Syria has fallen to Sunni rebels and the power structure of the region has titanically been altered.
What more will happen in the next few weeks before the end of the year.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Black Lives Matter has threatened widespread riots in major U.S. cities if Daniel Penny is acquitted.
OBSERVATION - BLM has been issuing other threats of rioting in other cases / incidents as well this past week. This sudden revival in the desire for violence may largely be due to the Trump election and the BLM handlers trying to push the blacks into violent action as a result. Of the ‘causes’ BLM is claiming, the Penny case is the highest profile and most likely to generate some degree of violence should he be fully acquitted or case tossed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump set the world leaders in their place over the weekend when he arrived in Paris for a celebration of the reopening of the Cathedral of Notre Dame.
Russia -
*****
Moscow is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups amid the escalation in that country, - the Russian Foreign Ministry said
Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported. “There is currently no serious threat to the security of Russian military bases in Syria.”
Russian Foreign Ministry: Assad left the presidency and Syria after negotiations with a number of participants in the Syrian conflict, gave orders to peacefully transfer power, Russia did not participate in the negotiations
OBSERVATIONS - Russia has lost probably hundreds of billions of dollars equivalent worth of equipment and facilities in Syria. The critical ports on the Med Sea have put them in a strategic bind, having relied upon them to project power in the region. With the Black Sea Fleet bottled up by Turkey, Russia will have no significant bases in the region and will find its naval forces primarily bottled up in the Baltic region. The loss of strategic airfields in Syria will also impact Russian operations in Africa, cutting off a link of the logistical chain.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight
Russia continues to press the ground assault all along the eastern front.
SecDef Austin, announcing today’s Ukraine aid, said that Russia has suffered at least 700,000 casualties and squandered more than $200 billion since its invasion of Ukraine
Summary —
Pretty much the standard daily combat. Russia continues to press the attack all along the eastern front.
Impacts from the Russian losses associated with the debacle in Syria to the Ukraine war are uncertain at this time. The rushed withdrawals of Russian forces may permit some additional key elements to be redeployed to the Ukraine war zone, like ADA assets. Russia had no real ground forces other than those needed to support its air force elements. Russian troops did not participate in any significant manner in ground fighting. Residual elements of Wagner did engage on the ground, but those elements are very depleted following the Wagner uprising a year ago.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF have pushed into the UN buffer zone in Syria and establishing defensive positions.
- Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon now in jeopardy due to the overthrow of Assad’s govt by Iranian/Hezbollah hostile rebel forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports of an Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah militants fleeing the rebel offensive in Syria, via the Al-Qusayr border crossing into Northern Lebanon.
NOTE - .This is not talking place in Lebanon, so no breach of ceasefire.
See Iran below on impacts from the Syrian rebellion
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Increased military preparation in the Golan Heights area:
Following the developments in Syria - the IDF’s Northern Command launched an attack in the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, in order to strengthen the defense of the border. The community of Quneitra has been captured and IDF is pushing deeper, reaching Jisr Raqqad in the Quneitra countryside,
The IDF deploys roadblocks along the Golan Heights. Traffic in the area will be restricted as needed.
All the agricultural areas adjacent to the Syrian border have been declared a closed military area, and the entry of farmers there will be restricted.
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1865609234379067617?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
IDF artillery and airstrikes has been heavily shelling the city. With one target being the former barracks used by the IRGC in Quneitra
Division 98 was called up to the Syrian border with the paratrooper brigade and the commando brigade.
***
According to Axios’ Barak Ravid; Israel has sent messages to several of the rebel groups operating in Syria over the past few days, including Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), telling them that if they approach the Golan Heights in any way that violates the Israel-Syria truce agreement, then they will face military action.
***
Israel’s Air Force is attacking weapons depots in the Damascus area.
The report is about an attack on strategic weapons stockpiles that must not come into the hands of the rebels.
Another IDF strike on the Khalkhalah air force base that belonged to the Assad regime south of Damascus
IDF: Moments ago, (Yesterday) armed assailants launched an attack on a UN outpost in Syria’s Khedr region. on the Golan border
The IDF has stepped in to support UN forces in countering the assault.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Overnight, IAF intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Yemen to Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
I’m going deeper into the effects of the Syrian over throw of Assad under Iran below. In short - Iran and Hezbollah have found themselves to be in a very difficult situation. Iran is no longer capable of resupplying / rearming Hezbollah.
