A more abbreviated report today. Got a lot on the plate and have to get out early to collect food for the local emergency food bank. This drive is the largest in the state, so my SAR unit has called for all hands.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
BLM elements in NYC are attempting to rally the faithful using the Daniel Penny trial as a backstop. Claims that Perry will get off of charges because he is white and the so called victim - Jordan Neely - was black. Coincides with a wrongful death lawsuit being filed by Neely’s father.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
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Butte County law enforcement officials on Thursday revealed that the gunman behind Wednesday’s shooting at a private K-8 school was allegedly attempting “child executions” because of American involvement in the alleged genocide of Palestinians in Gaza
The suspected shooter has been identified as 56-year-old Glenn Litton, a homeless man with a lengthy criminal record who moved between the Chico and Sacramento area.
The development comes after authorities obtained the man’s writing, which gave the motive for the shooting, and referenced something called the “International Alliance.” However, Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said authorities have found no evidence of the alliance, and the suspect has a history of mental illness, per the Daily Wire.
“Countermeasure involving child executions has now been imposed at the Seventh-Day Adventist school in California, United States by the International Alliance,” Litton wrote. “Lieutenant [Litton] of the Alliance, carried out countermeasure in necessitated response to America’s involvement in Genocide and Oppression of Palestinians along with attack towards Yemen.”
OBSERVATION - Mental case or just a serious lefty who’s swallowed the pro-Hamas propaganda hook, line and sinker.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024
Employers created 227,000 jobs in November, a solid improvement reflecting resilience in the economy following a weaker report in October
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent but remains near low levels, according to the November jobs report released by the Labor Department.
Job gains in November beat forecasters’ predictions of 200,000. But economists have noted that November job creation could paint an artificially strong picture of the labor market, coming after one-off economic events. Two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing pushed job creation down in October, resulting in the weakest showing since December 2020.
(Washington Post)
OBSERVATION - Through they try to put lipstick on it, job market is still very weak.
North/South Korea –
All but three MPs of South Korea’s ruling party left parliament ahead of a vote on whether to impeach embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol That means the bill fell short of the 200 members required to pass it, with the opposition needing eight MPs from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) to back it.
Protests in Seoul demanding the resignation / impeachment of Yeol.
Russia -
The Russian embassy in Damascus calls on its citizens to leave the country immediately.
In Syria, Russian forces may be preparing to leave Hmeimim air base & Tartus naval base in Syria as the regime continues to lose ground to opposition forces.
The Kremlin losing its footprint in Syria would undermine its strategic objectives in the Mediterranean & Africa.
Tartus is Russia’s only formal overseas naval base, which it uses to project power into the Mediterranean and support its Africa operations.
Tartus also links Russia’s Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean, although Turkey has severed this link by closing the Turkish Straits.
Russian forces have evacuated their S-400 long-range SAM battery from Khmeimim Air Base in western Syria. Multiple 5P85SM2 TELs were spotted earlier today driving south down the M1 highway towards the port of Tartus.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian losses per 07/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1300 men
+17 AFVs
+12 artillery systems
+2 AD systems
This marks a substantial decrease in losses - potentially reflecting slow down of offensive operations.
Ukraine has reportedly released videos that shows a number of strikes on gas rigs in the black sea which they believe are used to house surveillance equipment.
The sea drones attack the structures at their base while air drones strike the platform.
Clips show rigs engulfed in massive blazes while others show huge explosions on the platforms as the drones strike.
Summary —
Ukraine hit some low hanging fruit in the Black Sea. With the Russian Black Sea fleet cowering in ports far away from Ukraine reach, Russian oil and gas platforms don’t have the luxury of running away.
Belarus -
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow could deploy its Oreshnik Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile System (IRBM) in Belarus by the second half of 2025. The decision follows a request from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a Summit in Minsk, Belarus. Putin stated that Belarus would choose the targets for the missiles deployed on its soil.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Demonstrations continue in Georgia
New protest rally at Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi tonight. Rustaveli Avenue: Riot police used tear gas and water cannons to dismantle the protest in front of Parliament, which was followed by violent arrests
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Unconfirmed reports on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hostage deal negotiations have been reported to enter a new and “final” phase, sources told Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
Hamas is attempting to determine the number of living Israeli hostages it and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip are holding, Palestinian sources told Saudi-owned news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday.
The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leadership reached out to other groups to assess the number of living hostages.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-832330
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IDF bolsters forces on Golan Heights, the IDF decided to reinforce forces in Division 210 on the Syrian border in the Golan Heights security cabinet to hold special sessions Saturday & Sunday night. via N12News.
Engineering elements are constructing trenches and installing other vehicle barriers along the border with Syria.
