Well, goes from relatively quiet to very busy in a flash. this is going to be a long one today
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Earth is ablaze, and humanity is exposed,” warned United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres ahead of the massive UN climate summit starting next week.
Set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) hopes to make large strides toward combating climate change and eliminating carbon emissions.
One of the largest goals of the conference is to get more money from nations in the name of saving the planet. Guterres announced a lofty ambition for developed countries to double financial support for climate efforts such as windmills and solar — to $40 billion by next year.
The United States currently foots one-third of the United Nations’ budget. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in a promotional video for COP29, “Climate finance is the great enabler.”
https://thenewamerican.com/world-news/un/united-nations-to-discuss-climate-change-at-cop29/
OBSERVATION - This snuck in on me. It started this week. It is under the shadow of Trumps ill favor towards it and as noted above, is financed heavily by the US.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Down graded due to lack of activity.
See Israel - INTERNATIONAL on growing Europe attacks on Jews by Islamist / Antifa elements.
Reason for the note up here as well is that this ‘alliance’ if I can call it such, appeared on US college campuses this past spring and could become a future source of trouble as there are connections to these European groups and the US.
***
(DCNF)—Democratic governors and other liberal elected officials have lined up to declare that they will fight back against President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline immigration agenda.
Trump, who won the election on Tuesday in an electoral landslide, has promised to conduct mass deportations across the country and withhold federal funding from sanctuary cities, along with a slate of other hawkish enforcement proposals. However, Democratic governors in Massachusetts, California and Illinois — all of whom have been speculated as potential 2028 presidential contenders — and other elected leaders have said they will use their authority to push back against the upcoming administration’s agenda.
https://thelibertydaily.com/democrat-governors-mayors-pledge-shield-illegal-aliens-trumps/
OBSERVATION - Under Trump 1, federal lawsuits were started against the sanctuary movement. Biden quickly shut them down. This time around Trump faces the benefit of knowing what tactics the left will try to use and tailor his efforts to defeat them. However, these states/cities promise to fight every step of the way.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Republican control of the House rose as they added a 219th seat after the re-election of Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., was confirmed.
***
An attorney helping President-elect Donald Trump assemble his new administration warned career employees at the U.S. Justice Department on Monday that they could be fired if they tried to resist the Republican’s agenda.
“If these career DOJ employees won’t implement President Trump’s program in good faith, they should leave. Those employees who engage in so-called ‘resistance’ against the duly-elected president’s lawful agenda would be subverting American democracy,” wrote Mark Paoletta, an attorney at Schaerr Jaffe who is leading Trump’s Justice Department transition team, in a post on X.
“Those that take such actions would be subject to disciplinary measures, including termination,” he added
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-doj/2024/11/11/id/1187589/
OBSERVATION - The DoJ joins many other agencies that will be facing the brunt of firings after Trump takes office next January. Across the board, Trump’s team is announcing that they will be taking no prisoners in the effort to clean up corrupt agencies.
***
McConnell’s senate coup attempt to replace his leadership spot with anti-trumpet establishment republicans (RINOs) hit hard road bumps the past couple days. Rallied by pro-Trump supporters on “X”, republican senators reportedly have been hit with a lot of comments from constituents over the secrecy of the impending meeting as well as demands not to support either of McConnell’s choices for replacement - Thune ore Conyrn - or any other anti-mega senator. So much so that there are leaks that some senators are complying about being “bullied” by constituents - imagine that, being answerable to the people who voted you in.
RUMINT is that the effort is close to getting pro-mega Sen Scott (FL) selected. Again, we are not out of the woods as there are enough RINOS roaming the Senate (and house too for that matter) that attempts to derail the Trump agenda will continue.
