Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4176016/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
“An unidentified “copter-type” UAV struck Soltsy-2 airfield in the Novgorod region.” — RF Ministry of Defense
In total, according to the latest data, about 10 Tu-22m3 aircraft were stationed at the home airfield. There are reports that Russia is transferring the surviving planes to the airfield in Olenya, Murmansk Oblast.
Ukraine: military situation update - Aug 18, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
==
——> Ukrainian F-16 Combat Proficiency At Scale Not Likely Before 2027, Air Force General Says <——
Training demands mean Ukraine won’t get F-16s until next year at the earliest and substantial combat proficiency will take much longer.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says
[ The Slow Walk just got slower. ]
Excerpt:
F-16 pilot training for Ukrainians is currently underway, U.S. Air Force Gen. James Hecker, head of U.S. Air Forces in Europe (USAFE), as well as NATO’s Allied Air Command and U.S. Air Forces Africa (AFAFRICA) announced Friday morning during a Defense Writer’s Group virtual briefing.
“They’re young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they’re not currently fighting the war,” he said. The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K.
“And then they’re going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker.
“And that’s probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that’s why it’s going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”
But even if Ukraine does get F-16s next year, it won’t likely have enough pilots who can fly them into combat to anywhere near their potential before 2027, Hecker said.
“You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. “It takes a while to build a couple of squadrons of F-16s and to get their readiness high enough and their proficiency high enough. This could be four or five years down the road.”
[ Follows detailed description of the training they need and will receive. Link to article describing training. ]
==
——> Ukrainian Drones Target Moscow, Black Sea Fleet <——
An attempted Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow resulted in damage while a Black Sea Fleet corvette came under attack by a drone boat.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-drones-target-moscow-black-sea-fleet
According to operational data, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing a breakthrough in the area of the Antonovsky bridge. They can start hitting any day.
Already concentrated 3 waves of 2500 people and 38 armored vehicles Stryker, Maxxpro and Bushmaster. 23 tanks, including 4 Leopard-1 and 3 Challenger-2.
https://t.me/obrazbuduschego2/15129
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Ukrainians Create a Huge Graveyard of The Best Russian Tanks ]
••Day 541: Aug 18
Today there are a lot of interesting developments in the east.
Here, after Ukrainians pushed Russians from Klishchiivka and Andriivka and forced Russians to retreat all the way behind the railways, Ukrainians started gradually clearing the area, and setting the ground for the next attack.
Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainians operate deep inside the village and that despite the fact that Russians no longer maintain a permanent presence in the village, Russians are still trying to get their positions back.
Another footage confirms that Ukrainians have been holding defense in the houses for multiple days in a row.
Recently, the situation got heated once again as Russians renewed their attempts to return control over the lost positions.
The main Russian attack came from the east of the village.
As the village is stretched vertically, by attacking it from the east, Russians attempted to stretch the contact line and recapture a significant portion of the settlement in just one push.
Geolocated footage shows that Russians used the best Russian tank T-90M and several armored fighting vehicles loaded with assault units.
Simultaneously, Russians started advancing from Andriivka.
Even though Ukrainians previously pushed Russian out of the village, Ukrainians still struggled to enter it because Russians established a defense line around 50 meters from the settlement right behind the railroad embankment.
Recent geolocated footage shows how Ukrainians are striking Russian positions on the embankment, gradually undermining the Russian defense.
The situation became very dire, which is why Russians sent here whole 3 tanks T-90M together with multiple armored fighting vehicles.
Such a strong shift in dynamics seems to have come out of the blue, however, there is a good reason for it.
If you still remember, several weeks ago, the Russian High Command fired the commander of the 106th Airborne Division for raising the alarm about the situation in Klishchiivka and demanding more resources.
As expected, after he was sent on the so-called vacation in the heat of the battle, the Russian defense without support collapsed, Russians lost 2 powerful fortifications and 2 settlements behind them.
