Globalism / Great Reset –
Concern is rising that the WHO is in the process of trying to accelerate the approval of the nefarious pandemic ‘treaty’.
The Intergovernmental Negotiating Body is scheduled to meet on Monday, November 11, 2024 to consider calling for a special session of the World Health Assembly in the hopes of adopting the proposed “Pandemic Agreement” BEFORE the end of 2024.
The INB will consider the determination of process for the convening, as appropriate, of a special session of the Health Assembly by the Executive Board, provided that agreement is reached on the draft WHO Pandemic Agreement.
Meeting agenda -
https://apps.who.int/gb/inb/pdf_files/inb12/A_inb12_2Rev1-en.pdf
Key item from the agenda - (Monday, Nov 11th)
“The INB will consider the determination of process for the convening, as appropriate, of a special session of the Health Assembly by the Executive Board, provided that agreement is reached on the draft WHO Pandemic Agreement.”
OBSERVATION - These meetings actually began Nov 4th. Failure to achieve agreement derailed the effort earlier this year.
The critical days are this upcoming week. The agenda states calling for a special session of the WHO to ratify the agreement - with not specific date. This conference was initiated and planned before the election, so they didn’t know who would be the winner at that time (though the globalists were betting on harris), now we know Trump won. Trump pulled us out of the WHO once before and this is front an center on the globalist bureaucrats in the WHO on this push for treaty modifications. Hence it would make sense that they would push the ratification of the agreement BEFORE he comes back into office - attempting to tie his hands so to speak.
CW2 / Domestic violence - HIGH THREAT - up dated Nov 5, 2024
Maintaining higher status in the face of a Trump victory
Thousands march in Midtown Manhattan as New York City law enforcement monitors. Protesters rally against fascism, deportation, anti-trans hate, and systemic oppression, expressing concerns over Donald Trump’s election as the 47th President. Chants of “Racist, sexist, anti-gay” and signs highlight their solidarity for marginalized communities.
Similar hybrid protests occurred in Seattle and Portland. In both, Antifa mobilized and dispersed into the crowds seeking opportunity to vandalize and damage property. In Seattle, local police closely monitored the movements of Antifa reportedly ready to move on them should they start violence.
OBSERVATION - These cities are common sites for protests like this. On the west coast Antifa is there for the ride and attempting to create mayhem hoping to encourage more to come out and eventually riot. I don’t think that will gain traction at this stage of the game.
With the rumored ‘informal discussions’ by some in the Pentagon over how they would respond to an order by Trump for military assistance in mass deportation, these protests could break out into something more widespread and violent. Should the deep state plants in our DoD and active military openly rebel against Trump, it could encourage Antifa et al to finally try to breakout along with the pro-illegal elements with pro-islam thrown in for good measure. This is one of the violence / CW2 trigger spots I’m watching closely.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
A civil war of sorts is ongoing in the democrat party over the harris loss and who’s to blame. How long this continues is unknown, probably until at least the next congressional term.
Another civil war of sorts is breaking out on the republican side of the senate where McConnell has called for a secret vote on his replacement. Two of McConnell’s trusted lieutenants — Senate Minority Whip John Thune, of South Dakota, the No. 2 Republican leader, and Sen. John Cornyn, of Texas, who previously held that role — as well as Sen. Rick Scott, a conservative from Trump’s home state of Florida, are all running to be Senate leader. Both Thune and Cornyn are open anti-Trumpers and would likely work to oppose Trump’s agenda, whereas Scott has been a supporter and a fighter against the rule of Schumer.
McConnell’s call for a vote also reportedly violates rules. He is trying to get the votes in BEFORE the new republican senators can come in and thwart his efforts - all elected with strong support from Trump.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports harris and biden staffs are having a monkey poo fight over the election loss.
Illegal Immigration –
Trump has announced the framework of his plans to begin deporting millions of illegals in country.
Russia -
*****
(Reuters) -Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law a treaty on the country’s strategic partnership with North Korea which includes a mutual defence provision, according to a decree published on Saturday.
The accord, signed by Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June after a summit in Pyongyang, calls on each side to come to the other’s aid in case of an armed attack.
OBSERVATION - This benefits NK more than it does Russia. It does serve to force increased US attention on the Korean peninsula.
