Countdown going big - 10 days out from election day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
EU President Ursula von der Leyen just joined the ranks of former Senator John Kerry and other globalist ghouls in declaring war on free speech by perversely proclaiming that the EU citizenry needs to be “vaccinated against disinformation.”
Like every censor in history, she characterizes her censorship program as a means of expunging erroneous information and ideas from public discourse. By using the word “disinformation,” she implies that she and her clique are already the sole possessors of the truth about everything, and that everyone who has and shares heterodox ideas is necessarily in error.
https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/eu-president-likens-free-speech-to
OBSERVATION - The upcoming year appears to be one of renewed censorship by the global elite of the WEF. The growing epicenter will be the US of A - especially if harris is elected. clinton and kerry have spilled the beans on that point - the globalists want to shut down free speech and the associated free thought and want it badly. Tyranny cannot stand in the face of challenges via free speech and thought.
Historical roots of our 1st Amendment go right back to British efforts to censor the speech of colonists at the time. Ben Franklin and others went underground with printing presses to counter the censorship. Same with the other components of the 1st - insuring the violations experienced under British rule are not repeated. We so quickly forget our history.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
An example of the explosive emotions of the harris/leftists. Viral is a video of a harris supporter getting into the face of a young child and shouting obscenities at her following a rally. It was so bad that another harris supporter had to intervene and push her away.
Since 2016, if one tracks the violence by the left, they almost always try to isolate the weakest and most vulnerable like a pack of wolves. Saw it in the 2016 attacks by leftist mobs on Trump rally attendees, same in 2020 spinoff of the floyd riots and encouragement from democrat leaders to get into the faces of republicans.. This nasty piece of work’s attack on a child is just a furtherance of the attitude. I am expecting more like this as the week progresses and increasing if trump wins.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
It is being reported that California is on the precipice of losing two more major refineries that produce 14% of the state’s gasoline due to suffocating regulation.
Valero may shut down its two California refineries, according to Just The News. This is in addition to Phillips 66 who recently announced the closure of its Los Angeles refinery, accounting for 8% of the state’s refining capacity, following the passage of the new legislation.
OBSERVATION - While the biggest, most visible impacts will be Kalifornia gasoline prices, the rest of the nation will feel some of pain thru increased prices for food and other goods that come out of it.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
***
Color me skeptical, but don’t believe at face value news that harris’ campaign is in disarray and coming apart at the edges. Keep fighting.
***
Things getting interesting in NYC - - Mayor Eric Adams told reporters he does not believe former President Trump is a fascist, while defending the Republican presidential nominee the day before a major rally at Madison Square Garden. “I’ve heard those terms hurled at me by some political leaders in the city, using terms like Hitler and fascist,” Adams said. “My answer is no. I know what Hitler has done, and I know what a fascist regime looks like.”
***
In a surprise ruling, a unanimous panel from the Fifth Circuit ruled against the state of Mississippi and invalidated a law allowing ballots to take up to five days after an election to be received and counted, at least in elections involving federal office.
OBSERVATION - Article notes limited immediate impact and that the decision likely will not go forward until after this election. It does set precedent that has a very good chance of reaching the USSC for final decision.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala got booed after tricking everybody into thinking Beyoncé was gonna perform at her Friday rally in Houston. Many got up and left without listening to her. Additional reports that she was heckled over the course of her speech.
Beyonce spoke for a few minutes in support of harris, then departed. It is also being reported that she was paid millions of dollars for the appearance.
Typical lefties, wanting free stuff and grousing when they don’t get it.
More chaos from the Houston rally - At the Houston Kamala Harris rally, she brought out abortion doctors wearing white lab coats.
But when someone in the audience was in need of medical assistance, Harris’s abortion doctors looked around clueless.
“Medic! Medic! Medic!” people shouted as someone suffered a medical emergency.
All the doctors heads started spinning around looking for someone who can help.
These “doctors” trained only to KILL, and not to heal. . . . . . .
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed attack overnight.