With republicans like this - who needs democrats.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that morale in the border patrol has skyrocketed knowing of trumps pick for border czar and that there reportedly a flood of retirees seeking to come back to aid in the cause of securing the border.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has ratified a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Russia. The pact obligates each side to provide immediate military assistance if the other is attacked. It also legally allows North Korean soldiers to engage in combat on Russian soil, specifically in regions like Kursk.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a new missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
0/? S-300 ballistic missiles
106/110 Shahed drones (46 by regular air defense, 60 by electronic warfare)
Two UAVs left Ukraine via Belarusian airspace.
Ukraine drones attacked an oil depot in the Stary Oskol district of Belgorod region, according to Governor Gladkov. One tank caught fire, but the blaze was reportedly “quickly extinguished.”
Water level raise recorded at Vovcha river after suspected dam break at Kurakhove water reservoir. Ukrainian authorities have no access to the dam to asses the damage. Videos released on social media indicate that the dam, under Russian control, was partially breached with explosives.
Russian losses per 11/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1770 (!) men
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports now breaking thru on the start of Russia’s counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Note Ukrainian sources -
The 225th Assault Battalion reports about several large Russian mechanized assault in the Kursk region. It is reported that four of such attacks happened today, driving in columns, one after another.
The 95th Air Assault Brigade showed footage of a recently repelled Russian mechanized attack into Pogrebki, Kursk region.
An unsuccessful attempt by Russian forces to cross the Psel river in the Kursk region. After being noticed, they were immediately targeted by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade.
The 33rd mechanized brigade fought back to a massive Russian attack. Russian forces were greeted with a rain of shells, bombs, and drone strikes. According to the brigade, 2 tanks and 6 armored vehicles were destroyed and 29 Russians were killed, with 19 more wounded.
The 46th Air Mobile brigade repelled a large Russian mechanized attack. Yesterday morning, 12 Russian armored vehicles appeared near Ukrainian positions. From the column, 3 tanks and 6 IFV’s were either destroyed or damaged. At the same time, three groups of Russian infantry tried to cross the river in rubber boats, they were quickly detected.
Russians have started attacking Dar’ino, geolocated footage confirmed. The direction of attack also confirms that Obukhovka, previously considered in a gray zone, or at least with partial AFU presence, is now Russian controlled.
OBSERVATION - Many of these reports have videos associated with them. Russian forces continued with their brute force style of attacks that lends to them being stopped with heavy losses. Charging tanks and armor in single file columns, many times into minefields and caught at choke points. As noted above, the estimated losses yesterday were over 1770 men, most associated with the Kursk attacks.
Also, videos show that the soils are becoming increasingly wet and muddy.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces continue to press the attack along the line south of Pokrovsk.
Summary —
The big show is developing in the Kursk region. Russia reportedly has massed 50K troops including as many as 11K North Korean forces. Early into the counter offensive but initial review indicates Russia continues to use poor tactics, preferring to simply rush as Ukraine positions, hoping to get close enough to initiate close attack. This has been successful on rare occasions, but more times than not it has resulted in heavy losses and the assaults being blunted. Even with the counter offensive, Ukraine has reported making some gains in the region.
Ukraine’s efforts in Kursk may have left the focus in the Donbas short handed, suggested by Ukraine reports and some marginal gains by Russia. Videos posted on social media show soil conditions beginning to worsen with the advent of fall/winter rains. That will do more to halt offensive actions than the actual combat in many ways.
Russian still relying on large Shahed attacks. Enough get thru due to overwhelmed ADA assets to score some damage. No signs of let up.
Europe / NATO General –
Reports that the head of Nato warned Trump that if the US abandons Ukraine, nato will kick the US out FOUND TO BE FAKE - came from Russian sources.
***
Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema announces she will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow with representatives from the city’s mosques in an attempt to stop the pogroms and riots in the city.
Anti-Israeli violence growing in many other parts of Europe. Especially France and England.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US deadline for increased aid to Gaza has passed, no word on if US will impose threatened embargo.
- 3 strongly pro-Israeli members to the Trump cabinet were announced.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz says Iran’s nuclear sites are more vulnerable than ever, following Israel’s airstrikes on its air defense sites. “Iran today is more exposed than ever to damage to its nuclear facilities,” he said. “There is a possibility to achieve the most important goal, to thwart and remove the threat of annihilation from hanging over the State of Israel.”
