Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Its been 23 years and we’ve forgotten. . . . . .
Yesterday got hit by other events. Doubling up today
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Remembering 9/11 - as far too many have no clue.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
NBC September 25?
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
Dust settling after last night’s “debate”. ABC getting hammered for the gross bias of their so called ‘moderators’, essentially making it a 3 on 1 event. Folks, trump knew he was entering the lions den last night, he’s no fool. By doing so he exposed the shallowness of harris, who hid behind the moderators as well as exposed the media bias to the country. Most rate as a draw, while the far left claim a victory for harris. If the needle moves it will affect independents and undecided towards Trump more than harris just due to the gross unfairness of the ganging up on trump. It will certainly galvanize Trump’s base.
Whether or not the debate on the 25 is still a go or no is still in the air. harris will likely attempt to run as far away from it as possible after last night, but may be forced back if her polls sinks
Illegal Immigration –
Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua have reportedly taken over a hotel in El Paso, TX.
The El Paso County Attorney’s office just filed a restraining order against the hotel. They allege the owner has allowed illegal activity to go on for months. Police have been called there over 700 times in 2 years.
OBSERVATION - These events will continue to grow as these and other criminal gangs establish themselves deeper into the US - especially under the protective blanket of ‘sanctuary ‘ cities and states.
North/South Korea –
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un gave a speech on Monday in which he vowed an “exponential” increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal to meet “the various threats posed by the United States and its followers.”
Kim said the United States and “its followers” (by which he presumably meant South Korea) pose a “grave threat” to the security of his Communist dictatorship with their policies of “reckless expansion.”
“The obvious conclusion is that the nuclear force of the DPRK and the posture capable of properly using it for ensuring the state’s right to security in any time should be more thoroughly perfected,” Kim said in a speech commemorating the 76th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state.
OBSERVATION - A rather typical speech by Kim echoing his pasts calls to increase the country’s nuclear capabilities. Perhaps a little more strident this year since ties to Russia have increased through the supply of arms for the Ukraine war.
Russia -
*****
Kremlin says Moscow will respond if Kyiv uses US ATACMS missiles to strike Russia
Logistics –
Beijing is giving Moscow “very substantial” help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.
RUMINT –
Barely rumint. There are growing reports from multiple angles and sources that the US and Britain are going to give Ukraine the green light to used western weapons systems to strike deeper and harder into Russia. One piece of evidence is the focus on Iranian missiles being delivered to Russia - one source of justification for the policy change. Unclear as to just how much free hand Ukraine will have.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy drone wars
Yesterday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 38/46 Shahed drones
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missileRussia faced
Additionally, 3 Shahed drones left Ukrainian territory and three more were lost, likely due to EW measures.
Overnight, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
Shot down:
0/6 Kh-31P anti radar missiles
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
20/25 Shahed drones
Another 5 Shahed drones fell independently, likely due to EW measures.
Reports of drone strikes overnight against Russia. An estimated 150 Ukraine drones were launched over much of Russia. Explosions reported at the Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports in Moscow along with explosions in the Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tula regions. For the first time, Ukrainian drones are striking Domodedovo International Airport in Moscow. It’s the second-largest airport in Moscow after Sheremetyevo Airport.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Situation appears to be static, though Russian claims a counter offensive is underway, most likely propaganda.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing the attack all across the axis.
Outlook —
Though Russia has redeployed some critical assets deeper into Russia, primarily aircraft, the lumbering behemoth of its logistics and other support assets likely remains clustered in highly targetable sites well within range of western weapons. Part of it may be denial that Ukraine will be allowed to act, part may well be that Russian planners are having enough problems just sustaining the logistic train to the front lines to have to now suddenly disrupt that train to disperse these facilities into smaller, more survivable elements.
We’ve seen throughout this war that Russia’s logistics are extremely vulnerable and when cut off, the troops become vulnerable to Ukraine attacks. Deep strikes will increase this vulnerability .
Now potential targets are not likely restricted to military only, but infrastructure and industry. Oil refineries and other facilities, power generation, rail network and yes, the Kerch Strait Bridge all will have bullseyes on them. Russia’s air defenses, already stretched, will find it more difficult to protect from and even survive Ukraine attacks. Even now, with simpler drone attacks, Ukraine is having success penetrating to Moscow.
This brings us to Moscow’s response and a lot depends on the targets hit and how close to Moscow they come. putin has lost some of the PR against deep strikes just by his attacks on civilian targets of late as well as his non-action when previous red lines have been ‘crossed’. I have little doubt that once Ukraine deep strikes occur that Russia will redouble large missile/drone attacks (likely drawing upon the Iranian and remaining NK missile) aimed at govt and civilian targets. There will be nuclear saber rattling too, but I think that will be all he will do. Were putin to order a tactical nuke strike(s) on Ukraine, multiple NATO countries like Poland, Romania and the Baltics would respond. All heck would ensue afterwards.
On the ground, an aspect I’ve noticed, but not really tracked, is the substantial drop in the numbers of Russian tanks and APCs reportedly being destroyed on the front. Some OSINT analysts are noting two trends, the biggest is that those elements are in very short supply and reserved for major operations and two, because they are in short supply, Russian is relying on meat attack and alternative transportation of the troops to the front (hence the ATVs, motor cycles and more civilian vehicles racing to the drop-off points for the ground assaults. Russian glide bombing support has also been a game changer in providing more firepower to an attack than its dwindling artillery elements can provide. These are standoff munitions which means the Russian jets don’t have to be significantly exposed to Ukraine ADA assets.