Out of 80 Shahed drones, 73 were taken down both by mobile air defense and electronic warfare. One drone flew back to Belarus.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Some reports of Russian set backs in their counter attacks in the western areas of the salient. Getting overextended and then pinched off by Ukrainian attacks.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Izmailivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Russian Territory –
Governor of Tambov region reported fire in Michurinsk district as result of drone strike, in total 11 drones recorded
A fire broke out at the Transneft-Druzhba oil dispatch station in Novonikolskoye, Tambov region, following a reported Ukrainian UAV strike
Outlook —
Continued fierce fighting in the Donbas region, particularly along the front south of Pokrovsk.
Too early to tell just how much of an impact the probable loss of a Iranian missiles and drones will be in the long term. In the short term unlikely impact as there are stores in Russian ammo dumps, but it becomes a factor that will trouble Russian planners over the course of the next year.
Belarus -
Not always noted, but Russian Shahed drones continually end up in Belarus.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - The Georgian opposition rejects the parliamentary election results and announces protests.
“We are outraged by what the Central Commission dared to publish. These results do not reflect the will of the Georgian people,” says Anna Dolidze, leader of Strong Georgia.
Prominent NGOs who observed the election also refuse to recognize the results, which show the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party with 54.24% after 97% of votes counted.
OBSERVATION - This is one of the countries Russian instigated revolts in adjacent states and instituted controls as Russia territories, much like Transnistria and portions of Ukraine. Uncertain what level of civil strife will result though limited violence is not out of the picture. Control of Georgia will grant Russia more control over the Black Sea region as well as project more power into the Caucus Region.
***
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has called on European countries to invest more in defense and measures to contain the threat from Russia.
“I am prepared to expect everything from Putin. It is time for us to grow up. Putin is a dictator who only understands force,” she said.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Evidence that Israel has crippled Iran’s ballistic program by eliminating capability to produce solid fuels.
- Hamas rejects latest ceasefire offer.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Post Strike Review for Operation “Days of Repentance”
Bottom line up front - It is apparent that even though the strike was less extensive than anticipated, Israel didn’t waste any ammo on random targets, but surgically (most applicable term I can think of) hit key components of Iran’s ballistic missile development, and modern ADA systems defending critical sites. The this has reportedly caused considerable concern to rise among Iranian leaders.
Iranian Missile Program Impacts - -
Both of Iran’s main facilities for the production of solid-fuel used in long-range ballistic missiles, the Khojir and Parchin military complexes near Tehran, suffered significant damage. The IDF strike on the Khojir complex comes after the regime began expanding the facilities there in August 2023 in order to increase the Iranian capacity to build missiles (for Russia). Specifically targeted were the buildings containing the large, solid fuel mixers necessary to produce the propellent for ballistic missiles. All 12 planetary mixers known to be at the site appear to have been destroyed. These mixers are expensive, take a long time to make and are under strict import controls.
Iran will need to buy new mixers from China. Doing so could take months or possibly a year or more, hampering Iran’s ability to replenish its missile stockpiles and those of its allies. Add to that the construction of replacement buildings and associated equipment/facilities for those mixers. Some estimate that it will take at least two years for Iran to be able to build ballistic missiles again.
This loss of production will impact not only its missile program, but the agreement with Russia to supply missiles for the Ukraine war.
Nuclear Facility - -
Yes, there appears that Israel hit a nuclear related facility in its strike on Parchin. New satellite images show that Israel destroyed the critical flash x-ray testing equipment of Iran’s Taleghan (Parchin) nuclear test site. The facility was used in Iran’s Amad Plan for nuclear weapons. IAEA inspectors were not allowed to enter the site. This equipment is key for Iran to develop a nuclear warhead.
Iranian Air Defense impacts - -
Second announced goal of the air strikes was the targeting of Iran’s more advanced ADA missile systems - the S300 and S400 series - that are stationed at Iran’s most critical nuclear and oil facilities. According to an Israeli source; all of Iran’s 7-8 operational S-300 and S-300PMU2 Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries, as well as several other air defense systems (Old US Hawk and some Iranian knockoffs) near “Strategic Facilities” and along its western border, were targeted and suffered significant damage. These losses do not include the battery destroyed in Israel’s previous strike in April.
For all practical purposes, these key Iranian nuclear and oil facilities are now unprotected. The ability for Iran to replace these systems is very questionable. They may be able to scrap together some batteries based on what elements that managed to escape destruction. Support from Russia is expected to be extremely limited as it is facing critical shortages of these same systems due to the war with Ukraine.
