Rolling into the weekend with global turbulence decreasing for the moment.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
If reports are true, it looks like the targeted killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York last week was politically motivated. The alleged shooter, Luigi Mangione, a former Ivy Leaguer from an affluent family, was reportedly caught with some kind of manifesto.
Even before we knew who the shooter was, however, the reaction from far too many leftists was to either justify, celebrate, or rationalize the shooting. There’s a real debate going on in some quarters of the progressive Left over whether slaying CEOs is a bad thing. And it’s unsurprising.
It should not be lost on us that there is a clear ideological continuum between people who rationalize the shooting of a CEO and those who rationalize the murder and rape of Jews by Palestinian terrorists and those who rationalize the burning down of cities for social justice.
If you’re convinced your opponents are abetting some (imaginary) “genocide,” you have a moral duty to stop them. And much of the left-wing violence we’ve seen is predicated on the idea that the enemy is irredeemably nefarious.
OBSERVATION - The near hero worship of this shooter by the left is dangerously crazy. As the article notes, it has been leftists who’ve displayed acts of violence over the past 4 plus years. Not the “white supremacists” boogyman the left has been portraying as the ‘threat’. This assassination may be the first in a potential series of lone wolf style attacks by those leftists who see the only solution to their losing fight against capitalism is to murder the opposition. Marxists/socialists have used this tactic abundantly in the past all around the world.
With leftist leaders like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) called the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson a “warning,” suggesting that such action would not be isolated if things did not change, nut jobs will continue to come out of the woodworks feeling ‘justified’ at the kill.
RELATED - Leftist “wanted”-style posters of health insurance leaders have been posted around New York City after the assassination of the UnitedHealthcare CEO and the arrest of suspect Luigi Magione.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1866903154635284793?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
The San Diego County Board of Supervisors just voted 3-1 to turn the county into a “super” sanctuary county by shielding illegals from deportation and preventing police from notifying ICE about dangerous illegals in custody.
San Diego County Sheriff says they will not follow the Board’s resolution to turn San Diego into a super sanctuary city to protect illegals. Under California law, Sheriffs being independently elected authorities are not subjected to county boards.
OBSERVATION - Can easily fit this in with Illegal Immigration. The split decision here will likely be reflected in other counties as well. In the event of a CW2 type scenario - who your sheriff is will be critical.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
A Labor Department report showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in November, compared with the 0.3% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Annually, it stood at 2.7%, in line with estimates.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, came in at 3.3% as expected.
OBSERVATION - Report has triggered renewed hope for another Fed rate decrease at their next meeting.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pentagon maintaining its current force posture with about 900 troops dedicated to the defeat ISIS mission. “In our national security interest that ISIS can’t exploit the ongoing situation on the ground” per DepPentPressSec Sabrina Singh
***
The U.S. military on Tuesday successfully intercepted an air-launched midrange ballistic missile off the coast of Guam in a test flight that officials called a critical step in the defense of the U.S. Pacific territory against potential adversaries like China.
The Aegis air defense system on Guam used a new AN/TPY-6 radar to track the ballistic missile near Andersen Air Force Base. The Vertical Launching System fired a Standard Missile-3 Block IIA at the incoming target, which had been tracked since shortly after launch.
Tuesday’s mission was the first end-to-end tracking by the AN/TPY-6 radar during a live ballistic missile flight test, officials said
https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1866635883337879851?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) extended liability protections for producers of COVID-19 vaccines through 2029. HHS said the liability shield extension is necessary because of the “credible risk” that COVID-19 will remain a public health risk in the future. The liability shield also protects healthcare professionals who prescribed or administered COVID-19 vaccines. (FO)
OBSERVATION - This liability protection is what is slowing the legal blowback on the now demonstrated lethalities of the wuhan jab. This liability is voided if demonstrated the company knew of hazards of their drug and covered them up. Lawsuits are moving forward with that evidence. Unknown if Trump will be able to reverse this extension.
RELATED - Example of the drug company’s efforts to deceive and misrepresent the ‘safety’ of the mRNA jab. -
“Among all published autopsy reports relating to COVID-19 vaccination, we found that 73.9% of deaths were attributable to fatal COVID-19 vaccine injury syndromes. Our data suggest a high likelihood of a causal link between COVID-19 vaccination and death.”
