A little late this morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The True Animal Protein Price (TAPP) Coalition gave comments at the 2024 U.N. Climate Change (COP29) Conference Monday urging countries to begin taxing meat.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued a report Friday weighing the pros and cons of a tax on certain foods, including meat. TAPP Coalition raised the topic at COP29 this week, suggesting that countries should tax meat and subsidize vegetables while describing the U.S. and some Western nations as a “laggard” relative to other U.N. countries when it comes to its food pricing policies.
“We believe that COP29 and UNFCCC [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] conferences thereafter can only be successful if the closing statement includes transitioning away from animal protein overconsumption according to national or global dietary guidelines by implementing greenhouse gas emission pricing mechanisms in agri-food systems,” Willem Branten, public affairs and policy officer at TAPP, said at the conference this week. “We urge the EU Commission, the OECD and China to lead the way towards these harmonized pricing mechanisms.”
OBSERVATION - Screw them. Just put a half of beef into the freezer with an average price of $4.60/lb - can’t even get hamburger at the store for that price. Just another effort to kill agriculture for the bogus climate change mantra
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Down graded due to lack of activity.
“It is important to note at the outset that there is no reason Democratic activists should abandon their values just because they lost this election. Our system is strengthened by passionate and active advocacy.
Rather, it is the collective fury and delirium of the post-election protests that was so disconcerting. Pundits lashed out at the majority of voters, insisting that the election established that half of the nation is composed of racists, misogynists or domination addicts who long to submit to tyranny.
Others blamed free speech and the fact that social media allows “disinformation” to be read by ignorant voters. In other words, the problem could not possibly be themselves. It was, rather, the public, which refused to listen. . . .
Our prior periods of rage politics were largely ended by the public in major election shifts like the one this month. Things, however, are different this time around both politically and legally. The problem for the resistance is the very democracy that they claimed to be saving. . . .
The “second resistance” will try to use state power to oppose the very issues and policies that led to this historic political shift. That means that there will be a legal shift in the focus of litigation to inherent federal powers versus state powers. That battle will favor the Trump administration.
OBSERVATION - This op-ed by Turley is insightful and may grant a peek under the hood for democrat actions going into Trump’s second term.
***
Federal officials are facing increased scrutiny after a whistleblower alleged that disaster relief efforts were intentionally denied to supporters of then-candidate Donald Trump. According to a report from The Daily Wire, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) supervisor Marn’i Washington told employees under her authority to “avoid homes advertising Trump” while administering disaster relief in Lake Placid, Florida, following the devastating 2024 hurricane season. At least 20 houses with Trump signs or Trump flags displayed were skipped over by FEMA with employees designating the houses with variations of “Trump sign no entry per leadership.”
OBSERVATION - Marn’i Washington has since come out and publicly stated that she was following instructions that came from even higher up and others throughout the disaster areas were issuing the same edicts, but she was being scapegoated. The whole FEMA response in predominantly RED southeast US shows just how deep the woke and anti Trump cancer of weaponized govt has gotten. This is essentially war against the America people.
***
Leftist groups are starting to recruit forces to protest at Trump’s inauguration in January. This effort is a solid probability for violence and needs closer monitoring.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 due to weaker demand revisions in China and other Asian markets.
This marks the fourth consecutive month of downward revisions by OPEC, reflecting concerns about a slowdown in China’s economic growth.
OPEC’s reduced demand forecast may impact its production cut decisions and lead to a weaker oil market outlook citing downward revisions in China and other Asian markets after seeing actual consumption data year to date.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Slashes-Oil-Demand-Growth-Estimate-Again.html
OBSERVATION - Global oil price weakness has been seen here in the US over the past couple of months. Key take away IMHO is that China’s manufacturing (and spill over into Asia in general) malaise is continuing and possibly worsening. Here in the US, similar manufacturing and economic woes are depressing the market in general. Good economy places demands on oil supplies because things are busy and moving. Economic slumps decrease demand and in turn decrease prices as supply exceeds use. While I’m happy paying 2.99/gal, I know things can whip-snap in an instant.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
After years of feminizing the US military through DEI initiatives, a new executive order under consideration by the Trump transition team would establish a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel which would be granted the power to review three- and four-star officers and recommend any removals of those deemed unfit for leadership.
A draft review of the Executive Order seen by the Wall Street Journal could fast-track generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” given President-elect Donald Trump’s past vow to fire “woke generals” who have promoted diversity among the ranks at the expense of military readiness.