These systems appear to have been useless against Israel weapons used in the strike as there have been no confirmed downing of any of the missiles used or aircraft.
Other Identified Target - -
A factory for drone production was also hit, impact to Iranian production not estimated yet.
***
Israeli PM Netanyahu in his first Public response to Israel strike in Iran: We damaged Iran’s defense capability and its ability to produce missiles aimed at us
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas has rejected Israel’s ceasefire offer, which included safe passage for Hamas men in exchange for hostages.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Army: We conducted airstrikes on 120 targets across Lebanon in the past 24 hours
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli air strikes on the Lebanese town of Al-Qasr near the Haj Mohammed border crossing with Syria
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The UN Security Council will convene at the request of Iran, after the Israeli attack. Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danon: Another attempt by Iran to harm us, this time in the political arena
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
See Iran below as they mull a response to the Israeli strike. Fundamentally, Israel’s attack can now be seen as a preparatory strike that would enable a much more severe hit on nuclear and oil facilities at a future date. Iran couldn’t stop the recent attack, now it has virtually no air defense to stop another.
As noted yesterday, if there is another cycle of strike / counter strike, it will most likely occur after the election and Israel will have a far freer hand in what it targets - especially if trump wins.
Even though Iran vowed an ‘immediate’ response, there are no indicators of such at this stage. Those realizing the enhanced vulnerability of Iran vs those radical islamists who want a war are dealing with each other now.
Gaza continues under Israel’s methodical operations to eliminate remnants of Hamas and associated groups.
Hezbollah continues to be hammered by Israeli forces from the air and on the ground. The massiveness of some of the discovered Hezbollah underground facilities is incredible - especially in comparison to those made by Hamas. In one instance, shortly after the Israeli strike on Iran, demolition explosion of one base registered on Israeli seismographs, triggering an earthquake alert in N Israel.
For the immediate future, Iran will lick its wounds and try to figure out another way to go after Israel without triggering a near apocalyptic response that will take out its nuclear and oil facilities. Add to this a power struggle to replace Khamenei.
Israel will refocus on Gaza and Lebanon, while doing BDA and after action reviews of the attack on Iran and sharpen its target list should another attack be necessary (which may very well be likely)
Iran –
Iran is at a series of crossroads following the Israali strike and their choices are not favorable The first is in regards to a retaliatory strike -
“Israel’s attack on Iran deepens the war in the Middle East. Avoiding, or risking, an even worse escalation is at the heart of decisions being taken by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his key advisors.
They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens.
At the other is deciding to draw a line under the destructive exchanges of direct strikes on their respective territories. The risk for Iran if it holds its fire is that looks weak, intimidated and deterred by Israel’s military power and political determination, backed up by the United States.
In the end, the supreme leader and his advisers are likely to take the decision that, in their view, does least harm to the survival of Iran’s Islamic regime.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo
The second is breaking news that there are reports that Iran’s supreme leader, 85 years old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was diagnosed with advanced cancer. This may spark an internal battle for succession. His second oldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei, likely to succeed him when he dies.
(New York Times)
Response to Israel, combined with a major change in leadership will occupy Iran’s train of thought for a while. Other fallout may be the renewed push for a nuclear bomb - currently ‘blocked’ by Khamenei.
***
The Iranian news agency Tasnim: The parliament in Tehran is holding a closed-door debate on the issue of the Israeli attack this weekend
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign affairs:
“Iran considers itself entitled and obliged to defend against acts of external aggression.”
Iran’s top diplomat has condemned Israel’s unprecedented attack on multiple military sites across the Islamic Republic and has asserted Tehran’s right to respond to the latest escalation amid a year-long Middle East conflict in a letter obtained by Newsweek.
The letter was attributed to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and sent Saturday to United Nations (U.N.) Secretary-General António Guterres and U.N. Security Council President Pascale Christine Baeriswyl via Iranian Permanent Representative to the U.N. Amir Saeid Iravani.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/iran-tells-un-attack-from-israel-must-not-go-unanswered/ar-AA1sZE9Y?ocid=BingNewsSerp
OBSERVATION - Looks like some elements are itching for more of a fight. These statements may be more for the consumption of the population though - keeping the face.