POLITICAL FRONT –
FBI Director Christopher Wray accepts the inevitable and does not even put up a fight. He can’t. He announced today that he will be stepping down as the Federal Bureau of Investigation director following President-elect Donald J. Trump’s immense displeasure with how the agency has been run under his tenure. Wray said he’d be officially out the door in January (via NYT):
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/12/11/chris-wray-resigns-n2648912#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - This will not end Wray’s woes, as he will face intense scrutiny for his and the FBI’s actions over the past 4 years.
***
West Point has admitted to sharing blatantly false information about Pete Hegseth’s acceptance to the prestigious U.S. military academy. Hegseth himself provided evidence to undercut West Point’s claim, which the academy now asserts was made in “error.” This is another illustration of why we need a Defense Secretary who will clean house and enact reforms at the military academies and in the active duty forces.
https://pjmedia.com/catherinesalgado/2024/12/11/west-point-lied-about-hegseths-acceptance-n4935033
OBSERVATION - Folks, the military leadership at West Point is deeply corrupted. Going back to the 0bama era where leftists military instructors took the lead and we saw the beginnings of ‘woke’ in overweight and racists students, one graduate openly displaying his support for communism, etc passing thru its door and into the service. In my tenure on active duty, most younger ring knockers were almost unbearable, while field grade were generally very competent and service focused.
Fact that they tried to screw Hegseth shows the arrogance they have that they are untouchable. In the words of Mr. T - “I pity the fool” when they get their heels locked by the new boss.
Biden / Harris Watch –
US President Joe Biden has issued presidential pardons to 39 Americans convicted of non-violent crimes, and commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 other people.
The White House described it as the most acts of presidential clemency issued in a single day. It has not given the names of the people involved.
OBSERVATION - This is something like 5X the previous record set by 0bama. I haven’t seen specifics yet on who the recipients are.
Russia -
*****
Russia may launch another medium-range ballistic missile, “Oreshnik,” at Ukraine in the coming days, according to Bloomberg, citing a U.S. official.
Russian Ministry of Defense says missile strike with 6 ATACMS missile targeted military airfield in Taganrog of Rostov region, there are casualties among military personnel. Promises response
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine drones attacked a base of special operations forces in Grozny, Chechnya
Russian ammunition depot was blown up in Markyne of Donetsk region
Other Ukraine attacks being reported by Russian sources - Russian channels report a massive UAV attack in several regions of Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories such as Crimea.
One of the largest attacks on Crimea is taking place today!
Neptune missiles, Peklo and Palyanytsia drone missiles are being used.
These reports have not been verified.
Russian losses per 12/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1390 men
+6 tanks
+28 APVs
+5 artillery systems
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full control over Novoivanivka village in Kursk region of Russia
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces having penetrated south of Pokrovsk are attempting to swing to the north and appear to be close to the city’s southern outskirts.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Russia moving more military equipment from occupied Crimea towards Zaporizhzhia region posted on social media.
NOTE - There have been rumors for several months now of an offensive in this region.
Summary —
Ukraine pushing a new round of deep strikes using a mixture of home made and western supplied missiles and drones. Russia drags out its threat to use another “Oreshnik” IRBM. The only thing different in this system is that the MIRVs contain six submunitions that last time had no explosives. It was not a “rod of the gods” attack as some have speculated.
The fight for Pokrovsk seems to be coming to a head over the next week or so. Russian forces appear to be on the outskirts of the town and Russia continues to throw massive amounts of men and material into the meat grinder. Should Russia manage to seize the town, Ukraine supply lines will be impacted. However, any Russian exploitation of the capture is unlikely because the forces have been depleted and Ukraine has had the time to establish deeper defensive lines and Russia will be forced to transit more open terrain which in the mud season is not a good situation to be in.
The much rumored Russian offensive towards Zaporizhzhia seems to be gaining some credibility with the documented movement of men and equipment out of Crimea towards the front. The region is one where Ukraine’s poorly executed offensive gained the most terrain. Again, the big question is where is Russian gathering the men and equipment for this action? Are they counting on Ukraine having drawn down it forces there to support defenses elsewhere — and being able to gain the necessary force superiority needed to plough thru the defenses?
The Russia attack may server one purpose - secure more Ukraine terrain before any ceasefire.
I suspect that should Russia attempt a major offensive, the life expectancy of the Kerch Bridge will be measured in minutes. The bridge is the primary supply route to Russian forces in Crimea and southern Ukraine. Ukraine has effectively destroyed most of the military ferry capability that Russia would rely upon if the bridge is lost. So Russia would have few options to support a large offensive.
