World dynamics are in flux as the overthrow of Assad now sees a new norm developing. Israel’s fight against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran shaping in potential new directions and general reactions to the impending Trump administration beginning to come around.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Patrick Frey, Deputy District Attorney at Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office, has suggested the American people will have to rise up and kill President-elect Donald J. Trump if he becomes a dictator. “If Donald Trump is going to become a tyrant, the American people will have to examine the option of dealing with him the way a citizenry deals with a tyrant.” Thomas Jefferson famously wrote that the “tree of liberty must be refreshed” with “the blood of patriots and tyrants” periodically.
Frey, who goes by ‘Patterico’ online, made the comments on Bluesky, a bolthole for former X (formerly Twitter) users fleeing the platform since Elon Musk purchased it and endorsed Trump’s third bid for the presidency.
OBSERVATION - He should be forced to step down immediately. Yet this continues to show the disregard and absolute hatred towards Trump that has driven 3 assassination attempts.
***
BLM and leftist radicals marched through Manhattan to protest the acquittal of Daniel Penny.
OBSERVATION - No significant arrests or violence from the march. Loud voices.
***
The Department of Justice and FBI provided only “limited cooperation” to the House task force investigating assassination attempts against President-elect Donald Trump, according to the task force’s final report.
https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-assassination-attempt-task-force-releases-final-report/
OBSERVATION - Refusal to cooperate fully but instead hid behind weasel words and investigation sensitivities is a non-starter. Display open disregard for the balance of powers.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
On Tuesday, the price for Arabica beans, which account for most global production, topped $3.44 a pound (0.45kg), having jumped more than 80% this year. The cost of Robusta beans, meanwhile, hit a fresh high in September.
It comes as coffee traders expect crops to shrink after the world’s two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by bad weather and the drink’s popularity continues to grow.
OBSERVATION - Oh great, now a country with grumpy coffee drinkers.
***
America’s beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half-decade, reaching 64-year lows and signaling a deepening crisis across the cattle industry. As the cattle crisis worsens, consumers should brace for higher ground beef prices.
The shrinking beef supply has pushed the nation’s herd size to its smallest level since 1961. With severe droughts, high interest rates, costly feed prices, sliding farm income, surging farm debt, and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, struggling ranchers have been culling heifers, preventing any meaningful recovery in the number of calves necessary to expand the nation’s herds.
OBSERVATION - One of the agricultural sectors targeted by the Globalists under their global warming scam and eat the bugs plan, it has been hard for ranchers to build up their herds to pre-wuhan conditions. Not only the constant war against the elements, increased govt actions have increased the hurt.
My recommendation - checkout purchasing a half of whole beef. My local meat market goes to local ranchers for their supply. The half I bought (about 380 processed and packaged pounds) ran about $4.60/lb - less than hamburger in the store. Drawbacks are that you have a sizable upfront cost and you need freezer space.
Final agricultural note. Farm related products will continue to cost more. Poultry keeps having bird flu decimation. Processing plants going off line. Produce and grains remain high due to high costs for parts, fuel, labor, additives, etc. Global trade also stressing the markets, keeping prices higher as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In a statement posted today on X, MRC founder and president Brent Bozell cautioned Congress not to pass the new version of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) introduced by Sen.Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). Bozell instead advised Congress to either enact the House of Representatives’ version of KOSA, which protects First Amendment liberties, or to wait to reform Big Tech until the new year.
Bozell explained: “Months ago, the House Energy & Commerce Committee passed a version of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) that both protected First Amendment rights and ensured the safety of our children. … Disturbingly, instead of embracing the House’s leadership on this issue, Senator Richard Blumenthal released an entirely different version of KOSA that acts as a Trojan horse for the left’s agenda.”
A Senate version of KOSA, authored by Blumenthal and endorsed by President Joe Biden, passed the U.S. Senate in July. This legislation would have made tech companies liable if the content shared on their platforms caused a child “psychological distress” or “anxiety.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) slammed the proposed statute as “very problematic” and indicated he would not bring it for a vote.
Blumenthal released yet another version of KOSA this weekend, which he claimed would assuage First Amendment concerns. While this updated version adopted some of the House’s language barring “viewpoint” discrimination, it still used vague and amorphous phrases that could incentivize more Big Tech censorship.
