Happy Veterans day to my fellow vets in America.
Somewhat of a short report today, seems that the world is taking a little breather.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The California Air Resources Board on Friday night approved new clean air standards that are expected to raise gas prices— a proposal that faced fierce criticism from lawmakers for the board’s lack of transparency on its cost to consumers and also from environmental groups who said it doesn’t do enough to reduce air pollution.
OBSERVATION - Estimated to raise the price of gasoline between 47 - 65 cents per gallon it will hammer the state’s economy already suffering from the highest prices in the nation. It will not be confined there as kalifornia is oversized in interactions with the rest of the nation. Products from kalifornia will increase in price along with the gasoline prices.
The new rule is suppose to make kalifornia on track to meet its 2030 air pollution reduction goals.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Growing anger by Trump supporters over the secret meeting to elect a future Senate Majority leader. Insider notes that anti-trumpers Thune and Conyren are leading Trump supporter Rick Scott. McConnell sees Thune and Conyren as his follow ons. The secretes of the meeting is to ‘protect’ the senators from the blowback from their votes. At this stage it is apparent that McConnell is going to be able to jam the meeting thru and have his people in place for when he retires.
Vote is reportedly scheduled for Wednesday - time to light up the Capitol switchboard folks.
Illegal Immigration –
President-elect Donald Trump says Tom Homan, his former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director, will serve as “border czar” in his incoming administration.
OBSERVATION - This guy is a pit bull, take no prisoners kind of guy who will take no crap off liberals. Good to put him as czar versus department head, he won’t have to be distracted by bureau business and can move ahead with business.
Russia -
*****
President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and advised him not to escalate the Ukraine war, a source familiar with the conversation said, but the Kremlin on Monday denied the two had spoken.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 39 of 74 Shahed-type and unidentified drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles. Predomantly residential buildings/homes were hit.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports of Ukraine advances in the northern portion of the salient. No firm info on the reported Russian counter offensive.
Summary —
Fighting continues to be tough in the Donbas region, but there seems to be a noticeable slowdown in Russian attacks.
Russia is maintaining the large Shahed drone attacks across Ukraine. Overnight, alerts went out that elements of the Russian Strategic bombers command had flown to traditional cruise missile launch points, but no missiles were reported going into Ukraine. Could be a lead up to a much larger combined drone and missile attack.
Europe / NATO General –
Unconfirmed reports that the head of Nato warned Trump that if the US abandons Ukraine, nato will kick the US out. Currently, this report is trending unlikely and unsupported. I concur with the trend, I really can’t think they would be that stupid.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Cyber attack on credit card/ATMs systems.
- Mobilization has begun for deeper pushes into S Lebanon
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Iran has claimed responsibility for a major cyberattack on credit card systems in Israel today, which disrupted numerous ATMs and credit card readers nationwide.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army announces the expansion of the humanitarian zone in Gaza, which includes field hospitals that were established since the beginning of the war, in addition to tent complexes and shelter materials, in addition to quantities of food, water and medicine, in addition to medical supplies
Word is some elements of Hamas are willing to support the rule of Fatah over what’s left of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has fired a barrage of up to 50 rockets towards predominately arab regions of N Israel.
Israeli army repeats evacuation warning for villages in southern Lebanon.
Israeli army chief approves expansion of ground operation in Lebanon; thousands of Israeli forces expected to be mobilized, will move into more areas in Lebanon to uproot Hezbollah presence.
Rumors from leaked peace proposals over Russian participation to prevent resupply of Hezbollah from Syria.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel targeted a missile warehouse in the southern Homs countryside.
Al Hadath Sources: The Israeli raid on the Sayyida Zeinab area in Damascus today targeted Ali Musa Daqduq, Hezbollah’s Golan file official. He was killed along with other senior commanders.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A missile attack has targeted the US military base in the Green Village at the Al-Omar oil field in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News reported, citing its correspondent in Damascus
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The watch on Iran for the missile strike on Israel continues. At this stage I wouldn’t say it is off the board, but it does appear that Iran is taking second and third looks at their plans.