As commander in chief, Trump can fire any officer at will, but an outside board whose members he appoints would bypass the Pentagon’s regular promotion system, signaling across the military that he intends to purge a number of generals and admirals.
The draft order says it aims to establish a review that focuses “on leadership capability, strategic readiness, and commitment to military excellence.” The draft doesn’t specify what officers need to do or present to show if they meet those standards. The draft order originated with one of several outside policy groups collaborating with the transition team, and is one of numerous executive orders under review by Trump’s team, a transition official said. -WSJ
The board would be made up of retired generals and noncommissioned officers, who would send their recommendations to Trump. Those identified for removal would be retired at their current rank within 30 days.
OBSERVATION - Anyone looking at Trumps appointments so far can plainly see he has declared war on the deep swamp. From this pending action against the perfumed princes in the Pentagon, to the slug infested netherworlds of the DoJ and FBI and beyond, he is taking no prisoners this time. He’s had 8 years to mull over what happened to him by the swamp and now apparent poor choices for cabinet officials, and has hit the ground far better prepared - and with a mandate.
***
Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) signaled they will work with Trump if they are elected as Senate GOP leader today.
OBSERVATION - Lucy with football. . . . . .
***
NYPost. Special Counsel Jack Smith plans to retire before Trump takes office.
OBSERVATION - Retirement will NOT stop the blowback as it is documented that he committed felonies in the prosecution of Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
The harris campaign and celebrities who endorsed her are facing legal issues now. The campaign paid millions for the endorsements from celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Beyoncé and Usher. Because of the payment, FEC rules require that the public be informed that the endorsement is a paid endorsement, not one freely given (as portrayed by the campaign).
North/South Korea –
South Korea has accused North Korea of disrupting GPS signals from border areas, affecting dozens of flights and ship operations.
North Korea’s GPS signal jamming took place on Friday and Saturday and was detected from around the cities of Kaesong and Haeju, officials said.
“We urge North Korea to stop GPS interference provocations immediately and strongly warn that it will be held fully accountable for any resulting consequences,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
Phillipines –
China is stepping up pressure on the Philippines to concede its sovereign rights in the South China Sea, Manila’s Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Tuesday after meeting his Australian counterpart in Canberra.
The fifth such meeting since August 2023 reflects growing security ties between the countries, which have both voiced concern about Chinese activity in areas of the busy waterway claimed by the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.
“What we see is an increasing demand by Beijing for us to concede our sovereign rights in the area,” Teodoro said after meeting Australian counterpart Richard Marles, adding that the Philippines was a “victim of Chinese aggression.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/philippines-china-south-china-sea/2024/11/12/id/1187686/
***
Philippine President Marcos passed two maritime laws last week in a move that Manila says will strengthen its sovereignty over waters within the country’s archipelago and the South China Sea.
Using standards set forth by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Philippine Maritime Zones Act and Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act identify the country’s internal waters, archipelagic waters, territorial sea, contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, continental shelf and sea lanes. Manila wants these acts to solidify its rights and sovereignty within the Philippines’ maritime zones.
“With these pieces of legislation, we align our domestic laws with international law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS, improve our capacity for governance and reinforce our maritime policies for economic development and for national security,” Marcos said during the signing ceremony.
https://news.usni.org/2024/11/12/new-philippine-laws-define-maritime-zones-in-the-south-china-sea
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
Russian forces in the Kursk region plan to invade the Sumy region of Ukraine which borders the Kursk Oblast during the offensive.
Source: The Telegraph
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 Shahed-type drones, 2 ballistic Iskander-M/KN-23 missiles, 2 cruise missiles Kh-101. 4 ballistic missiles were launched at Kyiv
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 29 Ukrainian drones overnight, including over Penza and Tver regions
Ukrainian General Staff confirmed drone attack at the oil depot in Staryi Oskol district of Belgorod region
North Korean troops dispatched to Russia engaging in combat: South Korean spy agency
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine’s forces in the Kursk region repelled the initial phase of an expected Russian counteroffensive, resulting in Moscow suffering a one-day record number of casualties, according to Ukrainian officials.
Roughly 1,950 Russian troops were killed or wounded Monday, The Telegraph reported. This is an upward revision of the initial estimate of 1720 losses.
Summary —
Russians may be planning on its next cruise missile blitz. The two Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired by strategic bombers from over the Caspian Sea. Some analysts think this may have been a test of Ukraine ADA response and deployments in advance of a much larger attack. It has been a while since the last major missile attack.