***
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday the US granted an aerial corridor to Israel’s air force for the Saturday’s operation in Iran. What he meant by ‘an air corridor’ is probably a mutually agreed flight path for Israeli fighter jets
Misc of Note –
In final stages of the preparations I can do should the country break and go sideways after the elections. This would be the culmination of over 15 years of work which initially focused on other potential disasters (mostly natural). The past several years the threat of severe civil unrest, societal breakdown and even civil war / martial law has moved to the top of the list. Never in my life did I think things would potentially go sideways in this manner.
Black Swans -
I am growing a little uneasy over the relatively quiet seismic front. There has in my daily unscientifically documented subjective view of activity, there appears to be a great deal of silence of magnitude 6+ earthquakes across the globe. In my memory, normally one drops every week or two. That just doesn’t seem to be happening over the past few months. Given our current political climate and economic shakiness , combined with the keystone cop response by FEMA to the recent hurricanes , a major quake in the US hot zones of S California, the Pacific NW or New Madrid zone could be devastating not only for the immediately affected region but the country as whole.
Again, this is just a gut feeling and I may be entirely wrong in my assessment. Just want folks to be cautious and not get too focused on the political at the expense of the natural.
This was the third quote I pulled after dropping two others Today's thread is packed with good stuff. Just like we both feel 'something' is going on with 'the weather' (and NOT the John Kerry freak scenario which at best would really product a third of a degree change in a hundred years) but 'something' bigger and faster. This is similar. Sensing connections that exist but don't add up...
Countdown going big - 8 days out from election day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Climate Change Committee said in an ideal scenario, meat and dairy consumption should halve by 2050 and products be substituted with plant-based options.
The proposals are part of new net zero targets that have been recommended to Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/27/cut-meat-and-dairy-consumption-by-50-orders-ccc/
OBSERVATION - Though this is Britain, the same goals are being sought by elements here in the US as well. Britain just shows us what can happen in the next few years should govt leadership remain the same.
***
The World Health Organization is working to finalize the “Pandemic Agreement” by November 11, 2024 in the hopes of adopting it at a special session of the World Health Assembly in December.
OBSERVATION - This effort is trying to fly under the radar after failing to produce the agreement earlier this year. With most of the world’s attention fixed on Ukraine, Israel and the US election, its efforts are proceeding. There may be more urgency to complete this ‘agreement’ prior to Trump coming into office.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Oct 20, 2024
Considerable discussions continue concerning the September 27 DOD Directive 5240.1, which establishes the legal framework for the US military to conduct spying operations and use lethal force against US citizens in cooperation with local governments and law enforcement. The left is trying to down play the allowance for lethal actions while generally acknowledging the spying provisions. Another argument is that these things have always been written like this. Key item here is that the wording has enough wiggle room to allow lethal actions. The left has time and again exploited such language to push their goals forward. Overall, it requires vigilance and the removal of the language.
***
Democrats / leftists cranking up the Nazi hysteria to unbelievable levels following the massive Trump rally at MSG. MSNBC prominently equated the rally to a 1935 Nazi rally in the same location. “X” was flooded by hysterical leftists / harris supporters screaming about the Nazi’s coming.
What this is indicating to me is that the democrats are trying to energize and activate the more violent elements in their coalition and prepare them to act out in violence should Trump win. The whole “nazi” motif has worn thin lately from over use and poor application, thus the increased volume of the bleat.
IN RELATED - Walz traveled to Duke University in Durham, North Carolina on Thursday There he told students trump was going to round them all up.
The total outbreak of unreasonable fear mongering is also directed at preparing democrats for a loss and rally elements for violent challenges to the trump victory.
Folks, the crescendo of the cries is very concerning - trump wins, many will go into melt down mode and Floyd magnitude riots could break out.
On the republican side, there is a growing appearance that trump supporters will not back down to these riots should trump win or have the election stolen. There is a growing level of militancy of its own that I’ve seen developing that could breakout into true CW2 precursors of a hot conflict. As I’ve noted in the past, the current regime and the swamp could be pushing this scenario in order to justify a martial law scenario and an over turning of election results in that fashion.
Right now, the water seems calm, but a massive storm may be brewing just beyond the horizon.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
U.S. mortgage rates increased for a fourth straight week this week, suggesting the housing market could remain on the back foot for some time even as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.54% from 6.44% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.79% during the same period a year ago.