Logistics –
November 9, 2024: Russian forces in Ukraine have, over the last few months, been suffering ammunition shortages and increasingly unreliable railroad deliveries. Part of the reason for this was the August 2nd Ukrainian attack into Kursk province. The Ukrainians destroyed several key bridges during their incursion and Russia has not been able to assemble the materials and manpower to make repairs. The Russian railroad system is also in bad shape. Over two years of economic sanctions sidelined hundreds of locomotives and reduced track and signal system maintenance. One thing that increased was Ukrainian sabotage efforts against Russian railroads. The sabotage is often carried out by Russians fed up with Putin’s foolish and costly war. Russia has been arresting, prosecuting and jailing some of these saboteurs. This does not appear to diminish the number of sabotage incidents.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htcbtsp/articles/2024110902022.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Russian Personnel Issues –-
See discussion under Ukraine below
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
RUMINT –
50,000 Russian and North Korean troops are reportedly preparing to launch a counteroffensive in the Kursk region in the coming days, reports NYT
OBSERVATION - Russian has launched several counteroffensives over the past three month with very limited success. I am skeptical that the NK forces will participate in any significant manner because of challenges integrating into the Russian force structure and command. However, retaking the Kursk terrain has been a thorn in putin’s side and he has reported made numerous demands of his military to retake it. The resource drain will be large.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched record 145 Shahed-type drones overnight Out of 145, 129 were taken down (62 regular, 67 electronic warfare). Another 10 left Ukrainian airspace in the direction of Russia, Belarus and Moldova.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims 14 drones were destroyed over Bryansk region tonight.
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at 1060 center of technical supply/former 120th Arsenal in Bryansk with drones. Videos posted to social media show a very large fires on the site as apparently some drones managed to get thru.
Ukraine drones also targeted the urban districts of Ramenki, Domodedovo and Kolomna, south east of Moscow with Russian claims of 17 drones shot down. Zhukovsky and Domodedovo airports were temporarily closed.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Vovchenka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Maryinka Axis-
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Avdiivka -
Kupyansk axis -
Kharkiv Front -
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Crimean front —
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian Territory –
Partisan Resistance ——
Summary —
Below is a summary of the past months war efforts produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and it tracks observations I’ve been making -
(ISW). Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometers during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024.
UK Defense Secretary John Healey told Telegraph on Nov. 9 that UK defense intelligence estimates that Russian casualties “reached a new high” in Oct. 2024 & that Russian forces suffered an average daily casualty rate of 1,345 troops per day or ~41,980 casualties in Oct. 2024.
The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD), citing data from the Ukrainian General Staff, previously reported that Russian forces suffered a record-high average daily casualty rate of 1,271 troops per day or about 38,130 casualties in September 2024.
Data compiled by Oryx founder @Rebel44CZ indicates that Russian forces also lost 197 tanks, 661 armored personnel carriers (APCs), and 65 artillery systems larger than 100mm throughout the frontline in September and October 2024.
Russian forces seized and recaptured a total of 1,517 square kilometers—an area less than a third the size of Delaware—throughout Ukraine and Kursk Oblast over the last two months in exchange for these losses.
Russian forces have intensified offensive operations near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast and Selydove, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in Donetsk over the last two months and have managed to advance at a marginally faster rate than Russian forces have advanced over the last two years.
Russian forces recently seized Vuhledar and Selydove but have yet to make operationally significant advances, and Russian forces have made most of their advances during this time through open fields and small settlements.
Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains
MY NOTES - Sept and Oct losses were substantially higher than the base line of losses prior to Sept - approx 30,000 / month. Thus this is about a 25% increase in casualties. Russian replacement efforts have been in the 30K range still, so they are operating at a substantial deficit in bodies alone. All this to capture an area a third of the size of Delaware.
This is where we see the efforts to bring N Korean soldiers to the front, to make up this difference. However, integration of these units into the Russian military command will not be the easiest and could result in wholesale wipe out of NK units unfamiliar with terrain, comms or command structure. Thus at this stage I seem them as more like Russia border guards - freeing those guards up to the front.
The arrival of Trump back to the scene, Russia is even more desperate to capture as much land as possible, an will continue to press hard until the muds settle in or they loss too much combat capability from all the losses - which ever comes first.