“There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon. We will continue striking Hezbollah until they are disarmed beyond the Litani River and the safety of northern residents is ensured.”
***
The main UN aid agency in Gaza says Israel has failed to meet a US deadline to boost aid to the territory or risk a reduction in American military aid.
Last month, in a strongly worded letter, the US secretary of state gave Israel an ultimatum of 30 days to ensure more aid trucks reached Gaza daily. The deadline expires on Tuesday.
The amount of aid getting into Gaza is at its lowest level in a year, the UN says. A UN-backed report recently warned that there was an imminent likelihood of famine in northern Gaza, where hardly any aid has entered in the past month.
Israel says it has substantially increased the amount of aid getting into Gaza, and accuses aid agencies of failing to adequately distribute it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rl0v76nxyo
NOTE - UNRWA refuses to acknowledge that Hamas routinely hijacks these shipments and sells them on the black market. As much as 50% get stolen.
***
Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, in a briefing to the foreign press, stated: “Progress has been made in the negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon; however, the main challenge that remains is the enforcement of the agreements. The Russians in Syria can help stop the rearming of Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s missile capabilities were severely damaged and mostly destroyed, but the war against the terrorist organization is not over.”
***
Reuters quoting the Israeli Finance Minister: I have issued instructions to prepare for extending sovereignty over the West Bank
***
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated on November 11 that there has been “certain progress” in ceasefire talks to end the fighting in Lebanon. Iranian politicians are continuing to coordinate politically with the Lebanese government.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Intense fighting reported west of Gaza City. Repeated targeting of the Sudanese area, Intelligence and the North, coinciding with intense artillery shelling and gunfire
***
In an IDF operation targeting a major Hamas stronghold in Jabalia, northern Gaza, over 1,100 terrorists were eliminated, and more than 1,000 terrorists have surrendered. Approximately 64,000 local residents left the area. The IDF anticipates securing full control within 48 hours
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF hammered S Beirut almost continually overnight. Tyre region also heavily hit.
Yesterday Hezbollah launched nearly 200 launches towards northern Israel.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. CENTCOM forces conducted strikes against nine targets in two locations associated with Iranian groups in Syria in response to several attacks on U.S. personnel in Syria over the last 24 hours.
Syrian media is reporting airstrikes in the Deir Ezzor area of eastern Syria targeting sites belonging to Iran-backed militias. At least one militia member was killed and several others were injured, according to the reports
***
Initial reports of a U.S. precision-airstrike on a vehicle containing Senior Houthi Officials in the Al-Bayda Governorate of Western Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Over the last few days, Jews have been hunted down in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium.
Leftists and Islamists in England are now planning the same.
***
Arab and Muslim leaders demanded on Monday that Israel withdraw from occupied Palestinian territories as a precondition for regional peace, while denouncing “shocking” Israeli crimes in war-ravaged Gaza.
A summit meeting in the Saudi capital gave the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s 57 nations a chance to speak with one voice on turmoil unfolding across the region, more than a year into the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
It came less than a week after Donald Trump secured a second term as president of the United States, Israel’s top military backer.
The summit’s closing statement said that “a just and comprehensive peace in the region... cannot be achieved without ending the Israeli occupation of all occupied Arab territories to the line of June 4, 1967,” referring to the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem as well as Gaza and the Golan Heights.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-arabs-gaza/2024/11/11/id/1187591/#ixzz8rJTYRemc
***
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has accepted President-elect Donald Trump’s offer to be his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, the New York Post reported Monday morning.
Trump is expected to nominate Republican Senator Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State.
The next U.S. National Security Advisor, Congressman and former Green Beret, Michael Waltz - TOUGH on terrorism and a great friend to Israel.