Apparently, the Russian High Command understood that they made a grave mistake and recently returned major general Selivestrov from his vacation, gave him more resources, and ordered him to change the situation.
That is how the best tanks in the Russian arsenal appeared on this front in large numbers, and Russians reinvigorated their attempts to recapture lost positions.
Unfortunately for Russians, it was too late.
As Ukrainians already passed the main fortifications, Russian forces had no tactical advantage.
When it comes to the Russian attack on Klishchiivka, Ukrainians managed to rebuff it.
Geolocated footage shows that the Russian tank got destroyed already on the approach, while the assault units that landed in the eastern outskirts got trapped there and eventually destroyed.
When it comes to the Russian attack near Andriivka, the Russian assault lasted even less.
Ukrainian fighters from the famous 3rd Assault Brigade ambushed the attackers right near the village and completely demolished the Russian column still en route.
As a result, Russians lost 3 tanks T-90M, 2 armored fighting vehicles, up to 65 troops killed in action and wounded, and even the commander of the whole battalion.
The fact that Russians are using and losing their best tanks in large numbers is a very good sign.
As you remember, after a series of disastrous Russian offensive operations near Vuhledar and Avdiivka, where Russians lost a significant number of tanks, Russians started sending more and more old tanks to the front.
Most of these old tanks did not have any modern equipment, and the only process of modernization that they underwent was being equipped with optics.
Interestingly, last week there was a huge explosion in the Russian factory that produces optics.
Russian analysts claimed that this was the result of the work of Ukrainian Intelligence with the goal of halting or degrading the production of tanks.
And if Russians continue losing modern tanks so rapidly, the problems will obviously get exacerbated.
Overall, Ukrainians stood their ground and repelled a major wave of counterattacks.
A commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade reported that Russians deployed fresh reserves from the 83rd Brigade, which complicated further movement.
Nonetheless, even though Ukrainian forces around Klishchiivka and Andriivka have to temporarily adopt a defensive stance until the Russians deplete their reserves, the fighters from the famous 3rd Assault Brigade continue methodically moving forward in the direction of Kurdiumivka.
Recent geolocated footage shows how Ukrainians destroyed a Russian armored fighting vehicle north of Kurdiumivka.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently visited the command center of the 3rd Assault Brigade in order to see for himself how they plan and execute their operations.
As this brigade is responsible for a lot of territorial gains, the president first-hand wanted to get to know all their needs in order to make sure that nothing stopped them from continuing moving forward.
••Urozhayne:
UA began an assault from the village toward the southwest to expand the bridgehead because there was a significant risk of Russian attacks from the east and west.
The UA convoy that was to start the attack was ambushed by Orc artillery (confirmed). 20 casualties and ~8 armored vehicles lost. The UA did manage take the ground, however, but the cost was high.
Orc artillery waited until all the vehicles had arrived at their destination and formed a compact group.
The question is: why was there no UA artillery cover of the convoy?
This ambush is being used by Russian media to boost the morale of their troops and to proclaim a great victory.
This mistake shows the UA middle an lower rank commanders need more training - which is the UA’s main task now.
German Army Lieutenant General Andreas Marlow said changed their training to prioritize sergeant and officer training over troop training. Marlow said the UA is in desperate need of low and middle rank commanders.
Now, soldiers can upgrade to officer rank without the previously needed university degree. These will, hopefully, go on to replace the old Soviet dinosaurs that inhabit the UA.
The US needs to keep moving so as to get out from under the aviation glide bombs and artillery.
==
Robotnye:
The UA continues to advance here also. UA seems to be fighting in the urban environment of the village, pushing the Orcs further away.
Here, there are a few Leopard 2 tanks that are either stuck in the mud or hit by drones or artillery. However, they all appear to be without serious damage and can be recovered.
Orc drone video shows destroyed Leopard 2 which hit a mine and then had a ZALA Lancet drone hit the aft part of the turret, where shells are kept; crew had long evacuated before the hit.
The resulting explosion was directed up and out, unlike Soviet tanks.
