Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[JonPreston]

Truth from the Moon

June 05, 2023

Ukraine Launches Its Counterattack

The long announced Ukrainian counter offensive has started. New Ukrainian units, never seen before, have come to the front. 

The attack was launched by Ukraine for political reasons under pressure from its 'western' sponsors. Militarily it is unlikely to become successful but it will eat away at whatever is left of Ukraine's military capabilities.

Attacks happened all around the front. In the north towards Belgograd, to the east and, with the most forces, towards the south. There was so far little to no success in any of the attacks.

The daily report by the Russian Ministry of Defense list as Ukrainian losses over the last 24 hours 910 soldiers, 16 tanks, 33 armored combat vehicles/infantry fighting vehicle and some 30 trucks.

So far only the most forward positions of Russian troops have been attacked. There are two to three well organized defense lines behind those. The Russians can fall back whenever needed and let the artillery and air force destroy their oncoming enemies.

As I wrote previously about any attacks in the direction of Tokmak and Melitopol:

From the point of strategic value the chosen target is the right one. However, it is also the one where the Russian military has prepared its strongest defense lines.

Source: @Inkvisiit, Scribblemaps - bigger

In military books this is know as 'echeloned defense' with three lines of well prepared positions ten kilometer apart from each other. Each line consists of tank obstacles, mine belts, prepared anti-tank positions to monitor and counter potential breach attempts and well prepared artillery support from behind the next defense line.

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To crack such a nut without air support and without significant artillery advantage is nearly impossible.

There may still come larger attacks in other directions. But how many could there be?

As a former Swedish officer notes:

June 4th UkrAF scaled up offensive operations on the Southern Front, but the losses are too high for long time success. Earlier operations were mainly reconnaissance in force with platoon and company sized combat groups. Yesterday the Ukrainian forces seemed to be battalion sized combat groups. According to Russian MoD 8 UkrAF battalions was involved in offensive operations SE of Mala Tokmachka (1), at the Vremivka salient (2) and East of Vuhledar towards Velikonovoselovka (3). The fighting was intense, but on most places Ukrainian forces was turned back, mainly by intense Russian artillery and air attacks. On some places UkrAF succeeded in capturing a couple of hundred meters.
...
[If the Russian numbers are true], the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive looks very dim. This is even if we don't take into account the ongoing intense Russian air and artillery offensive against UkrAF troop concentrations, ammunition and fuel depots.

With losses of over 1000 KIA and WIA that means that a Ukrainian brigade of 4000 man loose at least 25 percent of its manpower. That's on the brink of making a brigade unusable. Two days fighting with such losses would destroy a brigade's battle capability. 24 days with such losses would in effect destroy the entire fist of 12 brigades UkrAF has gathered for the counteroffensive. With losses of around 12 brigades, 25 000 KIA/WIA, 250 tanks and 1000 IFVs/APCs all the strategic reserves UkrAF has built during the last 6 months would be gone. In exchange the Ukrainian side could have advanced maybe 10 km on some places or more generally 2-3 km along maybe half the southern front.

Once again, IF the Russian claims are true, RuAF must feel relieved and UkrAF very worried by the results of the fighting on the Southern front June 4th.

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I strongly suspect that the Russian military will let the Ukrainian attacks run their course to then launch its own larger scale attacks against weakened Ukrainian defenses.

Posted by b on June 5, 2023 at 13:04 UTC | Permalink

[PIF]

Officially, there is nothing happening in the Belgorod Oblast - Russian media silent.

[PIF]

Sorry but the UA is only conduction reconnaissance by force and other probing actions. Major offensive has not happened and UA troop location are still hidden. Keep holding your breath.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Gerasimov was not far from the front lines”

Moscow isn’t far from the front lines? Foreshadowing? Destiny? Fate?

“replacements run away.”

When pressed, many RuZZian Boys will run.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Ukraine Intensifies Attacks on Russian Frontline Positions”

“U.S. officials said there were signs that Ukraine may have begun its expected counteroffensive, but Kyiv remained silent about its strategy.”