***
Channel 12 (as well as other sources) is reporting that the Israeli Air Force recently carried out strikes against several of the Assad regime’s chemical weapon facilities in Western Syria, in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of advancing rebel forces.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel is taking the pause in the action in Gaza and Lebanon to shift focus on the developing rebellion in Syria and making preparations for any spill over or direct attempts at attacking the nation.
Iran –
Three Iranian officials have told the New York Times that they have begun the evacuation of senior military leaders and personnel from Syria, in anticipation of the imminent collapse of the Assad regime. Top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force have left Syria for refuge in both Lebanon and Iraq; in addition, Iranian military personnel, diplomatic staff and their families, as well as Iranian civilians began to be evacuated on Friday, with their departure being ordered by the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and IRGC Leadership.
***
International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran is “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity. This level is considered the last step before quickly enriching to weapons-grade levels.
Syria -
Assad hours are numbered. Without getting into all the details as in the past a summary is more than sufficient.
- Rebel forces have entered Homs and Syrian forces are retreating.
- Daraa Governorate in Southwestern Syria has fallen to rebels after 24 hours. This region was where the civil war began in 2011. Syrian forces retreating. This has resulted in fighting beginning in the southern neighborhoods and town of Damascus.
- Rebel forces pressing towards Damascus from the east, taking control of the Qalamoun region in the northern Damascus countryside. Syrian forces retreating
- US backed rebels have taken control over the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. Iranian backed militias fleeing.
- SDF has taken full control over the government pockets in Hassakeh and Qamishlo as well as nearly all of eastern Syria
- Iranian forces and civilians have begun to evacuate from Syria
- Hezbollah is fleeing Syria
- Russian forces are in the process of evacuating Syria
A senior source in the Kremlin: “We have no intention of saving the Bashar regime, as long as he does not fight, and runs away from his positions.”
- The U.S. Embassy in Syria has now amended its security alert for the country and included newly taken territory in the impacted areas.
“The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to depart Syria now while commercial options remain available in Damascus.”
- Assad’s family has remained in Russia.
Damascus is facing assault from three sides and Assad’s forces are failing to put up much of a fight as well. This has been made worse by the lack of Russian and Hezbollah (Iranian) support they received early on in the civil war. The total collapse of the Syrian army has been epic and generally unforeseen.
Some analysts suggest that Syria may be broken up into three countries.
- An Assad supporting regions along the coast from Idlib south to the Tartus region. NOTE - the rebel forces may well take control of this region at the rate they are going.
- A Sunni majority in the central regions, that included Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and Hama
- A possible druze / Kurd controlled eastern and far southern coalition.
JORDAN -
Jordan has closed its border with Syria. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry called on Jordanian citizens residing and present in Syria to leave the country as soon as possible.
Source: Sky News Arabia
Thanks for your work Godzilla.
What? Russians aren't cutting, running and leaving weapons for the Afghans? Oops, wrong enemy... but you get my point.
Syria has fallen to Sunni rebels and the power structure of the region has titanically been altered.
What more will happen in the next few weeks before the end of the year.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Black Lives Matter has threatened widespread riots in major U.S. cities if Daniel Penny is acquitted.
OBSERVATION - BLM has been issuing other threats of rioting in other cases / incidents as well this past week. This sudden revival in the desire for violence may largely be due to the Trump election and the BLM handlers trying to push the blacks into violent action as a result. Of the ‘causes’ BLM is claiming, the Penny case is the highest profile and most likely to generate some degree of violence should he be fully acquitted or case tossed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Trump set the world leaders in their place over the weekend when he arrived in Paris for a celebration of the reopening of the Cathedral of Notre Dame.
Russia -
*****
Moscow is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups amid the escalation in that country, - the Russian Foreign Ministry said
Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported. “There is currently no serious threat to the security of Russian military bases in Syria.”
Russian Foreign Ministry: Assad left the presidency and Syria after negotiations with a number of participants in the Syrian conflict, gave orders to peacefully transfer power, Russia did not participate in the negotiations
OBSERVATIONS - Russia has lost probably hundreds of billions of dollars equivalent worth of equipment and facilities in Syria. The critical ports on the Med Sea have put them in a strategic bind, having relied upon them to project power in the region. With the Black Sea Fleet bottled up by Turkey, Russia will have no significant bases in the region and will find its naval forces primarily bottled up in the Baltic region. The loss of strategic airfields in Syria will also impact Russian operations in Africa, cutting off a link of the logistical chain.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and rain and snow throughout much of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 Russian Shahed-type drones overnight
Russia continues to press the ground assault all along the eastern front.
SecDef Austin, announcing today’s Ukraine aid, said that Russia has suffered at least 700,000 casualties and squandered more than $200 billion since its invasion of Ukraine
Summary —
Pretty much the standard daily combat. Russia continues to press the attack all along the eastern front.