The critical fight to watch is the Pokrovsk axis, as it has Russia’s highest priority. Ukraine is reinforcing the sector with seasoned, remanned and rearmed brigades and will make the Russian efforts very difficult to achieve.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) The Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, called on NATO to have a joint response to Russian drones entering Latvian and Romanian airspace over the weekend. The Latvian defense ministry recalled an agreement at the NATO Washington Summit this summer to “strengthen air defense on NATO’s eastern flank by introducing a more active rotational air defense model.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense airstrikes in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
IDF Spokesman:
Earlier today, IDF forces detained a convoy of UN vehicles in northern Gaza, due to intelligence that a number of Palestinian suspects were present in the convoy.
IDF forces delayed the convoy in order to question the suspects.
UN later statement said “Our staff held by Israel in Gaza have been released.”
Speaking to troops during a drill simulating a ground offensive in Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving its focus to the northern front as it aims to soon achieve its objectives in the Gaza Strip. “The center of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”
A probable report indicates Washington has warned Israel that U.S. naval forces cannot remain deployed indefinitely in the West Asia region to protect the country.
The report indicated that the U.S. sent a message urging Israel to reduce tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, as the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the area is temporary. “The aircraft carriers will not be able to stay in the area forever,” the report quoted.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
Overnight, the Israeli army says it struck prominent Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis. The military says it took steps to mitigate harm to civilians in the strike. Palestinian media report dozens of casualties in the attack, and say that the strikes hit a tent camp for displaced Gazans.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon were targeted in airstrikes yesterday, the IDF says. The sites were hit by fighter jets in the towns of Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Naqoura.
Hezbollah confirms in an official announcement the death of Muhammad al-Sha’ar, a commander in the Radwan force who was killed this morning in the Bekaa in Lebanon.
Overnight, four different areas in southern Lebanon were attacked.
Air Force fighter jets attacked during the night in the areas of Al Jabin, A-Nakura, Deir Sirin and Zabkin in southern Lebanon, about 30 launchers and military infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.
Also, IDF forces attacked with artillery in the A-Dahira area in southern Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Police say they foiled an attempt to smuggle some 74 handguns into Israel from Jordan yesterday via the Rabin Crossing. The incident occurred on the same day as a deadly attack at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. Customs inspectors at the Rabin terminal, near Eilat, found 74 Glock pistols and 61 magazines inside a Mitsubishi vehicle that was trying to cross into Israel from Jordan, police say.The driver of the car and a passenger, residents of the Bedouin town of Bir Hadaj and and another Bedouin community near Yeruham, were detained.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The military spokesman of the Houthis announces they shot down another American MQ9 drone - the second in 72 hours and the ninth since the start of the war in Gaza.
Each MQ9 costs about 32 million dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is establishing end game controls over Gaza which include control of the Phildelphi corridor, a 3 km buffer around the entire territory and control of the Nezarim corridor across the middle of Gaza. In all, this represents about 30% of Gaza. Hamas’ direct threat to Israel has been essentially destroyed, now only the search and destroy operations to further eliminate hamas leadership, followers, facilities and arms/munitions to prohibit hamas from regaining power.
This change in Gaza operations is one of the key indicators I’ve noted months ago that the emphasis is going to switch to Hezbollah. Israeli civilian and military leadership have increasingly over the past week or so, been much more outspoken at the prospect of entering Lebanon, likely preparing the citizens for a much more substantial war.
There seems over the past week to be a greater intensity in IAF strikes on key Hezbollah facilities across Lebanon, designed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities. Far more rocket/missile launching sites getting hammered.
Finally, noting that the US has likely informed Israel that it cannot maintain US military presence in the region on standby for very much longer may instigate earlier rather than later attack on Hezbollah. Israel is relying in part on the western military presence to keep Iran in check. War with Hezbollah would likely stir the delayed Iranian revenge response. How long can the US sustain the deployment of forces? The reports out there don’t say but if history is any teacher, I would expect that not much more than another month.
Israel has the capability to initiate operations within a month to key upon the presence of western military elements. Such an all out war would also force these western forces to hold off any planned drawdown of forces. The “October Surprise” may come from an unlikely quarter this year.
Iran hasn’t been all that quiet either. As noted, actions in the West Bank have stepped up lately as Iran attempts to develop another front against Israel there. Terrorist elements are receiving more arms and munitions being smuggled in via Syria/Jordan and increasing attacks on Jews. Israel security forces have been reinforced by drone and IAF strikes - a first for Israel in this situation. What the terrorists in the West Bank lack are the extensive underground facilities Hamas and Hezbollah have as well as the heavier weapons. A different urban setting, but one that won’t divert too many resources away from the Hezbollah operations.
Jordan is facing a trying situation. Relatively friendly towards israel, it is facing rising palestinian and radical islamic forces that could threaten the rule of the king. So in part to keep them (temporally) from turning their guns on him, he may be giving a more hands off approach on the regions bordering the West Bank. He will have to eventually deal with the growing, iranian influenced arabs in the region.
Iran –
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says the US is announcing new sanctions against Iran.
“[These sanctions] will be a significant economic consequences for Tehran’s actions.
US Treasury: Sanctions on Iranian Aviation and Russian Ships
UK foreign office: The UK Government and partners respond to Iran’s transfer of Ballistic Missiles to Russia: UK and E3 partners cancel bilateral arrangements with Iran, which will restrict Iran Air services into the UK and Europe; UK and US announce co-ordinated sanctions against Iranian and Russian individuals and organizations; Russian cargo ships sanctioned for their role in transporting military supplies from Iran to Russia
Iranian Foreign Minister: Tehran did not deliver ballistic missiles to Russia
Just before Thanksgiving. What scum!!!!
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