OBSERVATION - Lets be very clear about this. If the content shared on their platforms caused a child “psychological distress” or “anxiety.” the company can be liable. Yet these same democrats rejoice when children are forced into explicit ‘trans’ strip tease acts in public schools and libraries as well as forcing gender change on them. Double standard to the max.
The other key point - censorship of social media. The bar is exceptionally low in this bill as to what defines “psychological distress” or “anxiety” that almost anything can be claimed.
Illegal Immigration –
More liberal counties and cities passing resolutions to refuse to assist ICE in any manner in the identification and arrest of illegals in their jurisdictions. IMHO they are trying old tactics that Trump’s team have had 4 years to evaluate and identify the means to defeat it. They also have the guy ready to take over and execute those means. It may even come down to city/county leaders being arrested under federal charges for aiding and abetting criminal activity.
China –
The Chinese navy deployed a group of 60 ships and 30 coast guard vessels off the coast of Taiwan this week in what appears to be their largest show of force since 1996, according to the Wall Street Journal Tuesday.
Taiwanese authorities have also counted 47 warplanes and 21 vessels around the island in the last 24 hours, according to the WSJ. Officials said the purpose of the maneuvers is to prepare for a potential blockade of the island in the event of war.
https://thelibertydaily.com/while-sleepy-joe-quietly-disappears-world-stage-china/
OBSERVATION - Ive noted this before, the pattern of increasing the size and scale of war games like this is typical for situations where a country like China will use one of these ‘exercises’ to kick off the actual blockade of Taiwan. Egypt and Syria used the same tactic leading up to the 1973 Yon Kippor war. What these exercises do as well is to tip off military planners as to what the deployments and forces to expect when a conflict actually kicks off.
North/South Korea –
S Korean govt is still in turmoil following the aborted martial law attempt.
Russia -
*****
Russia still holding tight hopes that they will be able to reoccupy their military bases in Syria. All the while, it is still being reported that they are removing equipment from many of these bases, so far un-accosted by rebel forces. Analysts do not see Russia being allowed back in the near term, but may be playing for a longer term game.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian losses per 11/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1400 men
+2 tanks
+20 AFVs
+3 artillery systems
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims attack at fuel distribution station at Druzhba pipeline in Bryansk region of Russia. Station used by Russian military to get fuel for their equipment
Rostov region: Military enterprise was reportedly attacked in Taganrog with missiles. Possibly Beriyev aviation research complex
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian counter attacks continue, with little to no effect.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Very detailed article concerning this zone of the Russian offensive starting at the link below.
https://x.com/volodymyr_d_/status/1866583867798487225?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Just some snippets -
In October 2023, Russia defined the offensive on Pokrovsk as the main axis of its offensive campaign.
Russia’s total losses for 13 months of fighting in the Pokrovsk direction amount to about 150,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is more than Russia’s losses in the battles for Bakhmut (100,000).
Additionally, more than 580+ tanks, 1220+ APCs and 90+ pieces of artillery have been lost. More tanks lost than during the WW2 battle at Stalingrad.
The number of Russian casualties in the Battle of Pokrovsk is close to the number of the Western Military District as of 2022, which included three armies: the 1st Tank Army, the 6th and 20th General Armies.
***
Russian forces have begun to focus more on directly assaulting Pokrovsk than the areas to the south and are making some headway.
Russian forces close to the southern outskirts of the city.
Summary —
The Pokrovsk battle analysis is insightful and as the author notes, may give the term “pyrrhic victory” a whole new level of definition. The shear scope of losses is staggering given the limited amount of terrain seized.
Reported Russian losses overall appear to be on a downward trend, suggesting that the forces are being depleted and are seeing limited action. Also combined with the worsening weather and soil conditions making cross country (and even dirt roads) very difficult to cross.
Looks like Ukraine is restarting the deep war on Russian targets again. Absent now for weeks have been deep strikes using US and British/French weapons.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel announces the wind down of operations to destroy equipment and munitions of Assad’s army to prevent them from falling into the hands of elements hostile toward Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
This morning, four rockets were launched from the central Gaza Strip toward southern Israel.
According to the IDF, two were intercepted by air defenses, while the other two landed in open areas, causing no injuries.