==
Mi-24 attack helicopters coming from Czech Republic soon.
==
Now the MSM is reversing course again to print negative articles about the UA offensive.
==
Even though the latest UA USV attack was unsuccessful, Russia does not have the necessary robust resources to protect its fleet, so expect more USV attacks.
==
Russia, Turkey and Qatar to start new grain deal - whether this deal allows the export of Ukraine grain or not is unknown at present. Russian grain to go to African and some Asian countries.
[ Putin’s Ploy to destroy Ukraine grain ports in order to take those markets, seems to have worked. ]
==
Russian Orthodox Church preformed a blessing on the monument to Ioseb Besarionis dze Jughashvili, who murdered millions.
Russia attacked the central square of Chernihiv city. Many civilians died and wounded
https://t.me/pilotblog/6109?single
==
Novgorod region, Russia military airfield “Soltsy”. Drone strike. A fire started, at least one aircraft was damaged - this was recognized by the Ministry of Defense.
But monitoring publics write about damage to at least two sides of the Tu-22M3.
Tu-22M3s are strategic bombers that constantly launch Kh-22s at Ukrainian front-line cities such as Kramatorsk, and which bombed Odessa from the Black Sea all July.
In total, according to monitoring groups, there were about 10 Tu-22M3 units at the airfield. After the strike, they were urgently transported to the Olenya airfield in the Murmansk region - further north for safety.
From the territory of Ukraine to Soltsy - at least 675 km.
That’s what a strike on a military facility is, and not the bombing of the center of Chernigov during a holiday and a crowd of people ... terrorists.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6110?single
==
Ukrainian pilots have started the test training on Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, — Zelensky
This is a 4th generation fighter that can take off and land from low-quality runways.
Its advantages are a reasonable price, low operating costs, the possibility of integrating domestic weapons and a wide space for further modernization.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6115
==
The GUR reveals the details of the explosion in the occupied Energodar during a meeting of the leaders of the occupation police - video
As a result of the explosion, the so-called:
“Head” of the city department Colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia Pavel Chesanov (Chuvash Republic);
his “deputy” for operational work;
“head” of the investigation department;
“chief” of the duty unit;
“heads” of a number of departments.
They are planned to be evacuated by military helicopters to the territory of Russia.
The building was also used as a quarters for the personnel of the occupiers.
After the explosion, at least two floors were damaged - from 3 to 5.
The area has been blocked. The internet is down in the city.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6095
==
Russia, Turkey and Qatar are preparing a new agreement on the export of grain - Bild
Under a potential new deal that could be signed as early as this weekend, Russian grain will be shipped to poor countries, mostly in Africa. Türkiye will act as an organizer, Qatar - as a sponsor of supplies.
At the same time, Turkey asks the Russian Federation to return to the grain deal so that grain can be exported from Ukraine.
In turn, Moldova is ready to help Ukraine with the transit of grain, said President Maia Sandu. She added that it was a “difficult topic” and they were “trying to find a solution”.
Meanwhile, the United States warns of possible sanctions on Turkish companies due to Russian assistance, writes The Wall Street Journal.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6096
==
Someone is smoking in Evpatoria, Crimea
https://t.me/pilotblog/6097
The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, in an interview with El País:
I’m afraid that it is not for us to dictate peace terms to Ukrainians. And I don’t believe that withholding military aid to Ukraine would lead to a world that wasn’t a world of the vanquished.
Europe thought that the war had disappeared from its horizon, that it was something far away and unleashed by others.
But now the conflict is on our borders and touches us: Putin’s Russia is a threat to our security.
If there were no NWO, it would have taken years for Ukraine to join the EU. If she joined the bloc tomorrow, she would be the only net recipient of funds. All others would become net payers.
But wars speed up history. And one of the consequences of this acceleration is that Ukraine suddenly became a candidate, and a serious one at that. This will be done as quickly as possible.
The NWO definitely pushed Ukraine to the side that Putin did not want to see it on.