Russia is pretty silent on any progress of its Kursk counter-offensive. Ukraine reports indicate that it has been a near disaster for Russian forces, using the same tactics that have stalled previous attacks.
Rumors of an attack into Sumy as well as in the south keep coming out. I see these as unlikely because Russia is already devoted a lot of resource to the Donbas as well as Kursk. Unless they have more equipped forces squirreled away, I don’t think they have the capability to do anything.
On the Donbas front, Russia has penetrated with a couple company sized attacks, but there doesn’t appear to be any way they can exploit them beyond their initial gains.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO chief said that Russia’s cooperation with North Korea, Iran and China threatens Europe, North America and the Indo-Pacific region
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- biden keeps arms coming to Israel
——— GENERAL ——————————-
The Biden administration said Tuesday that Israel has made good but limited progress in increasing the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and therefore it will not limit arms transfers to Israel as it had threatened to a month ago if the situation had not improved.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-aid-us/2024/11/12/id/1187765/
***
Rumors that Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants things wrapped up in Gaza and Lebanon by the time he steps into office this coming January. No conditions on Iran mentioned.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israel army consolidates its presence in Gaza Strip with new roads, infrastructure and buildings, according to Haaretz investigation. A senior army commander was quoted saying that the army will stay there at least until 2026
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF announced it has destroyed most of Hezbollah’s weapons manufacturing and storage sites in Beirut through recent airstrikes. Hezbollah had built numerous weapons facilities under civilian buildings in the Dahiyeh area over the past two decades, storing and manufacturing hundreds of missiles and rockets. Secondary explosions during the strikes confirmed IDF intelligence.
One major site, revealed by Israel at the UN in 2020, was under five residential buildings housing around 50 families and near a school.
Hezbollah has increased its rocket, missile and drone attacks in the past few days, probably in response.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army: We are carrying out many raids inside Syria and on its borders with Lebanon to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports of explosions tonight near the Mission Support Site Conoco where coalition forces are based. Reports of helicopter and fast air activity over the region. Initial estimates explosions were artillery fire on IRGC backed militia positions.
US Central Command announces carrying out strikes against weapons depots of Iranian-backed militias in Syria
Syrian Observatory: 5 members of pro-Iranian militias killed in US strike in Albukamal
***
The Pentagon confirms that a few hours ago the Houthis attacked the two American destroyers in the Red Sea with at least eight drones, 5 ballistic missiles and 3 cruise missiles.
Both the U.S. Navy and Air Force responded with several overnight strikes on Tuesday, against Houthi Weapon Storage Facilities in Western Yemen; with the F-35C seeing its combat debut, as Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 314 (VMFA-314), stationed aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), participated in the strikes.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkish President Erdogan: “We severed relations with Israel”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The Trump shockwave continues. As noted below under Iran, they claim that their response to Israel’s strike is on hold pending negotiations with Trump. Now remember, this report is borderline RUMINT but does make sense in a way given how iran’s threats have suddenly calmed down. What the warning message may be is unknown but may consist of reiterating that Trump fully supports Israel taking out Iran’s nuclear program among other things. What leverage Iran may have in these talks is uncertain, as Trump’s picks for key positions are very hawkish towards Iran.
An Iranian attack is still on the radar for now, but chances are dropping by the day.
So to is Israel’s threatened response to the assassination attempt on Netanyahu. Political changes in DC may be delaying that as well.
Hezbollah continues to be hammered with its key weapons facilities and stockpiles in Beirut being destroyed. Attacks by Hezbollah have picked up in the past few days but are still relatively low, in the few hundred combined range (rockets, missile and drones). Staging for the next phase of the ground offensive continue.
Gaza is well into the end game. N Gaza is virtually cleared of Hamas and now the rest of the country is under pressure. Will Trump get a hostage break like Reagan did? Hamas is not Iran, so I doubt it.
Iran –
Iranian sources to Sky News Arabia: Iran delayed its response to Israel to open negotiations with Trump after a warning message it received via Baghdad.
OBSERVATION - Trump’s appointments have set a clear message to Iran and now a rumored warning. We’ll see soon if this is a ruse or not.
Syria -
ISIS conducted 14 attacks in Syria over the past week, including 3 days of multiple, simultaneous raids on Assad government positions outside al-Sukhna in the Homs desert
OBSERVATION - ISIS is a growing threat once again within Syria and will force Syria to divert resources from its civil war to battle the resurgence.
Reeks of an 'insurrection' to me. Maybe we can get an 'Ebbs' to 'help them along'... Just kidding we're not scum of the earth like them...