One thing weighing could be that if Iran hits in a manner that triggers a US response, and that response by biden is underwhelming, there is nothing that says that Trump can’t revisit it and take action to finish the job. There is a lot of US firepower in the region, even without a carrier CSG. Add to this, Israel is feeling further empowered to take out Iranian nuke and oil facilities in response. Clearly, many new variables having to be crunched by Iranian mission planners.
In Lebanon, the ground war is getting set to move northward with call up of reserve forces. The extent of the Hezbollah fortification of border villages Israel has taken is nearly unbelievable, with underground bunkers said to be capable of holding battalions worth of soldiers and vast amounts of weapons and ammunition. It has taken a lot of time to clear these fortifications out.
Many OSINT analysts are noting that Israel’s continued hammering of the Hezbollah chain of command has made coordinating a defense in S Lebanon very difficult.
Israel has intensified interdiction of supplies entering Lebanon from Syria, in the northern Bekka valley region. Hezbollah has attempted to disguise the effort at humanitarian aid, but the secondary explosions say otherwise.
In Gaza, clearance operations continue to kill and capture dozens of remaining Hamas and affiliated terrorists daily. Israel continues to reinforce its control of the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border, shutting off smuggling of supplies to Hamas from there. All Hamas has left are residuals of buried supplies not yet found and destroyed by Israel. Hamas is so desperate that it now appears that they are willing to allow Fatah to control Gaza.
Internationally, the Pogrom developing in Europe is forcing countries to more aggressively protect Jews during the current soccer tournaments. Netanyahu reportedly has told the Mossad to ‘make plans’ to not only identify and take out the organizers of the violence, but to protect Jews as necessary in absence of local police. About 2000 were evacuated from Amsterdam in 10 passenger jets and returned to Israel in the past few days. Hostile arabs, most likely bankrolled by Iran, are the culprits.
OBSERVATION - This guy is a pit bull, take no prisoners kind of guy who will take no crap off liberals. Good to put him as czar versus department head, he won’t have to be distracted by bureau business and can move ahead with business.
You're right. Insightful.
Well, goes from relatively quiet to very busy in a flash. this is going to be a long one today
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Earth is ablaze, and humanity is exposed,” warned United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres ahead of the massive UN climate summit starting next week.
Set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) hopes to make large strides toward combating climate change and eliminating carbon emissions.
One of the largest goals of the conference is to get more money from nations in the name of saving the planet. Guterres announced a lofty ambition for developed countries to double financial support for climate efforts such as windmills and solar — to $40 billion by next year.
The United States currently foots one-third of the United Nations’ budget. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in a promotional video for COP29, “Climate finance is the great enabler.”
https://thenewamerican.com/world-news/un/united-nations-to-discuss-climate-change-at-cop29/
OBSERVATION - This snuck in on me. It started this week. It is under the shadow of Trumps ill favor towards it and as noted above, is financed heavily by the US.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Down graded due to lack of activity.
See Israel - INTERNATIONAL on growing Europe attacks on Jews by Islamist / Antifa elements.
Reason for the note up here as well is that this ‘alliance’ if I can call it such, appeared on US college campuses this past spring and could become a future source of trouble as there are connections to these European groups and the US.
***
(DCNF)—Democratic governors and other liberal elected officials have lined up to declare that they will fight back against President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline immigration agenda.
Trump, who won the election on Tuesday in an electoral landslide, has promised to conduct mass deportations across the country and withhold federal funding from sanctuary cities, along with a slate of other hawkish enforcement proposals. However, Democratic governors in Massachusetts, California and Illinois — all of whom have been speculated as potential 2028 presidential contenders — and other elected leaders have said they will use their authority to push back against the upcoming administration’s agenda.
https://thelibertydaily.com/democrat-governors-mayors-pledge-shield-illegal-aliens-trumps/
OBSERVATION - Under Trump 1, federal lawsuits were started against the sanctuary movement. Biden quickly shut them down. This time around Trump faces the benefit of knowing what tactics the left will try to use and tailor his efforts to defeat them. However, these states/cities promise to fight every step of the way.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Republican control of the House rose as they added a 219th seat after the re-election of Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., was confirmed.