Mortgage rates initially fell in September, dropping to more than a 1-1/2-year low by the end of the month as the Fed began lowering rates.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-30-fixed-rate-mortgage-163123290.html
OBSERVATION - Article claims the ‘strength’ of the economy is what drove these rates higher - very doubtful of that reason.
***
Lines at food banks are growing longer in key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, according to NBC News.
“We have never seen this level of need in the 43 years we have been serving this community. It is significantly higher than during COVID and has pressed us beyond our capacity,” Ken Estelle, president of Feeding America West Michigan, told the news outlet.
“We’ve just seen this drumbeat increase every month of more people and more people.”
https://www.newsmax.com/us/swingstates-foodbanks-election/2024/10/26/id/1185545/
OBSERVATION - This is not evidence of a “strong” economy (see interest rates comment above).
***
(FO) According to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, Mississippi River shipping rates are 55% higher this year than the five-year average due to a third straight year of low water levels. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 83% of land in the Midwest is abnormally dry and 53% is currently in drought. Army Corps of Engineers Watershed Division deputy chief Drew Smith said the recent trend of dryness was preceded by a wet period that did not end until 2020.
OBSERVATION - Continued upward pressures on prices for the next 6 months or so.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
***
Color me skeptical, but don’t believe at face value news that harris’ campaign is in disarray and coming apart at the edges. Keep fighting.
***
Worst . . . Nazi . . . . Rally . . . . . EVER
See CW2 above - harris / leftist rantings reaching unbelievable levels suggesting a degree of desperation in the camp.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Reports that harris has prohibited biden from campaigning for her.
North/South Korea –
After consultations with South Korean intelligence officials, NATO chief Rutte offers alliance confirmation that North Korean troops are in Russia, specifically in the Kursk region, helping Moscow against Ukraine
Russia -
*****
The Russian site, called Sergiev Posad-6, had been quiet for decades, but it had a notorious Cold War past: It had once been a major research center for biological weapons, with a history of experiments with the viruses that cause smallpox, Ebola and hemorrhagic fevers.
Satellite imagery over the next two years — collected by Google Earth and commercial imaging firms Maxar and Planet Labs — shows construction vehicles renovating the old Soviet-era laboratory and breaking ground on 10 new buildings, totaling more than 250,000 square feet, with several of them bearing hallmarks of biological labs designed to handle extremely dangerous pathogens.
There has been no sign such weapons have been used in the Ukraine conflict, but the construction of new labs at Sergiev Posad-6 is being closely watched by U.S. intelligence agencies and bioweapons experts amid worries about Moscow’s intentions as the conflict grinds through its third year.
The images showed multiple signatures that, when combined, indicate a high-containment biological facility: dozens of rooftop air handling units, layouts consistent with partitioned labs, underground infrastructure, heightened security features and what appears to be a power plant.
OBSERVATION - Russia indicates its mission is to strengthen the country’s defenses against bioterrorism as well as future pandemics. However, such facilities can quickly switch over to offensive developments very quickly and easily.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 40-50s with scattered showers in the forecast.
RUMINT –
North Korean troops are approaching Russia-Ukraine frontlines, though reports suggest they’re not Kim Jong-un’s elite forces, WSJ claims. Intelligence shows many soldiers are young, likely malnourished and inexperienced and trained for mountainous terrain rather than Ukraine’s plains.
Estimates indicate around 3,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia this month, with some seen near Kursk. Former officials suggest Kim may be testing the waters with this deployment, potentially paving the way for more experienced troops if Russia needs reinforcements.
wsj.com
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 66 of 100 Russian strike drones launched overnight. Parts of two Ukrainian regions were without power after Russian drone strikes damaged local infrastructure, energy officials said Monday.
National grid operator Ukrenergo said it was forced to implement emergency cuts in parts of the northeastern Sumy and central Poltava regions following overnight attacks by Russian forces.
Ballistic missiles were also reported to have been launched by Russia.
Russian Telegram channels report an Ukrainian incursion attempt at Manev village of Bryansk region.