Ukraine also has the missile capability to strike the bridge in spite of Russian ADA reinforcements around it. Russian response to that strategic strike would be intense.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas shows signs of capitulating to Israeli demands in Gaza and the hostages.
- More, limited IAF airstrikes in Syria.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu’s office: The Israeli army will maintain control over the buffer zone in the Golan until a “force” emerges in Syria capable of ensuring adherence to the disengagement agreement and ensuring our security on the border
***
The World Central Kitchen (WCK) has fired 62 of its roughly 500 employees working in the Gaza Strip, after background checks done by the Israeli security service determined them to have links to Hamas and other terror groups.
NOTE - WCK and the UN raised a big stink about a year ago when a WCK truck was taken out by Israel because it was transporting Hamas fighters and equipment. Like the UNRWA, it has been deeply infiltrated by Hamas and associated other terrorists.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
According to the Wall Street Journal, Hamas has reportedly softened its stance on allowing Israeli military presence in Gaza post-conflict, presenting a list of hostages they are willing to release as part of a prospective deal. This shift in position has sparked optimism for a significant advancement in the ongoing hostage release talks.
IDF destroyed a large Hamas underground complex in the Rafah area which also took down a large area of overlying buildings.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Underreported evidence of different factions fighting in Judea and Samaria in opposition to the PA. These rival sects are vying for leadership as the vacuum of the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah spreads.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
With things starting to stabilize in Syria, Hezbollah maintaining a low profile in Lebanon, Hamas capitulating on hostages, Israel is having to shift its priorities and efforts. High on some speculation by observers and analysts is the potential for a soon strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has gone to ground its nuclear efforts and does not want to give Israel a clear reason to attack. Iran has few options left to strike Israel. Its decades of efforts to prepare Hamas and Hezbollah to push it into the sea have failed epically with the resounding defeat of its proxy elements and any attempts at reconstituting now hindered by an Iranian / Hezbollah hostile new regime developing in Syria.
For the moment, things have calmed down in this region.
Iran –
Iranian Parliament Speaker: Assad’s fall causes disruption to the resistance, but it will adapt to new circumstances and become stronger Iranian Parliament Speaker: Killing Hezbollah leaders was harder on us than Assad’s fall, but the party became stronger
OBSERVATION - The cognitive dissonance is strong in Iran. Massive spin effort.
***
Britain, France and Germany have told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready - if necessary - to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
They will lose the ability to take such action on Oct. 18 next year when a 2015 UN resolution expires. The resolution enshrines Iran’s deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia and China that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.
OBSERVATION - Iran has threatened all kinds of retaliation for any “snap back”. Key here is that they want to avoid this at all costs for now as they have already been hurt and may well be trying to accelerate their nuke development clandestinely.
Syria -
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani is attempting to consolidate HTS’s political and military control in a post-Assad Syrian interim government. Jolani and HTS may find it difficult to subordinate other Syrian groups to the control of the HTS-controlled interim government. Some of these groups have previously fought against Jolani’s organization and may be reticent to see Jolani expand his influence.
The biggest challenger to Joleni is the Syrian National Army (SNA). Neither one can really be considered ‘good guys’
HTS, an ex-al-Qaeda faction, enforces brutal Islamic law, contrary to Joleni’s “moderate” sounding rhetoric so far.
The SNA? Known for targeting Christians with violence and torture.
Right now Joleni has the lead, but intersect conflict can breakout soon.
***
Israel has continued to hit residual military targets in Syria, though not a the pace of a few days ago. Overnight, Israeli targeted helicopter airport in Aqraba, southwest of Damascus. Also hit military sites belonging to the former Assad regime in Latakia and Tartous on the Syrian coast
***
Syria’s new govt says to suspend constitution, parliament for duration of three-month transition period — AFP
***
Syrian Ministry of Transport: We are coordinating with Lebanon and Jordan regarding the return of Syrians through border crossings
***
Russian Army evacuates Ayn Issa base north of Raqqa
JORDAN -
Jordanian King Abdullah II said in a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Syrians must put their country’s interests at the forefront of their priorities during the coming period. The Jordanian Royal Court stated that King Abdullah stressed during the call the importance of preserving Syria’s security, stability and institutions.