IN RELATED - the RUMINT of a large counteroffensive in the Kursk region is to be monitored. For it to be successful, it will require a lot of resources, resources that would have normally gone to units fighting in the Donbas. IF Russia decides to place its NK elements into combat, nearly 20% of the force will be NK. Unlike the Russian forces which likely have some combat experienced elements, the NK forces have never been tested in combat and could result in a major defeat for the Russian effort.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Qatar reportedly kicks Hamas out of the country
- Netanyahu talks with President-elect Trump.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
(Ynet) The Israeli Defense Ministry purchased 134 D9 bulldozers for the IDF, but the U.S. has been blocking the deal for months due to protests over their use in demolishing Palestinian homes in Gaza.
Security officials state, “The D9s are worn out from operations, and we need them for Lebanon as well. This silent embargo endangers IDF troops, especially from explosives.” The U.S. Embassy responded, “The requests are under regular review.”
***
Netanyahu: “I spoke to President-elect Donald Trump three times last week. They were very good and productive conversations. We will not allow these atrocities to repeat themselves. Trump and I see eye to eye on the Iranian threat.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
IDF continues to tighten the noose around Jabalia district in N Gaza. In the past month since the current operation started, IDF reports it has captured over 900 terrorists and killed hundreds of others in the current op.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel prepares to deepen its ground operations in Lebanon.
(ISW). The IDF continued clearing operations and its air campaign, targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities and infrastructure in Lebanon.
Hezbollah conducted at least 22 rocket attacks into Israel
More heavy airstrikes on S Beirut and Tyre.
IDF continues to capture huge caches of arms and supplies. Tens of thousands ATGM, RPG and other heavy weapons, tons of ammo of all kinds, etc.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army targets vehicle in airstrike on Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria.
3 Israeli air raids on the Jarmash and Qalad al-Sabaa areas on the Lebanese-Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley, eastern Lebanon
Reports in Syria that 4 Syrian officers have been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Syria on a radar system and an air defense system
In another attack in northern Syria that was attributed to Israel overnight, the headquarters of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces was attacked. In the past, military equipment that was transferred to Radwan in Lebanon was stored in those headquarters, and a number of Hezbollah operatives were also killed in the attack. Contrary to reports in Syria, no targets of the Assad army were attacked tonight.
Israel shot down drones launched from Syria overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli forces during their raid on the town of Sa’ir, northeast of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reports coalition aircraft (US and UK) have targeted a number of Houthi weapons systems and storage site in and just outside of Sana’a in the west of the country.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egyptian Foreign Minister confirms to Palestinian Prime Minister Egypt’s position rejecting any Israeli attempts to displace Palestinians
Qatar told Israel, Hamas and the U.S. it is suspending its mediation efforts on the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal because of the unwillingness of the parties to negotiate seriously, a diplomatic source said
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
It is as if Trump’s return has sucked the air out of Iran’s threatened retaliatory strike on Israel. Some of the red lights are backing off to yellow at this time. There is still a high probability of an attack, but the risks to Iran have just gone up an order of magnitude.
Hezbollah continues to have its command, intelligence and munitions centers decimated by IAF strikes. The Dahieh district in S Beirut was often called a country within a country - stronghold for Hezbollah and an area that they warned Israel to never attack. Today, Israel attacks it with no repercussions. Israel also continues to take out Hezbollah leaders across the board. Many are replacement for the replacements Israel has already taken out. This constant stress is preventing Hezbollah to organize resistance at a strategic level.
Israel makes preparations to push further north into Lebanon. In the past few days Israel has detonated large Hezbollah installed minefields covering hundreds of acres. Hezbollah forces in the south continue essentially hit and run efforts to keep from being decisively engaged - which means death to the terrorists.
The current operation in N Gaza is beginning to wind down. Elements of Hamas attempting to reconstitute itself have been deeply hit. The intelligence eyes of Israel is working to keep the rest of Gaza under surveillance and identify early regrouping of Hamas et al elements for quick targeting.
The delay in shipping D9 bull dozers to Israel may be the first in the threatened stoppage of war materials from the US because the US believes Israel is not letting enough humanitarian aid into the territory. We will know this week if the biden regime is going to carry out its threats to cut off some military aid.
Iran –
Iranian Foreign Minister says that Iran has no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons and denies U.S. allegations that it planned to assassinate Trump.
OBSERVATION - Some are noting that Iran is seemingly backpedaling fast from nuclear threats and assassination threats by the IRGC. In Trump’s first term, he called off a massive military strike because he believed the cost of innocent lives would be too high. I don’t think that will stop him this time if necessary. Some in Iran know this.