Will anti-Hezbollah elements within Lebanon take the cue and go after Hezbollah and the grip it has had on the nation for over a decade now?
Again, the pause in Gaza and Lebanon action has freed up Israel to respond to the rebel action in Syria.
And in Gaza, Hamas now facing the greater reality that neither Hezbollah or Iran or any other arab nation for that matter, is going to come to their aid any time soon (measured in years). Hamas played their cards and got trumped. Remaining question is just how badly do the want to continue to be exterminated and does their will to live exceed their hate for Israel.
Iran –
Iranian opposition channels: “After Syria, it’s time for a revolution inside Iran.”
Reports indicate that by midweek, the Iranian government is (was) in a state of complete panic over the rebel advance. An internal IRGC document reportedly describes the situation as “strange and unbelievable,” adding that it feels as though Iran has “accepted Assad’s fall and lost the will to resist it.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1865538901751783669?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Iran’s MFA spokesman says diplomats in the Iranian embassy in Syria left the mission “minutes before” it was raided
***
Iran has spent some estimate over 50 billion dollars in constructing the facilities necessary to arm and prepare Hezbollah for an invasion of Israel. In the recent war, Israel has destroyed a lot of those facilities. Now anti-Hezbollah rebel forces are cleaning up the remains.
Hezbollah has had a large force in Syria supporting Assad and has committed a number of atrocities against Syrians, primarily the sunni Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) related elements.
Now, with the ceasefire Iran/Hezbollah had intended using the time to rearm its Lebanese forces. That has now been destroyed.
Homs, the corridor used by Iran to bring weapons to Hezbollah, is no longer available. The Hezbollah supply chain from Iran by air and ground is now blocked and denied to them. Hezbollah lost a lot of fighters in Syria over the past couple weeks, as they were pretty much the only forces that stood and fought HTS forces.
Iran’s only remaining sword against Israel was completely demolished in less than two weeks. Hezbollah is essentially cut off from support.
Trump taking over in less than a month and a half.
Iran is in a very weak position and is now suspect able to an internal uprising. Syria was a very key component of its regional goals of dominance.
Syria -
The Assad regime is no more. Overnight, rebel forces not only captured Homs, but Damascus as well. Syrian army elements folded quickly and with out much of a fight, if any.
Assad if believed to have left the country, but where is unknown as he has not been seen or heard from in over a day. Some rumors that he was on an IL-76T that may have been shot down. The rebels say they shot down Assad’s plane, but this isn’t confirmed.
Unlike the capture of Aleppo, Hama and Homs, locals broke into looting across Damascus. Rebel elements reportedly are attempting to bring things back under control.
The overthrow of Assad took less than two weeks and has sent shockwaves through the region.
Syrian rebel commander from the Free Syrian Army:
“We are open to friendship with everyone in the region - including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a great deal. Now we are taking care of the rest.” - Times of Israel
The rebel alliance contained many factions. The lead group is known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It is an al-Qaeda linked terror group and was originally the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda co-founded by the former leader of ISIS. It is Sunni, which makes it an enemy of the Shia Iran (and its proxies). It received a lot of backing from Turkey and the rapid success of the rebellion is indicative of that aid.
Two other major factions are the Druze located in S Lebanon araa and Suwayda regions of Syria. The other are Kurds in the eastern half of the country. Currently, fighting is ongoing between the Kurds and the Turkish supported rebel elements. Turkey has had a bone to pick with the Kurds for a long time now.
Besides Israeli airstrikes, reports that Russia is bombing weapons storage facilities of Russian & Iranian weapons in Syria
***
Coastal cities are what’s left under any kind of regime control. With the coastal cities fortified by one side with Alawiyin mountains, this will be the hardest part for the Rebels to advance. Reports this morning that Rebel force have entered the Coastal City of Latakia in Northwestern Syria. This town is just north of Russia’s major airbase at Latakia.