Misc of Note –
Drones continue to raise concerns over national security. The ‘inability’ or covert reluctance to down these objects harkens back to the Chinese balloon incident where the regime permitted the balloon to pass over critical strategic defense bases unopposed and didn’t shoot down until it was over the ocean and the furor of the citizenry and congress reached a crescendo.
This one fact is known - there are a lot of them - some 50 or more seen in some instances. Again, could be a ‘game’ by tech savvy individuals looking for a thrill or more dangerously, actions by hostile agents.
The probability of hostile agent grows -
California man arrested for spying with a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base
Yinpiao Zhou, 39, of Brentwood, CA, was arrested for flying a drone and taking photos over Vandenberg Space Force Base. - FBI
Any chance Hamas sees Trump taking back the reigns of power could be influencing this change in outlook?
New threats brewing on the horizon as Trump closes in on Jan 20. The seemingly quiet is not what it seems.
Talking with my wife yesterday - this is not the same country we grew up in.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
So far, BLM has not gotten any traction with its call for protests/riot as a result of the Penny verdict. IMHO, in part because the individual threatened blacks and Penny was assisted by blacks. And they are sick and tired of all the crime and violence in the subway on a daily basis.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The IG report was released yesterday and found that the FBI had 26 confidential human sources at the Capitol on January 6, including four who entered the Capitol building and 13 who entered the “restricted area” around the Capitol, according to the DOJ Inspector General.
At least 17 committed offenses for which other J6er have been federally charges. No CHS was charged.
OBSERVATION - This places Wray and Garland having perjured themselves before congress in sworn testimony. This also corresponds to video evidence of these same govt agents encouraging violence and criminal actions. That they committed criminal acts as well has been suppressed. Many J6rs in prison and jails now have a valid defense of entrapment - especially the ones who just walked in and touched nothing.
This further validates the claims that the J6 was instigated by the deep state agents in the alphabet agencies in a effort to crush any resurgence of the Trump agenda or republican opposition.
It’s no coincidence that FBI Director Wray announced his resignation just prior to the release of the IG report exposing activities of FBI confidential human sources at the Capitol on Jan 6.
RELATED - A new Inspector General report shows that the U.S. Department of Justice reportedly spied on Kash Patel, who was recently selected as President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and other federal employees without notifying the courts.
According to Just the News, the Inspector General’s report, which was released on Tuesday, shows that the Department of Justice spied on two House members and 43 staff members and asked the courts to help hide the investigation. Tuesday’s report showed that the Department of Justice obtained the phone records of Patel, who worked as a staff member for the Republican-led House Intelligence Committee at the time of the investigation.
RELATED - There were scores of federal and local assets from not only the FBI at the protest and riot that day but plenty of other three-letter federal and local agencies. Metropolitan Police had active agents provocateur on the ground. DHS, ATF, and other Beltway three letter agencies were on site that day.
Further, the govt paid for known members of the “Proud Boys” to come and be part of the effort at the capitol, participating in efforts to rile the crowd into the actions that have resulted in so many being charged. Yet they were not charged for their criminal acts.
Before he died, the former U.S. Senate Sergeant at Arms called for an investigation of the “professional agitators” who started the “violent, coordinated” attack.
OBSERVATION - More documentation showing just how out of control the DoJ was under Garland. Clearly it has been weaponized and the fact that they tried to hide their efforts only points to the inherent criminality of their efforts.
FBI deep staters who participated in this are probably wetting their pants. Same for the DoJ when Bondi takes the helm. We cannot have crap like this and call ourselves a ‘free’ society - these are tactics of the communists and other tyrants.
***
NYC Mayor Eric Adams seems to have taken the red pill. Whipsnapping from being a typical liberal in the metro area, he has suddenly embraced the efforts to deport illegals, get tougher on crime (supported the not guilty verdict in the Penney trial) and now endorsing involuntary commitment of the mentally ill who are terrorizing NY commuters on a daily basis.
He also went on a rant over 500,000 children that cannot be accounted for in the illegal and CPS hands.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Buried in the thousands of commutes and pardons were Chinese spies and pedophiles who should have never seen the light to day. Only time when the money trail will start to appear.
Illegal Immigration –
The biden regime has been caught trying to sabotage Trump efforts to finish the border wall.
Videos obtained exclusively by The Daily Wire from a U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agent show unused sections of the wall being hauled away on the back of flatbed trucks from a section of the border just south of Tucson, a hotspot for illegal crossings during the Biden administration. The agent estimates that up to half a mile per day of unused border wall is being moved.