Misc of Note –
Some more of my muddled meanderings.
The landslide election of Trump can be likened in some ways to the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union (noting that the fall of the Berlin Wall is being remembered this week- I remember well, I was stationed in Germany at the time). Here is a good opportunity to apply your good friend - the OODA loop - to use.
The Good
1 Immediate rioting threat is minimized short term, but not long term
2 Lawfare against Trump withdrawing on a federal level as well now looking more on a state level as well.
3 Democrats are disorganized and fighting among themselves.
4 On a global stage, the wars in Ukraine and middle east are beginning to feel the effects of the landslide shockwave.
5. Many in the deep state are preparing their retirement plans to jump ship before Trump takes office.
6. Free speech and information have won for now. Trump now may threaten entities like the EU if they try to impose their censorship on US based social media like “X”.
The Bad
1 The MSM and associated talking heads are resuming their anti-trump and even facist/nazi drumbeats.
2. Some elements in the Pentagon considering ways to defy Trump orders
3. By the time the next term of congress starts, democrats will have their homes in some semblance of order again.
4 Anti Trump senatorial Republicans are trying to negate his agenda via new leadership filling the resignation of McConnell.
The UGLY
1 The economy is still on shaky legs. Hopes for deregulation are high but may not come in time to stop a serous recession that the dems can blame on Trump.
2 Deportation may trigger national riots bigger than seen with Floyd in 2020. Groups like Antifa have spent the past four years doing deeper organizing in preparation for a second round of major riots.
3 Terror associated with Deportation riots.
4 US military openly splits and some elements rebel against any Trump order to assist in the deportation (or associated riots) in any way. This may allow any riots to intensify
5 The WEF / globalists will continue their efforts in compliant countries such as Australia, Canada and the European Union, looking to counter any influence Trump may have internationally until they can maneuver a favorable govt back into the US.
6 The persistent threat of a false flag event that could allow the current regime to negate the election results in some manner.
These are early stages of the “OBSERVE” and “ORIENT” parts of the OODA loop. Just like with the fall of the Iron Curtain, there has been a dynamic shift in the current status quo and we need to be prepared for the aftershocks because the leftist / globalist powers that be will not simply roll over when they got this close to completing their conversion of the US into essentially another communist entity.
I encourage you to do your own OODA analysis of current events. My early conclusions are that we are not out of the woods yet and that there are greater challenges still to come.
Since it could end up violating the Nuremberg Code, will that allow an out for us if we should be betrayed by the elitists.
The leftists are too quiet at the moment.
I makes me wonder what they’re planning.
Happy Veterans day to my fellow vets in America.
Somewhat of a short report today, seems that the world is taking a little breather.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The California Air Resources Board on Friday night approved new clean air standards that are expected to raise gas prices— a proposal that faced fierce criticism from lawmakers for the board’s lack of transparency on its cost to consumers and also from environmental groups who said it doesn’t do enough to reduce air pollution.
OBSERVATION - Estimated to raise the price of gasoline between 47 - 65 cents per gallon it will hammer the state’s economy already suffering from the highest prices in the nation. It will not be confined there as kalifornia is oversized in interactions with the rest of the nation. Products from kalifornia will increase in price along with the gasoline prices.
The new rule is suppose to make kalifornia on track to meet its 2030 air pollution reduction goals.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 26th
Growing anger by Trump supporters over the secret meeting to elect a future Senate Majority leader. Insider notes that anti-trumpers Thune and Conyren are leading Trump supporter Rick Scott. McConnell sees Thune and Conyren as his follow ons. The secretes of the meeting is to ‘protect’ the senators from the blowback from their votes. At this stage it is apparent that McConnell is going to be able to jam the meeting thru and have his people in place for when he retires.
Vote is reportedly scheduled for Wednesday - time to light up the Capitol switchboard folks.
Illegal Immigration –
President-elect Donald Trump says Tom Homan, his former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director, will serve as “border czar” in his incoming administration.
OBSERVATION - This guy is a pit bull, take no prisoners kind of guy who will take no crap off liberals. Good to put him as czar versus department head, he won’t have to be distracted by bureau business and can move ahead with business.