So how do the globalist plan on growing enough food to make up for the lack of meat in our diets when they are destroying the very agriculture they will need?
The fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides they spray on crops are not good for us either.
I’ll take the meat, thankyouverymuch.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see what happens with RFK Jr involved with all this.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers working at the El Paso port of entry stopped a 2011 Honda Ridgeline driven by a 32-year-old Mexican national as it crossed the Bridge of the Americas (BOTA) international crossing. At the primary screening checkpoint, CBP officers decided to direct the Honda Ridgeline to a secondary screening station, where officers ran the SUV through a low-energy portal scan. It identified possible anomalies hidden in the Mexican vehicle.
A Mexican man was arrested trying to smuggle 11,100 rounds of 7.62×39 into the United States from Mexico.
https://www.ammoland.com/2024/11/11000-rounds-of-7-62x39-seized-at-mexican-border/
OBSERVATION - Linked to illegal immigration as well. Some note that the movement of ammo is usually the other way around - from the US to Mexico. This has lead some to believe that this ammo is for Cartel and other criminal elements that don’t want any traceable munitions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
More numbers coming out today and tomorrow.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The George Washington Carrier Strike Group began its participation in the second iteration of the U.S. – Japan – South Korea trilateral multi-domain exercise Freedom Edge, which began on Wednesday and wraps up on Friday.
The trilateral exercise, agreed to by the three countries during the Camp David summit in August 2023, comes in the wake of North Korea’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) launch on Oct. 31 and Short Range Ballistic Missile launches on Nov. 5. The U.S. had responded to North Korea’s ICBM launch with a joint air drill on Nov. 3 with Japan and South Korea involving a U.S. Air Force (USAF) B-1 bomber and fighter aircraft from all three countries.
“The three countries strongly condemned North Korea’s provocation, including its ICBM test launch, that undermine peace and stability in the region, including the Korean Peninsula, during recent high-level consultations, and this training reflected their will to deter and respond to such threats,” reads a South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) release on the exercise.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Growing evidence that the mRNA jabs do far more damage to the natural immune system that previously announced by the CDC and big pharma. One study showed that those infected with AIDS had their immune systems collapse very quickly (within as short as a year) after being jabbed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Multiple leftist media mouthpieces are in a tailspin following the election. The Washington Post and the LA Times firing their editorial staff, tacking to be more ‘neutral’ in reporting. CNN and MSNBC are teetering on the end. Even the nefarious “The View” is taking shots at the water level for their rants. (why haven’t those hags deported themselves as promised?)
***
Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has been elected Senate majority leader, setting the stage for him to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who has held the top Senate GOP leadership job for the past 18 years.
OBSERVATION - MAGA is disappointed in the selection and the secret meeting to shield senators votes. Thune has promised to advance the MAGA agenda, but being the underling of McConnell, there are serious doubts about his sincerity and dedication to that promise.
***
Liberal and establishment republicans heads have been exploding at some of Trump’s appointments this week. None more than the nomination of Gaetz to AG. He has essentially burned the boats by resigning his house seat and is looking full on towards the confirmation process.
JD Vance weighed in tonight on the nomination of Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and it was awesome.
Here’s the tweet from Vance:
“The main issue with Matt Gaetz is that he used his office to prosecute his political opponents and authorized federal agents to harass parents who were peacefully protesting at school board meetings. Oh wait, that’s actually Merrick Garland, the current attorney general.”
https://therightscoop.com/jd-vance-weighs-in-on-matt-gaetz-ag-nomination-with-a-zinger/
Biden / Harris Watch –
People noting just how happy biden appeared to be in photos with Trump. Jill Biden feeling the love from both Harris as well as Meloina
Russia -
*****
November 14, 2024: There are things Russia does not want to deal with or be reminded of. One of these forgettable items is the loss of the Black Sea Fleet and the inability for the Russian navy to operate in the Black Sea. Russia recently held its annual naval exercises and this year none of those operations took place in the Black Sea. Over the last three years Russia has lost 29 warships in the Black Sea and doesn’t want to lose any more.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/202411140113.aspx#gsc.tab=0
NOTE - Ukraine has targeted elements of the Black Sea fleet in the adjacent Sea of Azov as well.
Economic Impact –
H/T TIK
Posted on 11/13/2024 7:46:59 AM PST by marcusmaximus
Russian staples including potatoes, bread and dairy are soaring in price thanks to Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Russia’s soaring inflation is hitting basic supermarket staples with the price of potatoes rising a staggering 64%.
