Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4156785/posts
Tomorrow, 31 May, is the last day with rain in the forecast for Melitopol, for the next two weeks.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 29, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army, The 2nd Best Army in Ukraine <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
[ Most Stupid Strike | Russians Try to Destroy Patriots With Rockets ... Doesn’t Work Well ... ]
••Day 460: May 29
Today Russian forces conducted a massive drone and missile strike.
The first stage of the operation actually began yesterday when Russians conducted a strike exclusively with drones.
The primary target of the strike became the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv, coincidentally during the official holiday when Ukrainian celebrate the day of the creation of the city.
Kyiv is also protected by a lot of Patriot systems, and many Russian sources speculated that the goal of the strike was to identify the position of Ukrainian air defense.
Even though Iranian Shahed combat UAVs do not have cameras, some Russian analysts mentioned that Russian forces recently modified the navigation system of these drones, which allows them now to not only track the position of the drone but also change the trajectory in real-time.
Given that Shahed drones have a range of up to 2500 km, theoretically, it allows the drone to fly in circles above a particular area until it is shot down.
And once Russian see that the drone was destroyed, they mark the area above which they lost the connection.
This is a doubtful strategy because Ukrainian forces figured out early on that the most effective weapon against targets that are flying at low altitudes is small arms.
We have already discussed the creation of mobile anti-drone units, however, Ukrainian General Staff reported that the old ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun turned out to work even better.
Ukrainian General Staff reported that during that night, Ukrainian defenders intercepted 58 out of 59 Shaheds.
Today at night, Russians conducted the second stage of their operation, where they targeted areas based on the previously gathered information.
Earlier, Ukrainian Intelligence noted that Russian started relocating their bombers from the northern bases towards the Caspian Sea, which was a strong indicator that they were preparing to launch missiles and gave Ukrainians some time to prepare.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russians carried out two massive air and missile strikes.
Russians reportedly launched 40 Shahed drones from the north and south, 40 cruise missiles from strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea, and 11 ballistic missiles Iskander.
All ballistic missiles targeted Kyiv, and it’s been speculated that they were used as the main weapon for destroying Patriot systems.
Russian sources reported that since Iskanders have a ballistic trajectory, the air defense can identify them only at the last minute.
However, all Iskanders were successfully shot down. Even though the threat above Kyiv was neutralized, local residents still suffered from the falling debris onto the city.
The remnants of Ukrainian and Russian rockets hit the streets and cars and damaged several roofs in the residential area.
Another big target became Odesa. Odesa is one of the main logistical hubs through which Ukrainians receive a lot of supplies from the West, so it has a lot of potential targets and is therefore protected with the best air defense systems available. The footage shows how Patriot rockets are sent into the sky, which is almost immediately followed by explosions of the targets.
Lastly, some Ukrainian sources reported that Russians managed to hit a Ukrainian airfield in the Khmelnytskyi region. In the aftermath of the strike, 5 aircraft were damaged [SU-24Ms], and a fire broke out in the warehouse with fuel.
This news came as a shock to many Ukrainian fighters that could not believe that high-ranking officers would allow to position the scarce Ukrainian aircraft not only on the open airfield, but also so close to each other.
Very frequently, Ukrainians would use regular roads to take off and land because such an approach significantly increases safety and virtually eliminates the possibility of retaliation, as Russians cannot monitor all highways all the time.
Later it turned out that the politician made a mistake, and the aircraft were actually the so-called donors, meaning that they were half disassembled and their remnants were used as repair parts. Even the Russian Ministry of defense said that they targeted aviation equipment.
This case once again raised the topic of the possible prohibition of politicians from leveraging their status of an official to deliver military news. Another such case today happened when one mayor analyzed the remnants of a rocket and published his assessment, which was incorrect information as to which rockets Russians used in a strike.
According to the updated information, Ukrainian Defense Forces intercepted 36 out of 40 cruise missiles and 30 out of 38 Shahed UAVs.
Russian sources reported that they destroyed all command posts, radar posts, warehouses with equipment, ammunition depots, and aviation equipment that they decided to destroy today.
Overall, Ukrainian forces have adapted to the strikes and managed to minimize the premature disclosure of their air defense positions during the primary strikes while also maximizing the protection of the biggest cities and logistical hubs during the decisive strikes.
Russian Air Force has gradually given up targeting critical energy infrastructure because the results did not justify the expenditure of missiles.
Right now, they are trying to destroy Patriot systems as soon as possible in an effort to prevent the US from sending more of them by showing that their equipment is immediately destroyed.
If previously, Russians were conducting massive missile and drone strikes every 2 or 3 weeks, then now they are doing it every 2 days.
Nonetheless, judging by the available footage, Patriot systems continue destroying Russian cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles.
••Still UA progresses on the southern Bakhmut flanks. Minor forces seen to show Regular Russian forces are being driven back. Additional RGF forces moved to Bakhmut reinforcing the 72nd Motorized Brigade: 9th Motorized Brigade, and the 4th Separate Motorized Brigade.
==
The Offensive:
The exact date has been decided on. Timing is important. UA Command already knows the date.