Impacts from the Russian losses associated with the debacle in Syria to the Ukraine war are uncertain at this time. The rushed withdrawals of Russian forces may permit some additional key elements to be redeployed to the Ukraine war zone, like ADA assets. Russia had no real ground forces other than those needed to support its air force elements. Russian troops did not participate in any significant manner in ground fighting. Residual elements of Wagner did engage on the ground, but those elements are very depleted following the Wagner uprising a year ago.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF have pushed into the UN buffer zone in Syria and establishing defensive positions.
- Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon now in jeopardy due to the overthrow of Assad’s govt by Iranian/Hezbollah hostile rebel forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports of an Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah militants fleeing the rebel offensive in Syria, via the Al-Qusayr border crossing into Northern Lebanon.
NOTE - .This is not talking place in Lebanon, so no breach of ceasefire.
See Iran below on impacts from the Syrian rebellion
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Increased military preparation in the Golan Heights area:
Following the developments in Syria - the IDF’s Northern Command launched an attack in the buffer zone in the Quneitra area, in order to strengthen the defense of the border. The community of Quneitra has been captured and IDF is pushing deeper, reaching Jisr Raqqad in the Quneitra countryside,
The IDF deploys roadblocks along the Golan Heights. Traffic in the area will be restricted as needed.
All the agricultural areas adjacent to the Syrian border have been declared a closed military area, and the entry of farmers there will be restricted.
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1865609234379067617?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
IDF artillery and airstrikes has been heavily shelling the city. With one target being the former barracks used by the IRGC in Quneitra
Division 98 was called up to the Syrian border with the paratrooper brigade and the commando brigade.
***
According to Axios’ Barak Ravid; Israel has sent messages to several of the rebel groups operating in Syria over the past few days, including Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), telling them that if they approach the Golan Heights in any way that violates the Israel-Syria truce agreement, then they will face military action.
***
Israel’s Air Force is attacking weapons depots in the Damascus area.
The report is about an attack on strategic weapons stockpiles that must not come into the hands of the rebels.
Another IDF strike on the Khalkhalah air force base that belonged to the Assad regime south of Damascus
IDF: Moments ago, (Yesterday) armed assailants launched an attack on a UN outpost in Syria’s Khedr region. on the Golan border
The IDF has stepped in to support UN forces in countering the assault.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Overnight, IAF intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Yemen to Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
I’m going deeper into the effects of the Syrian over throw of Assad under Iran below. In short - Iran and Hezbollah have found themselves to be in a very difficult situation. Iran is no longer capable of resupplying / rearming Hezbollah.
Will anti-Hezbollah elements within Lebanon take the cue and go after Hezbollah and the grip it has had on the nation for over a decade now?
Again, the pause in Gaza and Lebanon action has freed up Israel to respond to the rebel action in Syria.
And in Gaza, Hamas now facing the greater reality that neither Hezbollah or Iran or any other arab nation for that matter, is going to come to their aid any time soon (measured in years). Hamas played their cards and got trumped. Remaining question is just how badly do the want to continue to be exterminated and does their will to live exceed their hate for Israel.
Iran –
Iranian opposition channels: “After Syria, it’s time for a revolution inside Iran.”
Reports indicate that by midweek, the Iranian government is (was) in a state of complete panic over the rebel advance. An internal IRGC document reportedly describes the situation as “strange and unbelievable,” adding that it feels as though Iran has “accepted Assad’s fall and lost the will to resist it.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1865538901751783669?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Iran’s MFA spokesman says diplomats in the Iranian embassy in Syria left the mission “minutes before” it was raided
***
Iran has spent some estimate over 50 billion dollars in constructing the facilities necessary to arm and prepare Hezbollah for an invasion of Israel. In the recent war, Israel has destroyed a lot of those facilities. Now anti-Hezbollah rebel forces are cleaning up the remains.
Hezbollah has had a large force in Syria supporting Assad and has committed a number of atrocities against Syrians, primarily the sunni Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) related elements.
Now, with the ceasefire Iran/Hezbollah had intended using the time to rearm its Lebanese forces. That has now been destroyed.
Homs, the corridor used by Iran to bring weapons to Hezbollah, is no longer available. The Hezbollah supply chain from Iran by air and ground is now blocked and denied to them. Hezbollah lost a lot of fighters in Syria over the past couple weeks, as they were pretty much the only forces that stood and fought HTS forces.
Iran’s only remaining sword against Israel was completely demolished in less than two weeks. Hezbollah is essentially cut off from support.
Trump taking over in less than a month and a half.
Iran is in a very weak position and is now suspect able to an internal uprising. Syria was a very key component of its regional goals of dominance.
Syria -
The Assad regime is no more. Overnight, rebel forces not only captured Homs, but Damascus as well. Syrian army elements folded quickly and with out much of a fight, if any.
Assad if believed to have left the country, but where is unknown as he has not been seen or heard from in over a day. Some rumors that he was on an IL-76T that may have been shot down. The rebels say they shot down Assad’s plane, but this isn’t confirmed.