NOTE - All three are very pro-Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Trump’s selection of Stefanik for UN ambassador, Rubio as Sec State and Waltz as Nat’s Scty Advisor is huge in the ongoing middle east wars. Strongest, pro-Israel grouping seen in decades. Also serves notice to Iran that its days may well be numbered.
Israel only has to survive the next couple months of the lame duck biden regime’s efforts to undermine Israel’s efforts to free itself from the constant threat of annihilation by Islamic forces lead by Iran.
The arab league meetings denounced Israel and demanded to go back to 1967 borders for any ‘peace’ However, in a put down to Iran, they didn’t state any measures with which to accomplish this. Read more as rhetoric than anything very deep.
In this light, eyes are still on Iran and what its response will be to the Israeli strike. With each day it seems the consequences for any attack grow. One view may be to try something before biden is out of office, trying to rely upon US inability to respond, perhaps even with a Gaza based embargo in place. I think israel has the means available to respond with minimal US support - meaning a lot of Iran could be smoldering.
One item that seems to have slipped thru is the Iranian report of its testing one of its newer ballistic missiles. Note that about a week before its attack on Israel, they did some missile testing as well. May be unrelated, but then a lot of intelligence is the recognition of patterns, and this could potentially be one of those patterns developing.
Hezbollah senior leadership and structure continues to be destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. That is working its way down to the tactical level.
Israel’s progress in the south seems very slow, because it is. Decades of Hezbollah preparation for the Big One have to be reduced for onward movements. Mostly Hezbollah relies on hit and run attacks which Israel is far better equipped to deal with than they were in 2006.
In Gaza, it appears the latest operations in N Gaza are wrapping up, with over 2000 Hamas and affiliated terrorists either killed, wounded or captured. Action seems to be heating up in Central Gaza as Hamas tries to muster forces for another stand.
Finally, on an international basis, anti-Israel elements are ramping up attacks across Europe. Swamped with moslems, they are easily triggered against israel and Antifa elements are quickly mobilizing to join the developing chaos. Not a good time to be a Jew in Europe. My concern is that this could spread to the US in a large way early next year. I also see this as an alternative way Iran can attack Israel without launching missiles at it. It is known to be working behind the scenes to organize and fund these developing Pograms.
The United States currently foots one-third of the United Nations’ budget. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in a promotional video for COP29, “Climate finance is the great enabler.”
https://thenewamerican.com/world-news/un/united-nations-to-discuss-climate-change-at-cop2
_____________________________________________________
Trump needs to look into this because the world’s corrupt ‘elites’ might try to ‘assist’ the danger to the world by seeding the upper atmosphere to ‘get’ results that will shake then greenie money tree. (while endangering the planet) No one knows how evil they really are...
A little late this morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The True Animal Protein Price (TAPP) Coalition gave comments at the 2024 U.N. Climate Change (COP29) Conference Monday urging countries to begin taxing meat.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued a report Friday weighing the pros and cons of a tax on certain foods, including meat. TAPP Coalition raised the topic at COP29 this week, suggesting that countries should tax meat and subsidize vegetables while describing the U.S. and some Western nations as a “laggard” relative to other U.N. countries when it comes to its food pricing policies.
“We believe that COP29 and UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] conferences thereafter can only be successful if the closing statement includes transitioning away from animal protein overconsumption according to national or global dietary guidelines by implementing greenhouse gas emission pricing mechanisms in agri-food systems,” Willem Branten, public affairs and policy officer at TAPP, said at the conference this week. “We urge the EU Commission, the OECD and China to lead the way towards these harmonized pricing mechanisms.”
OBSERVATION - Screw them. Just put a half of beef into the freezer with an average price of $4.60/lb - can’t even get hamburger at the store for that price. Just another effort to kill agriculture for the bogus climate change mantra
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Down graded due to lack of activity.
“It is important to note at the outset that there is no reason Democratic activists should abandon their values just because they lost this election. Our system is strengthened by passionate and active advocacy.