“Ukrainian forces stepped up their artillery strikes and ground assaults in a flurry of offensive military activity that by Monday was raging along multiple sectors of the front line, American and Russian officials said.

Ukraine has remained silent about military operations after months of preparing for a major counteroffensive in the war. But the American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the surge in attacks was a possible indication that Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive against Russian forces had begun.

The officials based their assessment in part on information from U.S. military satellites, which detected an uptick in action from Ukrainian military positions. The satellites have infrared capabilities to track artillery fire and missile launches.”

https://archive.ph/SfWbw

[FtrPilot]

The Russian 2S1 Gvozdika was developed in Soviet Kharkiv, now in Ukraine.

2S1 Gvozdika's maximum firing range is 15.3 km (9.5 mi).

To support infantry, the 2S1 Gvozdika must be positioned much closer to the FEBA than 152mm howitzers... well within range of the FPV drones.

In the video link, the FPV drone attack is being monitored by another quad copter drone.

The big unknown is how are the drones locating the howitzers.

Perhaps, counter-battery radars are passing the firing location to the drones.

The drones proceed to the firing location and set up a grid search for the howitzer.

Once the howitzer is located, the FPV drones are launched.

[JonPreston]

Major offensive has not happened and UA troop location are still hidden

Link please.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenue Shrank by Over a Third in May”

“Russia’s oil and natural gas revenue fell by more than a third in May, hit by lower crude prices amid Western sanctions and reduced gas exports to Europe.”

[SpeedyInTexas]

Post 3.

“Yet the cream of Ukraine’s forces has not yet appeared on the battlefield.”

[BeauBo]

“I strongly suspect that the Russian military will let the Ukrainian attacks run their course”

I expect so as well.

Man, that is going to sting!

[JonPreston]

You didn’t finish the author’s comment, which doesn’t surprise me :)

[BeauBo]

“Major offensive has not happened”

There could also potentially be multiple planned axes of advance, which don’t necessarily start or run on the same schedule.

It is popcorn time... the excitement is going to build from here on out.

[dfwgator]

As if Ukraine is going to announce the date and time of the counter-offensive.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Sladkov says Ukraine is pressing on Russia’s flanks in Bakhmut, including shelling Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka south of Bakhmut (using UAVs for ISR and loitering munitions). He says Ukraine has infiltrated the SW corner of Bakhmut and is bringing armor.”

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665733468276379648

[SpeedyInTexas]

RuZZian comms went down...

“Khodakovsky and other Russian channels said that Russian communications went down before Ukraine’s assault yesterday. Kots also posted about Ukrainian EW jamming Russian comms.”

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665725383327580160

[FtrPilot]

The UK MoD assesses that “Ukraine has neutralised at least 90%” of Russia’s Shahed UAVs “mostly using its older and cheaper air defence weapons and with electronic jamming.

Below is a picture of 2 of Russia's Iranian Shahed UAVs.

What's unusual is that these UAVs crash landed in Russia. Amazing.

Perhaps the Freedom of Russia Legion has anti-drone EW systems in addition to FPV drones.

The ZSU 23-4 would be highly effective at shooting the Shahed UAVs down.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“During the battles for Mar’inka, a Russian T-90 tank hit a mine.”

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1665743892753383425

[PIF]

The big unknown is how are the drones locating the howitzers. Perhaps, counter-battery radars are passing the firing location to the drones. The drones proceed to the firing location and set up a grid search for the howitzer. Once the howitzer is located, the FPV drones are launched.
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Perhaps it is simpler than that:

Drones like the Orlan-10 are dedicated to search and find artillery targets, they then relay that GPS data back to the artillery unit and the operator pushes the button.

I’m sure the Ukrainians must have duplicated that system by now for their huge drone fleet. The search drone and the armed drone could be the same or one could accompany the other. Locating all elements of the enemy ( artillery tanks, troops, command posts, etc ) is likely done the same way by dedicated drone units.

The simpler the system, the better it works.

[Alas Babylon!]

So the UA has unliberated liberated Bakhmut, er, sorry, comrade, I mean Artemovsk?

[PIF]

Link is common sense. You’ll get the link when the actual offensive is underway, not before - these are just limited force attacks.