken is a loser. What will happen when Trump is back in charge? Erdogan may change his tune and tactics.
***
Turkey has also offered to begin training the new rebel regime’s army which also implies providing material support given so much has been recently destroyed by Israeli airstrikes.
Misc of Note –
Runways at a Hudson Valley airport were brought to a halt after drone activity disrupted operations for approximately an hour, prompting New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to escalate calls for immediate federal intervention.
Hochul said the incident happened in Orange County on Friday, Dec. 13, at Stewart International Airport in New Windsor.
OBSERVATION - Many of the ‘drone’ videos flooding social media are clearly common aircraft. Many carry marker and other strobes that are mandated on civilian aircraft.
That said, there are many reports of more legitimate sightings. In one case, the activity was significant enough to close the NY airport. Also note, “daily voice” is not the only outlet with the story, NBC, NY Post and many others are carrying it.
Question that is concerning me now. This activity has essentially exploded following the election. Are hostile agents trying to take advantage of the lame duck president with an addled mind to initiate such actions in advance of something worse?
The Ukraine war has resulted in an explosion (no pun intended) of combat application of drones. Even relatives small drones have been modified to carry a big enough explosive to take out tanks. These reported drones are much bigger and have traversed sensitive US military and other governmental facilities with ease. Langley AFB is one such area where a drone loaded with bombs could wreak havoc on important Air Force jets in either an asymmetrical or terror attack. And similar attacks could be conducted just about anywhere in there country or world for that matter - see drone outbreaks in Europe.
Lack of govt effort to down these confirmed drones causes me to reflect back to the Chinese balloon that drifted over my home a couple years ago - without interference until it was out over the Atlantic. It is almost as if the govt is allowing these things to do what ever they are up to, just like they let China operate the balloon uninhibited.
Filter out the actual civilian aircraft misidentification, yahoos flying this own drones having fun with the flap and just fake reporting, what we have left is a serious national concern that shouldn’t be laughed or waved off until we get better evidence.