***
An attorney helping President-elect Donald Trump assemble his new administration warned career employees at the U.S. Justice Department on Monday that they could be fired if they tried to resist the Republican’s agenda.
“If these career DOJ employees won’t implement President Trump’s program in good faith, they should leave. Those employees who engage in so-called ‘resistance’ against the duly-elected president’s lawful agenda would be subverting American democracy,” wrote Mark Paoletta, an attorney at Schaerr Jaffe who is leading Trump’s Justice Department transition team, in a post on X.
“Those that take such actions would be subject to disciplinary measures, including termination,” he added
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-doj/2024/11/11/id/1187589/
OBSERVATION - The DoJ joins many other agencies that will be facing the brunt of firings after Trump takes office next January. Across the board, Trump’s team is announcing that they will be taking no prisoners in the effort to clean up corrupt agencies.
***
McConnell’s senate coup attempt to replace his leadership spot with anti-trumpet establishment republicans (RINOs) hit hard road bumps the past couple days. Rallied by pro-Trump supporters on “X”, republican senators reportedly have been hit with a lot of comments from constituents over the secrecy of the impending meeting as well as demands not to support either of McConnell’s choices for replacement - Thune ore Conyrn - or any other anti-mega senator. So much so that there are leaks that some senators are complying about being “bullied” by constituents - imagine that, being answerable to the people who voted you in.
RUMINT is that the effort is close to getting pro-mega Sen Scott (FL) selected. Again, we are not out of the woods as there are enough RINOS roaming the Senate (and house too for that matter) that attempts to derail the Trump agenda will continue.
With republicans like this - who needs democrats.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that morale in the border patrol has skyrocketed knowing of trumps pick for border czar and that there reportedly a flood of retirees seeking to come back to aid in the cause of securing the border.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has ratified a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Russia. The pact obligates each side to provide immediate military assistance if the other is attacked. It also legally allows North Korean soldiers to engage in combat on Russian soil, specifically in regions like Kursk.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a new missile and drone attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
0/? S-300 ballistic missiles
106/110 Shahed drones (46 by regular air defense, 60 by electronic warfare)
Two UAVs left Ukraine via Belarusian airspace.
Ukraine drones attacked an oil depot in the Stary Oskol district of Belgorod region, according to Governor Gladkov. One tank caught fire, but the blaze was reportedly “quickly extinguished.”
Water level raise recorded at Vovcha river after suspected dam break at Kurakhove water reservoir. Ukrainian authorities have no access to the dam to asses the damage. Videos released on social media indicate that the dam, under Russian control, was partially breached with explosives.
Russian losses per 11/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1770 (!) men
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports now breaking thru on the start of Russia’s counteroffensive in the Kursk region. Note Ukrainian sources -
The 225th Assault Battalion reports about several large Russian mechanized assault in the Kursk region. It is reported that four of such attacks happened today, driving in columns, one after another.
The 95th Air Assault Brigade showed footage of a recently repelled Russian mechanized attack into Pogrebki, Kursk region.
An unsuccessful attempt by Russian forces to cross the Psel river in the Kursk region. After being noticed, they were immediately targeted by the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade.
The 33rd mechanized brigade fought back to a massive Russian attack. Russian forces were greeted with a rain of shells, bombs, and drone strikes. According to the brigade, 2 tanks and 6 armored vehicles were destroyed and 29 Russians were killed, with 19 more wounded.
The 46th Air Mobile brigade repelled a large Russian mechanized attack. Yesterday morning, 12 Russian armored vehicles appeared near Ukrainian positions. From the column, 3 tanks and 6 IFV’s were either destroyed or damaged. At the same time, three groups of Russian infantry tried to cross the river in rubber boats, they were quickly detected.
Russians have started attacking Dar’ino, geolocated footage confirmed. The direction of attack also confirms that Obukhovka, previously considered in a gray zone, or at least with partial AFU presence, is now Russian controlled.