In preparation, the RGF barracks in Yurivka on the south coast was hit with 100 Russian troops killed.
==
Shebekino remains under constant attack.
Russian Legion of Freedom published photo of them in Russia, and we should expect some awesome news soon from them.
==
Sevastopol explosions - Russians claim just naval military exercises, but the ships remain in port and so that explanation is worthless.
==
Budanov announced revenge attacks on Russia for their attacks on civilians.
==
La Repubblica, an Italian daily general-interest newspaper, published an article saying the G7 countries are working to support Ukraine entrance into the EU, but not necessarily with all of its territory. The author lists the compromises Ukraine should do to join or to get more help from the allies. The article goes on to say that there allies will push Zelensky to negotiate with Putin.
Among the options for guarantees are negotiations on joining the European Union already at the upcoming EU summit in December. In this regard, the United States and the EU are inciting Zelensky to soften the conditions on which he is ready to negotiate.
According to the publication, the United States is set to end the conflict as soon as possible, because the war could become a hindrance for Biden in the elections in 2024.
I may say that I disagree with the author of this article. Zelensky will not speak with Putler.
==
The NYT claims the Putin losing internal support for the war, and the Russian Zed Patriots are pushing Putin to stop the was as soon as possible.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
••Ukraine responded with attack on Moscow. More than 10 drones were spotted in the elite district of Rublevka in Moscow. Where the Russian elite lives. Unfortunately most of the drones were shot down by the Russian air defence…
==
Russia deadlocked in Bakhmut - The Wall Street Journal. Analyzing the available facts, the publication states that the ten-month assault on Bakhmut led to the total exhaustion of the invaders and deprived them of the chance to move forward.
The WSJ added that “Russia is in a stalemate” and will soon lose the city it has acquired with meat storms.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
@erikkannike 4h
Follow-up on Baltic GPS jamming - now all around the border with Russia/Latvia in Pskov Oblast. [29.05]. First time such extensive jamming seen near the border and previous spillover almost definitely from there.
A show of force or real deterrent against drone strikes?
"Thank You to @pR13S7 for Updating me on this Type of Drone which appears to be called the (UJ-22) “Beaver” and was recently created by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a Long-Range “Kamikaze” Attack Drone...
I’m (@sentdefender) 100% sure this is the Drone that is seen in the Video which is Clear Evidence that this Attack was carried out by the Ukrainian Military."
@EuromaidanPR 2h
“At this moment, a flight of military transport aircraft of the russian Federation is taking place to the Bryansk region, russia.
The new shahed drones that were brought from Iran yesterday are delivering to the launch area.
Another sleepless night to come in Ukraine.”
Looks like Storm shadows are back in business.
@visegrad24 4h
“A Ukrainian missile strike on a Russian troop concentration in Mariupol today is said to have killed dozens of Russian soldiers.”
@Faytuks 2h
“Sen. Graham, after receiving a briefing on Ukraine’s military plans, says that Russia are in for a rude awakening when the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins
“In the coming days, you’re going to see a pretty impressive display of power by the Ukrainians””
"Russia have 13000 tanks"
"Sure, but how many radiators do they have?"
(Apparently, the radiators can be used as condensers in stills, to make bootleg alcohol)
https://kyivindependent.com/oil-refinery-in-russias-krasnodar-on-fire/
“A fire broke out at the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Krai region following what was likely a drone strike, the regional governor said overnight on May 31...
According to the Kremlin-affiliated Telegram news channel “Shot,” the drone strike occurred around 3 a.m. local time after which the refinery was “engulfed in flames and smoke.”
The Afipsky oil refinery is located in southern Russia, not far from the Novorossiisk Black Sea port.
The port of Novorossiysk was the headquarters for the Russian Black Sea fleet until the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Since then, Russia has transferred the headquarters to the occupied port city of Sevastopol.
A large fire also occurred on May 28 at the Ilsky Oil Refinery, located some 55 kilometers northeast of Novorossiysk. Local officials claimed the fire was also caused by a drone strike.
There have been an increasing number of reports about attacks on railway networks and oil refineries within Russian territory in recent weeks.
The drone attacks were also reported in several Russian regions on May 27, including the oil unit of the Druzhba pipeline refinery in Russia’s Tver region.”
The South Korean Ministry of National Defense has announced that the “Projectile” launched by North Korea today which was assumed to be a Military Spy Satellite appeared to have “Broke-Up” on Radar before it reached a High-Altitude...
The North Korean Government has announced in a “Rare Statement” that the Rocket launched earlier today which was reportedly carrying a Military Spy Satellite suffered a “Catastrophic Accident” causing it to Crash into the Ocean; however the National Aerospace Development Administration was prepared for this Situation and will launch a 2nd Rocket soon...
Imagine launching a “Super Top Secret Spy Satellite” and the Rocket carrying it Immediately Malfunctions and then the Satellite is Captured by your Arch-Enemy...
@joshjonsmith 2h
Photos of what South Korea says are likely part of the failed North Korean space launch vehicle fired today
