Relatively low volume report today. Syria is calming down, Hamas and Hezbollah down, Russia slowing down, etc. Better enjoy the calm while it lasts
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Daniel Penny found not guilty of negligent homicide. His other charge of manslaughter was dismissed last week.
BLM New York calls for vengeance from black vigilantes after the acquittal of Daniel Penny in Manhattan.
“People wanna jump up and choke us and kill us for being loud? How about we do the same?”
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1866172878808314261?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
According to Fox News, there are threats to ‘burn down New York’
OBSERVATION - There was some disturbances outside of the court house yesterday. Mass protests have not developed yet, however, numerous cities are reporting to have been readying measures in the event Floyd style riots break out.
Russia -
*****
Russian warships have been forced to anchor off shore of Tartus Syria.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Rare calm night in Ukraine, no Shahed-type drones had been reported. Ukraine also reports Russia lost -
+1350 men
+5 tanks
+7 APVs
+3 artillery systems
Missile strikes were reported in Yenakiieve at a Russian ammo dump, occupied part of Donets region. Area is cordoned off and civilians being evacuated.
Though Russian casualties are down, they continue to press the attack in the Pokrovsk and other sectors.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 11 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Summary —
Seems weather condition are taking more and more control over Russia’s offensive in the east. The apparent slowdown in Russia’s actions are too soon to reflect the Syrian debacle.
More political maneuvering by both sides in anticipation of Trump’s actions to stop the fighting.
Europe / NATO General –
List of countries that announced they are freezing all Syrian asylum applications:
Germany, France, Italy , UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Czechia , Switzerland, Croatia and Greece
Sweden’s 2nd-largest party, the Sweden Democrats, announce that they want to overturn the residency rights to Syrians who have been granted asylum in Sweden and send them back to Syria after Assad’s fall.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF expands their presence in the Syrian buffer zone
——— GENERAL ——————————-
IAF forces have expanded their control in the buffer zone between Israel and Syria along the Golan Heights.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF struck several locations in central and N Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports of an Israeli army strike in Maroun al-Ras, southern Lebanon. This is the only reported action of any significance by Israel in Lebanon for the past 24+ hours.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Syria rebellion has really sucked a lot of the air out of Hezbollah and Iran’s fight against Israel. Overnight, only one airstrike occurred against hezbollah actions in Lebanon and no other infractions by Hezbollah.
As Israel steadies its status on the border of Syria, attention will grow towards Hezbollah and Hamas again.
Syria -
The Israeli Navy destroyed multiple Syrian navy vessels armed with sea-to-sea missiles at Minet el-Beida and Latakia, ensuring advanced weaponry doesn’t reach hostile forces. The Air Force has also conducted more than 300 strikes in Syria post-Assad regime collapse.
Israeli Army Radio, citing a senior security source: We destroyed the capabilities of the Syrian army in the largest air operation we have carried out in our history.
NOTE - Exceeding the massive operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
***
Some friction between elements of HTS coalition as protogovernental actions are underway.
The Islamic rebels who toppled Assad’s regime after taking over the major cities in Syria, including Damascus, is on video vowing to take Jerusalem next and to free all the Gazans.
Reports are Syrian rebels are conduction genocide / ethnic cleansing of opposing sects across Syria and particularly in costal areas where Assad’s sect of Islam resides.
OVERALL OBSERVATION -
Israel has destroyed nearly all of the remaining equipment and munitions of both the Assad regime as well as Iran/Hezbollah stockpiles and facilities. This was made easy in that these targets were not hardened nor hidden under civilian areas. I expect that Israel will continue to hit some locations if BDA comes back indicating that additional hits are necessary.
Most serious action is in the north and northeastern areas of the country where Turkish backed rebels are engaging Kurdish troops. Israel has reached out to the Kurds and have begun an effort to shore them up as allies. IAF may also be called upon in some instances.
Genocide / ethnic cleansing is expected as those elements who’ve supported Assad face rebel retribution.
All evidence is that Russia is/has abandoned its bases in Syria. There are rumblings from nonofficial sources that they are trying to negotiate some sort of an agreement where they can stay, but I find this unlikely. Russia has spilled too much rebel blood, and they have Turkey as their benefactor.
Many executions going on in Syria right now according to Amir.
“Pro-Iranian channels reports on mass executions and cleansing of ethnic & religious minorities by HTS and SNA rebels in Syria have started.”
“The rebels are preparing to publicly execute a former Syrian army officer in Hama City.
Barbaric executions are taking place all over Syria right now.”
Biden needs to add us to the list - NO MORE REFUGEES UNTIL TRUMP'S IN OFFICE. Biden's mucked up enough stuff...
World dynamics are in flux as the overthrow of Assad now sees a new norm developing. Israel’s fight against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran shaping in potential new directions and general reactions to the impending Trump administration beginning to come around.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Patrick Frey, Deputy District Attorney at Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office, has suggested the American people will have to rise up and kill President-elect Donald J. Trump if he becomes a dictator. “If Donald Trump is going to become a tyrant, the American people will have to examine the option of dealing with him the way a citizenry deals with a tyrant.” Thomas Jefferson famously wrote that the “tree of liberty must be refreshed” with “the blood of patriots and tyrants” periodically.
Frey, who goes by ‘Patterico’ online, made the comments on Bluesky, a bolthole for former X (formerly Twitter) users fleeing the platform since Elon Musk purchased it and endorsed Trump’s third bid for the presidency.
OBSERVATION - He should be forced to step down immediately. Yet this continues to show the disregard and absolute hatred towards Trump that has driven 3 assassination attempts.
***
BLM and leftist radicals marched through Manhattan to protest the acquittal of Daniel Penny.
OBSERVATION - No significant arrests or violence from the march. Loud voices.
***
The Department of Justice and FBI provided only “limited cooperation” to the House task force investigating assassination attempts against President-elect Donald Trump, according to the task force’s final report.
https://thelibertydaily.com/trump-assassination-attempt-task-force-releases-final-report/
OBSERVATION - Refusal to cooperate fully but instead hid behind weasel words and investigation sensitivities is a non-starter. Display open disregard for the balance of powers.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
On Tuesday, the price for Arabica beans, which account for most global production, topped $3.44 a pound (0.45kg), having jumped more than 80% this year. The cost of Robusta beans, meanwhile, hit a fresh high in September.
It comes as coffee traders expect crops to shrink after the world’s two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, were hit by bad weather and the drink’s popularity continues to grow.
OBSERVATION - Oh great, now a country with grumpy coffee drinkers.
***
America’s beef cow inventory has steadily declined over the last half-decade, reaching 64-year lows and signaling a deepening crisis across the cattle industry. As the cattle crisis worsens, consumers should brace for higher ground beef prices.
The shrinking beef supply has pushed the nation’s herd size to its smallest level since 1961. With severe droughts, high interest rates, costly feed prices, sliding farm income, surging farm debt, and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, struggling ranchers have been culling heifers, preventing any meaningful recovery in the number of calves necessary to expand the nation’s herds.
OBSERVATION - One of the agricultural sectors targeted by the Globalists under their global warming scam and eat the bugs plan, it has been hard for ranchers to build up their herds to pre-wuhan conditions. Not only the constant war against the elements, increased govt actions have increased the hurt.
My recommendation - checkout purchasing a half of whole beef. My local meat market goes to local ranchers for their supply. The half I bought (about 380 processed and packaged pounds) ran about $4.60/lb - less than hamburger in the store. Drawbacks are that you have a sizable upfront cost and you need freezer space.
Final agricultural note. Farm related products will continue to cost more. Poultry keeps having bird flu decimation. Processing plants going off line. Produce and grains remain high due to high costs for parts, fuel, labor, additives, etc. Global trade also stressing the markets, keeping prices higher as well.
POLITICAL FRONT –
In a statement posted today on X, MRC founder and president Brent Bozell cautioned Congress not to pass the new version of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) introduced by Sen.Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). Bozell instead advised Congress to either enact the House of Representatives’ version of KOSA, which protects First Amendment liberties, or to wait to reform Big Tech until the new year.
Bozell explained: “Months ago, the House Energy & Commerce Committee passed a version of the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) that both protected First Amendment rights and ensured the safety of our children. … Disturbingly, instead of embracing the House’s leadership on this issue, Senator Richard Blumenthal released an entirely different version of KOSA that acts as a Trojan horse for the left’s agenda.”
A Senate version of KOSA, authored by Blumenthal and endorsed by President Joe Biden, passed the U.S. Senate in July. This legislation would have made tech companies liable if the content shared on their platforms caused a child “psychological distress” or “anxiety.” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) slammed the proposed statute as “very problematic” and indicated he would not bring it for a vote.
Blumenthal released yet another version of KOSA this weekend, which he claimed would assuage First Amendment concerns. While this updated version adopted some of the House’s language barring “viewpoint” discrimination, it still used vague and amorphous phrases that could incentivize more Big Tech censorship.
OBSERVATION - Lets be very clear about this. If the content shared on their platforms caused a child “psychological distress” or “anxiety.” the company can be liable. Yet these same democrats rejoice when children are forced into explicit ‘trans’ strip tease acts in public schools and libraries as well as forcing gender change on them. Double standard to the max.
The other key point - censorship of social media. The bar is exceptionally low in this bill as to what defines “psychological distress” or “anxiety” that almost anything can be claimed.
Illegal Immigration –
More liberal counties and cities passing resolutions to refuse to assist ICE in any manner in the identification and arrest of illegals in their jurisdictions. IMHO they are trying old tactics that Trump’s team have had 4 years to evaluate and identify the means to defeat it. They also have the guy ready to take over and execute those means. It may even come down to city/county leaders being arrested under federal charges for aiding and abetting criminal activity.
China –
The Chinese navy deployed a group of 60 ships and 30 coast guard vessels off the coast of Taiwan this week in what appears to be their largest show of force since 1996, according to the Wall Street Journal Tuesday.
Taiwanese authorities have also counted 47 warplanes and 21 vessels around the island in the last 24 hours, according to the WSJ. Officials said the purpose of the maneuvers is to prepare for a potential blockade of the island in the event of war.
https://thelibertydaily.com/while-sleepy-joe-quietly-disappears-world-stage-china/
OBSERVATION - Ive noted this before, the pattern of increasing the size and scale of war games like this is typical for situations where a country like China will use one of these ‘exercises’ to kick off the actual blockade of Taiwan. Egypt and Syria used the same tactic leading up to the 1973 Yon Kippor war. What these exercises do as well is to tip off military planners as to what the deployments and forces to expect when a conflict actually kicks off.
North/South Korea –
S Korean govt is still in turmoil following the aborted martial law attempt.
Russia -
*****
Russia still holding tight hopes that they will be able to reoccupy their military bases in Syria. All the while, it is still being reported that they are removing equipment from many of these bases, so far un-accosted by rebel forces. Analysts do not see Russia being allowed back in the near term, but may be playing for a longer term game.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian losses per 11/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1400 men
+2 tanks
+20 AFVs
+3 artillery systems
General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine claims attack at fuel distribution station at Druzhba pipeline in Bryansk region of Russia. Station used by Russian military to get fuel for their equipment
Rostov region: Military enterprise was reportedly attacked in Taganrog with missiles. Possibly Beriyev aviation research complex
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian counter attacks continue, with little to no effect.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Very detailed article concerning this zone of the Russian offensive starting at the link below.
https://x.com/volodymyr_d_/status/1866583867798487225?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Just some snippets -
In October 2023, Russia defined the offensive on Pokrovsk as the main axis of its offensive campaign.
Russia’s total losses for 13 months of fighting in the Pokrovsk direction amount to about 150,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is more than Russia’s losses in the battles for Bakhmut (100,000).
Additionally, more than 580+ tanks, 1220+ APCs and 90+ pieces of artillery have been lost. More tanks lost than during the WW2 battle at Stalingrad.
The number of Russian casualties in the Battle of Pokrovsk is close to the number of the Western Military District as of 2022, which included three armies: the 1st Tank Army, the 6th and 20th General Armies.
***
Russian forces have begun to focus more on directly assaulting Pokrovsk than the areas to the south and are making some headway.
Russian forces close to the southern outskirts of the city.
Summary —
The Pokrovsk battle analysis is insightful and as the author notes, may give the term “pyrrhic victory” a whole new level of definition. The shear scope of losses is staggering given the limited amount of terrain seized.
Reported Russian losses overall appear to be on a downward trend, suggesting that the forces are being depleted and are seeing limited action. Also combined with the worsening weather and soil conditions making cross country (and even dirt roads) very difficult to cross.
Looks like Ukraine is restarting the deep war on Russian targets again. Absent now for weeks have been deep strikes using US and British/French weapons.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel announces the wind down of operations to destroy equipment and munitions of Assad’s army to prevent them from falling into the hands of elements hostile toward Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
This morning, four rockets were launched from the central Gaza Strip toward southern Israel.
According to the IDF, two were intercepted by air defenses, while the other two landed in open areas, causing no injuries.
In response, the IDF has ordered an evacuation from the area where the rockets were fired.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
There are rumors that some of the various rebel elements in Syria have been smuggling arms and munitions to Lebanon for a high price.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Earlier today, the Houthis claimed that they had attacked three U.S. warships. CENTCOM has now confirmed that while transiting the Gulf of Aden, two U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, the USS O’Kane (DDG 77) and the USS Stockdale (DDG 106), detected and shot down a number of Houthi projectiles and drones during two separate engagements. The most recent one, which took place in the last 24 hours, involved the downing of “multiple”one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) and one anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM). During another engagement, which took place earlier between the 30th of November and the 1st of December, “the destroyers successfully defeated an Iran-backed Houthi attack.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
After a tornado of activity over the past few weeks, things have gotten unusually quiet in Israel and its defensive fight with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. The shockwave of the overthrow of Assad still driving geopolitics of the region.
Though mouthing words to Israel of no desire to expand their operations against Israel, various subgroups of the rebel forces are threatening to go after Israel, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan. However, the wrath is currently focused on Hezbollah, Iran and any element / clan that supported Assad. Once final power and control has been consolidated, the attention may well shift towards Israel.
Where will the ceasefire go in Lebanon and will anti-Hezbollah elements take advantage of the their double defeat, first by Israel and second by the Syrian rebels?
Will Iran duck down and go hard to develop the bomb?
Still a lot of uncertainty in the region that will have to be faced in the coming months.
Iran –
Biden released 10 billion in sanctioned money to Iran.
Khamenei in a speech tries to pin the rebel win on support from israel.
Syria -
Syria’s new leader states that they are not interested in engaging in any new wars, saying that their primary issue lies with Iran and Hezbollah.
Fighting has largely settled down across Syria. Exception being in the Deir Ezzor desert region in eastern Syria. Fighting there is reported between the new govt (rebels) and Kurdish SDF militia
In N Syria, SDF fighters are engaged in heavy clashes with Turkish-backed forces near the Qaraqozaq Bridge, Kobani, and Tishrin Dam — Mazloum Abdi
Social media is being flooded with videos of mass murders and ethnic cleansing as rebel associated groups go after those believed to have supported Assad. The recently emptied Assad prisons are rapidly refilling with former supporters.
Israel has wrapped up its bombing campaign to destroy the equipment and munitions of Assad’s army. Reportedly over 350 airstrikes in a 48 hour period with Syria’s navy sunk, and land assets left in smoldering ruins.
OBSERVATION - Assad’s hell-hole prisons just emptied out are now being refilled with new victims - of the new Rebel Govt. Things won’t change.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the HTS leader spoke of avoiding the mass executions and ethnic / religious cleansing as the fight was on going, but now is not stopping the widespread gruesome paybacks. Remember, HTS has its roots in ISIS and AQ, and that level of radical islam cannot remain pacified for any extended period.
Misc of Note –
Drones, drones and more drones. New Jersey has been the epicenter of reports of a plethora of ‘drone’ sightings. Some report them being the size of a car. Other reports have them flying over sensitive facilities like military bases and critical govt locations. Multiple shape and configuration also noted. Even though considered to be ‘drones’ none have been captured by authorities, even though some efforts by local police helicopters have been attempted.
Who is behind this and what are their goals and motivations?
I see a couple of options right off the top.
1 Adults playing ‘games’ by sending these up and getting attention. Initial drones set out a flurry of copy cat events and now there is an ‘underground’ competition among a sector of drone operators for coverage.
2 Covert surveillance by hostile agents of our key facilities.
Drone technology and parts are abundant here in the US. Technology has been adapted by some for versions of flying cars/motorcycles, etc. Computer controlled drone fleets make spectacular night time light show in places. If being done by enthusiasts, the fad could fade away, especially if authorities get serious about bring them down and identifying the owners. EW systems are out there and tested (see Ukraine for instance) that could be employed to down the drone.
Again IF the bulk of these sightings are based on ‘hobbyists’ the risk that hostile entities / nations may have theirs in the mix, using the whole flap (old UFO term) for cover of their operations.
Until we start getting serious about downing these drones, the scope and level of threat to the national security will not be known.