Crimean front —
Around 30 explosions were heard overnight in occupied Crimea, according to local residents. Approximately 20 blasts occurred in Dzhankoy district, with another 8 in Simferopol and Krasnohvardiiske.
Russian Territory –
Local authorities in Voronezh region claim 10 drones were shot down or intercepted over the region, but debris of one caused fire at the industrial enterprise (ethanol plant)
Partisan Resistance ——
Reportedly railway bridge was blown up in Berdyansk yesterday
Outlook —
Nothing really jumping out - still massive pressure in the Donbas, and reported Russian casualties continue to be at a rate nearly 40% higher than earlier this summer. Tank and armor losses have increased as well, reflecting the efforts by Russia to gain as much as they can before the winter mud season hits.
The West is still monitoring and evaluating the introduction of N Korean forces into the Ukraine theater. Still the most likely deployment zone is the Kursk sector, avoiding potential greater outcry if deployed into disputed Ukraine territory.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA -
Georgian President Zurabishvili rejects parliamentary election results, calling them “Russian elections” and declaring the current government illegitimate. An opposition rally is set for tomorrow at 7 PM.
- Georgian President has called on citizens to take to the streets in protest, refuses to recognize official election results — Politico
OBSERVATION - Increasing possibility of near civil war conditions developing.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Some growing concerns of a soon Iranian attack
- IDF makes gains in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued Post Strike Review for Operation “Days of Repentance”
Bottom line up front - It is apparent that even though the strike was less extensive than anticipated, Israel didn’t waste any ammo on random targets, but surgically (most applicable term I can think of) hit key components of Iran’s missile defense, and modern ADA systems defending critical sites. The this has reportedly caused considerable concern to rise among Iranian leaders.
3D Radar Site taken out -
Israeli army targeted a radar installation in the hills about 12km southwest of Ilam last Friday night . New satellite images from the Ilam radar site to the southwest show that the 3D radar, which is very essential for early warning and has the ability to detect up to 400 kilometers deep, was destroyed in the Israeli attack.
Ballistic Missile Program Damaged Further - -
A key facility at Iran’s secret missile testing base near Shahrud was destroyed in this strike. Sharoud missile complex is ~800 km from the Iraqi border northeast of Tehran close to the Iranian border with Turkmenistan.
Satellite Images show the destruction of the Site’s main missile casting building. The function of the casting building is where the solid fuel is placed into the rocket bodies and “casted” into place. Shahroud was both involved in the mass production of missile boosters (Kheybarshekan and Fattah 1) as well as in the IRGC’s ICBM hedging effort. Destruction of the central casting building should impede these programs substantially.
IAF Aircraft Now Reported to have Penetrated Into Iranian Airspace - -
Israeli Officials have told CNN, several of the over 100 Aircraft of the Israeli Air Force that participated in the Mission, entered Iranian airspace to conducted deep strikes against targets.
No word on which sites the aircraft targeted or how deeply into Iran they penetrated.
ADA Radars Affected - -
Unconfirmed Iranian reports that about 5 minutes prior to IAF strikes, Iranian radars ceased to “function”. Could represent advanced jamming by the IAF.
****************
In a highly irregular move, the government meeting planned for this morning was moved to a secret location on short notice, Israeli media reported.
Journalists speculated that the move might be connected to warnings of Iran trying to harm ministers or symbols of state after the Israeli strikes in Iran.
The meeting will not be held in its regular locations, like the Knesset in Jerusalem or the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. Only the ministers will be allowed to participate, without their advisers being present.
***
CNN this morning that the preliminary assessment in Israel based on intelligence and public statements is that Iran’s regime will respond to the Israeli strike on Saturday
If Iran retaliates on Saturday’s attack, Israel is expected to attack not only nuclear and energy sites, but also the regime’s top government sites, including the supreme leader.
Source: Maariv
***
U.S. President Biden’s Envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein has reportedly arrived in Tel Aviv, with him set to meet today with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Large numbers of Hamas and affiliated terrorists continue to surrender in N Gaza.
A report on the Saudi Al-Arabiya channel: Hamas refuses any proposal for a cease-fire without Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, including Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Some 90 rockets were launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon at northern Israel today, according to an Israeli army tally
***
Ground action in S Lebanon has picked up significantly. Significant IDF advances have been reported in the areas of Rmaich, Bint Jbeil, Meiss Ej Jabal, Rabb Et Talatine, and Naqura.