The increased cost of spuds has been put down to bad weather, rising production costs, wage increases and a shortage of labour amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Rosstat figures show Russians face widespread food price rises, with reports people are even stealing butter
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with snow in the first portions of the forecast period and rain/snow at the end of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Winter has arrived in Kharkiv. Today, icy roads and wet snow are expected across most of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a drone attack overnight. All 59 Shahed drones that were launched were taken down by air defense (21) or electronic warfare (38).
Russian losses per 14/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1690 men
+19 tanks
+51 AFVs
+64 artillery pieces
+3 MLRS
Current estimate of Russian losses is approximately 716,000 and that half of those losses are associated with 2024 operations.
Kurakhivka water reservoir lost half of its water volume due to the damage to the dam.
Besides operations in Kursk, Russia continues to press the fight in the Donbas region.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reporting by either side is limited, but releases by Ukraine indicate that the Russian counter-offensive is not going as planned.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian ministry of defense claims full occupation of Voznesenka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Ukraine forces regained territory in the Chasiv Yar area.
Kupyansk axis -
Ukraine’s military said on Thursday its troops were in full control of the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kupiansk and that their forces had stopped a Russian advance towards the railway hub.
A Russian-installed official said earlier that Moscow’s forces were gaining a foothold on the outskirts of the city, more than 2½ years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
Kupiansk was seized by Moscow’s forces in the early days of their February 2022 invasion and recaptured by Ukrainian troops in a rapid counter-offensive months later. In recent months, the area has seen an upsurge of activity by Russian forces.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/ukraine-russia-war/2024/11/14/id/1188007/
.
Summary —
I haven’t posted personnel losses too much over the course of the war, given how they can be manipulated by both sides for propaganda purposes. However, as I’ve posted in the past, the Ukraine numbers are generally very close to those produced by Western nations/intelligence sources. A surge in losses during offensive operations is generally to be expected. But with the lack of terrain being captured, those losses take a big bite out of the Russian effort.
Russia assault pattern time and again seems to be a column of armor speeds down a road, lead vehicles get hit and stops the column or they try to bypass the disabled / destroyed vehicle (normally a tank) whereupon they start hitting mines or are taken out by ATGMs with FPV drones cleaning up the remainder and going after fleeing troops. No evidence of suppressive artillery fire or even use of smoke to cover the movement.
The onset of snow and heavier rains is going to slow down Russia’s assaults soon and their forces will be struggling to keep warm and avoid disease. This will give Ukraine time to reinforce defenses and even launch some limited attacks for tactical repositioning.
With winter, expect Russia to step up the attacks on Ukraine infrastructure - particularly power and heat. Could be why the Russian appeared to test the water with strategic bombers simulating attack runs and firing a few cruise missiles - to test Ukraine ADA responses.
Poland –
US and Polish officials inaugurated a Nato missile defense base in northern Poland, with Polish officials welcoming it as a significant step in securing the country and the Nato alliance at a time of war in neighboring Ukraine.
The US missile defense base, which is being integrated into Nato’s defense, was originally planned under US President George W. Bush as a way to protect Europe from ballistic threats from Iran.
Poland, however, has always seen it as a form of US protection in case of Russia aggression, fears that have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Offensive expands in S Lebanon
- US spy caught in release of classified materials on Israel
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli army: We attacked more than 100 targets in Gaza and Lebanon in the past 24 hours
***
Nearly a month ago highly classified US intelligence detailing Israeli plans for a retaliation attack against Iran appeared online. The pair of documents were prepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and the leak immediately kicked off a massive federal investigation and hunt for the leaker.
On Wednesday federal prosecutors have revealed an arrest, with the NY Times reporting that “The man, Asif W. Rahman, was indicted last week in federal court in Virginia with two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information.” He had worked for the US government overseas, and is being charged with two counts of violating the Espionage Act. The Times has followed with an update identifying him as a CIA official.
He was arrested by the FBI in Cambodia and taken to Guam for holding.
OBSERVATION -
Just what the heck is he doing in Cambodia! Mission assignment or trying to get to a country that won’t extradite him. There is probably a lot more to this than what is being released.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Operations have slowed down, however, Hamas keeps getting hammered when they come out into the open. Israel is not afraid to engage Hamas even when they embed with refugees. Recent example is an airstrike on a rocket launcher set up in a tent refugee center - supposed to be demilitarized.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Heavy fighting reported between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters in the western sector of the border.
S Beirut hammered again overnight in the Hezbollah sector.