However, reports continue of Russia abandoning airfields and naval bases in the region.
The coastal cities may remain under Russian control, at least for now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GeOhufWXkAAZWoN?format=jpg&name=small
FINAl OBSERVATIONS for today -
Many are picking their jaws over the speed and success of the rebel forces. The next weeks and months will shape the new realities in the region. Will Syria essential break up into two or three smaller countries? Will the rebels maintain peace in regards to Israel? Will the sunni linkage to Saudi Arabia and SA’s movement towards an agreement under the proposed Abrahamic Accords help keep Syria neutral towards Israel?
Misc of Note –
Some final (for today at least) muddled meandering thoughts on what hit the middle east the past year and cumulated in the last couple weeks
Iran’s regional strategy unraveled in a dramatic and cataclysmic manner. Things fell like dominoes beginning with the Hamas facing the brunt of Israel’s wrath for the Oct 7, 2023 terror attack and over the course of 2024 it has been reduced to rubble, like much of Gaza. It is now known that Hamas was supposed to have conducted this as a supporting attack to Hezbollah’s action but prematurely kick it off in order to gain the glory (in reality, Hamas and Hezbollah weren’t ever on really good terms). Israel took unprecedented actions against Hamas in Gaza - going into full honey badger mode and stripping away the common hiding behind civilian tactics of Hamas.
WIth Hamas pretty well decimated, Israel “called” on Hezbollah, intiated full fury attacks on strongholds in Beirut and across S Lebanon, cumulating in the invasion of S Lebanon. Hezbollah lost all its leadership, something like 80 % of its rocket / missile stockpiles and forces faced decimation under the continued Israeli assault - to the extent that Hezbollah called for a ceasefire (With Iran’s blessing and urging!).
Meanwhile, TWO massive ballistic missile barrages (nearly 200 ballastic missiles each) by Iran against Israel were grossly ineffective. Those missiles that managed to get past ABM defenses hit areas that caused little to no damage or significant deaths.
Israel twice hit Iran, with precision and no losses, leaving Iran virtually defenseless from air attacks. The Israeli airstrikes were unprecedented.
This ceasefire was just a cover to permit Iran to rearm Hezbollah, then the unthinkable happened - a massive rebel assault coming out of the beleaguered nothern provinces of Syria of anti-Assad and Anti-Hezbollah/Iran forces swept southward with virtually no resistance and resulted in the Assad regime being eliminated. With the assault, Hezbollah/Iranian facilities and ability to rearm Hezbollah in Lebanon disappeared. ALL supply routes used by Iran have been cancelled, and Hezbollah in Syria took severe casualties.
The action over the past year go beyond coincidence but IMHO displays the actions of God to direct retribution on those who sought to destroy Israel.
- The Hamas/Hezbollah assault was thwarted by Hamas and triggered the falling of the line of dominos
- Hezbollah’s destruction totally unforeseen
- Iran’s missile threat just wasn’t there and their vulnerability to more conventional IAF power projection overwhelming
- Rebels stripping Irans resupply ability to Hezbollah.
In the Bible, God time and again uses nations to execute His judgements and will. He forms and shapes the situations for protecting His people - the Nation of Israel and more specifically - those who are descended from Abraham.
Think about it - too many coincidences in a chain of events to ignore.
Thanks
The collapse of Israel’s enemies is a direct answer to prayer.
...God time and again uses nations to execute His judgements and will.He forms and shapes the situations for protecting His people - the Nation of Israel and more specifically - those who are descended from Abraham. Think about it - too many coincidences in a chain of events to ignore.
Interesting...
Thank you for facts and insights on the ME.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Antifa and other leftists are celebrating the murder of the UHC CEO and are calling for more of the same.
However, on social media, there have been many who consider themselves on ‘the right’ supporting the assassination as well.
OBSERVATION - Both are symptoms of a dehumanization process that has been growing over the past 8 to 10 years and the growth of a perception of injustice becomes the norm and the system refuses to provide balance that people will begin to work outside of the system to find regress.
***
Federal law enforcement is surveilling Americans’ financial activity without warrants, according to an interim report released on Friday by the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.