Rather, it is the collective fury and delirium of the post-election protests that was so disconcerting. Pundits lashed out at the majority of voters, insisting that the election established that half of the nation is composed of racists, misogynists or domination addicts who long to submit to tyranny.
Others blamed free speech and the fact that social media allows “disinformation” to be read by ignorant voters. In other words, the problem could not possibly be themselves. It was, rather, the public, which refused to listen. . . .
Our prior periods of rage politics were largely ended by the public in major election shifts like the one this month. Things, however, are different this time around both politically and legally. The problem for the resistance is the very democracy that they claimed to be saving. . . .
The “second resistance” will try to use state power to oppose the very issues and policies that led to this historic political shift. That means that there will be a legal shift in the focus of litigation to inherent federal powers versus state powers. That battle will favor the Trump administration.
OBSERVATION - This op-ed by Turley is insightful and may grant a peek under the hood for democrat actions going into Trump’s second term.
***
Federal officials are facing increased scrutiny after a whistleblower alleged that disaster relief efforts were intentionally denied to supporters of then-candidate Donald Trump. According to a report from The Daily Wire, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) supervisor Marn’i Washington told employees under her authority to “avoid homes advertising Trump” while administering disaster relief in Lake Placid, Florida, following the devastating 2024 hurricane season. At least 20 houses with Trump signs or Trump flags displayed were skipped over by FEMA with employees designating the houses with variations of “Trump sign no entry per leadership.”
OBSERVATION - Marn’i Washington has since come out and publicly stated that she was following instructions that came from even higher up and others throughout the disaster areas were issuing the same edicts, but she was being scapegoated. The whole FEMA response in predominantly RED southeast US shows just how deep the woke and anti Trump cancer of weaponized govt has gotten. This is essentially war against the America people.
***
Leftist groups are starting to recruit forces to protest at Trump’s inauguration in January. This effort is a solid probability for violence and needs closer monitoring.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 due to weaker demand revisions in China and other Asian markets.
This marks the fourth consecutive month of downward revisions by OPEC, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in China’s economic growth.
OPEC’s reduced demand forecast may impact its production cut decisions and lead to a weaker oil market outlook citing downward revisions in China and other Asian markets after seeing actual consumption data year to date.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Slashes-Oil-Demand-Growth-Estimate-Again.html
OBSERVATION - Global oil price weakness has been seen here in the US over the past couple of months. Key take away IMHO is that China’s manufacturing (and spill over into Asia in general) malaise is continuing and possibly worsening. Here in the US, similar manufacturing and economic woes are depressing the market in general. Good economy places demands on oil supplies because things are busy and moving. Economic slumps decrease demand and in turn decrease prices as supply exceeds use. While I’m happy paying 2.99/gal, I know things can whip-snap in an instant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
After years of feminizing the US military through DEI initiatives, a new executive order under consideration by the Trump transition team would establish a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel which would be granted the power to review three- and four-star officers and recommend any removals of those deemed unfit for leadership.
A draft review of the Executive Order seen by the Wall Street Journal could fast-track generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” given President-elect Donald Trump’s past vow to fire “woke generals” who have promoted diversity among the ranks at the expense of military readiness.
As commander in chief, Trump can fire any officer at will, but an outside board whose members he appoints would bypass the Pentagon’s regular promotion system, signaling across the military that he intends to purge a number of generals and admirals.
The draft order says it aims to establish a review that focuses “on leadership capability, strategic readiness, and commitment to military excellence.” The draft doesn’t specify what officers need to do or present to show if they meet those standards. The draft order originated with one of several outside policy groups collaborating with the transition team, and is one of numerous executive orders under review by Trump’s team, a transition official said. -WSJ
The board would be made up of retired generals and noncommissioned officers, who would send their recommendations to Trump. Those identified for removal would be retired at their current rank within 30 days.