Saturday, August 19, 2023, in the morning report to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, the irretrievable military operational losses of manpower of the personnel of the RF Armed Forces are 267,418 people.
Data as of 6:00 Moscow time today.
This figure, excluding data on the losses of Russian PMCs taking part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, on Tuesday, August 1, is 76,192 dead.
Most of the Russian PMCs came under the control of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and their losses are now an integral part of the total losses, since August 1, a separate calculation has not been conducted.
https://t.me/generalsvr2/515
Ukraine may launch three or four more offensives on the front this year
Such a forecast is given by the Ministry of Defense, two sources in the ministry told us.
“The West continues to pump weapons into the enemy, a significant part of the weapons is given secretly, and we see them only on the battlefield.
According to intelligence, the plans of NATO countries to supply weapons to Ukraine are simply frightening,” one of them said.
According to him, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Mariupol and Donetsk will be under threat in the event of new Ukrainian offensives.
Also, problems in the Kupyansk direction, where the initiative is now behind our troops, and a serious aggravation of the situation in the Crimea are not ruled out.
As for the current Ukrainian offensive, according to sources, “the enemy has some, very limited, successes, we have lost part of the territories, but the enemy has not achieved its goals.”
“At the same time, Russian fighters are fighting on a number of sectors of the front ‘with the last of their strength.’ Our troops are very exhausted, they fight on moral and strong-willed qualities. Fight heroically!
“But there are many problems, the main of which is big losses.
“In the same Zaporizhzhia direction, our army may one day simply end.
“We hope for mobilization, but we may not wait for it, we really need fresh forces, and right now,” the representative of the Ministry of Defense admitted.
Our interlocutors refuse to talk about how the current and future offensives of the Ukrainian troops will end.
The situation, they say, is ‘most unpredictable.’
==
The Ukrainian army broke through in two places: what is happening at the front
We checked the Western press for information that the Ukrainian military had made a breakthrough towards Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region. A source in the General Staff confirmed these data, but urged not to dramatize the situation.
“In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy made breakthroughs in two places of the front.
Tokmok has never been under such a serious threat as it is now.
At the same time, we should not dramatize the situation, our chances of defending the city are high. Heavy fighting is going on,” our interlocutor said.
According to him, the main problem is the heavy losses that our army suffered during the breakthrough of the enemy.
At the same time, the source refused to provide any other details, urging “to believe in the strength of the Russian army.”
The representative of the General Staff also declined to comment on Valery Gerasimov’s forecasts. Recall that in July the head of the General Staff said that Russia could lose control over Tokmok in August or September.
It became known who - and which segments of the population for the first time - will be affected by the autumn mobilization (from 25.09 already).
1. Reservists who again received Russian citizenship.
2. Reservists who acquired citizenship between 2000 and 2020
3. Security officials from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Federal Security Service and the Federal Penitentiary Service (which the Ministry of Defense had previously called for).
The decision passed the stage of reconciliation between all those involved.
(There were nuances, but Washington decided not to turn off plans for the transfer of F-16 aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, so there is an escalation ahead).
All the towers of the Kremlin agree and are ready to act in solidarity and in a consolidated manner.
After the formation of the reservation through state corporations and the IT sector, 1.2 million summonses will be issued through the State Services. 750.000 for data clarification, 450.000 for mobilization.
Of the 450,000, it is predicted that 45-70,000 will not pass the medical examination, the rest will go to field camps for training.
https://t.me/nonetutto/553
At the military airfield in Soltsy in the Novgorod region, which was hit by a UAV, there were long-range supersonic Tu-22M3 bombers, according to the Cheka-OGPU.
The Ministry of Defense reports damage to one aircraft; military experts speak of two. According to international services, now the surviving aircraft are moving to the Murmansk region.
https://t.me/rusbrief/146799
Very different (quiet) night for Russian Ruble exchange rates last night - very stable around 94 to the Dollar.
The night prior, the ruble seemed to be holding under steady attack.
Maybe it is a weekend effect.