The FBI has been able to access bank customer financial information through manipulating the Suspicious Activity Report (SAR) system.
The report found that the FBI requested banks search private bank transactions for “MAGA,” “Trump” and “Biden.”
“With narrow exception, federal law does not permit law enforcement to inquire into financial institutions’ customer information without some form of legal process,” the report read. “The FBI circumvents this process by tipping off financial institutions to ‘suspicious’ individuals and encouraging these institutions to file a SAR — which does not require any legal process — and thereby provide federal law enforcement with access to confidential and highly sensitive information.”
OBSERVATION - This article and related has been out there for a few days now and the knowledge of gross spying by the govt on citizens has been on the radar for a longer period. Note the targeted searches and you see the deep state developing targets and info on the right - and they don’t collect this information for grins and giggles, but for eventual tactical use.
***
A Texas federal judge has issued a preliminary block on the Corporate Transparency Act, which would require all American businesses to report information about their stakeholders to the Treasury Department, invalidating it within less than a month of its reporting deadline.
The nationwide injunction was issued by U.S. District Judge Amos Mazzant in Sherman, Texas, siding with the 300,000-member National Federation of Independent Businesses and a group of non-profits and small businesses who claim the act is unconstitutional. Some of the other plaintiffs involved include the family-run firearms and tactical gear store Texas Top Cop Shop and the Libertarian Party of Mississippi.
Mazzant said the federal government was making an “unprecedented” attempt to legislate in an aspect of law that is typically left up to states and taking away the anonymity that states offer for forming corporations. He based his decision on the ruling that Congress does not have the authority to regulate commerce in this way and that it was violating states’ rights under the Tenth Amendment.
The judge wrote in his 79-page opinion: “For good reason, Plaintiffs fear this flanking, quasi-Orwellian statute and its implications on our dual system of government. If sanctioned, there’s no telling how Congress might control companies in the future.”
https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-12-08-texas-judge-blocks-transparency-act.html
OBSERVATION - Again, the govt doesn’t collect this kind of information unless they are planning on weaponizing it. Expect more to be attempted under the radar during the Trump administration.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
Both the nation’s unemployment rate and number of unemployed inched up in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday.
At 4.2%, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for November was higher than both October’s rate of 4.1% and the 3.5% mark recorded in November of 2023. Likewise, the number of unemployed persons increased to 7.1 million, up from 7.0 million in October and 6.0 million a year earlier.
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/jobs-lost-retail-trade-push-unemployment-rate-higher-november
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
More cases of a mysterious flu-like illness labelled “Disease X” were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the World Health Organization has dispatched a rapid response team to help investigate.
Over 400 cases of the unidentified illness – marked by fever, headache, cough, runny nose, and body aches – have been reported since late October in the Panzi health zone in southwest Congo, the WHO said in a statement Sunday.
While more than half of the cases involve children under 5, a 50-year-old man hospitalised in Lucca, Italy, is suspected to have recovered from the disease after a business trip to Congo, Il Tempo reported.
Russia -
*****
Total damage and other losses to Russia as a result of the collapse of the Assad regime have yet to pop out from OSINT and other analysts. But the total cost is going to be huge.
Lost infrastructure costs for the Tartus Naval Base and the large airfields is in the multi hundreds of billion dollar range. Losses in equipment, ranging from small arms and ammunition to jet fighters and air defense systems will be huge as well. Some of the latter may have been mitigated via the reduction in Russian support being diverted to the Ukraine war.
These losses are unlikely to hit the front lines in Ukraine in the short term, but will in the intermediate term (the next year) as Russia has to decide how to rebuild the losses while sustaining the war.
The Russia fleet in the Mediterranean is in a world of hurt. Tartus was its main base and there are no equivalent in the region except for the Black Sea region, which is effectively bottled up by Turkey in response to the Ukraine war., and the numbers of ships available in that fleet have been seriously depleted by Ukraine attacks since the start of the war.
***
With the Russians no longer able to operate from Tartus they are faced with two choices, either find an alternative for Tartus or being unable to maintain a permanent presence in the Mediterranean. In theory several options are available such as Eqypt, Algeria, Sudan and Libya. Non of these options provide the full range of advantages that Tartus offered.