OBSERVATION - Many of these reports have videos associated with them. Russian forces continued with their brute force style of attacks that lends to them being stopped with heavy losses. Charging tanks and armor in single file columns, many times into minefields and caught at choke points. As noted above, the estimated losses yesterday were over 1770 men, most associated with the Kursk attacks.
Also, videos show that the soils are becoming increasingly wet and muddy.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces continue to press the attack along the line south of Pokrovsk.
Summary —
The big show is developing in the Kursk region. Russia reportedly has massed 50K troops including as many as 11K North Korean forces. Early into the counter offensive but initial review indicates Russia continues to use poor tactics, preferring to simply rush as Ukraine positions, hoping to get close enough to initiate close attack. This has been successful on rare occasions, but more times than not it has resulted in heavy losses and the assaults being blunted. Even with the counter offensive, Ukraine has reported making some gains in the region.
Ukraine’s efforts in Kursk may have left the focus in the Donbas short handed, suggested by Ukraine reports and some marginal gains by Russia. Videos posted on social media show soil conditions beginning to worsen with the advent of fall/winter rains. That will do more to halt offensive actions than the actual combat in many ways.
Russian still relying on large Shahed attacks. Enough get thru due to overwhelmed ADA assets to score some damage. No signs of let up.
Europe / NATO General –
Reports that the head of Nato warned Trump that if the US abandons Ukraine, nato will kick the US out FOUND TO BE FAKE - came from Russian sources.
***
Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema announces she will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow with representatives from the city’s mosques in an attempt to stop the pogroms and riots in the city.
Anti-Israeli violence growing in many other parts of Europe. Especially France and England.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- US deadline for increased aid to Gaza has passed, no word on if US will impose threatened embargo.
- 3 strongly pro-Israeli members to the Trump cabinet were announced.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz says Iran’s nuclear sites are more vulnerable than ever, following Israel’s airstrikes on its air defense sites. “Iran today is more exposed than ever to damage to its nuclear facilities,” he said. “There is a possibility to achieve the most important goal, to thwart and remove the threat of annihilation from hanging over the State of Israel.”
“There will be no ceasefire in Lebanon. We will continue striking Hezbollah until they are disarmed beyond the Litani River and the safety of northern residents is ensured.”
***
The main UN aid agency in Gaza says Israel has failed to meet a US deadline to boost aid to the territory or risk a reduction in American military aid.
Last month, in a strongly worded letter, the US secretary of state gave Israel an ultimatum of 30 days to ensure more aid trucks reached Gaza daily. The deadline expires on Tuesday.
The amount of aid getting into Gaza is at its lowest level in a year, the UN says. A UN-backed report recently warned that there was an imminent likelihood of famine in northern Gaza, where hardly any aid has entered in the past month.
Israel says it has substantially increased the amount of aid getting into Gaza, and accuses aid agencies of failing to adequately distribute it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rl0v76nxyo
NOTE - UNRWA refuses to acknowledge that Hamas routinely hijacks these shipments and sells them on the black market. As much as 50% get stolen.
***
Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, in a briefing to the foreign press, stated: “Progress has been made in the negotiations for a ceasefire in Lebanon; however, the main challenge that remains is the enforcement of the agreements. The Russians in Syria can help stop the rearming of Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s missile capabilities were severely damaged and mostly destroyed, but the war against the terrorist organization is not over.”
***
Reuters quoting the Israeli Finance Minister: I have issued instructions to prepare for extending sovereignty over the West Bank
***
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated on November 11 that there has been “certain progress” in ceasefire talks to end the fighting in Lebanon. Iranian politicians are continuing to coordinate politically with the Lebanese government.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Intense fighting reported west of Gaza City. Repeated targeting of the Sudanese area, Intelligence and the North, coinciding with intense artillery shelling and gunfire
***
In an IDF operation targeting a major Hamas stronghold in Jabalia, northern Gaza, over 1,100 terrorists were eliminated, and more than 1,000 terrorists have surrendered. Approximately 64,000 local residents left the area. The IDF anticipates securing full control within 48 hours
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF hammered S Beirut almost continually overnight. Tyre region also heavily hit.