In response, the IDF has ordered an evacuation from the area where the rockets were fired.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
There are rumors that some of the various rebel elements in Syria have been smuggling arms and munitions to Lebanon for a high price.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Earlier today, the Houthis claimed that they had attacked three U.S. warships. CENTCOM has now confirmed that while transiting the Gulf of Aden, two U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, the USS O’Kane (DDG 77) and the USS Stockdale (DDG 106), detected and shot down a number of Houthi projectiles and drones during two separate engagements. The most recent one, which took place in the last 24 hours, involved the downing of “multiple”one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) and one anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). During another engagement, which took place earlier between the 30th of November and the 1st of December, “the destroyers successfully defeated an Iran-backed Houthi attack.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
After a tornado of activity over the past few weeks, things have gotten unusually quiet in Israel and its defensive fight with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. The shockwave of the overthrow of Assad still driving geopolitics of the region.
Though mouthing words to Israel of no desire to expand their operations against Israel, various subgroups of the rebel forces are threatening to go after Israel, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan. However, the wrath is currently focused on Hezbollah, Iran and any element / clan that supported Assad. Once final power and control has been consolidated, the attention may well shift towards Israel.
Where will the ceasefire go in Lebanon and will anti-Hezbollah elements take advantage of the their double defeat, first by Israel and second by the Syrian rebels?
Will Iran duck down and go hard to develop the bomb?
Still a lot of uncertainty in the region that will have to be faced in the coming months.
Iran –
Biden released 10 billion in sanctioned money to Iran.
Khamenei in a speech tries to pin the rebel win on support from israel.
Syria -
Syria’s new leader states that they are not interested in engaging in any new wars, saying that their primary issue lies with Iran and Hezbollah.
Fighting has largely settled down across Syria. Exception being in the Deir Ezzor desert region in eastern Syria. Fighting there is reported between the new govt (rebels) and Kurdish SDF militia
In N Syria, SDF fighters are engaged in heavy clashes with Turkish-backed forces near the Qaraqozaq Bridge, Kobani, and Tishrin Dam — Mazloum Abdi
Social media is being flooded with videos of mass murders and ethnic cleansing as rebel associated groups go after those believed to have supported Assad. The recently emptied Assad prisons are rapidly refilling with former supporters.
Israel has wrapped up its bombing campaign to destroy the equipment and munitions of Assad’s army. Reportedly over 350 airstrikes in a 48 hour period with Syria’s navy sunk, and land assets left in smoldering ruins.
OBSERVATION - Assad’s hell-hole prisons just emptied out are now being refilled with new victims - of the new Rebel Govt. Things won’t change.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the HTS leader spoke of avoiding the mass executions and ethnic / religious cleansing as the fight was on going, but now is not stopping the widespread gruesome paybacks. Remember, HTS has its roots in ISIS and AQ, and that level of radical islam cannot remain pacified for any extended period.
Misc of Note –
Drones, drones and more drones. New Jersey has been the epicenter of reports of a plethora of ‘drone’ sightings. Some report them being the size of a car. Other reports have them flying over sensitive facilities like military bases and critical govt locations. Multiple shape and configuration also noted. Even though considered to be ‘drones’ none have been captured by authorities, even though some efforts by local police helicopters have been attempted.
Who is behind this and what are their goals and motivations?
I see a couple of options right off the top.
1 Adults playing ‘games’ by sending these up and getting attention. Initial drones set out a flurry of copy cat events and now there is an ‘underground’ competition among a sector of drone operators for coverage.
2 Covert surveillance by hostile agents of our key facilities.
Drone technology and parts are abundant here in the US. Technology has been adapted by some for versions of flying cars/motorcycles, etc. Computer controlled drone fleets make spectacular night time light show in places. If being done by enthusiasts, the fad could fade away, especially if authorities get serious about bring them down and identifying the owners. EW systems are out there and tested (see Ukraine for instance) that could be employed to down the drone.
Again IF the bulk of these sightings are based on ‘hobbyists’ the risk that hostile entities / nations may have theirs in the mix, using the whole flap (old UFO term) for cover of their operations.
Until we start getting serious about downing these drones, the scope and level of threat to the national security will not be known.
Also, millions of capsules of fentanyl have been found in Assad’s warehouses.
Does Blumenthal understand Big Tech is moving conservative? Having dinner with Trump?
Rolling into the weekend with global turbulence decreasing for the moment.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
If reports are true, it looks like the targeted killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York last week was politically motivated. The alleged shooter, Luigi Mangione, a former Ivy Leaguer from an affluent family, was reportedly caught with some kind of manifesto.
Even before we knew who the shooter was, however, the reaction from far too many leftists was to either justify, celebrate, or rationalize the shooting. There’s a real debate going on in some quarters of the progressive Left over whether slaying CEOs is a bad thing. And it’s unsurprising.
It should not be lost on us that there is a clear ideological continuum between people who rationalize the shooting of a CEO and those who rationalize the murder and rape of Jews by Palestinian terrorists and those who rationalize the burning down of cities for social justice.
If you’re convinced your opponents are abetting some (imaginary) “genocide,” you have a moral duty to stop them. And much of the left-wing violence we’ve seen is predicated on the idea that the enemy is irredeemably nefarious.
OBSERVATION - The near hero worship of this shooter by the left is dangerously crazy. As the article notes, it has been leftists who’ve displayed acts of violence over the past 4 plus years. Not the “white supremacists” boogyman the left has been portraying as the ‘threat’. This assassination may be the first in a potential series of lone wolf style attacks by those leftists who see the only solution to their losing fight against capitalism is to murder the opposition. Marxists/socialists have used this tactic abundantly in the past all around the world.
With leftist leaders like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) called the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson a “warning,” suggesting that such action would not be isolated if things did not change, nut jobs will continue to come out of the woodworks feeling ‘justified’ at the kill.
RELATED - Leftist “wanted”-style posters of health insurance leaders have been posted around New York City after the assassination of the UnitedHealthcare CEO and the arrest of suspect Luigi Magione.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1866903154635284793?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
The San Diego County Board of Supervisors just voted 3-1 to turn the county into a “super” sanctuary county by shielding illegals from deportation and preventing police from notifying ICE about dangerous illegals in custody.
San Diego County Sheriff says they will not follow the Board’s resolution to turn San Diego into a super sanctuary city to protect illegals. Under California law, Sheriffs being independently elected authorities are not subjected to county boards.
OBSERVATION - Can easily fit this in with Illegal Immigration. The split decision here will likely be reflected in other counties as well. In the event of a CW2 type scenario - who your sheriff is will be critical.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
A Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in November, compared with the 0.3% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Annually, it stood at 2.7%, in line with estimates.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, came in at 3.3% as expected.
OBSERVATION - Report has triggered renewed hope for another Fed rate decrease at their next meeting.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon maintaining its current force posture with about 900 troops dedicated to the defeat ISIS mission. “In our national security interest that ISIS can’t exploit the ongoing situation on the ground” per DepPentPressSec Sabrina Singh
***
The U.S. military on Tuesday successfully intercepted an air-launched midrange ballistic missile off the coast of Guam in a test flight that officials called a critical step in the defense of the U.S. Pacific territory against potential adversaries like China.
The Aegis air defense system on Guam used a new AN/TPY-6 radar to track the ballistic missile near Andersen Air Force Base. The Vertical Launching System fired a Standard Missile-3 Block IIA at the incoming target, which had been tracked since shortly after launch.
Tuesday’s mission was the first end-to-end tracking by the AN/TPY-6 radar during a live ballistic missile flight test, officials said
https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1866635883337879851?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) extended liability protections for producers of COVID-19 vaccines through 2029. HHS said the liability shield extension is necessary because of the “credible risk” that COVID-19 will remain a public health risk in the future. The liability shield also protects healthcare professionals who prescribed or administered COVID-19 vaccines. (FO)
OBSERVATION - This liability protection is what is slowing the legal blowback on the now demonstrated lethalities of the wuhan jab. This liability is voided if demonstrated the company knew of hazards of their drug and covered them up. Lawsuits are moving forward with that evidence. Unknown if Trump will be able to reverse this extension.
RELATED - Example of the drug company’s efforts to deceive and misrepresent the ‘safety’ of the mRNA jab. -
“Among all published autopsy reports relating to COVID-19 vaccination, we found that 73.9% of deaths were attributable to fatal COVID-19 vaccine injury syndromes. Our data suggest a high likelihood of a causal link between COVID-19 vaccination and death.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
FBI Director Christopher Wray accepts the inevitable and does not even put up a fight. He can’t. He announced today that he will be stepping down as the Federal Bureau of Investigation director following President-elect Donald J. Trump’s immense displeasure with how the agency has been run under his tenure. Wray said he’d be officially out the door in January (via NYT):
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/12/11/chris-wray-resigns-n2648912#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - This will not end Wray’s woes, as he will face intense scrutiny for his and the FBI’s actions over the past 4 years.
