You’re probably right in that it is mostly an invasion from the sea, but I think once China does invade, Taiwan may need munition replenishment and we don’t have it.
If China gets a substantial bridgehead on Taiwan, thats all she wrote. If their amphibious transports get to the beaches Taiwans only hope is to crush them on the beach or on the water.
Thats why Taiwan has 1000+ pieces of artillery. Taiwan has few viable beaches and the island is small enough for most of their guns to cover most of them without moving much. Any attempted landing is likely to be crushed by a firepower concentration without precedent in history, landing on an also unprecedented concentration of targets.
Chinas only hope is to risk everything on one shot, absorb massive casualties, and carry on if possible. It will be 24-48 hours of hell, after which it will be perfectly clear who won.
There will be no option to bombard each other for months across trenchlines (which is what eats ammo in Ukraine), there is no room for this.
If China fails to take a viable bridgehead, their losses in trained units and shipping will be such as to preclude another attempt for years.
The biggest danger to Taiwan is a Chinese blockade, by sea and air. An invasion will be a massive risk. Taiwan is a great fortress with a formidable moat.
Taiwan,I believe, makes its own ammunition. They also have significant stockpiles.