Egypt could offer the Russians a position in the Eastern Mediterranean, close to the Suez Canal and port facilities from which to sustain a permanent presence. Egypt has a neutral policy trying to balance between Russia and the West. However, in the past years, Egypt has been shifting closer to the West with military arms purchases from European shipyards and F-16s provided by the United States. Allowing for a Russian presence in Egypt would alienate it from the West and jeopardize future military purchases as well as support for current western systems.
In the case of Algeria, most people are pointing out that the Russians regularly dock at Algiers, have good relations with the country and that Algeria is an active buyer of Russian weapon systems. Such analysis fail to take other factors in account. First, Algeria is pursuing a largely anti-colonial policy rather then a anti-western policy though some overlap exists. Algeria has a neutral stance and while it allows Russian warships to dock in Algiers, these port visits are nothing more then a short resupply and refueling stop for vessels just coming in or planning to go out of the Mediterranean.
Granting the Russians a naval base would mean a shift in Algerian policy of a more neutral stance to a pro-Russian stance. Even if Algeria was planning to give the Russians a naval base, the location is not suitable for Russia.
Over the past years, Russia has been developing ties with Sudan leading to an agreement for a Russian naval base at Port Sudan. Also here, several issues will limit any Russian deployment.
Port Sudan would place the Russian Navy in the Red Sea, thus out of the Mediterranean. Though the close proximity of the Suez Canal would allow to dispatch vessels into the Eastern Mediterranean, the operational freedom would be limited as the Suez Canal serves as a chokepoint and early warning of Russian deployments.
Port Sudan in its current form is unable to support a naval task force and major dredging and construction efforts would be needed in order to create a suitable naval base, an operation that would take years.
Last but not least, the active civil war in Sudan places a risk on any Russian plans for a naval base in Port Sudan. Should the anti-Russian faction win the Sudanese Civil War, the agreement to station Russian warships in Port Sudan would be revoked.
All things considered, the port of Tobruk, Libya, would offer the least bad option for the Russians if they want to maintain a permanent presence in the Mediterranean.
First, the port of Tobruk allows for existing port facilities that could support a naval presence. Though less developed as the naval base in Tartus, a limited presence could be sustained. Fleet oilers and Amur class repair vessels could keep a task force operational over a long duration, just as was the case in Tartus. The nearby airfield at Adam, south of Tobruk, could allow for aerial logistics as well as the deployment of naval aviation aircraft though desert conditions would place an additional burden on maintenance and combat readiness.
Secondly, the location has some benefits. Located south of Crete and closer to the Central Mediterranean would result in easier surveillance by NATO forces, the location would still allow Russia to project power towards Crete and the Suez Canal, its main geopolitical targets in this region. Operating from Tobruk also brings Russian warships closer to Europe, thus expanding the area that can be struck with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Thirdly, the existing fuel infrastructure could aid the Russian task force. Just as with Banayas, Syria, the Russians could use their civilian tankers to transport crude oil out of Libya and bring in refined fuel, most likely aviation fuel, to support its operations.
And last, the Haftar regime in eastern Libya is already depended on Russian forces. Russian private military companies already operate in eastern Libya and were recently reinforced with military equipment coming from Syria, a so called Libyan Express run of at least 4 transports took place during 2024. Libya already serves as an important transit point for Russian aircraft heading to and from Africa.
https://russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-russian-navy-and-fall-of-tartus.html
OBSERVATION - Good analysis by the speciality blog above.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
2/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
18/37 Shahed drones
An additional 18 were suppressed by electronic warfare. One UAV remains in Ukrainian airspace.
Russian losses per 09/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1220 men
+18 AFVs
+3 artillery systems
On the night of 6th December Ukrainian naval drones have attacked Kerch Bay, using onboard guns to attack helicopters. According to intelligence there were casualties and damage to helicopters
Partisan Resistance ——
Vehicle of the chief of Olenivka prison, involved in deaths of Ukrainian POWs, was blown up in Donetsk this morning
Summary —
As noted under Russia above, the full effects of the Russian disaster in Syria have yet to ripple through the system to effect the battlefield. Russia is going to have to divert a lot of energy and money to rebuild any kind of fleet presence in the Mediterranean. That will severely divert assets Russia is heavily applying in Ukraine and potentially crush the enlarged military budget and speed economic collapse of the nation. Will the loss of ports help push Russia into peace talks so it can divert resources from Ukraine to rebuilding its naval presence in the region?
