Replies

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

BLM in Akron, Ohio are trying to organize riots after an armed 15-year-old was shot dead on Thanksgiving by police. At the funeral for Jazmir Tucker outside the Miller South School for the Visual and Performing Arts, masked armed militants did patrols around the school.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1864822272760123882?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - Release of police body cameras clearly showing the armed 15 yr old may help defuse the situation. However, armed militants / BLM marching around, in violation of the law, the school is disturbing and could indicate some are considering a more violent protest.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Hard ball continues to be played by anti-trumper RINOs in the senate who are threatening to prevent the appointment of key personnel to administrative positions.

China –

China urges all its citizens to evacuate Syria immediately.

Russia -

Russian Personnel Issues –-

(ISW) Russian forces have suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in Sept-Nov 2024 in exchange for 2,356 sq km of gains. (Or approximately 53 Russian casualties per sq km of Ukrainian territory seized.)

Since the start of the war, it is estimated that Russia has suffered over 750,000 casualties.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, 53 Shahed drones were launched into Ukraine. A total of 32 were shot down, 16 were suppressed by electronic warfare and 2 returned to Belarus.

Russian losses per 06/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1660 men
+8 tanks
+46 AFVs
+20 artillery systems

Russian casualties are estimated to have passed 750,000 since the start of the war.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russia continues its efforts to remove Ukraine forces from the territory.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces are pushing westward, just south of Pokrovsk, towards Novopustynka

Summary —

I still see the war moving toward some sort of an end game scenario. Russia is holding fast to its demands for the essential total surrender of Ukraine as well as ceding portions of eastern Ukraine to Russia proper. Russia is backing its demands with a bloody offensive in the east that is gaining more territory even at incredible personnel and equipment losses. Ukraine and western supporters are struggling to switch the narrative to grant them leverage in any talks.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Rapid wins by Syrian rebels has caused Israel to prepare defensive plans is the Assad regime collapses.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

After discussing the crisis in Syria last night, the Israeli security cabinet ministers were summoned to two more follow up meetings on Syria - on Saturday night and on Sunday, Israeli official says

In Israel, there was surprise at the rapid rate of progress by the rebels and their occupation of the city of Hama within a few hours. There is also surprise at Russia’s relative lack of involvement, which has not been bombing villages in Syria as extensively as it did nearly a decade ago when it saved the Assad regime from collapse.

US State Department: Washington does not agree with Amnesty International’s conclusions that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Artillery and air strikes hit central and northern Gaza overnight.

Hamas has finally agreed to the deal reached with Fatah (Palestinian Authority) in Cairo, which transfers all governmental powers and jurisdiction in Gaza to the Palestinian Authority. This agreement, presented as the establishment of a “Community Support Committee,” effectively restores the Palestinian Authority’s governance over Gaza. The Community Support Committee will not become official until a presidential decree is issued approving its establishment, structure, and leadership. It is now waiting for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to issue the decree

https://x.com/IhabHassane/status/1864693778558132527

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

In a new Israeli attack, the army targeted the Al-Arida border crossing between Lebanon and Syria in Akkar, at dawn on Friday, which put it out of service again. This attack comes only 4 days after the crossing returned to work after it was rehabilitated due to being targeted previously

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli raids at dawn today on areas in the Qusayr area in the Homs countryside targeted the Asi Bridge near the Sayyida Shrine in the town of Rablah and military equipment belonging to the Radwan Unit of the Lebanese Hezbollah militia

Multiple border crossings between Syria and Southern Lebanon were targeted last night by the Israeli Air Force, as they continue attempts to deny Iranian-backed forces in Syria from transferring weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces raid numerous locations across Judea and Samaria.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Ceasefire continues to hold as Hezbollah opts to go with less conspicuous actions to rebuild forces versus direct attacks.

Gaza continues to shift to end game, with the apparent shifting of leadership from Hamas to the PA and Abbas.

Iran is still in suffering from the Hamas and Hezbollah losses in addition to new losses in Syria. Short of sending in IRGC or regular army units to fight the rebels, the multiple militias they have moved into the fight have not helped Assad’s forces stop the advance of the rebels.

The apparent and impending collapse of the Assad regime is posing new security challenges to Israel. As the rebel forces continue to plunge to the south, they come closer and closer to Israel’s border and the Golan Heights, controlled by Israel. Currently, the objective of the rebels appears to be maintained on ousting Assad from power - and they are very close to achieving that goal. The problem for Israel is that inspire of the rebels being in opposition to Hezbollah and Iran, they are cored by idealists more closely aligned with ISIS and AQ - and can in no way be seen as friendly towards Israel.

Israel, OTOH, is not the poorly trained and demoralized rag tag army of Assad. They are masters of combined arms combat and currently hold key defensive terrain in the Golan and N Israel areas. The rebels would have to face an army that will not flee, as they have so far. Its easy to win when your opponent runs away, not so when they stand and fight and know how to do so.