OBSERVATION - Anyone looking at Trumps appointments so far can plainly see he has declared war on the deep swamp. From this pending action against the perfumed princes in the Pentagon, to the slug infested netherworlds of the DoJ and FBI and beyond, he is taking no prisoners this time. He’s had 8 years to mull over what happened to him by the swamp and now apparent poor choices for cabinet officials, and has hit the ground far better prepared - and with a mandate.
***
Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) signaled they will work with Trump if they are elected as Senate GOP leader today.
OBSERVATION - Lucy with football. . . . . .
***
NYPost. Special Counsel Jack Smith plans to retire before Trump takes office.
OBSERVATION - Retirement will NOT stop the blowback as it is documented that he committed felonies in the prosecution of Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The harris campaign and celebrities who endorsed her are facing legal issues now. The campaign paid millions for the endorsements from celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Beyoncé and Usher. Because of the payment, FEC rules require that the public be informed that the endorsement is a paid endorsement, not one freely given (as portrayed by the campaign).
North/South Korea –
South Korea has accused North Korea of disrupting GPS signals from border areas, affecting dozens of flights and ship operations.
North Korea’s GPS signal jamming took place on Friday and Saturday and was detected from around the cities of Kaesong and Haeju, officials said.
“We urge North Korea to stop GPS interference provocations immediately and strongly warn that it will be held fully accountable for any resulting consequences,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
Phillipines –
China is stepping up pressure on the Philippines to concede its sovereign rights in the South China Sea, Manila’s Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Tuesday after meeting his Australian counterpart in Canberra.
The fifth such meeting since August 2023 reflects growing security ties between the countries, which have both voiced concern about Chinese activity in areas of the busy waterway claimed by the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.
“What we see is an increasing demand by Beijing for us to concede our sovereign rights in the area,” Teodoro said after meeting Australian counterpart Richard Marles, adding that the Philippines was a “victim of Chinese aggression.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/philippines-china-south-china-sea/2024/11/12/id/1187686/
***
Philippine President Marcos passed two maritime laws last week in a move that Manila says will strengthen its sovereignty over waters within the country’s archipelago and the South China Sea.
Using standards set forth by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act identify the country’s internal waters, archipelagic waters, territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, continental shelf and sea lanes. Manila wants these acts to solidify its rights and sovereignty within the Philippines’ maritime zones.
“With these pieces of legislation, we align our domestic laws with international law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS, improve our capacity for governance and reinforce our maritime policies for economic development and for national security,” Marcos said during the signing ceremony.
https://news.usni.org/2024/11/12/new-philippine-laws-define-maritime-zones-in-the-south-china-sea
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Russian forces in the Kursk region plan to invade the Sumy region of Ukraine which borders the Kursk Oblast during the offensive.
Source: The Telegraph
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 Shahed-type drones, 2 ballistic Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles, 2 cruise missiles Kh-101. 4 ballistic missiles were launched at Kyiv
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 29 Ukrainian drones overnight, including over Penza and Tver regions
Ukrainian General Staff confirmed drone attack at the oil depot in Staryi Oskol district of Belgorod region
North Korean troops dispatched to Russia engaging in combat: South Korean spy agency
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine’s forces in the Kursk region repelled the initial phase of an expected Russian counteroffensive, resulting in Moscow suffering a one-day record number of casualties, according to Ukrainian officials.
Roughly 1,950 Russian troops were killed or wounded Monday, The Telegraph reported. This is an upward revision of the initial estimate of 1720 losses.
Summary —
Russians may be planning on its next cruise missile blitz. The two Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired by strategic bombers from over the Caspian Sea. Some analysts think this may have been a test of Ukraine ADA response and deployments in advance of a much larger attack. It has been a while since the last major missile attack.
Russia is pretty silent on any progress of its Kursk counter-offensive. Ukraine reports indicate that it has been a near disaster for Russian forces, using the same tactics that have stalled previous attacks.
Rumors of an attack into Sumy as well as in the south keep coming out. I see these as unlikely because Russia is already devoted a lot of resource to the Donbas as well as Kursk. Unless they have more equipped forces squirreled away, I don’t think they have the capability to do anything.