The IDF began to advance north to a second line of villages in southern Lebanon. Division 36 is advancing north, beyond the initial line of the 3-4 kilometer already occupied and many villages in it have been destroyed!
Times of Israel reports that if Hezbollah does not agree to the latest US-Israeli ceasefire proposal, the IDF will continue to advance further into Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army: Our fighter jets attacked today the transport hubs of the Pro-Assad forces on the Syrian-Lebanese border.
A series of Israeli raids on Shinshar, Al-Daf Bridge, Al-Qusayr, and Al-Dabaa checkpoint in the Homs countryside
The IDF conducted airstrikes on routes between Lebanon and Syria used by Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 to smuggle weapons from Iran. Syrian state media reported significant damage to bridges and roads near al-Qusayr. The IDF claims this is a major setback for Hezbollah’s smuggling operations.
***
The Syrian news agency “SANA” reports on several explosions heard in the city of Homs, Syria.
***
Reports of massive explosions in Damascus, Syria overnight
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli Israeli security forces operation in the town of Beita, south of Nablus, and the town of Taybeh, west of Jenin, in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
I don’t always mention, but daily, a few drones come in from Iranian backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Israeli intelligence officials have identified Dutch organizations with Hamas ties as the primary instigators of last week’s disturbances in Amsterdam, according to a report released Wednesday by Israel’s Diaspora Affairs Ministry.
The report details how several local organizations allegedly utilized social media platforms to heighten tensions and orchestrate attacks against Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer fans following their match against a Dutch team. Evidence includes screenshots from that evening showing explicit calls for violence and coordinated sharing of locations and tactical information.
The report identifies the Palestinian Community in the Netherlands (PGNL) as the primary organization behind the violence, claiming it maintains direct connections to Hamas.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/israel-officials-hamas/2024/11/14/id/1188009/
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Realties of the Trump election continue to hover over the region. Evidence continues to point to Iran putting the brakes on an imminent missile strike on Israel and is trying to curry favor with Trump before he reenters the WH. Part of this may be accepting new UN scrutiny of their nuclear program as a way to mitigate likely Trump sanctions and/or Israeli - US airstrikes to eliminate the program.
IRGC is still beating their chests about revenge, but otherwise not doing anything else discernible in the OSINT realms.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is helpless to prevent Israel from reducing its redoubt in S Beirut into rubble. They have lost a lot of facilities and munitions. In the south, elements of Hezbollah fighters are putting up reasonable resistance to Israel’s second phase of its movement toward the Litiani River. They suffer heavy losses when fixed in place by Israeli forces and are bombed into oblivion by the IAF. This is in part why they avoid being decisively engaged.
Peace talks continue between Israel and the Lebanese govt. This is in some ways odd since Israel isn’t at war with lebanon, but the terrorist of Hezbollah. But any long lasting peace has to be lead by a strong Lebanese govt and response. Until Hezbollah has been further reduced and the Lebanese govt believing it is strong enough to hold them in check, any final peace will be delayed.
Gaza continues to transition to Israeli controls and search and destroy operations rounding up the fragments of Hamas and its allies. Indicators continue to show that Israel intends to turn N Gaza into a military district to keep any future Hamas rocket launchers and infrastructure from threatening populated areas of Israel ever again. S Gaza, Israel has taken control of smuggling routes, cutting off Hamas supplies and materials. This leaves Gazans confined to portions of Central and S Gaza where Hamas is more easily controlled. The fact that Hamas is reaching out to its other arch enemy - Fatah - for an agreement on rulership of the rubble is evidence of just how torn apart Hamas is.
Right now, Israel’s biggest threat is Iran and readiness for an attack is still number one. How much Iran is willing to allow itself to be put back into the box in order to protect its covert nuclear weapons programs as well as its petroleum industry is yet to be seen.
Iran –
Deputy Commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: said “We will deliver a harsh response to Israel”. His threats came after a report that Tehran delays its planned response to Israel’s attack - which was a response to Iran’s attack - for perusing talks with Trump
***
UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi has arrived in Tehran. It’s his first visit to Iran since the relatively moderate Masoud Pezeshkian became president. Ahead of his visit, Grossi said the 2015 nuclear deal is now an ‘empty shell’ and called for a new negotiated arrangement
Turkey –
Turkey has now cut off all ties with Israel.
Mexico -
Mexico’s govt is eyeing impacts from Trump’s announced deportation plan. About 4% of Mexico’s economy relies upon remittance sent back by Mexicans - here legally and illegally - and authorities don’t want to lose that source of income.