I see Israel forming up units for initial defensive operations and probably reinforcing border regions. The slow down in Gaza and the ongoing ceasefire in Lebanon will give them the personnel and equipment necessary for this initial preparation.

The rebels, for their part, will be involved in trying to establish control of the country when/if Assad falls, and that will take some time. But given how their offensive has been so well organized, they may already have plans made to expedite the switch over of power.

Iran –

Iran aims to send missiles and drones to Syria and increase the number of its military advisers there to support Assad, a senior Iranian official told Reuters

Iraq -

PMF chief Faleh al-Fayyadh says what is happening in Syria is an ‘internal matter’ and has ‘no connection to Iraq’. Russian airstrikes targeted the Al-Rastan Bridge in an effort cut the road between Hama and Homs, but apparently the rebel forces were able to use alternative routes to cross the Orontes River.

Muqtada al-Sadr issues a statement prohibiting interference in Syrian affairs, emphasizing that it is up to the Syrian people to decide their own fate

Lebanon -

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem: We will stand by Syria to defeat the goals of “this aggression”

Syria -

Following the capture of Hama, rebel forces have exploded southward and now control the entire northern countryside of Homs, and have just taken control of the town of “Al-Dar Al-Kabira”, which is six kilometers away from the center of Homs city. Syria. They have flown down highway M5 like a rocket sled, far faster than I anticipated.

Social media reports that tens of thousands of Syrians are flooding roads south of Homs in an effort to escape the rebels.

Meanwhile, Rebels also pushed eastward, deep into the East Hama desert, reaching the areas of Ithriya (strategic crossroads) and Uqayribat. Assad’s forces also left everything behind there

Formation of the Southern Operations Room for fighters from Daraa, Sweida and Quneitra has been announced. Southern rebel forces have begun to take terrain and capture Syrian army equipment.

Turkish backed units continue to press the attack in N Syria against Druid forces in the region.

Several drones were reported to have been intercepted by air defenses earlier over the city of Damascus, in what is believed to have been the first drone attack ever by Rebel forces on the Syrian Capital.

OBSERVATION -
Now outdated (already!) maps showing the rapid progress of the rebel move the past few weeks. Now they are on the edges of Homs, further south than the second map indicates.

Start of rebel offensive

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GeDGBzGWAAcQ91M?format=jpg&name=large

Current

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GeDGBzHWsAA1FKQ?format=jpg&name=large

Again, note the second figure/link is already out of date.

Assad’s control over Syria is coming apart rapidly. He is not getting the support from Russia and Iran he did at the start of the civil war when he was on the verge of being overthrown then. Both Russia and Iran have bigger problems of their own.

If / when Homs is captured, Russia will be faced with either more aggressively fighting the rebels or substantially pulling out of the region.

Iran is facing losing Hezbollah and militia assets to the rebels and being forced to inject its IRGC and regular forces into the fray. These assets are relatively available, but at a cost that Iran may be hard pressed to support - while attempting to rebuild Hezbollah and move its nuclear program forward.

I expect Homs to fall rather quickly like Hama did. The Syrian army has shown very little taste for a fight to stop the rebels and continue to retreat rather than fight. The terrain between Homs and Damascus is relatively open with few villages that could be fortified. They are small and as the rebels have demonstrated, they are wise enough to bypass and surround as necessary. Lengthened logistics tail may do more to slow the rebels down than any Syrian army resistance.

The battle for Damascus may come to a head by the end of the year.

Misc of Note –

Yesterday, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake shook Northern California generating a tsunami warning stretching all the way from Florence, Oregon, to Davenport, California. That warning was later cancelled. In addition to the size of the quake, it was also shallow, both key contributors to the creation of a tsunami. The motion of the quake - strike/slip - however doesn’t always generate major tsunamis ,but often smaller, local surges.

Setting - for all the hyperbole, the epicenter was just west of the triple junction structure off the coast of N California. Here, the San Andreas curves to the west becoming the Mendocino fault zone (right lateral). Connected to this spot is the southern end of the Cascadia subduction zone, where the Juan de Fuca plate (a remnant of the Farallon Plate) is being shoved under the Pacific Northwest.

The tsunami alert involved evacuation notices for all coastal residents and created a substantial traffic jam of people leaving ocean front areas. News discussions indicated that many of those who evacuated were woefully unprepared for the experience.

For all Freepers out there who live in areas where you could be required to evacuate in the event of a natural disaster such as -

- tsunami
- flood
- forest fire
- hurricanes
- nuclear fallout projections

You must make sure you have a grab and go system that can quickly be loaded up. Such would include at least 3 days worth of clothing, food, water for you AND YOUR PETS. Have important household documents together and any heirlooms identified so they can be quickly taken (but note - these would be very low on the evacuation list)

Next, make sure you are VERY familiar with evacuation routes. I’ve been to the coastal areas of N Cal a lot over the years, and the road network out there absolutely sucks and is incapable of evacuating the numbers of people now living out there quickly. Second, for flood, fire, hurricane scenarios - you may have a little more warning - so get out the sooner is better.

Many still look to an impending mega quake generated by the Cascade subduction zone. This is not bogus doomsday talk. The geologic setting is similar to that near Japan and Indonesia where massive tsunamis have recently hit. It has been documented that a 9+ hit the region in 1700, generating a 100 foot plus tsunami in the PNW area and reached Japan causing damage. And this hasn’t been the only mega quake generated by the Cascadia subduction zone. Should another big one hit, similar levels of tsunami damage can be expected from British Colombia south to N California. The damage and deaths would increase that from the quake itself and create a tremendous disaster zone encompassing millions.

Advice - research where you live and identify if you are in a zone where evacuation may be necessary on short notice. Gather the necessary evacuation kit (remembering to check it at least annually), know evacuation routes and identify destinations to evac too.

This last item is important. Past disasters have shown that FEMA / Red Cross shelters are just another disaster for refugees. Make plans with family and/or friends to hole up - and do so long before the event, don’t just show up at their door. Or if RVing it, have locations down certain as others may be headed to the same destination(s).

Specific to those living in the PNW, the earthquake damage alone could leave hundreds of thousands in western regions of California, Oregon and Washington cut off from the rest of the country due to damages to roads and other infrastructure. These area could face months before substantial aid reaches them via roads or rail. Plan accordingly.

A more abbreviated report today. Got a lot on the plate and have to get out early to collect food for the local emergency food bank. This drive is the largest in the state, so my SAR unit has called for all hands.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024

BLM elements in NYC are attempting to rally the faithful using the Daniel Penny trial as a backstop. Claims that Perry will get off of charges because he is white and the so called victim - Jordan Neely - was black. Coincides with a wrongful death lawsuit being filed by Neely’s father.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***

Butte County law enforcement officials on Thursday revealed that the gunman behind Wednesday’s shooting at a private K-8 school was allegedly attempting “child executions” because of American involvement in the alleged genocide of Palestinians in Gaza

The suspected shooter has been identified as 56-year-old Glenn Litton, a homeless man with a lengthy criminal record who moved between the Chico and Sacramento area.

The development comes after authorities obtained the man’s writing, which gave the motive for the shooting, and referenced something called the “International Alliance.” However, Butte County Sheriff Kory Honea said authorities have found no evidence of the alliance, and the suspect has a history of mental illness, per the Daily Wire.

“Countermeasure involving child executions has now been imposed at the Seventh-Day Adventist school in California, United States by the International Alliance,” Litton wrote. “Lieutenant [Litton] of the Alliance, carried out countermeasure in necessitated response to America’s involvement in Genocide and Oppression of Palestinians along with attack towards Yemen.”

https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/northern-california-gunman-attempted-carry-out-child-executions-response-war-israel

OBSERVATION - Mental case or just a serious lefty who’s swallowed the pro-Hamas propaganda hook, line and sinker.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Dec 5, 2024

Employers created 227,000 jobs in November, a solid improvement reflecting resilience in the economy following a weaker report in October
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent but remains near low levels, according to the November jobs report released by the Labor Department.

Job gains in November beat forecasters’ predictions of 200,000. But economists have noted that November job creation could paint an artificially strong picture of the labor market, coming after one-off economic events. Two hurricanes and a strike at Boeing pushed job creation down in October, resulting in the weakest showing since December 2020.
(Washington Post)

OBSERVATION - Through they try to put lipstick on it, job market is still very weak.

North/South Korea –

All but three MPs of South Korea’s ruling party left parliament ahead of a vote on whether to impeach embattled President Yoon Suk Yeol That means the bill fell short of the 200 members required to pass it, with the opposition needing eight MPs from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) to back it.

Protests in Seoul demanding the resignation / impeachment of Yeol.

Russia -

The Russian embassy in Damascus calls on its citizens to leave the country immediately.

In Syria, Russian forces may be preparing to leave Hmeimim air base & Tartus naval base in Syria as the regime continues to lose ground to opposition forces.
The Kremlin losing its footprint in Syria would undermine its strategic objectives in the Mediterranean & Africa.

Tartus is Russia’s only formal overseas naval base, which it uses to project power into the Mediterranean and support its Africa operations.
Tartus also links Russia’s Black Sea assets to the Mediterranean, although Turkey has severed this link by closing the Turkish Straits.

Russian forces have evacuated their S-400 long-range SAM battery from Khmeimim Air Base in western Syria. Multiple 5P85SM2 TELs were spotted earlier today driving south down the M1 highway towards the port of Tartus.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian losses per 07/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1300 men
+17 AFVs
+12 artillery systems
+2 AD systems

This marks a substantial decrease in losses - potentially reflecting slow down of offensive operations.

Ukraine has reportedly released videos that shows a number of strikes on gas rigs in the black sea which they believe are used to house surveillance equipment.
The sea drones attack the structures at their base while air drones strike the platform.
Clips show rigs engulfed in massive blazes while others show huge explosions on the platforms as the drones strike.

Summary —

Ukraine hit some low hanging fruit in the Black Sea. With the Russian Black Sea fleet cowering in ports far away from Ukraine reach, Russian oil and gas platforms don’t have the luxury of running away.

Belarus -

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow could deploy its Oreshnik Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile System (IRBM) in Belarus by the second half of 2025. The decision follows a request from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko during a Summit in Minsk, Belarus. Putin stated that Belarus would choose the targets for the missiles deployed on its soil.

Europe / NATO General –

GEORGIA - Demonstrations continue in Georgia
New protest rally at Rustaveli Avenue in Tbilisi tonight. Rustaveli Avenue: Riot police used tear gas and water cannons to dismantle the protest in front of Parliament, which was followed by violent arrests

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Unconfirmed reports on a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hostage deal negotiations have been reported to enter a new and “final” phase, sources told Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

Hamas is attempting to determine the number of living Israeli hostages it and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip are holding, Palestinian sources told Saudi-owned news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat on Saturday.

The sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hamas leadership reached out to other groups to assess the number of living hostages.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-832330

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IDF bolsters forces on Golan Heights, the IDF decided to reinforce forces in Division 210 on the Syrian border in the Golan Heights security cabinet to hold special sessions Saturday & Sunday night. via N12News.

Engineering elements are constructing trenches and installing other vehicle barriers along the border with Syria.

***
Channel 12 (as well as other sources) is reporting that the Israeli Air Force recently carried out strikes against several of the Assad regime’s chemical weapon facilities in Western Syria, in order to prevent them from falling into the hands of advancing rebel forces.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is taking the pause in the action in Gaza and Lebanon to shift focus on the developing rebellion in Syria and making preparations for any spill over or direct attempts at attacking the nation.

Iran –

Three Iranian officials have told the New York Times that they have begun the evacuation of senior military leaders and personnel from Syria, in anticipation of the imminent collapse of the Assad regime. Top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force have left Syria for refuge in both Lebanon and Iraq; in addition, Iranian military personnel, diplomatic staff and their families, as well as Iranian civilians began to be evacuated on Friday, with their departure being ordered by the Iranian Embassy in Damascus and IRGC Leadership.

***
International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran is “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity. This level is considered the last step before quickly enriching to weapons-grade levels.

Syria -

Assad hours are numbered. Without getting into all the details as in the past a summary is more than sufficient.

- Rebel forces have entered Homs and Syrian forces are retreating.

- Daraa Governorate in Southwestern Syria has fallen to rebels after 24 hours. This region was where the civil war began in 2011. Syrian forces retreating. This has resulted in fighting beginning in the southern neighborhoods and town of Damascus.

- Rebel forces pressing towards Damascus from the east, taking control of the Qalamoun region in the northern Damascus countryside. Syrian forces retreating

- US backed rebels have taken control over the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. Iranian backed militias fleeing.

- SDF has taken full control over the government pockets in Hassakeh and Qamishlo as well as nearly all of eastern Syria

- Iranian forces and civilians have begun to evacuate from Syria

- Hezbollah is fleeing Syria

- Russian forces are in the process of evacuating Syria
A senior source in the Kremlin: “We have no intention of saving the Bashar regime, as long as he does not fight, and runs away from his positions.”

- The U.S. Embassy in Syria has now amended its security alert for the country and included newly taken territory in the impacted areas.
“The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to depart Syria now while commercial options remain available in Damascus.”

- Assad’s family has remained in Russia.

Damascus is facing assault from three sides and Assad’s forces are failing to put up much of a fight as well. This has been made worse by the lack of Russian and Hezbollah (Iranian) support they received early on in the civil war. The total collapse of the Syrian army has been epic and generally unforeseen.

Some analysts suggest that Syria may be broken up into three countries.

- An Assad supporting regions along the coast from Idlib south to the Tartus region. NOTE - the rebel forces may well take control of this region at the rate they are going.

- A Sunni majority in the central regions, that included Damascus, Aleppo, Homs and Hama

- A possible druze / Kurd controlled eastern and far southern coalition.

JORDAN -

Jordan has closed its border with Syria. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry called on Jordanian citizens residing and present in Syria to leave the country as soon as possible.
Source: Sky News Arabia