Yesterday Hezbollah launched nearly 200 launches towards northern Israel.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. CENTCOM forces conducted strikes against nine targets in two locations associated with Iranian groups in Syria in response to several attacks on U.S. personnel in Syria over the last 24 hours.
Syrian media is reporting airstrikes in the Deir Ezzor area of eastern Syria targeting sites belonging to Iran-backed militias. At least one militia member was killed and several others were injured, according to the reports
***
Initial reports of a U.S. precision-airstrike on a vehicle containing Senior Houthi Officials in the Al-Bayda Governorate of Western Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Over the last few days, Jews have been hunted down in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Belgium.
Leftists and Islamists in England are now planning the same.
***
Arab and Muslim leaders demanded on Monday that Israel withdraw from occupied Palestinian territories as a precondition for regional peace, while denouncing “shocking” Israeli crimes in war-ravaged Gaza.
A summit meeting in the Saudi capital gave the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation’s 57 nations a chance to speak with one voice on turmoil unfolding across the region, more than a year into the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.
It came less than a week after Donald Trump secured a second term as president of the United States, Israel’s top military backer.
The summit’s closing statement said that “a just and comprehensive peace in the region... cannot be achieved without ending the Israeli occupation of all occupied Arab territories to the line of June 4, 1967,” referring to the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem as well as Gaza and the Golan Heights.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-arabs-gaza/2024/11/11/id/1187591/#ixzz8rJTYRemc
***
Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., has accepted President-elect Donald Trump’s offer to be his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, the New York Post reported Monday morning.
Trump is expected to nominate Republican Senator Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State.
The next U.S. National Security Advisor, Congressman and former Green Beret, Michael Waltz - TOUGH on terrorism and a great friend to Israel.
NOTE - All three are very pro-Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Trump’s selection of Stefanik for UN ambassador, Rubio as Sec State and Waltz as Nat’s Scty Advisor is huge in the ongoing middle east wars. Strongest, pro-Israel grouping seen in decades. Also serves notice to Iran that its days may well be numbered.
Israel only has to survive the next couple months of the lame duck biden regime’s efforts to undermine Israel’s efforts to free itself from the constant threat of annihilation by Islamic forces lead by Iran.
The arab league meetings denounced Israel and demanded to go back to 1967 borders for any ‘peace’ However, in a put down to Iran, they didn’t state any measures with which to accomplish this. Read more as rhetoric than anything very deep.
In this light, eyes are still on Iran and what its response will be to the Israeli strike. With each day it seems the consequences for any attack grow. One view may be to try something before biden is out of office, trying to rely upon US inability to respond, perhaps even with a Gaza based embargo in place. I think israel has the means available to respond with minimal US support - meaning a lot of Iran could be smoldering.
One item that seems to have slipped thru is the Iranian report of its testing one of its newer ballistic missiles. Note that about a week before its attack on Israel, they did some missile testing as well. May be unrelated, but then a lot of intelligence is the recognition of patterns, and this could potentially be one of those patterns developing.
Hezbollah senior leadership and structure continues to be destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. That is working its way down to the tactical level.
Israel’s progress in the south seems very slow, because it is. Decades of Hezbollah preparation for the Big One have to be reduced for onward movements. Mostly Hezbollah relies on hit and run attacks which Israel is far better equipped to deal with than they were in 2006.
In Gaza, it appears the latest operations in N Gaza are wrapping up, with over 2000 Hamas and affiliated terrorists either killed, wounded or captured. Action seems to be heating up in Central Gaza as Hamas tries to muster forces for another stand.
Finally, on an international basis, anti-Israel elements are ramping up attacks across Europe. Swamped with moslems, they are easily triggered against israel and Antifa elements are quickly mobilizing to join the developing chaos. Not a good time to be a Jew in Europe. My concern is that this could spread to the US in a large way early next year. I also see this as an alternative way Iran can attack Israel without launching missiles at it. It is known to be working behind the scenes to organize and fund these developing Pograms.