Weather effects may be coming into play as the number of Russian casualties on a daily basis has notably dropped the past few days. This suggests that fewer attacks are taking place due to weather and associated soil conditions.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany is halting decisions on asylum applications from Syrian citizens after Syria’s former ruler Bashar al-Assad fled the country, a spokesman for the Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) tells dpa
Austria suspends asylum applications for Syrian citizens -Krone
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF elements expand the buffer zone within Syria
- IAF hit hundreds of targets throughout Syria.
- Possible movement on the Hamas hostage issue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime-Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced the end of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement in the Syrian Golan Heights following the collapse of the Syrian Arabic Republic! Orders seizure of buffer zone
Israel
The Syrian side of Mount Hermon was captured by the Israeli Air Force’s elite Shaldag Unit. The troops did not face any resistance during the operation.
Netanyahu on the Syrian border:
“We send a hand of peace to all those beyond our border in Syria: to the Druze, to the Kurds, to the Christians, and to the Muslims who want to live in peace with Israel.”
Former Defense Minister Benny Gantz warns of an Iranian nuclear breakout, urging Israel to act decisively, including immediate military intervention, to eliminate the threat.
***
Negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza “have reached an advanced stage,” according to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. The report cites “informed sources” saying Hamas provided Egyptian mediators with a list of Israeli hostages who are elderly or have medical conditions, expected to be released in the first phase. The list reportedly includes four American citizens.
Israel has received this list alongside one detailing Palestinian prisoners Hamas wants freed.
An Israeli delegation is expected to arrive in Cairo today to finalize the agreement. Hamas has reportedly agreed to a 60-day transitional period involving a temporary Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, along with increased humanitarian aid entering the Strip, including food, medicine, and fuel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas, in an official statement, congratulated the Syrian people on achieving “freedom and justice” and expressed confidence that Syria will maintain its historic support for the Palestinian cause.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
US intelligence estimates that at least 4000 Hezbollah soldiers have been killed so far in fighting and using common estimation for those wounded too severe to return to fighting of 3X the deaths, another 12,000 were taken out - for a total of approximately 16K.
Ceasefire violations by Hezbollah have dropped substantially, likely due to the organization pulling back due to the heavy losses of personnel, arms and material in Syria.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
NOTE - I’m splitting reporting on Syria between two spots depending on the source. This area is for Israel dealing with the Hezbollah/Iran threat from Syria, while the Syria category below is all other - now primarily the aftermath of the rebel uprising and over throw of Assad.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A Houthi drone struck a residential building in the southern city of Yavne this morning. The military says it is investigating why sirens were not activated. There were no injuries in the attack, but damage was caused to several apartments
Presence of the “Islamic resistance” has been severely depleted and damaged in part by elements that moved west to try to support Assad and got caught up in the disastrous loss, now fleeing across the border to Iraq. This has reduced militia presence and the US has been hitting very heavily lately, supporting coalition friendly Kurdish forces take over of historic staging areas of the Iranian backed militia forces.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Big play now is Israel expanding its presence in Syria and creating a buffer zone in the previous DMZ established in 1974 after the Yon Kippur war. With the ongoing chaos in Syria, Israel is launching a massive effort to demilitarize Syria to the maximum level possible, destroying equipment, ammo, bases, you name it. Israel wants a little as possible remaining that the rebels could potentially use against it at a future date.
Efforts to keep Hezbollah under its thumb may have been helped by the losses Hezbollah suffered in Syria in both men and material. Russia ‘helped’ Israel in hitting Russian and Iranian/Hezbollah munition sites.
Iran is assessing its options to be able to support Hezbollah, but they are very few. Syria is off limits for the immediate future, both by air and ground. Iran/Hezbollah made some serious enemies during the Syrian civil war and it is doubtful the new rulers of Syria want any significant presence of either for a long time.