‘They are taking it from three stations: Nogales, Tucson, and Three Points,’ the border patrol agent, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told The Daily Wire. ‘The goal is to move all of it off the border before Christmas.’
OBSERVATION - Color me not surprised that they would attempt this.
China –
Chinese naval exercises continue south of Taiwan.
Russia -
*****
Russia trying to recoup / stabilize some of their losses in Syria - see Syria.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
After 3 nights of quiet, overnight, Russia launched a very large missile and drone attack against Ukraine, targeting primarily its energy infrastructure.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports
Shot down:
0/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles
1/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 KN-23 ballistic missile
80/86 Kalibr/Iskander-K/Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles
0/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
80/193 Shahed drones
Another 105 (!) Shahed drones were supressed by electronic warfare. Five returned to Russia, one to Belarus.
5 of Ukraine’s 9 operating nuclear reactor units have reduced power output due to renewed attacks on energy infrastructure
Russian Ministry of Defense: “On December 11, 2024, Ukraine launched a missile strike with six ATACMS missiles at a military airfield near Taganrog. In response, Russia carried out a massive precision strike on critical fuel and energy infrastructure in Ukraine, targeting facilities vital to the military-industrial complex. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the targets were hit successfully.”
Russian losses per 13/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1390 men
+5 tanks
+31 AFVs
+6 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the fight in this area, even though reported personnel losses suggest a slowing of the effort.
Summary —
Massive missile / drone attack overnight. Though Ukraine ADA took out many, enough got through to damage the power grid across the country. Some other observations suggest that Russia stockpiles of Shahed drones may be getting smaller. The fact that Russia stopped their daily attacks (ranging in the 60+ drones) for three days indicate that they had to stock up on drones for this attack (around 300). The claim this attack was in response to Ukraine using ATACMS in a recent strike, but evidence shows the planning was already in progress.
Ukraine’s power grid is already in tatters and will take multiple years (decades) to restore. It is uncertain if this will deter further Ukraine drone/missile strikes into Russia.
Reported Russian losses continue to be down, though still much higher than this past summer. Again, most likely due to poor field conditions, and depleted forces.
Some “discussion” on Ukraine losses. Some have claimed as many as 1 million dead, extrapolating from that another 2 million seriously wounded and out of action. With those losses, Ukraine should have collapsed. More conservative estimates are one fourth to one third that figure, which would be consistent to the tactical situation.
Belarus -
Belarus and Russia signed the Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the Union State. The document defines mutual allied obligations to ensure the defense of the countries.
During the past week, ≈88 Russian drones of the Shahed type flew into Belarus. Most of them subsequently flew to Ukraine. The destruction of the drones by units of the Belarusian Armed Forces was not reported.
On December 6, Lukashenka asked Putin to deploy the Oreshnik missile system in Belarus. According to Putin, the deployment of Oreshnik on the territory of Belarus is possible in the second half of 2025.
https://x.com/hajun_by/status/1867358804574191753?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Progress reported on hostage release and ceasefire in Gaza.
- IAF hit more targets in Syria
- IDF seized the Hermon range between Lebanon and Syria.
- Rumors of a soon Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: The peaks of Mount Hermon in Syria returned to Israeli control in a moving historical moment Netanyahu and I visited the Golan Heights and saw the peaks of Mount Hermon in Syria, which returned to our control after 51 years.
NOTE - Israel now physically controls the Hermon Range that forms the border between Syria and Lebanon.
***
Rumint. Israel is preparing for potential strikes against Iran nuclear facilities in the very near future -
The Israeli Air Force is intensifying preparations for potential strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, citing the weakening of Tehran’s proxies and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria as strategic opportunities, Times of Israel reported citing Israeli military officials.
Netanyahu spoke to the people of Iran, encouraging them and reiterating that Israel is not their enemy, but the enemy of the corrupt mullahs.
***
Some of the framework for a cease fire with Hama is coming out.
Reports indicated the deal is likely to proceed in stages, beginning under the Biden administration and continuing under Trump’s. The first phase is a humanitarian one and will involve the release of hostages in exchange for a seven-week cease-fire.
However, it remains unclear whether Hamas will agree to a smaller deal without ending the war. Contradictory reports have emerged, with some suggesting Hamas is willing to allow a limited Israeli presence in Gaza while others claim Israel has agreed to a temporary withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, though this remains unverified. Israeli assessments suggest a deal could be reached within two weeks.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hk2tti00njl
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Fighting between Hamas and IDF broke out overnight in the Gaza City area. IAF supported ground units with a number of air strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel hit a few Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon for ceasefire violations.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Now mostly covered under Syria, except where Hezbollah and Iran are involved.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The IAF remains uncertain whether three or four unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were launched by the Houthis toward Israel on Thursday morning. What is clear, however, is that the Houthis have increased their attempts to challenge Israel in recent days. One UAV was intercepted near Eilat, another was downed using soft defenses, and a third disappeared from radar and has yet to be located.
According to IDF assessments, the escalation of Houthi attacks is partly due to significant blows sustained by the “Axis of Evil.” The Houthis are attempting to exploit this weakness to assume a leading role in attacks against Israel. Israeli officials acknowledge that the situation cannot continue and are preparing for the possibility of a third significant strike against Houthi targets in Yemen.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More mop up by the IAF in Syria. However, on top of the charts are unconfirmed reports that Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear weapons program associated facilities. According to these reports, Israel’s destruction of Syria’s air defense capabilities has opened the door wide to a massive air attack. Seen with this were Netanyahu’s message to Iranians yesterday. It is generally known that president-elect Trump has given Israel the OK to hit Iran’s nuclear program if necessary. Fact is Trump is considering the same (see Iran below). Israel has a window of opportunity to strike given the events in Syria and the resulting chaos in the Iranian military losing both Hezbollah and their operations in Syria. Should Israel strike, Hezbollah no longer has the capability to mount any large supporting attack - leaving Iran to stand on its own.
As soon Israeli strike will also acknowledge the general opinion that Iran has made a decision to advance its uranium enrichment program in step with the bomb development. A nuke would be Iran’s only real deterrent as its ballistic missile threat has been minimized in addition to the loss of Hezbollah.
Houthi’s are also facing another round of Israeli wrath. They have stepped up their attacks, being the only element of the “Islamic Resistance “ that poses any real threat to Israel. Any attack by Israel could be used as a training exercise for an attack on Iran, testing many components Israel will need to use.
Brings me back to the potential Israeli attack on Iran. The last attack, Israel primarily used standoff weapons with only a few aircraft penetrating into Iranian air space. With Syrian and Iranian ADA down, Israel can have its air refueling tankers much closer to Iran, permitting deeper penetration by IAF jets carrying larger, bunker buster bombs to hit hardened targets that standoff weapons don’t have the punch to hit hard enough. A much more complex operation than last time, thus using a Houthi hit for training and preparation.
A wild card is the Iranian response. With a month before Trump retakes the helm, direct response by the US will be delayed and Trump cannot order the military to make preparations now. So if Israel hits, it will be because it sees the Iranian efforts to develop a bomb as being imminent and cannot wait until after Jan 20.
In Gaza, progress towards some sort of ceasefire and hostage release. Still likely that it will take some more weeks to iron out the details.
In Lebanon, some Israeli units are preparing to pull out under Lebanese and US military eyes.
Iran –
Ahead of his January 20 inauguration, President-elect Donald Trump is evaluating the possibility of preemptive strikes on Iran to stop its growing nuclear program, according to a Friday morning Wall Street Journal report.
According to the WSJ, this move would mark a significant change from previously established US policy on diplomacy and sanctions when dealing with Tehran.
The report outlines the Trump team’s evaluation of potential attacks on nuclear sites, indicating that members of the president-elect’s transition team are exploring this option.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-833297
Syria -
SDF commander-in-chief: We are ready for dialogue with Turkey. We hope Manbij ceasefire agreement will turn into a comprehensive one. We hope Manbij agreement will come into force by tomorrow. There should be no military forces in Manbij according to the ceasefire agreement
***
Russia is close to reaching an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to keep two bases in the country, two sources tell Bloomberg
NOTE - speculation that this agreement is only short term, not an agreement to maintain Russian presence on a long term basis.
***
Israeli air strikes target military sites at Mezzeh Military Airport and Mount Qasioun in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Israel also targeted air defenses in Wadi Hanna on the Syrian-Lebanese border and further north, former government military sites in Masyaf and Homs countryside
***
Representatives from six Druze communities in southern Syria have formally expressed their desire to be integrated into Israel, seeking a future under Israeli governance.
Turkey –
President Erdoğan, in his meeting with Anthony Blinken, noted that Turkey will take measures for its own national security against terrorist organizations such as PKK/PYD/YPG and ISIS operating in Syria.