Unlike the capture of Aleppo, Hama and Homs, locals broke into looting across Damascus. Rebel elements reportedly are attempting to bring things back under control.
The overthrow of Assad took less than two weeks and has sent shockwaves through the region.
Syrian rebel commander from the Free Syrian Army:
“We are open to friendship with everyone in the region - including Israel. We don’t have enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel did against Hezbollah in Lebanon helped us a great deal. Now we are taking care of the rest.” - Times of Israel
The rebel alliance contained many factions. The lead group is known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It is an al-Qaeda linked terror group and was originally the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda co-founded by the former leader of ISIS. It is Sunni, which makes it an enemy of the Shia Iran (and its proxies). It received a lot of backing from Turkey and the rapid success of the rebellion is indicative of that aid.
Two other major factions are the Druze located in S Lebanon araa and Suwayda regions of Syria. The other are Kurds in the eastern half of the country. Currently, fighting is ongoing between the Kurds and the Turkish supported rebel elements. Turkey has had a bone to pick with the Kurds for a long time now.
Besides Israeli airstrikes, reports that Russia is bombing weapons storage facilities of Russian & Iranian weapons in Syria
***
Coastal cities are what’s left under any kind of regime control. With the coastal cities fortified by one side with Alawiyin mountains, this will be the hardest part for the Rebels to advance. Reports this morning that Rebel force have entered the Coastal City of Latakia in Northwestern Syria. This town is just north of Russia’s major airbase at Latakia.
However, reports continue of Russia abandoning airfields and naval bases in the region.
The coastal cities may remain under Russian control, at least for now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GeOhufWXkAAZWoN?format=jpg&name=small
FINAl OBSERVATIONS for today -
Many are picking their jaws over the speed and success of the rebel forces. The next weeks and months will shape the new realities in the region. Will Syria essential break up into two or three smaller countries? Will the rebels maintain peace in regards to Israel? Will the sunni linkage to Saudi Arabia and SA’s movement towards an agreement under the proposed Abrahamic Accords help keep Syria neutral towards Israel?
Misc of Note –
Some final (for today at least) muddled meandering thoughts on what hit the middle east the past year and cumulated in the last couple weeks
Iran’s regional strategy unraveled in a dramatic and cataclysmic manner. Things fell like dominoes beginning with the Hamas facing the brunt of Israel’s wrath for the Oct 7, 2023 terror attack and over the course of 2024 it has been reduced to rubble, like much of Gaza. It is now known that Hamas was supposed to have conducted this as a supporting attack to Hezbollah’s action but prematurely kick it off in order to gain the glory (in reality, Hamas and Hezbollah weren’t ever on really good terms). Israel took unprecedented actions against Hamas in Gaza - going into full honey badger mode and stripping away the common hiding behind civilian tactics of Hamas.
WIth Hamas pretty well decimated, Israel “called” on Hezbollah, intiated full fury attacks on strongholds in Beirut and across S Lebanon, cumulating in the invasion of S Lebanon. Hezbollah lost all its leadership, something like 80 % of its rocket / missile stockpiles and forces faced decimation under the continued Israeli assault - to the extent that Hezbollah called for a ceasefire (With Iran’s blessing and urging!).
Meanwhile, TWO massive ballistic missile barrages (nearly 200 ballastic missiles each) by Iran against Israel were grossly ineffective. Those missiles that managed to get past ABM defenses hit areas that caused little to no damage or significant deaths.
Israel twice hit Iran, with precision and no losses, leaving Iran virtually defenseless from air attacks. The Israeli airstrikes were unprecedented.
This ceasefire was just a cover to permit Iran to rearm Hezbollah, then the unthinkable happened - a massive rebel assault coming out of the beleaguered nothern provinces of Syria of anti-Assad and Anti-Hezbollah/Iran forces swept southward with virtually no resistance and resulted in the Assad regime being eliminated. With the assault, Hezbollah/Iranian facilities and ability to rearm Hezbollah in Lebanon disappeared. ALL supply routes used by Iran have been cancelled, and Hezbollah in Syria took severe casualties.
The action over the past year go beyond coincidence but IMHO displays the actions of God to direct retribution on those who sought to destroy Israel.
- The Hamas/Hezbollah assault was thwarted by Hamas and triggered the falling of the line of dominos
- Hezbollah’s destruction totally unforeseen
- Iran’s missile threat just wasn’t there and their vulnerability to more conventional IAF power projection overwhelming
- Rebels stripping Irans resupply ability to Hezbollah.
In the Bible, God time and again uses nations to execute His judgements and will. He forms and shapes the situations for protecting His people - the Nation of Israel and more specifically - those who are descended from Abraham.
Think about it - too many coincidences in a chain of events to ignore.