Below is a Lebanon map that depict how far IDF has penetrated into the region
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ga5ZNWXXUAAzWud?format=jpg&name=small
***
After over a year of launching aerial attacks against northern Israel, Hezbollah has reportedly begun to crack as the Iran-backed terror group has experienced a wave of desertions, sources told the Arabic independent online newspaper Elaph in a report published Sunday.
As a result of combatants abandoning their posts, Hezbollah is now reportedly struggling to communicate with its men on the ground. There are also fears that the defections, now mainly a phenomenon in southern Lebanon, will spread to terrorists throughout the country, the source claimed.
The confrontations on the southern border and escape by Hezbollah combatants have reportedly left the group struggling to recruit new terrorists to fuel its fight against Israel.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-826395
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iraq has filed an official complaint with the UN Security Council regarding Israel’s use of Iraqi airspace to strike Iranian targets last Saturday. The Iraqi government spokesperson stated that the complaint condemns Israel’s “flagrant violation” of Iraq’s airspace and sovereignty.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Rumblings across the news and the OSINT realm is the potential for an Iranian response as early as this weekend. Here are some thoughts I gleaned from the intewebs and X
According to Kann News; U.S. Officials believe that Iran maintains its ability to retaliate with the same force used during its October 1st attack against Israel, but that the scale and nature of their retaliation against Israel will likely be limited by Friday night’s strikes, which caused immense damage to Iran’s capacity to produce long-range ballistic missiles.
According to reports, Iran holds over 2,000 long-range ballistic missiles. The existing arsenal was not damaged—only the capability to produce new missiles (as reported, planetary mixers, etc.). This means that Iran will now operate on a limited munitions economy, as its current missile stockpile will not be able to grow in the near future (in the coming months or years).
Iran has these additional elements to factor in. This time, the Americans are expected to play a more significant role in defense and interception, thanks to the THAAD battery stationed in Israel and three ships equipped with AEGIS defense systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, which were also involved in intercepting the attack in early October. Israel for its part has had time to evaluate the operation of its Arrow and David’s Sling systems and address any shortcomings to increase the effectiveness of the defense.
Iran must also consider the Israeli response. If they attack this coming weekend, Israel can easily wait until after the election to execute its response. With American politics out of the way for the moment, Israel will be far more willing to hit Iranian nuclear and oil facilities - stripped of their air defenses (not that those defenses worked very well on Friday).
Right now, the Iranian promise of an “immediate” response combined with the rhetoric of making plans for another attack strongly indicate one is coming.
On other fronts, the reports of Hezbollah fighters in S Lebanon breaking and running have to be viewed through a potential propaganda lens, but the conditions in the field easily support such a situation. First, the forces in the south are not receiving the support from the north that was planned on. They are getting hammered. The second aspect is the fact that recent attacks on the Hezbollah banking network has dried up funds to pay the fighters. Getting the snot bombed out of you and not getting paid are two great incentives to stop fighting.
Second, IDF has increased the pace of terrain capture. This is something I expected once the border village defense network was fully breached.
Gaza continues to see Hamas and affiliated in the north surrendering in sizable numbers. Though there are mumblings of another ceasefire effort, I am rather doubtful that the plans offered will gain any traction.
Iran –
Ali Khamenei responds to Israel’s attack:
“The actions of the Zionist regime from two nights ago should neither be overstated nor dismissed. Their miscalculations must be challenged, and the strength, determination, and ingenuity of the Iranian people—especially the youth—must be made clear. It is up to our leaders to decide how best to demonstrate the power and resolve of the Iranian nation and to act in the best interest of our country.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1850817154154696739?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Iran FM: We will not refrain from responding to Israel’s aggression. We reserve the right to respond and will do so at an appropriate time Their attack was not as severe as they had advertised, and our military forces mounted a good defense, though there were some damages
Tehran will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s weekend attack on military targets in Iran, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian:
“Iran is not looking for war but is obliged to respond appropriately to the Israeli attack.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has already FAFO’d, and may well go back for more.
Syria -
Syrian Observatory reports on an attack on US base in eastern Syria by Iran-backed, and an artillery fire by the US-coalition in response