Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4179430/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
Russia’s idea of how to fight a way is to hunker down into a long battle of attrition. Worked against Hitler and Napoleon, right? Which is what they’ve doing now. Short of convincing Putin to withdraw (they won’t), the Ukrainians are now consigned to throw waves of ground forces against entrenched Russians — and the Russians are willing and able to trade the Ukrainians 2-1 in casualties.
Section 1 of 8 - Ukraine: Military Situation Update - Sept 1, 2023.
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
==
Section 2B: Extra:
——> Russia Sets Up Civilian Patrols To Protect Base After Drone Attack Destroyed Jets <——
Rattled by the fact Kresty Air Base was hit by drones launched nearby, the local governor is gathering residents to patrol the area.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-sets-up-civilian-patrols-to-protect-base-after-drone-attack-destroyed-jets
==
Section 2C: Extra:
——> First Ukrainian M1 Abrams Tank Crews Complete Training <——
Ukraine’s M1 Abrams tanks are set to arrive in the next few weeks and they are likely to be rushed to the front before the rains hit.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/first-ukrainian-m1-abrams-tank-crews-complete-training
[ Russians in Big Trouble. Ukrainians Created a Secret Base Inside Russia!!! ]
==
Reporting From Ukraine, Section 3A:
Day 555: Sep 01
Today, there are some groundbreaking developments.
First of all, more information became available about the Ukrainian strike on the Russian strategic airfield in Pskov.
Last time, we confirmed the complete destruction of 2 aircraft and possible damage to 2 more, but further evaluation was complicated due to the cloudy weather.
However, today, it was reported that those 5 aircraft that were previously invisible highly likely received some damage as well, increasing the number of damaged aircraft from 4 to 9.
And this makes sense because even Russian initial figures after the 2nd out of 3 waves of attacks claimed that only 4 aircraft were damaged.
But the biggest news is not about the inflicted damage, but about how Ukrainians actually did it.
As you remember, there were 3 theories:
that Ukrainians launched their drones from Ukraine, of which Russian analysts were skeptical;
that Ukrainians launched it through Belarus;
and that Baltic states helped Ukraine to conduct this strike.
As it turned out, none of these versions are correct.
Some Russian analysts also recalled how two weeks ago, Ukrainian saboteurs operating on the territory of the Russian Federation launched quadcopters from the nearby settlements and damaged 2 Russian strategic bombers Tu-22M3 on 2 different airfields.
These analysts made a suggestion that maybe this drone strike was also launched from the Russian territory, but other analysts claimed that this was too crazy.
The sheer scale of the strike would suggest that Ukrainians established a large-scale production of assault drones inside Russia, created launch pads, and a complicated system of surveillance and coordination, which, as they concluded, would be simply impossible to hide from the Russian Federal Security Services.
Unfortunately for Russians, this is exactly what happened.
Interestingly, right after the strike, the spokesman for Ukrainian Intelligence Yuriy Butusov, released a video of one of the initial tests of a new type of drone that could be assembled from simple cardboard.
He also claimed that they already used these drones in a small-scale attack on the Russian airfields in Kursk on 27 August and destroyed 4 fighter jets Su-30, and 1 jet MiG-29.
Given that Ukrainians are literally using paper planes with explosives, they are very easy to create and assemble and very hard to detect by radars.
Judging by the video, the drones also explode above the target and cover a large area with shrapnel that is capable of penetrating fuselage, fuel tanks, badly damaging an entire aircraft, and easily causing a fire.
Such a teaser obviously raised a lot of discussions inside the Russian media space and gave rise to speculations about the usage of these drones during the large-scale strike on Pskov.
Two days later, the Head of the Ukrainian Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov officially confirmed in an interview that the strike on Pskov was indeed launched from the territory of the Russian Federation.
Simultaneously, Ukrainians released a video of the moment of the strike and destruction of one of the Russian strategic air-lifters IL-76.
What this means is that Ukrainians did not just launch drones based on some information, but based on real-time intelligence that they were receiving via a flying drone.
That is why Ukrainians could dynamically correct the trajectories, ensuring a much higher success rate.