Gaza continues to move in end game. Hamas showing weakness in being forced to get a handle on the number of hostages it holds and their status. Something they’ve resisted for most of the war. One of the big demands was the immediate withdrawal of all IDF forces from Gaza. Now a regulated pull out seems ok. May include a caveat that Israel will be allowed to interdict threats like against Hezbollah.
Iran’s threat towards Israel remains low. They have enough on their plate to absorb with the losses in Lebanon and now Syria to go around poking the Israeli bear. This scenario does increase the threat that Iran will fast track development of a nuclear weapon now that its ‘conventional’ weapons of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria have essentially been stripped away and their conventional missile and drone threats being countered effectively.
Iran’s nuclear program is target #1 for Israel and they may well go for it after Trump enters office. A significant element of the post revolution Syria has been targeting and elimination Syrian radar capabilities, freeing the IAF to move across Syria when striking Iran. Clock is ticking on both development of nukes and the destruction of the capability.
Iran –
Iran is facing a greater threat internally for an overthrow of the mullahs in the face of the embarrassment of the losses in Syria. Regime opposition sees this as a major sign of weakness and there are rumors of a development of a revolt along the lines of what hit Syria. The vast amount of money lost with Hezbollah and Syria will ripple across the Iranian economy, fueling anti-regime sentiments. Should Israel go after the nuclear program, this anti-regime movement may gain even greater traction. Unconfirmed reports that some key players in the govt are backing away from the mullahs and even begin to favor the monarchy. Crisis point could get critical after Trump takes office.
Syria -
Rebels are at work attempting to bring control to the chaos in the region and establish a new govt. Mohammad al-Bashir, the head of the Syrian Salvation Government which has managed Idlib for several years, has been tasked with forming a new Syrian government to oversee the transitional phase, according to Al Jazeera.
Scattered fighting between elements remaining, mostly in the northeastern region where Turkish supported groups are fighting Kurdish forces.
Russian media from the Kremlin: former Syrian President Bashar Assad and his family members are in Russia. They were granted political asylum for humanitarian reasons.
Overnight, elements of three different air forces pummeled the Syrian country side. Russian finished up hitting targets - mostly Russian ammo and material dumps.
Israel, OTOH, hit more targets than they ever did during the 1973 Yon Kippur war. Dozens of aircraft attacked nearly 100 targets of the Syrian army almost non-stop. Targets included a major security complex in the southern suburb of Kafr Sousa, as well as a branch of the Scientific Studies and Research Center in the Damascus known to have been used previously be Iran from the development of long-range missiles and other weapons. Israel also taking out Syrian fighter jets, air defense radars, and anti-aircraft batteries. In other words, the path to Iran is being cleared.
Russia is still facing issues. Across the country, detachments of Russian soldiers have been found abandoned by their leaders, having no clue that Syria has fallen to the rebels.
Rebels have officially entered the strategic port city of Tartus as reports emerge of Russian forces withdrawing key naval assets.
Syrian rebels have also entered Latakia, the main port of Syria and the last stronghold of Assad’s regime.
Mount Jablah next to Hmeimim Air Base has been captured by rebel forces. It is unclear if there are still Russian forces present at the air base.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia has come to some sort of agreement with the rebels so as not to directly attack these bases (at least yet) presumably until they get their equipment and people out.
In eastern Syria, U.S. CENTCOM says its forces hit 75 ISIS targets today in Syria, utilizing B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s. Included but not stated were remaining Iranian backed militia sites. Several locations were reportedly hit with over 1,000 bombs (hello B52s). These “Islamic Resistance” elements (See Israel) mostly headed west to try to assist the Assad army, but likely got caught in the route and then deflected back to Iran via Iraq.
***
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz directed the IDF:
1. Complete the takeover of the buffer zone in Syria and the controlled points - IDF activity continued last night to seize additional points.
2. Work to create a security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructure in the southern region - beyond the buffer zone - that could threaten the State of Israel - while establishing contact with the Druze population in the region and other populations.
3. Work immediately to prevent and thwart the renewal of the weapons smuggling route from Iran to Lebanon through Syria
4. Continue to work to destroy heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria