Posted on 08/15/2023 2:35:08 PM PDT by Kazan
I will try to make this simple. It is a complex question, but it is something we should be contemplating if the world is going to avoid a nuclear holocaust. It boils down to three possibilities:
*Unconditional Surrender
*Negotiated Settlement
*Prolonged Conflict and Exhaustion, i.e. Stalemate
From Russia’s perspective the military operation in Ukraine is not a war. War means destroying the enemy — physically, materially and politically. Despite the claims from Western propaganda, Russia has shied away from inflicting mass civilian casualties. Russia has not tried to destroy Western ISR platforms, Ukrainian government infrastructure or Ukrainian political officials. In short, Russia has only played a few of the military cards it holds. Going to war means you go all in.
Ukraine and its NATO allies hold a diametrically opposed view — this is a Russian war of aggression. In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has not only mobilized its population of military aged men, but it has dragooned youth under the age of 18 and men between the ages of 45 and 65 into uniform and sent the cannon fodder forward. Ukraine’s ability to sustain a war footing going forward is entirely dependent on money and weapons supplied by the United States and other NATO member states. Without foreign support Ukraine cannot continue to fight a modern industrial war.
So let us review some crucial facts:
1. Ukraine is suffering devastating military casualties and does not have a trained reserve force it can send to the battlefield.
2. Ukraine lacks a viable fixed wing combat air capability.
3. Ukraine lacks a stockpile of tanks, vehicles, artillery, artillery shells.
4. Ukraine does not have secure training facilities/bases on its own territory and must rely on other NATO countries to provide training. (This means the training is limited and not standardized.)
5.Ukraine’s counter-offensive, which was supposed to breach Russia’s Surovikin defense lines, has failed and Ukraine lacks the combat power to escalate attacks.,p. 6. Russia, by contrast, has ample numbers of trained troop reserves, artillery ammunition, artillery (mobile and fixed), cruise missiles, drones, more than a thousand fixed wing combat aircraft, attack helicopters, and massive air defense systems.
7. Russia is self-sufficient in critical natural resources required to supply its defense industries.
8. Russia is no longer dependent on the West for trade and its economy is growing in-spite of Western economic sanctions.
Many Western analysts insist that the situation unfolding in Ukraine is a stalemate and postulate that the war with Russia will drag on for years to come. Nonsense. Given the facts outlined above, the advantages fall entirely into the Russian side of the ledger. Ukraine does not enjoy a single advantage over Russia at this stage. In my view, it is unlikely that the Russian/Ukrainian war will produce a stalemate.
What about a negotiated settlement? Possible, but any deal will be on Russia’s terms. Russia will insist on international recognition of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk as permanent parts of Russia. This is non-negotiable. Ukraine’s political leaders continue to insist that is a non-starter. In other words, there is no deal in the offing.
Which leaves us with the third possibility — unconditional surrender. Ukraine’s military is heading towards a breaking point because of mounting casualties. Ukraine does not have a cadre of trained reserves waiting in the wings ready to rush to the front to continue the effort to breach Russia’s defensive lines. Ukraine is facing a situation like the one that confronted the Confederate General, Robert E. Lee, at Appomattox. Lee’s beleaguered army still wanted to carry on the fight against the North but, despite their spirit, they lacked the logistics and manpower to continue. Lee recognized the futility of the situation and agreed to the generous terms offered by General Ulysses Grant. I believe the moment is approaching when Ukraine’s General Zaluzhny will face a similar moment of truth.
I think the most likely scenario is a major rift between Zelensky and his military commanders over whether to continue the war. Ukrainians having a desire to fight is no substitute for having the necessary supplies of weapons and, more importantly, trained troops to use those weapons. At present, Ukraine has no viable path for sustaining military operations without guaranteed support from NATO.
The wild card in these calculations is NATO. Worst case — the United States or other NATO members decide to intervene by sending their own troops to Ukraine . This will mark the end of the “Special Military Operation” and the start of a full fledged war between NATO and Russia.
If you are interested in some of the “scholarship” on ending wars, I am providing links to some academic efforts on this subject below. I do not endorse or agree with some of the conclusions, but I thought it would be useful grist for those who wish to delve deeper into the subject.
Have to find a way that both sides can exit with some dignity.
This is the kind of thing Trump would have been really good doing.
But of course the powers that be can’t have that, anything short of Moscow getting nuked and Trump would still be accused of being Putin’s best pal.
War? Huh?
What war?
When we stop paying the salaries and pensions of Ukraine government officials. That’s when. Until then we just get 50,000 people killed every month by paying for it.
Exposure of Zelensky being a criminal and the money-laundering through Ukraine revealed in full, sparing none.
It ends with the Biden Crime Family and the Military Industrial Complex much richer. Who gives a damn about Ukrainian lives?
It will end with America bankrupt and our military’s ammo supplies empty. All as planed by the globalists!
The war ends when Victoria Nuland and John Bolton retire.
Glorious victory for Mother Russia, da!!
Shots of Stoli on me Komrade!!
Dear Mr. Dfwgator, you hit the ball out of the park.
Negotiated Settlement - in Russia’s favor. Ukraine will eventually run out of other people’s money.
He's an evil little man. May he fall into the hands of Erdogan's security services, and take the Midnight Express to Istanbul.
Anyone who thinks that Russia is not right now doing all it can do to win is delusional.
It will end in 18-20 years, after our pentagon and CIA force another far away multi-billion dollar money laundering scheme/war on the US tax payer.
From Russia’s perspective the military operation in Ukraine is not a war. War means destroying the enemy — physically, materially and politically. Despite the claims from Western propaganda, Russia has shied away from inflicting mass civilian casualties. Russia has not tried to destroy Western ISR platforms, Ukrainian government infrastructure or Ukrainian political officials. In short, Russia has only played a few of the military cards it holds. Going to war means you go all in.
Moscow would gladly accomplish all of the above, (to a much greater degree than they already have), but their incompetent military hasn't been able to without crossing the nuclear weapons line.
It will end with the irreplaceable loss of both Ukraine’s and Russia’s genetic best. Neither, given the losses suffered from 1914-1945, could not afford further such losses. These two countries before the war were fiercely nationalistic and patriotic. Each were proud of their culture and heritage. After this war, both will be pliable cogs in the new globalist world. This is exactly what the globalists wanted and were given by Putin’d catastrophic, disastrous decision to go to war, shed so much blood and sow so much destruction.
I have to hand it to the Russia propagandists, they don’t let silly things like consistency get in their way. They’ll brag of carpet bombing civilians one day, and claim Russia is “holding back” the next.
A stalemate about where they are now, with Ukraine in a much weaker position than they were before the Russian invasion.
Badly.
Eventually, one way or the other Zelensky will get taken out, either he flees to some remote location and seeks asylum, lives the rest of his life in luxury with money he siphons off, Russia could take him out at some point, or the Ukrainian people will get tired of the slaughter and take him out then negotiate a settlement which will be on Russia’s terms.
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