The fact that this was organized and conducted 700 km from Ukraine, deep inside Russia, is simply mind-boggling.
British Intelligence recently released a report about all known Ukrainian drone strikes on Crimea and Russia in 2023, and it turned out that in less than 240 days, Ukrainians conducted 190 known strikes.
Once again, this does not include those conducted near the contact line, just Crimea and Russia.
And as you can also notice from the map, the reach of these drone strikes is very impressive - a lot of bases in the Moscow and Tula regions suffered over these months.
And even if we just take the last month, August, based only on the confirmed destruction of Russian equipment from videos that happened on the territory of the Russian Federation, Ukrainians destroyed 1.2 billion dollars worth of equipment, which is a substantial proportion of the Russian annual military budget, and is incomparable to how little Ukrainians spent on cheap Chinese drones and lately paper planes with explosives for these strikes.
==
[ Ukraine Hit Russian Tanks Hard in The East | Abrams Will be Soon ]
Denys Says, Section 4A:
Most of the Bradleys and Leopard 2 tanks that were damaged are now recovered and in maintenance & repair.
Denys may have said that Russia no longer has the capability to remove UA IFVs and tanks - but his actual words were a bit garbled.
==
Denys Says, Section 4B:
In the Donets area, one of Russia’s biggest armor fuel dumps was hit. Major logistics hit - tons of fuel gone.
==
Denys says, Section 4C:
Major items Destroyed in 1 Month
2 TU-22M3 - $588 million;
1 S-400 - $69 million;
1 PLC
Predel-E Radar - $200 million;
4 IL-76s - $344 million;
$1.2 billion
==
Denys Says, Section 4D:
UA Bradleys with aiming pods can light up targets 20km away for artillery units.
==
Denys Says, Section 4E:
Russian Officer Losses for 31 Aug - 2,751
==
Pilot blog Section 5A:
Brief overview as of the night of September 1-2 from DeepState + map update.
1. The Ukrainian Defense Forces moved south a little more along the first position of the main line of defense of the RF Armed Forces (approximately 1.5 km).
2. Near Robotnye, the first Russian paratroopers from the 104th regiment of the 76th Airborne Division (the one who arrived for reinforcements from Kremennaya) are already being captured.
3. The 234th and 237th regiments of this 76th division are also going for reinforcements from Kremennaya, still in the process of moving.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6484
==
Pilot blog Section 5B:
Russians have deployed a reserve army to transfer additional forces to the south of Ukraine - ISW
With the help of additional forces, the occupiers hope to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
However, analysts believe that the “new” 25th combined-arms army is unlikely to become combat-ready enough, given the pace of its deployment.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6483
Friedrich Merz (@_FriedrichMerz ): "These cruise missiles should be delivered, just as France and UK did (Scalp-EG/Stormshadow), in order to support Ukraine's military capabilities from the air."
This is also supported by defense specialist, Carlo Masala (@CarloMasala1).
One of the loudest advocates is Roderich Kiesewetter (@RKiesewetter), also part of the CDU.
Even some in the German government are supporting this idea. Only the SPD-led Chancellery is blocking, bringing up illogical and outright wrong excuses.
Germany has 600 of the KEPD-350 TAURUS missiles in her inventories.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1697978572357374212
Germany has 600 of the KEPD-350 TAURUS missiles in her inventories...so, start shipping some now!
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1697991878803624063
Certainly these Aim-120s are not A/B variant.
These could be used in NASAMs as well as F-16s.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1697927153382232539
Unfortunately, there is no location data at the link.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1698002449745723614
This seems like the bottom line in the recent oil price increases - Saudi production cuts. Russia getting around price caps is perhaps another issue, but these market conditions help them.
Saudi Arabia Reaps The Benefits Of Steepening Backwardation
(Current spot prices higher than futures contracts - $2 a barrel)
By Gerald Jansen - Aug 31, 2023 (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Reaps-The-Benefits-Of-Steepening-Backwardation.html )
“the key factor in the price rally of July-August, namely Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts...