***
West Point has admitted to sharing blatantly false information about Pete Hegseth’s acceptance to the prestigious U.S. military academy. Hegseth himself provided evidence to undercut West Point’s claim, which the academy now asserts was made in “error.” This is another illustration of why we need a Defense Secretary who will clean house and enact reforms at the military academies and in the active duty forces.
https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2024/12/11/west-point-lied-about-hegseths-acceptance-n4935033
OBSERVATION - Folks, the military leadership at West Point is deeply corrupted. Going back to the 0bama era where leftists military instructors took the lead and we saw the beginnings of ‘woke’ in overweight and racists students, one graduate openly displaying his support for communism, etc passing thru its door and into the service. In my tenure on active duty, most younger ring knockers were almost unbearable, while field grade were generally very competent and service focused.
Fact that they tried to screw Hegseth shows the arrogance they have that they are untouchable. In the words of Mr. T - “I pity the fool” when they get their heels locked by the new boss.
Biden / Harris Watch –
US President Joe Biden has issued presidential pardons to 39 Americans convicted of non-violent crimes, and commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 other people.
The White House described it as the most acts of presidential clemency issued in a single day. It has not given the names of the people involved.
OBSERVATION - This is something like 5X the previous record set by 0bama. I haven’t seen specifics yet on who the recipients are.
Russia -
*****
Russia may launch another medium-range ballistic missile, “Oreshnik,” at Ukraine in the coming days, according to Bloomberg, citing a U.S. official.
Russian Ministry of Defense says missile strike with 6 ATACMS missile targeted military airfield in Taganrog of Rostov region, there are casualties among military personnel. Promises response
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine drones attacked a base of special operations forces in Grozny, Chechnya
Russian ammunition depot was blown up in Markyne of Donetsk region
Other Ukraine attacks being reported by Russian sources - Russian channels report a massive UAV attack in several regions of Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories such as Crimea.
One of the largest attacks on Crimea is taking place today!
Neptune missiles, Peklo and Palyanytsia drone missiles are being used.
These reports have not been verified.
Russian losses per 12/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1390 men
+6 tanks
+28 APVs
+5 artillery systems
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full control over Novoivanivka village in Kursk region of Russia
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces having penetrated south of Pokrovsk are attempting to swing to the north and appear to be close to the city’s southern outskirts.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Russia moving more military equipment from occupied Crimea towards Zaporizhzhia region posted on social media.
NOTE - There have been rumors for several months now of an offensive in this region.
Summary —
Ukraine pushing a new round of deep strikes using a mixture of home made and western supplied missiles and drones. Russia drags out its threat to use another “Oreshnik” IRBM. The only thing different in this system is that the MIRVs contain six submunitions that last time had no explosives. It was not a “rod of the gods” attack as some have speculated.
The fight for Pokrovsk seems to be coming to a head over the next week or so. Russian forces appear to be on the outskirts of the town and Russia continues to throw massive amounts of men and material into the meat grinder. Should Russia manage to seize the town, Ukraine supply lines will be impacted. However, any Russian exploitation of the capture is unlikely because the forces have been depleted and Ukraine has had the time to establish deeper defensive lines and Russia will be forced to transit more open terrain which in the mud season is not a good situation to be in.
The much rumored Russian offensive towards Zaporizhzhia seems to be gaining some credibility with the documented movement of men and equipment out of Crimea towards the front. The region is one where Ukraine’s poorly executed offensive gained the most terrain. Again, the big question is where is Russian gathering the men and equipment for this action? Are they counting on Ukraine having drawn down it forces there to support defenses elsewhere — and being able to gain the necessary force superiority needed to plough thru the defenses?
The Russia attack may server one purpose - secure more Ukraine terrain before any ceasefire.
I suspect that should Russia attempt a major offensive, the life expectancy of the Kerch Bridge will be measured in minutes. The bridge is the primary supply route to Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine. Ukraine has effectively destroyed most of the military ferry capability that Russia would rely upon if the bridge is lost. So Russia would have few options to support a large offensive.
Ukraine also has the missile capability to strike the bridge in spite of Russian ADA reinforcements around it. Russian response to that strategic strike would be intense.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas shows signs of capitulating to Israeli demands in Gaza and the hostages.
- More, limited IAF airstrikes in Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu’s office: The Israeli army will maintain control over the buffer zone in the Golan until a “force” emerges in Syria capable of ensuring adherence to the disengagement agreement and ensuring our security on the border
***
The World Central Kitchen (WCK) has fired 62 of its roughly 500 employees working in the Gaza Strip, after background checks done by the Israeli security service determined them to have links to Hamas and other terror groups.