Russia -
*****
President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and advised him not to escalate the Ukraine war, a source familiar with the conversation said, but the Kremlin on Monday denied the two had spoken.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-40s with scattered showers and rain in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 39 of 74 Shahed-type and unidentified drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles. Predomantly residential buildings/homes were hit.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Reports of Ukraine advances in the northern portion of the salient. No firm info on the reported Russian counter offensive.
Summary —
Fighting continues to be tough in the Donbas region, but there seems to be a noticeable slowdown in Russian attacks.
Russia is maintaining the large Shahed drone attacks across Ukraine. Overnight, alerts went out that elements of the Russian Strategic bombers command had flown to traditional cruise missile launch points, but no missiles were reported going into Ukraine. Could be a lead up to a much larger combined drone and missile attack.
Europe / NATO General –
Unconfirmed reports that the head of Nato warned Trump that if the US abandons Ukraine, nato will kick the US out. Currently, this report is trending unlikely and unsupported. I concur with the trend, I really can’t think they would be that stupid.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Cyber attack on credit card/ATMs systems.
- Mobilization has begun for deeper pushes into S Lebanon
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Iran has claimed responsibility for a major cyberattack on credit card systems in Israel today, which disrupted numerous ATMs and credit card readers nationwide.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
The Israeli army announces the expansion of the humanitarian zone in Gaza, which includes field hospitals that were established since the beginning of the war, in addition to tent complexes and shelter materials, in addition to quantities of food, water and medicine, in addition to medical supplies
Word is some elements of Hamas are willing to support the rule of Fatah over what’s left of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has fired a barrage of up to 50 rockets towards predominately arab regions of N Israel.
Israeli army repeats evacuation warning for villages in southern Lebanon.
Israeli army chief approves expansion of ground operation in Lebanon; thousands of Israeli forces expected to be mobilized, will move into more areas in Lebanon to uproot Hezbollah presence.
Rumors from leaked peace proposals over Russian participation to prevent resupply of Hezbollah from Syria.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel targeted a missile warehouse in the southern Homs countryside.
Al Hadath Sources: The Israeli raid on the Sayyida Zeinab area in Damascus today targeted Ali Musa Daqduq, Hezbollah’s Golan file official. He was killed along with other senior commanders.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A missile attack has targeted the US military base in the Green Village at the Al-Omar oil field in Syria’s Deir ez-Zor, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News reported, citing its correspondent in Damascus
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The watch on Iran for the missile strike on Israel continues. At this stage I wouldn’t say it is off the board, but it does appear that Iran is taking second and third looks at their plans.
One thing weighing could be that if Iran hits in a manner that triggers a US response, and that response by biden is underwhelming, there is nothing that says that Trump can’t revisit it and take action to finish the job. There is a lot of US firepower in the region, even without a carrier CSG. Add to this, Israel is feeling further empowered to take out Iranian nuke and oil facilities in response. Clearly, many new variables having to be crunched by Iranian mission planners.
In Lebanon, the ground war is getting set to move northward with call up of reserve forces. The extent of the Hezbollah fortification of border villages Israel has taken is nearly unbelievable, with underground bunkers said to be capable of holding battalions worth of soldiers and vast amounts of weapons and ammunition. It has taken a lot of time to clear these fortifications out.
Many OSINT analysts are noting that Israel’s continued hammering of the Hezbollah chain of command has made coordinating a defense in S Lebanon very difficult.
Israel has intensified interdiction of supplies entering Lebanon from Syria, in the northern Bekka valley region. Hezbollah has attempted to disguise the effort at humanitarian aid, but the secondary explosions say otherwise.
In Gaza, clearance operations continue to kill and capture dozens of remaining Hamas and affiliated terrorists daily. Israel continues to reinforce its control of the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border, shutting off smuggling of supplies to Hamas from there. All Hamas has left are residuals of buried supplies not yet found and destroyed by Israel. Hamas is so desperate that it now appears that they are willing to allow Fatah to control Gaza.
Internationally, the Pogrom developing in Europe is forcing countries to more aggressively protect Jews during the current soccer tournaments. Netanyahu reportedly has told the Mossad to ‘make plans’ to not only identify and take out the organizers of the violence, but to protect Jews as necessary in absence of local police. About 2000 were evacuated from Amsterdam in 10 passenger jets and returned to Israel in the past few days. Hostile arabs, most likely bankrolled by Iran, are the culprits.