...Saudi Arabia’s production cuts are gradually moving into their third month of existence, lowering total crude exports out of the country below 6 million b/d, the lowest pace of outflows since the spring of 2021. By drastically cutting the supply of medium sour crude globally and lifting ICE Brent to $85 per barrel, Saudi Aramco has achieved the seemingly unthinkable – in a market where everyone was looking at Chinese demand weakness, the supply-side tightness became the key talking point...
...the relatively high prices of Saudi barrels allow Riyadh to reach its fiscal breakeven of $80-81 per barrel.”
Ukraine says it has identified a Russian commander accused of Bucha atrocities
(https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-says-it-has-identified-a-russian-commander-accused-of-bucha-atrocities/ar-AA1g85t5 )
““The Security Service has established the identity of another Russian occupier who is involved in mass murders of civilians during the occupation of Kyiv region. The perpetrator is Senior Lieutenant Vadym Ovchinnikov, the commander of the reconnaissance platoon of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Combined Arms Army of the Eastern Military District of the Russian Federation,” the SBU said in the statement.
The SBU alleges Ovchinnikov “took direct part in the capture of the villages of Severynivka, Motyzhyn, and Kopyliv of the Bucha district”...
...Bucha, a town northwest of Kyiv, was occupied by Russian troops shortly after the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. According to the Ukrainian prosecutor general’s office, the Russian army committed thousands of war crimes in the Bucha district, and hundreds of people (civilians) were killed in the town of Bucha alone before it was liberated in March 2022.
According to the source those drones have been used for an attack against a Russian airfield in Kursk, where four SU-30 and one MiG-29 were damaged. In addition, a S-300 and two Pantsir were targeted as well.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1698013456400515359
Although this video was posted a couple of days ago, it is worth further analysis.
In the video, the drone is blanked out.
There are 2 explosions, most likely from 2 separate drone attacks.
Each explosion shows pellets impacting the target area.
Most likely, these are tungston pellets, similar to those used in the M30A1 GMLRS Alternate Warhead, pictured below:
The last 10 seconds of the video shows close-ups of the impact damage caused by the pellets.
My guess is these were the drones used on the IL-76s.
The pellets penetrated the wings of the IL-76s. The aircraft that were refueled leaked, which fed the fire that destroyed the aircraft.
The aircraft that were not refueled sustained damage but were not destroyed.
The first F-16s have already flown over Ukraine
Intelligence reports that Ukraine deployed F-16 fighter jets for its anti-missile defense in late August.
At the same time, at least two flights are known, when the planes took off from the airfields of NATO countries and entered the airspace of Ukraine during missile attacks.
They were operated by Ukrainian pilots.
In principle, everything is as we predicted - Ukraine receives weapons and equipment faster than it is announced.
At the same time, over the past few days, about a dozen experienced pilots have died under mysterious circumstances in Ukraine.
After that, the enemy strengthened the protection of air facilities and flight safety in general.
It is obvious that while the use of the F-16 will not be massive, but their appearance in itself will expand the capabilities of the Ukrainian side.
And let us immediately recall that back in May we wrote that the planes would arrive much earlier than they say.
At the same time, we announced that Ukraine would receive not only the F-16, but also a number of other modern models.
And so it happened.
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
This makes four ships that have made it out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, since Russia withdrew from the Grain Deal. The Grain Deal will be high on the agenda when Erdogan and Putin meet on Monday.
“On 1 September, Ukraine’s Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov said that two ships previously blocked due to the military action in the area left Ukrainian ports in the direction of the Bosphorus, carrying pig-iron and iron ore concentrate.”
Ukraine's Defence Minister to be removed from post soon Ukrainska Pravda Thu, August 31, 2023 (https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-defence-minister-removed-post-050950403.html )
"The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Legislature) is expected to consider the resignation of the current defence minister next week.
(Ukrainian MP Yaroslav) Zhelezniak said authorities are considering appointing Reznikov to the post of Ukraine's ambassador to the UK.
The most likely candidate to replace Reznikov is the current head of the State Property Fund, Rustem Umerov."
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1697747277748576621
Excellent video at the link.
Location (48.433008, 38.140079)