On the Donbas front, Russia has penetrated with a couple company sized attacks, but there doesn’t appear to be any way they can exploit them beyond their initial gains.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO chief said that Russia’s cooperation with North Korea, Iran and China threatens Europe, North America and the Indo-Pacific region
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden keeps arms coming to Israel
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Biden administration said Tuesday that Israel has made good but limited progress in increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and therefore it will not limit arms transfers to Israel as it had threatened to a month ago if the situation had not improved.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-aid-us/2024/11/12/id/1187765/
***
Rumors that Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants things wrapped up in Gaza and Lebanon by the time he steps into office this coming January. No conditions on Iran mentioned.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israel army consolidates its presence in Gaza Strip with new roads, infrastructure and buildings, according to Haaretz investigation. A senior army commander was quoted saying that the army will stay there at least until 2026
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF announced it has destroyed most of Hezbollah’s weapons manufacturing and storage sites in Beirut through recent airstrikes. Hezbollah had built numerous weapons facilities under civilian buildings in the Dahiyeh area over the past two decades, storing and manufacturing hundreds of missiles and rockets. Secondary explosions during the strikes confirmed IDF intelligence.
One major site, revealed by Israel at the UN in 2020, was under five residential buildings housing around 50 families and near a school.
Hezbollah has increased its rocket, missile and drone attacks in the past few days, probably in response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army: We are carrying out many raids inside Syria and on its borders with Lebanon to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of explosions tonight near the Mission Support Site Conoco where coalition forces are based. Reports of helicopter and fast air activity over the region. Initial estimates explosions were artillery fire on IRGC backed militia positions.
US Central Command announces carrying out strikes against weapons depots of Iranian-backed militias in Syria
Syrian Observatory: 5 members of pro-Iranian militias killed in US strike in Albukamal
***
The Pentagon confirms that a few hours ago the Houthis attacked the two American destroyers in the Red Sea with at least eight drones, 5 ballistic missiles and 3 cruise missiles.
Both the U.S. Navy and Air Force responded with several overnight strikes on Tuesday, against Houthi Weapon Storage Facilities in Western Yemen; with the F-35C seeing its combat debut, as Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 314 (VMFA-314), stationed aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), participated in the strikes.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkish President Erdogan: “We severed relations with Israel”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Trump shockwave continues. As noted below under Iran, they claim that their response to Israel’s strike is on hold pending negotiations with Trump. Now remember, this report is borderline RUMINT but does make sense in a way given how iran’s threats have suddenly calmed down. What the warning message may be is unknown but may consist of reiterating that Trump fully supports Israel taking out Iran’s nuclear program among other things. What leverage Iran may have in these talks is uncertain, as Trump’s picks for key positions are very hawkish towards Iran.
An Iranian attack is still on the radar for now, but chances are dropping by the day.
So to is Israel’s threatened response to the assassination attempt on Netanyahu. Political changes in DC may be delaying that as well.
Hezbollah continues to be hammered with its key weapons facilities and stockpiles in Beirut being destroyed. Attacks by Hezbollah have picked up in the past few days but are still relatively low, in the few hundred combined range (rockets, missile and drones). Staging for the next phase of the ground offensive continue.
Gaza is well into the end game. N Gaza is virtually cleared of Hamas and now the rest of the country is under pressure. Will Trump get a hostage break like Reagan did? Hamas is not Iran, so I doubt it.
Iran –
Iranian sources to Sky News Arabia: Iran delayed its response to Israel to open negotiations with Trump after a warning message it received via Baghdad.
OBSERVATION - Trump’s appointments have set a clear message to Iran and now a rumored warning. We’ll see soon if this is a ruse or not.
Syria -
ISIS conducted 14 attacks in Syria over the past week, including 3 days of multiple, simultaneous raids on Assad government positions outside al-Sukhna in the Homs desert
OBSERVATION - ISIS is a growing threat once again within Syria and will force Syria to divert resources from its civil war to battle the resurgence.