NOTE - WCK and the UN raised a big stink about a year ago when a WCK truck was taken out by Israel because it was transporting Hamas fighters and equipment. Like the UNRWA, it has been deeply infiltrated by Hamas and associated other terrorists.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
According to the Wall Street Journal, Hamas has reportedly softened its stance on allowing Israeli military presence in Gaza post-conflict, presenting a list of hostages they are willing to release as part of a prospective deal. This shift in position has sparked optimism for a significant advancement in the ongoing hostage release talks.
IDF destroyed a large Hamas underground complex in the Rafah area which also took down a large area of overlying buildings.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Underreported evidence of different factions fighting in Judea and Samaria in opposition to the PA. These rival sects are vying for leadership as the vacuum of the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah spreads.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
With things starting to stabilize in Syria, Hezbollah maintaining a low profile in Lebanon, Hamas capitulating on hostages, Israel is having to shift its priorities and efforts. High on some speculation by observers and analysts is the potential for a soon strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has gone to ground its nuclear efforts and does not want to give Israel a clear reason to attack. Iran has few options left to strike Israel. Its decades of efforts to prepare Hamas and Hezbollah to push it into the sea have failed epically with the resounding defeat of its proxy elements and any attempts at reconstituting now hindered by an Iranian / Hezbollah hostile new regime developing in Syria.
For the moment, things have calmed down in this region.
Iran –
Iranian Parliament Speaker: Assad’s fall causes disruption to the resistance, but it will adapt to new circumstances and become stronger Iranian Parliament Speaker: Killing Hezbollah leaders was harder on us than Assad’s fall, but the party became stronger
OBSERVATION - The cognitive dissonance is strong in Iran. Massive spin effort.
***
Britain, France and Germany have told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready - if necessary - to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
They will lose the ability to take such action on Oct. 18 next year when a 2015 UN resolution expires. The resolution enshrines Iran’s deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia and China that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.
OBSERVATION - Iran has threatened all kinds of retaliation for any “snap back”. Key here is that they want to avoid this at all costs for now as they have already been hurt and may well be trying to accelerate their nuke development clandestinely.
Syria -
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-Assad Syrian interim government. Jolani and HTS may find it difficult to subordinate other Syrian groups to the control of the HTS-controlled interim government. Some of these groups have previously fought against Jolani’s organization and may be reticent to see Jolani expand his influence.
The biggest challenger to Joleni is the Syrian National Army (SNA). Neither one can really be considered ‘good guys’
HTS, an ex-al-Qaeda faction, enforces brutal Islamic law, contrary to Joleni’s “moderate” sounding rhetoric so far.
The SNA? Known for targeting Christians with violence and torture.
Right now Joleni has the lead, but intersect conflict can breakout soon.
***
Israel has continued to hit residual military targets in Syria, though not a the pace of a few days ago. Overnight, Israeli targeted helicopter airport in Aqraba, southwest of Damascus. Also hit military sites belonging to the former Assad regime in Latakia and Tartous on the Syrian coast
***
Syria’s new govt says to suspend constitution, parliament for duration of three-month transition period — AFP
***
Syrian Ministry of Transport: We are coordinating with Lebanon and Jordan regarding the return of Syrians through border crossings
***
Russian Army evacuates Ayn Issa base north of Raqqa
JORDAN -
Jordanian King Abdullah II said in a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Syrians must put their country’s interests at the forefront of their priorities during the coming period. The Jordanian Royal Court stated that King Abdullah stressed during the call the importance of preserving Syria’s security, stability and institutions.
Misc of Note –
Drones continue to raise concerns over national security. The ‘inability’ or covert reluctance to down these objects harkens back to the Chinese balloon incident where the regime permitted the balloon to pass over critical strategic defense bases unopposed and didn’t shoot down until it was over the ocean and the furor of the citizenry and congress reached a crescendo.
This one fact is known - there are a lot of them - some 50 or more seen in some instances. Again, could be a ‘game’ by tech savvy individuals looking for a thrill or more dangerously, actions by hostile agents.
The probability of hostile agent grows -
California man arrested for spying with a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base
Yinpiao Zhou, 39, of Brentwood, CA, was arrested for flying a drone and taking photos over Vandenberg Space Force Base. - FBI